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12 hours ago, square_25 said:

Here's the randomized Vitamin D study: 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7456194/

If the results are true, it's quite impressive. However, some of the things in this study are very strange. First of all, it's quite small -- big enough if it's really randomized, but small. Second of all, this says that it's a "Parallel pilot randomized open label, double-masked clinical trial." I don't think "open label" can be double-masked, can it? 

Also, the way the qualities distributed between the groups is strange. The number of people with high blood pressure is vastly largely in the untreated group, and that's very unlikely with actual randomization. Having so many people with previous diabetes in the control group is also very unlikely... it's not like they are even reporting on that many statistics, so having so many strangely distributed attributes makes me wonder what in the world they did to randomize. 

Anyway, I would love to see this reproduced. I would guess people must be trying it, now that there's this very strong result.... 

 

The words “open label” and “masked” used together seem contradictory and don’t make sense to me.  One short paragraph explained what the “masking” entailed. 

The randomization process was explained in the paper.

It makes sense to me that actual randomization won’t necessarily give well matched cohorts especially with a small study.  Like 50 coin tosses won’t typically give 25 heads and 25 tails. 

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9 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I would guess that colleges are a part of it.  A lot of cases were picked up as returning college students were tested.  But there are other sources also continuing.   I am sure the fires and hurricanes situation has not helped. Conditions in shelter facilities and fire fighting camps don’t lend themselves to maintaining good distance, and the smoke probably adds to lung impairment. In my county there have been new outbreaks in senior living facilities also. 

 

I found some of this data helpful for us metrics.

https://twitter.com/Hold2LLC/status/1308051762407002113?s=19

 

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2 hours ago, Terabith said:

Okay, I should really sift through it all, but what's the recommended vitamin D supplementation?  Assume no benefit from sun.  Level was 46 in April of 2019, and I can't get it updated.  

 

There is no exact answer because a) vitamin D metabolism is individual b) exact ideal level is not determined (and some people feel better individually at different levels, and different levels are associated with less cancer versus less viral infection... )

 

You can go to the GrassrootsHealth.org (iirc  the url) and enter your weight, the 46 level if you think you would still be the same, and your target level, say 60, which I think is possibly its top calculator level currently and get a computer calculated number.

 Or you can go to VitaminDWiki and read its more detailed information and look at its tables.  For many adult and teen size people 5,000 IU per day seems to be an amount to maintain level as is. (but some people need more and some less to maintain a level) sSo if you want to get up to around 60, you probably need somewhat more for awhile, or one bolus dose and then around 5,000 IU daily-Assuming the 46 from 2019 is still roughly correct if you haven’t changed eating/sun/vitamin habits since (lifestyle in terms of D). 

NB: Above 4,000 IU per day from my research is level at which you also need to take balancing vitamins- at least K2, and probably A and E to not have problems with calcium reg etc.  This is probably why most doctors don’t say over 4,000 - it becomes more complicated. 

 

Currently 50ng/ml (if u got levels as ng/ml - std in USA most of world uses nmol /l) is being considered a base level of okay - afaik.  My research has indicated that a good bit higher is probably better for me. Some people I know aim for “highway 66” as an ideal, others even higher like 85 or 100.   

 

 

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

No, but the chances of 15 heads or fewer is minimal. I calculated probabilities and got a less than 2 percent probability of so many people with high blood pressure in one group, which is... possible, of course, but unlikely.

 

🤷‍♀️ Maybe it was false. Idk. 

It said a larger study will be started. Or maybe did already. 

 

Could be helpful to have vitamin D ship tests for prophylaxis— like was once done for limes and scurvy.  Have some ships with captains who have the whole crew  maintain a ~60ng/ml D level and see if they do better than ones who don’t.  Or similar in food packing plants, agricultural workers, etc. 

 

Personally I think seeking a single magic bullet is a mistake—and most studies seem set up to try to do that.  And I think there’s a lot to the motto that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure ...  I am using D3 etc and zinc etc and masks etc.  

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https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN26C27E?__twitter_impression=true
 

This would be strange if more true.  There’s some thought that prior infection with dengue fever seems to be protective against Covid19.  Areas that have had heavy dengue fever outbreaks have lower COVID infection rates.  This is preprint only at this stage.  
 

“Nicolelis told Reuters the results are particularly interesting because previous studies have shown that people with dengue antibodies in their blood can test falsely positive for COVID-19 antibodies even if they have never been infected by the coronavirus. 

"This indicates that there is an immunological interaction between two viruses that nobody could have expected, because the two viruses are from completely different families," Nicolelis said, adding that further studies are needed to prove the connection.”

 

Does anyone know if HCQ is used for dengue treatment at all?

 

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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, I like the idea of a prophylaxis study. Or of this study replicated. This big an effect would be amazing.

 

Is your position that you avoid D supplementation for you and your family unless it is proved effective for CV19 in an RCT?  

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10 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN26C27E?__twitter_impression=true
 

This would be strange if more true.  There’s some thought that prior infection with dengue fever seems to be protective against Covid19.  Areas that have had heavy dengue fever outbreaks have lower COVID infection rates.  This is preprint only at this stage.  
 

“Nicolelis told Reuters the results are particularly interesting because previous studies have shown that people with dengue antibodies in their blood can test falsely positive for COVID-19 antibodies even if they have never been infected by the coronavirus. 

"This indicates that there is an immunological interaction between two viruses that nobody could have expected, because the two viruses are from completely different families," Nicolelis said, adding that further studies are needed to prove the connection.”

 

Does anyone know if HCQ is used for dengue treatment at all?

 

 

 

Cinchona / quinine from which Chl and HCQ originally derive was used traditionally for treating fevers of all types (and some other illnesses too), probably millennia and at least centuries before knowing the causative agents. 

 

modern / recent times? 

Chloroquine to decrease pain / symptoms?

HCQ in vitro studies attenuated DF, but Idk if there were real life studies.

 Many people in DF areas are more likely to have HCQ access more readily - it’s over the counter in some parts of world, so hard to know if people feel bad with DF and take HCQ do they feel better? Or did they get a less severe case of DF if on HCQ (or Chloroquine or quinine?) antimalarial in times past?  I don’t have anecdotal observation evidence about it let alone RCTs. 

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Nah, it’s probably worth doing!! Not like there’s any harm, and it’s useful for other stuff. It’s just inertia.

However, I’m very curious whether it actually helps.

Vitamin D is the only supplement my very evidence-based, pro-vax ped recommends, FWIW. You might give yours a call and ask.  

We have been inside so much these last few weeks because of the smoke I've tried to be extra vigilant about giving it, but even with outdoor time the doc says you need way more sun than is healthy to get enough vit D.

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2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Nah, it’s probably worth doing!! Not like there’s any harm, and it’s useful for other stuff. It’s just inertia.

However, I’m very curious whether it actually helps.

I have not kept up at all with the evidence for Vit D and Covid so I may be way off the mark. My dd has been studying about correlation and causation recently and I got to thinking about the Vit D thing and it crossed my mind to wonder if it was possible that people with low D may be more likely to be those that spend a lot of time inside and we now know that being inside is much more of a risk for contracting Covid.

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15 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, I’m sure it’s a good idea!! I’ve just been lazy. We were planning on starting to supplement, actually.

 Since it doesn’t seem high priority to you to take D anyway, maybe you could do a small study on your own family.  One spouse take it, one not.  Half of kids supplement, half not.  It would not need to be blind or random or anything and would hardly be “proof” of anything with such tiny sample—but maybe it would make for an interesting irl experiment as part of homeschooling .  You could observe and keep track of all illnesses, common cold for example in the took it and didn’t take it groups.   You could also measure actual levels in family members. 

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8 minutes ago, TCB said:

What the heck! This is getting ridiculous!

I guess implications in terms of schools and PPE are expensive.  I know in Aus healthcare staff are fighting to get fit testing for n95.  I’m only guessing but I’d assume once aerosolised spread was acknowledged this would have to be provided.  (I think they actually are finally getting it at least for the covid wards).

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14 minutes ago, square_25 said:

That's going to be completely meaningless, lol. We are all totally different people. It would be vaguely meaningful if one year I took it and one year I didn't, but even then you can't do much with that data unless it's extremely strong (spoiler alert: it won't be.) 

 

Are you all people who tend to “never get sick” no matter what?  If so and if in addition to that you are largely isolating this year, then it would probably be quite meaningless.  

Otoh if you are a family that tends to get one or more colds yearly and to spread them from one to another within the family and you are still getting exposed to others, it might not be so meaningless.  If you found out that all family members got sick just as much with 25ng/ml or 60ng/ml, I would be interested in that observational anecdote.  (I am thinking common cold, stomach bugs, etc, not CV19!)   Or whatever results you got, I’d be interested. Maybe DD 8yo would be interested in such a “study”— it might even have science fair potential for that age level!   Write up could explain issues of small sample size etc.    other factors like mood, physical strength, vision, could also be tracked....

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1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

Are you all people who tend to “never get sick” no matter what?  If so and if in addition to that you are largely isolating this year, then it would probably be quite meaningless.  

Otoh if you are a family that tends to get one or more colds yearly and to spread them from one to another within the family and you are still getting exposed to others, it might not be so meaningless.  If you found out that all family members got sick just as much with 25ng/ml or 60ng/ml, I would be interested in that observational anecdote.  Or whatever results you got, I’d be interested. Maybe DD 8yo would be interested in such a “study”— it might even have science fair potential for that age level!   Write up could explain issues of small sample size etc. 

We certainly got sick less this year but unfortunately I think that was the distancing not the d because kids aren’t taking it and they didn’t get sick either.

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40 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, I’m sure it’s a good idea!! I’ve just been lazy. We were planning on starting to supplement, actually.

It's well established in medical literature that vitamin D status has a major impact on immunity. Years before Covid, we learned my youngest had a genetic tendency to low D--and her levels were indeed quite low--so began supplementing. Before that she seemed to get every bug that came down the pike, and that stopped when she started the supplements.

So wait for RCTs on Covid + D if you like, but to me it's a no-brainer general immune support. Anyone in the northern half of the US probably needs to supplement, certainly in winter, and even more so if you're a person of color. 

From what I've read it's worth supplementing magnesium at the same time, and we alternate days with a formulation that combines D3 and K with a higher dose D3 and separate Vitamin A drops. 

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN26C27E?__twitter_impression=true
 

This would be strange if more true.  There’s some thought that prior infection with dengue fever seems to be protective against Covid19.  Areas that have had heavy dengue fever outbreaks have lower COVID infection rates.  This is preprint only at this stage.  
 

“Nicolelis told Reuters the results are particularly interesting because previous studies have shown that people with dengue antibodies in their blood can test falsely positive for COVID-19 antibodies even if they have never been infected by the coronavirus. 

"This indicates that there is an immunological interaction between two viruses that nobody could have expected, because the two viruses are from completely different families," Nicolelis said, adding that further studies are needed to prove the connection.”

 

Does anyone know if HCQ is used for dengue treatment at all?

 

Interesting. Two of my dc had dengue in 1999-2000. There was no treatment other than one got IV fluids for dehydration. I don't know if hospitalized cases where the person has hemorrhagic dengue do get medicines prescribed or not.

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1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Positivity's been going down, so we expect deaths to continue to go down for at least 2 weeks. After that, who knows. People will be going inside in the colder states, and that will probably be bad. 

Is positivity still going down in places that have opened for quite awhile? I thought at least one of the southern states (GA? AL?) has had schools open for quite awhile. It seems a lot of states have maintained declining positivity with indoor dining and such opened up?

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6 minutes ago, EmseB said:

Is positivity still going down in places that have opened for quite awhile? I thought at least one of the southern states (GA? AL?) has had schools open for quite awhile. It seems a lot of states have maintained declining positivity with indoor dining and such opened up?

Reuters has this morning that death rate in the US is up 5pc.  There seems to be a lot of different stats around which don’t add up.  Maybe to do with backfilling older deaths or something.  The trouble with that is it seems like how ever you do it you create issues either artificial spikes if you put it all as today or an artificial sense of decline if you back full but today’s aren’t current.  

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Abc
 
“Today we're announcing a $30 million package to upgrade facilities across Victoria whether it be from Richmond to Repunya.
  
"These are things like, for argument's sake as I was talking a minute ago about Dementia Week.
  
"Gardens, to upgrade gardens to make them dementia friendly.
 
"Upgrades of kitchens, common areas, floors and alike. A lot of it is maintenance-based.
 
"It's been identified in 2019 some of these works so now we're getting on with doing then."
 
 
 
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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I guess implications in terms of schools and PPE are expensive.  I know in Aus healthcare staff are fighting to get fit testing for n95.  I’m only guessing but I’d assume once aerosolised spread was acknowledged this would have to be provided.  (I think they actually are finally getting it at least for the covid wards).

Horrible that they haven’t had it on the covid wards! We may have to wear it over and over but at least we have it. 

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48 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Haven't monitored all the states. Just monitoring overall positivity right now. 

Just curious, how is that helpful? 

Obviously, each state or area has it's own issues, own Rt, and own health mandates. Is there something specific you are watching for?

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Just now, square_25 said:

Nope. It correlates extremely well with death rates 2 weeks later, though. I have some theories about why that is, but observationally, it's just true. 

I have heard you say that before. Is it just for the intellectual knowledge then? I guess I base all my decisions about my life on local info because that makes more sense to me but we are in our own little world up here.

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I was getting viruses ALL the time, and my health improved greatly when I started supplementing vitamin D, but my level was only like 12.  My oldest child's level was either 7 or 9.  We definitely are huge believers in supplementing here, but our levels all drop to the "everyone agrees they're clearly deficient" range without pretty rigorous supplementation.  

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

CDC apparently updated their guidance to aerosol transmission yesterday then removed the update for review a few hours later!

Not just for Ausmumof3...

 

If it's spread through aerosol transmission, cloth masks aren't effective, right?  Do properly fitted N95 masks prevent the spread of an aerosolized virus?

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2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Haven't monitored all the states. Just monitoring overall positivity right now. 

Oh, I hardly ever look at US data as a whole. The areas and issues at play seem too diverse for it to be meaningful, but we are probably watching numbers for different reasons. 

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18 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Not just for Ausmumof3...

 

If it's spread through aerosol transmission, cloth masks aren't effective, right?  Do properly fitted N95 masks prevent the spread of an aerosolized virus?

It is spread by droplets and aerosols. Not everything is aerosolized. Cloth masks do help and cut down on viral load. But yes, respirators are the most effective. 

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Reuters has this morning that death rate in the US is up 5pc.  There seems to be a lot of different stats around which don’t add up.  Maybe to do with backfilling older deaths or something.  The trouble with that is it seems like how ever you do it you create issues either artificial spikes if you put it all as today or an artificial sense of decline if you back full but today’s aren’t current.  

Yes, that's why I like Hold2's data on Twitter. He seems to account for a lag in reporting and makes charts that overlay day of death vs. day reported if states provide it, with the month each death occurred.

Which, yes, I know he comes from a particular viewpoint, but the data is sourced and reported honestly, he just draws different conclusions from it than some.

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Just now, EmseB said:

Yes, that's why I like Hold2's data on Twitter. He seems to account for a lag in reporting and makes charts that overlay day of death vs. day reported if states provide it, with the month each death occurred.

Which, yes, I know he comes from a particular viewpoint, but the data is sourced and reported honestly, he just draws different conclusions from it than some.

Quoting myself to add, there are some conspiracy theorists out there who think the deaths are being deliberately held back and reported later to create a kind of false tail so that people don't think it's over and done with...like some deaths being reported go back to May and June. I happen to think is just bureacracy.

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@Ausmumof3.   (And possibly of interest   @ElizabethB @Terabith

@Acadie   @EmseB  ) 

 

 

Dengue: 

https://www.journalrmc.com/volumes/5_ Effectiveness of Vitamin D in Prevention of Dhf & Dss.pdf

 

(Papaya leaf appears to be a folk herbal treatment currently.  Also references to zinc and Quercitin interesting enough.) 

Edited by Pen
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1 hour ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Not just for Ausmumof3...

 

If it's spread through aerosol transmission, cloth masks aren't effective, right?  Do properly fitted N95 masks prevent the spread of an aerosolized virus?

Yes and no.  There’s some debate about airborne versus aerosol that I don’t really understand that plays into this.  I recently saw someone describe it as an “opportunistic aerosol virus”.  I think that means that it can aerosolise in some circumstances but it’s not the only kind of transmission.  Those circumstances are much more likely to happen in health care settings, or places where people sing or talk loudly.  So your mask is still useful for preventing you spreading droplets to other people.  However with the high viral load in health care they’re definitely not enough protection.  And for the rest of us we are better off avoiding those environments.  Countries with mask mandates do seem somewhat to experience better outcomes though I’m not really up on the latest data.

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41 minutes ago, Pen said:

@Ausmumof3.   (And possibly of interest   @ElizabethB @Terabith

@Acadie   @EmseB  ) 

 

 

Dengue: 

https://www.journalrmc.com/volumes/5_ Effectiveness of Vitamin D in Prevention of Dhf & Dss.pdf

 

(Papaya leaf appears to be a folk herbal treatment currently.  Also references to zinc and Quercitin interesting enough.) 

Interesting.  One thing I think this pandemic is telling me is we’re all healthier if we can spend more time outdoors!

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1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

It is spread by droplets and aerosols. Not everything is aerosolized. Cloth masks do help and cut down on viral load. But yes, respirators are the most effective. 

But we're not wearing the masks to protect ourselves primarily, right? We wear them to protect others. Masks with respirators do NOT protect others from the wearer's germs. At least that is my understanding. 

From CDC 

  • Masks with exhalation valves or vents should NOT be worn to help prevent the person wearing the mask from spreading COVID-19 to others (source control).
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12 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Interesting.  One thing I think this pandemic is telling me is we’re all healthier if we can spend more time outdoors!

And, there was a reason the Canadian grandmas in Anne of Green Gables pushed Cod Liver Oil in the books.

Vitamin D gummies go over much better than Cod Liver Oil, my husband and kids take them happily.  I have to take special formulated pills weekly because of allergies, I alternate powder and olive oil based.

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Just now, ElizabethB said:

And, there was a reason the Canadian grandmas in Anne of Green Gables pushed Cod Liver Oil in the books.  They pushed them all winter long and extra doses if you got sick.

Vitamin D gummies go over much better than Cod Liver Oil, my husband and kids take them happily.  I have to take special formulated pills weekly because of allergies, I alternate powder and olive oil based.

 

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8 minutes ago, popmom said:

But we're not wearing the masks to protect ourselves primarily, right? We wear them to protect others. Masks with respirators do NOT protect others from the wearer's germs. At least that is my understanding. 

From CDC 

  • Masks with exhalation valves or vents should NOT be worn to help prevent the person wearing the mask from spreading COVID-19 to others (source control).

I am wearing my mask to protect myself and others. Obviously my odds of being protected go up if others are masked as well. I wear a surgical mask over the respirator to provide protection for others. 

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58 minutes ago, popmom said:

But we're not wearing the masks to protect ourselves primarily, right? We wear them to protect others. Masks with respirators do NOT protect others from the wearer's germs. At least that is my understanding. 

From CDC 

  • Masks with exhalation valves or vents should NOT be worn to help prevent the person wearing the mask from spreading COVID-19 to others (source control).

 

Masks with valves don’t protect others unless valves are closed off

 

respirators come with and without valves

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3 hours ago, square_25 said:

We can't close state borders. As long as the pandemic is raging somewhere in the country, none of us are all that safe, especially if like me you live in a city with lots of tourism. 

No, we can't, but clearly spikes and such are regional. The NE remained at very low positivity through the entire sunbelt peak and decline.

Also, apparently one county in TX added a ton of old positives over the last couple days if I'm reading this link right? If that contributes to an overall number of positive test in the US in the range of 5 figures, then it tells you close to nothing if you're looking at daily positive tests for the US as a whole.

https://twitter.com/JoeWo2020/status/1308218944692592641?s=19

I not trying to change your mind, just adding perspective to the thread. I get we disagree, probably even with the idea of what is "raging" or what it means to be "all that safe" or what we do until we are safe.

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3 hours ago, square_25 said:

Interesting. 

The thing I worry about with anecdotal data is confounders. Like, I got viruses for a while when my kids started preschool and then I stopped. My personal story about that is that I became immune to lots of the common colds floating around. Am I right about that? Who knows. That was my personal guess. 

 

It happens.  Animals (at least mammals and birds, and maybe @dmmetler or her daughter would know for reptiles etc, ) require many substances of which vitamin D is an important one among several that tend to be low in modern lifestyles (among people and domestic or captive animals who don’t get sun or sufficient amount from food) for immune systems to function so that “I became immune” is possible.    

The innate branch of immune system requires 

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Just now, Pen said:

 

It happens.  Animals (at least mammals and birds, and maybe @dmmetler or her daughter would know for reptiles etc, ) require many substances of which vitamin D is an important one among several that tend to be low in modern lifestyles (among people and domestic or captive animals who don’t get sun or sufficient amount from food) for immune systems to function so that “I became immune” is possible.    

The innate branch of immune system requires 

There absolutely are substances that reptiles need to thrive. UV light is required for pretty much any reptile who is awake during the day at all, and most need calcium and vitamin D as well. It’s one reason why reptile husbandry is fairly difficult.

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4 hours ago, square_25 said:

Interesting. 

The thing I worry about with anecdotal data is confounders. Like, I got viruses for a while when my kids started preschool and then I stopped. My personal story about that is that I became immune to lots of the common colds floating around. Am I right about that? Who knows. That was my personal guess. 

The rule of thumb for teachers is that if you make it to tenure, you’ll never get sick again, because you’ve caught everything that first few years. I suspect it is more that if you don’t have a really robust immune system, you will probably either quit or your attendance will be bad enough you won’t get tenure. I know for me, it also was that I learned what times of year I needed to be really on top of preventatives, because if I could keep my allergies under control, they didn’t turn into sinus infections, bronchitis, or pneumonia. Whether that was because my immune system could fight off normal stuff when it wasn’t already unhappy, or whether it was that I was a less fertile ground for viruses and bacteria to grow, I couldn’t say. But I do know that, despite having an immune system that tries to kill me if someone spices my food wrong, or just because it decides it is unhappy for some reason, I rarely get colds. 

 

 

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

And, there was a reason the Canadian grandmas in Anne of Green Gables pushed Cod Liver Oil in the books.

Vitamin D gummies go over much better than Cod Liver Oil, my husband and kids take them happily.  I have to take special formulated pills weekly because of allergies, I alternate powder and olive oil based.

 

12 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Interesting.  One thing I think this pandemic is telling me is we’re all healthier if we can spend more time outdoors!

 

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128099650000021

 

fish and vitamin D and sun 

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