wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

Vic update time has been pushed back which has me worried 

[Ausmumof3]

How to decontaminate an n95 (includes instructions for an Insta pot - I figured this was something the hive needed).

https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/multi-cooker_faq_v6_2020_06_22.pdf

[Pen]

46 minutes ago, square_25 said:

But that's like, in Texas, right? As we can see, Texas has a problem. 

 

No. More widespread (nearest to you that  I have heard had released info on positive cases is Rutgers.  Nearest university to me, UofO has refused to release info afaik.) 

 

”

From the Washington Post … Over the past two weeks, as college athletes have returned to campuses to work out and prepare for sports later this year, a handful of them have tested positive for the coronavirus.

Arkansas State. Houston. Boise State. Iowa State. Oklahoma State. More than a dozen schools in all.

Just how many positive tests isn’t known, however, because college officials are debating exactly what to tell the public. Nearly half the 66 Football Bowl Subdivision members that responded to an Associated Press inquiry last week said they were still deciding whether to disclose the number of athletes with positive tests — and just over half aren’t going to release numbers at all.

...  “

Edited June 28, 2020 by Pen

[lewelma]

Thanks guys to giving me some more things to think about.  

Good idea, Pen, to look at what we know of impacts to lung and cognitive function. 

Yes, I think he wants to be in the USA, even with a pandemic.  The time zone problem is a real problem.  He doesn't seem to care too much if it is online or not. It is just the time zone problem.

I agree that the dorm situation is very likely to go belly up. My sister who lives in VA has offered to take him at the last minute and his cousin is super fun and a senior in highschool interested in majoring in physics. So that could work. They do live in the boonies, and he won't have his full drivers licence.  But then again, where would he go if he knows no one. I think the better approach would be to find an apartment with his friends.  They are starting to put this together, but it is just tricky without having all the info we need. 

[Pen]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Most of those are definitely from states with problems, though. 

 

 

It doesn’t imo bode well for university students not getting the virus.  

Again I do realize that MIT doesn’t tend to be a similar type of school.  But if hoping that 17-26 year olds who are likely to be encountered frequently are in a specially low infection age group, I would not count on that. 

I expect the navy ships have only a little older typical  age population and were not immune. 

[Pen]

3 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Thanks guys to giving me some more things to think about.  

Good idea, Pen, to look at what we know of impacts to lung and cognitive function. 

Yes, I think he wants to be in the USA, even with a pandemic.  The time zone problem is a real problem.  He doesn't seem to care too much if it is online or not. It is just the time zone problem.

I agree that the dorm situation is very likely to go belly up. My sister who lives in VA has offered to take him at the last minute and his cousin is super fun and a senior in highschool interested in majoring in physics. So that could work. They do live in the boonies, and he won't have his full drivers licence.  But then again, where would he go if he knows no one. I think the better approach would be to find an apartment with his friends.  They are starting to put this together, but it is just tricky without having all the info we need. 

 

An apartment with friends sounds like a good idea.  They probably need a plan of how to handle things if one or more get sick. 

[Matryoshka]

11 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Well Rutgers is in that article. 

But all those schools are big sports schools.  They aren't MIT, that's for sure.  

Yeah, but what worries me about this is that there just keeps being spread as soon as you bring groups back together.  Not sure sports vs classrooms and dorms is in any way reassuring. .. and it kind of doesn't matter what state the school is in if the students are coming I from all over...

[lewelma]

Honestly, I am assuming if ds goes back that he will get it. If we as a family can make peace with that, then he will go. Dorm or apartment, either is more risky than here. 

[Matryoshka]

9 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Thanks guys to giving me some more things to think about.  

Good idea, Pen, to look at what we know of impacts to lung and cognitive function. 

Yes, I think he wants to be in the USA, even with a pandemic.  The time zone problem is a real problem.  He doesn't seem to care too much if it is online or not. It is just the time zone problem.

I agree that the dorm situation is very likely to go belly up. My sister who lives in VA has offered to take him at the last minute and his cousin is super fun and a senior in highschool interested in majoring in physics. So that could work. They do live in the boonies, and he won't have his full drivers licence.  But then again, where would he go if he knows no one. I think the better approach would be to find an apartment with his friends.  They are starting to put this together, but it is just tricky without having all the info we need. 

An apartment I think is a much better idea. I was sooooo happy all my kids were already in apartments when this hit in the spring.  It also allows them to avoid the dining commons...

Edited June 28, 2020 by Matryoshka

[Pen]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, yeah, I agree. I think kids in their late teens are likely enough to get the virus. They just aren't that likely to get very sick. 

One of our babysitters got the virus, and she's in her early 20s. She's fresh out of college. She was quite sick, but didn't have to go to the hospital or anything. 

 

How was she cared for?

was she able to look after herself or was someone else available? 

[Corraleno]

26 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Do you know which states they were in? 

Texas, Florida, North & South Carolina, Nevada, NJ, Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia...

ETA: these are just schools where it's been found in football players or other sports teams that are currently on campus. I think most, if not all, of these schools are online only for classes at this point, so there are very very few students on campus — it's mostly just athletes training for the upcoming season. So, in theory, it should be "safer" now than it will be in the fall with tens of thousands of students back on campus. 😕

Edited June 28, 2020 by Corraleno

[Terabith]

I read an article a couple days ago, but I can't remember where it was.  It said that kids under 15 seem pretty low risk to get and spread the virus, and 20 and up seem to contract and spread it at rates similar to older adults (but with less severe symptoms/ more asymptomatic people).  Things seem to change dramatically between ages 15 and 20, but they are not sure exactly how and when.

But I can't remember where I read it.  

[Selkie]

1 minute ago, Corraleno said:

Texas, Florida, North & South Carolina, Nevada, NJ, Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia...

Iowa also.

[Matryoshka]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Is it spreading in the football practices or is it just that they keep finding positive kids? 

Although I would assuming that yes, kids that age would spread it. 

Good question.  You'd think they'd have the kids quarantine before starting practice,  then make a social bubble, but just doesn't seem to be happening. ..

[Matryoshka]

1 minute ago, Terabith said:

I read an article a couple days ago, but I can't remember where it was.  It said that kids under 15 seem pretty low risk to get and spread the virus, and 20 and up seem to contract and spread it at rates similar to older adults (but with less severe symptoms/ more asymptomatic people).  Things seem to change dramatically between ages 15 and 20, but they are not sure exactly how and when.

But I can't remember where I read it.  

Might have been somewhere here, because I think I read that too... too many threads all moving so fast!!

[Kassia]

9 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

One of our babysitters got the virus, and she's in her early 20s. She's fresh out of college. She was quite sick, but didn't have to go to the hospital or anything. 

 

My son's girlfriend's sister is a nurse fresh out of college and she tested positive.  She was also quite sick, but didn't need hospitalization.

We are pretty sure one of our sons had it (he's 25).  He also was pretty sick - mostly fever and extreme fatigue for several weeks.  He said he was "sick and tired of being sick and tired."  

 

[Pen]

 

Much more .  Massachusetts is having around 230 new cases and 30 new deaths per day.   It seems  “low” to some people, I guess as compared to how it was awhile back or as compared to other states now.    

Its daily death number is about 1/3 the average daily deaths by car crash for the whole United States.  

To me what Americans are regarding as “low” lately seems like wishful thinking. 

 

3 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Honestly, I am assuming if ds goes back that he will get it. If we as a family can make peace with that, then he will go. Dorm or apartment, either is more risky than here. 

 

I would probably favor the year off idea, but apartment seems probably less risky - and less likely to have sudden move out requirement - than dorm living. 

[Pen]

 

@matrips not sure this is it, but just arrived:

It is the right one, but not as specific or clear as I had hoped for. 

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Pen

[Matryoshka]

Just now, square_25 said:

I think what's happening is they are testing all the players before starting out, no? I guess they don't want to quarantine and would rather just test (although that seems way less reliable.) 

Yeah, that doesn't seem to be panning out well where they've tried that... the slow motion train wreck that is this virus is one of the things that makes it so hard to handle.  Constantly having to have a 2-week window of isolation before joining a new group or when traveling to a new place just doesn't at all fit with the fast-paced way of life we've all been accustomed to... but these pesky false negatimes and slow start of symptoms seems to make just testing unfortunately inadequate. ..

[Terabith]

9 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Might have been somewhere here, because I think I read that too... too many threads all moving so fast!!

It definitely was, because dmmetler said that it made her feel better about going back to teaching.  But I have no idea what thread it was on!

[Matryoshka]

6 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Much more .  Massachusetts is having around 230 new cases and 30 new deaths per day.   It seems  “low” to some people, I guess as compared to how it was awhile back or as compared to other states now.    

Its daily death number is about 1/3 the average daily deaths by car crash for the whole United States.  

To me what Americans are regarding as “low” lately seems like wishful thinking. 

Yep, everything is relative.  Those numbers are so, so, so much lower than they were here - and at least so far they continue to go down, which is also good. I am very much hoping that doesn't change when we move into our next 'phase'.

[Wheres Toto]

18 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Texas, Florida, North & South Carolina, Nevada, NJ, Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia...

ETA: these are just schools where it's been found in football players or other sports teams that are currently on campus. I think most, if not all, of these schools are online only for classes at this point, so there are very very few students on campus — it's mostly just athletes training for the upcoming season. So, in theory, it should be "safer" now than it will be in the fall with tens of thousands of students back on campus. 😕

I'm surprised Rutgers is back.  I thought things were still pretty locked down there, although I guess the state did open for sports.  We do 4-H through Rutgers and we're still not allowed to have any in-person activities.

[Terabith]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I have the feeling it's all going to be a crazy kind of dance, where you'll have to open and shut things... 

Except pretty much all leaders have said they won't be shutting anything down again.

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Texas, Florida, North & South Carolina, Nevada, NJ, Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia...

ETA: these are just schools where it's been found in football players or other sports teams that are currently on campus. I think most, if not all, of these schools are online only for classes at this point, so there are very very few students on campus — it's mostly just athletes training for the upcoming season. So, in theory, it should be "safer" now than it will be in the fall with tens of thousands of students back on campus. 😕

And TN, based on local coverage. There have been a few cases reported among football players at the University here. I don't know if they came back with it or caught it while here, though. Classes are online, except for a few grad students doing research in labs. 

[Guest]

I don't know that leaders will shut down,but I fully expect schools to do so. I am trying to put my plans in place for virtual group music classes for when, not if, the schools close and kids need something to do.

[Terabith]

Here it is!

POST BY DAVE BLAKE JR

A conversation - me and a faculty member boarded in Infectious Disease. So, I use data science tools professionally and have been following COVID-19 and am med school faculty, but my friend who joined me for lunch yesterday is part infectious disease doctor for a living. He is trained in epidemiology and virology, at least a little, and board certified in infectious disease, one of seven such people at AU-health who are so boarded.  He is one of the 2-3 people in the CSRA who know the most about infectious disease. What did we talk about? In part, COVID19.
     First, we discussed how we both anticipated it would follow epidemiological trends for summer. Infectious disease doesn't do well in summer historically. The 67-8 flu died down in summer, as did 1918. But COVID-19 laughs at summer. It is showing an R of 2 in Oklahoma right now, which is higher than any influenza ever shows in winter!   Very surprising. 
    Second, he was surprised no one in the adult Emergency Room staff has tested positive. It looks like regular masks must have some protection. He is trying to get funding to do serum antibody testing on our at risk medical staff to study their rate of infection more properly.   
    Third, I suggested he instead study age demographics of the community for serum prevalence. We really could benefit from more information about the rate of infection of kids. A publication last week claims people under age 20 are infected at half the rate as those over 20. It would be really helpful especially to study the bridge between 15 year olds (who are rarely infected) and 20 year olds (who get infected at the same rate as much older folks). 
      He has seen some studies on the target of COVID-19, being poorly expressed in the nasal epithelium of youth, which provides a plausible explanation for their low susceptibility. They simply don't have many ACE2 receptors in their noses. If the nasal ACE2 receptor is the primary route of infection, this age-dependent change explains why they don't often get infected. 
      Next we talk about what to do in schools. We both agree colleges and universities are headed for the same outcome as Fort Benning - 70-80% of the kids who go on campus with normal activities will be infected in a month. With some restrictions, maybe two months. It just sets up horribly. We both agree elementary and middle schools should be just fine. Let the kids do what they normally do. In high schools there is some uncertainty. Those juniors and seniors - do they transmit more like 20 year olds, or more like 15 year olds? It probably falls in an in-between zone where the two of us would like more information before advocating anything. 
      Part of the issue with kids, also, is the contact tracing data. In other nations, they have traced out many thousands of times/places where a primary donor gave COVID19 to one or more receivers. The DONOR is VERY RARELY under age 20, which suggests even through high school, kids become infected at lower rates, but rarely transmit to others, and rarely get severely sick. In the context of a  pandemic, school in person seems like a really good idea for elementary and middle school, while high school is a little dicier, and colleges are a non-starter. In-person school is not "safe", but unlikely to stoke up the rate of infection locally. Kids at school can still bring COVID-19 home, they are just a LOT less likely to do so than 20-39 year olds. 
     We are seeing more younger inpatients with COVID19, but the distribution of the patient ages in our ICU is still the same - all over age 50. We are NOT seeing problems with hospital staff getting infected at the hospital. We have identified aerosoliziing procedures, and have strict PPE requirements for those, and only people under age 50 are allowed to perform them (however some older doctors still do because they are pretty dern stubborn). 
      We both agree uniform, 100% mask use "indoors" in public spaces is appropriate public health policy. Hope you find this summary useful.

[TracyP]

If anybody finds anecdotes helpful.... I know 13 people who had COVID.

6 were kids (under 15 yo) - all had no symptoms or mild symptoms. Low grade fevers in a couple, diarrhea for one

6 were between 30-45. They had symptoms like low grade fevers, fatigue, and dry cough except for one woman in her early 30s. She had several days of high fever and horrible muscle aches. She also had hallucinations.

1 woman was in her early 60s. She had a slight cough and a little fatigue. She is my mom's coworker and told my mom she would have not even paid attention to it if she hadn't been tested. 

All these cases cleared up within days. They have all been resolved for a month or more with no lingering effects. 

[TracyP]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Hmmmmm, interesting. I don't think any of the cases I know about went away this easily. My anecdotes are a lot less pleasant. 

@CuriousMomof3 -- maybe some viral load evidence for you? 😉 I'd imagine in NYC, viral loads were higher. 

Yes, and I have spent a fair amount of time wondering why these cases are so different than what you hear in the news. Maybe viral load? I also suspect that this is more typical when testing is easier to come by and you pick up the mild cases. 

[TracyP]

Just now, CuriousMomof3 said:

I'm surprised that many of them were children.  Was there a cluster that they were part of?  Or a family?

Two groups were families of 5

[Pen]

Idk. Massachusetts is said to be on track to contain Covid 19– I hope that remains true.  I think it’s contact tracing has been better than some other places. But apparently contact tracers are being laid off now— seems premature to me. 

 I expect it will be harder for Massachusetts to hold onto a dwindling case number than for Australia given porous borders.  

 

[GoodGrief]

39 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Yes, and I have spent a fair amount of time wondering why these cases are so different than what you hear in the news. Maybe viral load? I also suspect that this is more typical when testing is easier to come by and you pick up the mild cases. 

FWIW, of the three people I have known personally who had Covid, two were in NYC (living right across from Central Park, actually; I visited them last August). One woman was in her early 30s, one woman in her late 50s. Mother and daughter, so they lived in the same apartment, and the mother was (is) an ER nurse. The other case was in Minnesota. Flu-like symptoms, and full recovery within 10-14 days without lingering effects.

[Melissa in Australia]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

People waiting for testing in Texas 

According to my son, it us universally understood that you cannot catch things while waiting in line

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Terabith said:

It definitely was, because dmmetler said that it made her feel better about going back to teaching.  But I have no idea what thread it was on!

I think it may be this post from Dave Blake Jr:

A conversation - me and a faculty member boarded in Infectious Disease. So, I use data science tools professionally and have been following COVID-19 and am med school faculty, but my friend who joined me for lunch yesterday is part infectious disease doctor for a living. He is trained in epidemiology and virology, at least a little, and board certified in infectious disease, one of seven such people at AU-health who are so boarded.  He is one of the 2-3 people in the CSRA who know the most about infectious disease. What did we talk about? In part, COVID19.
     First, we discussed how we both anticipated it would follow epidemiological trends for summer. Infectious disease doesn't do well in summer historically. The 67-8 flu died down in summer, as did 1918. But COVID-19 laughs at summer. It is showing an R of 2 in Oklahoma right now, which is higher than any influenza ever shows in winter!   Very surprising. 
    Second, he was surprised no one in the adult Emergency Room staff has tested positive. It looks like regular masks must have some protection. He is trying to get funding to do serum antibody testing on our at risk medical staff to study their rate of infection more properly.   
    Third, I suggested he instead study age demographics of the community for serum prevalence. We really could benefit from more information about the rate of infection of kids. A publication last week claims people under age 20 are infected at half the rate as those over 20. It would be really helpful especially to study the bridge between 15 year olds (who are rarely infected) and 20 year olds (who get infected at the same rate as much older folks). 
      He has seen some studies on the target of COVID-19, being poorly expressed in the nasal epithelium of youth, which provides a plausible explanation for their low susceptibility. They simply don't have many ACE2 receptors in their noses. If the nasal ACE2 receptor is the primary route of infection, this age-dependent change explains why they don't often get infected. 
      Next we talk about what to do in schools. We both agree colleges and universities are headed for the same outcome as Fort Benning - 70-80% of the kids who go on campus with normal activities will be infected in a month. With some restrictions, maybe two months. It just sets up horribly. We both agree elementary and middle schools should be just fine. Let the kids do what they normally do. In high schools there is some uncertainty. Those juniors and seniors - do they transmit more like 20 year olds, or more like 15 year olds? It probably falls in an in-between zone where the two of us would like more information before advocating anything. 
      Part of the issue with kids, also, is the contact tracing data. In other nations, they have traced out many thousands of times/places where a primary donor gave COVID19 to one or more receivers. The DONOR is VERY RARELY under age 20, which suggests even through high school, kids become infected at lower rates, but rarely transmit to others, and rarely get severely sick. In the context of a  pandemic, school in person seems like a really good idea for elementary and middle school, while high school is a little dicier, and colleges are a non-starter. In-person school is not "safe", but unlikely to stoke up the rate of infection locally. Kids at school can still bring COVID-19 home, they are just a LOT less likely to do so than 20-39 year olds. 
     We are seeing more younger inpatients with COVID19, but the distribution of the patient ages in our ICU is still the same - all over age 50. We are NOT seeing problems with hospital staff getting infected at the hospital. We have identified aerosoliziing procedures, and have strict PPE requirements for those, and only people under age 50 are allowed to perform them (however some older doctors still do because they are pretty dern stubborn). 
      We both agree uniform, 100% mask use "indoors" in public spaces is appropriate public health policy. Hope you find this summary useful.

 

ETA: Haha just saw you found it already!

 

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by TCB

[Melissa in Australia]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

That one had tons and tons and tons of cases. Like, 100. I haven't heard about a single outbreak at an elementary school yet, and I would think little kids would be worse at social distancing. To me, it's basically conclusive evidence that teens aren't like little kids with spreading it. 

There is evidence here in Vic of a primary school student spreading it to  teachers at school. In the last week a few primary and secondary schos have had to close. 

The one secondary school had multiple cases so all staff, students and parents of students got tested on Friday. 

Secondary school here goes from year 7 to year 12

Edited June 28, 2020 by Melissa in Australia

[Melissa in Australia]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Vic update time has been pushed back which has me worried 

49 new cases in Vic 

[Pen]

1 minute ago, Melissa in Australia said:

There is evidence here in Vic of a primary school student spreading it to a teacher at school

 

@square_25

Iirc both France and Israel have had school outbreaks. 

 

[TCB]

13 minutes ago, GoodGrief1 said:

FWIW, of the three people I have known personally who had Covid, two were in NYC (living right across from Central Park, actually; I visited them last August). One woman was in her early 30s, one woman in her late 50s. Mother and daughter, so they lived in the same apartment, and the mother was (is) an ER nurse. The other case was in Minnesota. Flu-like symptoms, and full recovery within 10-14 days without lingering effects.

Interesting. Other than people I looked after at work, I know 2 friends/family who had it and they spent 13 and 30 days on vents - Oxford, England, and Atlanta, GA

What is so very bizarre about this virus is the huge range of experiences those who have it go through.

[Pen]

A student at an open summer school in Joplin MO— but looks like maybe no spread to others, and a quick shut down for deep cleaning 

[Pen]

3 minutes ago, TCB said:

Interesting. Other than people I looked after at work, I know 2 friends/family who had it and they spent 13 and 30 days on vents - Oxford, England, and Atlanta, GA

What is so very bizarre about this virus is the huge range of experiences those who have it go through.

 

It would be really nice to know if there’s any thing that can be learned about what to do / not do so as to be in the mild illness, all fine in 2 weeks group  versus the more serious forms of the illness.  

Maybe if no studies are done on that, information could be crowd sourced.

vitamin status, viral load, and various other factors that might be relevant could perhaps be considered

 

[Melissa in Australia]

According to the premier of vic, several people got coronavirus from sharing a cigarette lighter,  some from car pooling, and lots of family spread

[Pen]

18 minutes ago, square_25 said:

The Israel one was for a high school. How about the France one? 

 

Wasnt clear to me— and neither was it clear who had spread it to whom

[Pen]

36 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

According to the premier of vic, several people got coronavirus from sharing a cigarette lighter,  some from car pooling, and lots of family spread

 

From a cigarette lighter?!

[Matryoshka]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

Idk. Massachusetts is said to be on track to contain Covid 19– I hope that remains true.  I think it’s contact tracing has been better than some other places. But apparently contact tracers are being laid off now— seems premature to me. 

 I expect it will be harder for Massachusetts to hold onto a dwindling case number than for Australia given porous borders.  

I agree it will be nigh impossible for us to keep our numbers down if other places in the US don't.  If nothing else, we do have tons of colleges here that unless they all do a 180 and do all-online we'll have a huge influx of people coming in soon.

I hadn't heard that they were laying off contact tracers here already - I sure hope that isn't true.  They're going to be needed more than ever in the next phase of reopening. That's how we stay safe while increasing activity - more contact tracing,  not less! I believe They also left one field hospital up even though it's empty now, in case of future surges. I don't think anyone thinks we're done with this... Hammer and dance...

Edited June 28, 2020 by Matryoshka

[EmseB]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

It would be really nice to know if there’s any thing that can be learned about what to do / not do so as to be in the mild illness, all fine in 2 weeks group  versus the more serious forms of the illness.  

Maybe if no studies are done on that, information could be crowd sourced.

vitamin status, viral load, and various other factors that might be relevant could perhaps be considered

 

Yup, the two people I know who have had it have both been women over the age of 40. One had a scratchy throat for a couple days, one had a 99* fever and sneezing for a day. Opposite sides of the US. In the former case, she got it and no one else in her family did (husband and three kids; they were all tested at least twice once she tested +).

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

49 new cases in Vic 

To be honest this is kind of a relief though still high.  I was getting worried there was going to be a huge jump today.

[Ausmumof3]

So far on Aus in the last couple of days from what I can see there has been one emergency nurse, 2 Flinders street station staff and 3 airline staff.  

[Ausmumof3]

@lewelma

 

there is some discussion here as to what this data means, keeping in mind it’s for hospital admissions not all Covid positive.

 

 

Edited June 28, 2020 by Ausmumof3

NYT is reporting that 43% of all US covid deaths are nursing home residents, even though they are 11% of the cases. I just can't imagine. 

[frogger]

Alaska currently has a hospitalization rate of 3%. With only one person on a vent that is .3%. This is just for confirmed current active cases.  We have a number of conspiracy theorists or people who don't want to be quarantined also so the percentage is probably even smaller than that.

Because states that have hospitals filling up have such high percentages of tests coming back positive, I think we can safely assume they simply have way way higher infection than case rates especially since Arizona is saying such a large number of those hospitalized are younger so just age difference doesn't make up for it.

 

 

I would need to see the breakdown of ages to overlie it with Ausmumof3's chart but we are talking 5% mortality rate out of the 3% of people who are hospitalized so around .15% .  Of course, that 3% is off a little since it's for all age groups and I'm not sure where to get %hospitalized by age group.  Our biggest age groups are 20-60 for actual infection rates though. 

Edited June 28, 2020 by frogger

[JennyD]

9 hours ago, square_25 said:

The Israel one was for a high school. How about the France one? 

 

The big superspreader event in Israel was at 7-12th grade middle/high school, but there have been hundreds of infections throughout the educational system, from daycare through senior high.  (Just looked up the numbers -- 873 cases in schools, 230 schools shut, 22,850 in quarantine.)

The extent to which young children spread (or didn't spread) the virus to one another in the school setting hasn't been reported yet, and anecdotally it certainly seems like family transmission was much more significant, but anyone looking for an optimistic take on school reopenings should definitely not look to Israel.  It is been an absolute disaster.  

Edited June 28, 2020 by JennyD