wuhan - coronavirus

[Katy]

Just now, wilrunner said:

This is part of what I was wondering. But would the patient be aware enough to know, as curious mom mentioned?

 

Aware enough to know what?  That they felt like they are dying and need help?  From some reports yes, people need to be sedated to be ventilated with this too.  But with others it seems like they aren't aware how sick they are and drop dead at home, so I don't think we know that yet.  I've helped people in respiratory distress but honestly I don't feel I know enough about it generally to answer that any better.  Most of my patients who came in and needed to be transferred to the ICU came in for pneumonia and it turned out they had cancer everywhere.  That's a very different scenario than this virus.

[Ausmumof3]

All essential workers in Aus will have access to free childcare from tomorrow.

so far we’ve had

Amalgamation of public and private health systems

job seeker/job keeper payments (Increases on the normal)

free childcare 

Almost all things that this gov would have strongly opposed in normal circumstances.  Obviously temporary and circumstance specific but I must admit I’m wondering whether some changes will be more long term.

[Ausmumof3]

5 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

Yikes.

Yeah.  I’m now like never leaving the house again!  

[Katy]

4 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

Yikes.

 

Yes, this is why it makes so many other professionals I know feel this emotional state that's close to panic.  Or maybe it's anticipatory grief.  Dying patients are emotionally difficult enough.  Being so overwhelmed you cannot provide everyone the care they need is terrifying.

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, StellaM said:

PM in AU says 'no chance of restarting the economy for at least six months'. 

Aussie WTM'ers - is the federal government doing better in the last week, do you reckon?  They seem to be? Also...most unexpected outcome of the entire pandemic....Sally McManus, head of ACTU, being thanked by Scotty ??!!

I think scomo learned some lessons from the bushfire crisis and has been much more proactive about that.  I think there’s still a leaning to economy over life.  I’ve got to say although I don’t particularly like the guy he’s copped a heck of a bad time to be prime minster.  Abbott and Turnbull are probably thanking their lucky stars they got turfed when they did.  I think he’s making a lot of decisions that probably go against the grain.  

[Tree Frog]

Just now, Katy said:

 

Aware enough to know what?  That they felt like they are dying and need help?  From some reports yes, people need to be sedated to be ventilated with this too.  But with others it seems like they aren't aware how sick they are and drop dead at home, so I don't think we know that yet.  I've helped people in respiratory distress but honestly I don't feel I know enough about it generally to answer that any better.  Most of my patients who came in and needed to be transferred to the ICU came in for pneumonia and it turned out they had cancer everywhere.  That's a very different scenario than this virus.

Thank you for your response. I won't like your posts. It's all too sad.

One thing I have to do periodically is remind myself that, though the death rate is higher than anyone would like, the likelihood of anyone in our family dying is pretty low. I think the likelihood of all of us contacting it is fairly high, especially with dd working and dh getting take out twice a day.

[Ausmumof3]

I also think we’ve seen a significant movement away from following America on making policy.   Is that controversial?  I hope not.

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.theguardian.com/society/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-intensive-care-uk-patients-50-per-cent-survival-rate?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet&__twitter_impression=true
 

the 50 percent stat from ICU.  I do think again the stats may be worse early in the outbreak?  Because people going to the icu stage are people that go down very quickly.  People going into intensive care in a couple of weeks may be stronger to start with so more chance of pulling through?  I’m hoping so.

[Ausmumof3]

Prime Minister Scott Morrison says Australia has reached a testing rate of more than 1,000 tests per 100,000 people, about 1 per cent of the population. He says the Government will also provide support to 13,000 childcare centres across the country to ensure they remain open.

[RootAnn]

I have to be careful what I say because of an anxious kid, but I am the President of Covid-19 Operation Force  (COF) in our house for a reason:  I know more (because of the Hive) than just about everyone else in my state. I'm in charge of setting up the new procedures (package & mail quarantine, mailbox gloves, gloves for pumping gas, wiping down groceries, wiping down everything after DH comes home, etc). I'm sure DH thinks I'm over-reacting, but he's been pretty good about humorimg me. And yes, I am a bit insufferable about already knowing things because I stopped telling him stuff because he got tired of hearing it.

Not sure how he's going to take my newest task (hospital to go bags - thanks, @Garga?) I was in the middle of getting my mom's will rewritten when everything locked down. Not sure if people can witness a will online....

If the cruise ship people can be securely quarantined until they get private flights, that's probably best. They are people & even stupid people deserve mercy & kindness. 

[Ausmumof3]

2 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

Is that testing rate good, bad or indifferent ?

I think it’s good.  It actually surprised me given the requirements for access to testing that that many people fit the profile.

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

Is that testing rate good, bad or indifferent ?

For comparison

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

this was from 9/3 at which point we were testing 325/million so it looks like a big increase 

[Pen]

54 minutes ago, square_25 said:

No, I don't think it's disturbing. A LOT of the cases are new. That means they don't have resolutions. 

That, and we're going to have a much harder time tracking recovered people as opposed to dead people. Dead bodies don't disappear in the same way. 

I wouldn't worry about this statistic. I think any epidemiologist would tell you it's not meaningful. 

 

I can see if there are a lot of new cases discovered only at death how that would skew the statistics hugely.

And we don’t have our treatment ducks in line.

But I thought it was supposed to usually be around 3 weeks from case discovery to either death or recovery,  such that the concluded cases would be primarily the rough results from cases that were new  ~ 3 weeks prior. 

 

59 minutes ago, TCB said:

I think the survival rate is going to go up quite a lot quite quickly once we get our feet under us. I don’t think what is going on these first few weeks is indicative of what the survival rate for ventilated patients will be soon. I think that was what happened in Wuhan too. That’s why not overwhelming the health system is so important.

 

I hope so.  

[Melissa in Australia]

37 minutes ago, StellaM said:

PM in AU says 'no chance of restarting the economy for at least six months'. 

Aussie WTM'ers - is the federal government doing better in the last week, do you reckon?  They seem to be? Also...most unexpected outcome of the entire pandemic....Sally McManus, head of ACTU, being thanked by Scotty ??!!

well I am still stuck on the PM saying buying jigsaws is an essential shopping trip

[Arcadia]

Just now, Melissa in Australia said:

well I am still stuck on the PM saying buying jigsaws is an essential shopping trip

Keep the children entertained while parents work from home 😉 

As an aside, jigsaws on tables at the cancer center I go to for my appointments is very popular with patients.

[Arcadia]

13 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

If the cruise ship people can be securely quarantined until they get private flights, that's probably best. They are people & even stupid people deserve mercy & kindness. 

Zaandam and Rotterdam are supposed to reach the port tomorrow. Hopefully Holland America comes up with a legal binding plan and abides by it. If Holland America “play dirty”, the other cruise ships waiting to dock in Florida suffers. 

[Melissa in Australia]

3 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

Keep the children entertained while parents work from home 😉 

As an aside, jigsaws on tables at the cancer center I go to for my appointments is very popular with patients.

I know what Jigsaws are good for. I was just a bit shocked when our PM announced that you should only leave the house for essential shopping only , then gave the example of buying jigsaws- something that can be bought online 

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

well I am still stuck on the PM saying buying jigsaws is an essential shopping trip

I’ve been laughing about it because I bought jigsaws to send to a friend with a broken arm and we have been doing jigsaws.  Saying to dh, see I’m ahead of the PM yet again!  
 

but yes the definition of an essential shopping trip is very broad right now.  I think they do want to give people time to stock up for the next six months.  I hope that doesn’t impact too much on our ability to slow things down.

[Ausmumof3]

3 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

Zaandam and Rotterdam are supposed to reach the port tomorrow. Hopefully Holland America comes up with a legal binding plan and abides by it. If Holland America “play dirty”, the other cruise ships waiting to dock in Florida suffers. 

This seems to be what happened with the one in Fremantle.  They initially refused permission to dock, changed that on humanitarian grounds and now the ship is refusing to leave.  

[BeachGal]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Anyone seen reliable info about Ecuador?  That situation looks bad

 

Yeah, looks bad and could be true.

I’m on another forum that’s discussing Covid. Areas prone to Dengue are seeing increases which might be Covid and not Dengue. 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30158-4/fulltext

Quote

Dengue and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are difficult to distinguish because they have shared clinical and laboratory features. We describe two patients in Singapore with false-positive results from rapid serological testing for dengue, who were later confirmed to have severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, the causative virus of COVID-19.

 

I’ll ask if anyone knows more about Ecuador.

[Ausmumof3]

18 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yes, the concluded cases (the ones being tracked) are from like a month ago, and the deaths are much newer. So it just doesn't make sense to divide. 

Because you’re mathy you might like this on various methods of calculating cfr during SARS. 

https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

[Sk8ermaiden]

42 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

Keep the children entertained while parents work from home 😉 

As an aside, jigsaws on tables at the cancer center I go to for my appointments is very popular with patients.

This is a jigsaw in the US, so I was 😅 at this! I mean, obviously I could figure it out, but it was a funny image. 
https://www.amazon.com/BLACK-DECKER-BDEJS600C-Select-5-0-Amp/dp/B00OJ72LHK/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=jigsaw&qid=1585800194&sr=8-2

Edited April 2, 2020 by Sk8ermaiden

[Sk8ermaiden]

5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

You mean one would have to say jigsaw puzzle? 

I think the boxes say jigsaw puzzle, but in my whole life I've only ever heard them called puzzles. "We're doing a puzzle." 

I do think it's funny/interesting they're called jigsaw puzzles and our country picked puzzle and yours picked jigsaw. 

[Paige]

I think our fatality rate is artificially high right now because most people can only be tested if they are really, really, sick or already dead. All of the people with mild symptoms or are asymptomatic aren't being counted.

[itsheresomewhere]

59 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

 

Yeah, looks bad and could be true.

I’m on another forum that’s discussing Covid. Areas prone to Dengue are seeing increases which might be Covid and not Dengue. 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30158-4/fulltext

 

I’ll ask if anyone knows more about Ecuador.

It is bad down there from what I know.   One of DH’s friends FIL who lives in Ecuador just passed away this week from Covid.  

[Jean in Newcastle]

24 minutes ago, Sk8ermaiden said:

I think the boxes say jigsaw puzzle, but in my whole life I've only ever heard them called puzzles. "We're doing a puzzle." 

I do think it's funny/interesting they're called jigsaw puzzles and our country picked puzzle and yours picked jigsaw. 

?  Jigsaw, puzzle and jigsaw puzzle are used interchangeably. 

[SoCal_Bear]

NY Post reports that EMTs are no longer taking cardiac arrest patients to hospitals if they are unable to be revived on the scene. 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/coronavirus-nyc-emts-stop-taking-cardiac-arrest-patients-to-hospitals/

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-38808-z
 

apparently the louder you speak the more droplets you put out so might explain it the high rate of spread in the choir

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Sk8ermaiden said:

This is a jigsaw in the US, so I was 😅 at this! I mean, obviously I could figure it out, but it was a funny image. 
https://www.amazon.com/BLACK-DECKER-BDEJS600C-Select-5-0-Amp/dp/B00OJ72LHK/ref=sr_1_2?keywords=jigsaw&qid=1585800194&sr=8-2

We call the tools jigsaws too.  I think they used to make wooden puzzles using that kind of tool or similar and that’s how it got the name.  Jigsaw puzzle because they were made with a jigsaw.  Now they’re made out of cardboard but here we still call them jigsaws

[Ausmumof3]

9 news Qantas have confirmed that an Adelaide Pilot has tested positive for COVID 19. The airline says this case isn't related to another cluster at the airport where 12 baggage handlers and 5 close contacts of them have tested positive. 

[vonfirmath]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Anyone seen reliable info about Ecuador?  That situation looks bad

 

I'm praying hard for Ecuador. The first sponsored child who mentioned coronavirus in a letter to me (written at the end of January) lives in Guayaquil. I also have a 5 year old in Quito and a few more kids in Ecuador -- I hope the jungles at least are safe but when I saw people fled there I'm really worried.

[Arcadia]

@Ausmumof3

🇦🇺 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/covid-19-australia-cruise-ships-crew-coronavirus-12601274

“SYDNEY: Australian police and military will soon begin helicoptering doctors to several cruise ships stranded near Sydney to assess nearly 9,000 crew for COVID-19, officials said on Thursday (Apr 2).

The military-style operation, due to begin by the weekend, is aimed at resolving a standoff between cruise line operators and authorities who fear a wave of new imported coronavirus cases would overwhelm local hospitals.

Australia ordered a ban on all cruise liners in mid-March, but later allowed Australian nationals to disembark from four ships in Sydney - a decision which led to more than 450 new COVID-19 cases in the country.

"I'm holding the line on this," said Police Commissioner Mick Fuller of New South Wales state, which includes Sydney and where most of the cruise ships are located.

"My fear is by bringing 9,000 people off the cruise ships into isolation, not knowing if they have the virus or they may develop symptoms, that would absolutely overload our hospital system," he said on Thursday.

"We will drop doctors across eight ships, 9,000 people - It's a big task in itself," he said.

Fuller said anyone found to need urgent medical care would be brought to facilities onshore, but the ships would be expected to head to their home ports with the rest of their crews.”

[ElizabethB]

Forget toilet paper, you can't buy chickens!!

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article241651336.html

[Robin M]

4 hours ago, wilrunner said:

This is part of what I was wondering. But would the patient be aware enough to know, as curious mom mentioned?

No, you aren’t aware because they give you morphine while intubating (sp). At least that is what happened when i passed out from hyperventilating because lungs were filling up with water. Happened many years ago when had congestive heart failure and once I passed out, wasn't aware of anything. 

If they are giving these folks morphine or using the old fashioned plastic ventilators, the ones you compress by hand, when unable to get them on mechanical ventilators quick enough, they should be okay. But yes, it will cause the patient some panic until aid is given.  

Edited April 2, 2020 by Robin M

[lewelma]

6 hours ago, Pen said:

I would like to see the cases with conclusions starting to head toward a 3% or so death rate. Instead trend has been going toward climbing death rate.  Does anyone else find this disturbing?

current bottom? 20% deaths, 

yesterday : 19% deaths 

and a few days ago it was 17% deaths 

Here in NZ, the numbers are 723 cases, 2 in ICU, 14 more in hospital, and one death.  A good half of the 723 cases are from the past 7 days, so they may still end up in ICU. But it seems that we are testing way way more than most countries, and we are just not seeing any where close to those types of percentages here. Even if you go with only 300 cases from 7 days ago, the math is still quite low for both ICU, hospitalization, and death. These numbers suggest that a LOT of people in the USA and elsewhere in the world have had it, recovered, and never known. 

We increased our testing yesterday, switching from testing only people with symptoms who had ALSO been in contact with positive cases TO testing anyone with symptoms. So we will know in a couple of days more about community spread. Our current positive testing rate is 3%, and that is testing those with symptoms and contacts. The stated government plan is still complete eradication and border control.

 

 

Edited April 2, 2020 by lewelma

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

 

I'm praying hard for Ecuador. The first sponsored child who mentioned coronavirus in a letter to me (written at the end of January) lives in Guayaquil. I also have a 5 year old in Quito and a few more kids in Ecuador -- I hope the jungles at least are safe but when I saw people fled there I'm really worried.

Oh wow.  That does sounds scary.  Hope they all get through ok.

[Ausmumof3]

Here (my state) we have 385 and 19 hospitalised, 14 icu, 7 critical.  We are testing more widely than many but still not everyone.  Criteria is overseas travel, known contact with a case or severe unidentifiable respiratory symptoms.

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

Forget toilet paper, you can't buy chickens!!

https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article241651336.html

Yep.  My dd was selling some and we had the most ridiculous number of calls. 

[Carrie12345]

13 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

I think that it is shameful to deny medical help to American citizens because they traveled, if the US government wasn't issuing a travel restriction or banning travel. Especially if the US government was downplaying the severity. You can't tell people it is okay to travel, then when they do say, "sorry, you should have known better, feel free to die now". Our own citizens? On this very board I recall people around that time saying they would still cruise, and had hoped there would be deals offered they could snatch up. 

I mean, yes, it was not smart. But we have a LOT of not smart citizens, lol. We generally still treat them when sick. 

There has been SO much misinformation put out there about this virus, I can't truly blame people for underestimating it 3 weeks ago. Heck, even Dr Fauci said something just recently about how we are getting "an inkling" that this may be spread by asymptomatic people, not just coughs/sneezes. Um, hello? The boardies here have known that for WEEKS but he's just saying, "well, maybe" now? No wonder people made poor decisions, given such wishy washy advice!

I’m a couple of pages behind, so someone else may have already shared similar thoughts, but I don’t want to loose my place, lol. 

There’s no real denying economic motivation for politicians lying and having scientists... let’s say sidestepping certain degrees of details. I don’t believe any of the top scientists involved are personally motivated by the economics, but do get pressured for it.

The other aspect is kind of tied into panic, which we’ve all talked about for weeks. Most of us who saw this what feels like ages ago did wish there were 100% transparency, but also acknowledged that it would have risked crippling panic. In addition to that panic, we still would have had people who did not believe it. Maybe more, considering some thoughts that were shared about the concept and definition of panic!

Instead, what we got was some people preparing in January, more in February, dare I say much more in March, plus a little bit of panic, and then some people who still did not believe it. Despite my desire to have all of the info up front, that was certainly a better outcome than all-out panic, and more important than my individual emotions and stance on hypothetical ethics at the time.  During this time, it looks to me like a lot of (not all) disbelievers have gradually digested reality, which they very well may not have otherwise.  And that means more compliance.  Not perfect, but more.

I do think that there’s been a sort of frog in the pot strategy going on, and that it’s working on the general public. In many (most?) areas, people have slowly been acclimating to concepts we all would have fought against if the switch was flipped all at once in February.  And, I suspect, we’ll continue to if/when more heat gets applied.

The horrible part is that essential services weren’t given the info or tools to handle what was known or suspected, and the systems that were designed to mitigate that issue have failed miserably. My full thoughts on that get too political for this forum, but it needs to be known that the US absolutely has had SOPs in place for this, at the federal, state, county, tribal, and local levels. They exist.  Humans decided to ignore them pre-disaster and throw them away mid-disaster. The citizenship deserves to know that!

Had SOPs been followed and the general public slowly steeped, we still would have lost people, sadly. But it wouldn’t have to be to the extent that we’re about to. There was never any chance of saying *everyone, especially people who chose to believe they were invincible and didn’t have to heed even the simplest of warnings. But more people will die because of gov’t non-compliance than individual ignorance.

[Carrie12345]

Like doctors and nurses, EMT training (locally, at least) is being modified to get students certified.  My 17yo is resenting my 16yo a bit right now!  Even though the younger will get certified, she’s still unable to be employed until she turns 18 next year.  But the older turns 18 in less than 2 months, and I know she’s going to be raring to go! I’m trying to wait until the end of this month before sitting down and having real conversations about that.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, lewelma said:

Here in NZ, the numbers are 723 cases, 2 in ICU, 14 more in hospital, and one death.  A good half of the 723 cases are from the past 7 days, so they may still end up in ICU. But it seems that we are testing way way more than most countries, and we are just not seeing any where close to those types of percentages here. Even if you go with only 300 cases from 7 days ago, the math is still quite low for both ICU, hospitalization, and death. These numbers suggest that a LOT of people in the USA and elsewhere in the world have had it, recovered, and never known. 

We increased our testing yesterday, switching from testing only people with symptoms who had ALSO been in contact with positive cases TO testing anyone with symptoms. So we will know in a couple of days more about community spread. Our current positive testing rate is 3%, and that is testing those with symptoms and contacts. The stated government plan is still complete eradication and border control.

 

 

 

Those are good. I feel very hopeful that NZ can eradicate, not just mitigate.

South Korea actually does have the 3% rate I would like to be seeing the global rate headed towards.

I am concerned that the global rate rising has to do with Spain, Italy, France, Philippines etc high numbers of deaths per population. And that at least for some places as much as total cases and thus recoveries are under reported, so too are deaths under reported as people are dying at home. 

I guess my other concern is that CFR projections were based on China data and China data is suspect.

I am hopeful that something like hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin will bring down deaths. 

However, absent a great treatment rapidly getting deployed,  the graphs and playing around with numbers on my own are looking more like maybe a ~ 10-15% CFR .   

Edited April 2, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

12 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

Like doctors and nurses, EMT training (locally, at least) is being modified to get students certified.  My 17yo is resenting my 16yo a bit right now!  Even though the younger will get certified, she’s still unable to be employed until she turns 18 next year.  But the older turns 18 in less than 2 months, and I know she’s going to be raring to go! I’m trying to wait until the end of this month before sitting down and having real conversations about that.

 

That sounds scary as a mom.

Especially as more deaths in teens are emerging. 

ETA: what training gets skipped to speed certification?

Edited April 2, 2020 by Pen

[Carrie12345]

1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

That sounds scary as a mom.

Especially as more deaths in teens are emerging. 

Definitely. Knowing that their risk-gauging isn’t fully developed is the really hard part.
They’ve been going out and doing dangerous emergency service stuff since they were 14, but I’ve always been very confident in their training and their team.  This is so much different to me.

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html?__twitter_impression=true
 

has this been posted yet?

Iceland have tested 5pc of the population. Less than 1 percent of tests came back positive . But of those that came back positive half were asymptomatic.

[Pen]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Where are you getting a number that high?

Personally, I think it’s in the low single digits, but the excess deaths will be much higher...

 

I’m following (mostly) upward trajectory graphs after elimination of China where I don’t believe the statistics:

 

[Pen]

Ourworldindata.info

For above graphs

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’m a couple of pages behind, so someone else may have already shared similar thoughts, but I don’t want to loose my place, lol. 

There’s no real denying economic motivation for politicians lying and having scientists... let’s say sidestepping certain degrees of details. I don’t believe any of the top scientists involved are personally motivated by the economics, but do get pressured for it.

The other aspect is kind of tied into panic, which we’ve all talked about for weeks. Most of us who saw this what feels like ages ago did wish there were 100% transparency, but also acknowledged that it would have risked crippling panic. In addition to that panic, we still would have had people who did not believe it. Maybe more, considering some thoughts that were shared about the concept and definition of panic!

Instead, what we got was some people preparing in January, more in February, dare I say much more in March, plus a little bit of panic, and then some people who still did not believe it. Despite my desire to have all of the info up front, that was certainly a better outcome than all-out panic, and more important than my individual emotions and stance on hypothetical ethics at the time.  During this time, it looks to me like a lot of (not all) disbelievers have gradually digested reality, which they very well may not have otherwise.  And that means more compliance.  Not perfect, but more.

I do think that there’s been a sort of frog in the pot strategy going on, and that it’s working on the general public. In many (most?) areas, people have slowly been acclimating to concepts we all would have fought against if the switch was flipped all at once in February.  And, I suspect, we’ll continue to if/when more heat gets applied.

The horrible part is that essential services weren’t given the info or tools to handle what was known or suspected, and the systems that were designed to mitigate that issue have failed miserably. My full thoughts on that get too political for this forum, but it needs to be known that the US absolutely has had SOPs in place for this, at the federal, state, county, tribal, and local levels. They exist.  Humans decided to ignore them pre-disaster and throw them away mid-disaster. The citizenship deserves to know that!

Had SOPs been followed and the general public slowly steeped, we still would have lost people, sadly. But it wouldn’t have to be to the extent that we’re about to. There was never any chance of saying *everyone, especially people who chose to believe they were invincible and didn’t have to heed even the simplest of warnings. But more people will die because of gov’t non-compliance than individual ignorance.

I think it’s probably much harder to get the right balance for communication now.  In pre social media days the public could probably be not panicked while emergency services figure out and plan stuff.  Now the general public often have info ahead of official sources.  They don’t necessarily want to release wrong information so they take their time and verify but in the meantime everyone now already knows it and they seem behind.

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

South Korea’s numbers aren’t that large, and lots of countries are only testing the sickest people. I really wouldn’t use those estimates.

I keep wondering why people think the official CFR will go down.  I mean I think the cfr is probably lower than it looks in say Italy because maybe only the sickest are getting tested.  But presumably although a who had a mild case, didn’t get tested and recovered will never get tested so will never count on the official stats.  The only thing that could maybe change that is serology testing and including people with antibodies in the data.  Or maybe if there’s a continued outbreak and increased testing?  But if the number of new cases is going down, people from previously confirmed cases are still dying it’s just going to keep going up on paper right?

[Pen]

Lancet on mortality- gives current rate  (few days back) outside China at ~ 15.2%.  Expected to level off to ~ 5.7%

 

[TracyP]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

Those are good. I feel very hopeful that NZ can eradicate, not just mitigate.

South Korea actually does have the 3% rate I would like to be seeing the global rate headed towards.

I am concerned that the global rate rising has to do with Spain, Italy, France, Philippines etc high numbers of deaths per population. And that at least for some places as much as total cases and thus recoveries are under reported, so too are deaths under reported as people are dying at home. 

I guess my other concern is that CFR projections were based on China data and China data is suspect.

I am hopeful that something like hydroxychloroquine plus azithromycin will bring down deaths. 

However, absent a great treatment rapidly getting deployed,  the graphs and playing around with numbers on my own are looking more like maybe a ~ 10-15% CFR .   

If it gives you any peace of mind, maybe look at the Diamond Princess. They have a CFR of 1.5% right now. Sorry to be horribly morbid, but if every patient in ICU dies, the CFR will rise to 3.6%. That is in a population where 80% of the passengers were over 60. I think that 3-4% is a worst case scenario CFR, but not 10-15%.