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9 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

Stupid questions:  How do we know what the mortality rate is?  If some people recover, then relapse, if new cases are added each day and many are still sick, how can we know that this is twice or ten times as deadly as most flu viruses?

Someone posted on another thread, or maybe it was this one(!), that 30% of the population will get this virus, and that the 30% figure is probably a low projection.  I don't understand how anyone could estimate that with any real accuracy.

Can anyone explain it to me?  Please use small words.  😊

We don’t know really.  There’s the simple calculation of number of deaths over number of cases but then all kinds of adjustments based on how the cases are counted how thorough the testing is etc.  using the raw data at this point it seems less contagious but more deadly than flu.  

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10 minutes ago, Pen said:

It is basically impossible to know mortality rate for certain during an ongoing epidemic.  They make mathematical models. (Often we don’t really know the mortality even after an epidemic ends. 1918 flu is often described as having killed between 50 and 100 Million people.)

If you go to the Dr John Campbell videos on this and start watching from the start of his coverage of Covid-19 or at least a good ways back, you will catch on, I think, as he is very good in clearly explaining things.  Sometimes he mixes up words, or says something that he then corrects in a later video as he learns more, but basically imo he is doing very well.  

Worldometer.info also has a section about how mortality rates are determined—but not in simple to understand small words.

Thank you.  So, I guess the estimates about the total number of people who are likely to get this thing are also tentative...

8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

We don’t know really.  There’s the simple calculation of number of deaths over number of cases but then all kinds of adjustments based on how the cases are counted how thorough the testing is etc.  using the raw data at this point it seems less contagious but more deadly than flu.  

Thank you.  At least the "less contagious" part is encouraging.  To me.  If it's true.  😊

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I know the person who is in charge of the epidemic response team (or at least the fire department's response team, not sure if there are multiple) for one of the big Houston suburbs. He told me earlier about the Fort Bend case. Also told me the epidemic response team responds to ANY case that has been coded as potential Coronavirus. He responded to one the other day who had totally different symptoms. Asked why it had been coded that way? The man had spoken to an Asian person recently. *SPOKEN* 🤦‍♀️ He relayed this to the dispatcher, and apparently the dispatcher thought it was valid?

He also said that they can't get enough masks for their first responders. They will order masks and get nothing or `1/3 of what they ordered. They don't have enough masks to fit test the responders for them. It was the one aspect he seemed very concerned about. 

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8 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

Thank you.  So, I guess the estimates about the total number of people who are likely to get this thing are also tentative...

 

Correct.  And that is even harder to predict because it depends hugely on human behavior.  

If humans act more wisely than has been happening so far with this virus, if they don’t try to cover up, if they do testing, if they use excellent sanitation practices (thorough hand washing and the like), if they use social distancing, it could be less bad than predicted . 

If people continue to congregate closely, to travel widely etc , it could be much worse. 

And If the virus mutates several times, who knows what will happen. 

 

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36 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

But muscle aches has been mentioned as a symptom by some people describing their experience?

 

Yes.   I have definitely seen that. Might have been in the Lancet. 

And probably sometimes “cold” like symptoms also which could be congestion has been described. 

56 minutes ago, Arcadia said:


I am at the library right now. I figured my risk of being in the library is similar to going to the supermarkets.

 

Might depend on your library, how well it cleans, whether people (like homeless young adults) traveling along the up and down the west coast train / bus corridor use it as a fairly safe comfortable and free place to hang out... etc. 

The main branch of Eugene library is definitely a rest stop for an itinerant population of bus and train hoppers who could easily transport virus from Seattle outbreak area .   Some of the other branches not so much hub spots for people moving about state to state and city to city. 

People don’t really hang out in supermarkets in that same way. 

8 minutes ago, Sk8ermaiden said:

I know the person who is in charge of the epidemic response team (or at least the fire department's response team, not sure if there are multiple) for one of the big Houston suburbs. He told me earlier about the Fort Bend case. Also told me the epidemic response team responds to ANY case that has been coded as potential Coronavirus. He responded to one the other day who had totally different symptoms. Asked why it had been coded that way? The man had spoken to an Asian person recently. *SPOKEN* 🤦‍♀️ He relayed this to the dispatcher, and apparently the dispatcher thought it was valid?

He also said that they can't get enough masks for their first responders. They will order masks and get nothing or `1/3 of what they ordered. They don't have enough masks to fit test the responders for them. It was the one aspect he seemed very concerned about. 

 

@Matryoshka  I suggest you read the above! Maybe you need a first responders epidemic response team in order to get your son tested? 

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8 minutes ago, Pen said:

Might depend on your library, how well it cleans, whether people (like homeless young adults) traveling along the up and down the west coast train / bus corridor use it as a fairly safe comfortable and free place to hang out... etc. 


The one I was at is okay. The one with homeless people (including their own students) is SJSU library.

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24 minutes ago, Pen said:

Correct.  And that is even harder to predict because it depends hugely on human behavior.  

If humans act more wisely than has been happening so far with this virus, if they don’t try to cover up, if they do testing, if they use excellent sanitation practices (thorough hand washing and the like), if they use social distancing, it could be less bad than predicted . 

If people continue to congregate closely, to travel widely etc , it could be much worse. 

And If the virus mutates several times, who knows what will happen. 

I remain hopeful.  Thank you, Pen.  😊

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@Quill
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/business/starbucks-coronavirus/index.html

“Starbucks (SBUX)on Wednesday announced it is temporarily suspending the use of personal cups and tumblers at its stores to help prevent the spread of coronavirus. 

EVP Rossann Williams said the company will continue to honor its 10-cent discount for anyone who brings in a personal cup or tumbler for coffee, even though customers can't use them.

"We are optimistic this will be a temporary situation," Williams said in an open letter posted on the company's website.

Starbucks said it is also increasing the number of cleanings at all its company-operated stores and suspending business-related air travel, both domestic and international, for the rest of March according to Williams.”
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@Pen @SeaConquest

Long news article but a good read

Wuhan doctor recounts fears and hope at COVID-19 frontline

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-wuhan-virus-frontline-doctor-fear-coronavirus-china-12504604

“When 43-year-old Ma was first summoned to a sports stadium converted into a medical facility on Feb 4, it was a virtual construction site with electrical wiring and beds still being installed.

Separated from his wife and young child who had returned to eastern Shandong province for Chinese New Year, Ma said he felt "scared and anxious" when the call from the jury-rigged Wuchang hospital came in the middle of the night.

But the situation has slowly improved, with the number of patients receiving treatment in the improvised hospital declining from a high of 760 in mid-February to 320 earlier this week.

"We had 30-40 patients being discharged per day, but the number of patients admitted was only a dozen or so. This was when the whole situation changed for us," Ma, who is the hospital's deputy director, told AFP in a video call from Wuhan.

"Now, we admit very few new patients and about three to four recovered patients are discharged each day."

The situation Ma described tallies with officials' accounts of a slowdown in new infections in Wuhan, an industrial city of 11 million people where the virus is believed to have emerged at a market that sold wild animals.

It was not always like this.

AFP saw people standing in line for hours to see doctors in Wuhan's hospitals during the first weeks of the crisis, when the facilities lacked enough beds for the thousands of new patients.

CONDITIONS "WERE QUITE BAD"

Hastily converted from sports stadiums, schools and cultural venues, Wuhan's 16 makeshift "ark" hospitals were designed to ease the burden on the city's overstretched healthcare system.

But in the early stages of the outbreak, they also suffered from the same widespread shortages of medical protective supplies as the city's designated hospitals, Ma said.

Ma Yonggang was called up in the middle of the night to help staff a makeshift hospital treating coronavirus patients

The hospitals offer basic treatment and diagnosis for patients with mild to moderate symptoms, as well as simple recreational facilities.

"When the hospital was opened, the facilities were only for controlling the outbreak, so the living conditions for patients and medical staff ... were quite bad," he said in the interview arranged by the State Council's information office.

"Now, the conditions have improved a lot, for example now we have patient exercise areas and bathrooms, and we have indoor heating and catering services."

Ma admitted that conditions fell short of patients' expectations and those hoping for small rooms to themselves were not prepared for the open-plan layout of the makeshift hospital.

"Once they arrived, they realised that there were several patients in a large open room and began to doubt whether they could be treated successfully," he said.”

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Trying to link and quote with out getting logged out— below is WHO in the mortality rate— was this already posted?

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/home.aspx

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 3 March 2020

 

[snip...]

The second major difference is that COVID-19 causes more severe disease than seasonal influenza.

While many people globally have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, COVID-19 is a new virus to which no one has immunity. That means more people are susceptible to infection, and some will suffer severe disease. 

Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.

[snip]

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https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-stores-facing-iphone-replacement-shortage-amid-coronavirus-report-2020-3

“Apple has warned its retail store employees that it is facing a shortage of replacement iPhones, Bloombergreported on Wednesday.

Retail staffers received an email notifying them that the devices, which are used to replace customers' phones when they're too badly damaged to fix easily, will be in limited supply for several weeks, according to Bloomberg. Employees at several stores also told Bloomberg they were running low on some individual replacement parts.

Workers were instructed instead to offer customers loaner devices or mail out replacement devices when they become available, Bloomberg reported.

Apple's internal note is the latest sign that the coronavirus outbreak is having a material impact on its business, and one of the first times Apple customers will be directly affected by the situation.”

 

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My MIL’s Iphone died last weekend.  She got a new battery and it didn’t help.  It was really old; I think a 4s.  She couldn’t get a new phone because all the s models are made in Wuhan.  
ETA:  A friend sold her one of his old phones.  

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https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/medical-staff-shortages-expected-for-virus-that-can-t-be-contained-20200305-p54777.html
 

we are unlikely to be able to contain this virus and we will face medical staff shortages is the official line now.  What bugs me most is that this lady was being patronising and reassuring about the low risk to the community two to three weeks ago, and at the time watching her I felt like she was lying and the facts didn’t back her up and the protocols in place weren’t going to be enough.  Anyway... I guess that’s politics.

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I am finally seeing cancelation of kid related public events in my area which has several reported cases of coronavirus. We got cancelation notices and money refunded for 3 events that my son was scheduled to participate in the coming weeks. This is a big change in attitude because all I encountered was people shrugging when I asked about canceling events even until 2 days ago. I also heard that many local schools are tying up with online course providers just in case of closures.

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According to 9news in Australia there are 15 COVID19 cases in the Grand Princess

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-latest-news-australians-grand-princess-cruise-ship-san-francisco/c999f2c8-8f93-4859-8645-ea86ee91b678

the language is slightly vague and I haven’t seen that number confirmed elsewhere so would view it with caution but likely correct.

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Sporting events are starting to be affected.  Chicago State is cancelling basketball games to avoid fans congregating amid coornavirus fears  Also, all Italian sports will be played without fans.  

Maybe more will follow now that some places are taking that first step.

We have a swim meet coming up at the end of March.  I’ve already been thinking about how packed the parents are in the stands during these meets, not to mention all the swimmers.  I guess we will make a decision as we get closer to the date.

 

 

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2 hours ago, StellaM said:

Not enough masks for GPs and other HCP's in AU 😞

I'm quite worried about dd. She's working with palliative patients, who I can only assume are susceptible. 

Shelves even barer today - no paper products, no flour, no pasta, no tinned tomatoes, not much oil. People are hoarding and it's not OK. 

I've decided that Sydney will never survive the apocalypse. We underprepare, and then we panic, and we basically destroy civilization in about a week. Some guy got tasered today in a loo roll fight. I'm pretty over coronavirus. @Pen, how's the meditation coming along? We need this bug to live in peace with us!

 

I cannot believe all the fighting over toilet paper. 

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13 hours ago, Chris in VA said:

I am leaving Israel for the States on Saturday. My dear friend's brain tumor means I *need* to see her sooner than our planned August furlough/vacation. I am also going to Orlando to see my parents. 

I have a knot in my stomach at the thought of being denied reentry into Israel; who knows how COVID-19 will explode in the US in the next 3 weeks. 

Also, my elderly mom currently has a cold that she fears has turned into bronchitis. I am worried it might be COVID-19,  I am worried dd, who is visiting her Sunday (she is at a conference in Orlando) will catch whatever Mom has, and I am worried I will catch it when I see her 16th Mar, and get sick and not be able to see my friend. 

I could use some prayers. I don't travel alone well and this is going to be a hella emotional trip. 

 

Thinking of you, Chris.  You are in such a difficult situation and I so hope everyone stays healthy.  And I really hope that you can have a good visit with your friend, at least.

We are also in Israel and the Health Ministry is taking this very, very seriously.  In addition to the expanded travel restrictions, all gatherings over 5000 people are banned and cities are cancelling events (including for the Purim holiday next week) left and right.  My kids are all in school here and yesterday my elementary schoolers came home with instructions to practice logging into a distance learning site.  

 

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6 minutes ago, JennyD said:

 

Thinking of you, Chris.  You are in such a difficult situation and I so hope everyone stays healthy.  And I really hope that you can have a good visit with your friend, at least.

We are also in Israel and the Health Ministry is taking this very, very seriously.  In addition to the expanded travel restrictions, all gatherings over 5000 people are banned and cities are cancelling events (including for the Purim holiday next week) left and right.  My kids are all in school here and yesterday my elementary schoolers came home with instructions to practice logging into a distance learning site.  

 

Hi Jenny--yeah, and Yael linked a J Post article (we got on our phones) that says gatherings over 100 people are disallowed if anyone has travelled abroad in the last two weeks. It is going to devastate our pilgrimmages. 

(Jenny and I got together last week--she's lovely! So nice to meet hivers irl!😁♥️)

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1 minute ago, Chris in VA said:

Hi Jenny--yeah, and Yael linked a J Post article (we got on our phones) that says gatherings over 100 people are disallowed if anyone has travelled abroad in the last two weeks. It is hoing to devastate our pilgrimmages. 

(Jenny and I got together last week--she's lovely! So nice to meet hivers irl!😁♥️)

Oh wow, I had seen that rule about the 100 people, and I was wondering how the new travel restrictions might affect your college, but I didn't put those two things together.  Oy.  

And Chris is delightful too!  Not that everyone here doesn't already know that, of course 🙂This board is such an amazing resource, in so many ways.

 

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5 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Correct.  And that is even harder to predict because it depends hugely on human behavior.  

If humans act more wisely than has been happening so far with this virus, if they don’t try to cover up, if they do testing, if they use excellent sanitation practices (thorough hand washing and the like), if they use social distancing, it could be less bad than predicted . 

If people continue to congregate closely, to travel widely etc , it could be much worse. 

And If the virus mutates several times, who knows what will happen.

Exactly. So much is out of our hands, but the little bits that are in our control can actually matter.

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7 hours ago, Terabith said:

For some reason, it just occurred to me that library books could be fomites.  I was thinking using the library and the self check out was pretty low risk but maybe not?  Man, this sucks. 

 

My daughter works at the library and it makes me very nervous.  She's been talking about quitting due to having too much schoolwork this semester (she's full time DE) and I wish she had done it sooner because now she'll be working through March even if she gives notice soon.  She also attends two different colleges as a DE student so she's exposed to so many germs.  

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A new presumptive case has me on edge. My hope has been that this virus goes slow enough to get my foster/guardianship situation handled before it can be impacted. Right now, it still might be more than 2 weeks for that to happen. I’m going to lose my mind if quarantines or contact tracing holds things up. Relatives, judges, clerks, security, social workers, foster families, classmates, teachers... too many people involved for me to feel comfortable right now.

 

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5 hours ago, Arcadia said:

@Quill
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/04/business/starbucks-coronavirus/index.html

“Starbucks (SBUX)on Wednesday announced it is temporarily suspending the use of personal cups and tumblers at its stores to help prevent the spread of coronavirus. 

EVP Rossann Williams said the company will continue to honor its 10-cent discount for anyone who brings in a personal cup or tumbler for coffee, even though customers can't use them.

"We are optimistic this will be a temporary situation," Williams said in an open letter posted on the company's website.

Starbucks said it is also increasing the number of cleanings at all its company-operated stores and suspending business-related air travel, both domestic and international, for the rest of March according to Williams.”

Thanks for tagging me on that. That’s a big bummer. 

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17 minutes ago, Kassia said:

 

My daughter works at the library and it makes me very nervous.  She's been talking about quitting due to having too much schoolwork this semester (she's full time DE) and I wish she had done it sooner because now she'll be working through March even if she gives notice soon.  She also attends two different colleges as a DE student so she's exposed to so many germs.  

Both of my boys volunteer at the library each week until sometime in May.  They did all last school year too.  I’m nervous for them.  We always talk about not touching their faces with their hands while they are there and they wash their hands before they leave and again when they get home.  But books are so germy.  They do have the free Internet and Wifi there, but it is not overly crowded during the times they work.

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Great news: the South By Southwest music festival will go on, packing people from all over the country into crowded venues for a week, because our mayor tells us "there's no evidence cancelling SXSW makes us richer safer."

Our Interim Health Authority Spokesman says:

“We are also concerned because SXSW has been so engaged in helping us mitigate, that if we shut it down people will come to this community anyway, they are going to go to restaurants and public gatherings anyway, but we wont have the messaging, we wont have the hand sanitizer, we won’t have the additional mitigation steps SXSW has really been partners with us on.”

(Apple, Amazon, TikTok, Facebook, and Intel, unaccountably unconvinced, have pulled out of SXSW.)

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7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

So, I'm wondering if he was fully recovered, or did it come back? It says he started feeling ill again 2 days after release, which makes me think he was still sick...

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Congress Plans if coronavirus hits the hill:

https://www.theeagle.com/news/national/what-would-congress-do-if-the-capitol-got-hit-by/article_0024dbea-11e7-5e18-9ccb-0921d4722458.html

"Hoyer said there are no plans in place that would allow the House to legislate remotely if members fall ill with COVID-19 and social distancing measures are put in place.

“We have no plans at this point in time, and we are hopeful, of course, that everybody here at the Capitol remains coronavirus-free,” Hoyer said in an interview Wednesday."

Wow, can you say, "head in the sand?" I presume brighter minds are meeting to make plans & this guy just doesn't know about them. It does seem that so many decisions are reactive & not proactive.

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There is a private school in Rappahannock, VA that is closed until next week.  Some students took a school trip to Italy and, not long after they got there, heard about the coronavirus.  They changed plans and went different places ending up in Switzerland.  The article didn't say specifically how long they were in Italy, but said it was one of the hard hit areas.

They came back March 3rd.  They landed in NJ and were not checked out by anybody or quarantined.

This school is 45 minutes from me.  Not feeling very confident in any of our airports in doing a good job, if any, screening.

Just a matter of time :-(...

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I feel as though our government isn't actually doing preemptive quarantining...it's all reactive. 😣

14 minutes ago, mlktwins said:

There is a private school in Rappahannock, VA that is closed until next week.  Some students took a school trip to Italy and, not long after they got there, heard about the coronavirus.  They changed plans and went different places ending up in Switzerland.  The article didn't say specifically how long they were in Italy, but said it was one of the hard hit areas.

They came back March 3rd.  They landed in NJ and were not checked out by anybody or quarantined.

This school is 45 minutes from me.  Not feeling very confident in any of our airports in doing a good job, if any, screening.

Just a matter of time :-(...

 

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30 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Congress Plans if coronavirus hits the hill:

https://www.theeagle.com/news/national/what-would-congress-do-if-the-capitol-got-hit-by/article_0024dbea-11e7-5e18-9ccb-0921d4722458.html

"Hoyer said there are no plans in place that would allow the House to legislate remotely if members fall ill with COVID-19 and social distancing measures are put in place.

“We have no plans at this point in time, and we are hopeful, of course, that everybody here at the Capitol remains coronavirus-free,” Hoyer said in an interview Wednesday."

Wow, can you say, "head in the sand?" I presume brighter minds are meeting to make plans & this guy just doesn't know about them. It does seem that so many decisions are reactive & not proactive.

Are you sure this isn't one of those sarcastic articles, like what The Onion puts out????

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6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Facebook said that a worker in the company’s Seattle offices tested positive for the coronavirus, making it the second major tech company in the city to be affected by the outbreak
NYtimes tweet behind a paywall for me

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-facebook/amazon-facebook-ask-seattle-employees-to-work-from-home-over-coronavirus-fears-idUSKBN20S0MZ

“(Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) and Facebook Inc (FB.O) on Thursday joined Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) in recommending employees in the Seattle area to work from home after several people in the region were infected with the coronavirus. 

Seattle in Washington state has been most affected by the virus in the United States. Ten people have died out of 39 cases of infections through community transmission of the virus. 

Amazon, which is headquartered in Seattle, recommended employees in the area to work from home through the end of the month, after an employee tested positive for the coronavirus on Tuesday. 

The employee worked at Amazon’s South Lake Union office complex in Seattle. Two other company employees in Milan, Italy, were also infected. 

Facebook said on Thursday a contractor at its Seattle office was diagnosed with the coronavirus and that it would shut the location until March 9. 

“A contractor based in our Stadium East office has been diagnosed with the COVID-19,” a company spokeswoman said in an emailed statement. 

The companies’ work from home recommendation will affect more than 100,000 people in the Seattle area, as both Microsoft and Amazon employ over 50,000 each. Facebook has more than 5,000 employees in the area. 

Seattle health authorities have urged herecompanies to allow their employees to work from home as much as possible, stagger shifts to ease commuter congestion on public transportation and avoid large work-related gatherings.”

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3 hours ago, Carrie12345 said:

Exactly. So much is out of our hands, but the little bits that are in our control can actually matter.

 

Yes! Even if others are doing many things that promote spread, we can still do our part to help with slowing.

Also, I think if we do much more of what @Quill described where a few people she encountered went ahead and wiped down a seat in public or whatever things like that might be done, it helps others who are wanting to do things, but afraid of group censure.  

When we think “gee, nobody is talking about it” irl situations, are we? Would an outside observer group us with the nobody is talking about it and assume we aren’t concerned either?

 

 

7 hours ago, mathnerd said:

I am finally seeing cancelation of kid related public events in my area which has several reported cases of coronavirus. We got cancelation notices and money refunded for 3 events that my son was scheduled to participate in the coming weeks. This is a big change in attitude because all I encountered was people shrugging when I asked about canceling events even until 2 days ago. I also heard that many local schools are tying up with online course providers just in case of closures.

 

I am glad to hear that.  I haven’t seen or heard of any irl yet.  (no reported cases yet, 1 negative test, but located right along an alternate to I5 route and not all that far from I5 corridor itself) 

 

6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There seems to be a few things popping up on twitter about Shenzhen as well as that study from there.  Nothing official but enough to make me wonder.

 

? What ?    Btw I’m catching up this Morning and group quoted a number of posts to help catch up, not because they are related to a single thought 

6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

According to 9news in Australia there are 15 COVID19 cases in the Grand Princess

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-latest-news-australians-grand-princess-cruise-ship-san-francisco/c999f2c8-8f93-4859-8645-ea86ee91b678

the language is slightly vague and I haven’t seen that number confirmed elsewhere so would view it with caution but likely correct.

 

Uh oh.  Hope it gets handled better than DP

4 hours ago, JennyD said:

 

Thinking of you, Chris.  You are in such a difficult situation and I so hope everyone stays healthy.  And I really hope that you can have a good visit with your friend, at least.

We are also in Israel and the Health Ministry is taking this very, very seriously.  In addition to the expanded travel restrictions, all gatherings over 5000 people are banned and cities are cancelling events (including for the Purim holiday next week) left and right.  My kids are all in school here and yesterday my elementary schoolers came home with instructions to practice logging into a distance learning site.  

 

 

Thinking of all of you.  

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

All school and universities in Iran will be closed for a month.

 

I am glad to hear that.

 Better late than never probably?

or does it send a lot of infected carriers from  university distributing illness to wherever they go?

or the reverse? Currently well ones going elsewhere and becoming new carriers when they head ... wherever. ?

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