wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, bookbard said:

I thought it was linked to wild Oktoberfest parties, but maybe there's more to it than that . . .

Oh yeah. That would make sense and be slightly reassuring I guess. 

[Danae]

On 10/13/2022 at 8:25 PM, bookbard said:

Ugh - people on local facebook group decided that 'everyone's sick at the moment' because of 'too much washing hands'. Great, let's add gastro bugs to the mix!

 

 

Well darn.  I was really hoping increased hand washing would be a permanent societal change. If it ends up rebounding to worse than pre-Covid levels that would really stink.

[regentrude]

14 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m seeing a number of Twitter accounts flagging Germany’s hospitalisation increase right now. Does anyone have any context for that? Are there any restrictions left? Is it driven by behaviour or a more evasive variant? 

It's the fall. People spending more time indoors. There are very few restrictions.  This is exactly what was to be expected.

[regentrude]

14 hours ago, bookbard said:

I thought it was linked to wild Oktoberfest parties, but maybe there's more to it than that . . .

No. Oktoberfest is a Bavarian thing and not universal German.

In my home state which is NOT Bavaria, , ICU utilization by Covid patients is 67% of available beds.

[kbutton]

2 hours ago, Danae said:

Well darn.  I was really hoping increased hand washing would be a permanent societal change. If it ends up rebounding to worse than pre-Covid levels that would really stink.

Why can't people understand...play in the dirt (good germs) and then still wash your hands (especially if you're blowing your nose or wiping your bum). SMH. 

[Ting Tang]

I live in Illinois, and the governor just lifted the testing requirement for non-vaccinated medical professionals (ok) but also the masking requirement for medical facilities unless we are in an area of high transmission.  Of course, there is a lag in determining low-to-moderate-to high transmission.  Our county lost two people to Covid last week, with ages in the 30s and 50s. 

Having watched a woman in her 70s undergo pancreatic cancer treatment during a pandemic, I cannot figure out for the life of me why we would lift mask requirements in medical facilities with medically frail people.  

Actually, now it seems odd to me we didn't mask in medical or dental facilities before the pandemic.

 

[kbutton]

2 hours ago, Ting Tang said:

I live in Illinois, and the governor just lifted the testing requirement for non-vaccinated medical professionals (ok) but also the masking requirement for medical facilities unless we are in an area of high transmission.  Of course, there is a lag in determining low-to-moderate-to high transmission.  Our county lost two people to Covid last week, with ages in the 30s and 50s. 

Having watched a woman in her 70s undergo pancreatic cancer treatment during a pandemic, I cannot figure out for the life of me why we would lift mask requirements in medical facilities with medically frail people.  

Actually, now it seems odd to me we didn't mask in medical or dental facilities before the pandemic.

 

I agree.

DH's facility has lowered the masking requirements in his facility. He's not a nurse, so he gets no breaks or lunch time (some shifts are 11 or 12 hours), so he can't go to the car or outside to eat. He basically has to eat when he can fit it in, and that means he sometimes has to eat around other unmasked HCWs. 

The other facilities near us seem to be holding firm, but I don't know for how long. Masking needs to become a universal precaution like gloving. 

I can't describe how pissed I am that if we get this with all the care we take, it's highly likely to be that we catch it from a HCW, especially as DH has been careful so that he can help protect the health system from crumbling at times that cases get high. (Our only other exposure is DS eating at school.)

[Ting Tang]

2 hours ago, kbutton said:

I agree.

DH's facility has lowered the masking requirements in his facility. He's not a nurse, so he gets no breaks or lunch time (some shifts are 11 or 12 hours), so he can't go to the car or outside to eat. He basically has to eat when he can fit it in, and that means he sometimes has to eat around other unmasked HCWs. 

The other facilities near us seem to be holding firm, but I don't know for how long. Masking needs to become a universal precaution like gloving. 

I can't describe how pissed I am that if we get this with all the care we take, it's highly likely to be that we catch it from a HCW, especially as DH has been careful so that he can help protect the health system from crumbling at times that cases get high. (Our only other exposure is DS eating at school.)

I am so sorry.  Safety should be of the utmost importance.  It makes zero sense to me.  I actually felt somewhat safer going to these places knowing masking was required.  That is no more.  I feel like everyone in charge is failing us, and I cannot figure out why.  

 

[bookbard]

So two reports came out in Australia recently.

One was an 'independent' review of how the government managed the overall Covid crisis. It's independent in that the people on the committee weren't from either political party, but it didn't include medical people, and in fact seemed to have a business emphasis, with a recommendation that future pandemics be managed with member of the business community. So . . . not sure about it.

Anyway, some of it I agreed with, some of it I didn't. They emphasised that people from disadvantaged backgrounds were far more affected than the wealthy - absolutely - and that the government favoured big business over casual workers - yes. On the other hand, they decided that 'because there's not major spread of covid in schools, schools should not have been closed'. That says to me that they're not able to understand the medical side - or don't have kids - because there has been major spread in schools, leading to deaths of teachers and long covid in kids. Report into COVID-19 response asserts 'mistakes were made' - ABC News

The other report looked at death outcomes in 2021. For those outside Australia, due to lockdowns and border closures, Covid did not truly hit the community until the end of 2021. So 2021 had lower deaths than should be expected, especially flu (5 deaths) and covid (1,000 deaths), and lower deaths from other things like car accidents. Alcohol was a major cause of death (sadly I doubt this finding will change laws around alcohol advertising). Low death rate, almost no flu but more alcohol-induced deaths in 2021 | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au)

It's going to be very sad to compare 2021 and 2022. Not only has there been over 12,000 covid deaths just in 2022, but other deaths from heart attacks, strokes etc have increased. 

In other news, I read that the states are considering stopping PCR testing for covid. So there will be a point where there's just no real data about covid numbers. And eventually the 'excess death' thing will cease to have meaning - because what will they be comparing it to?

[bookbard]

I will add this. A review that is independent of the politicians is the first step. But it needs more than that; experts who actually understand different areas of society. There's no point me running an independent review of the trucking industry, unless I also include experts from that industry - and not just that industry, but other industries who are affected by it. In short, you need expertise, both lived experience and the training and education to analyse data and make connections. Otherwise, it's about as useful as a media commentator having an opinion on a topic.

The more that expertise is devalued, the less useful information we gain. We cannot manage another pandemic based on opinions. Data will show whether covid spread in schools or not, not an opinion. 

[wathe]

12 hours ago, bookbard said:

On the other hand, they decided that 'because there's not major spread of covid in schools, schools should not have been closed'. That says to me that they're not able to understand the medical side - or don't have kids - because there has been major spread in schools, leading to deaths of teachers and long covid in kids.

 

Yeah, I also call bull on denial of spread in schools.  If you don't look for it, of course you won't find it.

Recent study on spread in schools: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/irv.13049

"Results

From the analysis of 152 clear infection episodes and 584 exposure events identified by epidemiological investigations, we estimated that approximately 50%, 21%, and 29% of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was associated with household, school, and community contacts, respectively. We found substantial transmission heterogeneities, with 20% positive individuals causing 75% to 80% of ascertained infection episodes. A higher proportion of infected individuals causing onward transmission was found among students (46.2% vs. 25%, on average), who also caused a markedly higher number of secondary cases (mean: 1.03 vs. 0.35). By reconstructing likely transmission chains from the entire set of exposures identified during contact-tracing operations, we found that clusters originated from students or school personnel were associated with a larger average cluster size (3.32 vs. 1.15) and a larger average number of generations in the transmission chain (1.56 vs. 1.17).

Conclusions

Uncontrolled SARS-CoV-2 transmission at school could disrupt the regular conduct of teaching activities, likely seeding the transmission into other settings, and increasing the burden on contact-tracing operations."     

Bolding mine.

 

[bookbard]

41 minutes ago, wathe said:

Yeah, I also call bull on denial of spread in schools.  If you don't look for it, of course you won't find it.

 

Absolutely. What annoys me too is that schools weren't closed. They were open to kids of essential workers, kids of families who weren't coping, and kids with special needs. There was a major outbreak in our area from a school who was open to essential workers, which spread from a nursing home worker, to his son, to all 9 kids in the class, and then on to their grandparents, one of whom almost died. 

[kbutton]

US-based petition to the CDC complaining about removing the requirement for masks in healthcare settings.

https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/require-masking-in-all-healthcare-settings?source=direct_link&

Quote

Just in time for flu season, with 300-400 US residents dying from COVID-19 daily, the CDC revised its infection control guidelines regarding mask-wearing in healthcare settings, from hospitals and clinics to home care providers and nursing homes. The new guideline recommended masks only need to be worn in healthcare settings when COVID Community Transmission rates are high, based on the CDC map.

This change is dangerous, unethical and based on flawed data.

Sign our petition to: President Joe Biden, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, and White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Ashish Jha

It says more good stuff, but that's the gist.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, wathe said:

Yeah, I also call bull on denial of spread in schools.  If you don't look for it, of course you won't find it.

Recent study on spread in schools: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/irv.13049

"Results

From the analysis of 152 clear infection episodes and 584 exposure events identified by epidemiological investigations, we estimated that approximately 50%, 21%, and 29% of SARS-CoV-2 transmission was associated with household, school, and community contacts, respectively. We found substantial transmission heterogeneities, with 20% positive individuals causing 75% to 80% of ascertained infection episodes. A higher proportion of infected individuals causing onward transmission was found among students (46.2% vs. 25%, on average), who also caused a markedly higher number of secondary cases (mean: 1.03 vs. 0.35). By reconstructing likely transmission chains from the entire set of exposures identified during contact-tracing operations, we found that clusters originated from students or school personnel were associated with a larger average cluster size (3.32 vs. 1.15) and a larger average number of generations in the transmission chain (1.56 vs. 1.17).

Conclusions

Uncontrolled SARS-CoV-2 transmission at school could disrupt the regular conduct of teaching activities, likely seeding the transmission into other settings, and increasing the burden on contact-tracing operations."     

Bolding mine.

 

any parent/teacher knows it’s rubbish without a scientific study tbh. It’s stuff like this that undermines faith in science/public health. Pretty much the entire Y3 class where I tutor went down the first term back with borders open.

I believe there’s even documentation from Sweden indicating that they hoped spread in schools would help speed herd immunity. Although I can’t remember where I saw that now.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/content/short/2022.10.18.512756v1
 

There is a new preprint out purporting to support the lab leak theory. I don’t have time or mental energy for it today but hope to read it later. Just sharing in case anyone else is interested.

[Ausmumof3]

On the variant front the BQ one is apparently looking like taking over in France. Hospitalisations are heading up faster than cases in some countries in Europe which is a worry. It may reflect lack of testing, in hospital spread or a more harmful variant, or possibly more spread in vulnerable population.

[bookbard]

25 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There is a new preprint out purporting to support the lab leak theory. I don’t have time or mental energy for it today but hope to read it later. Just sharing in case anyone else is interested.

So apparently Raina McIntyre supports the lab leak theory. She is a field epidemiologist in Australia who seems to be respected by people who actually believe in Covid. So that has made me think twice.

[Corraleno]

18 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.biorxiv.org/lookup/content/short/2022.10.18.512756v1
 

There is a new preprint out purporting to support the lab leak theory. I don’t have time or mental energy for it today but hope to read it later. Just sharing in case anyone else is interested.

Most of that article is totally over my head, but they seem to be arguing that covid is statistically more likely to have been engineered than to have evolved in animals, because "The BsaI/BsmBI restriction map of SARS-CoV-2 is an outlier in the bottom 1% of longest fragment lengths of non-engineered CoVs, and it is consistent with observations from previously published coronavirus infectious clones." 

However, the fact that the fragment length in SARS-CoV-2 is consistent with the "bottom 1% of non-engineered CoVs" suggests there are in fact some wild coronaviruses that fit that pattern. Also, in the conclusion they refer to the claim that "the furin cleavage site (FCS) found in SARS-CoV-2 is missing from all other known sarbecoviruses" — this was debunked when it was first floated a year or so ago when Nobel Laureate David Baltimore claimed the furin cleavage site mutation was the “smoking gun” (his words) that proved it was manufactured (which of course got blasted all over social media and certain "news" stations as proof of a lab leak). But that claim was quickly refuted by other scientists who pointed out that not only did that mutation exist in a few other bat coronaviruses, there's even an intermediate form that showed the mutation wasn't just a sudden big transformation but had an intermediate step, and it had happened multiple times, independently, in the wild. So the fact they are still making that claim about the furin cleavage site makes me suspicious of the rest of the article.

There is some pretty solid evidence from the wet market for the presence of wild SARS-CoV-2 virus on cages that held raccoon dogs, which I think are currently the leading contender for the intermediate step between bats and humans. And mapping the spread of covid from the wet market does show more infections earlier and closer to that part of the market. One of the arguments against the lab leak is that the Wuhan lab would have had to have access to virus from the intermediate host, not just to generic bat viruses, because the virus they found in the market is closer to the human version. Of course, it's theoretically possible that it spread from the lab to people, who then transmitted it to wild raccoon dogs in the market, which developed their own mutations and then passed it back to people. 

So far the arguments for the lab origin seem to be purely statistical — SARS-CoV-2 tends to "look" more like the engineered versions of coronaviruses than the "typical" wild type, although there are some outliers in the wild that have similar patterns and mutations. And the arguments for an animal origin have a genetically similar virus in an intermediate host in the wet market near the origin of the spread, but no direct evidence. I don't know that we'll ever have an answer unless someone from the Wuhan lab were to come forward and admit it was engineered, which seems unlikely.

[bookbard]

4 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I don't know that we'll ever have an answer unless someone from the Wuhan lab were to come forward and admit it was engineered, which seems unlikely.

Yes, I've seen a few criticisms of the paper - it's beyond my ability, but I agree it's unlikely we'll ever know the truth. But two things are important, either way - encroaching into wild nature means an increase in zoonotic viruses, which isn't good, and scientific hubris (which we are seeing from covid minimisers) is incredibly dangerous, and could possibly lead to lab escapes. 

There's some work from Australian actuaries who have crunched the numbers and are seeing over 20,000 excess deaths in 2022 - in contrast to 2020 and 2021 where there were fewer deaths overall than expected. This is entirely due to the removal of all protections (masks/quarantine/isolation), which was spearheaded by the NSW govt and copied by all the others, for bizarre reasons which I just don't understand.

https://twitter.com/CrabbBrendan/status/1583580552564592641

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/10/21/rsv-children-hospital-capacity/
 

“Salazar said another theory suggests children exposed to covid-19 have weakened immune systems, even if they had asymptomatic or mild cases. Even if babies had asymptomatic or mild cases, he said it’s possible that the percentage of infection-fighting B-cells might have dropped, creating “a certain level of immunosuppression” just as they are getting hit with a viral infection.”

 

The main theory is still immunity debt, but one of the few times this theory made mainstream news.

[KSera]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/10/21/rsv-children-hospital-capacity/
 

“Salazar said another theory suggests children exposed to covid-19 have weakened immune systems, even if they had asymptomatic or mild cases. Even if babies had asymptomatic or mild cases, he said it’s possible that the percentage of infection-fighting B-cells might have dropped, creating “a certain level of immunosuppression” just as they are getting hit with a viral infection.”

 

The main theory is still immunity debt, but one of the few times this theory made mainstream news.

I wonder if there’s any way to figure out whether it’s a post Covid immune deficiency or if it’s immunity debt. This wouldn’t be the first virus to harm kids’ immune systems. It would certainly be helpful to know if it’s doing that. 

[Ausmumof3]

20 minutes ago, KSera said:

I wonder if there’s any way to figure out whether it’s a post Covid immune deficiency or if it’s immunity debt. This wouldn’t be the first virus to harm kids’ immune systems. It would certainly be helpful to know if it’s doing that. 

Yes I agree. I think maybe some kind of survey of immune cells etc but I don’t know enough to know. And of course all the anti vax people will blame that as well. Anecdotally a lot of kids seemed to get sick here in the six months after Covid19 but then it was the first year of open borders too. That effect seems to be normalising though now winter is over so fingers crossed whatever it is, it’s temporary.

[KSera]

10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes I agree. I think maybe some kind of survey of immune cells etc but I don’t know enough to know. And of course all the anti vax people will blame that as well. Anecdotally a lot of kids seemed to get sick here in the six months after Covid19 but then it was the first year of open borders too. That effect seems to be normalising though now winter is over so fingers crossed whatever it is, it’s temporary.

That’s good to hear it’s improving there. Seems the ages of the kids might offer a clue. For most kids under a year, it’s not likely to be an immunity debt issue—most are not likely to have had less exposure than babies would have in other times. So if even babies are being hospitalized at a higher rate, that would be one indication perhaps.  

[Ausmumof3]

Stats are coming in for Aus. NSW, VIC and ACT all have refs close to 1.1 now so looks like the new wave is taking off. QLD is still dropping. Other states yet to report. That’s likely against a background of reduced testing so may be slightly worse than that.

BA2.75 and BQ1 are slowly increasing as a percentage of sequences.

 

This seems positive on BQ1.1 from France in terms of hospitalisations.

[bookbard]

31 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

looks like the new wave is taking off.

I am beginning to hear "I've dodged it so far, so . . ." with the idea that they can drop precautions because they must be immune or something. 

My one friend irl who is super cautious has started to relax a bit which is a little sad. I think that now there are no further boosters on offer and no plans from the government, there seems like there's no hope on the horizon, so it's hard to hang on. 

I did read that any tourist who goes to Singapore can pay for any vaccine, including Novavax, that they want. I'm kind of tempted to get my kids some sort of booster, and myself a Novavax dose. (I mean, I don't think I'd fly to Singapore just for that. But as it's the main stopover airport, if I happened to be there, then I'd be tempted). 

[Melissa Louise]

Kids at school now with Covid. They can come if they don't have (many) symptoms. I'm surprised parents are testing, seems a bit pointless.

Given that there is no ongoing vaccine plan, I do feel quite hopeless about it. 

[bookbard]

10 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Given that there is no ongoing vaccine plan, I do feel quite hopeless about it. 

I am still hopeful there will be a scientific breakthrough which will lead to a sterilising vaccine. I mean, whoever invents that will make a lot of money, so you'd think that would be motivation enough. And my goal is to reduce the number of times I get sick, overall, by wearing a mask. This year I haven't had flu, covid, gastro or even a bad cold virus. I have had a mild cold virus once. Usually I would've caught at least one bad cold virus from the kids, so homeschooling and wearing a mask has saved me about two weeks of misery, so far. 

 

[Melissa Louise]

Just now, bookbard said:

I am still hopeful there will be a scientific breakthrough which will lead to a sterilising vaccine. I mean, whoever invents that will make a lot of money, so you'd think that would be motivation enough. And my goal is to reduce the number of times I get sick, overall, by wearing a mask. This year I haven't had flu, covid, gastro or even a bad cold virus. I have had a mild cold virus once. Usually I would've caught at least one bad cold virus from the kids, so homeschooling and wearing a mask has saved me about two weeks of misery, so far. 

 

It gets harder and harder to mask when you are the only person. It's hot, the kids can't hear as well, it costs money. 

I feel like maybe it's time to just roll the dice. Long Covid, though...that's scary. Death is fine! But a hospital stay and/or not being able to work...I really can't afford LC. 

[Arcadia]

49 minutes ago, bookbard said:

 

I did read that any tourist who goes to Singapore can pay for any vaccine, including Novavax, that they want. I'm kind of tempted to get my kids some sort of booster, and myself a Novavax dose. (I mean, I don't think I'd fly to Singapore just for that. But as it's the main stopover airport, if I happened to be there, then I'd be tempted). 

It’s true. There is a clinic at the airport itself at Changi Airport (SIN) Terminal 4.

[bookbard]

2 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Long Covid, though...that's scary.

Yeah, that's what scares me. 

[Harriet Vane]

Re long covid--YES. Exactly. It scares me to death. I already have life-long effects from an abdominal infection from several years ago. I don't want to layer on anything else. 

 

@Melissa LouiseI hear you on the masking. Very few people mask where we are. It's harder and harder to be the only one. I make myself do it both because of my fear of long covid and also because I have a pinched nerve in my neck and I simply cannot cope with illness on top of that.

[regentrude]

12 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

It gets harder and harder to mask when you are the only person. It's hot, the kids can't hear as well, it costs money. 

I feel like maybe it's time to just roll the dice. Long Covid, though...that's scary. Death is fine! But a hospital stay and/or not being able to work...I really can't afford LC. 

Yes! While I am fairly confident we'd have mild illness ( 4x vaxxed and in good health), the fact that LC is so poorly understood makes me cautious. They have no clue who gets it, and why, and what exactly is going on - nope, I will continue some level of precautions. 

Dh and I went to the theater for the first time since Covid started. Community theater, packed house because so many family members of cast. We were the only two people masking. But nobody said anything or gave dirty looks.

I still mask whenever I am with students. I have 400 students in person each week,  plenty of opportunity for contagion. Let them think I am sheep. At least, we didn't get it so far.

[Laura Corin]

3 hours ago, regentrude said:

Yes! While I am fairly confident we'd have mild illness ( 4x vaxxed and in good health), the fact that LC is so poorly understood makes me cautious. They have no clue who gets it, and why, and what exactly is going on - nope, I will continue some level of precautions. 

Dh and I went to the theater for the first time since Covid started. Community theater, packed house because so many family members of cast. We were the only two people masking. But nobody said anything or gave dirty looks.

I still mask whenever I am with students. I have 400 students in person each week,  plenty of opportunity for contagion. Let them think I am sheep. At least, we didn't get it so far.

I'm the only person masking among the staff in my department. I'm trying to reduce the number of times I get Covid and the consequent risk of Long Covid. My brother's experience does not make me relaxed about the issue.

[popmom]

Apologies if this has already been shared upthread. It’s the first really interesting article on COVID I’ve seen in a long time—from a credible source. I (((think))) Propublica is credible.  
 

https://www.propublica.org/article/senate-report-covid-19-origin-wuhan-lab

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by popmom

[KSera]

18 hours ago, popmom said:

Apologies if this has already been shared upthread. It’s the first really interesting article on COVID I’ve seen in a long time—from a credible source. I (((think))) Propublica is credible.  
 

https://www.propublica.org/article/senate-report-covid-19-origin-wuhan-lab

 

If this is a topic you’re interested in, there has been a lot of commentary from virologists. Here are a couple that provide greater scientific (and linguistic) context:

 

(Dr Rasmussen is not one of my favorites to read, but she is qualified to speak on this.)

 

The origins/lab leak stuff doesn’t happen to be an element that has great interest to me, so I haven’t read through all of it, I just keep seeing discussion of it when I’m reading about the aspects of Covid science that are relevant to me. 

[bookbard]

Just had a segment on the ABC about the new wave in Australia; cases up by 25% in Victoria (one of the most populated states). Said that if you had 4 vaccines, your chance of dying was 1/30th of those who had none, which is huge (this is Australian data). They actually said 'wear N95 masks', not just 'wear a mask' which was good. 

I haven't followed the data in Australia for a while because I can't really interpret it, things have changed so much. I assumed a new wave would start as we headed towards Christmas.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2022/10/31/covid-19-infection-linked-with-poor-cardiovascular-outcomes-and-death/?sh=f682c4579fde

Just another study showing increased cardiovascular issues post covid. It feels like no one here knows this and if I mention it they think I’m making it up. 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, bookbard said:

Just had a segment on the ABC about the new wave in Australia; cases up by 25% in Victoria (one of the most populated states). Said that if you had 4 vaccines, your chance of dying was 1/30th of those who had none, which is huge (this is Australian data). They actually said 'wear N95 masks', not just 'wear a mask' which was good. 

I haven't followed the data in Australia for a while because I can't really interpret it, things have changed so much. I assumed a new wave would start as we headed towards Christmas.

I have been checking Adrian Estermann’s stuff on Twitter each Friday as he’s posting the ref when the weekly data comes out. (He’s an epi from Adelaide). Obviously the changing testing requirements make it hard to be accurate but most eastern states have a ref above 1 for the first time since July. Our state actually went over first, I suspect because we have an older population that test more.

I doubt Melbourne Cup Day will help.

[bookbard]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I doubt Melbourne Cup Day will help.

I always forget about Melbourne Cup Day. Coming from an anti-gambling family I didn't know much about it - then when I sent my kids to preschool, they actually had a Melbourne Cup themed day - I was absolutely floored. Could not believe they'd promote an event that's basically animal cruelty plus gambling. Shows just how much it's embedded into society!

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

have been checking Adrian Estermann’s stuff on Twitter each Friday as he’s posting the ref when the weekly data comes out.

You'll have to keep me up to date, I've finally closed my Twitter account, combination of Elon Musk thing and just getting information overwhelm (doomscrolling). 

Family invited us to dinner inside RSL club next week - I will decline. They already know I'm super covid cautious so won't be offended. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

New study out from UQ today 

“Research led by The University of Queensland has found COVID-19 activates the same inflammatory response in the brain as Parkinson’s disease. 

The discovery identified a potential future risk for neurodegenerative conditions in people who’ve had COVID-19, but also a possible treatment.”

 

[Ausmumof3]

10 hours ago, bookbard said:

I always forget about Melbourne Cup Day. Coming from an anti-gambling family I didn't know much about it - then when I sent my kids to preschool, they actually had a Melbourne Cup themed day - I was absolutely floored. Could not believe they'd promote an event that's basically animal cruelty plus gambling. Shows just how much it's embedded into society!

You'll have to keep me up to date, I've finally closed my Twitter account, combination of Elon Musk thing and just getting information overwhelm (doomscrolling). 

Family invited us to dinner inside RSL club next week - I will decline. They already know I'm super covid cautious so won't be offended. 

 

Yeah I find it can be a bit of a bad habit, and many of the more reliable sources don’t post as often as they used to, there is more from the extremes. But there’s still a few worthwhile sources for me, for now. 

[KSera]

23 hours ago, bookbard said:

You'll have to keep me up to date, I've finally closed my Twitter account, combination of Elon Musk thing and just getting information overwhelm (doomscrolling). 

I don't know if this is helpful or not for you to know, but you can read without having an account; I've never had one. You can just go direct to the account you want, and that helps with not having a "feed" to doomscroll. Alas, it doesn't help the Musk problem 😉 .

[bookbard]

Headline about the new wave in Australia today.

New Covid-19 wave to hit NSW within weeks, chief health officer says | Health | The Guardian

 

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, bookbard said:

Headline about the new wave in Australia today.

New Covid-19 wave to hit NSW within weeks, chief health officer says | Health | The Guardian

 

Yep. I’m telling my people who were holding off on their fourth shot that if they want it, now is the time. Seeing anecdotal evidence of increase here already too.

[bookbard]

6 hours ago, bookbard said:

Headline about the new wave in Australia today.

New Covid-19 wave to hit NSW within weeks, chief health officer says | Health | The Guardian

 

I finally read the article, some disappointing quotes from the Vic premier, along the lines of "get over it". Can't believe how much things have changed.

Apparently 65% of adults and 64% of kids have had covid, which is a lot more than reported numbers suggest. It sounds about right to me. 

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yep. I’m telling my people who were holding off on their fourth shot that if they want it, now is the time.

Oh, you've reminded me to try to fit in things like dentist, too, before the wave really takes off.

[Ausmumof3]

Ref is around 1.13 for most states reporting so far except QLD which has just hit 1 and NT which is going down. Cases growing but only slowly. Obviously it’s hard to tell how much testing is going on. Hospitalisations and deaths are roughly stable. It’s hard to tell with hospitalisations now as they only count active cases 

[Ausmumof3]

Anecdotally I just heard of the first family I know who are on their second round - first round was January. I’ve heard of a couple of others but they were immunocompromised so hard to extrapolate 

[bookbard]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Anecdotally I just heard of the first family I know who are on their second round - first round was January. I’ve heard of a couple of others but they were immunocompromised so hard to extrapolate 

I've come across quite a few now who have had it twice; three of whom are anti-vaxxers who won't mask. Others are just in situations where they are around groups of people a lot, so they're at a higher risk.

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Ref is around 1.13 for most states reporting so far except QLD which has just hit 1 and NT which is going down.

Whenever I see the weekly death numbers I'm astonished, as we were getting twice that, daily, only two months ago. I hope it's accurate; I fear we are going to get a big data dump at some point. Or not, and it'll only appear when the excess death numbers are analysed.

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://edmonton.ctvnews.ca/more-than-12-000-students-absent-from-edmonton-schools-due-to-illness-1.6137246

 

According to an epidemiologist, the early data suggests the rise in illness could be a result of COVID-19.

"We have increasing evidence that, like measles, COVID-19 hobbles the immune system," University of Toronto's Colin Furness told CTV News Edmonton.

"It impairs the immune system, which means that after COVID is done and gone, you are more susceptible to other kinds of infections, and that very well may be a bigger problem in children. So we're seeing a lot of respiratory illness, far more than could be accumulated for in any other way."

 

I feel like that sound be accounted for? Either way, worrying.

Edited November 4, 2022 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

Hospitalisations are apparently down in UK, seems like this last wave in Europe has been smaller/shorter duration.