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gardenmom5

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I have lived through Swine Flu in the 70;s, SARS, Swine flu again, Ebola, etc.  Nothing has been as widespreading around the world and dangerous as this.  Yes, Ebola kills more people- many more.  But the risk is limited generally to people in certain African countries with low levels of health care, superstitious practices relating to health care and burial that enable the virus to spread faster and to more people. and unsafe eating practices.  

The unsafe eating practices is probably what started the COV19 too.  They are fairly sure it came from bats and bats were being sold as food items at the outdoor market where they sold all sorts of animals that should not be consumed, both for sanitary reasons and also for ensuring survival of various species.  

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Takeaways from the WHO report. Here's an interview with Bruce Aylward.

It's not as transmissible as flu. Staying apart actually helps. So with containment, the numbers probably won't go as wild as that 1918 flu.

In China, they had large, free fever hospitals set up just to test for the virus among people with symptoms. They were only finding that about half of people with symptoms even had it. This is part of why they think it is NOT an iceberg situation and that the numbers more or less reflect the reality of the virus.

So that means the mortality numbers they are talking about are probably correct. And it really is hard on the elderly and sparing the young.

China is using really sophisticated medicine and providing it for free in order to ventilate and also oxygenating blood cells. They're getting better at keeping people alive and that's why mortality rates for the rest of China are lower. Getting that care (especially for free) in other places is not so likely.

 

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Prep ideas:

Frozen veggies we don't typically stock, both green and orange. The only green veggies in my freezer are broccoli and green beans, and I never buy frozen orange veg, but if we were trying to avoid unnecessary errands I'd want things like frozen kale, zucchini, carrots and butternut squash.

Extra printer paper, toner, office supplies to work from home for a while.

Some fun stuff--a couple 1000 piece puzzles for my girls.

Updating our iPhones, scheduling haircuts and poodle grooming now.

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On 2/29/2020 at 4:59 PM, Kassia said:

My son works for a company that doesn't give sick days so employees (including my son) frequently come in sick so they don't have to use up their vacation days.  I hope they change their policy.  There are over 1000 people working there.  

 

 

My company used to give 2 weeks vacation and 1 week sick leave.

A few years ago they combined them and give 3 weeks leave time you can use for EITHER Vacation of sick. So on paper "There is no sick time" -- but in reality, there is.

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9 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

 

My company used to give 2 weeks vacation and 1 week sick leave.

A few years ago they combined them and give 3 weeks leave time you can use for EITHER Vacation of sick. So on paper "There is no sick time" -- but in reality, there is.

 

My son has two weeks vacation time with no sick time, but has the option of buying another week of vacation time (which he does since he travels a lot).  

 

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@Pen I read Trevor Bedford's Twitter where he thinks doubling time is 6.1 days. I'm going with that right now because 3 days freaks me out a bit.

@Penguin I'm hoping my college dorm kid will be ok w/the wipes she already has (norovirus went through her college in the fall so she has regular antibacterial wipes plus bleach wipes from norovirus time). She won't take vitamins, IMO, so I didn't send them. I'm mostly planning on her university community to keep food going for them & her age/health to keep her from getting too sick.

Much thanks for the WHO report summary. I think there will be a spike in cases whenever tests are administered because it is likely there are more cases out there we just don't know about. I'm hopeful that local & timely testing will be available soon. The sooner someone is diagnosed, those better quarantine procedures wcan be implemented to slow the spread.

Slow the spread. Wash your hands. Slow the spread. Wash your hands.

ETA:  on sanitizing mail (not hands!), I have been reading about UVC light.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3925713/

Unfortunately, the UV light I have is not the right kind.

Edited by RootAnn
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8 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

@Pen I read Trevor Bedford's Twitter where he thinks doubling time is 6.1 days. I'm going with that right now because 3 days freaks me out a bit.

 

That’s fine.  I’ve seen estimates all the way as long as 9 days of that makes you feel better 🙂 !

It isn’t really a static intrinsic aspect of the virus, but rather virus plus conditions including what the host population does that will tend to speed it up or slow it down

 

 

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https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/hundreds-of-oregonians-likely-infected-with-coronavirus-state-health-officer-says.html

The advance of coronavirus to a remote town more than 200 miles from Portland means the virus “is fairly widespread in our community,” but not broad enough to start aggressive containment, Oregon’s top medical officer said Monday.

Oregon may now have 300 to 500 Oregonians who are or were unknowingly carrying the coronavirus, Dr. Dean Sidelinger, the state health officer and epidemiologist, acknowledged as officials announced the state’s third presumed coronavirus case. It’s not clear how the Umatilla County resident, a casino worker, contracted the disease.

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On 3/1/2020 at 11:33 AM, Sneezyone said:

Now that it’s confirmed the virus has been circulating in WA for six weeks, and until they close the schools, wouldn’t it be advisable to remind children heading off to school tomorrow about hygiene? Cough into an elbow. Attach a small bottle of hand sanitizer to an elastic wristlet or belt loop as a reminder, include a note about using hand sanitizer in their lunch bag, etc. They can carry and transmit without ever being very ill. School staff, parents and grandparents at home may not be as lucky.

 

We are in Texas. In my daughter's elementary school, they have evidently been talking to them about not touching the face, coughing into elbows, etc -- reiterating. But haven't mentioned Coronavirus (Or at least my daughter didn't know the term when I mentioned it). At the middle school level they have been discussing it more.

 

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On 3/1/2020 at 11:48 AM, Terabith said:

For those of us who have kids in school, I am not sure how practical it is to shut down.  And nobody washes hands at school.  Time isn’t allocated for it, and often bathrooms around here (southwest Virginia) don’t have soap.  Reminding them to use hand sanitizer is probably better than nothing, but I feel pessimistic about our chances.  

 

The boys bathrooms in the middle school here does not have soap because it was making its way onto the floor and being used for "pranks" and such instead of to wash hands.

In the elementary school the hand washing area is outside in the hallway so teachers can monitor the situation better. (And many kids can wash hands at once -- it's a "trough" with multiple spigots that all spray water at once)

 

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@Pen 

https://katu.com/news/local/public-schools-prep-now-to-prevent-spread-of-coronavirus-in-oregon

“Eugene 4J also addressed the question of school closures. A school in Lake Oswego, Oregon, and 11 in Washington state have closed or are closed as a result of concerns about COVID-19. A school in Umatilla County is disinfecting its gym after someone who attended a game there Saturday was diagnosed with coronavirus.

"We have no current plans to close any school. If public health officials recommend a temporary school closure, we will communicate directly to families including by email, phone and text messages," Eugene 4J says on its website. "Please note that if a school closure became necessary, the district would not be able to provide supervision of students. Now is a good time to make plans for childcare, just in case."

Schools in Cottage Grove also alerted the public to use caution - and be prepared.

"At this point in time, we are operating South Lane Schools as usual. We will notify you if we find it necessary to take more precautionary measures," the district said in a statement.”

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Although I homeschool my daughter, who is a seventh grader now, she has gone to summer school twice. Last summer I found out that the school does not have students wash their hands before lunch. I just about fell over. I made sure she had hand sanitizing wipes after that...not that she used them much. 😒 What kind of example is that for students? To teach them that they should wash their hands before eating but then not allow them to do it? And seriously, it's summer school, they can take time to wash hands.

On 3/1/2020 at 11:48 AM, Terabith said:

For those of us who have kids in school, I am not sure how practical it is to shut down.  And nobody washes hands at school.  Time isn’t allocated for it, and often bathrooms around here (southwest Virginia) don’t have soap.  Reminding them to use hand sanitizer is probably better than nothing, but I feel pessimistic about our chances.  

 

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@AnotherE and everyone else in Washington 

https://www.doh.wa.gov/emergencies/coronavirus

  • Stay informed about local COVID-19 activity through the Department of Health website: doh.wa.gov/coronavirus and be aware of any signs that people in your community are getting sick. For example, watch for school dismissals or closures.
  • Avoid contact with people who are sick. Cover your coughs and sneezes with a tissue, and wash your hands often with soap or water. Don’t share personal items and clean frequently touched surfaces with soap and water.
  • If you are sick, stay home. When seeking medical care, wear a facemask and keep your distance from others. If someone in your house is sick, stay home to avoid unknowingly spreading the virus to others.
  • Do not attend large events, such as sporting events, conferences, or other community events if you are sick, do not feel well, or someone in your home is sick. If you aren’t sick, consider your risk of getting COVID-19 at the event before you go. 
  • Discourage your children from gathering with others after school unless it is a small group. If any of the children show symptoms of COVID-19, separate them from others immediately.
  • Watch your children for symptoms of COVID-19. Notify your children’s child care facility or school if they are sick and get any classroom assignments or activities they can do from home.
  • Set up a separate room for sick household members. Clean the room regularly and make sure they have clean disposable facemasks to use.
  • Check in with family and friends who live alone—especially those with chronic diseases. If you live alone, ask your friends and family to check in with you if you become sick.”
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Dd13 is in school now, and early this winter kids in her class were dropping like flies with especially nasty respiratory and GI bugs. A few people were even hospitalized, so I contacted the principal and her two main teachers to ask them to talk with the kids about the importance of handwashing and not sharing water bottles, and to give them time to wash hands before lunch.

Nope, they said there's no way to give all students access to sinks before lunch. Yesterday dd came home saying they've changed the schedule to allow handwashing before lunch. Wish it didn't take a pandemic to get schools to make time for basic hygiene.

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21 minutes ago, Penguin said:

@Pen Thank you for your detailed comments on my post. They were much appreciated. 

 

You’re welcome! I think it helped me to think through things related to my own ya and 80s yo mother too.  I hope weird autocorrects like finite for fomite were clear enough as to meaning! 

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1 hour ago, prairiewindmomma said:

John Campbell's daily video: 

 

 

Yay! Someone else has seen Dr John

(I learned recently he is a PhD doctor not MD doctor— either way I think he is very good at summarizing what’s happening, explaining, and I also like his dry humor that sometimes emerges)

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First positive case in North Carolina (Wake County). Note they aren't calling it "confirmed" yet because the CDC hasn't confirmed it. But . . . a positive test. The person is self quarantining. Exposure occurred at the nursing home near Seattle. There seems to be little info at this point, but I'm assuming the person flew back to NC from Seattle, so potentially infected others on a plane.

Edited by Pawz4me
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https://abcnews.go.com/International/coronavirus-outbreak-slows-china-grows-world/story?id=69352520

“2:40 p.m. HHS considering emergency Medicare reimbursements for uninsured patients

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is in discussions about using an emergency provision to reimburse uninsured patients or providers treating uninsured patients impacted by the coronavirus, HHS Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Robert Kadlec told lawmakers Tuesday.

The program, the National Disaster Medical System, is typically used for natural disasters to supplement local medical systems, but it can be used to reimburse providers 110% of Medicare rates, Kadlac said.”

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Just now, Arcadia said:


https://abcnews.go.com/International/coronavirus-outbreak-slows-china-grows-world/story?id=69352520

“2:40 p.m. HHS considering emergency Medicare reimbursements for uninsured patients

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is in discussions about using an emergency provision to reimburse uninsured patients or providers treating uninsured patients impacted by the coronavirus, HHS Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response Robert Kadlec told lawmakers Tuesday.

The program, the National Disaster Medical System, is typically used for natural disasters to supplement local medical systems, but it can be used to reimburse providers 110% of Medicare rates, Kadlac said.”

I am glad to see that, and heard that NY is saying the uninsured will be taken care of.

Of course, I’m insured and my last ER visit came to $2500...

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https://abcnews.go.com/International/coronavirus-outbreak-slows-china-grows-world/story?id=69352520
“2:35 p.m. Florida confirms presumptive case as positive

A presumptive positive case of coronavirus in the state of Florida has been confirmed, said Gov. Ron DeSantis.

The woman is a California resident who tested presumptive positive after traveling to Italy with her sister, who was confirmed by the CDC as one of two positive cases in Hillsborough County on Monday.

Since she is a California resident, the CDC will technically list her case under that state, but she is currently under self-isolation in Florida, DeSantis said.”

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   @Pen Both Dh and I have been reading the U.K. papers pretty intently and have not seen a master plan for the NHS beyond a statement a few days ago that if it got bad priority would have to be given to younger patients.  The most alarmist real life friend I have is there and happens to work for the NHS at a hospice.  She plans for everything and is remarkably calm.  A few emails have been trickling in , regarding us returning now to the U.K.  People want us back......that said Dh has been on the council until very recently and is a good person to have doing the planning for these things.  They want him there..........Honestly we would be  fine with going back.  Instead Dh is prepping the neighbors here as much as they are willing.😉  Our kids have the semester to finish here (Florida] and I now have life here prepped as much as it can be.  
 

Random thoughts for girl college students.......talked to dd about tying her hair back in public(really long hair) and to consider cutting her nails.  They are quite long, all hers btw.  Beautiful germ catchers.

My kids have also had another Conversation with us about what to do if both mom and dad die.  Not pleasant but they need to know basic plans and locations of assets.  This is being said not because I or Dh are particularly high risk but because you never know.  My kids are young adults .

@Penguin I think your plans are good.  If your mom does get sick her care will likely be better with you so improved survival chance imo.

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12 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

Not sure if the CDC’s recommendations have been shared yet: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/get-your-household-ready-for-COVID-19.html

This is so frustrating! Why are they recommending sick people wear a mask (mentioned in multiple lists on the CDC site) when they know that there are NO masks to be found! Shelves have been empty of face masks at ALL stores in my area for nearly a month. They have all been snapped up by unscrupulous e-bay and Amazon sellers, or grabbed to be shipped to families in China. Great job, CDC! Thanks for the worthless advice!

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I don't so much care if they release the numbers, I do care that the tests are run. Unfortunately, I don't get the impression that is the case. Generally, the number of deaths compared to the number of positives should about equal the estimated death rate of 2%. This number is way off for the US and combined with the number of community transmitted cases they have found it looks rather grim. There is no way to contain this at all without testing/contact tracing and without information people can't make good decisions.

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I saw my asthma doctor today and am not reassured at all. 

He hadn’t been closely following the news on covid yet because he just got home from an overseas trip. He’s trying to catch up, but said as he went through immigration in a major US airport nobody was screening people coming through. Immigration did not ask where he’d been before letting him through and didn’t screen for symptoms. This was 2 days ago!  

He said he tried to get a mask to be proactive, just in case he had something, but couldn’t find one anywhere. He’s unmasked, seeing patients with vulnerable preexisting conditions. 
 

He was concerned that nurses wouldn’t show up to work if this spreads and they can’t access masks.

He wasn’t familiar with the recommendation to avoid steroids with covid but said it’s probably because it lowers the immune system generally. Still, he said for asthma patients with inflamed airways he wouldn’t hesitate to prescribe steroids because you have to get the inflammation down. He would worry about the side effects later. 
 


 

 

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4 minutes ago, Paige said:

I’m trying to ignore the fact that I was just examined by a guy who was in an international airport 2 days ago. 

Yeah. I was thinking this same thing... Did he tell you where he overseas he had been?

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1 hour ago, Pawz4me said:

First positive case in North Carolina (Wake County). Note they aren't calling it "confirmed" yet because the CDC hasn't confirmed it. But . . . a positive test. The person is self quarantining. Exposure occurred at the nursing home near Seattle. There seems to be little info at this point, but I'm assuming the person flew back to NC from Seattle, so potentially infected others on a plane.

I just saw this. I have to admit: both of my DD's are headed to Raleigh for a huge, multi-church youth retreat this weekend. I've got the faintest of uneasy twinges about it now...

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13 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Yeah. I was thinking this same thing... Did he tell you where he overseas he had been?

No. I didn't want to know, but I generally really like him so I trust he would have been more cautious if he was in a hot zone. That's what I choose to believe, at least. 

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@Paige @Pen @MEmama

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200303_20/
“Japanese doctors say an asthma drug appears to be effective in reducing symptoms of coronavirus patients who developed pneumonia.

A medical team at Ashigarakami hospital in Kanagawa Prefecture treated patients who became ill aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship. They have announced the results of their study on the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases' website.

Their report says three patients were given an asthma drug called Ciclesonide, a steroid inhalant to suppress the immune system.

The medical team said the patients were all over 65 years of age and had oxygen support, but were not in serious condition.
The research shows that the patients were given Ciclesonide on February 20 and their health improved in about two days. A 73-year-old woman is said to have been discharged.

The doctors say they used the drug after receiving information about it from the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.

They say the drug reaches the lungs where the virus is multiplying so it could be effective in reducing inflammation there.

The medical team plans to investigate the effectiveness of the treatment jointly with other medical institutions because they treated only a small number of patients.”

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From Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-02/u-s-deaths-rise-to-six-treatments-seen-in-months-virus-update

“FDA on Watch for Drug Shortages From India (11:10 a.m. NY)

U.S. health regulators are watching for potential drug shortages after India restricted the export of some raw pharmaceutical ingredients, a move that has potential to disrupt the global supply chain of drugs manufactured around the world.

Earlier Tuesday, India said it would limit export of some common medicines as concerns grow over shortages of chemical ingredients. Many manufacturers in China are shut due to the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Though India is the source of about 20% of the world’s generic-drug supply, the country is dependent on China for about 66% of the chemical components needed to make them. India wants to ensure that there are enough supplies at home for its citizens.”

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49 minutes ago, I talk to the trees said:

This is so frustrating! Why are they recommending sick people wear a mask (mentioned in multiple lists on the CDC site) when they know that there are NO masks to be found! Shelves have been empty of face masks at ALL stores in my area for nearly a month. They have all been snapped up by unscrupulous e-bay and Amazon sellers, or grabbed to be shipped to families in China. Great job, CDC! Thanks for the worthless advice!

 

Yep. I sent 2 N95s to my mom for her bestie who is medically fragile along with a couple spares. I have a total of 6 left of the 10 I bought and I am saving them for my immediate family. Those were hard to come by and I started looking earlier than most. Meanwhile...randos on FB...MASKS ARE USELESS! FLU IS COMPARABLE! Uh huh. Darwin at work again.

Edited by Sneezyone
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8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

BNO.  U.S. death toll from coronavirus rises to 8 after another nursing home resident who died on February 26 was found to have been infected


It’s 9 fatalities 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/coronavirus-outbreak-slows-china-grows-world/story?id=69352520 (ETA: eastern time)

“2:45 p.m. 9th death from virus confirmed in US

Health officials in King County in Seattle has reported an ninth death in the U.S. from the coronavirus, according to a statement.

The patient, who is in her 80s, died at her family home on Feb. 26, officials said.

County officials also confirmed an additional seven cases of the virus, bringing the total confirmed cases to 21, which includes the patients who died.

Eight of the patients who died are from King County, one is from neighboring Snohomish County, which is reporting six total confirmed cases.

4:30 p.m. Kirkland Washington first responders show flu-like symptoms

Twelve of 30 firefighters and police officers in Kirkland, Washington, who were quarantined after potential or direct exposure to COVID-19 are showing flu-like symptoms, city officials confirmed.

One firefighter was released from being quarantined at a fire station after waiting for 14 days, officials said.

Among the remaining 29 first responders, 19 confirmed they had direct exposure to the virus while responding to calls at a care facility.”

 

Edited by Arcadia
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1st cases

in Chile, North Carolina US,(https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1234939044359962625/photo/2), Argentina, Gibraltar, Ukraine

1st death in Spain - Valencia, Spain (happened on the 13th but they just realised it was a COVID19)

NHS uk declares a level 4 health incident - highest level of emergency

UAE close all schools for a week

Italy has 466 new cases, 27 new deaths (total 2502 and 79)

WHO on the falling number of cases in China: "We questioned these numbers while we were in China, we scrutinized this data, and we believe that this decline is real."  Interestingly people reporting from inside China believe this as well due to a slow build up on the economy and relaxing of restrictions.  The BBC correspondent said he thought while the numbers may not be perfectly accurate the overall trends probably are)

 

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Of the last two care home deaths, one was 80, one was in his 50s

4 minutes ago, Arcadia said:


It’s 9 fatalities 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/coronavirus-outbreak-slows-china-grows-world/story?id=69352520 (ETA: eastern time)

“2:45 p.m. 9th death from virus confirmed in US

Health officials in King County in Seattle has reported an ninth death in the U.S. from the coronavirus, according to a statement.

The patient, who is in her 80s, died at her family home on Feb. 26, officials said.

County officials also confirmed an additional seven cases of the virus, bringing the total confirmed cases to 21, which includes the patients who died.

Eight of the patients who died are from King County, one is from neighboring Snohomish County, which is reporting six total confirmed cases.

4:30 p.m. Kirkland Washington first responders show flu-like symptoms

Twelve of 30 firefighters and police officers in Kirkland, Washington, who were quarantined after potential or direct exposure to COVID-19 are showing flu-like symptoms, city officials confirmed.

One firefighter was released from being quarantined at a fire station after waiting for 14 days, officials said.

Among the remaining 29 first responders, 19 confirmed they had direct exposure to the virus while responding to calls at a care facility.”

 

thanks

i thought the last was more information on the two before but turns out it was another case altogether 

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8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

i thought the last was more information on the two before but turns out it was another case altogether 


The last one was confusing because the person has already passed on Feb 26. 
 

What I do worry about is firefighters getting quarantined or ill during wildfire season. California is in drought already and I just realized there is a drought.gov website 

https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/california (There is a pull down tab in link to choose another state)

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20 minutes ago, Arcadia said:


It’s 9 fatalities 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/coronavirus-outbreak-slows-china-grows-world/story?id=69352520 (ETA: eastern time)

“2:45 p.m. 9th death from virus confirmed in US

Health officials in King County in Seattle has reported an ninth death in the U.S. from the coronavirus, according to a statement.

The patient, who is in her 80s, died at her family home on Feb. 26, officials said.

County officials also confirmed an additional seven cases of the virus, bringing the total confirmed cases to 21, which includes the patients who died.

Eight of the patients who died are from King County, one is from neighboring Snohomish County, which is reporting six total confirmed cases.

4:30 p.m. Kirkland Washington first responders show flu-like symptoms

Twelve of 30 firefighters and police officers in Kirkland, Washington, who were quarantined after potential or direct exposure to COVID-19 are showing flu-like symptoms, city officials confirmed.

One firefighter was released from being quarantined at a fire station after waiting for 14 days, officials said.

Among the remaining 29 first responders, 19 confirmed they had direct exposure to the virus while responding to calls at a care facility.”

 

and of those nine, most of them were associated with the care home.  incl. the patient who is now considered the first fatality.   he died at harborview - which is a level one regional trauma center and they get patients from the entire northwest and Alaska.  no one who cared for him knew he had covid19- and we have no idea if they were treating him as a highly contagious patient (gowns, gloves, face masks) - and then disinfecting his room after he died.

I'm afraid we're going to start seeing cases linked to harborview.

of the first responders with contact with life-care and in quarantine - a dozen are now symptomatic of "something".

eta: it's now 19 are symptomatic. (scroll to the very bottom.)

Edited by gardenmom5
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1 minute ago, Arcadia said:


The last one was confusing because the person has already passed on Feb 26. 
 

What I do worry about is firefighters getting quarantined or ill during wildfire season. California is in drought already and I just realized there is a drought.gov website 

https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/california (There is a pull down tab in link to choose another state)

Oh man!  Yeah that sucks

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