wuhan - coronavirus

[TracyP]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

Right. Which is why when I see studies of say, 10 kids, or whatever, it is not meaningful. If none of those 10 are superspreaders, but some other kid is, we won't get meaningful data. When only  a small number of people do most of the spreading, you have to look at large numbers of people to see the pattern. 

It's like that Australian study that looked at 9 students and 9 teachers - none spread it, so they concluded kids don't spread it. Except, the teachers didn't spread it to anyone either....and yet that doesn't mean that adults don't spread it - we know they do. It meant those particular 9 adults were not superspreaders. And same with the kids. 

It's why I really need to see more info on schools, on kids. 

I agree with a lot of what you are saying here. I definitely want to see more data. But I'm not sure these studies are completely meaningless just because they are small. Like the 9yo in France who didn't spread it to any of his 170 contacts. Is it definitive proof? No way. But it is another little piece of the puzzle that is pointing in the same direction.

By the same argument, the 2 hairdressers who didn't spread covid are completely meaningless. I would disagree - I think those cases are meaningful even if they are not definitive proof on their own.

[chiguirre]

There's an excellent article in today's WaPo about the personal practices of a bunch of epidemiologists and public health experts:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/how-fauci-5-other-health-specialists-deal-with-covid-19-risks-in-their-everyday-lives/2020/07/02/d4665ed6-b6fb-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html#comments-wrapper

In general, they mask everywhere they're near other people. They go to the supermarket. They get their mail. They'd go to an outdoor pool if it's not crowded. They would not eat in a restaurant but they get take out. They wouldn't fly or use public transportation. They've gotten hair cuts if they need them. They've skipped routine doctor and dentist visits. They bring their packages in and don't disinfect them although they do wash their hands after opening.

This made me feel a whole lot better about the decisions I've made.

[Pen]

The current strain of the virus is possibly more infectious than earlier so we also need to be careful about extrapolation from what may have happened with spreading a few months ago. 

 

 

 

 

14 hours ago, calbear said:

Texas daycare cases...

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/01/texas-day-care-coronavirus-cases-rising/?fbclid=IwAR1nE7_Hoetr5QIgH0SN3yccxURMZ477p6hAx5yVhzWdZ8_DUNH_DJMvHjo

 

[Pen]

14 hours ago, Terabith said:

This is probably stupid, but I would really, seriously, legitimately like to see if there's any reduction in risk when people wear a mask over their mouth but not their nose, since that's how I see at least 60% of people wearing their masks (if they're wearing them at all) around here.  My gut feeling is that improper wearing probably invalidates mask benefits, but my husband said that's not necessarily the case and we'd need a study to determine if it helps at all.

Of course, apparently he trained himself to sneeze out of his mouth and not his nose.  

 

I would guess a bit if they kept it over mouths for talking.  Also coughs would be caught.  

[Terabith]

I'm wondering about why New York had such a big jump from the middle of March to the end of March, when other parts of the country with the same number of cases in mid March did not.  I was looking back at numbers.  On March 11, didn't New York have like 200 cases?  But it was up to like 25,000 two or three weeks later.  I'm wondering if the big difference was the announced "travel ban" with Europe in mid March?  I remember those pictures of airports, with thousands of people crammed together.  New York is a major hub.  Could it have been that that made the difference between the explosion of cases in NY versus say, Washington state?

[ElizabethB]

36 minutes ago, Pen said:

The current strain of the virus is possibly more infectious than earlier so we also need to be careful about extrapolation from what may have happened with spreading a few months ago. 

Also, recent HCQ studies have shown less deaths for Black patients, also females.  Females is the same, but the Black data is interesting--new strain less deadly for Black patients? HCQ especially helpful for Black patients?  Random chance?  (But big swing from more deaths to less deaths.)

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-05983-z

Study not well written, data not well presented, I have concerns overall, but:

"Decreased risk of in-hospital mortality was associated with female sex (HR 0.84, CI 0.77–0.90), African American race (HR 0.78 CI 0.65–0.95), and hydroxychloroquine use (HR 0.53, CI 0.41–0.67)."

The Detroit study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Detroit study better written, data clearer, stats seem sound. Found white patients had increased mortality, opposite of what was seen in the past.

"From Cox regression modeling, predictors of mortality were age>65 years (HR:2.6 [95% CI:1.9-3.3]), white race (HR:1.7 [95% CI:1.4-2.1]), CKD (HR:1.7 [95%CI:1.4-2.1]), reduced O2 saturation level on admission (HR:1.5 [95%CI:1.1-2.1]), and ventilator use during admission (HR: 2.2 [95%CI:1.4-3.3]). Hydroxychloroquine provided a 66% hazard ratio reduction, and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin 71% compared to neither treatment (p < 0.001)."

 

Edited July 3, 2020 by ElizabethB

[JadeOrchidSong]

On 6/30/2020 at 11:24 AM, Pen said:

@Arcadia @square_25 @mathnerd @dmmetler

My Happy Mask came.  I like it a lot.

I ordered two for my mom (most vulnerable of us so she could switch it out if needed) and one for my son.

I think they would be especially helpful for people in a big city or with underlying health issues or both. In addition to maybe being light and comfortable for kids.

the filter membrane must be directional , in breath is easier than out it seems to me ... 

I hope they are as protective for wearer as the site says!

I am looking for good, protective masks for my boys and my husband. My youngest son is going to a three week summer math class, 3 hours/day and is required to wear a mask. I have some KN95 masks, but I think a cloth mask is more durable and comfortable. I saw this Happy Mask mentioned in another thread, but couldn't find the thread now. So you mom has had this mask for a couple days now. What's her thought? I need to order one now, but would like to check what actual users say first. Thanks! 

[Pen]

33 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

Also, recent HCQ studies have shown less deaths for Black patients, also females.  Females is the same, but the Black data is interesting--new strain less deadly for Black patients? HCQ especially helpful for Black patients?  Random chance?  (But big swing from more deaths to less deaths.)

Or? 

Catching on to getting Vitamin D etc levels raised? 

More vulnerable people in greater isolation? 

I’ve certainly been trying to get the Vitamin D etc information  out to my family and friends—especially darker skinned / higher melanin / probably lower D ones.   Have troubles convincing my ds though—younger people feel invulnerable.

 

Might White people in Detroit area be typically less healthy than African American people in Detroit area?   Or older? 

 

Quote

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11606-020-05983-z

Study not well written, data not well presented, I have concerns overall, but:

"Decreased risk of in-hospital mortality was associated with female sex (HR 0.84, CI 0.77–0.90), African American race (HR 0.78 CI 0.65–0.95), and hydroxychloroquine use (HR 0.53, CI 0.41–0.67)."

The Detroit study:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30534-8/fulltext

Detroit study better written, data clearer, stats seem sound. Found white patients had increased mortality, opposite of what was seen in the past.

Do white patients have increased absolute rates of mortality compared to white people earlier in pandemic ?

Or only increased mortality rates as a mathematical effect of non-whites having less mortality?

also, is this mortality at a certain number of days from something ? 

I have been wondering at the studies that use 28 day mortality since many high profile cases like Dr. Li were in hospital longer than 28 days when they died iirc. 

 

Quote

 

"From Cox regression modeling, predictors of mortality were age>65 years (HR:2.6 [95% CI:1.9-3.3]), white race (HR:1.7 [95% CI:1.4-2.1]), CKD (HR:1.7 [95%CI:1.4-2.1]), reduced O2 saturation level on admission (HR:1.5 [95%CI:1.1-2.1]), and ventilator use during admission (HR: 2.2 [95%CI:1.4-3.3]). Hydroxychloroquine provided a 66% hazard ratio reduction, and hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin 71% compared to neither treatment (p < 0.001)."

 

 

Interesting.  

Edited July 3, 2020 by Pen

[ElizabethB]

4 minutes ago, Pen said:

Or? 

Catching on to getting Vitamin D etc levels raised? 

More vulnerable people in greater isolation? 

I’ve certainly been trying to get the Vitamin D etc information  out to my family and friends—especially darker skinned / higher melanin / probably lower D ones.   Have troubles convincing my ds though—younger people feel invulnerable.

 

Might White people in Detroit area be typically less healthy than African American people in Detroit area?   Or older? 

 

Do white patients have increased absolute rates of mortality compared to white people earlier in pandemic ?

Or only increased mortality rates as a mathematical effect of non-whites having less mortality?

also, is this mortality at a certain number of days from something ? 

I have been wondering at the studies that use 28 day mortality since many high profile cases like Dr. Li were in hospital longer than 28 days when they died iirc. 

 

 

Interesting.  

Yes, interesting, I forgot, I had the theory about North/South differences, too.  NY and Detroit north, people in the South overall are less healthy, could be differences in how that plays out racially, too.

We've lived all over, people definitely exercise less and eat more unhealthy food in the South overall.

Lots of factors to consider.

[Pen]

22 minutes ago, JadeOrchidSong said:

I am looking for good, protective masks for my boys and my husband. My youngest son is going to a three week summer math class, 3 hours/day and is required to wear a mask. I have some KN95 masks, but I think a cloth mask is more durable and comfortable. I saw this Happy Mask mentioned in another thread, but couldn't find the thread now. So you mom has had this mask for a couple days now. What's her thought? I need to order one now, but would like to check what actual users say first. Thanks! 

 

Hers hasn’t arrived yet. I can let you know when she gets it.  I wish it already had since she had to go to a car repair today. 

Mine arrived and I have had it for a couple of days. I like it so far, but haven’t had it on 3 hours nonstop thus far. I can update you on my experience with it next week. 

[ktgrok]

3 hours ago, TracyP said:

I agree with a lot of what you are saying here. I definitely want to see more data. But I'm not sure these studies are completely meaningless just because they are small. Like the 9yo in France who didn't spread it to any of his 170 contacts. Is it definitive proof? No way. But it is another little piece of the puzzle that is pointing in the same direction.

By the same argument, the 2 hairdressers who didn't spread covid are completely meaningless. I would disagree - I think those cases are meaningful even if they are not definitive proof on their own.

Yeah, I discount both of those case studies or whatever you want to call them. Anecdotal, interesting as far as  saying hey, we should study this! But not any kind of real evidence of anything. 

[Pen]

 

34 minutes ago, JadeOrchidSong said:

I am looking for good, protective masks for my boys and my husband. My youngest son is going to a three week summer math class, 3 hours/day and is required to wear a mask. I have some KN95 masks, but I think a cloth mask is more durable and comfortable. I saw this Happy Mask mentioned in another thread, but couldn't find the thread now. So you mom has had this mask for a couple days now. What's her thought? I need to order one now, but would like to check what actual users say first. Thanks! 

I don’t know if this is significant but I can smell things like coffee through the Happy Mask much more easily than through a two layer 100% cotton (outer layer salted) mask.  

I hope the lab test results for Happymask are reliable.

the Happymask is much lighter, cooler, more easy to breathe through than the 2 layer 100% cotton. 

[Pen]

17 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Yeah, I discount both of those case studies or whatever you want to call them. Anecdotal, interesting as far as  saying hey, we should study this! But not any kind of real evidence of anything. 

 

I don’t discount them.  But I don’t conclude that masks are 100% protective or that children 100% can’t spread the illness. 

At the chalet, I think only the UK businessman was a “super-spreader” and I don’t think we know why.  None of the other people were iirc whether adult or child. I can’t recall  if any of the others at the chalet went on to spread it at all. 

and I lost track of the interview with a doctor who got CV19 apparently on a plane with universal masking... 

 

as long as the Alabama students / young adults are playing CV19 games, I’d like to know how easily / how quickly they are getting it. 

Edited July 3, 2020 by Pen

[DoraBora]

On 7/2/2020 at 6:10 PM, Dreamergal said:

He was trying to present himself as a caring grandfather who would be willing to die for the sake of his grandchildren's future. Then offered up other grandparents too without their choice or consent that they will be willing to die as well. 🙄

Here is a quote (TX Lt. Gov. Patrick, from March):  

“No one reached out to me and said, as a senior citizen, ‘Are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’ And if that’s the exchange, I’m all in … I just think there’s lots of grandparents out there in this country like me — I have six grandchildren — that what we all care about and what we love more than anything are those children. I want to live smart and see through this. But I don’t want the whole country to be sacrificed and that’s what I see.”

Edited July 3, 2020 by DoraBora

[DoraBora]

23 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I don’t know if this is significant but I can smell things like coffee through the Happy Mask much more easily than through a two layer 100% cotton (outer layer salted) mask.  

I hope the lab test results for Happymask are reliable.

the Happymask is much lighter, cooler, more easy to breathe through than the 2 layer 100% cotton. 

Do you think that's a result of the design -- the way it has extra space in the front?  I've seen a homemade design out there that has pleats over the nose so that the mask puffs out.  I'm trying to get motivated to make one.

[The Governess]

1 hour ago, Terabith said:

I'm wondering about why New York had such a big jump from the middle of March to the end of March, when other parts of the country with the same number of cases in mid March did not.  I was looking back at numbers.  On March 11, didn't New York have like 200 cases?  But it was up to like 25,000 two or three weeks later.  I'm wondering if the big difference was the announced "travel ban" with Europe in mid March?  I remember those pictures of airports, with thousands of people crammed together.  New York is a major hub.  Could it have been that that made the difference between the explosion of cases in NY versus say, Washington state?

I’m pretty sure the big jump was due to testing availability. There were definitely more cases in NY in mid-March than 200 per day, but they weren’t performing enough tests to capture a true number. 

[YaelAldrich]

 I wore my Totobobo mask throughout the 1.5 day emergency room visit and surgery (I hope - I was out!) due to a fall in which I broke my tibia and fibula and ankle (and dislocated my ankle) last week in NC while visiting my parents.  In a hospital it was so easy to wear. That reminds me to change out the filters (but there were no COVID-19 patients there - too small of a hospital).  It is cool because you can change out the filters thereby reusing the main mask.  The filters are 92%-100% depending on which filter sets you buy.

 

My family has been wearing these masks since early March.  I have gotten a bunch of people to wear them but most have reverted to cloth masks because they do get condensation inside them.  It doesn't bother me at all but my husband and kids just pinch the nose part or tip the mask off their chins and wipe them out with a clean tissue.  I really think they are terrific and will be wearing them until we know we can stop.

[SoCal_Bear]

Glad you are happy with the Happy Mask... I posted about it on the other thread because it was developed by a fellow Berkeley mom (friend of a friend) and grew in popularity in our Berkeley moms FB group. I don't usually pass along products, but in this case, I know everyone is searching for masks that can actually be worn for long periods of time for themselves and their children. Plus have filtering is a big plus. https://www.happymasks.co/ Adding the direct link because this is different than the Germany Happy Mask.

The other mask I would suggest for long period of wear for comfort and is reusable, but it does not have filtering properties is the Under Armor mask for athetes. You can read about it here. https://about.underarmour.com/news/2020/05/introducing-ua-sportsmask It did sell out within an hour on their website. It is on back order right now. https://www.underarmour.com/en-us/ua-sportsmask/pid1368010 This is a reasonable option is you are looking for a mask but not necessarily for filtration.

Edited July 3, 2020 by calbear

[Pen]

11 minutes ago, calbear said:

Glad you are happy with the Happy Mask... I posted about it on the other thread because it was developed by a fellow Berkeley mom (friend of a friend) and grew in popularity in our Berkeley moms FB group. I don't usually pass along products, but in this case, I know everyone is searching for masks that can actually be worn for long periods of time for themselves and their children. Plus have filtering is a big plus. https://www.happymasks.co/ Adding the direct link because this is different than the Germany Happy Mask.

 

Can you confirm that it’s supposed to be filtering for wearer, not just to help protect others?

 

[Pen]

29 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

Do you think that's a result of the design -- the way it has extra space in the front?  I've seen a homemade design out there that has pleats over the nose so that the mask puffs out.  I'm trying to get motivated to make one.

Partly the design.

but it is literally very lightweight 

[TCB]

2 hours ago, Terabith said:

I'm wondering about why New York had such a big jump from the middle of March to the end of March, when other parts of the country with the same number of cases in mid March did not.  I was looking back at numbers.  On March 11, didn't New York have like 200 cases?  But it was up to like 25,000 two or three weeks later.  I'm wondering if the big difference was the announced "travel ban" with Europe in mid March?  I remember those pictures of airports, with thousands of people crammed together.  New York is a major hub.  Could it have been that that made the difference between the explosion of cases in NY versus say, Washington state?

I'm wondering if we all seemed to have similar numbers of cases at the beginning because we were all testing roughly the same amount of people per day, but of course not catching the real number and NY had so many more uncaught.

[TCB]

I just received the Happy Masks I bought for the grandparents. I don't know how they are to wear because just arrived and haven't heard reports from the wearers. I have to say though, that they are way thinner and lighter than I was expecting. If they are that thin and light and do indeed filter really well then they are wonderful. I must admit it did give me pause though. I'm not sure if there is any way to find out for sure about the filtration. It's actually kind of hard to believe they are made up of 3 layers. If they weren't $18 each I'd take one apart to make sure.

[SoCal_Bear]

18 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Can you confirm that it’s supposed to be filtering for wearer, not just to help protect others?

 

To the wearer. The testing was done by labs and in Taiwan which has been way in front of this from the beginning. The specs are here and in the technology link. Scroll down the home page and you can see a photo of one that is cut open. https://www.happymasks.co/

 

Edited July 3, 2020 by calbear

[TCB]

13 minutes ago, calbear said:

To the wearer. The testing was done by labs and in Taiwan which has been way in front of this from the beginning. The specs are here and in the technology link. Scroll down the home page and you can see a photo of one that is cut open. https://www.happymasks.co/

 

Thanks! I looked at it and saw the cut open one. I'm sure it is true but looking at the mask it is so incredible that they have produced something so good and yet so thin and light!

[SoCal_Bear]

21 minutes ago, TCB said:

Thanks! I looked at it and saw the cut open one. I'm sure it is true but looking at the mask it is so incredible that they have produced something so good and yet so thin and light!

I believe it is because in Asia, working on tech to improve masks for general population use is important and valued, and there's a market for this. The general population in Asian countries are receptive mask wearers ever since SARS. It's a normal part of life there. What is available overseas is radically different than what we have here. https://worldcrunch.com/coronavirus/taiwan39s-amazing-mask-system-apps-ids-and-convenience-stores

I will say that not all Asian countries were ahead of the curve like Taiwan, but they pivoted quickly and got on top of things very quickly primarily controlled through community wide mask wearing and tracing.

Edited July 3, 2020 by calbear

[SoCal_Bear]

25 minutes ago, TCB said:

Thanks! I looked at it and saw the cut open one. I'm sure it is true but looking at the mask it is so incredible that they have produced something so good and yet so thin and light!

I keep thinking about how nano technology is transforming so many industries in ways we never thought possible.

[matrips]

2 hours ago, calbear said:

To the wearer. The testing was done by labs and in Taiwan which has been way in front of this from the beginning. The specs are here and in the technology link. Scroll down the home page and you can see a photo of one that is cut open. https://www.happymasks.co/

 

Wait!  That’s a different Happy Mask site than the one I looked at earlier.  Now I’m confused 🤷‍♀️ 

That link is the proper one?  Or are some ordering the other happy masks?  This is the other link I saw earlier today https://happy-mask.com.  I didn’t those because no nose wire.  Your happy mask site looks really nice!

[SoCal_Bear]

2 minutes ago, matrips said:

Wait!  That’s a different Happy Mask site than the one I looked at earlier.  Now I’m confused 🤷‍♀️ 

That link is the proper one?  Or are some ordering the other happy masks?  This is the other link I saw earlier today https://happy-mask.com.  I didn’t those because no nose wire.  Your happy mask site looks really nice!

Yes, this is the one I have been posting about. The German one is not the same. This is the one manufactured in Taiwan. Google will pull up the link that you listed...but this is the one that has the specs I described.

 

[Matryoshka]

5 minutes ago, matrips said:

Wait!  That’s a different Happy Mask site than the one I looked at earlier.  Now I’m confused 🤷‍♀️ 

That link is the proper one?  Or are some ordering the other happy masks?  This is the other link I saw earlier today https://happy-mask.com.  I didn’t those because no nose wire.  Your happy mask site looks really nice!

I think everyone is ordering the Taiwanese Happy Masks.  Usually I like German engineering, but those other masks look awful.  Not only no nose wire, but even on the models they gap at the bottom.  

[Pen]

The Happy Mask I meant is same one as @calbear posted.  I started with one to try and then ordered additional for other family members.

[Corraleno]

6 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I don’t know if this is significant but I can smell things like coffee through the Happy Mask much more easily than through a two layer 100% cotton (outer layer salted) mask.  

I hope the lab test results for Happymask are reliable.

the Happymask is much lighter, cooler, more easy to breathe through than the 2 layer 100% cotton. 

Does the lining stay away from your face even if you breathe deeply? The biggest problem I've had with cloth masks is that when I breathe in, the lining gets sucked against my face, which makes me nuts. I have bought 5 different types of cloth masks, from 5 different vendors, ranging from plain cotton pleated ones to stretchy ones with a pocket for filters and even a highly structured one supposedly designed for sports, and  none of them are as comfortable or easy to breathe in as a plain old paper surgical mask. I've gotten to the point that I'm thinking I may as well just order a box of surgical masks, but if the Happy Mask really is that easy to breathe in and does NOT stick to your face when you take a deep breath, then I may give that one a try.

[Pen]

16 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Does the lining stay away from your face even if you breathe deeply? The biggest problem I've had with cloth masks is that when I breathe in, the lining gets sucked against my face, which makes me nuts. I have bought 5 different types of cloth masks, from 5 different vendors, ranging from plain cotton pleated ones to stretchy ones with a pocket for filters and even a highly structured one supposedly designed for sports, and  none of them are as comfortable or easy to breathe in as a plain old paper surgical mask. I've gotten to the point that I'm thinking I may as well just order a box of surgical masks, but if the Happy Mask really is that easy to breathe in and does NOT stick to your face when you take a deep breath, then I may give that one a try.

 

I would say yes.  I shaped it, nose bridge etc, and ear loop adjustment with it off, and  am using a gallon zip lock to store it in its rounded out position— rather than folding it down flat or crushing it.  Shaped and kept rounded, it isn’t as stiff as a 3M respirator, but holds its shape more than most fabric masks.  

 

(It arrived flat.) 

 

Edited July 4, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

108 cases in vic.  9 public housing towers are being placed in full lockdown for 5 days with nobody allowed to leave.  This is quite scary I can’t imagine trying to police it and really hope everyone inside will be ok.  

[Melissa in Australia]

20 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

108 cases in vic.  9 public housing towers are being placed in full lockdown for 5 days with nobody allowed to leave.  This is quite scary I can’t imagine trying to police it and really hope everyone inside will be ok.  

In those public housing towers there are 23 that were positive today. They share lifts. 

I just listened to the speech by the premier. There are other people in the tower that they are absolutely certain that have it who were tested today.if people in those towers refuse to be tested then the whole towers will have to stay locked down for longer. 

 

Edited July 4, 2020 by Melissa in Australia

[Melissa in Australia]

Also the people living in the towers will be paid an allowance because they cannot go to work and I believe food will be brought in. They are public housing towers, very low income people. As the premier said. The most vunerable

[Melissa in Australia]

Also the people living in the towers will be paid an allowance because they cannot go to work and I believe food will be brought in. They are public housing towers, very low income people. As the premier said. The most vunerable

[Jean in Newcastle]

From National Geographic:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/07/coronavirus-deadlier-than-many-believed-infection-fatality-rate-cvd/

"What’s more, scientists today have a better sense of how to measure COVID-19's lethality, and the numbers are alarming. Using a more sophisticated calculation called the infection-fatality rate, paired with the past few months’ worth of data, the latest best estimates show that COVID-19 is around 50 to 100 times more lethal than the seasonal flu, on average."

Had you heard this? 

[Melissa in Australia]

3 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

From National Geographic:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/07/coronavirus-deadlier-than-many-believed-infection-fatality-rate-cvd/

"What’s more, scientists today have a better sense of how to measure COVID-19's lethality, and the numbers are alarming. Using a more sophisticated calculation called the infection-fatality rate, paired with the past few months’ worth of data, the latest best estimates show that COVID-19 is around 50 to 100 times more lethal than the seasonal flu, on average."

Had you heard this? 

The chief medical officer for Australia yesterday said it is now recignised to be between 50 to 100 times more deadly than the flue.  He didn't say his source for info on the very short interview I heard. 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

From National Geographic:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/07/coronavirus-deadlier-than-many-believed-infection-fatality-rate-cvd/

"What’s more, scientists today have a better sense of how to measure COVID-19's lethality, and the numbers are alarming. Using a more sophisticated calculation called the infection-fatality rate, paired with the past few months’ worth of data, the latest best estimates show that COVID-19 is around 50 to 100 times more lethal than the seasonal flu, on average."

Had you heard this? 

Nope I had thought at most 10-20.  Scary

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Also the people living in the towers will be paid an allowance because they cannot go to work and I believe food will be brought in. They are public housing towers, very low income people. As the premier said. The most vunerable

That’s good.  I got half way through the update and had to go.  I’m glad about finance and food.  I’m seeing that people are talking about activity packs or something for the kids.  

[TracyP]

5 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

From National Geographic:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/07/coronavirus-deadlier-than-many-believed-infection-fatality-rate-cvd/

"What’s more, scientists today have a better sense of how to measure COVID-19's lethality, and the numbers are alarming. Using a more sophisticated calculation called the infection-fatality rate, paired with the past few months’ worth of data, the latest best estimates show that COVID-19 is around 50 to 100 times more lethal than the seasonal flu, on average."

Had you heard this? 

They came up with an IFR of 1.45 in NYC - a number that is right where those of us who have been calculating these numbers have estimated. They then went on to estimate that the IFR of the flu is more like .01 (or even lower) a number I also believe to be true. Usually the fatality rate of the flu is cited as 0.1%, but that is more likely the CFR. The flu has a large amount of asymptomatic cases, just like covid. Yep, sounds right on to me.

[TracyP]

Ya know, how is it that we find that covid is far less deadly than originally thought. And we determine the flu is far less deadly than we are normally told. The takeaway we get is this article... sigh.

[Kanin]

11 hours ago, Corraleno said:

none of them are as comfortable or easy to breathe in as a plain old paper surgical mask.

I was wearing a plain old surgical mask on a walk yesterday, and it was so comfortable that I could barely feel it on there. I was thinking that a surgical mask would be really easy for kids to handle all day at school. They don't filter much, but they do catch droplets. Do you think that could be a good choice for schoolkids?

[Joker]

12 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I would say yes.  I shaped it, nose bridge etc, and ear loop adjustment with it off, and  am using a gallon zip lock to store it in its rounded out position— rather than folding it down flat or crushing it.  Shaped and kept rounded, it isn’t as stiff as a 3M respirator, but holds its shape more than most fabric masks.  

 

(It arrived flat.) 

 

Do you wear glasses? I also purchased happy masks for all four of us but we all wear glasses and these masks have been the worst for us. The shape of the mask means our glasses keep sliding way down. It’s frustrating because I think I really like every thing else about it. I’m going to keep working at it but I don’t think they will work for us.

[Corraleno]

 

34 minutes ago, Joker said:

Do you wear glasses? I also purchased happy masks for all four of us but we all wear glasses and these masks have been the worst for us. The shape of the mask means our glasses keep sliding way down. It’s frustrating because I think I really like every thing else about it. I’m going to keep working at it but I don’t think they will work for us.

I just ordered a couple of Happy Masks, and I do wear glasses. 😕

[TCB]

2 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

 

I just ordered a couple of Happy Masks, and I do wear glasses. 😕

My FIL tried his on with his glasses and it seemed ok, but I don't think he's worn it for an extended period of time so don't know for sure.

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Joker said:

Do you wear glasses? I also purchased happy masks for all four of us but we all wear glasses and these masks have been the worst for us. The shape of the mask means our glasses keep sliding way down. It’s frustrating because I think I really like every thing else about it. I’m going to keep working at it but I don’t think they will work for us.

Yes. Though not all the time.  My favorite glasses, alas missing in action, don’t touch it at all. My other glasses - shown below - barely do (purple circle). The glasses are seated on my nose by the nose pieces (red circles), not on the mask. 

(If I fuss with the shaping I may be able to get both sides not to have glasses - mask overlap at all) 

 

Don’t quote photo - I’ll delete later. 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2020 by Pen
Deleted photo since u saw it

[Kanin]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

Do you wear glasses? I also purchased happy masks for all four of us but we all wear glasses and these masks have been the worst for us. The shape of the mask means our glasses keep sliding way down. It’s frustrating because I think I really like every thing else about it. I’m going to keep working at it but I don’t think they will work for us.

About a year ago, my DH started wearing these little silicone glasses ear grips... he got sick of pushing his glasses up all the time. I wear them now, too, so I don't have to worry about masks making my glasses fall off. They also keep me from touching my glasses/face so much. We got ours on Amazon, not these exact ones but similar: https://www.amazon.com/GMS-Optical-Comfortable-Silicone-Anti-slip/dp/B00DUWLI0Q

[Pen]

Transmission R0 rates in USA by state.  

@square_25 NY is back above 1.0 btw .  Though not by a lot.  

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1119412/covid-19-transmission-rate-us-by-state/

 

[TCB]

3 minutes ago, Pen said:

Transmission R0 rates in USA by state.  

@square_25 NY is back above 1.0 btw .  Though not by a lot.  

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1119412/covid-19-transmission-rate-us-by-state/

 

Those figures seem a little strange though. My state, which has got increasing numbers but not going crazy at all has a higher R0 than Arizona. How can that be?