this is a dumb question, so talk to me like I am not really bright

[Pam in CT]

It's not a dumb question AT ALL.  It's a question preoccupying macro economists, labor sector analysts, legislators, public health authorities, and employers across the country.

This thread has already touched on, and I've read/heard labor economists speak to, several clumps of related factors.

• Withdrawals from the labor force directly related to COVID:  This includes not only those who have actually died from COVID (to Lori's point, a large majority of the 778K dead were already retired from the labor force), but also those who recovered with sufficient long COVID physical or mental impairments that they are now unable to work; and also, "rippling out," those who in now have to care for spouses with such lingering impairments.  As well, there have also been significant measured deceases in immigrant labor due to visa halts and border closures and -- much harder to measure, but indisputedly a major factor in certain industries -- decrease in undocumented workers that keep whole sectors, particularly in hospitality and in-home child care, afloat.  When dead + physically impaired + mentally still in crisis + HIB visas + undocumented restaurant + cleaning service + hotel workers +++ are all considered, the contraction in the labor force *directly* due to the illness itself and immigration policy is vastly, vastly higher than (some fraction) of the 778K dead.
• Withdrawals from the labor force indirectly, but definitely, related to COVID - this is where both the costs and the structure of childcare pre-COVID kicks in.  There are two main forms of childcare -- in centers, and in-home care (daily babysitter, live-in nannies or au pairs).  Both forms have always had a fragility around what happens if anyone gets sick: if you send your sick kid in, she'll infect others, but there is no other backup that enables you to go to work -- this is one reason why in-home care is attractive to those who can afford it; your own kid will be less exposed to other kids' green guck.  However, it cuts both ways, because if one teacher at the center is ill there are other teachers to keep the center going; if your nanny gets too sick to power through, you have no backup that enables you to go to work. This brittleness in the structure of childcare was immensely exacerbated by COVID -- even above and beyond mandated center closures/ mandated center spacing / shutdowns in the J1B visas that allowed au pairs in... every time one teacher, or one kid, was exposed or ill there were, and continue to be, ripple effects that force other kids to stay home... without a backup that allows parents to work.  Similarly the schools -- for 18 months schools were either closed, or hybrid, or suffering constant rolling risk of rolling quarantines... without a backup that allows parents to work.  This has had a wildly disproportionate effect on women who left the labor force in higher percentages and who are still not returning... and that female-heavy effect of having COVID-driven unreliability of childcare/school coverage has in turn rippled out to female-concentrated professions, particularly nursing and teaching, both of which warrant their own category.
• Teaching and nursing: simultaneously "essential" yet reviled. These two sectors have a particularly visible, and particularly COVID-affected, role.  From the beginning, so "essential" that they had to keep going right from the start... yet at the same time, we did not prioritize even the PPE/ventilation/facilities/ relievers to ensure their physical safety and mental wellbeing, let alone actually paying them more for hardship pay.  On the contrary, teachers and nurses have pretty literally been reviled throughout this plague - in the beginning, nurses for falsifying patient records to "collect" phantom payments and teachers for "relaxing" at home; then for wanting masking and testing, then for wanting vaccination. Unsurprisingly: those nurses and teachers who could retire, retired.
• Extended unemployment benefits. Many business owners, and many advocates of small-government, and some economists, argued that extended unemployment benefits were suppressing labor force participation -- why would someone work, when they could get paid for staying at home? To the extent that was ever explanatory, I believe all states (including mine, which kept the extensions later than most, though September) have now ended them, so to the extent that effect was ever driving labor force dynamics, the problem should now be over.
• Positive structural changes in nature of certain work, which causes ripple effects on the nature of work. COVID forced a realization that many job functions actually can be done remotely. Some of that learning will have permanent effects.  Many jobs that always used to be in-office 5x/week have moved either to fully remote forever, or 1-2x/week indefinitely. That in turn affects train ridership, the lunches they used to eat, the real estate configurations of the offices, the cleaning of the offices, the office furniture/equipment supply chains and (.....).  Fewer downtown restaurant volume, many more Uber Eats drivers, all the way down.
• Structural discontent in the nature of certain other work, which causes ripple effects on the nature of work.  COVID also forced a realization that a whole lot of workers we labeled as "essential" were actually treated as something close to "disposable."  Long before COVID, a great many workers earned too little, with too few too-itinerant hours, and no benefits, to cover the cost of living without dipping into food banks and federal benefits.  The structure of this no-rights marginalized labor force was that charity and food stamps subsidized large corporations like Walmart and McDonalds.  The way capitalist markets are supposed to work is... if a necessary input is scarce, its value is supposed to increase, until the market is in equilibrium again.  That is, if very-necessary workers are scarce, employers will pay more, until they attract the talent they need and the market is back in equilibrium. But while there's a lot of talk about (one off) bonuses to lure people into particular jobs, there remains a real resistance to the idea that actual wages are not high enough.  However, at the same time that employers are loathe to raise wages and improve the consistency/predictability of workers' schedules... all of a sudden there are a zillion new *drivers* being hired, by Amazon and Uber Eats and etc, most of whom are quasi-independent contractors. So there are choices there didn't used to be, choices that (though the jobs may still be dead end) at least allow workers a somewhat greater degree of autonomy in determining which days or hours they'll work, which in turn allows them to at least *try* to map to the needs of other family members in a way that the old structure -- "OK I'll need you tomorrow from 10-1" never did.

And there are supply chain hiccups as every other nation in the world also has its own COVID disruptions and attendant ripples, and some of those affect businesses here. Every butterfly wing, and etc.

 

There's no one single answer. But there are a LOT of drivers, and markets take a lot of time to re-equilibriate. I hope this one ends up with better safety nets, higher real wages, and better working conditions. One can hope.

[Bootsie]

2 minutes ago, TechWife said:

I can’t imagine a survey getting an accurate count of reasons why people aren’t working. Teasing out childcare issues is very detailed work. is anyone funding that? I can think of several reasons someone would list “childcare” as a reason but there are many ways that reasoning can play out. Sometimes common sense and anecdotal evidence is enough to draw a conclusion, especially in local areas. 
 

I think the sandwich generation does play a role in it as well. People have real limits. 

In this situation it would not make sense to me that there has been a significant issue of people who have died form COVID not being able to provide childcare for grandkids.   About 400,000 of the COVID deaths in the US have been in the population over the age of 75; half of those are people over the age of 85.  What percentage of these individuals would one have to assume were providing free child care for a working relative to conclude it is making a significant impact on labor force participation statistics?  What percentage of these individuals do you think were being cared for by a relative pre-COVID that are now free to enter the labor force to offset the childcare losses?  

[TechWife]

4 hours ago, Longtime Lurker said:

Yes, the ACA Marketplace is a very good option right now for those without jobs or with low/medium incomes. We are finally making some progress at severing the workplace/healthcare connection.

Only if your state expanded Medicaid. My sister was a manager at a Subway. Her ACA policy for 2022 price out at $820 per month. She has lupus. She quit. Now she can get Medicaid if she can’t find a job with benefits. 

[regentrude]

4 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

In this situation it would not make sense to me that there has been a significant issue of people who have died form COVID not being able to provide childcare for grandkids.   About 400,000 of the COVID deaths in the US have been in the population over the age of 75; half of those are people over the age of 85.  

why does that not make sense to you? Because people over 75 can't provide childcare?
My grandmother was 72 when I was born; she was taking care of me during my first years while my mother worked in another city and continued to provide significant childcare for me and my younger siblings into her nineties. Without her, my mother would not have been able to work.

Not sure I understand the argument.
 

 

Edited December 4, 2021 by regentrude

[Bootsie]

Just now, regentrude said:

why does that not make sense to you? Because people over 75 can't provide childcare?
My grandmother was 72 when I was born; she was taking care of my during my first years while my mother worked in another city, and continued to provide significant childcare for me and my younger siblings into her nineties.

Not sure I understand the argument.
 

 

Knowing what I know about who is in the workforce, who is providing childcare, who is dying from COVID it does not make sense to me that what we are seeing in the labor market is a result of, or even being significantly impacted by, parents losing childcare because a family member who was providing childcare died from COVID.  I think individuals may be impacted by this, but many things can be significant to an individual person/family but not be significant at the labor market level.  The labor market is a totality of many personal stories and impacts.  The impacts in only one direction (people losing childcare) cannot be considered withought considering offseting impact in the other direction (people no longer taking care of elderly relative, for example) to understand the impact at the market level.  

I definitely think that people over 75 can provide childcare.  I think the nuber of those who WERE providing childcare to relatives but have died from COVID, leaving the worker without childcare is low relative to the size of the laborforce.  It is tragic for those families, but in the whole of the labor market it does not seem to be making a major impact.  

[Pam in CT]

The effect on COVID on grandparent childcare provider is particularly subject to ripple effects. It's not only the spry 75 yo grandmother who contracted COVID and then died whose ability to continue in that capacity. It is also

• the same 75 yo grandmother, who survived COVID but now suffers lingering effects that preclude her ability to chase after grandchildren; or
• the same 75 yo grandmother, who is herself fine, but whose spouse contracted COVID and survived, but is now sufficiently frail that she cannot any longer care for children as well; and
• the same 75 grandmother, who is OK physically but whose mental state after ~20 months of COVID leaves her unsuitable for the demands of childcare; and
• the same 75 yo grandmother, who refuses vaccination and whose out-and-about lifestyle makes the parents unwilling to leave their 0-5 year old unvaccinated kids with her; or
• the same 75 yo grandmother, who is delighted to play games/ hang out with the kids, but unable or unwilling to serve as online-learning specialist whenever / however the schools go virtual due to COVID quarantines

and etc.  These things are almost impossible to measure, but efforts to survey working women about the impact of COVID (this one that CT did is now dated, but it gets to the right questions) suggest that they are indeed happening.

[Corraleno]

8 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Knowing what I know about who is in the workforce, who is providing childcare, who is dying from COVID it does not make sense to me that what we are seeing in the labor market is a result of, or even being significantly impacted by, parents losing childcare because a family member who was providing childcare died from COVID. 

But in addition to those who have actually died, there are all those who may have been sick for an extended period of time and/or have long-term complications from covid that mean they no longer have the strength or energy for childcare, and an even larger percentage who simply wanted or needed to isolate to protect themselves.

[Arcadia]

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/a-lot-of-jobs-werent-great-in-2019-either-job-hunters-had-one-big-advantage-during-the-pandemic-says-top-obama-economist-11638445671
“Nowadays, not working is more attractive than it was before the pandemic “in part because people have more cash, and in part, because job openings are so high,” Furman said. What’s more, analysts say many people have decided to retire during the pandemic.

For the majority of the pandemic, Americans were stashing away money at record rates. The money they were saving, in many cases, came from stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits which last through September.

Also, when much of the economy was locked down to curb the spread of COVID-19, Americans had limited opportunities to spend money.

But since March 2021, Americans have been dipping into their savings.

In October, Americans’ personal saving rate, calculated as a percentage of disposable income, dipped to 7.3% from 8.2% in September, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

That’s slightly below the pre-pandemic savings rate, 8.3%. To put those figures in context: At the height of the pandemic, the savings rate was above 30%.”

Edited December 4, 2021 by Arcadia

[TechWife]

33 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

In this situation it would not make sense to me that there has been a significant issue of people who have died form COVID not being able to provide childcare for grandkids.   About 400,000 of the COVID deaths in the US have been in the population over the age of 75; half of those are people over the age of 85.  What percentage of these individuals would one have to assume were providing free child care for a working relative to conclude it is making a significant impact on labor force participation statistics?  What percentage of these individuals do you think were being cared for by a relative pre-COVID that are now free to enter the labor force to offset the childcare losses?  

Another piece is how many older people decided it was too risky to keep their grandchildren?

[73349]

I suspect that an interesting effect of having teachers and daycare workers, mostly female, at the low end of typical pay for people of their education level is that long-term workers in the field were often those married to a higher earner. Then push having come to shove--their own childcare needs increased, their workplace in some cases quite dangerous (e.g., no mask requirement), and/or the spouse having found an opportunity to relocate--the couples found that it made sense for that education/childcare worker to leave the workplace.

Schools often rely on retired teachers to fill in gaps (long term subs, daily subs, part-time work), and a number of those people have decided it isn't worth the risk. I have a friend who's retired from teaching high school science, and the school has reached out to her a couple of times... NOPE, not a chance, good luck. She's perfectly able (in her mid-70s), but unwilling.

Edited August 28, 2022 by 73349

[Frances]

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

But, male labor force participation has dropped more than female labor force participation   Female labor force participation is about 99 percent of what it was in 2018; male labor force participation is only about 98 percent of its 2018 level.

 

As I mentioned upthread, at least in my state male labor force participation was at record lows before the pandemic, even later than 2018.  Economists were still trying to figure out all of the reasons, but it was thought that drug testing requirements and addiction issues played a role.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Frances

[denarii]

7 hours ago, TechWife said:

Many of the older people that died provided child care for family members. Losing free/affordable child care forces people out of work. 

If something happened to my mother it would push me out of the workforce. I had to return to work because my husband's income was reduced due to covid. Childcare would cost me an extra 2200 a month without my family helping out. After taxes I would be loosing money each month. 

[JFSinIL]

18 hours ago, gardenmom5 said:

My friend is in Portland OR schools.  83% of teachers in her building - are thinking of leaving.  They will probably move to other cities/states.

 

My youngest , a first-time teacher (5th grade) this year, wants to get out of Illinois, and has been looking around the PNW.  What district in Oregon needs teachers?

She keeps harping on wanting to move down to Texas and i keep asking WHY???

[EKS]

18 hours ago, Scarlett said:

5) a fair number of people are rethinking their live choices as to work….not sure how that will shake out.

Exactly. 

They keep saying that women with children aren't reentering the workforce because they are worried that school may be canceled at any moment.  I'd argue that perhaps a good portion of them have actually realized that focusing on family isn't as bad as the dominant culture since the 1970s would have us believe.

[Terabith]

5 minutes ago, EKS said:

Exactly. 

They keep saying that women with children aren't reentering the workforce because they are worried that school may be canceled at any moment.  I'd argue that perhaps a good portion of them have actually realized that focusing on family isn't as bad as the dominant culture since the 1970s would have us believe.

There's also a fair amount of people who are married to people who make more money than them and can work remotely or in a hybrid situation and are like, "Is this job worth literally dying for?"

Especially when you're looking at school districts and states with no mask mandates and children who cannot be vaccinated.  (Or even who could be, knowing most will not be.). 

I mean, my life plan had originally been to go back to work last year, and that was my logic.  That it wasn't worth dying for.  And then the plan was next year, but now with no functional transportation to get my kid to school, I can't work because I need to drive her.  

Extra money would be nice with kids going to college, but it's not essential.  I'm guessing I'm not alone.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Terabith

[MEmama]

4 minutes ago, Terabith said:

There's also a fair amount of people who are married to people who make more money than them and can work remotely or in a hybrid situation and are like, "Is this job worth literally dying for?"

Especially when you're looking at school districts and states with no mask mandates and children who cannot be vaccinated.  (Or even who could be, knowing most will not be.). 

I mean, my life plan had originally been to go back to work last year, and that was my decision.  And then the plan was next year, but now with no functional transportation to get my kid to school, I can't work because I need to drive her.  

Yeah, this is similar to where I’m at. My plan was to be working part time,  but since we don’t *need* any miserly income I’d pull in, it’s not worth the risk right now. I’d prefer to work, and the extra money would be nice, but the risk greatly outweighs the benefits.

I lost my job as a covid casualty but opted not to file for unemployment because I figured the state should concentrate on paying out for people who truly need it. So I’m still out of the workforce, but probably don't show up on anyone’s statistics spreadsheet. 🤷‍♀️
 

I'd venture to guess there a lot of people— primarily women— out there in a similar position. 

[DreamerGirl]

It is a storm of factors in my opinion.

When I started out my job less than 20 years ago, I could afford a one bedroom apartment on my own in an urban city. I was on work visa converted from student in a tech field which did not give me a choice of employers or salary. I had to pretty much take what I was offered. But the salary was enough to pay my bills without having any family here for support and not living pay check to paycheck after a while. I had health insurance. I lived frugally, did not have much comforts or possessions (mostly pots and pans, a mattress, desk, chair, simple electronics). I built my first computer because it was cheaper to do so. But I could save, travel and live simply with options for growth because the cost of living and salary were compatible. I was in my early 20s.

DH and I could buy a house with a downpayment after saving and living frugally for a while with two incomes. We had student loans, a mortgage.   DH and I came here with two suitcases each and everything we have now is over a period of 20 years. What we have, we earned mostly. We started from scratch.  

I cannot say my children have the same options now just based on the cost of living vs salary. They will need tremendous scaffolding starting from college costs and to start adulting. The simple reason is wages have not kept up with cost of living in my view. It started way before the pandemic and over a period of years.

People are not putting up with not having a living wage while the CEOs are paid in millions and workers are shafted. They are demanding more and the sunk cost of having invested a lot of years in one field and afraid of change has changed after the pandemic. 

Edited December 4, 2021 by DreamerGirl

[regentrude]

4 minutes ago, DreamerGirl said:

It is a storm of factors in my opinion.

When I started out my job less than 20 years ago, I could afford a one bedroom apartment on my own in an urban city. I was on work visa converted from student in a tech field which did not give me a choice of employers or salary. I had to pretty much take what I was offered. But the salary was enough to pay my bills without having any family here for support and not living pay check to paycheck after a while. I had health insurance. I lived frugally, did not have much comforts or possessions (mostly pots and pans, a mattress, desk, chair, simple electronics). I built my first computer because it was cheaper to do so. But I could save, travel and live simply with options for growth because the cost of living and salary were compatible. I was in my early 20s.

DH and I could buy a house with a downpayment after saving and living frugally for a while with two incomes. We had student loans, a mortgage.   DH and I came here with two suitcases each and everything we have now is over a period of 20 years. What we have, we earned mostly. We started from scratch.  

I cannot say my children have the same options now just based on the cost of living vs salary. They will need tremendous scaffolding starting from college costs and to start adulting. The simple reason is wages have not kept up with cost of living in my view. It started way before the pandemic and over a period of years.

Thank you for sharing your experience. I am just not sure I understand how this explains the decrease in work force participation the OP was asking about? If anything, this would make an argument in favor of working.

Edited December 4, 2021 by regentrude

[Danae]

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

The SIPP database by the Census Bureau collects data on childcare arrangements and gives an idea of how many children are being cared for by grandparents and other relatives.  I don't know of anhy survey that is asking the question "have you left the workforce because a family member who provided child care for you died from COVID?"  But, information from these different surveys are put together for deduction.  

Yes, childcare has been an issue for people during COVID.  Much of that seems to be surrounding the need for more supervision of school aged children who are doing schooling from home.

Even that wouldn't catch families who couldn't find an opening at a child care provider because openings have been taken by other kids who would have been cared for by family members if they hadn't died of/been disabled by COVID.

[DreamerGirl]

8 minutes ago, regentrude said:

Thank you for sharing your experience. I am just not sure I understand how this explains the decrease in work force participation the OP was asking about? If anything, this would make an argument in favor of working.

I edited to add this. I guess we cross posted.

"People are not putting up with not having a living wage while the CEOs are paid in millions and workers are shafted. They are demanding more and the sunk cost of having invested a lot of years in one field and afraid of change has changed after the pandemic. "

What I see is people not being afraid to leave a bad working experience or get trained in another field. They are not scared to job hop. They are not scared to ask for an exact salary in an interview. if they are told the pay is $20 an hour, it should be $20 an hour, they are willing to walk away from the job if says up to $20.

People are looking for work/life balance. They are looking for better working conditions. In a time of profit, when CEO pays are getting higher and there is wage stagnation, people are going on strike or unionizing. If people are not offered WFH and asked to come to the office they quit. If they are asked to relocate they refuse and keep looking. Previously not many would do that.

This generation does not have the same options a generation ago had and it is because of insane rise of rents and housing, food, transport. It was before the pandemic. I guess a reckoning is being had ?

Edited December 4, 2021 by DreamerGirl

[Hilltopmom]

19 hours ago, DawnM said:

Why is childcare a problem to find?

I wouldn't say my husband's job is "lesser desired" at all, but people are leaving.....

And you are right about the retirement.   I do know people taking early retirement right now.   I don't have stats on that, but I have heard of it going on.

 

Childcare is hard to find because thousands of daycare centers and in home providers closed over the last few years due to covid financial devastation (reduced class size & cleaning costs). They only pay minimum wage and can’t find workers and then they close programs so there are many fewer daycare slots available in all places. I have several friends who wanted to return to work but could not find childcare in our area - waitlists are several years long right now. 
Dd,18 just left her daycare job because she kept getting sick and they had no one to cover her room if she was out. She did recommend a friend of hers to fill her position. Burger King next door to the daycare pays $3 an hour more and you don’t need all the training & certificates she needed. No wonder they have trouble finding people- oh, & daycares don’t pay insurance or sick days.

Edited December 4, 2021 by Hilltopmom

[Frances]

1 hour ago, JFSinIL said:

My youngest , a first-time teacher (5th grade) this year, wants to get out of Illinois, and has been looking around the PNW.  What district in Oregon needs teachers?

She keeps harping on wanting to move down to Texas and i keep asking WHY???

I’m in Oregon and I think most districts are hurting, especially for things like special education. She probably needs to think about what part of the state she wants to live in and go from there. Unfortunately, housing wise there aren’t really any inexpensive places to live. But there is a range. Oregon is a really big state land wise and there are pretty distinct regions in terms of geography and weather, not to mention population and politics.

[Hilltopmom]

9 hours ago, DawnM said:

 Bizarro is right.

I am SO THANKFUL for my new job in a fully remote school.   The bus situation alone was a mess.   I was having to go in 45 min. before school and stay 45 min. after just for transportation issues.   Bus drivers are driving double and triple runs.

I work in a remote school, but we still go into a building so that the staff can work together.   Although we are planning to start going to a hybrid type schedule soon, and work from home 3 days per week.   I can't wait.

I have only worked in middle and high school, so the lice issues hasn't been as bad.

I do wonder what is going to happen with the new variant.

Yeah, this year is insane.. no bus drivers, no subs… 

[Hilltopmom]

13 hours ago, Frances said:

Not only that, but so many nursing home/long term care/assisted living facilities are chronically understaffed that it is very stressful for the employees. My son worked in a dementia facility the summer before he started college and he was very impressed by many of his coworkers, primarily single moms. Many of them were underemployed paramedics. Staffing was so bad he was constantly offered extra shifts. And the workers really had to work together in teams, but even then could rarely meet the minimum standards of care. Plus, because he could speak Spanish, he found out management was only allowing the dining staff to clock eight hours, but required them to finish certain work before they could leave, no matter how long they were there.

It was a very eye opening experience for him. And motivated him to do the training and certification to become a volunteer long term care ombudsman.

Right now in my state staffing issues are so bad at all of these types of facilities that some patients are unnecessarily being kept in the hospital, sometimes for more than a month, because there are no places with available beds. And it’s adding to stress on hospitals.

 

Our county just asked the National Guard to come help staff the nursing homes. 

[Pam in CT]

Re "reckoning" in the labor market --

I agree that at the professional/other services that COVID has taught can be done remotely end of the labor market, there is a "reckoning" toward a different work/life balance.  I'm definitely seeing that in my area, which is a possible-but-very-grueling commute to NYC, that takes ~3 hours/day... that just isn't ever going to go back to how it was.  Some employers have realized they can reconfigure $$$$$ Manhattan space and achieve substantial cost savings if they have employees come in a day or two a week, into shared/flex spaces, and still get the work & client contact done.  Some employees have gone fully remote for good; some have left  entirely for lower COL areas.  All of a sudden it's possible for the first time to coach the kids' soccer teams, make the middle school band concerts, run for local Board of Finance, etc.

I think, and hope, that there is a different type of "reckoning" on the other end of the services labor market, stuff that CANNOT be done remotely. Cashiers, waitresses, dishwashers, warehouse workers, inventory loaders.  Jobs that have long been very low wage, without benefits, and without PTO for vacations or sick days, or even full time hours or consistent schedules.  Jobs that not only don't pay enough to live without federal benefits, but also in many cases aren't regular enough schedules to enable employees to schedule doctor's appointments, or to attend parent-teacher conferences, or to schedule regular child care. Before the pandemic, ever more people were eking out an existence in jobs that were not only insufficient income to sustain a stable life, but were also insufficiently predictable -- in scheduling and in the # of hours -- to sustain a stable life. Some of this showed up in underemployment numbers; as well as high turnover rates (if employees get fired for not coming in when sick... well, the turnover rate is going to be high, isn't it.)

It is these lower-wage sectors, more so than the professional services sectors (outside nursing and teaching, which I'd argue have specific COVID dynamics), that at least in my area seem to be suffering from the current labor crunch -- the restaurants, retail stores, hotels.  COVID both brought the brittle-ness of the system to the fore -- I can't wait until Monday to find out what hours I'll be working on Tuesday when my third grader may/may not be suddenly virtual again -- and also revealed how the system had been built on a kind of denial of illness -- that employees were expected to just work through illness, and workers who took time off for their own illness, the illness of their children, or quarantine were simply fired.

To the extent that people were staying out of those lower-wage, lower-quality jobs because of extended unemployment benefits... that effect should be over by now, since even in the states that extended, the benefits ended in the first half of September.  So it looks like something beyond any adverse motivation effects is happening. If you believe in markets, in theory employers should be willing to pay more... and the bonuses kinda-sorta amount to paying more, but not the same as higher actual wages.  And bonuses don't address more fundamental quality-of-job issues like full-time vs part-time hours, predictable schedules, PTO, benefits and etc. 

COVID revealed a lot of fault lines in how our economy is built on a foundation of marginal jobs that don't allow a real living or the predictability of a stable life.  I think a real "reckoning" in the labor market has to get to that stuff too.

[Frances]

3 minutes ago, Hilltopmom said:

Our county just asked the National Guard to come help staff the nursing homes. 

I’m guessing that might be next here. They and other military forces are already helping in private hospitals and at the state psychiatric facility.

[Dmmetler]

20 hours ago, DawnM said:

Why is childcare a problem to find?

I wouldn't say my husband's job is "lesser desired" at all, but people are leaving.....

And you are right about the retirement.   I do know people taking early retirement right now.   I don't have stats on that, but I have heard of it going on.

 

 The preschool and aftercare  program at my center pays $12.50/hr for lead teachers and $10.50 for assistants. They never had any trouble getting people pre-COVID because the preschool jobs were largely filled by moms of school aged kids who liked having a part time job that followed the school schedule and let them drop their kids off at school, come to work, work, and then pick their kids up (preschool is 9-2, PS is 8-3), and retired teachers who wanted to keep their hand in, so teaching preschool was a nice hobby job. After care/extended day for school age kids was mostly staffed by college students. 

 

The moms largely left when they had to supervise virtual school, and didn't come back due to the uncertainty of schools staying open, retired adults can't risk being exposed. College kids can make more in Retail or fast food jobs. Plus, we have lost over a year of supplemental fundraising and events which helped subsidize the programs and keep tuition low. As it stands, we simply cannot raise wages without dramatically increasing tuition-and most of the parents who use the program couldn't afford a tuition hike. 

[DreamerGirl]

A sample of what is happening can be seen by the Amazon protests. 

During Black Friday there was a co-ordinated workers protest of Amazon workers across several developed and developing countries on Black Friday. This included US, UK, India, Bangladesh and several others.

https://mashable.com/article/amazon-black-friday-protests-make-amazon-pay

Jeff Bezos personal fortune has grown by billions during the pandemic. At the cost of workers shafted both in the developed and developing world. His is so out of touch he thanked every Amazon employee and customer who "paid for this" during his space race pissing contest.  You bet I changed my shopping habits as much as I can though I love convenience at the click of a button. 

What is happening now is part of a larger movement if you ask me. 

Edited December 4, 2021 by DreamerGirl

[DreamerGirl]

Don't know if this has been posted in this thread already.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-05/raising-cane-s-sends-corporate-staff-to-work-in-restaurants?sref=lAVQtUwz

This is a chicken fast food chain. 

[DawnM]

2 minutes ago, DreamerGirl said:

Don't know if this has been posted in this thread already.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-05/raising-cane-s-sends-corporate-staff-to-work-in-restaurants?sref=lAVQtUwz

This is a chicken fast food chain. 

It won't let me read without subscribing.

[Frances]

8 minutes ago, DreamerGirl said:

A sample of what is happening can be seen by the Amazon protests. 

During Black Friday there was a co-ordinated workers protest of Amazon workers across several developed and developing countries on Black Friday. This included US, UK, India, Bangladesh and several others.

https://mashable.com/article/amazon-black-friday-protests-make-amazon-pay

Jeff Bezos personal fortune has grown by billions during the pandemic. At the cost of workers shafted both in the developed and developing world. His is so out of touch he thanked every Amazon employee and customer who "paid for this" during his space race pissing contest.  You bet I changed my shopping habits as much as I can though I love convenience at the click of a button. 

What is happening now is part of a larger movement if you ask me. 

One of many reasons why I try to only do one Amazon order per year. I don’t like shopping of any type, but I like enriching jerks like Bezos even less.

[Dmmetler]

1 hour ago, Terabith said:

There's also a fair amount of people who are married to people who make more money than them and can work remotely or in a hybrid situation and are like, "Is this job worth literally dying for?"

Especially when you're looking at school districts and states with no mask mandates and children who cannot be vaccinated.  (Or even who could be, knowing most will not be.). 

I mean, my life plan had originally been to go back to work last year, and that was my logic.  That it wasn't worth dying for.  And then the plan was next year, but now with no functional transportation to get my kid to school, I can't work because I need to drive her.  

Extra money would be nice with kids going to college, but it's not essential.  I'm guessing I'm not alone.

I am seriously considering not returning in Jan because the state has blocked my being able to require masks in my classes. I'm willing to teach when I felt we were able to take precautions and everyone was on the same page, but I simply don't make enough to be cannon fodder. Yes, with a kid in college, we can use the money, but Maybe not that much. It really bothers me that "my freedoms" have turned into even individual businesses being unable to set mask requirements.

 

 

[DreamerGirl]

3 minutes ago, DawnM said:

It won't let me read without subscribing.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/09/business/raising-canes-employees/index.html

Short version, corporate employees are now staffing the fast food restaurants which are the bread and butter of the business as they cannot find workers.

[TechWife]

24 minutes ago, Hilltopmom said:

Our county just asked the National Guard to come help staff the nursing homes. 

Is your national guard mainly reservists? If so, this just shifts the problem because they will take health care workers away from their primary jobs. 

[Frances]

Just now, TechWife said:

Is your national guard mainly reservists? If so, this just shifts the problem because they will take health care workers away from their primary jobs. 

At least some of the military working in healthcare here are not actually healthcare workers. They are there to do anything and everything that doesn’t require special training or certifications in order to free up certified staff to do their specialized work. And to help deal with the unfortunately ever increasing number of rude patients and family members. My husband has directly worked with both general and specialized military personnel during the pandemic. Both types of assistance can be useful.

[Terabith]

Customer service jobs have also become harder, because customers, who were never particularly decent to restaurant workers or other essential workers, have become far, far nastier in the pandemic, especially if said customer service workers had to do things like tell customers to put on masks.  Verbal and physical violence towards workers has escalated, and if people have any other alternative, they just don't want to put up with it anymore, especially with threat of a deadly illness hanging over their heads like a sword of Damocles.  

I mean, working in fast food or retail, you always got horrible people.  But I do think the level of vitriol has escalated.  

[TechWife]

13 minutes ago, Frances said:

At least some of the military working in healthcare here are not actually healthcare workers. They are there to do anything and everything that doesn’t require special training or certifications in order to free up certified staff to do their specialized work. And to help deal with the unfortunately ever increasing number of rude patients and family members. My husband has directly worked with both general and specialized military personnel during the pandemic. Both types of assistance can be useful.

As a non-clinical volunteer, I can see where that would be helpful as it’s pretty much what I do. I play with kids so the CCLP’s can do patient education  & help kids during procedures. . My train of thought is that, knowing nursing homes don’t have a lot of staff to begin with & if they need nursing aides, they would probably pull corpsmen. For nurses they would pull nurses. Both are employed as healthcare workers regularly, though I imagine some of the corpsmen may do other jobs. But nurses are nurses & if you’re down a nurse, you need a nurse. It’s been years since I worked with an LTC in my job, hopefully things have changed, but tech/aide to patient and nurse to patient ratios were ridiculously high. 

[DreamerGirl]

6 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Customer service jobs have also become harder, because customers, who were never particularly decent to restaurant workers or other essential workers, have become far, far nastier in the pandemic, especially if said customer service workers had to do things like tell customers to put on masks.  Verbal and physical violence towards workers has escalated, and if people have any other alternative, they just don't want to put up with it anymore, especially with threat of a deadly illness hanging over their heads like a sword of Damocles.  

I mean, working in fast food or retail, you always got horrible people.  But I do think the level of vitriol has escalated.  

There was a video that went viral in TX where a woman threw soup at a cashier's face because the lid had melted as it was so hot. She was offered compensation but during that threw the soup. Luckily it had cooled down but it was spicy and still caused injury. The perp has since been arrested. 

https://nypost.com/2021/11/17/woman-who-hurled-hot-soup-at-restaurant-workers-face-arrested/

The whole "customer is always right" is so bad. 

[gardenmom5]

4 hours ago, JFSinIL said:

My youngest , a first-time teacher (5th grade) this year, wants to get out of Illinois, and has been looking around the PNW.  What district in Oregon needs teachers?

She keeps harping on wanting to move down to Texas and i keep asking WHY???

tbh - stay out of Portland.

What's wrong wtih Texas?  There's A LOT of variety in cities, climate, districts, etc.

[Longtime Lurker]

6 hours ago, TechWife said:

Only if your state expanded Medicaid. My sister was a manager at a Subway. Her ACA policy for 2022 price out at $820 per month. She has lupus. She quit. Now she can get Medicaid if she can’t find a job with benefits. 

Very true. In states that did not expand Medicaid, there is a big hole in coverage. Under 100% FPL you can get Medicaid, over 138% FPL up to 400% FPL (higher this year) you can get a subsidy, between 100% and 138% you get nothing. It is insane.

6 hours ago, Carolina Wren said:

Schools often rely on retired teachers to fill in gaps (long term subs, daily subs, part-time work), and a number of those people have decided it isn't worth the risk. I have a friend who's retired from teaching high school science, and the school has reached out to her a couple of times... NOPE, not a chance, good luck. She's perfectly able (in her mid-70s), but unwilling.

This is exactly the reason my school has had sub shortages. Several retired regulars were no longer willing to come in. It worked out well for me as that is why my job was created (regular sub with guaranteed pay every day at the long term rate), but it is a huge problem for schools right now.

[HS Mom in NC]

23 hours ago, DawnM said:

Yes, but I mean related to this particular situation.   It has always paid crap.   People have always struggled to pay.   But it hasn't been this hard to find childcare overall in the past, what has changed?   That is my question.

Of course there are those centers that have traditionally had long wait list and sign ups in January and the like, but you could usually find somewhere.

That's where retirements come in.  When people retire, jobs open up higher on the employment ladder, and people in the middle move up, leaving people at the very bottom available to apply for lower-mid jobs.  Childcare has historically been entry level work for people with no job experience.  People who used to work in daycare now have experience and can apply one rung up for higher pay in non-childcare work.  

With the cost of living skyrocketing, more people are opting to look into adult education options in hopes of earning more who might not have considered it before.  The consequences of staying at unskilled labor positions (like childcare weirdly is in the US) are more dire than ever before. Anyone with the opportunity to get some form of skills training or useful degree is going so, avoiding being in entry level work for long or by passing it completely. When people have better choices, they don't choose the crappy paying option like childcare, fast food, meat packing plants, etc.  

And fewer people live near grandparents who can offer free childcare, so they're looking for paid daycare options.  Gen X is in early grandparenting stage and the majority can't afford to retire like Boomers and Silent Gen could. Many will work full time until they can't due to mental and/or physical reasons. Childcare slots are harder to come by because demand is up for parents who don't have free Granny care.  People who can't afford one parent at home have to keep looking to keep their jobs and feed themselves and their kids. Student loan debt, healthcare, and housing costs are at historic highs, so the people feeling the pinch on that need childcare and full time employment to keep from sinking deeper in debt. Single parenthood is at an all time high, so childcare is essential for them.  There's no option of a parent staying home because separated parents (divorced and never married) are maintaining 2 separate households.

[HS Mom in NC]

6 hours ago, EKS said:

Exactly. 

They keep saying that women with children aren't reentering the workforce because they are worried that school may be canceled at any moment.  I'd argue that perhaps a good portion of them have actually realized that focusing on family isn't as bad as the dominant culture since the 1970s would have us believe.

I agree that's a factor for some people.  There are benefits that aren't pay/status related, and some people think it's worth the trade off. If a woman grew up in a single parent or dual income household, she might not be aware of some of those non-monetary benefits, and having experienced them for the first time she may like them more than the monetary compensation at this stage of her life. She may stay that way for a shorter period, or she may stay that way long term.

[*****]

Not only is Portland a mess (remember the riots? And the homeless problem is worse than what she may be used to in the midwest).    But rent is MUCH more expensive in Portland (and the west coast) compared to Illinois. 

Edited December 5, 2021 by *****
quoted from wrong person

[Frances]

1 minute ago, ***** said:

Not only is Portland a mess (remember the riots? And the homeless problem is worse than what she may be used to in the midwest).    But rent is MUCH more expensive in Portland (and the west coast) compared to Illinois. 

There is a lot more to OR than just Portland. And young people continue to move to Portland, so there must be something there attracting so many of them. The homeless problem is worse because the weather is far more temperate than the Midwest.
 

Housing is not inexpensive in OR, true, but wages are also generally higher and teachers are generally well compensated with very good benefits. Especially if a young person is not living alone, there are still plenty of places in OR where a teacher could live just fine.

[HS Mom in NC]

Oh!  And I almost forgot.  Many retirees/life long SAHMs who might've otherwise volunteered to be free Granny care for the littles took one look at COVID ripping through nursing homes and prioritized volunteering eldercare to keep Great-Grands out of nursing homes as long as possible.  Others already were, so the amount of free childcare they could manage was little to none.

And free childcare is often cobbled together due to employment issues. My brother and SIL have a 6 year old who just started full time school this fall when it's not online due to COVID.  Up until then, it took the following people to care for her while her parents work full time and her mom has gone through treatment (radiation pill that requires isolation for a week -children can't be in the home with the treated patient) and recovery for thyroid cancer twice so far:

Dad- (employed full time on site as Intel machinist in factory) 2 days
Mom- (employed full time at home as accountant for real estate company ) 1 day
Mom and Dad- 1 day off together on Sundays
Great-Auntie-(employed full time as Kindy school teacher) 1 day a week on Saturday when parents work
Maternal Grandmother- (retired from floral design, limited patience) 1 day a week
Paternal step-grandmother- (employed as special ed tutor part time) 1 day a week

5 caregivers (including parents) for 1 child.  Not many people have that available to them. 

Edited December 5, 2021 by HS Mom in NC

[gardenmom5]

59 minutes ago, ***** said:

Not only is Portland a mess (remember the riots? And the homeless problem is worse than what she may be used to in the midwest).    But rent is MUCH more expensive in Portland (and the west coast) compared to Illinois. 

?why are you quoting me?  That wasn't my post.

[*****]

Gardenmom, sorry, my bad. It was just easier to grab it from the bottom than to go look for it further up.  I deleted from my post, thanks for letting me know.

1 hour ago, Frances said:

Housing is not inexpensive in OR, true, but wages are also generally higher and teachers are generally well compensated with very good benefits. Especially if a young person is not living alone, there are still plenty of places in OR where a teacher could live just fine.

Frances, I get this, it is true. I am using my own experience from living in the midwest and currently seeing housing prices there compared to the PNW where I currently live.  I am very surprised at the difference. True, wages are higher here.  BTW, I have young relatives living in the Portland area and we have visited Portland often over the last 20 years, so I have some background knowledge of the situation in Portland and surrounding areas. I was simply giving a warning that she may be surprised at the cost of living in the midwest compared to Portland and what you may get for your money. Nm

[Reefgazer]

23 hours ago, ***** said:

Society seems to have deemed the caring of the elderly as insignificant as well.  So many assisted living places have unskilled /undereducated workers that in my opinion can be detrimental to the caring and safety of our elderly.  II can't even imagine what is going on in assisted living places anymore, although I am sure there are still some that are better than others.  When my parents were alive, they lived in assisted living, so I have a good idea what goes on there. 

My sister works in an upstate NY nursing home and the lack of staff there is borderline neglectful (and this is considered a decent nursing home, reputation-wise).  She said the staff shortages sky-rocketed to a critical state when the covid vaccine was required and they had a lot of CNAs and RNs just up and quit.

[KungFuPanda]

 

On 12/3/2021 at 11:01 PM, Lori D. said:

In NO way meaning to diminish the sadness and horror of so much loss and pain and suffering from the covid deaths, but statistically, the impact of covid deaths on the work place is perhaps not as great as it might seem from looking at the sheer number of covid cases vs. deaths:

According to these figures, just under 206 million people of the almost 334 million people in the U.S. are of working age (defined as 15-64 years old). According to these figures, just about 80% of covid deaths in the U.S. were over age 65.

That means of the 750,000+ covid deaths, 150,000 were of working age, which is less than 1% of the working population.

I definitely agree that covid is much more responsible for worker decline for other-than-death reasons, which people have listed in this thread.

 

11 hours ago, Bootsie said:

Have you seen any evidence of this?  I haven't seen any documentation in the labor economics literature.

The grandparent doesn't even have to get sick or die for covid to affect that family's childcare and work situation.  MANY families are keeping unvaccinated children away from grandma entirely, or masking and limiting visits.  They want their whole family to make it through this and Nana providing full-day childcare might not serve this goal.  Some families relied on grandparents as back-up care in case the kid couldn't be in daycare for some reason.  This safety net meant Mom didn't have to miss work, but if grandma isn't an option they make different choices.

I always thought that at this point in my life, with my kids graduated from homeschooling, I would return to classroom teaching.  It's just too much work for a thankless, low-paying job.  I've been experimenting with a few jobs since this summer.  My goal is to make what I would teaching, but without all of the stress or unpaid hours of work.  I almost met that goal in friggin retail sales (with some commissioned work).  I switched to an admin job at a landscaping company and I'm making what I would teaching public elementary school.  That's completely ridiculous!  I've been back in the workforce for about a minute.  I'm seriously considering training up for some tech work I could do from home that would earn me a lot more than teaching for a lot less work and stress. 

Teaching is not an attractive job option for me right now and I don't think it's ever going to get there. The pay hasn't kept up with inflation, the ratios are too high, and they keep adding to the workload without removing any tasks.  I'm too old to do life the hard way.  I even know a very young teacher who only taught a few years before the pandemic hit.  During the pandemic, when they were trying to force teachers back into the classroom before vaccinations were available, she switch to a work-at-home tech field.  Her salary doubled and she was safer.

[Reefgazer]

14 hours ago, historically accurate said:

My teen has applied to 15 places - all with signs saying help wanted. She did not get any callbacks. She was finally interviewed by the library I work at because I gave my boss a heads up. I don't think the new internet only applications are actually getting to the hiring managers.

My son applied for his first job that had a "Help Wanted" ad and got hired in 3 days.  But he went in to the store and personally asked if they were hiring before he filled out the application.  I was in a PetSmart with a "Now Hiring" sign in the window and I asked if they were hiring and they said "not right now, we're full, but we'll take your application".  I think going into the specific store and asking is important to weed out wasting time with resume-collectors.