wuhan - coronavirus

[Katy]

12 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I don't think they've found younger deaths anywhere without the tuberculosis vaccine, have they? 

 

I know China has the vaccine and had at least one death in the 12-18 range, but I don't think I ever saw anything regarding whether that child had a pre-existing condition or not.

5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/
 

death by age group for Italy shows 0pc for under 29 not sure if that means 0 deaths or such a low number that it doesn’t show.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-group-italy/

60-69 is showing at 7pc though. 😞 

 

Italy definitely had at least two deaths in 20-19 year olds, one of them was a soccer coach who was told he had leukemia and the virus at the same time.  At least I think that guy was Italian.  I might be mixing it up with Spain?

3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Another news story from Uk of a 13 year old with no preexisting conditions

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-uk-boy-13-dies-from-covid19-despite-no-underlying-health-conditions/a293cae6-ac04-4ffb-9de9-7f68b3f1a113

 

Scary.

[Katy]

Just now, square_25 said:

But again, relevant numbers should be in the hundreds, if it's really scary. Anecdotes aren't ever going to help. 

 

If they help people keep their kids HOME instead of taking them on play dates, it does help.

[Ausmumof3]

Bruce Aylward, who led the World Health Organisation's recent mission to assess the pandemic in China, said his team found there had been many deaths in people without other health conditions, and in people decades younger than the groups deemed most are risk

"In some areas there were less than 50, less than 20 per cent who [local healthcare workers] could identify had comorbid conditions," Dr Aylward said.

"Indeed, people who did have comorbid conditions had a much higher ratio of dying from the disease, but in most people there were no other predictors, apart from age, that they could die.

"I would also emphasise that there were a lot of people in their 30s, 40s, 50s, who were dying as well," said Dr Aylward, speaking in a webinar for Australian health protection officers earlier this month.

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-03-18/coronavirus-covid-younger-people-also-risk-serious-illness-death/12059326

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, square_25 said:

I'm not in favor of terrifying people with misleading information. 

I don’t think it’s misleading to say some kids may die or write a story about families where that happens.  We have write ups in the news from time to time of kids who die from rare parasites or diseases even when they are one in a million.  I do think the articles should remind and emphasise the low risk.  If i read that kids can’t die from the virus and kept sending them to school because the pm said we should and my kid was the one in a million (Figuratively speaking we don’t know exactly) who did die I’d be angry and feel misled.  

I also note that in China in spite of saying it wasn’t effecting children there were a couple of stories at least in the news about babies who had recovered after being on ventilators so I’ve been somewhat wary about that.

[Ausmumof3]

9 minutes ago, TracyP said:

That is the one being discussed.

Oops sorry

 

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Argh, but arguing the "but SOMEONE has to be the one in a million" point is unreasonable! Your kid's chance of dying from getting on the school bus is more than one in a million. Do you feel misled that people don't harp on that? We all take risks. It is not reasonable to worry about risks that are smaller than the usual risks of day to day life. 

Publishing human interest stories that make people overestimate the likelihood of things happening is irresponsible. 

I’m on team publish the stories but emphasise the low stats in the stories.  They do publish stories here about kids being overheated in cars or hit by cars in the driveway or drowned.  Those are all risks but very low risk.  I think mostly when kids are dying unexpectedly it’s a story that gets published.  Most news stories are about outliers.  Most people’s houses don’t burn down but we still publish when someone’s does.  Most car accidents don’t result in fatality but we still publish the story here at least when they do.  Your chance of being killed in a car accident here is roughly 1/20,000 if I did the math right but we still publish every incident.  We publish their families stories etc.  statistics are important especially for people making public health decisions but media has never really been about statistics.  

Edited April 1, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[gardenmom5]

of the eight whistleblowers - who were arrested and forced to recant, Dr. Li died of covid19.  Now Dr Ai Fen  has disappeared.  She recently made a  file available of the virus.  She wanted the information to get out.   Reports of her speaking out again, and positing information (which was quickly deleted but there are screen shots) were posted on the 11th.  now she's missing.

 

Just two weeks ago the head of Emergency at Wuhan Central hospital went public, saying authorities had stopped her and her colleagues from warning the world. She has now disappeared, her whereabouts unknown. #60Mins pic.twitter.com/3Jt2qbLKUb
— 60 Minutes Australia (@60Mins) March 29, 2020

Edited April 1, 2020 by gardenmom5

[Pen]

17 minutes ago, square_25 said:

But again, relevant numbers should be in the hundreds, if it's really scary. Anecdotes aren't ever going to help. 

 

I think it’s important that people not continue to think that under 20 is pretty much immune. 

[Ausmumof3]

Nothing coronavirus related but just saw there was a 6.5 magnitude earthquake in Idaho - hope everyone’s ok

[livetoread]

Here’s something I don’t understand. I grasp the idea of flattening the curve and the importance of social distancing to slow the spread. But I don’t understand, looking at the flattening the curve charts like the one shown in tonight’s press conference that shows millions of deaths without mitigation, and hundreds of thousands with. If this is that contagious, aren’t people still going to get it when social distancing is lessened? Unless we lockdown until we have effective treatment or a vaccine, I don’t understand why the numbers are so much less for our scenario. 
 

I also do understand that more people would die if hospitals were overwhelmed, but that many more? Does this 200,000 deaths literally mean indefinite lockdown until vaccine or treatment? Because otherwise it seems to me we are looking at several million all at once with no mitigation, or somewhat less than that over a longer period of time because we are not being as restrictive and are still catching it from each other. How are we not catching it from each other to get to the 200k without lockdown?

I see Fauci and Trump talk about how the next few weeks will be bad, which is true. And then it’s quite possible the growth rates will slow and the curve will bend, and that’s because we are staying away from each other. But then what? If we loosen, won’t they just start to climb again? If not, why not? I feel like no one is saying that either we stay on lockdown for a very long time, or we gradually loosen restrictions and come a lot closer to the millions, but just spread out over a longer period.

[Katy]

9 minutes ago, livetoread said:

Here’s something I don’t understand. I grasp the idea of flattening the curve and the importance of social distancing to slow the spread. But I don’t understand, looking at the flattening the curve charts like the one shown in tonight’s press conference that shows millions of deaths without mitigation, and hundreds of thousands with. If this is that contagious, aren’t people still going to get it when social distancing is lessened? Unless we lockdown until we have effective treatment or a vaccine, I don’t understand why the numbers are so much less for our scenario. 
 

I also do understand that more people would die if hospitals were overwhelmed, but that many more? Does this 200,000 deaths literally mean indefinite lockdown until vaccine or treatment? Because otherwise it seems to me we are looking at several million all at once with no mitigation, or somewhat less than that over a longer period of time because we are not being as restrictive and are still catching it from each other. How are we not catching it from each other to get to the 200k without lockdown?

I see Fauci and Trump talk about how the next few weeks will be bad, which is true. And then it’s quite possible the growth rates will slow and the curve will bend, and that’s because we are staying away from each other. But then what? If we loosen, won’t they just start to climb again? If not, why not? I feel like no one is saying that either we stay on lockdown for a very long time, or we gradually loosen restrictions and come a lot closer to the millions, but just spread out over a longer period.

 

The whispered truth is you may very well be right, and this is going to last 18-24 months, until there is a vaccine, unless they find an effective treatment that already exists like that TB vaccine they're doing a trial on in Australia.  But that probability of 18-24 months will freak people out so they don't discuss it yet, and everyone is hoping that despite the transmission in hot countries that this will act more like flu and go away for the summer.

[Ausmumof3]

33 minutes ago, livetoread said:

Here’s something I don’t understand. I grasp the idea of flattening the curve and the importance of social distancing to slow the spread. But I don’t understand, looking at the flattening the curve charts like the one shown in tonight’s press conference that shows millions of deaths without mitigation, and hundreds of thousands with. If this is that contagious, aren’t people still going to get it when social distancing is lessened? Unless we lockdown until we have effective treatment or a vaccine, I don’t understand why the numbers are so much less for our scenario. 
 

I also do understand that more people would die if hospitals were overwhelmed, but that many more? Does this 200,000 deaths literally mean indefinite lockdown until vaccine or treatment? Because otherwise it seems to me we are looking at several million all at once with no mitigation, or somewhat less than that over a longer period of time because we are not being as restrictive and are still catching it from each other. How are we not catching it from each other to get to the 200k without lockdown?

I see Fauci and Trump talk about how the next few weeks will be bad, which is true. And then it’s quite possible the growth rates will slow and the curve will bend, and that’s because we are staying away from each other. But then what? If we loosen, won’t they just start to climb again? If not, why not? I feel like no one is saying that either we stay on lockdown for a very long time, or we gradually loosen restrictions and come a lot closer to the millions, but just spread out over a longer period.

Basically yes.  Look at what China’s “loosened” restricrions look like.  Unless we eliminate it we’re in it for the long haul. There is some suggestion that it will be more of a rolling or moving restrictions scenario - very gradually loosening, observing trends and then tightening specific areas as needed.  For countries that manage to eliminate it if that’s possible (maybe NZ) it might mean long term border closures till we have a vaccine.

Edited to add what it does do is enable us to build up medical supplies and facilities to a point where we may be able to cope.  More ventilators, more masks, more beds.  Hopefully less doctors and nurses dying because of lack of facilities.

Edited April 1, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Laurie]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

I gotta say, this crisis has made me VERY aware of local government, in a way I haven't been before. 

 

At the beginning when the first patient in our area made the news, we were told that our risk was very low.  And the local officials seemed to be more concerned with stigma rather than spread of the disease.  Now, we're basically prisoners in our homes.  

And originally we were told that healthy people didn't need to wear masks, but now the same health officials are re-thinking that.  Yes, a mask might be a good idea, but not the kind that medical workers wear,  just something homemade.  ( I don't sew but I have a partial box of N95's.  It looks like I have to decide if I want to wear one to the grocery store to try to avoid the virus or wear something much less effective like a bandana so that I appear to be a good citizen to my fellow shoppers.)  

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/should-you-wear-a-mask-heres-what-a-uw-epidemiologist-says

Edited April 1, 2020 by Laurie

[Arcadia]

2 minutes ago, Laurie said:

 

And originally we were told that healthy people didn't need to wear masks, but now the same health officials are re-thinking that.  

No mask available to buy though. I’ll probably keep the mask that I am issued when I have my oncologist appointment this Friday.

@mathnerd

“12:10 p.m. California considering mask advisory: Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a virtual news conference Tuesday that the state might end up telling residents to wear masks to prevent the spread of coronavirus, but there are risks in such a mandate because people could end up adjusting the masks and touching their face more often, which health experts have advised against.” https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/amp/Coronavirus-live-updates-news-bay-area-15169654.php

[SKL]

5 hours ago, square_25 said:

Aren't they comparing to baseline? 

So if you normally travel 100 miles per day to work and you are still traveling 100 miles to work during "shelter in place" because you work in a factory that makes medical equipment in town x, you are at 100% of baseline.

If you live in a big city, you probably travel more when on a fun outing than when you're keeping it simple.  But if you live rural, it's not like that.  You have to drive unless you are furloughed, and even then, one grocery trip might be more driving than city folks do in a month.

[Katy]

If you need a mask and you have a washable scarf, handkerchief, or bandana and two hair ties this is by far the easiest thing I've seen.  DH wore a buff last weekend and hated it, it kept slipping down.

 

[SKL]

4 hours ago, Arctic Mama said:

Follow this thread for some work in this area, and also the current issues in reporting/lags.

https://twitter.com/sidsanghi/status/1244268790440955904?s=21

I can’t remember where I saw more data broken out for this, though.  Too much information flowing too quickly across my feeds 😵

This is what I expected.  Hopefully overall it helps balance out the COVID19 tragedies.

[The Governess]

My hope is that a month or two from now, we will be past the peak and at a point where the number of daily new cases is relatively small. Then if restrictions are eased, we will be back to where we were in January, except with a) warmer weather, b) better testing ability, c) better knowledge of potential treatments, d) more inventory of needed supplies, and e) at least a small percentage (maybe a significant percentage?) of the population that is immune. All of those things will mean that the next wave will be smaller and we will see it coming much sooner.

[RootAnn]

2 hours ago, Arcadia said:

She urged research into deaths outside the groups expected to succumb to infection as it "may indicate an underlying genetic susceptibility."

On the kid front, this is the part I thought was important. Do the younger people (translated as under 50, let's say) who die have something in common? If there is a commonality, I want them looking. I know there was talk at the beginning of this about something to do with the cytokine storm (I think) where there was a genetic mutation more common in some Asians that doctors thought might make this virus more deadly for those individuals. I haven't heard that since this spread worldwide, though. I'd love to know someone is looking for things that could help us determine who is more susceptible, why some people seem to be asymptomatic, what mutations of the virus might make it less deadly or less contagious, etc.

50 minutes ago, livetoread said:

Here’s something I don’t understand. I grasp the idea of flattening the curve and the importance of social distancing to slow the spread. But I don’t understand, looking at the flattening the curve charts like the one shown in tonight’s press conference that shows millions of deaths without mitigation, and hundreds of thousands with. If this is that contagious, aren’t people still going to get it when social distancing is lessened? Unless we lockdown until we have effective treatment or a vaccine, I don’t understand why the numbers are so much less for our scenario. 

I think your understanding is correct. Search for "the Hammer and the Dance" which talks about tightening & loosening the restrictions in cycles over time.

[Arcadia]

3 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

. I know there was talk at the beginning of this about something to do with the cytokine storm (I think) where there was a genetic mutation more common in some Asians that doctors thought might make this virus more deadly for those individuals. I haven't heard that since this spread worldwide, though. 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/biomedical/devices/blood-filtration-tech-removes-harmful-cytokines-covid19-patients.amp.html
“According to Chan, CytoSorb is approved in the European Union as a cytokine filter. He says it’s been used to date in some 80,000 treatments across 58 countries “to treat life-threatening complications such as sepsis, lung failure, and potentially fatal low blood pressure, often called shock.” (He points out many patients with severe COVID-19 have been dying from some of the same causes.)

He says CytoSorb has also been used in more than 70 critically-ill COVID-19 patients in Italy, China, Germany, and France. Clinical data is not yet available on these cases, though Chan describes what has been reported back to him is “preliminary positive results in terms of controlling cytokine storm, improving lung function that has helped patients get off of mechanical ventilation, and reversing shock.”

Not yet approved for use in the United States, CytoSorb had already been in line for consideration with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for cardiac surgeries prior to the coronavirus outbreak.

But COVID-19 has now dialed up global attention on cytokine storms—and any effective therapies that could treat the sometimes deadly coronavirus-induced condition.

“This is a fascinating idea,” said Jessica Manson, consultant rheumatologist and honorary senior lecturer at University College London Hospital. She is one of six co-authors of a 13 March letter to the journal The Lancet arguing that doctors need to be aware of so-called cytokine storm syndrome when treating critical COVID-19 patients.

Manson is careful to point out that fighting cytokine storms may only be relevant for a subgroup of critical COVID-19 patients. Her team’s letter to The Lancet argues that any patient with a severe case of COVID-19 should be lab tested for “hyperinflammation.” This test would be completely separate from a coronavirus test. 

If a severe COVID-19 patient has markers for hyper-inflamed lungs, other organs, or similar conditions, her letter argues, cytokine storm therapies may need to be considered. She says one approved therapy is the drug tocilizumab, a.k.a. Actemra (which targets the cytokine IL-6). In fact, as of Monday, the FDA has launched Phase III trials of tocilizumab for treating COVID-19 pneumonia.”

[SKL]

13 minutes ago, square_25 said:

It's not reliable and has been retracted. I really wouldn't count those chickens yet. In Italy, the excess deaths in the one place they counted were very high. 

The trajectory and other factors here are a lot different from Italy though.

It's just logical that when people avoid disease transmission of all kinds, there are going to be fewer deaths from all deadly diseases; and when they travel less, fewer accidents.  We'll see once the numbers play out.

[mommyoffive]

19 minutes ago, lovelearnandlive said:

My hope is that a month or two from now, we will be past the peak and at a point where the number of daily new cases is relatively small. Then if restrictions are eased, we will be back to where we were in January, except with a) warmer weather, b) better testing ability, c) better knowledge of potential treatments, d) more inventory of needed supplies, and e) at least a small percentage (maybe a significant percentage?) of the population that is immune. All of those things will mean that the next wave will be smaller and we will see it coming much sooner.

 

I hope this is what happens.  

The timetable for a coronavirus vaccine is 18 months. Experts say that's risky

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html

[Pen]

58 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

But what if it's about as risky as the flu? Which I think is true. 

I think making people aware that people in their 50s (not just people about to die in a nursing home, anyway) are at risk is a much worthwhile strategy, because it's true. It's much better to work on people's sense of social responsibility than to try to scare them straight using anecdotes, from my perspective. 

 

I don’t feel like I know the truth on this yet.

And the history on this virus of saying only animals, or only if in contact with animals.  Oops that was wrong, human to human spread happens.

But spread only froM symptomatic people at close range and not very contagious.  Oops that was wrong, asymptomatic spread possible , very contagious, longer distances possible.

etc

I hope it won’t happen but lots more kid cases would not surprise me. 

I am also concerned that the teens seem to have cases that the powers that be consider unusually contagious.  (What ‘s up with that, I wonder? An Unadmitted to more virulent mutation? Some kid immune system response?)

 I remember early on telling my kid that since he’s young he probably is not personally likely to be extremely sick from CV19.   But that he has to do his part for the community, medical system etc. 

But I no longer believe it to be true that he is personally unlikely to be extremely sick with CV19 due to protected status as a kid.  

And I think some of the believed to be CV19 being community spread locally including with very sick kids may be real, not some other virus with similar symptoms (though there *is also* probably another virus with similar symptoms at same time). 

[Jean in Newcastle]

I think that it important to hear the details of illness/death in a new disease even or perhaps especially when it doesn’t fit the norm. Information is power. 

[SKL]

I'm not against them reporting on a child dying, but knowing how sensational journalists are, the next breathless segment will be about how we should all be scared shitless for our kids.  Increasing the general stress level like that is not gonna be helpful.  But maybe there are responsible journalists on the job who will provide balanced info.

The fact is that children can, rarely, die of most things.  Every so often you hear of a normal-seeming child die unexpectedly of a heart attack, for example.  This does not change the fact that heart disease is not considered a regular childhood illness.

[Jean in Newcastle]

We are adults who can take responsibility for how we process information. 

[The Governess]

On 3/28/2020 at 6:06 PM, lovelearnandlive said:

I’ve been keeping track of how fast deaths are doubling, both worldwide and in the US.  Here is a snapshot (these numbers are approximate and from worldometers; they also aren’t exact doubles - I picked the end-of-day numbers that were closest to the actual double. 

Worldwide deaths:

Feb 18 2000

March 9 4000 (20 days to double)

March 17 8000 (8 days to double)

March 23 16500 (6 days to double) - actual double 16000

March 28 31000 (5 days to double) - actual double 32000

 

US Deaths

March 14 57

March 17 110 (3 days to double) actual double 114

March 20 250 ( 3 days to double) actual double 228

March 23 550 (3 days to double) actual double 456

March 25 1030 (2 days to double) actual double 912

March 28 2200 (3 days to double) actual double 1824

I really hope these rates change... if they don’t, we will be looking at 250,000 total worldwide deaths and 70,000 US deaths 15 days from now. 

 

 

 

Quoting myself to add: 

US deaths:

March 31 3900 3 days to double (actual double 3648)

Worldwide deaths haven’t doubled again yet (currently at 42000).

[Ausmumof3]

31 minutes ago, SKL said:

The trajectory and other factors here are a lot different from Italy though.

It's just logical that when people avoid disease transmission of all kinds, there are going to be fewer deaths from all deadly diseases; and when they travel less, fewer accidents.  We'll see once the numbers play out.

I hope you’re right.  The flip side to that is people here are avoiding going to a hospital or doctor and things like breast cancer screening are being cancelled.  Dentist preventative work is being cancelled.  There may be an increase in deaths due to people being too scared to seek preventative care.  

[mommyoffive]

The death toll in the U.S. grew by more than 800 on Tuesday, surpassing 3,700

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/31/coronavirus-latest-news/

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, WendyAndMilo said:

It was fun 🙂

Ok?  I think.  We thought it was fun when we had a 3. Something and I sent the kids under the table.  A six sounds a bit more dramatic!

[Ausmumof3]

Standoff in Perth

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-cruise-ship-artania-refusing-to-leave-fremantle-port/12110206?pfmredir=sm

border force has requested a cruise ship to leave and they have refused.  Most passengers have been flown home to Germany or transferred to a private hospital in Western Australia.  There are 450 crew on board and 12 passengers that have been deemed to frail to fly home.  
 

[mathnerd]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

I'm not in favor of terrifying people with misleading information. 

What I understand is that young people being affected by this virus is a new trend that they are seeing and they want us to be aware of it. When it was spreading in China, there were no child casualties. In california, there were several local cases through community spread when my son had to attend an event with several hundred kids in the first week of March (mandatory for his sport activity) and I consoled myself with the fact that kids would be spared even if he got it, because that is what we knew then, from China. We have zero information from Iran which is another country devastated by this tragedy. So, we can assume that young people escaped death from this virus there as well.

This virus has mutated since it reached other continents and perhaps it acts differently than it did in bats and the people in Chinese provinces. It is possibly a new trend with the virus. I see parents bringing toddlers to Safeway (grocery chain) and letting them pick freshly baked donuts from glass cases in the middle of a pandemic and I am floored at how life has not changed even a tiny bit for many young people with young kids 😞 Let there be information put out that kids and people under 30 years old are not impervious to COVID-19.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-police-officer-gives-masks-to-doctor-caught-speeding-in-minnesota-usa/49e5bf4e-945d-427a-8c9f-6bd2ce82574c
 

feel good story if anyone else needs one  (I did)

Edited April 1, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[ElizabethB]

1 hour ago, Laurie said:

At the beginning when the first patient in our area made the news, we were told that our risk was very low.  And the local officials seemed to be more concerned with stigma rather than spread of the disease.  Now, we're basically prisoners in our homes.  

And originally we were told that healthy people didn't need to wear masks, but now the same health officials are re-thinking that.  Yes, a mask might be a good idea, but not the kind that medical workers wear,  just something homemade.  ( I don't sew but I have a partial box of N95's.  It looks like I have to decide if I want to wear one to the grocery store to try to avoid the virus or wear something much less effective like a bandana so that I appear to be a good citizen to my fellow shoppers.)  

https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/should-you-wear-a-mask-heres-what-a-uw-epidemiologist-says

You could wear a thin bandana or thin cloth mask over your mask.

Edited April 1, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Arcadia]

18 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Standoff in Perth

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-cruise-ship-artania-refusing-to-leave-fremantle-port/12110206?pfmredir=sm

border force has requested a cruise ship to leave and they have refused.  
 

Read the article you linked.  That is going to make Florida authorities and the public more wary of Holland America 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241647566.html

“Rep. Chip LaMarca, who represents parts of Broward County, said he agrees the ship needs a plan to treat sick passengers, but that Port Everglades should not be the only solution offered.

“I agree with Gov. Ron DeSantis that medical care should be sent out to the ship,” he wrote in a statement. “I’m all in to help get this done with whatever assets are needed to make this happen.” 

He suggested the ship dock in U.S. Naval Ports in “much less populated communities.” 

“Holland America made the reckless decision to begin their voyage knowing that we were in a global pandemic,” he wrote in a statement. “I do not believe that Holland America’s vessels should be granted access to any American port until we have clear and accurate information.””

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, Arcadia said:

Read the article you linked.  That is going to make Florida authorities and the public more wary of Holland America 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241647566.html

“Rep. Chip LaMarca, who represents parts of Broward County, said he agrees the ship needs a plan to treat sick passengers, but that Port Everglades should not be the only solution offered.

“I agree with Gov. Ron DeSantis that medical care should be sent out to the ship,” he wrote in a statement. “I’m all in to help get this done with whatever assets are needed to make this happen.” 

He suggested the ship dock in U.S. Naval Ports in “much less populated communities.” 

“Holland America made the reckless decision to begin their voyage knowing that we were in a global pandemic,” he wrote in a statement. “I do not believe that Holland America’s vessels should be granted access to any American port until we have clear and accurate information.””

Yep.  I feel terrible on one hand that my country is treating people that way but the cruise lines need to take some accountability for their decisions as well.  Cruise ships have been a huge problem.   I was glad they did end up providing medical care to the passengers they could.  

[Ausmumof3]

Melbourne wharfies stood down after refusing to unload Chinese ship

Ship from China carrying toilet paper, other essentials is sitting fully laden on Melbourne's docks with wharfies refusing to unload due to coronavirus fears.

A ship from China carrying toilet paper, surgical masks and tinned food is sitting fully laden on Melbourne's docks with wharfies refusing to unload the cargo due to fears they could catch coronavirus.

In the largest dispute to hit the Port of Melbourne since the COVID-19 outbreak, more than 60 dock workers have been stood down by stevedores DP World in the past 24 hours over their refusal to unload the Xin Da Lian, which left a Taiwanese port less than 14 days ago.

The ship sailed from mainland China on March 17, continued on to Koashiung in Taiwan and then headed to Melbourne two days later.

The Xin Da Lian docked in Melbourne at Swanson Dock on Tuesday. A group of wharfies refused to unload the cargo on Tuesday night as the ship had arrived before the end of the 14-day coronavirus quarantine period.

Twenty two workers were stood down amid the stand-off between the Maritime Union of Australia and the stevedore on Tuesday and another 40 were stood down on Wednesday.

DP World argued the Australian Border Force deemed the vessel compliant and the 14-day rule only applies to ships from mainland China, the Republic of Korea, Italy and Iran.

The company said chemicals for soap and detergent manufacturing, medical supplies, surgical masks, gloves surgical gowns, lab coats and hair nets are aboard the ship now sitting idle at the port. Tinned foods for supermarkets and whitegoods were also being transported.

DP World's chief operating officer Andrew Adam said the vessel had been cleared to berth at DP World by the Australian Border Force and the Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment’s Biosecurity.

“The directions are very clear, and we don’t make the rules, these are defined by Australian Border Force. Any crew members aboard a vessel that has been to mainland China, must have been at sea for 14 days before they are allowed to dock in Australia," Mr Adam said.

"The vessel left Shanghai in China on March 17 and arrived in Melbourne on March 31. It has been out of sea for 14 days. The union is not allowed to unilaterally declare a vessel unsafe: they are not allowed to create their own set of rules.”

But Warren Smith, the union's assistant national secretary, said all vessels should be quarantined for a 14-day period if they arrive from an overseas port and it was wrong to stand down workers who were trying to prevent the spread of the virus.

"It is ridiculous that these workers have been stood down and had their livelihoods threatened for standing up and doing the right thing," Mr Smith said.

"Waterside workers need to be protected to the absolute maximum extent possible so the supply chains into the supermarkets can be maintained ... the workers are simply saying we want some protections here."

The Australian Border Force has been approached for comment.

[Ausmumof3]

We have been told for ages that toilet paper shortages were purely due to panic buying and hoarding because we have local manufacturing.  I was skeptical and this seems to indicate that we do import toilet paper and that’s probably contributing to the shortage.

[ktgrok]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

But it's extremely uncommon. What is the point of raising awareness for something less likely to kill your kid than the flu? Or then being in a car? (Again, correct me if I'm wrong.) 

I am guessing it is to get people to keep kids from playdates, etc because even though they are low risk of death, they can spread it to others. 

And peopel have it stuck in their head that this disease hits mostly 70 yrs and up. It doesn't. A good portion of hospitalized people are under 40. 

[Ausmumof3]

Apologies to all of you in the US for the behaviour of these Australians 😡

https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/throw-the-book-at-them-health-minister-addresses-aspen-controversy-20200331-p54frd.html

[Arcadia]

@Ausmumof3@Pen@mathnerd (personal interest story)

🇮🇹 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/coronavirus-covid-19-italy-chinese-12596712

“FLORENCE: In the storm of infection and death sweeping Italy, one big community stands out to health officials as remarkably unscathed - the 50,000 ethnic Chinese who live in the town of Prato.

Two months ago, the country's Chinese residents were the target of what Amnesty International described as shameful discrimination, the butt of insults and violent attack by people who feared they would spread the coronavirus through Italy.

But in the Tuscan town of Prato, home to Italy's biggest single Chinese community, the opposite has been true. Once scapegoats, they are now held up by authorities as a model for early, strict adoption of infection-control measures.

"We Italians feared that the Chinese of Prato were to be the problem. Instead, they did much better than us," said Renzo Berti, top state health official for the area, which includes Florence.

"Among Chinese residents in Prato there isn't even one case of COVID contagion," he said, referring to COVID-19, which has killed almost 12,000 people in Italy, more than in any other country.

Ethnic Chinese make up about a quarter of Prato's population, but Berti credits them with bringing down the entire town's infection rate to almost half the Italian average - 62 cases per 100,000 inhabitants versus 115 for the country.

Prato's Chinese community, built originally around the textile industry, went into lockdown from the end of January, three weeks before Italy's first recorded infection.

Many were returning from new year holidays in China, the then epicentre.

They knew what was coming and spread the word: stay home.

So as Italians headed to the ski slopes and crowded into cafes and bars as normal, the Chinese inhabitants of Prato had seemingly disappeared. Its streets, still festooned with Chinese New Year decorations, were semi-deserted, shops shuttered.

There is some anecdotal evidence that Chinese people elsewhere in Italy took similar precautions, though national data on infection rates among the community is unavailable. The health ministry did not respond to an email seeking comment.

Milan restaurateur Francesco Wu, a representative of Italian business lobby Confcommercio, said he urged Italian counterparts in February to shut down their businesses, as he had done.

"Most of them looked at me like a Cassandra," he said. "No one could believe it was happening here ... Now Troy is burning and we are all locked inside."

"ITALIAN FRIENDS LOOKED AT ME ODDLY"

When Chinese-born businessman Luca Zhou flew home from China on Feb 4 to rejoin his wife and 28-year-old son in Prato, he put himself straight into quarantine in his bedroom for 14 days, separated from his wife and son.

"We had seen what was happening in China and we were afraid for ourselves, our families and our friends," said the 56-year-old, who has a business exporting Italian wine to China.

After emerging from his self-quarantine, he ventured outside in mask and gloves. He said the few other Chinese on the streets also wore them, anxious not to spread the virus to others.

"My Italian friends looked at me oddly. I tried many times to explain to them that they should wear them ... but they didn't understand," Luca said.

"When I came back to Prato, no Italian authority told me anything. We did it all by ourselves. If we had not done it, we would all be infected, Chinese and Italians."

Italy was one of the first nations to cut air links with China, on Jan 31, though many of its Chinese residents found their way home via third countries. On Feb 8, almost a month before closing all schools, it offered students returning from holidays in China the right to stop attending classes.

"In Prato, there was a boom in take-up," said local health director Berti, saying families had been obliged to contact his authority if they wanted to pursue this option. It was then that he began to realise how differently the Chinese were behaving.

More than 360 families, or around 1,300 people, registered as having put themselves into self-isolation and also signed up to his authority's health surveillance scheme, which monitored symptoms remotely and communicated with them in Chinese.

As Italian infections began to take off in late February and early March, some families, many of whom retain Chinese citizenship, even began sending children to relatives in China, alarmed at the attitude and behaviour of Italians around them.

Another who went into self-isolation after returning home from China was 23-year-old university student Chiara Zheng.

"I was conscious of the gravity of the situation. I felt a duty to do it for other people and those close to me."”

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, Arcadia said:

@Ausmumof3@Pen@mathnerd (personal interest story)

🇮🇹 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/coronavirus-covid-19-italy-chinese-12596712

“FLORENCE: In the storm of infection and death sweeping Italy, one big community stands out to health officials as remarkably unscathed - the 50,000 ethnic Chinese who live in the town of Prato.

Two months ago, the country's Chinese residents were the target of what Amnesty International described as shameful discrimination, the butt of insults and violent attack by people who feared they would spread the coronavirus through Italy.

But in the Tuscan town of Prato, home to Italy's biggest single Chinese community, the opposite has been true. Once scapegoats, they are now held up by authorities as a model for early, strict adoption of infection-control measures.

"We Italians feared that the Chinese of Prato were to be the problem. Instead, they did much better than us," said Renzo Berti, top state health official for the area, which includes Florence.

"Among Chinese residents in Prato there isn't even one case of COVID contagion," he said, referring to COVID-19, which has killed almost 12,000 people in Italy, more than in any other country.

Ethnic Chinese make up about a quarter of Prato's population, but Berti credits them with bringing down the entire town's infection rate to almost half the Italian average - 62 cases per 100,000 inhabitants versus 115 for the country.

Prato's Chinese community, built originally around the textile industry, went into lockdown from the end of January, three weeks before Italy's first recorded infection.

Many were returning from new year holidays in China, the then epicentre.

They knew what was coming and spread the word: stay home.

So as Italians headed to the ski slopes and crowded into cafes and bars as normal, the Chinese inhabitants of Prato had seemingly disappeared. Its streets, still festooned with Chinese New Year decorations, were semi-deserted, shops shuttered.

There is some anecdotal evidence that Chinese people elsewhere in Italy took similar precautions, though national data on infection rates among the community is unavailable. The health ministry did not respond to an email seeking comment.

Milan restaurateur Francesco Wu, a representative of Italian business lobby Confcommercio, said he urged Italian counterparts in February to shut down their businesses, as he had done.

"Most of them looked at me like a Cassandra," he said. "No one could believe it was happening here ... Now Troy is burning and we are all locked inside."

"ITALIAN FRIENDS LOOKED AT ME ODDLY"

When Chinese-born businessman Luca Zhou flew home from China on Feb 4 to rejoin his wife and 28-year-old son in Prato, he put himself straight into quarantine in his bedroom for 14 days, separated from his wife and son.

"We had seen what was happening in China and we were afraid for ourselves, our families and our friends," said the 56-year-old, who has a business exporting Italian wine to China.

After emerging from his self-quarantine, he ventured outside in mask and gloves. He said the few other Chinese on the streets also wore them, anxious not to spread the virus to others.

"My Italian friends looked at me oddly. I tried many times to explain to them that they should wear them ... but they didn't understand," Luca said.

"When I came back to Prato, no Italian authority told me anything. We did it all by ourselves. If we had not done it, we would all be infected, Chinese and Italians."

Italy was one of the first nations to cut air links with China, on Jan 31, though many of its Chinese residents found their way home via third countries. On Feb 8, almost a month before closing all schools, it offered students returning from holidays in China the right to stop attending classes.

"In Prato, there was a boom in take-up," said local health director Berti, saying families had been obliged to contact his authority if they wanted to pursue this option. It was then that he began to realise how differently the Chinese were behaving.

More than 360 families, or around 1,300 people, registered as having put themselves into self-isolation and also signed up to his authority's health surveillance scheme, which monitored symptoms remotely and communicated with them in Chinese.

As Italian infections began to take off in late February and early March, some families, many of whom retain Chinese citizenship, even began sending children to relatives in China, alarmed at the attitude and behaviour of Italians around them.

Another who went into self-isolation after returning home from China was 23-year-old university student Chiara Zheng.

"I was conscious of the gravity of the situation. I felt a duty to do it for other people and those close to me."”

Yes, Chinese people here seem to have been advocating for closures and can’t believe people not wearing masks etc.  I think they probably had more direct info as to what was really happening. 

[Rosie_0801]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

But it's extremely uncommon. What is the point of raising awareness for something less likely to kill your kid than the flu? Or then being in a car? (Again, correct me if I'm wrong.) 

 

Because it really sucks when your kid dies because you neglected some little thing that you could've done, that shouldn't have mattered but did this time.

[Ausmumof3]

20 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Yeah, I would absolutely agree with that messaging. I think everyone 30 and up is already somewhat at risk. So in fact, the parents are NOT invincible. Most people aren't. It's just the kids that seem to thankfully be mostly spared. So far. 

(I'm really hoping this is true, because it's my silver lining in all this. And so far, I haven't seen any data contradicting it, only individual human interest stories.) 

I think Italian data is better than Chinese data in this respect because from what I understand the Chinese culture around protecting the kids is really strong, whereas here schools are the last things to close.  We can’t expect the same outcome without the same behaviour.  I have no idea about Iran I have seen anecdotal reports of 20 something’s but not younger kids.  And I agree, it’s definitely the silver lining.

[Ausmumof3]

@Stella @Rosie @Melissa in Australia @LMD
 

https://amp.smh.com.au/national/former-chinese-military-man-behind-export-of-tonnes-of-medical-supplies-20200330-p54f8a.html?__twitter_impression=true
 

article re export and import to China of medical supplies etc.  Kind of a mix of shady and decent behaviour.  Mostly I’m posting because of the end of the article it mentions the guy behind organising a lot of this is looking at food exports adding to my general concern about the potential for food price rises.

[Rosie_0801]

9 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

But anything you do is going to do that. Any of these extremely unlikely kid deaths will involve something you did you shouldn't have mattered but did. It doesn't make sense as risk assessment to focus on the unlikely events. 

Look, can someone tell me whether coronavirus is more dangerous than the flu for a kid? What is the danger level comparable to? 

 

The fewer parents crying "why didn't anyone tell me?" the better.

How can anyone provide numbers for whether this coronavirus is more dangerous than any of the enormous numbers of flu virus that go around? No one knows the mortality rates until afterwards.

[Ausmumof3]

14 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

But anything you do is going to do that. Any of these extremely unlikely kid deaths will involve something you did you shouldn't have mattered but did. It doesn't make sense as risk assessment to focus on the unlikely events. 

Look, can someone tell me whether coronavirus is more dangerous than the flu for a kid? What is the danger level comparable to? 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/these-underlying-conditions-make-coronavirus-more-severe-and-they-are-surprisingly-common/
 

this is from 10th of March so somewhat outdated.  It does show more deadly than flu for the 10-19 age group but no deaths in the under 9.  I guess the issue is because there’s so few in that age for both one death either way makes an apparent massive difference.

[Rosie_0801]

8 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Hugs and love, Rosie 😞

I’m so glad this isn’t hitting kids hard because I don’t know how I’d get through losing two children in a year.  I’m sure I would, but who knows how.

I do think it’s critical that strong messaging at this stage of the spread convey that everyone, including children, need to stay out of public and avoid contact with non family members.  Full stop.  I’m just wary of the articles focusing on kids and not providing context to help people be wary but also fully informed of the numbers as they stand and the trends we have seen.

 

I have no control over whether dd lives or not. Health decisions are made entirely by her custodials and if they want to send her to school with sick kids, that's what they do.

(Schools are shut for the holidays, atm, but they kept sending her until the last day of term, which was a good fortnight after I'd have pulled her out, and I daresay they'll send her the minute schools open again.)

So, to the bolded, yeah. I'm with ya.

[Rosie_0801]

6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

We have lots of numbers on this already. We've been estimating things for a while. 

A big problem with people's decision-making is that instead of thinking about whether something is one in a million or one in a thousand, they think about how they'd feel if they (or their child) were "that one." And that leads to irrational decision-making. But that's another rant. 

 

And not really an appropriate one when in the company of people with dead kids.

[Terabith]

26 minutes ago, Rosie_0801 said:

 

Because it really sucks when your kid dies because you neglected some little thing that you could've done, that shouldn't have mattered but did this time.

((((((((Rosie)))))))))))