wuhan - coronavirus

[prairiewindmomma]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prada_Marfa
 

A photo of the store, for those who aren’t familiar with the joke...

[TracyP]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

What have they found so far? 

I thought NY was also doing stuff with plasma... don't know if there are studies, though? I don't keep track of the studies the way I do of the actual COVID data. 

@Pen

What Laura linked is what I'm referring to. This study seemed well designed (to me...) It looks like they took 11000 people and randomly assigned them to 5 different groups. I am not sure if one group is a control, and they are looking at 4 treatments or if there are 5 treatments. I sift through so much each day that it starts to run together, but this study has stuck out as being one of the best I've seen yet.

1 hour ago, Laura Corin said:

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-06-16-dexamethasone-reduces-death-hospitalised-patients-severe-respiratory-complications#

http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-06-05-no-clinical-benefit-use-hydroxychloroquine-hospitalised-patients-covid-19

 

Yep, these are the ones I've seen so far. Thank you!

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

Yeah, but man, you'd hope they would care if they gave it to others!!!!! GRRRRRRR!!!

 

Absolutely agree! And they do mostly wear them in the rooms. I wear mine in complete accordance with the rules and try my best to speak sense in the group. I don't know for sure as I don't discuss politics much at work but I have a strong sense that politics enters into this for some. Honestly, the main thing that I have learned from this experience is that we are, by and large, not as bright as we like to think we are! It's been a shock!

[TCB]

42 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

QFT. I have friends who are doctors and nurses in your region and they are remarkably blase. They are socializing without masks in their private lives, going places, and generally acting as if they are safe in their protective bubble. They aren’t reading journals or trying to educate themselves at all. 
 

I am worried they are going to have a huge outbreak TX or FL style because everyone is so casual in their mask wearing.

 

 

Absolutely! Me too! This is a very homogeneous area in terms of way of thinking. One of the drs I work with said his family came into town and refused to go out to eat anywhere because we weren't taking covid seriously here. They were absolutely right!This particular dr does is also taking it seriously, and I have to say there are a number of people at work who are also taking it seriously. I have not eaten in a restaurant since early March or maybe before. 

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

Are you referring to the bogus study out of Brigham and Women’s, (Harvard ?) and  Surgisphere iirc published in Lancet and later retracted because it was fraudulent? 

 

I thought there were a couple now that showed higher mortality? Maybe I'm wrong. 

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Data on children not spreading COVID-19 via contact tracing from the Netherlands: 

https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19

Not sure if this has been linked, but it's encouraging. 

Hmm...seems still an issue of no testing in asymptomatic kids. Only people with symptoms were tested. That said, although the under 13 crowd had about a quarter of the rate as the general population, the 13-18 ground had a higher positive rate than the general population. 

As for the spread from child to parent type thing they looked at - they only looked at 10 kids. No where near a large enough sample to mean anything. We know some people seem to spread it more than others, so need a larger number of people to really tell. 

 

37 minutes ago, TCB said:

Absolutely agree! And they do mostly wear them in the rooms. I wear mine in complete accordance with the rules and try my best to speak sense in the group. I don't know for sure as I don't discuss politics much at work but I have a strong sense that politics enters into this for some. Honestly, the main thing that I have learned from this experience is that we are, by and large, not as bright as we like to think we are! It's been a shock!

Well, this kind of goes along with how many nurses and doctors smoked, long after that was a known cancer causer. 

Edited July 2, 2020 by Ktgrok

[melmichigan]

4 hours ago, Joker said:

How do I safely (for her safety) stay at night with my 70 year old mother? Her recovery from surgery isn’t going near as well as hoped. I’ve spent the last several days at the hospital but would go home at night. Tonight, she’s at home and she can’t stay alone. I’m wearing a mask now during the day but what do I do while I’m sleeping. There is no way I can sleep in a mask as I’m really feeling the last few days and I feel like crud due to the mask wearing all day for several days. There is literally no one else so I have to do this. My teens are going out with small groups of friends and protests so I’m concerned about giving anything to her. 

Will just sleeping in a different room but masking when she needs me be enough? Doors will be open but I could be in another room.

Open a window in her room with a small fan blowing outside to help create a negative pressure while blocking the air return in the room to keep the air from recirculating in the house. Keep all bedroom doors closed and use a baby monitor or something similar when out of the room to allow you to be outside and such where you can be without a mask (away from the window).

[matrips]

7 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

3) (They didn't cover what would happen with extra classes at all -- like band. OTOH I'm not sure band is going to be able to do much in the fall, at least. We have private lessons and regular practice to keep him from regressing)

My son took band this past year in high school.  That was the only class that did live zoom sessions everyday.  He did his class in the garage with his saxophone and iPad.  It turned into his favorite class because there was always interaction.  

[vonfirmath]

2 minutes ago, matrips said:

My son took band this past year in high school.  That was the only class that did live zoom sessions everyday.  He did his class in the garage with his saxophone and iPad.  It turned into his favorite class because there was always interaction.  

 

My son was playing band this year and they did very little once it went live. They had them record a couple of things of themselves playing and that's it.

 

[matrips]

3 hours ago, Pen said:

I’ll stick with Home Quercitin plus zinc in meantime. ) 

Would you recommend our family taking zinc and quercetin every day that we’re travelling?  I have it and was keeping it handy in case someone developed any sysmptoms.  Is it preventative?  

We do take D3 everyday.

[Ali in OR]

1 hour ago, Dreamergal said:

He offered to die for the economy so it will not be much of a sacrifice. 🙄

I thought he offered up *other people* to die for the economy.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, TracyP said:

@Pen

What Laura linked is what I'm referring to. This study seemed well designed (to me...) It looks like they took 11000 people and randomly assigned them to 5 different groups. I am not sure if one group is a control, and they are looking at 4 treatments or if there are 5 treatments. I sift through so much each day that it starts to run together, but this study has stuck out as being one of the best I've seen yet.

Yep, these are the ones I've seen so far. Thank you!

 

This is a review of many HCQ studies to date globally, including the NHS one: 

 

conclusion: 

51 studies

Global HCQ studies. PrEP, PEP, and early treatment studies show high effectiveness, while late treatment shows mixed results.

https://c19study.com/

 

 

 

PrEP
100%

 

PEP
100%

 

Early
100%

 

Late
65%

 

All
80%

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think the number of people involved in the NHS RECOVERY study is good in terms of numbers of cases.  

 

I can certainly  understand not wanting to use HCQ on the basis of that study.  I would certainly not want the very high doses they used.   I would not want that high a dose of HCQ even early, let alone too late. 

Edited July 2, 2020 by Pen

[ktgrok]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yes, that matches my expectations, frankly. 

Did you see the graph around this bit? 

"When reporting a COVID-19 patient, it is also possible to report which other patient is a probable source of the infection. This data shows that COVID-19 is primarily spread between people who are about the same age. The figure below shows data on 693 paired patients, displaying the ages of both the source patient and the patient that they infected. Transmission of the virus appears to take place mainly between people of about the same age, and less frequently between parents and children (of all ages)." 

I wish they said more about this, as  to if all possible contacts, even asymptomatic ones, were tested, if kids were out and about to be exposed and therefore give it to a parent, if kids were at daycare versus home with the parent, etc etc. 

[Wheres Toto]

8 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

I wish they said more about this, as  to if all possible contacts, even asymptomatic ones, were tested, if kids were out and about to be exposed and therefore give it to a parent, if kids were at daycare versus home with the parent, etc etc. 

Given how uncomfortable the test is, how many parents are going to want to bring their completely asymptomatic kids in for testing?  I know it would be a hard sell for my kids (almost 13 and almost 15).  

Then of course, the false negative rate.

[Ausmumof3]

53,000 cases for the US so far today

world wide yesterday 197,000

[Ausmumof3]

One security guard on quarantine duties has been stood down in my state after sapol noticed them not wearing a mask.  Five police officers are in self isolation in vic after one tested positive 

[Shoeless]

3 hours ago, Dreamergal said:

He offered to die for the economy so it will not be much of a sacrifice. 🙄

 

Well, mostly he offered up other people in tribute. 🙄  

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Isn't the false negative rate for asymptomatic people basically ridiculous, anyway? I'd like them to test asymptomatic people, too, but given that, I wonder how much of a difference it would make.  

Is it any different a rate than people with symptoms? I don't think I've seen anything saying asymptomatic are more likely to get a false negative?

[ElizabethB]

New early HCQ study, HCQ lowered death rate.

"The study analyzed 2,541 patients hospitalized among the system’s six hospitals between March 10 and May 2 and found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine died while 26% of those who did not receive the drug died."

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/07/02/michigan-henry-ford-health-study-finds-hydroxychloroquine-lowers-covid-19-death-rate/5365090002/

[ElizabethB]

5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Interesting! I’ll have to look at the actual study.

Here is another quote, early may be key:

 Roughly 82% of the patients began receiving hydroxychloroquine within 24 hours and 91% within 48 hours, a factor Dr. Marcus Zervos identified as a potential key to the medication’s success."

My nurse friend says they do early HCQ as well and have seen the difference since they started doing that, also a big enough difference he says to see with plasma, I don't think the plasma has to be as early to work.

Edited July 3, 2020 by ElizabethB

[ElizabethB]

30 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Interesting! I’ll have to look at the actual study.

Here is the actual study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Interestingly, there is no mention of zinc that I could find, I thought the primary way HCQ helped was as a zinc ionophore.

[Terabith]

4 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Y’all know TX is only taking it seriously because HEB instituted its mask rule and rationing again first. 😂

Wait, seriously?  What did HEB do with rationing?  

I have mad respect for HEB.  They started preparing for the epidemic in January.  

[Ausmumof3]

66 cases in vic

abc

“Victorian Health Minister suggests 'super spreader' could be the cause of the outbreak

 

A single source could be the cause for the latest outbreak of COVID-19 in Melbourne. 

 

Victorian Health Minister, Jenny Mikakos, told reporters a briefing she received on this week suggested many of the new cases could be traced to one infection. 

 

"On Tuesday, I received a briefing of a genomic sequencing report that seemed to suggest that there seems to be a single source of infection for many of the cases that have gone across the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne," she said. 

  
"It appears to be even potentially a super spreader that has caused this upsurge in cases. We don't have the full picture yet."

[ktgrok]

3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

66 cases in vic

abc

“Victorian Health Minister suggests 'super spreader' could be the cause of the outbreak

 

A single source could be the cause for the latest outbreak of COVID-19 in Melbourne. 

 

Victorian Health Minister, Jenny Mikakos, told reporters a briefing she received on this week suggested many of the new cases could be traced to one infection. 

 

"On Tuesday, I received a briefing of a genomic sequencing report that seemed to suggest that there seems to be a single source of infection for many of the cases that have gone across the northern and western suburbs of Melbourne," she said. 

  
"It appears to be even potentially a super spreader that has caused this upsurge in cases. We don't have the full picture yet."

This is what is so insidious - and why we need largescale contact tracing rather than assumption that certain populations don't spread it, based on limited studies. 

[Pen]

36 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

Here is the actual study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Interestingly, there is no mention of zinc that I could find, I thought the primary way HCQ helped was as a zinc ionophore.

 

There are a whole lot of potential HCQ mechanisms of action ... not just zinc ionophore.  That was actually a later addition after earlier use  had already been showing promise on its own. 

it may shift the whole Th1 / Th2 immune balance for example (though there are discrepancies in which direction (😉). 

 

[Corraleno]

38 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

Here is the actual study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Interestingly, there is no mention of zinc that I could find, I thought the primary way HCQ helped was as a zinc ionophore.

One thing that's unusual about this study is that the HCQ-only group did MUCH better than the HCQ+AZ group, which I think is the opposite of the French studies. In this study, the death rate for HCQ+AZ group (20%) was actually a bit closer to the no treatment group (26%) than the HCQ-only group (13%).

I'm wondering about the data in Table 1 on median age — it looks like the median age for the no treatment group is "71" while the HCQ-only group is listed as "53"??? Am I reading that wrong? Is that a typo?

[Pen]

@ElizabethB  hcq also has direct antiviral activity, anti -thrombosis activity, and other aspects which may make it helpful even in the absence of zinc.

since we don’t get to know what zinc (and  vitamin D) status is, however, we don’t really know if patients in cohorts are sufficient or deficient in zinc before the Hcq treatment.  

 

[SoCal_Bear]

Texas daycare cases...

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/01/texas-day-care-coronavirus-cases-rising/?fbclid=IwAR1nE7_Hoetr5QIgH0SN3yccxURMZ477p6hAx5yVhzWdZ8_DUNH_DJMvHjo

[Terabith]

This is probably stupid, but I would really, seriously, legitimately like to see if there's any reduction in risk when people wear a mask over their mouth but not their nose, since that's how I see at least 60% of people wearing their masks (if they're wearing them at all) around here.  My gut feeling is that improper wearing probably invalidates mask benefits, but my husband said that's not necessarily the case and we'd need a study to determine if it helps at all.

Of course, apparently he trained himself to sneeze out of his mouth and not his nose.  

[vonfirmath]

4 minutes ago, Terabith said:

This is probably stupid, but I would really, seriously, legitimately like to see if there's any reduction in risk when people wear a mask over their mouth but not their nose, since that's how I see at least 60% of people wearing their masks (if they're wearing them at all) around here.  My gut feeling is that improper wearing probably invalidates mask benefits, but my husband said that's not necessarily the case and we'd need a study to determine if it helps at all.

Of course, apparently he trained himself to sneeze out of his mouth and not his nose.  

When I see masks around here, most of them actually do cover the nose.  (And even before Governor Abbot's declaration today -- over the last two weeks I've seen a marked increase in mask wearing.)

 

Edited July 3, 2020 by vonfirmath

[Terabith]

2 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

What if we wear them on our feet?   I think that, given that catching sneezes is a major point of the mask, not covering the mask has to impact effectiveness.  How could it be otherwise?  But I have heard that for nose breathing is maybe a little better than breathing through your mouth, so maybe a small benefit?

Well, Mike's point is that people vary in whether they breathe primarily through their mouth versus their nose.  But like I said, he apparently sneezes without using his nose, so I dunno?  I mean, clearly it would be far, far better if people wore them over both their noses and mouths, but that's apparently not going to happen.

[Pen]

https://youtu.be/w-NZeaEKRng

A short video of mike Hansen giving an overview summary of CV19 from his ICU doctor POV. 

[ElizabethB]

2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

One thing that's unusual about this study is that the HCQ-only group did MUCH better than the HCQ+AZ group, which I think is the opposite of the French studies. In this study, the death rate for HCQ+AZ group (20%) was actually a bit closer to the no treatment group (26%) than the HCQ-only group (13%).

I'm wondering about the data in Table 1 on median age — it looks like the median age for the no treatment group is "71" while the HCQ-only group is listed as "53"??? Am I reading that wrong? Is that a typo?

I don't think that was a typo.  That is quite a difference.

They also only gave both HCQ+AZ to those that were the worst off, so some confounding there, perhaps they were trying to limit antibiotic use, but it makes results tougher to figure out.

[frogger]

7 hours ago, TCB said:

Absolutely agree! And they do mostly wear them in the rooms. I wear mine in complete accordance with the rules and try my best to speak sense in the group. I don't know for sure as I don't discuss politics much at work but I have a strong sense that politics enters into this for some. Honestly, the main thing that I have learned from this experience is that we are, by and large, not as bright as we like to think we are! It's been a shock!

 

I really would like to say I'm shocked with you but...

 

What I've really learned is just how few people can actually communicate and I mean on both the giving and recieving end. They won't listen. They don't analyze what they read and see if it even makes sense and they will gladly spout garbage including rumors fit for People magazine and libel with zero evidence.  

[prairiewindmomma]

3 hours ago, Terabith said:

Wait, seriously?  What did HEB do with rationing?  

I have mad respect for HEB.  They started preparing for the epidemic in January.  

I ❤️ HEB too.

HEB reinstated rationing of key items (toilet paper, etc.) as they saw an uptick of disease activity—thus anticipating another run on the stores. 
 

HEB led out to protect Texans.

[Ausmumof3]

Dr Michael levitt says herd immunity should kick in at 500 -600 deaths per million.  As far as I can tell death rates for NY and NJ are higher than that.  Though maybe he means country level.  Also Belgian as a whole. 
 

Dr Anthony Bostom appears to not be a medical/epidemiological doctor but something to do with Islamic studies.

thats all I’ve had time for yet but will keep reading when I get to it.  I think deaths is a Lagging indicator means you won’t see results from the latest spikes yet?  We have chatted about some of the stuff up thread but I totally get that it takes a lot of time to catch up.

 Oh... also the guy who writes the article seems to be something to do with anti vax and autism:  do you know any more about that?

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Dr Michael levitt says herd immunity should kick in at 500 -600 deaths per million.  As far as I can tell death rates for NY and NJ are higher than that.  Though maybe he means country level.  Also Belgian as a whole. 
 

Dr Anthony Bostom appears to not be a medical/epidemiological doctor but something to do with Islamic studies.

thats all I’ve had time for yet but will keep reading when I get to it.  I think deaths is a Lagging indicator means you won’t see results from the latest spikes yet?  We have chatted about some of the stuff up thread but I totally get that it takes a lot of time to catch up.

 Oh... also the guy who writes the article seems to be something to do with anti vax and autism:  do you know any more about that?

The author of the linked article is an "entrepreneur" who self-published a book about how his son's autism was caused by vaccines. 

We already have 12 states where deaths exceed 500 per million, and the virus is continuing to spread despite lockdown measures. The population of NY state alone (20 million) is larger than many European countries, they already have 1,650 deaths per million — three times the "herd immunity threshold" this guy claims, and they just posted over 1000 new infections today, while still heavily shut down. So I call bullshit on the claim that 83% of humans are immune to Covid because they've had a cold, and therefore the herd immunity threshold for Covid is really only 10-20%, and there shouldn't be any lockdown at all.

But I'm glad that article was linked, because now I understand why Trump is still claiming that Covid is going to magically disappear all by itself. He told Fox Business on Wednesday that "“I think we’re gonna be very good with the coronavirus. I think that at some point that’s going to, sort of, just disappear – I hope.”  Good to know he's getting his advice from anti-vaxx bloggers instead of silly misguided epidemiologists. 🙄

Edited July 3, 2020 by Corraleno

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20104596v1.full.pdf
 

this study he quotes I think maybe relates to the thing we talked about where the spread rate is not consistent.  Some people spread to 20 or 30 others to none.  This may explain why restrictions on large crowds etc seem so effective at reducing spread.  Not an expert but if the spread rate is around 2-3 for everyone it seems that even normal grocery shopping is going to do that.  But if only some people spread or only at certain stages of the outbreak limiting the number of contacts to a very small number in that time makes a lot of sense.

theres also some thought that the cases in vic all stem from one super spread event which links to this.  

[Ausmumof3]

Worldwide passed 11,000,000 cases today.

[Ausmumof3]

The quoted article claims that New York is roughly at herd immunity.  To get there (if they are there there have been ~ 1600 deaths per Million people.  
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

If you apply that to the entire population of the US you get 532,000 deaths.  Only another 400,000 to go. 
 

maybe herd immunity will be achieved more easily in places with lower population density?  Maybe?

[TravelingChris]

19 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

But that would require robust contact tracing and testing - do we have that regarding schools in any meaningful way?

If a kid gets it from another kid at school, but is asymptomatic and not tested, and gives it to mom, who has only mild symptoms and is not tested, who gives it to a few coworkers, who get sick and ARE tested but they have no kids in school, what are the chances it actually gets traced back to the school or daycare?

I can confidently say that in my state there is ZERO chance that would be linked to the school/daycare. 

THIS.  In our area, there are mostly virtual camps though some camps are about to open with extreme social distancing (more than 6 feet), etc.  The daycares that are open aren't full at all.  SChools aren[t open and haven't been.  Most of the other kid activities have been out in the open with sun and heat--- all three factors reduce spreaad.

Our school district is opening up in some way in mid Aug.  We usually are using AC here definitely through all of September and on and off in OCt and even in Nov we may have to use it. 

[Ausmumof3]

“If virologists were driving policy about COVID-19 rather than public health officials, we’d all be Sweden right now, which means life would effectively be back to normal.”

Here’s some stuff that epidemiologists and virologists have to say

 

[Ausmumof3]

“We’d all be Sweden right now”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/swedish-pm-orders-inquiry-into-handling-of-virus-53rqkrg9b?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1593672799
 

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7?amp&r=US&IR=T
sweden right now

Edited July 3, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Corraleno]

11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20104596v1.full.pdf
 

this study he quotes I think maybe relates to the thing we talked about where the spread rate is not consistent.  Some people spread to 20 or 30 others to none.  This may explain why restrictions on large crowds etc seem so effective at reducing spread.  Not an expert but if the spread rate is around 2-3 for everyone it seems that even normal grocery shopping is going to do that.  But if only some people spread or only at certain stages of the outbreak limiting the number of contacts to a very small number in that time makes a lot of sense.

theres also some thought that the cases in vic all stem from one super spread event which links to this.  

I'm afraid I don't even understand the words in that article, let alone the math, lol. It does not appear to have been published (or even submitted for publication) in any journal, just self-published by two engineers, with no medical or epidemiological background as far as I can tell.

At any rate, the claim by the blogger in the linked post that Sweden's epidemic has been all but "extinguished," now that their death rate exceeds 500 per million, makes absolutely no sense considering that Swedish cases are currently increasing, not decreasing. Does this look like the pandemic is over in Sweden?

[Ausmumof3]

“145 Discussion
146 The concept of herd immunity is most commonly used in the design of vaccination programmes
147 (10). Defining the percentage of the population that must be immune to cause infection
148 incidences to decline, herd immunity thresholds constitute convenient targets for vaccination
149 coverage. In idealised scenarios of vaccines delivered at random and individuals mixing at
150 random, herd immunity thresholds are given by a simple formula (1 − 1⁄𝑅!) which, in the case
151 of SARS-CoV-2, suggests that 60-70% of the population should be immunised to halt spread
152 considering estimates of 𝑅! between 2.5 and 3. A crucial caveat in exporting these calculations
153 to immunization by natural infection, is that natural infection does not occur at random.
154 Individuals who are more susceptible or more exposed are more prone to be infected and become
155 immune earlier, which lowers the threshold. The herd immunity threshold declines sharply when
156 coefficients of variation increase from 0 to 2 and remains below 20% for more variable
157 populations.
158 Heterogeneity in the transmission of respiratory infections has traditionally focused on variation
159 in exposure summarised into age-structured contact matrices (11, 12). Besides overlooking
160 differences in susceptibility given exposure, the aggregation of individuals into age groups
161 curtails coefficients of variation with important downstream implications. Popular models based
162 on contact matrices use a coefficient of variation around 0.9 (13) and perform similarly to our
163 scenarios for 𝐶𝑉 = 1. Supported by existing estimates across infectious diseases, we argue that
164 𝐶𝑉 is generally higher and prognostics more optimistic than currently assumed. However
165 plausible, this needs to be confirmed for the current COVID-19 pandemic and, given its
166 relevance to policy decisions, it should be set as a priority.
167 Interventions themselves have potential to manipulate individual variation. Current social
168 distancing measures may be argued to either increase or decrease variation in exposure,
169 depending on the compliance of highly-susceptible or highly-connected individuals in relation to
170 the average. A deep understanding of these patterns is crucial not only to develop more accurate
171 predictive models, but also to refine control strategies and to interpret data resulting from
172 ongoing serological surveys.
173 Based on the spectrum of current knowledge, a high level of pragmatism may be required in
174 policy responses to serological surveys. On the one hand, if CV is very low, the most stringent
175 control measures would need to be continued for suppression of the epidemic. The other side of
176 that coin is a scenario where keeping only the mildest control measures (protecting the elderly to
177 reduce mortality rates) is optimal. It would therefore be imperative to conduct longitudinal
178 serological studies in representative samples of the population, as control measures are relaxed.
179 Given a percent positivity in an initial survey, the speed at which that figure increases after
180 control measures are eased would reveal what the most likely value of CV is, and simultaneously
181 advise which control measures should be enforced”

discussion from the study quoted in the article to support 20pc herd immunity (I think we have discussed that here before) 

this is much more “this may be what is going on” and much less “we definitely only need 20pc for herd immunity” than its presented in the linked article.  In fact they describe needing to monitor extremely closely when opening up and adjust as needed.

[Ausmumof3]

19 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I'm afraid I don't even understand the words in that article, let alone the math, lol. It does not appear to have been published (or even submitted for publication) in any journal, just self-published by two engineers, with no medical or epidemiological background as far as I can tell.

At any rate, the claim by the blogger in the linked post that Sweden's epidemic has been all but "extinguished," now that their death rate exceeds 500 per million, makes absolutely no sense considering that Swedish cases are currently increasing, not decreasing. Does this look like the pandemic is over in Sweden?

No.  Although there death rate is consistently declining still so he is accurate in that.  I believe they improved measures around protecting nursing homes so that may have had an impact.

[Ausmumof3]

Sorry to keep spamming the thread - but with regard to schools

“Staff and students have been placed into quarantine at a school in Melbourne's west following a large rise in coronavirus infections.

The outbreak at Al-Taqwa College in Truganina has grown to 23 cases after a further five new infections were recorded overnight.”

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.01.182550v1.full.pdf
 

preprint only autopsy results

these bits were interesting

“Viral RNA could also be detected in low to very high amounts in the samples from the
endocrine organs, the urinary tract, the nervous system, and the reproductive system. Interestingly, the samples of the patients 1, 2, 6 and 7 who were treated with lopinavir/ritonavir were tested
negative.
The same distribution pattern among the patients was observed regarding the viral RNA in the blood. Apart from the patients 8-11 who were not under intensive care (patients 8-10) or did not die of COVID-19 (patient 11), it is noticeable that among the patients receiving intensive care prior to
death (patients 1-7) only the patients 3, 4 and 5 were tested positive for the blood, while the patients 1, 2, 6 and 7 tested negative. The latter patients were treated with lopinavir/ritonavir, so that an effect of antiviral medication on preventing viremia may be suggested.”

and this sounds scary though I don’t really know how to interpret it 

 “The patients with viral RNA in the blood also showed viral RNA in the bone marrow. The patients 1, 8 and 9 were negative in the blood but positive in the bone marrow. Patient 9 showed by far the highest viral loads in the bone marrow. Histology of the bone marrow apart from hypercellularity, left shift and an increased number of megakarocytes showed a significant amount of hemophagocytosis (Fig. 6b). Hemophagocyosis is a morphological feature of the makrophage activation syndrome (MAS) or the hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH)43,44. The clinical characteristics of COVID-19, including very high ferritin levels and very high proinflammatory interleukins, resemble MAS and HLH45 and have already encouraged therapeutically attempts .Further studies are needed in order to clarify this aspect.”

[Corraleno]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

No.  Although there death rate is consistently declining still so he is accurate in that.  I believe they improved measures around protecting nursing homes so that may have had an impact.

Doesn't Sweden "backfill" their deaths, like Florida does, so it always looks like it's going down?  At any rate, the upswing in cases only began about 3.5 weeks ago, so I wouldn't expect to see a big increase in deaths yet. And hopefully they are protecting the elderly much better at this point, so the daily death toll won't get back to earlier levels even as cases increase. But even if they are protecting the most vulnerable, I don't see how they can add 30,000 new cases in one month and not have any increase in deaths.

Their testing rate is fairly low, and the positive rate is quite high, so their CFR is also quite high — it was 12% as of May 31st, when they had 39,000 cases. They added 30,000 more cases in the month of June, so even if we assume a lower CFR of say 5-10% of those 30,000 new cases, that's another 1500-3000 deaths in the near future, and more in August if their cases continue to rise in July like they did in June. They are currently 5th in the world for per capita deaths, and their per capita cases and deaths are increasing faster than any of the four countries "ahead" of them (Belgium, UK, Spain, Italy). If their CFR stayed at 12% of those 30K new cases, they would have the worst per capita death rate in the world by the end of July. 

[ktgrok]

10 hours ago, square_25 said:

To be fair, if you just watch the reports, it’s clear super spreaders are a major driver of spread. That was the whole “dispersion factor” thing, right? (I may be remembering the term wrong.)

Right. Which is why when I see studies of say, 10 kids, or whatever, it is not meaningful. If none of those 10 are superspreaders, but some other kid is, we won't get meaningful data. When only  a small number of people do most of the spreading, you have to look at large numbers of people to see the pattern. 

It's like that Australian study that looked at 9 students and 9 teachers - none spread it, so they concluded kids don't spread it. Except, the teachers didn't spread it to anyone either....and yet that doesn't mean that adults don't spread it - we know they do. It meant those particular 9 adults were not superspreaders. And same with the kids. 

It's why I really need to see more info on schools, on kids. 

[Wheres Toto]

8 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

I really hope that that's true.  Because I can forgive people for not being that bright.  I feel like the other possibility is that people understand that they are risking people's lives, and they just don't care.  I think I'd rather live in a world where the former is the problem, than the latter.  

Unfortunately I'm seeing both.