Guinevere Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 If you are on the east coast, keep your eye on Hurricane Irma. It is still far out to sea, but they are predicting it will be a major storm, maybe even a Cat 4. They said they will know in about a week where it is headed. If you haven't prepared, now would be a good time to figure out your plans. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heartlikealion Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 ugh 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elizabeth86 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Goodness. Stay safe! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guinevere Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 The guesses are still very broad. Gulf Coast, Florida, and OBX have all been mentioned. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RegGuheert Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 (edited) Note that some are claiming we may have gasoline shortages in TX before Labor Day, so you may want to purchase gasoline now. I'm wondering what kind of shortages we are facing on the East Coast, regardless of what this new hurricane does. Here's the cone for Irma. It's already a powerful hurricane. Who knows where it might end up? Edited August 31, 2017 by RegGuheert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlktwins Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Oh boy! I'm in VA near the East Coast, but please don't let this go to the Gulf!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 ladybugs Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Oh my! That is too far out for me to worry about. Even with my mom ON the beach in a single family home that is one story, in Florida. At this point it has just as much chance of blowing out to sea as it does of hitting the US. I always find it amazing that the forecasters can't tell me if it is going to rain this afternoon yet can tell me where a hurricane is going to be in 10 days. LOL 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scbusf Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Ugh. I'm in Virginia Beach. I really don't want it to come here. But I really can't imagine what will happen if it goes to the Gulf. No good options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guinevere Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 It is intensifying rapidly. At first, they said it might be a hurricane by tomorrow morning. This afternoon it was a 2, and now it is a 3. They are expecting it to continue to intensify, and probably reach Cat 5. Whether or not it remains that large by the time it gets closer is uncertain. The Weather Channel is telling the people of Puerto Rico and surrounding areas to begin preparations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Note that some are claiming we may have gasoline shortages in TX before Labor Day, so you may want to purchase gasoline now. I'm wondering what kind of shortages we are facing on the East Coast, regardless of what this new hurricane does. Here's the cone for Irma. It's already a powerful hurricane. Who knows where it might end up? http://www.wfaa.com/mobile/article/news/local/texas-news/railroad-commissioner-theres-no-fuel-crisis-in-texas/287-469658632 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carrie12345 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 My gas in PA has gone up 30 cents in the past 2 or 3 days. I've been topping off every outing. Dh is supposed to fill a few containers tonight. He doesn't drive anywhere near as much as he used to, but he's braced to travel for work for Irma, wherever she lands. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historically accurate Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 My grandmother's name was Irma Harvey; it's a little weird to have her names all over the news. Here's hoping Hurricane Irma is much lighter than expected for everyone. 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaillardia Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Here is the news on the "gas shortage" http://www.wfaa.com/news/local/texas-news/texas-commissioner-dont-panic-about-gas/469658632 But I also heard people are panicking locally about there being enough bottled water. (roll eyes) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MommyLiberty5013 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just watched a video about it on weather.com. They don't even know if it will hit the US at all. It's too soon to tell. But they said it was odd for a hurricane to form so strongly this far out at sea this early on in its life. BUT I strongly encourage people to prep anyways, even if it misses us because prepping is good. We should keep our eyes on this for sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guinevere Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just watched a video about it on weather.com. They don't even know if it will hit the US at all. It's too soon to tell. But they said it was odd for a hurricane to form so strongly this far out at sea this early on in its life. BUT I strongly encourage people to prep anyways, even if it misses us because prepping is good. We should keep our eyes on this for sure! Right. This is when we have time, and there is plenty at the stores. So do it now. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RegGuheert Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 (edited) Shouting matches punctuate growing lines at San Antonio gas stations, 45 without fuel: GasBuddy, a gas price tracking firm, reports 45 stations in San Antonio were without fuel by 4:30 p.m., up from seven at 1 p.m. When the public officials come out proclaiming that there is no gas shortage, that should give you an idea of what might be coming. We'll see how things play out, but I expect there may be shortages that ripple up the East Coast as these refinery outages play out. Edited August 31, 2017 by RegGuheert 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaillardia Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Shouting matches punctuate growing lines at San Antonio gas stations, 45 without fuel: When the public officials come out proclaiming that there is no gas shortage, that should give you an idea of what might be coming. We'll see how things play out, but I expect there may be shortages that ripple up the East Coast as these refinery outages play out. But they're saying the shortage was created because people made an assumption and hurriedly got gas, creating long lines, filling their tanks and extra cans, and causing gas stations to run out of fuel. When they are scheduled for deliveries from tankers every 3-4 days or whatever but have supplies run out...well... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prairiewindmomma Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 (edited) Right, but the problem is that those deliveries didn't happen. Let's say that, conveniently, people were not buying gas for Labor Day excursions.....and the usual Thursday people went to buy gas this morning, and couldn't because Thursday deliveries didn't happen to Exxon or 7-11 or Quik Trip stations. (This is what actually happened.) So, they went to Valero instead. You already have triple the demand at Valero than you normally would. They take a hit. Valero sells out. Everybody is still out of gas....because there are no deliveries happening. My local gas stations are all high volume stations....with normal daily deliveries.....that aren't happening. The real problem with the bank runs in the 1930s was that the banks flat out didn't have the money that their depositors had made. Bad loans were every bit as much of the problem as the fact that people were trying to cash out. Let's face it, in a true crisis with multiple bank failures, the FDIC isn't going to be able to make everybody whole. It's the confidence in the system that makes the current banking system work. People right now don't have confidence that they will have adequate gasoline to get to work Monday. If they currently are low in the tank, I think they are rightfully worried. They are acting rationally to try to fill up and look out for their individual interest---even at the detriment of the intangible common good. As to those acting "irrationally" by hoarding gas (and I'm saying this as a person who is walking tomorrow in August in South Texas because there was no gasoline for dh to buy on his normal fill up day), I think that if it looks like there will be no gas for the next week, and you will need gas in the next week----buying it right now is not being irrational. Public officials are creating a vision with semantics, because none of them really want to say that the refueling isn't happening for a week....or potentially more. If they wanted to solve this problem, they should divert deliveries from other locations (right now the priority is Houston) and open up the strategic reserve. It's ok that they make a different decision---but the shaming about filling up now needs to stop. Edited September 1, 2017 by kbeal 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RegGuheert Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 But they're saying the shortage was created because people made an assumption and hurriedly got gas, creating long lines, filling their tanks and extra cans, and causing gas stations to run out of fuel. When they are scheduled for deliveries from tankers every 3-4 days or whatever but have supplies run out...well...People didn't make an assumption. They know that about 15% of U.S. refining capacity is now shut down and the gas prices are shooting up. If they don't want people to rush to the pumps, why not just keep the prices where they were? We all know the answer to that question: the prices are going up because supply has dropped and they want to reduce demand to match. But people will try to beat the rapid price rise. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
importswim Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Dh is convinced it's coming to the Panhandle. We hate "I" named storms here! I needed to get my hurricane evac box ready anyway. Thanks for the PSA! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheres Toto Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 The gas station dh drives by going to work, prices went up 50 cents a gallon since yesterday, 20 cents overnight then 30 cents more today. They are talking about Irma on the news around here, saying if it comes our way the impact will be late next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butter Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 I always find it amazing that the forecasters can't tell me if it is going to rain this afternoon yet can tell me where a hurricane is going to be in 10 days. LOL To be honest, they can't. The cone changes constantly. There are two different models and they currently have Irma doing two completely different things. What they are saying it'll do today is different from what they said yesterday. It's so far out that it's literally an educated guess, but unlikely to be accurate in the long run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pawz4me Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Of course they aren't telling us what a hurricane will do in ten days. Weather is affected by too many variables to be able to do that. My guess is that most forecasters (rightly or wrongly) assume everyone knows that. My favorite local weather guy reiterates it over and over, bless his heart. What they're saying at any given point in time is that "based on current data this is kinda what we'd expect in five/seven/ten days." But of course "current data" usually changes at least a bit with each model run. Realistically, I think three days out is about as far as they can go on most things and be reasonably accurate. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guinevere Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 The fact remains, if you are anywhere where Irma could possibly come, and haven't made reasonable preparations, consider yourself warned. This is the opportunity you have to do something. Maybe it won't come, but if it does, then you won't be among the casualties. That's the benefit of these forecasts. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasider Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Most of the spaghetti models I see today keep it in the Atlantic rather than in the gulf. But those are only forecasts, educated guesses at best. Remember why hurricanes used to be labeled with only female names: they are impetuous, unpredictable forces prone to change on a dime. We have evacuated only to wake up the next morning and find the storm turned. We've done the same in reverse, not evacuate and taken a bumpy ride at home. But as said above, the upside of a general forecast is that it allows time to prepare and plan. To secure property and gather valuables. To stock up to shelter in place, to put the grab-and-go items in one convenient place. Anticipation is one of the bigger parts of the game. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lizzie in Ma Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Note that some are claiming we may have gasoline shortages in TX before Labor Day, so you may want to purchase gasoline now. I'm wondering what kind of shortages we are facing on the East Coast, regardless of what this new hurricane does. Here's the cone for Irma. It's already a powerful hurricane. Who knows where it might end up? We don't have gas shortages yet here but the price went up from $2.37 to $2.70 a gallon already and I'm guessing it's going to be worse before it's better! We keep a sharp eye on hurricane tracks, I work at an insurance adjusting office. ;) We have thought many times over the years that we should get a generator. But they are so seldom used. We fill up the spare gas cans for the cars as well as the chain saws, which are always needed for cleanup around here. We have a battery charger thing that will last about 5 days to keep the phones charged. We keep plastic jugs filled with water in the bottom layer of the chest freezer to use if the power goes out for the fridge and coolers. Candles and lanterns are always ready. Fortunately we have a propane stove so we can still cook when the power is out. I remember being without power for a long time after Hurricane Bob here. That was the longest I ever remember being without power, but it has been out for days and days since then with other storms. I hope everyone stays safe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valley Girl Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 People didn't make an assumption. They know that about 15% of U.S. refining capacity is now shut down and the gas prices are shooting up. If they don't want people to rush to the pumps, why not just keep the prices where they were? We all know the answer to that question: the prices are going up because supply has dropped and they want to reduce demand to match. But people will try to beat the rapid price rise. What also contributed to the assumption was some local media warning that gas would run out by the end of Labor Day weekend. I don't know how widespread that was, but even people who weren't putting two and two together on their own couldn't miss that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasider Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 (edited) NOAA spaghetti models today show less strings bearing back out to the Atlantic, making US landfall seem a higher possibility. Time will tell... Edited September 3, 2017 by Seasider Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prairiewindmomma Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Day 4 of gas shortages here...no fun! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mama Geek Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 We live in Florida but have spent a lot of time in SE Texas so the last week has been worrying about the community there and our friends there. Now we are having to get into hurricane prep mode here and we have family on the coast of N Carolina but not the Outer Banks. This week has been rough and it may get a lot worse soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasider Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Not liking the latest projected tracks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frugalmamatx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Not liking the latest projected tracks. Me either. I can easily see it going over Cuba, dusting the tip of Florida, and heading straight for Texas. With a Houston area landfall too. It'd be a complete disaster. The only GOOD thing would be that so much of Houston is still evacuated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butter Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Proving how unpredictable hurricanes can be, her current track is totally missing the east coast. We watch hurricanes pretty closely because of the chances of my husband having to go and help get communication lines up and working for CBP. Flooding, there is nothing he can do really (so he didn't have to go to east Texas and when he went to NY and NJ for Sandy it was a waste of his time), but wind damage that knocks out phone lines he can deal with (so Gustav was most definitely not a waste of time and he was quite busy the few days he spent in LA). Anyway, over the years we've learned that if it's more than 3-4 days out, it'll change. I'm hoping if it stays tracking south, it heads to Mexico and not Houston/south of Houston. Parts of Houston are still flooded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasider Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Me either. I can easily see it going over Cuba, dusting the tip of Florida, and heading straight for Texas. With a Houston area landfall too. It'd be a complete disaster. The only GOOD thing would be that so much of Houston is still evacuated. The water in the gulf should be cooler next week, *hopefully* a low pressure system will keep it out of Texas and Louisiana. But it's looking grim for Florida. I'm afraid it will strafe one of the coasts on its way to landfall (either in the FL panhandle or GA/SC). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lanny Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Floridians please pay attention to the local news and prepare for Irma Sent from my SM-G355M using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pink and Green Mom Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Gah. I live in FL. Someone (sorry can't remember who) posted a hurricane preparedness list the other day - I think they called it a PLOP list? I have searched all the relevant terms - PLOP, hurricane, Texas, Harvey - and cannot for the life of me find the thread. Does anyone know what I'm talking about? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sk8ermaiden Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Gah. I live in FL. Someone (sorry can't remember who) posted a hurricane preparedness list the other day - I think they called it a PLOP list? I have searched all the relevant terms - PLOP, hurricane, Texas, Harvey - and cannot for the life of me find the thread. Does anyone know what I'm talking about? http://forums.welltrainedmind.com/topic/655993-whos-prepping-for-harvey/?p=7756395 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pink and Green Mom Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 http://forums.welltrainedmind.com/topic/655993-whos-prepping-for-harvey/?p=7756395 Thank you so much! I really appreciate it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasider Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Latest spaghetti models https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pawz4me Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 (edited) If it comes under through Florida, it will weaken completely before it gets to Georgia, right? Most likely, but if it continues on the track predicted now I'd do some common sense prep just in case. Historically Georgia's coast has been pretty safe from hurricanes due to how it's recessed. But inland could be different. Hugo (1989) was a good example of how much damage a hurricane can do over a long distance, even inland. Edited September 5, 2017 by Pawz4me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 ladybugs Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Well my mom now has a plan in place for Saturday. Sadly her DH is suppose to come back from a business trip on Saturday though. So he might have to change that to Friday if he can. She is in the first evacuation zone (in her area) though so she needs to be careful. The good news is she has reduced most of her stuff of sentimental value. I have ALL of the photos from my parents marriage (divorced in 1987) and my childhood. So she really just has a few boxes that she needs and her dog. She said today that she is thinking of taking her sewing machine and serger with her to the hotel... yeah the apple doesn't fall far from the tree with that one. Priorities! :laugh: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carrie12345 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Getting all self-absorbed now... Dh is supposed to fly into Jacksonville on the 12th. :huh: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RegGuheert Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Cat 5 now... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plateau Mama Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 This is not good. Dh's parents are in S. Florida. They are supposed to leave for vacation on Monday. We told them to shutter up and leave Thursday/Friday. I sure hope they take our advice. They took a direct cat 3 hit a few years ago. After that he is now more willing to leave. Don't know what my BIL is planning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 ladybugs Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I am looking at spaghetti models. My mom is on the gulf around St. Pete Beach. She lives in a house that was built the year she was born, so they haven't had a direct hit in that long, but she is worried as she is trying to sell her house. Murphy's law and all that. http://www.wtsp.com/news/hurricane-irma-current-forecast-track-spaghetti-models-satellite/470916971 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pawz4me Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 It looks like it may skirt by south Florida and go into the gulf. Is that what they're saying? Where are y'all getting yalls weather info from? The only thing I've seen is the basic, very early predictions. Maybe there's a better source I'm missing? Most of the models are still showing it taking a hard right turn and heading northward somewhere near/through Florida. The best thing this far out is to look at the spaghetti models (see 3 ladybugs' link above). They're all relatively close in agreement that there will be a turn, but looks like it could occur anywhere from the Atlantic coast of Florida to the Gulf coast. The computer models and ensemble models at Weather Underground are good sources. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephanier.1765 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 My Walmart is already out of water so I was able to stock up at another. Plus I was able to get batteries and a couple of lanterns since I don't like candles (they produce too much heat in a already hot situation). Finally, I topped off the car so I guess we are as ready as we are going to get. If it looks like a direct hit for us, I'll be leaving with all the animals and heading north to my son's house. What a horror drive that will be. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pink and Green Mom Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Got to Publix in Pinellas County at 7 am when it opened, there was some water. By the time we left at 8 the shelves were almost bare. My parents in Sarasota have been driving around since 8 am and are unable to find any water. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vonfirmath Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I like the Category 6 blog over at Wunderground for more understanding of what is going on. (Even the comments can often be helpful, if you can ignore the obvious pot-stirrers) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barb_ Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 I have family on Pompano Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, Key Largo, and Key West. I'm a nervous wreck this morning. My Key West family is taking their chances. I don't even know what to think about that. Everyone else is leaving Wednesday or Thursday to try to beat the mass exodus. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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