wuhan - coronavirus

[Janeway]

On 8/22/2022 at 6:32 AM, Faith-manor said:

Bookbard, I am so sorry to hear those numbers. I agree the numbers should be absolutely shocking and folks should be appalled! However, the apathy is amazing. The US has just over 93,000,000 cases as of last Friday, and over 1,000,000 dead. A million, and an estimated 23,000,000 with long covid! Staggering. But in my area, we are pretty much the last family we know of who actually cares. These people will keep on acting recklessly, and then when they lose a loved one to it or end up caring for someone with long covid, act dense about it as if the fact that this could happen was a total surprise/unknown. 😠😠😠

Add monkeypox, polio, and an upcoming flu season to the mix, bird flu here in Michigan and just waiting for that to mutate to people, and I am wondering about the virtues of off grid homesteading and vanlife camp lifestyle. Enjoy nature while shunning society.

1 million people means 1 in about  340 people died total over the last more than 2.5 years. No matter what we do, people will die. People do not live for infinity.  

[KSera]

3 hours ago, Janeway said:

1 million people means 1 in about  340 people died total over the last more than 2.5 years. No matter what we do, people will die. People do not live for infinity.  

We do a lot of things so that more people will live than would die without doing those things—we treat cancer and other diseases and wear seatbelts and all kinds of things that would otherwise result in many, many more people dying. With Covid, we had almost 500,000 more people die in 2020 than would have been expected without Covid and more than 500,000 extra people died in 2021. I haven’t seen 2022 numbers. Are you minimizing that with your statistics? That is a lot of extra people who died. I can’t compute a value system for which thinks that doesn’t matter.

[Ausmumof3]

We are going to move away from daily to weekly reporting in Aus. I’d hoped to be able to monitor and adjust response by changes but this will make it a bit harder I guess.

[Faith-manor]

8 hours ago, KSera said:

We do a lot of things so that more people will live than would die without doing those things—we treat cancer and other diseases and wear seatbelts and all kinds of things that would otherwise result in many, many more people dying. With Covid, we had almost 500,000 more people die in 2020 than would have been expected without Covid and more than 500,000 extra people died in 2021. I haven’t seen 2022 numbers. Are you minimizing that with your statistics? That is a lot of extra people who died. I can’t compute a value system for which thinks that doesn’t matter.

Yes this!  The callous, heartless, and merciless attitude covid deniers and their anti-do anything proponents have is so dehumanizing. And if they economy is all they care about or social program costs, then they are really just denying the costs. Many of those million lost were caregivers. It is estimated in the first year alone, 30,000 or more children in this country lost a primary care giver or after school giver because grandparents are relied upon so heavily. Millions have long covid and will have to draw disability. The feds had to hire a large number of new workers just to process applications and handle the massive influx of recipients. That is millions of workers who didn't return to work. The cost is astronomical, and well outside the boundaries of normal death rates and disability claims as well as bodies leaving the work force in any regular year. It is astounding to me how incredibly self centered this country has become.

The mentality is revolting.

[Janeway]

10 hours ago, KSera said:

We do a lot of things so that more people will live than would die without doing those things—we treat cancer and other diseases and wear seatbelts and all kinds of things that would otherwise result in many, many more people dying. With Covid, we had almost 500,000 more people die in 2020 than would have been expected without Covid and more than 500,000 extra people died in 2021. I haven’t seen 2022 numbers. Are you minimizing that with your statistics? That is a lot of extra people who died. I can’t compute a value system for which thinks that doesn’t matter.

My dad died of Covid during that time. And as sad as that is, and for me, it is horrible, I have also seen a rise in suicides and children having serious anxiety and depression. My own teen son tried to commit suicide. There is a huge and painful change with the young people over this. My take is, there are lots of statistics related to all this, and saving a half a million lives is not worth the emotional toll, the suicides, the rise in drug abuse, the increase in mental illness, etc.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Janeway

[KSera]

2 minutes ago, Janeway said:

My dad died of Covid during that time. And as sad as that is, and for me, it is horrible, I have also seen a rise in suicides and children having serious anxiety and depression. My own teen son tried to commit suicide. There is a huge and painful change with the young people over this. My take is, there are lots of statistics related to all this, and saving a half a million lives is not worth the emotional toll, the suicides, the rise in drug abuse, the increase in mental illness, etc.

I am very sorry about your dad and about your son. Dealing with mental health issues is so, so stressful. Interestingly, the actual statistics show that teen suicides dropped during the time that kids were not in school in person, and then went up again when they returned to school. There has been a lot of suggestion that "lockdown" increased numbers of teen suicides, but it actually didn't. Tyler Black is a suicidologist who has published a lot of clear data on this, for anyone interested. I can't fathom not thinking the loss of a million EXTRA people dying was a big deal, or why those lives lost are less important than the other problems you mention of drug abuse and mental illness. The emotional toll for many is directly related to the loss of loved ones and there is also a significant effect of covid causing mental illness--anxiety, depression and psychosis. So, ignoring the pandemic is never going to make the mental health problems induced by it better.

[Kassia]

@JanewayI'm so sorry about your dad and your ds.  I hope ds is doing better now.  

[ktgrok]

• Pretty sure the mental health of kids who lost a parent isn't great. Hard to say that having some restrictions was worse on mental health than losing loved ones, you know?

[bookbard]

Wow, this is just sickening: MTA spending time/money making anti-mask signs in NY of all places, where people must be utterly traumatised by loss. Who on earth thought this a good idea?

 

[Ausmumof3]

At least two exposures (masked) this weekend. It was a weekend with quite a bit of unavoidable risk anyway. I was hoping to get away with it given low numbers but someone did the maths and reckons our Reff is back up to 1 after a steady decline. My Dd ate indoors unmasked today (we all did yesterday but there was only a couple do people there). Today was a crowd. Fingers crossed we escaped.

All other states in AUS are having steady decline and we are flatlined or slightly trending up. We may be testing more, we may have less immunity. Our last wave started slightly ahead of other states too.

Edited September 11, 2022 by Ausmumof3

[Arcadia]

20 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 

All other states in AUS are having steady decline and we are flatlined or slightly trending up. We may be testing more, we may have less immunity. Our last wave started slightly ahead of other states too.

Do people have to report home test in Australia or only if they are working/studying and need a leave of absence? 
 

Like nobody is reporting where I am from if they are not working or in school. So the only somewhat reliable numbers are hospitalization numbers for all ages and case numbers for school age children due to the compulsory education act there.

[bookbard]

51 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

Like nobody is reporting where I am from if they are not working or in school. So the only somewhat reliable numbers are hospitalization numbers for all ages and case numbers for school age children due to the compulsory education act there.

Yes. I just read that they are now only counting active cases for 5 days in Australia, so therefore numbers will drop significantly. Although I guess it's just the active case numbers not the new daily numbers. But it's all up to people a) testing and b) reporting on RATs. Which I believe they still have to legally do, but how would you know?

Edited September 11, 2022 by bookbard

[Ausmumof3]

41 minutes ago, bookbard said:

Yes. I just read that they are now only counting active cases for 5 days in Australia, so therefore numbers will drop significantly. Although I guess it's just the active case numbers not the new daily numbers. But it's all up to people a) testing and b) reporting on RATs. Which I believe they still have to legally do, but how would you know?

Which by extension will drop hospitalisation counts as well as they’re only counting cases in the infectious period? 
I’m feeling slightly stuffy tonight 😬

hoping it’s just the impact of a busy weekend 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

Do people have to report home test in Australia or only if they are working/studying and need a leave of absence? 
 

Like nobody is reporting where I am from if they are not working or in school. So the only somewhat reliable numbers are hospitalization numbers for all ages and case numbers for school age children due to the compulsory education act there.

You are meant to but many people don’t, (I know on my fam a family who had it and only one reported out of six). Plus many people aren’t testing for mild cold symptoms anymore, especially if they’ve already had it.

To be really honest I feel like it’s all kind of pointless anyway as the current measures are so halfhearted they’re mostly useless.

It would be better to put time and money into ventilation than data tracking 

[Danae]

I am glad to live in a metro area that reports wastewater sampling, because I don’t think testing or reporting are happening at meaningful rates.

[Longtime Lurker]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It would be better to put time and money into ventilation than data tracking 

Yes! The data is somewhat helpful for knowing how cautious to be in one's area, but now that we have home tests the data is no longer particularly reliable. More money into ventilation would be great and would help so much!

[KSera]

1 hour ago, Danae said:

I am glad to live in a metro area that reports wastewater sampling, because I don’t think testing or reporting are happening at meaningful rates.

Yes. It’s kind of ridiculous that they’re reporting cases trending down when they know darn well only a tiny fraction of cases are being reported at this point. I have a drive through PCR site near me, and whereas it used to have long, long lines, there’s never anyone there anymore. Yet I know more people who have had Covid recently than I ever did during the era of long testing lines. I had a friend test positive on a home test who asked me how to report, and it took me a good deal of searching to even find how to report it in my state. Most people just aren’t going to look that hard (and it requires a phone call, which many people just aren’t going to do once they see that’s their only reporting option). 

[Laura Corin]

1 hour ago, KSera said:

Yes. It’s kind of ridiculous that they’re reporting cases trending down when they know darn well only a tiny fraction of cases are being reported at this point. I have a drive through PCR site near me, and whereas it used to have long, long lines, there’s never anyone there anymore. Yet I know more people who have had Covid recently than I ever did during the era of long testing lines. I had a friend test positive on a home test who asked me how to report, and it took me a good deal of searching to even find how to report it in my state. Most people just aren’t going to look that hard (and it requires a phone call, which many people just aren’t going to do once they see that’s their only reporting option). 

The only UK data that I trust are the random samples of people - healthy and not - taken by the ONS - https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/latest

This used to be collection on the doorstep. It's by post now, but they claim it is still reliable. 

[bookbard]

Oh, I didn't expect this: First multi-strain COVID-19 vaccine approved for use in Australia after government backs Moderna shot - ABC News

I assume it's the same way you guys have been talking about for the US? 

 

[Ausmumof3]

And yet another confirmed exposure on the weekend. I’m almost getting the feeling we must be having another one wave start already given the number of cases anecdotally 

[wathe]

My beloved Ontario Science Table has been decommissioned.  

Its function is to be incorporated into Public Health Ontario.

Not Good.  OST was independent from government.  OST had the best data dashboard.  Published provincial wastewater, and in an easy to read graphic format.  Published covid rates by vax status per million population. Both really useful data.  OST published clinical briefs and guidelines that were user-friendly and made sense to clinicians.   PHO does none of these things.

I really think that it's a political move.  The Covid Is Over strategy/fiction is easier to sell if the public doesn't have access to useful metrics.

 

[Corraleno]

3 hours ago, bookbard said:

Oh, I didn't expect this: First multi-strain COVID-19 vaccine approved for use in Australia after government backs Moderna shot - ABC News

I assume it's the same way you guys have been talking about for the US? 

 

That's the version that was approved for the UK, with the BA1 strain. The US version has the BA5 strain.

[KSera]

2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

That's the version that was approved for the UK, with the BA1 strain. The US version has the BA5 strain.

Between the UK, Canada, and now Australia using BA.1 and US using BA.5, we should at least end up with some interesting data on how much difference there is between the two approaches. I hope both offer a good improvement in protection. 

[wathe]

1 hour ago, KSera said:

Between the UK, Canada, and now Australia using BA.1 and US using BA.5, we should at least end up with some interesting data on how much difference there is between the two approaches. I hope both offer a good improvement in protection. 

I'm prediction a lot of cross-border vaccine shopping.  For those with the resources.  

ETA the BA5 bivalent vaccine is perceived as better/more valuable here because it contains a more recent variant.  

Edited September 12, 2022 by wathe

[bookbard]

7 hours ago, Corraleno said:

That's the version that was approved for the UK, with the BA1 strain. The US version has the BA5 strain.

hmm, wonder what the point is then? 

[kokotg]

1 minute ago, bookbard said:

hmm, wonder what the point is then? 

I've read that it was a trade off between more complete data/human trials with the BA1 version vs. better match with newer strains (we hope) with the BA5. 

[wathe]

1 hour ago, kokotg said:

I've read that it was a trade off between more complete data/human trials with the BA1 version vs. better match with newer strains (we hope) with the BA5. 

That matches my understanding:  

US is taking a flu vaccine approach - the base vaccine is already approved and is then adjusted to match the most current strain, and released without much/any human data on each new strain-specific version.  Nimble approach with a reasonable trade-off on safety.

Canada is treating the bivalent vaccine more like a whole new vaccine, and requiring more human data.  Thus, the strains in the Canadian version are necessarily older, because getting that data takes time.  Slow approach that risks the vaccine being obsolete before it's ever released, trade-off being better safety data (probably marginal).

Newspaper article explains

Either approach is a gamble.  We'll see how it turns out soon enough.

[bookbard]

44 minutes ago, wathe said:

Either approach is a gamble.  We'll see how it turns out soon enough.

I'm hanging out for something that actually works - I've read of some promising studies. I'm happy to isolate as much as I can if I know there's some sort of hope on the horizon. 

[kbutton]

https://www.nber.org/papers/w30435?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Quote

We show that Covid-19 illnesses persistently reduce labor supply. Using an event study, we estimate that workers with week-long Covid-19 work absences are 7 percentage points less likely to be in the labor force one year later compared to otherwise-similar workers who do not miss a week of work for health reasons. Our estimates suggest Covid-19 illnesses have reduced the U.S. labor force by approximately 500,000 people (0.2 percent of adults) and imply an average forgone earnings per Covid-19 absence of at least $9,000, about 90 percent of which reflects lost labor supply beyond the initial absence week.

 

[bookbard]

10 hours ago, kbutton said:

We show that Covid-19 illnesses persistently reduce labor supply

Yes. Sadly, our current govt approach is to increase migration. That to me is a quick fix - because they, too, will get sick. You can't just hope to import new workers every time you ruin the last lot.

Improving air quality and requiring masks would lower the rate of covid and thereby long covid. But it's not happening.

Chatted to an older lady today, she hasn't had covid yet - apparently it's because she always sanitises her hands when she goes places. The whole masks are more important than washing hands just hasn't sunk in. 

[Ting Tang]

They want to ignore Covid away. 

[bookbard]

Read about an interesting research study looking at vaccination rates in US counties. Basically people who emphasise physical and spiritual purity were less likely to be vaccinated. The researchers suggest that the feeling that they're introducing some foreign chemical into their body goes against their moral values - an interesting insight.

Lots of headlines that WHO says covid is basically over. Which, when you read exactly what was said, isn't what they were saying at all. 

[ktgrok]

On 9/14/2022 at 12:36 AM, bookbard said:

Yes. Sadly, our current govt approach is to increase migration. That to me is a quick fix - because they, too, will get sick. You can't just hope to import new workers every time you ruin the last lot.

 

pretty sure that was the whole basis of the trans atlantic slave trade..ugh. 

[bookbard]

3 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

pretty sure that was the whole basis of the trans atlantic slave trade..ugh. 

And the 'blackbirding' in Australia, too - importing workers from the pacific islands when the Aboriginal people wouldn't work for them (ie slave for basic rations). Australia still has a pacific islander program, bringing in workers seasonally to pick fruit at low rates - but they don't get free health care - it's criminal.

Did you see that they're calling long Covid 'the new pandemic'? That seems crazy to me. It's Covid, just not in the acute phase. The initial phase of AIDS is a mild fever too - the rest of it takes years.

 

 

[whitestavern]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/09/16/1122650502/scientists-debate-how-lethal-covid-is-some-say-its-now-less-risky-than-flu

[ktgrok]

19 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2022/09/16/1122650502/scientists-debate-how-lethal-covid-is-some-say-its-now-less-risky-than-flu

Yeah, the guy saying that also claims that only people with severe covid infections, back in the beginning of the pandemic, get long covid. Which we know is NOT true - plenty of people with more mild cases end up with long Covid. Which makes me question his entire thought process - he's obviously wrong on that count, so not sure I trust anything he's saying. 

Edited September 17, 2022 by ktgrok

[Happy2BaMom]

Ugh.

Just today met a young woman (31) at a neighborhood event.

She contracted Covid in August, 2021. She never was sick enough to be in the hospital and never had any serious breathing problems. However, she did have six MONTHS of nearly non-stop fevers, along with a host of rising/disappearing bizarre debilitating systems, including a not-infrequent resting heart rate of 95+, and other things that landed her several times in the ER.

While she is better now, she still has some debilitating symptoms, and has difficulty keeping a job, despite wanting to work (she's also a single mom to a 7-yo daughter, and was previously a FT PE teacher & coach).

And people like her are completely ignored by the "oh, it's just the flu" crowd.

[Laura Corin]

2 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

Ugh.

Just today met a young woman (31) at a neighborhood event.

She contracted Covid in August, 2021. She never was sick enough to be in the hospital and never had any serious breathing problems. However, she did have six MONTHS of nearly non-stop fevers, along with a host of rising/disappearing bizarre debilitating systems, including a not-infrequent resting heart rate of 95+, and other things that landed her several times in the ER.

While she is better now, she still has some debilitating symptoms, and has difficulty keeping a job, despite wanting to work (she's also a single mom to a 7-yo daughter, and was previously a FT PE teacher & coach).

And people like her are completely ignored by the "oh, it's just the flu" crowd.

Yes. My brother has had Long Covid for over a year, having contracted - probably - Delta.  He was double-vaccinated and did not need medical treatment for the initial infection.  Many weeks he just spent in bed with LC, and he had serious liver damage.

[KSera]

3 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Yeah, the guy saying that also claims that only people with severe covid infections, back in the beginning of the pandemic, get long covid. Which we know is NOT true - plenty of people with more mild cases end up with long Covid. Which makes me question his entire thought process - he's obviously wrong on that count, so not sure I trust anything he's saying. 

Monica Ghandi went Covid-minimizer pretty early on and from what I’ve seen, her opinions are not generally respected by her colleagues. She was an “urgency of normal” person. Disappointing that npr went to her for a quote. 

 

[bookbard]

2 hours ago, KSera said:

Monica Ghandi went Covid-minimizer pretty early on

Thanks for posting that link - I was really impressed at the journalism there, researching what she'd actually said in the past and what actually happened, and holding her to it. She actually apologised and said she wouldn't make sweeping statements again. I really wish journos would do that in Australia with all the minimisers we have. 

[Ausmumof3]

 

This thread in immune escape variants on the horizon is worth a read. I’m not familiar with the author but was shared by an Aus virologist that usually has reasonable information.

[bookbard]

Good overview of something we've discussed here before: covid wrecking immunity to other diseases. This article is more nuanced!

I've had COVID and am constantly getting colds. Did COVID harm my immune system? Am I now at risk of other infectious diseases? (theconversation.com)

[Mom_to3]

Biden declares the covid pandemic over on 60 minutes. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/18/joe-biden-pandemic-60-minutes-00057423?wdqwd

I guess that means we don't have to worry about B 2.75.2...

[SHP]

4 minutes ago, Mom_to3 said:

Biden declares the covid pandemic over on 60 minutes. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/18/joe-biden-pandemic-60-minutes-00057423?wdqwd

I guess that means we don't have to worry about B 2.75.2...

😒😡🤬😤

[Ausmumof3]

8 hours ago, bookbard said:

Good overview of something we've discussed here before: covid wrecking immunity to other diseases. This article is more nuanced!

I've had COVID and am constantly getting colds. Did COVID harm my immune system? Am I now at risk of other infectious diseases? (theconversation.com)

ABC also had this today. It’s interesting seeing this finally hit more mainstream media a bit. I kind of hope long term it’s wrong because I know so few people that haven’t had covid yet and I hate to think of them all having some level of long term immune issues. Plus I’m sure we won’t avoid it forever. Maybe it will be somewhat of a temporary effect if it’s a thing and next year will be better.

[bookbard]

16 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Maybe it will be somewhat of a temporary effect if it’s a thing and next year will be better.

What I understood from the article is that the cells get exhausted so can't fight off new stuff. So it did sound like it may be temporary.

I have no doubt that it's true - it explains the massive increase in things like RSV, rhinovirus, other viruses that they're seeing - explains the liver thing (not just covid, but unable to fight off something due to covid), and it definitely explains what I'm seeing in kids locally, getting sick with everything after covid - conjunctivitis, tonsellitis, flu, cold viruses.

And again it stokes my anger against the govt/big business people who have let this happen to an entire generation of kids.

[Faith-manor]

2 hours ago, bookbard said:

What I understood from the article is that the cells get exhausted so can't fight off new stuff. So it did sound like it may be temporary.

I have no doubt that it's true - it explains the massive increase in things like RSV, rhinovirus, other viruses that they're seeing - explains the liver thing (not just covid, but unable to fight off something due to covid), and it definitely explains what I'm seeing in kids locally, getting sick with everything after covid - conjunctivitis, tonsellitis, flu, cold viruses.

And again it stokes my anger against the govt/big business people who have let this happen to an entire generation of kids.

Agreed. Here it seems like the kids have all had measles. My mom re!embers when her fifth grade class came down with measles. She said for two years, she and her classmates were constantly sick with everything under the sun. No immunity at all, and this is the same phenomenon being reported by local teachers who are willing to speak up against the covid is no big deal people. Tons and tons of absences the past year and half from kids who had covid.

[Dmmetler]

I am hearing a ton of sniffling kids. Their parents are quick to reassure me that “we did a swab, and it’s not COVID”. I’m just glad they’re mostly willing to go get a mask and that I’ve never stopped masking, so hopefully I have some protection. 
 

 

[bookbard]

The oldest man in Australia, who was living on his own till the end of last year, has died of covid at the age of 110. 😞

 

[Spryte]

8 hours ago, bookbard said:

The oldest man in Australia, who was living on his own till the end of last year, has died of covid at the age of 110. 😞

 

Oh no. Is this the man who knitted the adorable sweaters for injured penguins? 

So sad to hear this.