wuhan - coronavirus

[Pen]

12 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yes and yes. There's now compelling data that before puberty, kids don't spread the virus. I'm very dubious about high school students and curious about middle school students. 

 

What’s the compelling evidence?

[Ausmumof3]

77 cases in Vic today.  1 in NT in someone returning from a vic hotspot.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I would agree.  I would assume children can and do spread it unless proven otherwise. 

The reasoning I have seen is that they have less ace2 receptors in think?

[Melissa in Australia]

24 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

77 cases in Vic today.  1 in NT in someone returning from a vic hotspot.

A few of them were children that were in contact with a known case in primary school

[Melissa in Australia]

28 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

77 cases in Vic today.  1 in NT in someone returning from a vic hotspot.

A few of them were children that were in contact with a known case in primary school

 

Also  the northern suburbs of Melbourne outbreak has been traced back directly to the security guards at the hotel lockdown. Apparently the security guards were having sex with the people with quarantine, they caught coronavirus then took it home to their families. Then it spread, resulting in 30 suburbs having to go into complete strict lockdown. 

[Melissa in Australia]

1 minute ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

That needs to be a felony.  Hopefully some law is written in some way that allows them to send people to jail for that.  

That is also the reason that no flights are coming into Melbourne, because they don't have security  guards atm while the investigation is happening. The people who are still in hotel quarantine are now been guarded with corrections offices from prisons. 

There is a retired judge appointed by gov of Vic to see what the laws the security guards breached

[Melissa in Australia]

2 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Is it known whether the known case was an adult or a child?

In one school it was another child, another school it just said a close contact at school. 

There has been a small cluster at a secondary school over the last week

[Ausmumof3]

Abc “Student-to-student transmission confirmed in Victoria

  

 

Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said there has been some student-to-student transmission and also teacher-to-teacher transmission at some schools, which have since been closed for cleaning.

 

This is something we haven't seen before in Australia.

 

Dr Sutton said that was probably because authorities weren't sufficiently pushing for testing of students or of kids.

 

"Maybe because we hadn't had a lot of cases in kids, there wasn't a real push but we're now obviously engaging with a lot of families, getting testing of kids at a household level, and so probably picking up cases that would otherwise have gone unnoticed previously," he said.

 

It's not clear just how many student-to-student transmissions there have been because some cases could be linked to the same household, but Dr Sutton said they were seeing some evidence of student-to-student and (especially) teacher-to-teacher transmission.”

 

[Ausmumof3]

29 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

That is also the reason that no flights are coming into Melbourne, because they don't have security  guards atm while the investigation is happening. The people who are still in hotel quarantine are now been guarded with corrections offices from prisons. 

There is a retired judge appointed by gov of Vic to see what the laws the security guards breached

Wow.  That is all shocking.  I can’t believe people are so careless!

[Melissa in Australia]

1 minute ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

I hope that given your small numbers they can do extensive contact tracing and release details on exactly how it spread.  Because the question of whether young children spread it and how often is critical for us to understand if we're going to make decent decisions about schools in the US, and unfortunately, with the kind of virus levels we have, contact tracing doesn't work. 

There is also genome tracing happening here

[Ausmumof3]

Ugh 

worldometer has US at 51,000 for yesterday.  Highest day yet.

from the way graphs look to me it looks like the first uptick was around 19-20 June. If we say a two to three week lead on deaths they will start increasing some time next week.  Unless increased cases are a feature of more testing, treatment protocols are better giving better outcomes.  One other thing I’ve seen suggested is the first spike is going to be younger people so it will be the people they go on to infect that will die meaning maybe a four to five week lead time.  No idea what percentage positive is doing except someone tweeted Arizona is at 28pc

[Ausmumof3]

Abc: A Sydney man who spent two weeks in hotel quarantine in Victoria has tested positive to COVID-19 after returning to New South Wales.

The man is an employee at the Woolworths store in Balmain and had a test after his employer noticed he had symptoms.

Fifty staff at the store have been isolated.

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard said people who've shopped at Woolworths in Balmain should be "alert".

Chief health officer Kerry Chant says the man tested positive to COVID-19 while he was in quarantine in Melbourne, but was assessed as clear of the virus and allowed to leave the hotel after 14 days.

[Melissa in Australia]

There is also a man in Darwin who tested positive. He spent 14 days in quarantine in Melbourne spent 3 days with friends before flying to Darwin. 

[Melissa in Australia]

Up until a few days ago testing in quarantine was optional. Unbelievable I know

[Ausmumof3]

Also now 20 hospitalised and 4 in ICU 

[Harriet Vane]

23 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

I looked that case up, because I'm trying to make a decision as to whether we are going to ask family members who are quarantining so they can come see us, to test, and it seemed to support the idea that you could quarantine for 14 days with no symptoms, and still end up getting it later.

But it turns out he did test positive in quarantine, which seems like it completely defeats the purpose of quarantine:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-02/victorian-rail-passengers-screened-in-nsw-coronavirus-crackdown/12414668

The ABC understands the man had recently returned from Bangladesh and had been quarantining in a Melbourne hotel, where he was deemed not to be infectious despite returning a positive test there.

NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant said not all people who test positive to coronavirus while in quarantine hotels had to stay longer than 14 days.

"If you are symptom free 72 hours and it's been at least 10 days since your onset of your symptoms than you are deemed non-infectious," Dr Chant said.

With all that we have learned about mild cases and asymptomatic spread, this approach is ludicrous.

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The reasoning I have seen is that they have less ace2 receptors in think?

 

That’s a good reason for children usually getting it less or less severely—but I don’t see how it would prevent passing it to others. 

[Melissa in Australia]

12 minutes ago, Harriet Vane said:

With all that we have learned about mild cases and asymptomatic spread, this approach is ludicrous.

We agree

[Pen]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

There was also a small study of asymptomatic family members who had no antibodies but did have the T-cell response in much higher quantity than did the control population. 

I don't know exactly what to do with the info, but it's all certainly adding up to an interesting picture so far. I hope they do study this in NY. 

It’s a helpful confirmation that there may be some useful immune response without antibodies.

As a general matter, we already know that the innate immune system and parts of the acquired immune system (such as memory cells) can work with out there being antibodies.

 

I don’t think it changes distance + hygiene + masks type approach.  

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

First round of vaccine testing in my state - 40 people involved.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-02/coronavirus-vaccine-trials-to-begin-at-royal-adelaide-hospital/12414384

[lewelma]

Our director of health has said that NZ is closely watching the Australian situation.  I wonder if they have had a firm talking to with the security guards! 

We now have the military running the facilities because they have way more experience with complex operations than bureaucrats. I'm feeling very lucky that the border bungle for us two weeks ago was only 2 women who were allowed to leave on compassionate grounds without a test and later tested positive -- and they basically interacted with no one.  But it created so much angst, that the government is now being way way more careful. Add to this Australia's experience, and we might be able to avoid something bad happening. We currently have 22 known cases in the quarantine facilities. 

[frogger]

5 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

What do people think is the reasonable thing to do in a case like this, where people clearly violated the Phase 1 reopening guidelines that limited gatherings to 10 people or fewer?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/the-virus-didnt-stop-a-washington-socialite-from-throwing-a-backyard-soiree-then-the-tests-came-back-positive/2020/07/01/841041ba-ba19-11ea-bdaf-a129f921026f_story.html

Should there be consequences for the hostess?  For the guests?  For the company that agreed to cater?  

I find it fascinating that one would hold an event that is illegal, and then invite the press to come write an article about it.  I don't think that happens for other illegal acts, people usually try to hide them.  So, why is this different?

 

I don't know but I'd say this is worse. 

  https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story%3fid=71552514

 

 

Edited July 2, 2020 by frogger
Link

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.azcentral.com/amp/5355800002?__twitter_impression=true
 

Arizona 

“On Monday, the state Health Department officially activated crisis standards of care, which will, among other things, protect hospitals from legal liability for triaging patients, according to a set of guidelines that take into account a person's likelihood of survival, the extent of their sickness and other factors.”

Disclaimer - I don’t know about this source

[Ausmumof3]

30 minutes ago, frogger said:

I don't know but I'd say this is worse. 

  https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story%3fid=71552514

 

 

Oh wow... that is insane 

[Ausmumof3]

Looks like there’s a shift on messaging around masks?  With pence wearing one yesterday and trump saying he wasn’t against wearing them?  I don’t want to get political but I do think a shift from the top will help.

[JennyD]

New cases in Israel at an all-time high.  The Israeli government continues to dither.  The Palestinian Authority has imposed a lockdown in the West Bank, where cases are soaring.

The interesting question is whether the PM will suddenly remember just how vulnerable he is.  There is no real constituency here for 'the virus isn't real' and/or 'just let grandma die,' and after three elections in 18 months Netanyahu was able to hang on the prime ministry (and let's not forget, postpone his corruption trial) only because his caretaker government's initial response to the virus was very successful.  Now the virus is raging, the economy-wrecking lockdown appears to have been a waste, and the right-wing dream of annexing the West Bank is fading rapidly (see above, raging virus and 20%+ unemployment; see also, US presidential poll numbers).  Indeed, the PM's two main political antagonists have suddenly emerged from the deep freezer where they have been apparently been hiding the last two months with clarion calls to turn over management of the coronavirus crisis to other entities (e.g, the military).  One of them has even set up a 'shadow coronavirus cabinet' of experts to provide an alternative to the official coronavirus management group.  

Israel was probably never going to be New Zealand, but it was totally on track to be Austria.  Just a colossal failure of leadership coming out of the lockdown.  

Edited July 2, 2020 by JennyD

[TracyP]

Does anybody have thoughts on whether new treatment protocols could be improving outcomes? 

I have been looking at icu numbers and deaths for my state. If you assume the deaths from today were in the ICU yesterday than there has been a huge improvement. At the end of April it appears you had a 13-25% chance of dying if you were in ICU, but that has steadily dropped over the last 2 months. It is now a 2.5-7% chance of dying.

Has anybody else noticed this type of improvement? Any thoughts on what might be making the difference?

[ktgrok]

11 hours ago, square_25 said:

Yes and yes. There's now compelling data that before puberty, kids don't spread the virus. I'm very dubious about high school students and curious about middle school students. 

No, there is an absence of data that they spread the virus, not data that they don't spread it. Very different. 

10 hours ago, square_25 said:

Basically, lack of superspreader events among little kids in any reopened elementary school I've heard about.

We aren't testing the kids though, so we don't know. 

10 hours ago, square_25 said:

Israel is definitely high on my list of evidence. 

Israel is having big problems. 

9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Abc “Student-to-student transmission confirmed in Victoria

  

 

Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said there has been some student-to-student transmission and also teacher-to-teacher transmission at some schools, which have since been closed for cleaning.

 

This is something we haven't seen before in Australia.

 

Dr Sutton said that was probably because authorities weren't sufficiently pushing for testing of students or of kids.

 

"Maybe because we hadn't had a lot of cases in kids, there wasn't a real push but we're now obviously engaging with a lot of families, getting testing of kids at a household level, and so probably picking up cases that would otherwise have gone unnoticed previously," he said.

 

It's not clear just how many student-to-student transmissions there have been because some cases could be linked to the same household, but Dr Sutton said they were seeing some evidence of student-to-student and (especially) teacher-to-teacher transmission.”

 

Bolded - we were not looking, so we were not finding. We've had our heads in the sand, afraid to look. 

6 hours ago, frogger said:

I don't know but I'd say this is worse. 

  https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story%3fid=71552514

 

 

Well, this answers why we can't have nice things. 

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, TracyP said:

Does anybody have thoughts on whether new treatment protocols could be improving outcomes? 

I have been looking at icu numbers and deaths for my state. If you assume the deaths from today were in the ICU yesterday than there has been a huge improvement. At the end of April it appears you had a 13-25% chance of dying if you were in ICU, but that has steadily dropped over the last 2 months. It is now a 2.5-7% chance of dying.

Has anybody else noticed this type of improvement? Any thoughts on what might be making the difference?

I think realizing it is a vascular problem, not just a respiratory problem, is helping a lot. 

[Kanin]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Looks like there’s a shift on messaging around masks?  With pence wearing one yesterday and trump saying he wasn’t against wearing them?  I don’t want to get political but I do think a shift from the top will help.

I agree with you.

But... The president is holding a 7,500 person 4th of July fireworks thing at Mt Rushmore, where distancing and masks are optional.

I'm going to be really upset if states wait until they have a disaster on their hands, then order mask mandates, and then find that masks work. Like... you couldn't have done this easy, cheap, effective thing sooner?!

[TracyP]

22 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

I think realizing it is a vascular problem, not just a respiratory problem, is helping a lot. 

Oh yeah, good point. Blood thinners have become standard treatment over that time.

[Wheres Toto]

6 hours ago, frogger said:

I don't know but I'd say this is worse. 

  https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story%3fid=71552514

 

 

Wow, this is a whole new level of stupidity.  Just unreal.

[JennyD]

6 hours ago, frogger said:

I don't know but I'd say this is worse. 

  https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/alabama-students-throwing-covid-parties-infected-officials/story%3fid=71552514

 

 

 

I've been opposed to human challenge vaccine trials on ethical grounds, but this sort of thing makes me reconsider.  

[TracyP]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Is that actually the right calculation? Wouldn’t you need to think about how long someone has been in the ICU?

I'm not positive it's the right calculation. I am seeing a trend where that 13-25% holds true all through April, then steadily improves until we get to this 2.5-7% average that has held steady for the last 2 weeks. The time any given individual spent in ICU should be irrelevant when looking over a span of 12+ weeks, right?

 

[ktgrok]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

No, I think there’s some data that they don’t spread it. I was super worried about elementary school reopenings in Europe, and I’m not seeing major spread there. 

The question is not whether there’s any spread, the question is whether it’s a major driver of spread. As we keep seeing in the US, the major drivers seem to be longer gatherings inside, with AC being worse than no AC. If childcare settings were a major driver, I would expect to have seen correlation with reopening elementary schools and also would have heard about major outbreaks — if kids are driving outbreaks, they’d bring them home, and the chain would result in the usual sort of explosion.

I still don’t feel comfortable with my kids in that setting next year and I’m continuing to gather data. However, I do think there’s now some evidence.

But that would require robust contact tracing and testing - do we have that regarding schools in any meaningful way?

If a kid gets it from another kid at school, but is asymptomatic and not tested, and gives it to mom, who has only mild symptoms and is not tested, who gives it to a few coworkers, who get sick and ARE tested but they have no kids in school, what are the chances it actually gets traced back to the school or daycare?

I can confidently say that in my state there is ZERO chance that would be linked to the school/daycare. 

Edited July 2, 2020 by Ktgrok

[TracyP]

11 minutes ago, square_25 said:

My operating assumption is still that outcomes aren’t improving much but that our case counts are way off. I could be wrong, though. On the other hand, I think treatments that worked really well would be being publicized.

Which is why hospitalization numbers have always been a better indicator than case numbers. I think those are generally very accurate.

[TracyP]

4 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

But that would require robust contact tracing and testing - do we have that regarding schools in any meaningful way?

If a kid gets it from another kid at school, but is asymptomatic and not tested, and gives it to mom, who has only mild symptoms and is not tested, who gives it to a few coworkers, who get sick and ARE tested but they have no kids in school, what are the chances it actually gets traced back to the school or daycare?

I can confidently say that in my state there is ZERO chance that would be linked to the school/daycare. 

This would probably not be caught in my state. However, if 8 kids got sick at daycare and spread it to their families, even if only 4 of those families were symptomatic I absolutely think it would be caught in my state. So far it hasn't happened. I'm not yet sure exactly what that means, I wish we had more info. It does seem to me that young kids are not causing any large outbreaks. I will absolutely change my tune if I start to see this happening.

[cintinative]

 has this been discussed?  Regarding transmission via children.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7268273/?fbclid=IwAR2iaor6Hq7AhOEK0dAVyY9JcEy9UQVv83MLU2zEOWGT6t1o6wMmyUEma3Y

52 minutes ago, square_25 said:

My operating assumption is still that outcomes aren’t improving much but that our case counts are way off. I could be wrong, though. On the other hand, I think treatments that worked really well would be being publicized.

 

Hospitals are getting better at treating covid since the beginning of the outbreak.  There's no silver bullet, but remdesivir helps some, the MATH+ protocols help, pronation helps, delaying intubation helps.  There's all kinds of formal and informal communications between hospital professionals about what works and what doesn't work.

[Pen]

3 hours ago, TracyP said:

Does anybody have thoughts on whether new treatment protocols could be improving outcomes? 

I have been looking at icu numbers and deaths for my state. If you assume the deaths from today were in the ICU yesterday than there has been a huge improvement. At the end of April it appears you had a 13-25% chance of dying if you were in ICU, but that has steadily dropped over the last 2 months. It is now a 2.5-7% chance of dying.

Has anybody else noticed this type of improvement? Any thoughts on what might be making the difference?

 

I have been following DrBeen on YouTube, and I do think some of what is being learned about treatment is helping. 

[vonfirmath]

21 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

In the US?  Not much.  We do know that the virus hasn't spread through daycare centers, including a study of 100,000 kids of essential workers in NYC, and studies of kids in YMCA childcare across the country.  You would think that if we saw spread among children anywhere it would have been there.   There are a few situations where there is spread in daycare where they did test widely, but it seems like there was more spread from teacher to teacher, and some from teacher to student.   In Israel, they opened schools successfully, and then things fell apart when they opened secondary schools.  

But other countries are contact tracing, and are opening with lots of data.  In Israel opening primary schools clearly didn't cause spiking, while opening secondary schools was a disaster.  The situation is Victoria, Australia is awful, but hopefully it will yield more information. 

I don't think that we know sure, but I think that school systems that are opening for elementary, and not for high school may be on to something.  There are other reasons why opening for younger kids makes sense too.  Our economy is dependent on childcare, and a "pod style" opening with kids staying with the same group all day will be much easier to implement with younger kids.  

My son is in an advanced group and the last week of school they talked about what they knew already about next year

1) They won't be advancing as fast as they have been. THey are slowing down the schedule. Probably partly because they didn't get through everything they expected to in 7th grade and expect 8th to be similar -- the disruption will mean they can not fly through the curriculum as fast as they expect.

In addition, I suspect they have been trying to shut down this particular program and shuttle all the advanced kids into advanced classes in their own schools instead of together across the whole district.

 

2) They may well be in one room for most of next year, yet still studying online, and trying to group the ASCEND students together to get their teaching, whether it ends up being in person (With the teachers moving instead of the students) or online yet in the school building

 

3) (They didn't cover what would happen with extra classes at all -- like band. OTOH I'm not sure band is going to be able to do much in the fall, at least. We have private lessons and regular practice to keep him from regressing)

 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

But that would require robust contact tracing and testing - do we have that regarding schools in any meaningful way?

If a kid gets it from another kid at school, but is asymptomatic and not tested, and gives it to mom, who has only mild symptoms and is not tested, who gives it to a few coworkers, who get sick and ARE tested but they have no kids in school, what are the chances it actually gets traced back to the school or daycare?

I can confidently say that in my state there is ZERO chance that would be linked to the school/daycare. 

 

Same here. 

In my area only children with parents in essential services were going to school / child care, and the school / childcare had ~ 25 kids spread out in a physical setting that normally would  have ~ 125 - 200 kids.  And they were being super careful.   I don’t know if that’s typical of other places.   I don’t think apparent lack of spread in those circumstances can be interpreted to mean that children can not spread SARS2.   A few months ago we were being told it only spread from animals, no human-to-human transmission. 

Edited July 2, 2020 by Pen

[prairiewindmomma]

There is a daycare incident here at a kinder care. 20 positive so far—including 8 kids—and they are still testing. This is the third daycare incident I know of, and our state actually has really good COVID/daycare rules.

[prairiewindmomma]

Our district has said straight up—if you want an all online program, join the district online program. Also, there will be no “normal” school—expect a hybrid for the rest. I suspect jr high and high school will be in twice a week and they are working on elementary scenarios now with the goal to get them in to the building more often. I do know they are working off of a “stable cohort” model.

[Pen]

6 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

There is a daycare incident here at a kinder care. 20 positive so far—including 8 kids—and they are still testing. This is the third daycare incident I know of, and our state actually has really good COVID/daycare rules.

 

Oregon only officially began including child care outbreaks in weekly reports on July 1.

and only if there are 5 or more confirmed cases at the facility and the facility is for at least 30 children iirc.

I do not know if prior lack of evidence of such outbreaks is because of lack of incidents or because they weren’t being reported.

and I do not know if people who think there are none in their states have an absence of evidence due to it not needing to be reported. 

[73349]

1 hour ago, cintinative said:

 has this been discussed?  Regarding transmission via children.  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7268273

Unfortunately, I don't think 12 days and without testing anyone asymptomatic tells us a lot, but it's good to know that the three presymptomatic and newly symptomatic kids attending didn't spread it to the teachers even in band and choir.

With regard to opening childcare, has anywhere in the US gone back to normal capacity? In my area, medical, pharmacy, grocery, and emergency personnel have been at work all along; retail personnel have gone back but not to 100%, and indeed I see signs that some stores are reorganizing and possibly closing; and many workers are still at home & have their kids still at home, including teachers, most state/county/city employees, and software folks. Around here, this is a significant percentage of kids not back to daycare after nearly four months. (And the state homeschool website crashed yesterday as a tsunami of parents tried to file their notices of intent.)

[frogger]

14 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

What do people think is the reasonable thing to do in a case like this, where people clearly violated the Phase 1 reopening guidelines that limited gatherings to 10 people or fewer?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/the-virus-didnt-stop-a-washington-socialite-from-throwing-a-backyard-soiree-then-the-tests-came-back-positive/2020/07/01/841041ba-ba19-11ea-bdaf-a129f921026f_story.html

Should there be consequences for the hostess?  For the guests?  For the company that agreed to cater?  

I find it fascinating that one would hold an event that is illegal, and then invite the press to come write an article about it.  I don't think that happens for other illegal acts, people usually try to hide them.  So, why is this different?

 

 

I'm thinking volunteer work. Transfer them to a nearby hotspot where they take the job of transferring dead bodies from hospitals to morgues.

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, frogger said:

 

I'm thinking volunteer work. Transfer them to a nearby hotspot where they take the job of transferring dead bodies from hospitals to morgues.

 

That would be good for the Covid partiers too - the ones trying to catch it. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/505437-new-york-county-issues-subpoenas-to-people-refusing-to-talk-to-contact

It's hard to rely on contact tracing when people have to be subpoenaed to even comply.  And even then how do you know that you are getting accurate information from these selfish people? 

[ktgrok]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

Yes, those are definitely better. I’m also watching the positivity rate.

My state doesn't report new hospitalizations, or current ones, only total. So positivity rate is the best we have.