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PNW People and the Cascadia Subduction Zone?


MommyLiberty5013
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This recently popped up on another forum I visit occasionally. My sister and BIL live in the SEA/TAC area, but they never have said anything about it. So I am curious.

 

I am curious if this is discussed amongst the general public or becoming "a thing?" As recently as this year a university in WA was continuing to study it, towns in OR have had town meetings on it, and FEMA as well as the National Guard have apparently been preparing for it.

 

For anyone unfamiliar, the Cascadia Subduction Zone is a fault line in the upper west coast region. Scientists think it is on a 243 year activity cycle and the last disruption was in January of 1700. They know this due to Japanese records of a tsunami at that time as well as rings of trees that were all killed by a massive inundation of saltwater, all at once, where the saltwater never should have been.

 

Scientists are reporting a 1 in 3 chance of severe seismic activity within the next 50 years to include an 8+ earthquake and a massive tsunami - a repeat of what occurred in 1700. We are now 300+ years into that 243 year cycle. It rivals the San Andreas Fault.

 

Is anyone in the PNW talking this?

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Yes, definitely. Our local newspaper recently had a year long (?) column where each week they discussed items to add to an earthquake preparedness kit and other ways to get ready. Two years ago my husband retrofitted our 1920 home so that we were able to qualify for earthquake insurance. All state workers in OR just received an earthquake preparedness survey from the Governor's Office.

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Well, the engineers and seismologists are. And the design code level in the area is seismic bracing category d, I believe, which should be sufficient. It's what we use up here in Alaska fairly close to the faults as well, and category e for some critical pipeline facilities.

 

https://www.isatsb.com/Seismic-Design-Category.php

 

My nerdy husband actually designed a category f structure in Valdez last year.

 

This is also why they're doing the boring machine in Seattle right now. DOT is reasonably certain the Alaska Way Viaduct won't survive a decent sized quake and there isn't room or ssufficient budget to design a seismic retrofit. The dig made more sense.

Edited by Arctic Mama
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A friend of ours mentioned it recently. He actually thought the potential for damage could be worse than the St. Andreas Fault in CA - but who knows for sure? Since the area is densely populated any earthquake would be catastrophic but a 8+ is almost unimaginable.

Edited by Liz CA
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I have seen a few things on TV like documentaries, but I have no idea about the news since I don't pay a lot of attention to it.  I know our local EMS has preparedness plans in case of many different natural disasters and I am sure that this is on their list.

 

As far as talk by people in every day conversation, I can't say it has come up that I can recall.  We talk about it in scouts as part of emergency preparedness along with other things like volcanoes which we live pretty close to as well.

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I grew up in the PNW (Oregon coast) and I can remember talking about it as a kid.

I think talking about it in the news and such goes in waves. But yeah, I would say it is well known generally in the area. We have had quite a few local (surrounding Seattle) earthquakes here lately, so maybe that has prompted it in the news??

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We're in the PNW.

 

It's in the news periodically. New buildings are designed with earthquake resistance in mind. Some older buildings, like our neighborhood pool--we lost the high dive to ceiling reinforcements, have been gradually retrofitted. Coastal towns have tsunami warning sirens and marked escape routes.

 

People talk about it, I guess, but not extensively. We're aware that emergency preparedness includes earthquake prep, for example. But mostly we can't do anything about it beyond making sure we've got emergency supplies and that the bookcases are fastened to the wall. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best. :)

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I'm glad to hear all of this. Thanks for sharing it.

 

Sis is a young mom, like me, and works FT as an occupational therapist. She is pregnant with their 2nd kiddo. Anyway, she is super busy (duh) and when I mentioned this to her, it was kind of a "deer in the headlights" look.

 

As I do not live near a volcano or earthquake prone zone, are their preps for these disasters any different than the general ones we're all supposed to make in the event of an emergency/disaster/shelter in place? Someone mentioned securing bookshelves, for example.

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Yes, definitely. Our local newspaper recently had a year long (?) column where each week they discussed items to add to an earthquake preparedness kit and other ways to get ready. Two years ago my husband retrofitted our 1920 home so that we were able to qualify for earthquake insurance. All state workers in OR just received an earthquake preparedness survey from the Governor's Office.

 

Sis and BIL have a 1920s home too. I'll have to check if their HOI covers earthquake. (Sis and I discuss this sort of thing occasionally).

 

What were some extra things you added to the earthquake prep kit?

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cascadia ranges from the northern tip of vancouver island to mid oregon.  in potential magnitude - it dwarfs the san andreas fault.  when it ripped jan 26 1700- the tsunami hit japan and wiped out the rice crop. . . (there's a reason we know the *exact* date). there have been 44ish 8+ quakes over the last 10,000 years.  (which gives an average of 227 years)  about half of those were 9+ . . . but according to the geologic record - some of the spacings have approached 1000years . . . and some much closer than average.  the whole thing doens't tend to rip at once - so that's just "parts" that have that sort of magnitude.  I could be misremembering - but it seems the southern portion tends to produce higher magnitude quakes.

and yes - the indians have stories of the water in lk washington sloshing up and down the hills surrounding it . . .not to mention puget sound . .

 

I'm aware of it - not sure how much talking goes on in the general public.  it's currently locked - as in, not moving at all.

I'm friends with someone who used to be on an emergency management committee where she had access to info not available to the general public - and lectured people with PhDs on the subject.  (so if you ever feel bad you don't have one  - you can still become an expert the phds consult.)

 

things will periodically make the news about coastal areas and what they're doing to survive a tsunami.  - though in japan with their 10M tsunami walls/doors . . . they didn't count on the land dropping - and the water came over the top anyway.

 

before and after the nisqually quake in 2001 - there were alot of local things.  but we'd had several smaller (<5ish, <4) quakes in the 90s.  and each time you wonder - is this going to get worse?  it produces a mental fatigue.

 

other than earthquake proofing your house (i.e. making sure it's bolted to the foundation. baby latches on cabinets - just that simple thing can save a lot of stuff and a huge mess.  bookcases bolted to the wall so they dont' fall over. . . . )  having emergency supplies at home and in your car, knowing how to turn off the gas (if you smell it, otherwise don't) . . .you then go about your normal life.

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Earthquake coverage is a special rider. there is  NO HOI policy in the western washington that includes earthquake coverage without paying extra.  if you aren't paying for it - you don't have it.  (dh jokes he wishes it would hit so we could drop it.  ;p)

 

it's like if you lived in a flood plain you have to buy flood insurance.

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you can do a search for earthquake preparedness - but anything that might fall over and land on someone (or block) should be attached to the wall.  easily done with plumbers tape and long screws.  make sure they go well into wood - not drywall.  all it has to do is stop it from tipping - which means momentum never starts.

 

baby cabinet latches - keeps cabinets closed and your dishes inside.

 

so - besides bookcases - TVs!!!! should be attached to the wall.  (flat screens these days are nice for that.)  grandfather clocks, water heaters . (any gas appliance should be locked down - it will reduce the chance of a gas line rupture) . . . furniture can move.  don't have it where if it walks it can block a door.

 

you can get the putty to keep smaller display items from moving - falling off and breaking.

 

have good walking shoes in your car at all times -ones that are sturdy enough to walk through rubble and broken glass.  if you have to walk - you don't want to be wearing heels or flip-flops.

 

 

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I have a friend who works for BLM and she has had many work seminars about this and the need to keep a back pack at work with enough water, vitamins, power bars to last four days to get home in case of an emergency earthquake.  

Edited by Anne in CA
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The school taught you that California is falling into the ocean?

I think she means the tectonic plates would shift and move CA away from the rest of the land mass. It's not a literal "falling into the ocean" and I've heard the phrase used to demonstrate the severity of this happening. It is hyperbole.

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you can do a search for earthquake preparedness - but anything that might fall over and land on someone (or block) should be attached to the wall. easily done with plumbers tape and long screws. make sure they go well into wood - not drywall. all it has to do is stop it from tipping - which means momentum never starts.

 

baby cabinet latches - keeps cabinets closed and your dishes inside.

 

so - besides bookcases - TVs!!!! should be attached to the wall. (flat screens these days are nice for that.) grandfather clocks, water heaters . (any gas appliance should be locked down - it will reduce the chance of a gas line rupture) . . . furniture can move. don't have it where if it walks it can block a door.

 

you can get the putty to keep smaller display items from moving - falling off and breaking.

 

have good walking shoes in your car at all times -ones that are sturdy enough to walk through rubble and broken glass. if you have to walk - you don't want to be wearing heels or flip-flops.

Also good walking shoes under your bed. That was one of the best hints I've read, and we now all have old hiking boots under our beds.

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I grew up in the area in Japan hit hardest by the latest big earthquake and tsunami. I'm not so worried about earthquakes here. That doesn't mean that we don't secure things and don't have some emergency preparedness. But I grew up with multiple tremblers a year and we have nothing like that here.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

 

When this came out a lot of my acquaintances started talking about preparedness. We have supplies and water in the garage, shoes under the beds, all large furniture attached to the walls, and emergency cash available. 

 

I was here for the 2001 earthquake, and while it was not particularly scary, I hope to miss the BIG ONE that will eventually come. And I really hope I'm nowhere near the coast when it hits.

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I think she means the tectonic plates would shift and move CA away from the rest of the land mass. It's not a literal "falling into the ocean" and I've heard the phrase used to demonstrate the severity of this happening. It is hyperbole.

Except that's not accurate. The Pacific and North American plates are sliding past each other (transform plate boundary). A small portion of the state is sliding north while the majority of the state is sliding south (along with the rest of North America). Nothing is moving away.

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I think the idea is that when the big one goes down, no amount of secure bookcases will save anyone and it'll just be a death sentence for huge swathes of people. Then, too, they are predicting that it will take a very long time to restore services.

 

How do people live with the enormity of that eventual disaster?

 

When I lived there no one talked it outside of normal preparedness for minor earthquakes.

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My husband studies pre- and post-disaster  preparation and recovery worldwide.  So he has access to all the research about the PNW and other potential disaster sites.  A lot of people will die when that one happens.  People there are planning, but since so many people work/live right in the zone that will get inundated with few ways to get out within the amount of time before the tsunami will occur (after the 8+ earthquake), people will be trapped.  But then again, most places that are popular for people to inhabit have one or more possibilities for natural (or man made) disaster to occur.

 

His studies point to having strong personal networks - social capital - as the best pre and post disaster solution for individuals.  Knowing your neighbors/co-workers/people in power and being able to join together to help each other when the government cannot help, as it will not be able to in the immediate aftermath of the disaster.

 

He's working with NextDoor, Facebook, NGOs, national, state, and city governments to help them make communities resilient.

http://daldrich.weebly.com/ 

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I grew up in the area in Japan hit hardest by the latest big earthquake and tsunami. I'm not so worried about earthquakes here. That doesn't mean that we don't secure things and don't have some emergency preparedness. But I grew up with multiple tremblers a year and we have nothing like that here.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Japanese are very prepared for disaster.  Their government has to talk about the possibility and prepare the people for it as best they can.  I feel they (at least in Tokyo where we have lived) do an amazing job of helping from above (gov't assistance to earthquake proof) and from beside (creating neighborhood disaster groups who will help in the immediate aftermath).  Also the Japanese people are more...pliable and less independence minded.  I think the US has a harder time with this - people think they know better.

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I think the idea is that when the big one goes down, no amount of secure bookcases will save anyone and it'll just be a death sentence for huge swathes of people. Then, too, they are predicting that it will take a very long time to restore services.

 

How do people live with the enormity of that eventual disaster?

 

When I lived there no one talked it outside of normal preparedness for minor earthquakes.

 

when "the big one" goes down - it might be in range of the japan quake (9.0) in 2011. or the larger alaska quake (9.2) in 1964.  or possibly "only" an 8.0.  there is about 10X difference in force between an 8.2 and a 9.2 - though cascadia is capable of producing one that large, half have been in the 8. range.  there are lots of usgs seismometers - and resulting tsunamis can be detected before they strike to send out early warning systems.  the most vulnerable areas are low lying areas near the epicenter.

 

just like the claims when the san andreas goes, california will fall into the ocean are hyperbole - much of what is said of cascadia's impact is hyperbole.  yes - they can see the geologic record about tsunami impact, and the indians have stories passed down from 1700 - iow: their ancestors lived through it, survived to be able to tell stories.

 

yes, there will probably be casualties - but lots of people will survive - just like they did in japan. there will be low lying areas near water devastated by tsunami - like in japan.  and for most people - yes, anchoring bookcases will be beneficial.

 

for those who live on the coasts in hurricane zones?  or the most concentrated areas of tornado alley?  how do they live there in the face of potential disaster?   you just do.

 

and they can happen almost anywhere - just this morning I read about a 4.0 undersea quake triggering a landslide resulting in a tsunami - in greenland.  four people are missing.

 

eta: - and don't discount there are other areas with earthquakes. . . . re: new madrid fault, which can produce a large or even a great quake. 

Edited by gardenmom5
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By talked about I mean on the news. I don't know how often people talk about it over dinner.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I lived in the area for 14 years and I remember hearing the term and, more often, "We're past due for a big earthquake" So I think it is on people's radar. But not something people are moving away from the area because of.

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http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

 

When this came out a lot of my acquaintances started talking about preparedness. We have supplies and water in the garage, shoes under the beds, all large furniture attached to the walls, and emergency cash available. 

 

I was here for the 2001 earthquake, and while it was not particularly scary, I hope to miss the BIG ONE that will eventually come. And I really hope I'm nowhere near the coast when it hits.

 

I was in Washington for the 2001 earthquake too. Had just gotten to work so not driving anymore.  We were just talking about it this weekend because I went out and wandered about the stores that day and ended up buying a stuffed cat that has travelled in the windshield of my various cars ever since.  And the kids were asking about the story behind it.

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here's a USGS earthquake risk map.  I think some of those thinking "they're safe" because they live in the east or midwest - might be in for a surprise.

 

http://blogs.agu.org/tremblingearth/files/2014/02/USGSHaz.jpg

 

though after every tornado - I will read comments on UK sites with people asking "why do people live there (tornado alley)" . . .

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Except that's not accurate. The Pacific and North American plates are sliding past each other (transform plate boundary). A small portion of the state is sliding north while the majority of the state is sliding south (along with the rest of North America). Nothing is moving away.

Again it's hyperbole. It's meant to be an exaggeration. Kind of like "it's raining cats and dogs." Did we ever see that happen? That's not scientifically possible.

 

All non verbal communication is lost while online, so you may think she was serious based on her words alone. But I guarantee that if she said it in your physical presence you would "get" her intended meaning.

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here's a USGS earthquake risk map. I think some of those thinking "they're safe" because they live in the east or midwest - might be in for a surprise.

 

http://blogs.agu.org/tremblingearth/files/2014/02/USGSHaz.jpg

 

though after every tornado - I will read comments on UK sites with people asking "why do people live there (tornado alley)" . . .

Yes, you're so right. Also it's like Yellowstone being a super volcano. If that erupted 2/3 of the US would be wiped away in some way by the explosion or resulting gases/toxin rains/clouds, etc.. pretty sure that's a lot less likely than Cascadia though. But still... Edited by MommyLiberty5013
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Again it's hyperbole. It's meant to be an exaggeration. Kind of like "it's raining cats and dogs." Did we ever see that happen? That's not scientifically possible.

 

All non verbal communication is lost while online, so you may think she was serious based on her words alone. But I guarantee that if she said it in your physical presence you would "get" her intended meaning.

That may be true, but that was why I asked for clarification. I am not assuming it's hyperbole, because the way it was phrased actually could swing either way.

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Isn't it normal for people to know about the potential hazards in their area? Like someone who lives in a tornado or hurricane prone area.

 

 

 

I would think so. I can't tell you anything about earthquake or tornado preparedness, but I know hurricane preparedness backwards and forwards. And if you're new to the area, every year at the start of hurricane season there's information on local news stations. They continue to give info throughout the season. Libraries and other public/government services also have information. I would think it's similar in other areas for whatever natural disaster is common to the area.

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I would think so. I can't tell you anything about earthquake or tornado preparedness, but I know hurricane preparedness backwards and forwards. And if you're new to the area, every year at the start of hurricane season there's information on local news stations. They continue to give info throughout the season. Libraries and other public/government services also have information. I would think it's similar in other areas for whatever natural disaster is common to the area.

This thread has been fascinating. Like the above, I know the whole hurricane thing. But seriously, our biggest risk is loss of property. It's much easier to outrun a hurricane than a totally unexpected earthquake-generated tsunami. I don't think they're comparable natural disasters on the front end, just on the back side with the wide swath of damage.

 

It makes my stomach hurt to think of the school kids described in the New Yorker article, especially that one school. I picture them hearing the sunami warning, dutifully evacuating to the 45' ridge, and having a perfect view of the monster wave that is about to destroy them.

 

(Sorry for the melodrama, really, but I would not be comfortable at all with that small window of warning. Plus I have an overactive imagination.)

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This thread has been fascinating. Like the above, I know the whole hurricane thing. But seriously, our biggest risk is loss of property. It's much easier to outrun a hurricane than a totally unexpected earthquake-generated tsunami. I don't think they're comparable natural disasters on the front end, just on the back side with the wide swath of damage.

 

It makes my stomach hurt to think of the school kids described in the New Yorker article, especially that one school. I picture them hearing the sunami warning, dutifully evacuating to the 45' ridge, and having a perfect view of the monster wave that is about to destroy them.

 

(Sorry for the melodrama, really, but I would not be comfortable at all with that small window of warning. Plus I have an overactive imagination.)

 

Of all the hundreds of people I knew in Sendai, only one died from the tsunami, including people who lived in the most heavily damaged area.  Yes, there was a lot of death and destruction and it was horrible.  But many people have died in hurricanes as well.  The main difference is that people often have a lot more warning when it comes to hurricanes even though many choose not to evacuate even when it is advised.  But as I mentioned upthread somewhere, they are working on early warning systems for earthquakes and tsunamis so that people can evacuate or find appropriate shelter. 

 

The big city governments in this area know the dangers.  They are not ignoring them.  http://www.seattle.gov/emergency-management/hazards-and-plans/hazards/earthquake

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here's a USGS earthquake risk map. I think some of those thinking "they're safe" because they live in the east or midwest - might be in for a surprise.

 

http://blogs.agu.org/tremblingearth/files/2014/02/USGSHaz.jpg

 

though after every tornado - I will read comments on UK sites with people asking "why do people live there (tornado alley)" . . .

Yes. I always want to point out the New Madrid to people on the east coast and south who get weird about earthquakes. That one will be far more devastating because of how many older buildings aren't to code in some of these areas and the lack of enforcement. Edited by Arctic Mama
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Yes. I always want to point out the New Madrid to people on the east coast and south who get weird about earthquakes. That one will be far more devastating because of how many older buildings aren't to code in some of these areas and the lack of enforcement.

 

apparently - there are advantages to being in an area which experiences frequent quakes - as opposed to "rare".

 

frequent quakes fracture the bedrock and limits the distances of the wave. (talking about the earthquake wave - not a tsunami wave).  rare quakes generally have intact bedrock - and the wave will travel further with potentially more damage in its wake.

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I live in an area with a low chance of earthquake damage. 8-15% so not the lowest but not alarming. We got the insurance rider anyway because it also covers sinkholes and considering there is almost certainly a cave beneath my house, I think that is more important. Now we travelled here a bit more than a month after the devastating April 2011 tornadoes tore through this state. We examined the map of prior tornado paths and our house, while about a quarter mile away from a path, has never had a tornado pass through this area since they have been keeping records. Then we also made sure our house has a safe room. We have a windowless room underground. We take tornado warnings seriously and have redundant warning systems. Much better than being in the path of the potential lahar.

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I would say that we talk about it probably about as much as people in Florida talk about hurricanes, people in the plains states talk about tornadoes, and people in New England talk about blizzards.  It's there, you prepare for it, and if you can't stand the worry, you move.  At least we don't have poisonous snakes.  :0)

 

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My husband studies pre- and post-disaster preparation and recovery worldwide. So he has access to all the research about the PNW and other potential disaster sites. A lot of people will die when that one happens. People there are planning, but since so many people work/live right in the zone that will get inundated with few ways to get out within the amount of time before the tsunami will occur (after the 8+ earthquake), people will be trapped. But then again, most places that are popular for people to inhabit have one or more possibilities for natural (or man made) disaster to occur.

 

His studies point to having strong personal networks - social capital - as the best pre and post disaster solution for individuals. Knowing your neighbors/co-workers/people in power and being able to join together to help each other when the government cannot help, as it will not be able to in the immediate aftermath of the disaster.

 

He's working with NextDoor, Facebook, NGOs, national, state, and city governments to help them make communities resilient.

http://daldrich.weebly.com/

 

This.

 

 

In places with better building codes etc. (not Haiti or Turkey) it is the Tsunami that gets you not the actual shaking. In Japan I read it was 92% died from drowning. Valdez Alaska got the major Tsunami in the 9.2 Alaska earthquake and the most casualties. I will say it is easier for those who have lived in an area. There are parts of town that none of my family will live in because we know it has liquification issues. The ground hasn't changed we just haven't had a large earthquake to show newcomers not to build there. It is now covered in subdivisions. My husband and I chose land out of Tsunami range and with good ground. But who knows where I will actually be during a quake. I do prefer to keep water and food on hand because it is likely the port and highways will be damaged. Most food is barged or trucked up over a road which already has land slide issues. Alaska will definitely have way more problems. In '64 neighbors all helped each other. Like it was mentioned above those with both physical and social capital will fair better.

 

 

I agree that the huge problem in the Seattle area where I used to live is once there is an earthquake, evacuation of Tsunami areas will be impossible in the time they have. Add potential road damage and it only gets worse.

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My husband studies pre- and post-disaster preparation and recovery worldwide. So he has access to all the research about the PNW and other potential disaster sites. A lot of people will die when that one happens. People there are planning, but since so many people work/live right in the zone that will get inundated with few ways to get out within the amount of time before the tsunami will occur (after the 8+ earthquake), people will be trapped. But then again, most places that are popular for people to inhabit have one or more possibilities for natural (or man made) disaster to occur.

 

His studies point to having strong personal networks - social capital - as the best pre and post disaster solution for individuals. Knowing your neighbors/co-workers/people in power and being able to join together to help each other when the government cannot help, as it will not be able to in the immediate aftermath of the disaster.

 

He's working with NextDoor, Facebook, NGOs, national, state, and city governments to help them make communities resilient.

http://daldrich.weebly.com/

The Seattle area is pretty much impossible to evacuate if there is an earthquake. We don't get the warnings like you do with hurricanes, and while earthquakes are less frequent than other major disasters, the devastation is worse. And the land transit is already at a dead standstill in rush hour.

 

Seattle is linked with bridges, not just across the major bodies of water but even through parts of town. We have done earthquake planning in the past and where we used to live, if an earthquake hit, we pretty much expected to become island dwellers because the land-links (no water) would be so broken.

 

Seattle is also an area not known for preparing its citizenry for disaster prep. There is actually a law on the books that prohibits the city council from preparing for nuclear attack aftermath. It was passed during the Cold War in an effort to keep the citizenry from freaking out about nuclear danger. (Part of the school of Stick Your Fingers in Your Ears and Say Lalalalala and It Will Be OK". )

 

In this area, there are land masses that are known to be unstable--but people still build there. They have to sign closing papers that say they know they live on a latent landslide.

 

Same thing happened when we lived in Boulder. There are significant parts of town known to be on the flood plain. People buy property on the food plain, and at closing they have to sign document saying they know it is on the flood plain. They can't get flood insurance. And then when the 100 year flood hits, it's a big shock ... "we had no idea we could be flooded." And the government assistance does more for them than a lot of insurance companies would so people don't even care about the lack of insurance.

 

It's the same all over. People bear different amounts and kinds of risk. I know things will stink if the Big One hits. But it gives me the same stomach-clench that the tornado warnings gave me in Colorado. It's always something.

 

And...I will say that a couple of months after we sold our beach house in Oregon, there was a tsunami warning for that area...and my response made me realize that I had endured a certain amount of I acknowledged stress for a long time.

 

So who knows how much stress affects me, living here. Day to day, the thought of earthquake never occurs to me. But I AM jumpy, driving across bridges.

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