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Omicron anecdata?


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21 hours ago, KSera said:

The fact that the CDC and those in charge in Washington DC are still acting like anything under 15 minutes of contact with an infectious person isn’t a concern is ridiculous at this point. We all know that. It seems silly they keep using the gridiron dinner as example of how things should go going forward, yet there’s 60 some people testing positive from the event so far. Lots of them in higher risk groups.

Here we’ve decided four hours is the magic threshold! We’ve gone from being the lucky country to the stupid country 

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In March 2020 when the COVID plague first descended upon us, we all scrambled to figure out creative ways to celebrate Passover in virtual formats.

Two years in, I really have an enhanced appreciation for just how long is forty years.

Forty years living *inside* the story, not knowing how the story ends.

The backsliding and kvetching and turning-upon-each-other and loss of faith in leadership... it all seems a lot more understandable, and real, than it ever did when it was just a story.

I'd gladly take fourth inning. Fourth inning is almost halfway through. Even 2030 would be bearable -- sucky, but bearable -- if we knew that it would be The End. It's the *uncertainty* about what will happen, and when, that is so hard to bear.

Just like the Israelites.

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State of Affairs: Can we trust case numbers? (substack.com)

Evaluation (IHME) estimates that for every 100 cases in the U.S., only 6-7 are officially recorded in our surveillance systems. For example, on March 31, 2022 IMHE reported 27,400 cases but estimated 404,600 “true” cases due to underreporting and asymptomatic infection. This gap has dramatically widened over time. During the peak Delta wave, an estimated 43% of cases were reported. During Omicron, about 26% of cases were recorded. Right now, an estimated 7% of cases are reported, which is abysmally low. We are flying blind.

 

This gaping distinction is most important for the public who continue to be forced to individually navigate this pandemic. And, yes, people are still, rightfully so, trying to avoid infections (it’s not inevitable) and/or break transmission chains around the vulnerable. Unfortunately, available dashboards, like the NYT and CDC, no longer accurately reflect transmission or risk to inform behavior. Even leaders are using official case numbers to drive policy decisions, like whether masks should still be required on planes. But policy is only as good as the data it’s based on.

Take Maryland, for example. Right now they are recording 8 cases per 100,000 people. According to the new CDC guidance, they are in the green because their hospitals won’t surge in 3 weeks. So, according to the CDC, you don’t need to wear a mask. According to the old CDC guidance, Maryland has “substantial” transmission with a 7-day summation of ~56 cases per 100,000. Using this metric, people are on the cusp of needing to wear a mask. If we use IMHE’s estimates, Maryland’s “true” transmission rate is much, much higher— 800 cases per 100,000— a threshold in which you should definitely, no question, wear a mask.

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11 hours ago, Pam in CT said:

In March 2020 when the COVID plague first descended upon us, we all scrambled to figure out creative ways to celebrate Passover in virtual formats.

Two years in, I really have an enhanced appreciation for just how long is forty years.

Forty years living *inside* the story, not knowing how the story ends.

The backsliding and kvetching and turning-upon-each-other and loss of faith in leadership... it all seems a lot more understandable, and real, than it ever did when it was just a story.

I'd gladly take fourth inning. Fourth inning is almost halfway through. Even 2030 would be bearable -- sucky, but bearable -- if we knew that it would be The End. It's the *uncertainty* about what will happen, and when, that is so hard to bear.

Just like the Israelites.

Very interesting perspective. Thanks for sharing 

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U.S. renews COVID-19 public health emergency (msn.com)

 The United States on Wednesday renewed the COVID-19 public health emergency, allowing millions of Americans to keep getting free tests, vaccines and treatments for at least three more months.

The public health emergency was initially declared in January 2020, when the coronavirus pandemic began. It has been renewed each quarter since and was due to expire on April 16.

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) in a statement said it was extending the public health emergency and that it will give states 60 days notice prior to termination or expiration.

This could be the last time HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra extends it, policy experts have said.

"We've all had access to coverage and we've been able to tap into the availability of COVID-19 testing, treatments, and vaccines, largely at no cost during the public health emergency, but not all of these items will continue to be free when the public health emergency ends," said Dr. Juliette Cubanski, deputy director of the Kaiser Family Foundation's Medicare policy program.

 

CDC to extend federal transportation mask mandate for additional 15 days (msn.com)

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On 3/23/2022 at 12:30 PM, Faith-manor said:

I wonder if we couldn't have the states go to buying them for the health department and make it like other vaccines available to the public there, and practitioners and pharmacies buying them and billing insurance. I cannot imagine insurance NOT paying for them since they greatly lower the chances of racking up tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars of medical care when someone has a bad case. 

Hopefully some sort of decent, equitable system will shake out. It is in the nation's best interests to keep vaccines readily available without out of pocket expense or on some sort of sliding scale by income with copay no higher than $20 and maybe always free for kids at the health department even if other service providers are charging a co-pay. Who knows though. It is difficult for me to have much optimism about our political system.

In Alabama, we have all the kids vaccines and flu vaccines available for free.

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On 4/2/2022 at 9:02 PM, Spy Car said:

No. Both times I got full additional doses I honestly informed the pharmacist of a diagnosed medical condition, which qualified under "immunocompromised."

Of the 4 of us who got shots in rapid succession, all were full doses.

Bill

 

 

My pharmacy knows I am immunocomprised.  I had no issues at all and didn't need a doctor note.  I got my fourth in February.

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On 4/8/2022 at 9:54 PM, Mom_to3 said:

The really big question I have is if these (often) elderly politicians like Pelosi and Clinton are getting Paxlovid or the one remaining monoclonal as soon as they test positive (she's >80!)? All we hear is sth along the lines of the symptoms are mild thanks to vaccinations and boosters - if they receive further treatment, the public should be told (or they should shut up about their mild symptoms), because we follow their example (in terms of crowds and lack of masks).

At least H. Clinton couldn't receive Paxlovid because she has a blood clotting issue just like me, though not the same one. As far as I know, I would have to get the other pill, if I got it.

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Michigan rocking back up. We had been staying below 800 per day, but today's weekly report was a daily average of 1104. 

Sigh.

Thankfully cases are very very low where ds's commencement will be, and we will mask, all the students and faculty/staff will be masked. Crowd won't but we have KN95's so fingers crossed. My own county is at a bizarrely low level right now. Fingers crossed we will make it through commencement. After that we have summer stretching ahead and a ton of outdoor activities. Our trip west will include masking in gas stations, rest areas inside, and hotels when not in our rooms. We are packing food, cooking, grilling out, no restaurants, and all our activities except a couple of quick visitor center stops and the Golden Tower at the North Platte train yard are outdoors. If the pool and hot tub area of the hotel isn't busy, we may risk swimming and soaking. We can always skeddaddle if it gets busy. 

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I'm not trying to stir the pot (at all), but thoughts on the 2nd booster?  All 4 in my household are fully vaxed through the 1st booster (DH got the 1st booster in November).  But...I'm not jumping up and down to get the 2nd booster.  What are ya'll doing?  What are your reasons for or against?  I worry about getting a booster every 4 months for a possible short term effect.  And...new variants are coming with more shots/boosters.  DH and I are both over 50.  I am also rethinking getting my dad one too (he is 87 and declining in health already).  He is also vaxed through the 1st booster (got his in January).

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13 minutes ago, mlktwins said:

I'm not trying to stir the pot (at all), but thoughts on the 2nd booster?  All 4 in my household are fully vaxed through the 1st booster (DH got the 1st booster in November).  But...I'm not jumping up and down to get the 2nd booster.  What are ya'll doing?  What are your reasons for or against?  I worry about getting a booster every 4 months for a possible short term effect.  And...new variants are coming with more shots/boosters.  DH and I are both over 50.  I am also rethinking getting my dad one too (he is 87 and declining in health already).  He is also vaxed through the 1st booster (got his in January).

I don't know of any downsides to a 2nd booster. I'm not eligible but I hope I will before next school year starts. 

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27 minutes ago, mlktwins said:

I'm not trying to stir the pot (at all), but thoughts on the 2nd booster?  All 4 in my household are fully vaxed through the 1st booster (DH got the 1st booster in November).  But...I'm not jumping up and down to get the 2nd booster.  What are ya'll doing?  What are your reasons for or against?  I worry about getting a booster every 4 months for a possible short term effect.  And...new variants are coming with more shots/boosters.  DH and I are both over 50.  I am also rethinking getting my dad one too (he is 87 and declining in health already).  He is also vaxed through the 1st booster (got his in January).

Dh and I both got the 2nd booster already (both over 50).  No problems other than a slightly sore arm.  Happy to have any extra protection while everyone else pretends Covid is gone at the same time our case numbers and wastewater say we're heading right back up.  I don't want to go back into complete hiding, so I'm really happy to have another booster.  

I do hope they come up with a better/improved shot for the fall, though, rather than just more of the same.

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3 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Dh and I both got the 2nd booster already (both over 50).  No problems other than a slightly sore arm.  Happy to have any extra protection while everyone else pretends Covid is gone at the same time our case numbers and wastewater say we're heading right back up.  I don't want to go back into complete hiding, so I'm really happy to have another booster.  

I do hope they come up with a better/improved shot for the fall, though, rather than just more of the same.

We are getting ours too. I will continue with boosters since we come through them just fine. My mental health needs for me to resume some normalcy, and so I will take all the protection I can get.

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2 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

We are getting ours too. I will continue with boosters since we come through them just fine. My mental health needs for me to resume some normalcy, and so I will take all the protection I can get.

I get it.  We go out, but we still mask indoors and I've yet to eat inside a restaurant since early March 2020.  My boys mask in classes, but don't at swim practice/meets (obviously).  We do have summer swim coming up in early June and people (including me) will not be masking there - especially in the hot/humid weather.  Maybe we will wait until a little closer to that to try and get us protected for the 2 months of summer swim.  I am a team photographer so I am in all the action with everyone breathing around me - especially the littles :-).  

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Regarding the second booster:  My husband and I have decided to wait until we see the numbers going up.  We are thinking either next week or early the week after as the numbers around us seem to be trending up again.  I need to start really watching Ohio again.  I know the numbers in northeastern Ohio seem to be rising and during the big omicron wave it took about two/three weeks for it to migrate to our part of the state.  My dh had a moderate case in January as did at least one of the kids.

Edited by Tenaj
My fingers went faster than my brain
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42 minutes ago, mlktwins said:

I'm not trying to stir the pot (at all), but thoughts on the 2nd booster?  All 4 in my household are fully vaxed through the 1st booster (DH got the 1st booster in November).  But...I'm not jumping up and down to get the 2nd booster.  What are ya'll doing?  What are your reasons for or against?  I worry about getting a booster every 4 months for a possible short term effect.  And...new variants are coming with more shots/boosters.  DH and I are both over 50.  I am also rethinking getting my dad one too (he is 87 and declining in health already).  He is also vaxed through the 1st booster (got his in January).

I got mine a couple of months ago just before peak omicron in my area (immunocompromised, so my 2nd booster date opened early).  I did have an immunoresponse where I felt crummy and ran a fever overnight---which is GOOD since the concern was that my immune system wouldn't recognize the shot.  My teens in high school got their first booster at the same time. Anecdotal, I know, but none of us got covid with that wave despite nearly everyone I know outside of our house getting it.

So, my .02 is to time it for a wave....if you are concerned about B.A.2, I'd look at numbers in your area, otherwise I might wait until fall.  Part of my timing for late January/early February meant that I was planning for a good long break until probably late November to try to get a booster that will get me through the indoor winter months of traditional influenza season.  

My fragile and declining relative just got her second booster because she is worried about getting through BA2 and is socializing a lot still. So, YMMV.

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6 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I got mine a couple of months ago just before peak omicron in my area (immunocompromised, so my 2nd booster date opened early).  I did have an immunoresponse where I felt crummy and ran a fever overnight---which is GOOD since the concern was that my immune system wouldn't recognize the shot.  My teens in high school got their first booster at the same time. Anecdotal, I know, but none of us got covid with that wave despite nearly everyone I know outside of our house getting it.

So, my .02 is to time it for a wave....if you are concerned about B.A.2, I'd look at numbers in your area, otherwise I might wait until fall.  Part of my timing for late January/early February meant that I was planning for a good long break until probably late November to try to get a booster that will get me through the indoor winter months of traditional influenza season.  

My fragile and declining relative just got her second booster because she is worried about getting through BA2 and is socializing a lot still. So, YMMV.

That is what we want to do. Watch and see, time it for a wave, hope to have the added protection during the crisis. We haven't gotten them yet, but we are watching the numbers closely.

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9 minutes ago, Tenaj said:

Regarding the second booster:  My husband and I have decided to wait until we see the numbers going up.  We are thinking either next week or early the week after as the numbers around us seem to be trending up again.  I need to start really watching Ohio again.  I know the numbers in northeastern Ohio seem to be rising and during the big omicron wave it took about two/three weeks for it to migrate to our part of the state.  My dh had a moderate case in January as did at least one of the kids.

This is what we're doing too, we'll probably get it in the next 3 weeks.  Watching the numbers/wastewater.  We just hit 5 months since our first booster, we probably won't go longer than 6.

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We plan to get second boosters in the Fall when we expect our exposure to go up because we expect certain things that we do on Zoom currently  to end and go back in-person around that time. I got my first booster recently and there was a huge crowd of elderly lining up to get the second booster in the county run site I went to. Most were complaining that they had to take so many vaccines but were happy to have the boosters to enable them to go out and about.

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40 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

That is what we want to do. Watch and see, time it for a wave, hope to have the added protection during the crisis. We haven't gotten them yet, but we are watching the numbers closely.

Yeah, the numbers seem to be already going up here in the Northeast.  I was thinking of waiting, but then the numbers started rising already.  SIGH.

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2 hours ago, mlktwins said:

I'm not trying to stir the pot (at all), but thoughts on the 2nd booster?  All 4 in my household are fully vaxed through the 1st booster (DH got the 1st booster in November).  But...I'm not jumping up and down to get the 2nd booster.  What are ya'll doing?  What are your reasons for or against?  I worry about getting a booster every 4 months for a possible short term effect.  And...new variants are coming with more shots/boosters.  DH and I are both over 50.  I am also rethinking getting my dad one too (he is 87 and declining in health already).  He is also vaxed through the 1st booster (got his in January).

I'm immunocompromised. I've already had four shots in total -- the initial two doses, then a third dose when it was decided immunocompromised people need an initial three dose series, and then my first booster dose in January. I'll be eligible for my second booster next month. But I'm leaning toward taking a watch-and-wait approach. I saw my primary care PA last week and she suggested we do the blood test for antibodies, and I do have some (which I know tells us nothing except that I DO have some). So . . leaning toward watching and waiting, hoping I can hold another booster off until fall.

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6 minutes ago, Hilltopmom said:

I just had covid in March, so I’m hoping that acts as my next “booster”, then I can get a new booster in the fall before school starts, fingers crossed.

Same except in February. I plan to wait until fall, but will keep my eye on things.

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42 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

I'm immunocompromised. I've already had four shots in total -- the initial two doses, then a third dose when it was decided immunocompromised people need an initial three dose series, and then my first booster dose in January. I'll be eligible for my second booster next month. But I'm leaning toward taking a watch-and-wait approach. I saw my primary care PA last week and she suggested we do the blood test for antibodies, and I do have some (which I know tells us nothing except that I DO have some). So . . leaning toward watching and waiting, hoping I can hold another booster off until fall.

Did you bring it up with your PA? My parent's doctor won't do antibody tests.

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18 minutes ago, YaelAldrich said:

Did you bring it up with your PA? My parent's doctor won't do antibody tests.

Yes. I asked her what her thoughts were about me getting another shot next month. First she said that I should either go ahead and get it or that I could ask my rheumy for his opinion. But as we talked a little more she suggested that we check my antibodies since we were drawing blood for my thyroid check anyway. So we did.

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3 hours ago, mlktwins said:

Here is one article I've read https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/05/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine .  It talks about the effects of a 2nd booster (4th shot) only lasting about 4 weeks and almost disappears after 8 weeks.

 

But that's just for protection against infection. Protection against severe disease actually increased at the 6 week mark, and the study was too short to determine how long that lasted. But at least during the time period they studied, rates of severe disease were 3.5x higher in those who only had one booster vs two.

And for anyone whose first three shots were all the same manufacturer, there is some evidence of benefit in mixing manufacturers, since Moderna and Pfizer have slightly different effects in terms of which parts of the immune system respond most strongly. So if you had all one manufacturer so far, you could switch for the 4th shot and possibly get some benefit. 

I got my second booster last week, exactly 5 months after the first, and plan to get another dose of whatever seems to be the best option in late September/early October — hoping that Novavax or some other non-mRNA vaccine will be approved by then, to provide even broader spectrum immunity. 

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re boosting / mixing manufacturers

56 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

But that's just for protection against infection. Protection against severe disease actually increased at the 6 week mark, and the study was too short to determine how long that lasted. But at least during the time period they studied, rates of severe disease were 3.5x higher in those who only had one booster vs two.

And for anyone whose first three shots were all the same manufacturer, there is some evidence of benefit in mixing manufacturers, since Moderna and Pfizer have slightly different effects in terms of which parts of the immune system respond most strongly. So if you had all one manufacturer so far, you could switch for the 4th shot and possibly get some benefit. 

I got my second booster last week, exactly 5 months after the first, and plan to get another dose of whatever seems to be the best option in late September/early October — hoping that Novavax or some other non-mRNA vaccine will be approved by then, to provide even broader spectrum immunity. 

This is my attitude as well. My husband and I originally did Moderna 1/2 the first week we were eligible; then we did Pfizer booster 1 the first week we were eligible; then last week we did Pfizer booster 2 as soon as we were eligible for that. And hoping that by fall one of the non-mRNAs come on line -- not because I have any kind of reservation about the mRNAs (we made it through Delta and Omicrom spikes without ever contracting it, dialing back but not dialing OFF our cautious contacts) but more because, none of the vaccines work perfectly particularly against new variants, so, bring on the new different-shaped slice of another type of Swiss cheese so I can add that to the imperfect layers of protection.

It's not that I *like* shots.  But cases are spiking, again, in my area. And I want to live a ~75% normal life.  If getting a booster every 3-6 months for as long as it takes, is what it takes, here's my arm.

Edited by Pam in CT
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Covid-19 booster raises antibody levels against Omicron for children ages 5 through 11, Pfizer and BioNTech say - CNN

A third shot of the children's dose of Pfizer/BioNTech's Covid-19 vaccine raised Omicron-fighting antibodies by 36 times in kids 5 through 11 years of age, the companies said in a news release Thursday. The companies plan to request emergency use authorization from the US Food and Drug Administration for a booster dose for this age group.

Edited by mommyoffive
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22 hours ago, mlktwins said:

I'm not trying to stir the pot (at all), but thoughts on the 2nd booster?  All 4 in my household are fully vaxed through the 1st booster (DH got the 1st booster in November).  But...I'm not jumping up and down to get the 2nd booster.  What are ya'll doing?  What are your reasons for or against?  I worry about getting a booster every 4 months for a possible short term effect.  And...new variants are coming with more shots/boosters.  DH and I are both over 50.  I am also rethinking getting my dad one too (he is 87 and declining in health already).  He is also vaxed through the 1st booster (got his in January).

My parents just got theirs. If eligibility opens up for my age group I'll get it, but may try to time it for rising case numbers. 

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15 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

If dogs can smell Covid as accurately as they seem to be able to, it makes sense that they could figure out a test that can do it.  Easier than training that many dogs...  Glad someone thought of it - and seems to have figured it out!

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On 4/13/2022 at 5:48 PM, Tenaj said:

Regarding the second booster:  My husband and I have decided to wait until we see the numbers going up.  We are thinking either next week or early the week after as the numbers around us seem to be trending up again.  I need to start really watching Ohio again.  I know the numbers in northeastern Ohio seem to be rising and during the big omicron wave it took about two/three weeks for it to migrate to our part of the state.  My dh had a moderate case in January as did at least one of the kids.

I'm also watching the numbers in northeast Ohio and hoping I can hold off on my second booster until mid-June, to maximize my immunity for our trip to Ireland in July. 

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Our county numbers are trending up but are still pretty low, averaging 15 cases a day a week ago to 19 a day yesterday. But I think there is more a lot more activity not being tested. I have 1-2 students in most of my classes marked IL on the roll (illness) on any given day and I get emails most days about another case or two reported for someone who was in our building (student or staff). So it's still out there. I continue to wear my N95 and I'm still hoping to get away with no 4th shot until fall.

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I have a couple of booster questions, if anyone has info/ideas, time to read:

1.) DH will be needing to travel (internationally) to an area with high Covid levels soon, and he’ll be exclusively using public transportation once there. He will mask, and do what he can to eat outside, but inevitably he will need to do an indoor dinner (with CEO, can’t be missed).

His trip is flexible, it’s going to be a spur of the moment thing as soon as we feel best about Covid. (I’d really like to see the state dept take that country off of level 4, too, but not holding my breath—that’s another question re: this trip, how that impacts travelers.)

We are thinking he might time his booster to get maximum effect. How soon after the booster would it be most effective, anyone know? 
 

 

2.) My other question(s): has anyone else been told *not* to get a booster? Did you listen to your doc? What does that mean for you, and how do you mitigate risk?

My crummy health issues mentioned in another thread all started with a hospital stay one week after my first shot. I delayed shot 2, till I was stronger, but still had a rocky few months after the first two shot series. I was fine again for a few months, then hospitalized again after shot 3. I am having similar issues again, aaaaghhh! I haven’t even had a recent shot, but it seems to be this same mysterious issue. My doc told me Thurs that she doesn’t think I should get another shot. At the very least, not till we know more about what’s going on.

Sigh. I want the shot. I have a crappy immune system, and while I mask when out, DD’s BFF comes over for sleepovers now, and DS has friends over to hang outside or in the basement, but they use our bathrooms. Kids’ parents are around, and we just hang out on the porch (thank goodness we have a comfy sitting area!). I don’t want to give all that up, for the sake of the kids, you know? We’ve been really hunkered down, and they need this.

So, my choices are to ignore her and get a 4th shot, or figure out how to mitigate risk. Any thoughts or tips?

 

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