wuhan - coronavirus

[Pen]

Just now, Lawyer&Mom said:

“BID” means twice a day.  I had to look it up. 

 

I added that in an edit after realizing people might not know.  Typically BID is twice per day well separated out, so morning and night. Not 8am and noon.  Here presumptively would be done because neither stay in system long. 

Also Note that they are specified as being together not just each Alone at some point in day  and presumptively recommendations are for on top of a regular typical diet.  

 

[maize]

33 minutes ago, Plum said:

See now that's why I shouldn't dip my toe into places out of my wheelhouse. 🤭 Thanks hive. 

Question: In an ideal world, how would one go about a study that would capture all of the important data? What is the important data? 

Some of the important data isn't possible to capture yet, such as what percentage of people develop long term health problems after infection.

We won't have access to long term data until the virus has been around long term.

Erring on the side of caution makes sense to me.

[Pen]

I just lined up current MATH and Zelenko prophylaxis protocols to compare them:

 

[Paige]

I read about melatonin early on. It was a theoretical article and suggested something like kids have way more melatonin than adults and perhaps there was a correlation to why kids are less affected. Melatonin supposedly naturally decreases in you with age and affects some pathway that they suspected the virus may be using. But this was way back in March and I don't know if the newer evidence has confirmed the theory or not. I can't find the old article. 

Edited September 6, 2020 by Paige

[maize]

One article on melatonin

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211589/

[Terabith]

I have a friend who is a family practice doctor.  Her husband is an ER doctor.  They have two sets of twins, ages 13 and 8.  They are using the MATH protocol for prophylaxis.  But their 13 year olds apparently ate 60 vitamin D gummies between the two of them (5,000 IU each), and their 8 year old ate a bunch of melatonin gummies.  (I don't know what the kids, especially the 13 year olds were thinking.  I would not have expected kids that age to be so idiotic.)  

So, I guess the moral of the story is to not get gummies if you put your kids on MATH protocol.  

[Pen]

48 minutes ago, Seasider too said:

Is the melatonin new? What is its purpose? Besides better sleep (which I do see as important because of the corresponding cortisol level issue).

 

Melatonin Not new.  

There is a Whole DrBeen (Mobeen Syed, MD - does continuing medical education in addition to being a practicing physician in CA) video that explains.  Made back a few months when he covered all recommendations in MATH plus iirc his own ideas that were the “plus” on MATH+ .

 I  know many people Don’t like spending the time for a video, but it’s way beyond what I can explain here and the drawings are especially helpful. 

 

@Terabith

I don’t think the MATH protocol levels are meant for children! - one needs to research separately re kids.  

 Also I saw a more in depth comment from Paul Marik MD to go down to 30 mg zinc after a few days.  Even for adults. And the 75 mg zinc may have been an amount especially suited to adult men HCW wearing PPE ( zinc is lost in sweat and ejaculation afaik).

And vitamins/supplements  normally say on them to keep out of reach of children afaik.  

Though one would think 13yo would be more sensible. ( Have their soccer skills improved?) 

 

 

[Terabith]

Just now, Pen said:

@Terabith

I don’t think the MATH protocol levels are meant for children! - one needs to research separately re kids.  

 Also I saw a more in depth comment from Paul Marik MD to go down to 30 mg zinc after a few days.  Even for adults. And the 75 mg zinc may have been an amount especially suited to adult men HCW wearing PPE ( zinc is lost in sweat and ejaculation afaik).

And vitamins/supplements  normally say on them to keep out of reach of children afaik.  

Though one would think 13yo would be more sensible. ( Have their soccer skills improved?) 

 

 

I mean, their parents are both doctors, so I assume they did their research.  I'm not sure what dosages of everything they were taking.  I think it was mostly just vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, and melatonin.  Their parents are sensible people.  The older kids at least are fairly close to adult size.  And, while I kept vitamins and supplements out of reach of my kids when they were little, by the time they were in mid elementary school, my kids had free access to most medications.  My younger kid has been managing her own medications since about 8.  I don't think anyone would have anticipated 13 year olds overdosing. 

Dunno about their soccer skills.  They are pretty serious athletes to begin with.  I think their mom's plan was to take them for blood draws to check levels and use giant needles, both to make sure they are okay physically and also as an adverse consequence.  

[Bambam]

Never mind - I should have kept reading - I see others asked about melatonin and some have answered. 

Edited September 6, 2020 by Bambam

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 hour ago, Terabith said:

I mean, their parents are both doctors, so I assume they did their research.  I'm not sure what dosages of everything they were taking.  I think it was mostly just vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, and melatonin.  Their parents are sensible people.  The older kids at least are fairly close to adult size.  And, while I kept vitamins and supplements out of reach of my kids when they were little, by the time they were in mid elementary school, my kids had free access to most medications.  My younger kid has been managing her own medications since about 8.  I don't think anyone would have anticipated 13 year olds overdosing. 

Dunno about their soccer skills.  They are pretty serious athletes to begin with.  I think their mom's plan was to take them for blood draws to check levels and use giant needles, both to make sure they are okay physically and also as an adverse consequence.  

Using big needles as punishment is abuse.   Needle size should depend in size of veins period. (I use pediatric needles for blood draws for this reason. )

60 x 5000 iu is 300,000 iu. Vitamin D is stored in the fat.  Treatment for vitamin d toxicity:  https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/nutrition-and-healthy-eating/expert-answers/vitamin-d-toxicity/faq-20058108

[Pen]

3 hours ago, Terabith said:

I have a friend who is a family practice doctor.  Her husband is an ER doctor.  They have two sets of twins, ages 13 and 8.  They are using the MATH protocol for prophylaxis.  But their 13 year olds apparently ate 60 vitamin D gummies between the two of them (5,000 IU each), and their 8 year old ate a bunch of melatonin gummies.  (I don't know what the kids, especially the 13 year olds were thinking.  I would not have expected kids that age to be so idiotic.)  

So, I guess the moral of the story is to not get gummies if you put your kids on MATH protocol.  

 

3 hours ago, Terabith said:

I mean, their parents are both doctors, so I assume they did their research.  I'm not sure what dosages of everything they were taking.  I think it was mostly just vitamin C, vitamin D, zinc, and melatonin. 

 

This family may have done its research, but in addition to a moral of story to watch out for kids and gummies, it may not be correct to put kid in MATH protocol. 

 

Quote

 

Their parents are sensible people.  The older kids at least are fairly close to adult size.  And, while I kept vitamins and supplements out of reach of my kids when they were little, by the time they were in mid elementary school, my kids had free access to most medications.  My younger kid has been managing her own medications since about 8.  I don't think anyone would have anticipated 13 year olds overdosing. 

 

I would tend to agree with that.

 

But ...

 

Quote

Dunno about their soccer skills.  They are pretty serious athletes to begin with. 

 

The the reason I asked - I think the dose used was 200k IU.  

“A single mega dose of vitamin D3 improves selected physical variables in vitamin D insufficient young amateur soccer players: a randomized controlled trial.”

Appl Physiol Nutr Metab. 2019 Oct 9. doi: 10.1139/apnm-2019-0525.

 

 

Quote

I think their mom's plan was to take them for blood draws to check levels and use giant needles, both to make sure they are okay physically and also as an adverse consequence.  

 

Getting their levels seems like an excellent idea. 

But

Giant needles sounds mean.  😞 

 

ETA- it would be interesting to know what their levels actually are after a megadose presumably following a 5000 IU single daily gummy for awhile. 

Edited September 6, 2020 by Pen

[Melissa in Australia]

10 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Well, tell her not to worry, because it seems according to many that the lockdowns and restrictions and perhaps the virus itself will disappear after the American Presidntial election. Now....why Australia is taking precautions based on an American hoax i haven't seen explained.......sigh 

In all serious, I'm so sorry. I hope things change soon. 

Well my Dd must have been looking at some other conspiracy theory because she thinks it is a secret ploy for Asians to buy up the houses.........

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Using big needles as punishment is abuse.   Needle size should depend in size of veins period. (I use pediatric needles for blood draws for this reason. )

60 x 5000 iu is 300,000 iu. Vitamin D is stored in the fat.  Treatment for vitamin d toxicity: https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/nutrition-and-healthy-eating/expert-answers/vitamin-d-toxicity/faq-20058108

 

Agree with you about the big needles.

Also “ consequences “ likely to be associated with blood draw and to cause fear of blood draw  rather than with eating gummies. 

 

Personally, I would want to make sure the other fat soluble K A E vitamins got some good balance, particularly K2 which helps protect against problems from high D.  (Studies on this exist.) 

However,  bolus doses of D are deliberately used as a strategy for maintaining levels.  (Not found to be as effective as lower doses daily or weekly use, however.) 

 

If the twins shared the gummies somewhat evenly they are probably not hugely over this study of bolus doses in preschoolers, which was not sufficient amount for almost half the preschoolers in the study to maintain adequate levels for a whole season, and the 13yo twins are probably closer to adult size . 

 

“Two oral boluses of 100,000 IU vitamin D_3,once in the fall and once in the winter, rapidly, safely, and significantly raises overall serum vitamin D metabolites. However, it is sufficient to maintain 25OHD ≥ 75 nmol/L throughout 7 months in only slightly more than half of participants.Feb 18, 2019

 

 

Impact of two oral doses of 100,000 IU of vitamin D 3 in preschoolers

”

 

The Mayo article describes toxicity from daily intake of 60,000 IU for months, which is a lot more than it sounds like @Terabith’s friends’ kids took. 

Edited September 6, 2020 by Pen

[Terabith]

I suspect mom was joking about the big needles.  She was just pretty freaked out and also lividly angry.  Which honestly seems pretty fair.  

Edited September 6, 2020 by Terabith

[Lawyer&Mom]

5 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

Reuters' article

Apparently, Australia expects a vaccine by January. 

 

They expect to receive their doses by January.  But countries are pre-ordering.  We don’t know that the vaccines will be cleared for use by January.  (But that would be great!)

[Ausmumof3]

53 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

Reuters' article

Apparently, Australia expects a vaccine by January. 

 

Apparently the government expects is but various experts have signed a statement saying this is too optimistic and they are worried safety will be short circuited 

https://apple.news/AZMA4D_Q3SFO2qWNDUrViow

Edited September 7, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

Kind of related question.  Are most negative vaccine reactions or consequences seen in the short term or do some manifest over a period of months or years?

[Wheres Toto]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Kind of related question.  Are most negative vaccine reactions or consequences seen in the short term or do some manifest over a period of months or years?

Both.    The ones that get the most attention tend to be immediate reactions since those are the ones easiest to trace back to the vaccine.   Some vaccines have shown signs of causing autoimmune issues, but they are harder to trace back.   Some vaccines (or medications in general) get released with Phase IV studies being done after release to look for long-term side effects if there's some reason to suspect they may occur.

[RootAnn]

Chinese University researchers in Hong Kong show stool samples are a safe & good way to test for covid-19. Also that they show infections even when airways test negative & people have no gut symptoms.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-07/covid-19-patients-may-have-prolonged-gut-infection-study-finds

I haven't seen yet where they've studied the fecal-oral transmission route to confirm it, but that remains a theory that has merit and something to consider for those who don't know where they got infected.

[Pen]

10 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently the government expects is but various experts have signed a statement saying this is too optimistic and they are worried safety will be short circuited 

https://apple.news/AZMA4D_Q3SFO2qWNDUrViow

 

it seems potentially risky to consider combining two vaccines  - especially where one is novel type and the other is a relatively new type.  I guess that’s legal to do with out trials of the safety of the combo. But I wonder what could happen from interactions. Or different ways of stimulating immune system.  I’d want combo itself well tested .  

 

 

“

Experts say there is potential for the two vaccines to be combined in what is known as "prime boosting".    “

 

 

It also sounded like Au wants to hold up the AstraZeneca vaccine, even if it’s ready first, wanting its own UQueensland one to be ready for distribution at same time.

I guess that will give more time potentially to watch how the AZ one does in other places if they get it elsewhere before AU.   

 

 

“The Prime Minister said the inclusion of the UQ vaccine candidate and Melbourne-based firm CSL as manufacturing partner was a key part of its "sovereign vaccine plan".

"Because this vaccine plan and the agreements that are supporting it [are] giving us the capacity to not just produce the vaccine here in Australia [with the AstraZeneca vaccine, through CSL], but also to develop and produce the UQ vaccine," he said. 

"So that is giving us a sovereign capacity to get Australians what they will need should both of those vaccines prove successful as they go through their trials."  “

 

 

[Pen]

 

China seems to be developing/using “traditional” attenuated vaccines.  

[ktgrok]

3 hours ago, RootAnn said:

Chinese University researchers in Hong Kong show stool samples are a safe & good way to test for covid-19. Also that they show infections even when airways test negative & people have no gut symptoms.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-07/covid-19-patients-may-have-prolonged-gut-infection-study-finds

I haven't seen yet where they've studied the fecal-oral transmission route to confirm it, but that remains a theory that has merit and something to consider for those who don't know where they got infected.

I've been asking/talking about this for months and months and I'm surprised it still isn't a main topic of discussion. From what I read the virus is inactivated by low enough stomach ph but people taking antacids, people with naturally lower levels of stomach acid, etc may be susceptible to oral transmission - be that fecal or otherwise. And the research I found was that even eating a large meal would dilute the stomach acid enough to allow the virus to survive. 

Which is why we only eat hot take out, things we can heat up to kill the virus. And why I'm concerned about public restrooms - not only are people in that confined space breathing out virus, but also the feces gets aerosolized for us to breathe in. Especially since most public toilets don't have lids to close when flushing. 

Edited September 7, 2020 by Ktgrok

[ktgrok]

This is really good news - means more kids getting tested (as I'm not the only one that doesn't want to make a kid go through the nasal swab) and testing made possible for people like me with messed up septums. (my septum is Z shaped - there is no way to get a swab to the right place )

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200904/study-backs-use-of-saliva-covid-test#1

Edited September 7, 2020 by Ktgrok

[Pen]

 

Vitamin D - Clinical Trial 

https://youtu.be/V8Ks9fUh2k8

https://youtu.be/V8Ks9fUh2k8

 

[Pen]

 

Vitamin D  - study in writing for those who want the original and/or don’t like videos:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960076020302764

 

(this study actually used both D and HCQ ...  In that sense, it’s  somewhat like Dr Zelenko approach as he had already made sure his patients had had good vitamin D levels in his practice before Covid-19 had hit his Community.  So his protocol has been  both together with base of good D level.   However this is for patients already admitted to hospital, not prophylaxis use.     IMO best would be a prophylaxis cocktail to decrease likelihood of needing hospital in first place.) 

 

 

Edited September 7, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

5 hours ago, Pen said:

 

it seems potentially risky to consider combining two vaccines  - especially where one is novel type and the other is a relatively new type.  I guess that’s legal to do with out trials of the safety of the combo. But I wonder what could happen from interactions. Or different ways of stimulating immune system.  I’d want combo itself well tested .  

 

 

“

Experts say there is potential for the two vaccines to be combined in what is known as "prime boosting".    “

 

 

It also sounded like Au wants to hold up the AstraZeneca vaccine, even if it’s ready first, wanting its own UQueensland one to be ready for distribution at same time.

I guess that will give more time potentially to watch how the AZ one does in other places if they get it elsewhere before AU.   

 

 

“The Prime Minister said the inclusion of the UQ vaccine candidate and Melbourne-based firm CSL as manufacturing partner was a key part of its "sovereign vaccine plan".

"Because this vaccine plan and the agreements that are supporting it [are] giving us the capacity to not just produce the vaccine here in Australia [with the AstraZeneca vaccine, through CSL], but also to develop and produce the UQ vaccine," he said. 

"So that is giving us a sovereign capacity to get Australians what they will need should both of those vaccines prove successful as they go through their trials."  “

 

 

I’m not sure if they want to hold it back so much they just want to make sure the other one continues to be developed.  I guess as one could be more effective than the other or provide longer immunity and I guess if it’s local it may help keep money in the country although I’m not sure about that.  Norman Swann talked about the two vaccines together thing yesterday and seemed to think it was ok but I agree it sounds kind of risky to me particularly with the issues with sars1 vaccine.

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12638420?__twitter_impression=true
 

The investigation into what went wrong in hotel quarantine is ongoing here.  Guests have left (ironically via a street named Rona Walk) bought takeaway coffee etc.  Victoria police raised concerns but they weren’t dealt with.  There were also a handful of suicide attempts 😞.  A number of guests from passenger lists were also a accounted for in hotel quarantine so not sure what happened there.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m not sure if they want to hold it back so much they just want to make sure the other one continues to be developed.  I guess as one could be more effective than the other or provide longer immunity and I guess if it’s local it may help keep money in the country although I’m not sure about that.  

That’s probably quite significant.   Not just for itself but other future vaccines done in same way. 

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Norman Swann talked about the two vaccines together thing yesterday and seemed to think it was ok but I agree it sounds kind of risky to me particularly with the issues with sars1 vaccine.

 

It makes total sense to me to want the UQ one developed.  

However my understanding is that it’s only in phase 1 while others including AZ are already in phase 3.  So having them out at same time may mean extra rush for UQ and holding back AZ.  

First completed is not necessarily going to be the best, and the two have iirc significantly different technologies.   

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

That’s probably quite significant.   Not just for itself but other future vaccines done in same way. 

 

It makes total sense to me to want the UQ one developed.  

However my understanding is that it’s only in phase 1 while others including AZ are already in phase 3.  So having them out at same time may mean extra rush for UQ and holding back AZ.  

First completed is not necessarily going to be the best, and the two have iirc significantly different technologies.   

Where are you getting the info that they want to release them at the same time?  I haven’t heard that but I have had a couple of busy days so might have missed it.  Would like to know if that’s likely to be the case.

[Pen]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Where are you getting the info that they want to release them at the same time?  I haven’t heard that but I have had a couple of busy days so might have missed it.  Would like to know if that’s likely to be the case.

Some news article I saw . If I come to it again, I’ll link.  It went something like that the AU company asked to get things ready for manufacturing and delivery — possibly a company with a 3 letter name, said they would not prepare the AZ unless / until they could prepare for UQ too.   Or something like that...  which then led to “January “ as target. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Pen said:

Some news article I saw . If I come to it again, I’ll link.  It went something like that the AU company asked to get things ready for manufacturing and delivery — possibly a company with a 3 letter name, said they would not prepare the AZ unless / until they could prepare for UQ too.   Or something like that...  which then led to “January “ as target. 

 

Seems odd.  I don’t think January is a realistic target for the UQ vaccine from what I understood.  But maybe it’s further than I realised.

[Ausmumof3]

Worldwide death toll has passed 900,000

[Ausmumof3]

India reported 95,529 cases in 24 hours

[iamonlyone]

Covid is confusing. Kansas named names and numbers today to show where there are cases and how many: https://kansasreflector.com/2020/09/09/kansas-names-businesses-schools-churches-long-term-care-facilities-with-covid-19-outbreaks/

I have stayed home except for errands and going into the office twice a week, where I am the only one there. Most of our friends have been back to church in person since June. There have been many churches (some large) meeting in our city and state since June. Colleges have been open several weeks, some with in-person classes. I am thrilled we are not seeing more cases than we are, but it confuses me too.

It is hard to understand how all these large groups can meet for weeks or months with few cases, and then I read about other people (like Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson and family) who mostly sheltered in place and still became ill...or the super spreader events. I don't get it.

Edited to add: I also don't really understand the national ratings. Kansas is "red" because of high percentage testing numbers, but mostly only those who think they might be positive are testing...and the majority of those tests are negative. Without testing a mixed sample of the population, how can we really know the percentage of spread in the population?

Edited September 10, 2020 by iamonlyone

[Pen]

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-vaccine-developers-idUKKBN25Z1N4

 

9 leading vaccine developers unite - pledge ...

 

 

 

[popmom]

1 hour ago, iamonlyone said:

Covid is confusing. Kansas named names and numbers today to show where there are cases and how many: https://kansasreflector.com/2020/09/09/kansas-names-businesses-schools-churches-long-term-care-facilities-with-covid-19-outbreaks/

I have stayed home except for errands and going into the office twice a week, where I am the only one there. Most of our friends have been back to church in person since June. There have been many churches (some large) meeting in our city and state since June. Colleges have been open several weeks, some with in-person classes. I am thrilled we are not seeing more cases than we are, but it confuses me too.

It is hard to understand how all these large groups can meet for weeks or months with few cases, and then I read about other people (like Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson and family) who mostly sheltered in place and still became ill...or the super spreader events. I don't get it.

 

I’m with you. Very confusing. Of all of the acquaintances I know have had COVID—in most cases only one person in the household tested positive. It didn’t spread to other members of the household. Of course this is purely anecdotal observation. But it’s important to me because I’m still not sure my dd’s recent illness wasn’t COVID even though she tested negative (I want to have faith in the test but her symptoms were so strange). She had another sick day this weekend. Night sweats, headache, and nausea—just like before but only lasting 24 hours. And 2 days later she had what we originally thought were weird bug bites on her feet and calves. Only there is no way she’s been around fleas. When the “bites” started spreading, I realized it is a rash. Looks like beginning of chicken pox sort of. Tonight the rash has spread to one arm. I’ll be calling the doctor tomorrow. 

All this to say...if my daughter has had COVID all this time, why haven’t my husband and I caught it? Why have those other families not spread it to the rest of their household? In one case the woman ended up in ICU close to death—no one else in her house caught it. 

ETA I’m not sure how I feel about the naming of businesses, etc with outbreaks. First thought was—yes! Tell it! But the BBB made a good point. It will inevitably lead to shaming. I can see how damaging that could be to small businesses who may have been doing everything right and just got unlucky.

Edited September 10, 2020 by popmom

[EmseB]

1 hour ago, popmom said:

I’m with you. Very confusing. Of all of the acquaintances I know have had COVID—in most cases only one person in the household tested positive. It didn’t spread to other members of the household. Of course this is purely anecdotal observation. But it’s important to me because I’m still not sure my dd’s recent illness wasn’t COVID even though she tested negative (I want to have faith in the test but her symptoms were so strange). She had another sick day this weekend. Night sweats, headache, and nausea—just like before but only lasting 24 hours. And 2 days later she had what we originally thought were weird bug bites on her feet and calves. Only there is no way she’s been around fleas. When the “bites” started spreading, I realized it is a rash. Looks like beginning of chicken pox sort of. Tonight the rash has spread to one arm. I’ll be calling the doctor tomorrow. 

All this to say...if my daughter has had COVID all this time, why haven’t my husband and I caught it? Why have those other families not spread it to the rest of their household? In one case the woman ended up in ICU close to death—no one else in her house caught it. 

ETA I’m not sure how I feel about the naming of businesses, etc with outbreaks. First thought was—yes! Tell it! But the BBB made a good point. It will inevitably lead to shaming. I can see how damaging that could be to small businesses who may have been doing everything right and just got unlucky.

That sounds like a hand foot and mouth type virus or there are a a lot of viruses that my kids have gotten pre-covid that come with a viral rash.

[popmom]

17 minutes ago, EmseB said:

That sounds like a hand foot and mouth type virus or there are a a lot of viruses that my kids have gotten pre-covid that come with a viral rash.

Thank you. I will look it up. Her symptoms have been perplexing.

ETA...Persistent Non Polio Enteroviral Infection is a thing, and matches her symptoms. Will ask dr about it tomorrow. Sorry for the hijack! Thanks again. Still as confused as ever about COVID!

Edited September 10, 2020 by popmom

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, popmom said:

I’m with you. Very confusing. Of all of the acquaintances I know have had COVID—in most cases only one person in the household tested positive. It didn’t spread to other members of the household. Of course this is purely anecdotal observation. But it’s important to me because I’m still not sure my dd’s recent illness wasn’t COVID even though she tested negative (I want to have faith in the test but her symptoms were so strange). She had another sick day this weekend. Night sweats, headache, and nausea—just like before but only lasting 24 hours. And 2 days later she had what we originally thought were weird bug bites on her feet and calves. Only there is no way she’s been around fleas. When the “bites” started spreading, I realized it is a rash. Looks like beginning of chicken pox sort of. Tonight the rash has spread to one arm. I’ll be calling the doctor tomorrow. 

All this to say...if my daughter has had COVID all this time, why haven’t my husband and I caught it? Why have those other families not spread it to the rest of their household? In one case the woman ended up in ICU close to death—no one else in her house caught it. 

ETA I’m not sure how I feel about the naming of businesses, etc with outbreaks. First thought was—yes! Tell it! But the BBB made a good point. It will inevitably lead to shaming. I can see how damaging that could be to small businesses who may have been doing everything right and just got unlucky.

I think it’s most likely not but there were also I think some people that tested negative on the nasal swab but they found covid in the cells in the skin with the covid rash.  A different virus is provably more likely though.

[iamonlyone]

Just now, square_25 said:

From what I’ve seen, positivity is the best statistic for estimating spread within the community.

Even when only those with symptoms or possible exposure are testing? Not arguing, just really wondering.

[iamonlyone]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yes, it seems like it. The correlation between positivity and deaths a few weeks later is very high. So I think positivity is a good predictor of the number of cases, at least in the US 🙂 .

So far, there are 495 deaths in Kansas. It seems like the trends are easier to see in states with larger numbers (not that I'm complaining!).

[iamonlyone]

10 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

 

Which is really annoying for our county. CA now only cares about new cases and positivity rate as far as allowing businesses to reopen. Our positivity rate is quite low and would put us in the second to best tier; however, our new cases puts us in the worst tier. One of the bad things about living in a low populated county is that your case numbers have to be really really low in order to progress through re-opening. I'm hoping we get there soon because we have to be at that rate for three weeks before any progress at all can be made, until our governor changes his mind again.

I'm glad you posted this. Our daughter lives in CA (smaller northern town) and, although she is now back teaching preschool, her ballet career is on hold. They have had multiple times when the company makes plans for in-person distanced training, but then the benchmarks change and the county nixes things. It's already hard enough since their city theater announced last spring that they will not take bookings until next spring. Your post helps me understand her circumstances better.

I think what is hard for me in Kansas is that since our numbers are comparatively low, it makes it seem more of a hardship to shelter in place. I see most (all?) people we know well living normal lives for months (vacations, camps, church, etc.) without illness. (Again, I'm really glad. It's just that it causes me some mental dissonance because I had anticipated the virus would run through populations like wildfire. The stats in the article I linked above show it is mainly affecting factories, prisons, and senior care facilities here.) It makes me wonder if there is really much positivity in the general population.

I can be glad others are doing so well, though, and still remain committed to distancing. I would rather be wrong than contribute to the spread of illness. It's just a rather lonely stance in my circle.

Edited September 10, 2020 by iamonlyone

[mathnerd]

Now it is confirmed that LA had COVID even before China publicly announced that it had an outbreak. Apparently, there were many cases in December (in retrospect, that would have been a great time for infectious disease experts to start working on containment or a vaccine or medication).

A lot of people in California feared that this was what was happening back then because of the daily air traffic between China and LA/SFO. The official confirmation from UCLA researchers is out today:

https://deadline.com/2020/09/coronavirus-los-angeles-december-ucla-1234574683/

ETA: another link: https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-09-10/the-coronavirus-may-have-reached-los-angeles-even-before-china-announced-its-outbreak

 

 

Edited September 10, 2020 by mathnerd

[Laura Corin]

BBC News - Scotland's Covid contact tracing app downloaded half a million times https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54098960

Eta Scotland has a population of 5.5 million

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/10/sturgeon-announces-covid-rule-of-six-for-social-gatherings-in-scotland?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Edited September 10, 2020 by Laura Corin

[mathnerd]

40 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

 

See, we weren't all just crazy people. I'm betting that the reason it wasn't as deadly here as it was in NY, when it was definitely in both places early, was a combination of population density and NY's strain being from Europe.

Yeah, I have been called crazy more than once because I said that the infection was spreading here before the CDC officially declared it was here 😉 I am sure that more data will come out when researchers have had a chance to drill down into more patient records in hospitals across the west coast. Personally, I am glad that they are investigating this because most of the public officials were towing the CDC line that there was no Covid before a certain date in March.

I am convinced at this point that there have been other not-so-lethal strains of Coronavirus emanating from bats in china which have been going around the west coast for a while that we have a more robust immunity to CV19 than other parts of the US.

[EmseB]

26 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Except California kept going up, right? It's not like you had it go through the population and achieved even partial immunity. It just looks like it didn't stick. 

Maybe, but also we wouldn't know necessarily because people don't go get tested for cold or even flu symptoms a lot of the time and definitely don't get tested when healthy like colleges are doing. I don't think we have a good baseline to work from, honestly. The other day I was looking at data from AZ? (I think) and their reports of Covid Like Illness (CLI) ER visits are lower than when they started tracking it, but obviously they are still having cases and will continue to have cases even when CLI visit rates are lower than before we knew of covid.

Edited September 10, 2020 by EmseB

[EmseB]

Just now, square_25 said:

If you assume it's honestly a different strain that's less deadly, it's of course possible that it has spread all around. However, assuming the IFR is similar, it probably hasn't. 

Do you know how much visits for flu-like illness spike when there's a serious pandemic? This says that they went up by 50%, and I wonder how many cases that translates to... 

I don't know. I don't assume it has spread *all* around, but since looking at the timelines more closely lately, it seems that over 200k people left Wuhan before the first of the year, maybe a lot more than that. Obviously not all of them went overseas, but some did and I think at that point, with a virus that looks like flu or common cold being spread during cold and flu season...the west coast had some of it. I don't see how we didn't, honestly.

In a lot of places, too, there was a surge of hospitalizations, but they didn't go over capacity and were able to use existing surge plans for transferring patients regionally and such that happen occasionally during high usage periods (obviously for most regions this has occurred over the summer instead of normal flu season). So if that sort of thing happened in a region during normal flu season with an un-id'd respiratory bug it would certainly look like stress on the hospital system, but if we weren't looking for covid at the time, would we know about all the milder cases and asymptomatic cases?

[mathnerd]

12 minutes ago, square_25 said:

OK, here are the numbers: 

"The researchers counted a total of 2,938 patients who went to a clinic seeking help for a cough in the 13 weeks between Dec. 1, 2019, and Feb. 29, 2020. That was about 1,047 more than the average number of cough patients seen during the same three-month period in the previous five years." 

So, say a thousand more than before, and say that it's about one patient in 20 that seeks advice for COVID. (That's a bit higher than the hospitalization rate, but then clinics are less serious than hospitals.) That means there were... 20,000 cases of COVID in that time overall, or something like that. That's a teeny tiny fraction of California's population. 

... there are a lot of other huge hospital systems in SoCal in addition to UCLA's hospitals.

[EmseB]

12 minutes ago, square_25 said:

OK, here are the numbers: 

"The researchers counted a total of 2,938 patients who went to a clinic seeking help for a cough in the 13 weeks between Dec. 1, 2019, and Feb. 29, 2020. That was about 1,047 more than the average number of cough patients seen during the same three-month period in the previous five years." 

So, say a thousand more than before, and say that it's about one patient in 20 that seeks advice for COVID. (That's a bit higher than the hospitalization rate, but then clinics are less serious than hospitals.) That means there were... 20,000 cases of COVID in that time overall, or something like that. That's a teeny tiny fraction of California's population. 

But given 20k people, that is a ton, in my mind, to not lead to a lot more in the subsequent weeks even giving lockdown on March 9th, I think it was. 20k people not staying home with cold symptoms, no one using special ppe around them, etc. And yet...I don't think we ever got to true overwhelm or catastrophe of the NE. It's been awhile since I've check to see where we are, admittedly.

I'm not arguing anything specific by the way, a lot of this just doesn't make sense to me.

[Terabith]

Well, on this very thread, we were speculating back in early February that there was spread in California and Washington state, just based on things like "the weird pneumonia epidemic in Seattle," and a poster's husband who is a commercial pilot, who had the CDC meet a plane because there was someone positive for covid but then didn't notify anyone on the flight or quarantine them or anything.  December is earlier than I would have guessed, but it makes since, since it takes time for the "weird pneumonia epidemic" to get going.