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gardenmom5

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11 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

😞

On the plus side, numbers at school dropped so fast - I think we're up to 93% absent in NSW - that they became much less risky environments for the 7%.

Hopefully this holds true for VIC when the schools go back.

 

We just stepped up to level 3 lockdown until the end of the holidays (14/4) I would be very surprised if the schools go straight back - at least for most students. 

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37 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

@Stella @Rosie @Melissa in Australia @LMD
 

https://amp.smh.com.au/national/former-chinese-military-man-behind-export-of-tonnes-of-medical-supplies-20200330-p54f8a.html?__twitter_impression=true
 

article re export and import to China of medical supplies etc.  Kind of a mix of shady and decent behaviour.  Mostly I’m posting because of the end of the article it mentions the guy behind organising a lot of this is looking at food exports adding to my general concern about the potential for food price rises.

Yes, honestly the supply chain issue is the thing that made us first start to stock up. Even simple things like wrappers/packing not being imported affect the ability to move product.

On the plus side, lots of farmers are opening farm gate sales around here, and the bartering economy is alive and well!

Edited by LMD
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42 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

But anything you do is going to do that. Any of these extremely unlikely kid deaths will involve something you did you shouldn't have mattered but did. It doesn't make sense as risk assessment to focus on the unlikely events. 

Look, can someone tell me whether coronavirus is more dangerous than the flu for a kid? What is the danger level comparable to? 

 

You are sounding about this aspect (danger for children) like people were sounding mid January about CV19 in general.  

“Pooh, Pooh, it’s no big deal”, “no worse than the common flu” etc. 

personally, I would see it as either inaccurate data out of China, or very likely that the virus mutated and is now far more deadly for kids

Edited by Pen
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Just now, square_25 said:

 

Again, I'm sorry :-(. I apologize for putting my foot in it. I'm still kind of new on here and I don't know everyone's background. 

 

Really, no apology required. Nobody on here is going to remember everyone's background. There are too many of us! Everyone has problems and those of us with this particular one know we're not the only ones in the world.

You're fine. ❤️

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I saved this from another thread here, and now I don’t remember who posted it. 

 I thought it illustrated very well that the threat from this virus isn’t just death, the hospitalization rate is so much worse than the flu.  Especially when I think that many of those hospitalizations could be deaths with no medical treatment, which is what we could be facing if the hospitals get overwhelmed.  Even under 18 is a 10% hospitalization rate. 

image.png

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42 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

That's exactly right. I've definitely seen people on this forum get the impression that, because of these articles, the rates for kids in the US are different than they were elsewhere. That might happen at some point, if the virus mutates, but it hasn't happened yet. And I think we should encourage the social responsibility without destroying this silver lining. People panicking isn't a good thing. 

On the other hand, I do want people not to organize any (non-virtual) playdates. Behave, people!! Argh. 

You get rate data from up to date graphs with rate data. You get information that the youngest European so far has died from a news story about that. They are two different things. They tell us different things and I would not have either of them censored. 

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Trauma cases in ICUs seem to have slowed, Deputy Chief Medical Officer says

Paul Kelly says "at the moment there is no pressure on our ICUs", saying fewer than 100 COVID-19 cases in Australia have ended up in the intensive care unit.

   

He says our ICUs are experiencing less trauma cases than they normally would be — putting that decrease down to social distancing measures.

    

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5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I would guess these are overestimated, since most people don't come in to get tested... however, that's still very high :-(.

 

I think that’s true of all of the data from everywhere except maybe S. Korea.  I’m not sure we’ll ever know really.  

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2 hours ago, RootAnn said:

On the kid front, this is the part I thought was important. Do the younger people (translated as under 50, let's say) who die have something in common? If there is a commonality, I want them looking. I know there was talk at the beginning of this about something to do with the cytokine storm (I think) where there was a genetic mutation more common in some Asians that doctors thought might make this virus more deadly for those individuals. I haven't heard that since this spread worldwide, though. I'd love to know someone is looking for things that could help us determine who is more susceptible, why some people seem to be asymptomatic, what mutations of the virus might make it less deadly or less contagious, etc.

 

The genetic mutation in any one of the 10 or so proteins that influences the perforin pathway and can lead to cytokine storm is found in 10-15% of people, not Asians. (You might be thinking of ACE2 receptors. The greater numbers of ACE2 receptors seen in some Asians might actually be caused more by the high rates of smoking in males in China.)

Children who are dying from Covid might have an undiagnosed heart problem or some other undiagnosed medical problem. Some might also have a genetic mutation causing cytokine storm. Most will probably be fine.

It seems that the ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes is giving a good indication as to how a person will be affected if they get infected. I’m going to be reading more about this but iirc, a ratio of 3 or less is very good and those people are symptomatic or have very mild symptoms. 20 is not good. I have to read more about this though.

The virus might also mutate so that it’s less deadly (and possibly more infectious, hard to say). A strain was found in some Singapore cases that showed this but I think it was only found there (maybe Belgium too but not sure). SARS mutated to have a similar deletion and Covid might do the same eventually.

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😡https://www.ktvu.com/news/crowds-of-450-gather-in-oakland-for-illegal-sideshows-during-coronavirus-pandemic
“OAKLAND, Calif. - Despite the need to social distance and a statewide shelter-in-place, Oakland police said that about 450 people gathered over the weekend to watch drivers perform dangerous and illegal stunts.

Not only that, but the crowds on Sunday were big and the spectators were not practicing social distancing. 

One sideshow drew dozens of observers near 55th Avenue and Foothill Boulevard, while another happened at 38th Avenue and International Boulevard, according to social-media posts and videos.

Video posted by Oakland Side Show Muscle Cars showed people, mostly young men, defying the stay-at-home order, and instead, crowding intersections, and cheering the sideshows. 

In one scene, a gray car with three or four people inside, circled around the street around and around, with onlookers snapping photos, drinking beers and cheering. Smoke billowed from the burning tires. 

Oakland police say they arrested three people, cited 14 others and towed 12 cars.”

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2 hours ago, square_25 said:

I don't think we're seeing evidence for that. It's still far easier on kids than everyone else. 

 

🤔 I do. 

First it was thought to affect kids almost not at all.

Then the Diamond Princess testing showed that adults and kids were infected at the same rate, but children had truly mild (in normal meaning of the word — not meaning short of hospital needed to support breathing).

Then China released information that 6% of pediatric cases were actually severe (11% of infants)  (see screen shot below)    Yes, 6% is low compared to 19% for adults. So “far easier” still applies.  But it is a very high rate compared to zero or a very rare anomaly perhaps with underlying other health factors, especially along with DP info that children are infected at rates similar to adults. 

Now the West has started seeing deaths in apparently previously healthy children.

 

As to the contention that it is just like flu for children, I don’t have a severity statistic for flu in children to compare, but don’t think 6% are severe to critical. ??? Do you have that statistic? 

What I do have is deaths statistics and so far as per worldometer.info, death rate for CV19 in the younger groups over age 9 is 0.2%      influenza death rate for the young groups is ~ 0.01% a whole order of magnitude less. 

So, other than that you may be thinking of only little kids (perhaps because that is what you have) when you say “children” and not including a 12 yo in your thoughts of what is a “child”, CV19 seems to be some *20 times* worse.  In many families, even if it spares the 8 yo with mild illness (which is not guaranteed), the 8yo May have a 12 yo sibling, who may have 12 and 13yo friends...

((Younger children may also have been thus far in part just lucky that the disease didn’t have a big outbreak in something like a huge orphanage —and maybe lucky that these don’t so much exist anymore—where it could sweep through like in a long term care home. ))

 

106095C2-82CC-4A10-9342-751B3250B1CF.jpeg

Edited by Pen
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The baggage handler thing at the airport here blew up more.  Apparently now 13 infected, the first case was almost a month ago and they are advising anyone who’s been in the airport or even the car park in the last 14 days to monitor and go for testing if they develop symptoms.  No one can go through security anymore unless they have a boarding pass so no waving goodbye or hello.  (Although that’s probably a commonsense precaution right now anyway even if there was no baggage handler debacle)

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The baggage handler thing at the airport here blew up more.  Apparently now 13 infected, the first case was almost a month ago and they are advising anyone who’s been in the airport or even the car park in the last 14 days to monitor and go for testing if they develop symptoms.  No one can go through security anymore unless they have a boarding pass so no waving goodbye or hello.  (Although that’s probably a commonsense precaution right now anyway even if there was no baggage handler debacle)

And all the Americans chuckled. 😉 

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6 minutes ago, Acorn said:

I did. It’s been a long time.

Almost 19 years. Can you believe it? I vividly remember my last time seeing someone off.  Though I’ve saved a lot of parking and walking time since then!

ETA: It does go to show that we’re pretty adaptable. The idea of doing things that once seemed so “normal” is now alarming.

Edited by Carrie12345
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6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I really don’t believe the Chinese numbers, as I’ve said, so I’m a bit skeptical these numbers are meaningful :-(. Thank you for linking, though — I do like seeing the studies!

I agree about the Chinese numbers. However since about 1/4 of the people they were looking at were outside of China that helps. All this needs the standard disclaimers - too much we don't know! 

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20 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah. The uncertainty is hard.

It is! This study seemed very well done, though. I think their CFR of .66% could be low, but it gives me a fair amount of confidence that we won't be seeing a CFR of 2-4% which initial numbers pointed at. 

Standard disclaimers - too much we don't know. Doesn't change seriousness of situation. Doesn't change the fact that we don't know long term effects. 

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Comment from Dr Paul Kelly (deputy chief Medical officer for Australia). “In fact, up to now, we’ve never had a successful vaccine against a coronavirus (other than COVID-19).

“This is (an) experimental time.”

This comment concerns me.  I have seen mention of significant issues with attempted SARS vaccines.  

 

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12 hours ago, square_25 said:

But what if it's about as risky as the flu? Which I think is true.

It's riskier than the flu even for kids, but I vaccinate DS against the flu and don't have to worry that his scout troop includes, say, 5 or 10 kids at a time who have it but are asymptomatic. I know it's tempting to compare this new thing against a better-known thing, but it has limited usefulness.

10 hours ago, Arcadia said:

That is going to make Florida authorities and the public more wary of Holland America

Many cruise companies delayed taking responsible action and should be suspect in the future, but Florida officials calling anybody else foolish for taking risks with spreading C19 = the pot calling the kettle black.

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Someone already posted stats for the flu — you’re right, this is orders of magnitude worse. I already agreed I had been wrong about that. I just hadn’t checked the numbers carefully before posting — my apologies.

 

Sorry. Missed the posts where it was already dealt with!

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Several groups working on a way to do contact tracing/follow-up testing/isolation via app/website & cell phone data so this level/scope of wide-spread lockdown hopefully won't be necessary in a few months. Lots of issues with this still need to be figured out, but people working on it.

NextTrace

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6 hours ago, Arcadia said:

😡https://www.ktvu.com/news/crowds-of-450-gather-in-oakland-for-illegal-sideshows-during-coronavirus-pandemic
“OAKLAND, Calif. - Despite the need to social distance and a statewide shelter-in-place, Oakland police said that about 450 people gathered over the weekend to watch drivers perform dangerous and illegal stunts.

Not only that, but the crowds on Sunday were big and the spectators were not practicing social distancing. 

One sideshow drew dozens of observers near 55th Avenue and Foothill Boulevard, while another happened at 38th Avenue and International Boulevard, according to social-media posts and videos.

Video posted by Oakland Side Show Muscle Cars showed people, mostly young men, defying the stay-at-home order, and instead, crowding intersections, and cheering the sideshows. 

In one scene, a gray car with three or four people inside, circled around the street around and around, with onlookers snapping photos, drinking beers and cheering. Smoke billowed from the burning tires. 

Oakland police say they arrested three people, cited 14 others and towed 12 cars.”

 

I suspect that’s nowhere near enough arrests etc to shut that down. For young mostly men wanting to do or watch illegal and dangerous car stunts, a small added risk of arrest probably adds to their thrills. 

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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

It's a long and fast-moving thread! 🙂 I do try to be data-driven. 

 

A bit of an issue with data in a fast moving pandemic is that by time data is significant as data, it may be on late side for effective action as biology.  Humans Waiting for statistically meaningful sample sizes and numbers probably helped this virus get established. 

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Comment from Dr Paul Kelly (deputy chief Medical officer for Australia). “In fact, up to now, we’ve never had a successful vaccine against a coronavirus (other than COVID-19).

“This is (an) experimental time.”

This comment concerns me.  I have seen mention of significant issues with attempted SARS vaccines.  

 

 

Vaccine development has improved tremendously recently. I think they’ll have a vaccine and more anti-viral treatments.

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44 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Oh, statistically meaningful sample sizes aren't that large, are they? 😉 The problem is lack of randomization, not the sizes. 

I'm not that interested in waiting for randomized controlled trials, lol. We have to do our best with the data we've got. 

 

With regard to real life, not clinical trials,  I think sample size is important. And even more so, how we look at it. 

You are (or were?) looking at a couple of deaths in 12, 13 year olds as insignificant risk per population. Tiny risk per million, less than riding school bus, didn’t you say? 

 I am looking at a couple of dead 12, 13 year olds (and there could be more) as the possible tip of a huge ice berg of a next direction the virus is taking.

So that difference in viewpoint then changes how we look at what should be conveyed in media etc. 

If you wait till it looks like a statistically huge risk per population, more deadly than going on schoolbus or slipping in bathtub, I think it is likely to be at the too late point.

  

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On 3/30/2020 at 8:17 AM, Arcadia said:

@square_25@TCB

“A photo of health care professionals from Georgia on a Southwest plane on their way to help with the coronavirus outbreak in New York is getting lots of love online.

...There were about 30 health care professionals, all from Atlanta-area hospitals, who were on the regularly scheduled flight to LaGuardia Airport, Hubbard said.

"These brave souls soldier on in the midst of tremendous risk and exposure, constantly putting the needs of others above their own," Southwest Airlines wrote in an Instagram post on Sunday. "Their selfless sacrifice is a beacon of light during such a dark time in our world, and no amount of gratitude and praise would ever be enough."”

http://nbcbay.com/mBtcxMH

I thought the Atlanta area was pretty hard hit, too, que no? (que no = isn't it?, or similar)

 

19 hours ago, pitterpatter said:

This reminds me of the scene in The Great Brain book series where the healthy kids had to sleep in the same bed as the infected kid(s) so they all would contract the chicken pox at the same time. I've actually thought about this scene several times during this pandemic. I don't think I'd be trying it.

 

Which reminds me of the "chicken pox parties..." people would advertise having. Ie, "hey my kid has chicken pox, anyone want a playdate?" or "Does anyone know of anyone's kid with chicken pox? My kid's at a good age to catch it..." or something along those lines. 

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5 minutes ago, Renai said:

Which reminds me of the "chicken pox parties..." people would advertise having. Ie, "hey my kid has chicken pox, anyone want a playdate?" or "Does anyone know of anyone's kid with chicken pox? My kid's at a good age to catch it..." or something along those lines. 

Well, I see no issue with chicken pox parties but I do with coronavirus camps. Big differences between the two although in both cases, the people being infected seem to be unwilling participants (kids & the drivers). 

I do wonder if, at some point, some people will try to catch covid19 so they can get an immunity certificate & get back to work.

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Antibiotic resistance in Italy is the highest in all of Europe and is probably making it difficult to treat secondary bacterial infections from Covid. Iceland is the lowest. Germany is quite low, too.

https://www.oecd.org/italy/Stemming-the-Superbug-Tide-in-Italy.pdf

https://www.statista.com/chart/16012/median-number-of-deaths-due-to-antibiotic-resistance-bacteria/

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2 hours ago, Plum said:

@TCB

NBC just aired a piece about helmet ventilation. I know dh’s hospital put in orders. I’ve been hoping to see this! He’s giving the design for free for more people to make it. Non-invasive ventilation is so much better according to the studies. It avoids intubation problems. Sedation drug shortages. ICU bed shortages. ♥️♥️♥️

And how can I forget? No ventilator required!

and the small family owned businesses is only selling it for $162  😭🙏🏻♥️


https://www.today.com/video/small-company-in-texas-town-could-have-new-solution-to-ventilator-shortage-81480261958?playlist=mmlsnnd_55339009-nnd

This is an amazing thing and so low cost! I’m just a little unsure about how effective it is for Covid. I read a few accounts from Seattle that seemed to state that NIV - non invasive ventilation- had not been very effective for these patients, and because of the risk of aerosolizing (?sp) it was considered better to just intubate. Of course if you have no ventilators you can’t just intubate everyone. So this may be what we will have to do and judging from the pictures from Italy they were using them a lot.

It is really great that they are so inexpensive and hopefully easy to produce!

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an interesting tidbit that has come up, and can definitely be an indicator of scope - is number of cellphone accounts during a period compared to the previous year.   right now - from dec - feb china had 21million cell accounts closed.  you have to have a cell phone to buy a train ticket, and they are using them for monitoring a persons health status (per NYT) so you have to have it to travel period.  the same time period the previous year, they had an increase of 6.6Million users.

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28 minutes ago, Plum said:

Thank you. I will look that up. 
Would it be better for the patients that are hospitalized but don’t require ventilation to help them recover faster and avoid possible intubation? I’m trying to see the possible uses. 

It may be helpful for them. Hopefully more information will come from those in the epicenters now. I have seen several mentions of having the patient lie prone even when still on 2 liters oxygen via nasal cannula and that it may help slow progression.

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3 minutes ago, gardenmom5 said:

an interesting tidbit that has come up, and can definitely be an indicator of scope - is number of cellphone accounts during a period compared to the previous year.   right now - from dec - feb china had 21million cell accounts closed.  you have to have a cell phone to buy a train ticket, and they are using them for monitoring a persons health status (per NYT) so you have to have it to travel period.  the same time period the previous year, they had an increase of 6.6Million users.

The population of Wuhan is only 11 million. What are we arguing here? That it's widespread across China? Do we know where the 21 million cancellations were?

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The European version of NextTrace:

Quote

 

A group of European experts said on Wednesday they would soon launch technology for smartphones to help trace people who had come into contact with those infected with coronavirus, helping the health authorities act swiftly to halt its spread.

The initiative involves gathering data via smartphones to show who a person with the virus had come in close contact with, so that those people at risk could then be contacted.

The ability to track down those at risk of infection more accurately could help avoid having to 'lock down' entire societies, with the resulting hugely damaging economic impact.

...

Epidemiologists say contact tracing will become a vital weapon in containing future flare-ups in COVID-19, the flu-like disease caused by coronavirus, once national lockdowns slow the rapid spread of the virus.

The illness can be passed on by people showing no symptoms, putting a premium on warning those at risk of infection swiftly after an individual tests positive, while technology can be used to avoid the sweeping national measures to halt the spread.

"We all know that, as a society and an economy, we cannot go on like this for an extended period of time," Marcel Salathe, professor of digital epidemiology at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, told a news briefing.

"There is a more efficient way to break this exponential trend of growth."

 

https://news.trust.org/item/20200401131119-famq1

Edited by RootAnn
fixed quote box a bit.
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https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/national-international/coast-guard-cruise-ships-must-stay-at-sea-with-sick-onboard-amid-pandemic/2265385/

“The U.S. Coast Guard has directed all cruise ships to remain at sea where they may be sequestered “indefinitely" during the coronavirus pandemic and be prepared to send any severely ill passengers to the countries where the vessels are registered. 

For most of the South Florida's cruise ships, that means the Bahamas, where people are still recovering from last year's hurricanes.

CORONAVIRUS LATEST

The rules, which apply to any vessel carrying more than 50 people, were issued in a March 29 safety bulletin signed by Coast Guard Rear Admiral E.C. Jones, whose district includes Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Puerto Rico.

More than two dozen cruise ships are either lined up at Port Miami and Port Everglades or waiting offshore, the Miami Herald reported. Most have only crew aboard, but several still carry passengers and are steaming toward South Florida ports. Carnival notified the SEC Tuesday that it has more than 6,000 passengers still at sea. 

Federal, state and local officials have been negotiating over whether two Holland America cruise ships that had been stranded off the coast of Panama with sick and dead passengers would be allowed to dock at Port Everglades this week. More than 300 American citizens are on the two ships.

...

Under normal conditions, when a passenger or crew member become too ill for the ship's medical team to care for, they call the Coast Guard to provide a medical evacuation to an onshore hospital. Under the new rules, sick passengers would be sequestered indefinitely on board.

“This is necessary as shore-side medical facilities may reach full capacity and lose the ability to accept and effectively treat additional critically-ill patients," the memo said.

The document requires all ships in U.S. waters to report their numbers of sick and dead on board each day or face civil penalties or criminal prosecution. 

Cruise ships with sick passengers must consult with the Coast Guard, which may now recommend keeping the sick person on board the ship. The Coast Guard will decide if a transfer is absolutely necessary, but the cruise line would be responsible for arranging on-shore transportation and hospital beds.”

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