wuhan - coronavirus

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

This is an exponentially decreasing function in that the decrease each step of the way becomes exponentially smaller.  So, each round the decreases in the number of new cases becomes smaller and smaller and smaller (exponentially).  So with this the number of new cases each round goes from 100 to 50 (50 improvement), then 50 to 25 (25 improvement, then 25 to 12.5, and so forth..

I understand the poster to be describing a decline that got exponentially bigger--so that as difference in new cases got larger and larger over time (like for 100 to 90, then 90 to 70, then 70 to 40...), like what happens with an R0 larger than 1, but I don't think that happens mathematically without a negative R0 (which is impossible).  

Mathematically, this is why the early models of flatten the curve, that showed a bell-shaped curve we so misleading--it would take an extremely dramatic decline in R0 for the right hand of the curve to decline as quickly and sharply as the left hand increased.  

 

What I think is that there is a difference between the messiness of real world medicine and biology and the perfect pure orderliness of mathematics.  And even more complicated real life situations  occur when complex psychological factors are added. . 

 

I don’t want to argue about math, but to alert to a phenomenon that can happen where mitigation leads into an epidemic new case reduction that “gathers steam” as it meets with other biological factors such as increasing immunity in the population.

 

 

 This phenomenon , I’ll just call it “gathering steam,” can potentially mean that an epidemic can be broken with what would seem like too low a level of immunity in a community population for “herd immunity” perhaps could happen even at levels like 25% immunity that some communities may be reaching. 

And there’s synergy that can happen with multiple simultaneously embraced mitigation strategies.  

 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

38 minutes ago, AmandaVT said:

 

I feel like NY has a pretty good visual for a sharp decrease in cases. 

Pretty Perfect up “hockey stick” jaggedy down “hockey stick” 

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by Pen

[Bootsie]

9 minutes ago, Pen said:

Pretty Perfect up “hockey stick” jaggedy down “hockey stick” 

This is not what I would see in this graph.  I would see what I have in yellow.  On the downside there is a quick, steep decrease, but then it tapers off and becomes flatter.  The red line seems to indicate a flatter decrease, followed by a steeper decrease.

[Bootsie]

54 minutes ago, AmandaVT said:

 

I feel like NY has a pretty good visual for a sharp decrease in cases. 

It took New York about 14 days to go from 5000 cases per day to 10,000 cases per day (using the 7-day MA to smooth).  On the downside, it took about 20 days for the MA to fall to 5000 (so lower to the downside).  Then it took another 20 days to cut cases in 1/2 again, to 2500, but that was reducing cases by 2500 in 20 days not 5000.  Then, it took another 20 days for the next 1250 reduction.  In about 2 1/2 months there has not bee another halving of the cases.  This leads to a curve that looks more like the one below than a bell-shaped curve.  The decline on the downside starts out steep (but not as steep as the upside) and does not continue as steep--instead of gaining steam or momentum it loses steam

[Pen]

On 8/21/2020 at 4:58 PM, Ausmumof3 said:

Here in my state any positive cases in a house with one bathroom get moved to medi hotels.  Obviously that’s only viable with low numbers though.

 

I heard that Massachusetts might try to do something like that. 

I don’t think that medi hotels exist in my area. 

🤷‍♀️

[AmandaVT]

16 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

It took New York about 14 days to go from 5000 cases per day to 10,000 cases per day (using the 7-day MA to smooth).  On the downside, it took about 20 days for the MA to fall to 5000 (so lower to the downside).  Then it took another 20 days to cut cases in 1/2 again, to 2500, but that was reducing cases by 2500 in 20 days not 5000.  Then, it took another 20 days for the next 1250 reduction.  In about 2 1/2 months there has not bee another halving of the cases.  This leads to a curve that looks more like the one below than a bell-shaped curve.  The decline on the downside starts out steep (but not as steep as the upside) and does not continue as steep--instead of gaining steam or momentum it loses steam

Did you just hand draw that? I am impressed! I have no drawing skills. 😂  And yes, the smooth curve doesn't look as impressive as the original one. There was another state with a good curve that looked like an exponential drop. I'll see if I can find it because now I'm curious how it'll look smoothed out.

Arizona maybe?

 

[Bootsie]

56 minutes ago, AmandaVT said:

Did you just hand draw that? I am impressed! I have no drawing skills. 😂  And yes, the smooth curve doesn't look as impressive as the original one. There was another state with a good curve that looked like an exponential drop. I'll see if I can find it because now I'm curious how it'll look smoothed out.

Arizona maybe?

 

That was just a hand-drawn sketch of the shape.  Not a true representation of the New York graph.  Looking at Arizona, it took about 15 days to double cases from 1740 to 3620, and then about 26 days for cases to drop back close to 1800.   So, still less steep on the downside. It only took 11 days to cut that number in 1/2 again, (but that is only a reduction of 900)--so that was a bit a steeper decline in early August.

Strategies to flatten the curve probably make the downside portion of the curve less steep (because you are trading off a less pronounced peak).  The good news is that you never had as many daily cases, but psychologically, I think it is difficult when people are seeing smaller and smaller gains in reduction of daily cases as mitigation measures are in place longer and longer, exacerbating quarantine fatigue  

 

 

 

[Pen]

 

@Bootsie I see what you are looking at and think both aspects are there. 

I am focusing on an earlier part of graphing. 

Maybe we “see” or focus our attention on what we were trained to “see” or focus attention on.   Like the blind men with elephant. 

I focus on

1) the first almost flat part at the growing stage that is for me an “oh no” it’s going exponential, do something quick because this is the easiest time to cope...   a hard time to get people to do anything because it still looks like things are “fine”

2) and then the start of  jaggedy but also flattish downslope to the downward trend where there’s for me a “Thank heavens” and keep on keeping on with mitigation, because, yes, the solution is a long slog, but this is not a time to give up...

3) and if there’s a plateaued tail look like in the NY graph to watch it very carefully for any sign of a new hockey stick going up type shape off it and to try to catch the first gradual indication on the “blade”  not waiting for it to show a clear “shaft”  

 

I am seeing a relatively stable graph “ tail” in some places  (such as NY for recent times on graph @AmandaVT ? Posted) even at the same time as there is “opening up” and reduction of some mitigation strategies.   

 

And I see some hopeful signs of the shape I seek in the AZ graph (though there’s still a lot overall higher than I would like, and a bit of worry small end spike that could be a new heel of the hockey blade heading to a new upward shaft if they aren’t very very careful) 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by Pen

[Bootsie]

19 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

@Bootsie I see what you are looking at and think both aspects are there. 

I am focusing on an earlier part of graphing. 

Maybe we “see” or focus our attention on what we were trained to “see” or focus attention on.   Like the blind men with elephant. 

I focus on

1) the first almost flat part at the growing stage that is for me an “oh no” it’s going exponential, do something quick because this is the easiest time to cope...   a hard time to get people to do anything because it still looks like things are “fine”

2) and then the start of  jaggedy but also flattish downslope to the downward trend where there’s for me a “Thank heavens” and keep on keeping on with mitigation, because, yes, the solution is a long slog, but this is not a time to give up...

3) and if there’s a plateaued tail look like in the NY graph to watch it very carefully for any sign of a new hockey stick going up type shape off it and to try to catch the first gradual indication on the “blade”  not waiting for it to show a clear “shaft”  

 

I am seeing a relatively stable graph “ tail” in some places  (such as NY for recent times on graph @AmandaVT ? Posted) even at the same time as there is “opening up” and reduction of some mitigation strategies.   

 

And I see some hopeful signs of the shape I seek in the AZ graph

 

 

I would "see" or interpret the downward sloping portion of this curve a bit differently than what you have marked in purple.  I would either (1)draw the purple trend line less steep so that it just touches the August peak (which would indicate a slower downtrend); this approach would be considering a longer-term trend or (2) if I used such a steep trend line through July, I would have a new trend line that is much less steep (which would indicate the downtrend is loosing steam); this approach would be looking at a perspective of a series of shorter-term trend lines.  The cases did not hold to the trend line that is drawn for late July--so that trend did not carry on into August.

[lewelma]

8 hours ago, square_25 said:

Selfish question, but were they masked? We just found that someone in our building has COVID, and to make this news even more welcome, we just drove over to Boston to hang out with the in-laws... we had been quarantining in NY before leaving, but there’s no way to avoid the elevator 😕 

My understanding is that everyone in the quarantine facilities are masked. They are not sure that it was the elevator, but that is the only know link between the 2 people that have the same virus genome sequence.

 The imported case who likely gave it to the maintenance worker could not yet have tested positive, because once positive, you are required to stay in your room (so no daily outside exercise so no being in the elevator). They test all residents on day 3 and day 12, and even then they say that 4% of positive cases will still receive 2 negative tests, which is why they require 14 days quarantine regardless of your testing status.  But if you get a positive test, you get transferred to the more strict facility where you can't leave your room.  They have gotten 40,000 people through the quarantine facilities with so far only this one know transmission within the facility.  They must have amazing protocols. I've been very impressed.

Edited August 23, 2020 by lewelma

[lewelma]

10 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Did you see that this cluster was 1 to 93 cases in 22 days; and during the last 10 of those days, Auckland was in lockdown (work from home, all churches/shops/restaurants closed). Also during the last 10 of those days, they were running around like crazy doing contact tracing and moving people into the quarantine facilities.  1 to 93 is fast especially with this kind of containment effort. So it only had 12 days to spread without restriction.  

Edited August 23, 2020 by lewelma

[lewelma]

So in the first 12 days that it spread without restriction, the index case was at home on sickleave for 9 of those days.  But he passed it to someone at Amicold before he started on sick leave, and the index case's 3 family members passed it to another workplace and 2 schools before they knew they had it.  Then from the 2 workplaces and 2 schools, it passed to their families, and then to 2 churches and to 2 people who take a bus everyday. (we were not masking on public transport at that point). And then the index family went to a different city for a holiday and went to tourist attractions and restaurants and then went to visit their granny at the retirement home. They did all this before they knew the dad who was home sick had covid, and before these family members showed any symptoms.  It has been a fascinating investigation to watch unfold over the last 10 days. They moved fast! All this while they ramped up testing within 2 days to double what had been our previous max. 

Edited August 23, 2020 by lewelma

[lewelma]

I bet someone will do a public health study on this cluster, because where else has there been no Covid where you could watch a single case spread in a population.  I'm hoping they learned some really valuable lessons that they can share. 

[lewelma]

Just now, square_25 said:

Oooh. A record of public transit transfer! Any idea how long they were on the bus together? 

Luckily, Auckland buses uses a swipe card that is registered to the individual.  So they know that there were 17 people sharing the bus and sitting near the person who had it (apparently it records seat?).  16 of these people have been contacted, isolated, and tested.  1 person had an unregistered card, so they have put out a call with the details to hopefully find that one person. 

All they know is that there appears to have been a covid transfer on a bus. There was no masking at the time as we were a covid elimination zone. They were on the bus together for 15 minutes. 

[lewelma]

I think that if we get back to elimination status (which they think we will), they are likely to change a few things in our Level 1 restrictions.  Currently, they only require quarantine for returning people--the Level 1 restrictions do not ban any size gathering.  My guess is that they will revisit them in light of what they have learned.  I think they will mandate masks on public transport as that is by far the worst type of spread as it goes everywhere and you are with strangers. They can't really mandate masks everywhere, as there would not be compliance because we have eliminated Covid. People would just not think the inconvenience would be worth it.  But if they just mandate masks in particularly risky situations, it would be followed and keep people less complacent.

Also, I'm guessing they will lower the max number of people at events.  Currently, Level 1 is unlimited, so 43K people were at the stadium the weekend before this happened.  My guess is that they will try to manage this in some way. Not sure how, as those events are very good for the economy.

[lewelma]

10 minutes ago, square_25 said:

15 minutes... yikes. That is a VERY short interaction. Frankly, shorter than I would have thought likely for COVID spread. That definitely makes store visits a very plausible way to spread COVID, never mind schools, which are simply a disaster. 

Well, they were NOT masked.  That makes a difference. 

[lewelma]

15 minutes ago, kand said:

This elevator revelation is definitely not comforting.

Unfortunately, they were masked on the elevator in a quarantine facility, and there was 2 minutes between the trips. They are not sure this was the vector, but they have nothing else connected these two people that genome testing has linked.

Edited August 23, 2020 by lewelma

[lewelma]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Could be surface transmission?

Yes, of course.  But this was in a quarantine facility system, where 40,000 people have passed through and no other transmission has occurred that they are aware of.  So they must be doing a bang up job wiping down surfaces. 

Edited August 23, 2020 by lewelma

[lewelma]

42 minutes ago, square_25 said:

never mind schools, which are simply a disaster. 

My sister is a teacher in a private school in KY. 2 of *her* students have tested positive and there are 2 teachers also.  They have not closed the school and they are not testing the students and staff.  She is close to quitting. 

ETA: she is never removing her mask, so is eating her lunch through a straw.  She brings soup in a thermos.

Edited August 23, 2020 by lewelma

[lewelma]

Just now, square_25 said:

It’s very impressive.

They brought the military in to run the quarantine operation. 

[mathnerd]

14 minutes ago, lewelma said:

ETA: she is never removing her mask, so is eating her lunch through a straw.  She brings soup in a thermos.

I feel sorry to read this. Could she go outside to her car and eat alone inside her car? Or maybe go to a park bench and sit there by herself to eat? 

[lewelma]

17 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

I feel sorry to read this. Could she go outside to her car and eat alone inside her car? Or maybe go to a park bench and sit there by herself to eat? 

She is required to observe the students during her lunch break. So we spent an hour trying to figure out how she can eat. She won't use the shared microwave, so is making soup, heating it at home, and bringing it in a thermos. She is using one of those very fat straws under her mask to eat. 

And it is actually worse than just soup through a straw.  She has converted her windowless storage closet into an office so she doesn't have her desk out in the main room. She has all the Biology lab gear in there and a sink. She won't use the shared bathrooms, so she is peeing in a cup in her office and dumping it down the sink. A 47 year old woman, stooping to this to keep her job because they are requiring she show up in person.

My poor sister has had a sinus infection for 2 full years. Bacteria, fungus, 2 surgeries -- she has had it all. The only way they got rid of it in March is by blowing balloons up inside her nose to break the sinus cavity up and open up space for drainage.  All done while she was awake!  She cannot get Covid.  Her immune system is shot. 

Now she finds out 2 of her students have tested positive. And she is still required to teach in person.

Edited August 23, 2020 by lewelma

[lewelma]

15 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh my goodness. She should quit if she can afford to...

She is close. But finances are an issue.

Edited August 23, 2020 by lewelma

[Pen]

 

2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

.  The cases did not hold to the trend line that is drawn for late July--so that trend did not carry on into August.

 

Did human behavior stay the same?

Or is there then the result at least in part of a delayed effect of less lock down ? 

[Pen]

2 hours ago, lewelma said:

My understanding is that everyone in the quarantine facilities are masked. They are not sure that it was the elevator, but that is the only know link between the 2 people that have the same virus genome sequence.

 The imported case who likely gave it to the maintenance worker could not yet have tested positive, because once positive, you are required to stay in your room (so no daily outside exercise so no being in the elevator). They test all residents on day 3 and day 12, and even then they say that 4% of positive cases will still receive 2 negative tests, which is why they require 14 days quarantine regardless of your testing status.  But if you get a positive test, you get transferred to the more strict facility where you can't leave your room.  They have gotten 40,000 people through the quarantine facilities with so far only this one know transmission within the facility.  They must have amazing protocols. I've been very impressed.

 

I hope at least in addition to barely any transmissions getting past protocols that the maintenance worker gets relatively mild case from the protocols of time delay plus mask!

 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, lewelma said:

My sister is a teacher in a private school in KY. 2 of *her* students have tested positive and there are 2 teachers also.  They have not closed the school and they are not testing the students and staff.  She is close to quitting. 

 

The overall situation sounds really bad.  I hope they go to where she can work from home for virtual school

So she isn’t forced to quit

the whole health insurance situation we have probably also factors in if her job gives her her medical coverage 

😞

 

Quote

ETA: she is never removing her mask, so is eating her lunch through a straw.  She brings soup in a thermos.

 

As a flap on mask over a straw hole ? 

Or pulling it away from face to put straw up into the gap? 

I’ve seen both now and hole plus flap looks more secure... 

 

I wish people in such situations could be allowed 

. 

[Pen]

36 minutes ago, lewelma said:

She is required to observe the students during her lunch break. So we spent an hour trying to figure out how she can eat. She won't use the shared microwave, so is making soup, heating it at home, and bringing it in a thermos. She is using one of those very fat straws under her mask to eat. 

And it is actually worse than just soup through a straw.  She has converted her windowless storage closet into an office so she doesn't have her desk out in the main room. She has all the Biology lab gear in there and a sink. She won't use the shared bathrooms, so she is peeing in a cup in her office and dumping it down the sink. A 47 year old woman, stooping to this to keep her job because they are requiring she show up in person.

My poor sister has had a sinus infection for 2 full years. Bacteria, fungus, 2 surgeries -- she has had it all. The only way they got rid of it in March is by blowing balloons up inside her nose to break the sinus cavity up and open up space for drainage.  All done while she was awake!  She cannot get Covid.  Her immune system is shot. 

Now she finds out 2 of her students have tested positive. And she is still required to teach in person.

 

Oh dear.

that’s really scary !!!!!

 

Does she have a high level filtration mask, not just plain cloth or surgical type? 

I think in her situation I would be taking all the possible prophylaxis protocol things I possibly could that didn’t seem contraindicated by my personal health status in case they might help. And for sure would get Vitamin D level and also zinc if possible tested.  Would run  a personal area air filter if I could... or two...

 

 

 

 

[Bootsie]

44 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

Did human behavior stay the same?

Or is there then the result at least in part of a delayed effect of less lock down ? 

Who knows?  If everything remained the same for the virus and human behavior, mathematically you would see the trend line get less steep; so, I wouldn't find the result unexpected or curious.  However, human behavior and any changes in the virus itself could make that impact appear more or less muted.  Because we can't account for all of those changes, I find it difficult to draw conclusions about things like "State A did X and look at the impact; this proves..." 

[Ausmumof3]

116 cases 15 deaths in Vic.  Australia as a whole passed 500 deaths yesterday and NSW will administer the 2 millionth test today.  Encouraged to see such a big drop today although being the weekend it will probably bounce back up slightly.

[Bootsie]

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

*shrug* In the context of a pandemic, you have to do your best with the data you've got. You should obviously keep readjusting as data comes in, but you are never going to have really excellent data. 

Since no one is going to run RCTs for this stuff, I'm actually pretty willing to go with natural experiments, especially if they are relatively matched. (Now, comparing states that are very different, that's not so useful. But I don't think all of our data looks like that.) I don't mind making tentative conclusions from case studies, either, at least unless they've been superseded by bigger data sets. 

I agree with making tentative conclusions--we do have to do the best with the data that we have, while realizing the limitations of that data--and be open to new info as it becomes available.  

[Ausmumof3]

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1545589-20200824.htm?spTabChangeable=0
 

proven case of reinfection.  Initially it was thought that this man was just having a long shedding period but testing showed the second infection was a slightly different strain.  However he was asymptomatic the second time round so maybe the previous infection prevented serious illness?  

[Ausmumof3]

14 minutes ago, Bagels McGruffikin said:

I was just coming here to post that.

 

Thanks.  From what I can read it’s not all bad news.  If he was asymptomatic it might mean he’s basically immune just concern over whether the person could also spread the infection.  It just means there would be a couple of days of mild infectiousness while the memory cells create new antibodies.  Obviously no ones really sure yet but hopefully it’s going to work like that.

[BeachGal]

The Hong Kong press release is saying people who’ve had a confirmed case of Covid should get vaccinated.

Scientists are studying the reinfections but they do not believe they will cause a problem with developing vaccines. It may be the very unusual mutations that are causing the reinfections but those mutations do not appear to be widespread.

It is unusual to see ADE and in the case of Dengue Fever, it is the range of antibodies that make a previously infected person vulnerable to the more deadly subsequent infections. Even so, Takeda in Japan has developed a vaccine that is showing promise for Dengue Fever. IIRC, they are making that vaccine at-risk because of the good results they’ve seen so far.

 

https://www.unibo.it/en/notice-board/the-six-strains-of-sars-cov-2

The six strains of SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2 mutation rate remains low. Across Europe and Italy, the most widespread is strain G, while the L strain from Wuhan is gradually disappearing. These mutations, however, do not impinge on the process of developing effective vaccines.

 

The virus causing the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, presents at least six strains. Despite its mutations, the virus shows little variability, and this is good news for the researchers working on a viable vaccine. 

These are the results of the most extensive study ever carried out on SARS-CoV-2 sequencing. Researchers at the University of Bologna drew from the analysis of 48,635 coronavirus genomes, which were isolated by researchers in labs all over the world. This study was published in the journal Frontiers in Microbiology. It was then possible for researchers to map the spread and the mutations of the virus during its journey to all continents.

The first results are encouraging. The coronavirus presents little variability, approximately seven mutations per sample. Common influenza has a variability rate that is more than double.

"The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is presumably already optimized to affect human beings, and this explains its low evolutionary change", explains Federico Giorgi, researcher at Unibo and coordinator of the study. "This means that the treatments we are developing, including a vaccine, might be effective against all the virus strains".

Currently, there are six strains of coronavirus. The original one is the L strain, that appeared in Wuhan in December 2019. Its first mutation - the S strain - appeared at the beginning of 2020, while, since mid-January 2020, we have had strains V and G. To date strain G is the most widespread: it mutated into strains GR and GH at the end of February 2020.

"Strain G and its related strains GR and GH are by far the most widespread, representing 74% of all gene sequences we analysed", says Giorgi. "They present four mutations, two of which are able to change the sequence of the RNA polymerase and Spike proteins of the virus. This characteristic probably facilitates the spread of the virus" 

If we look at the coronavirus map, we can see that strains G and GR are the most frequent across Europe and Italy. According to the available data, GH strain seems close to non-existence in Italy, while it occurs more frequently in France and Germany. This seems to confirm the effectiveness of last months' containment methods.

In North America the most widespread strain is GH, while in South America we find the GR strain more frequently. In Asia, where the Wuhan L strain initially appeared, the spread of strains G, GH and GR is increasing. These strains landed in Asia only at the beginning of March, more than a month after their spread in Europe.

Globally, strains G, GH and GR are constantly increasing. Strain S can be found in some restricted areas in the US and Spain. The L and V strains are gradually disappearing.

Besides these six main coronavirus strains, researchers identified some infrequent mutations, that, at the moment, are not worrying but should nevertheless be monitored.

"Rare genomic mutations are less than 1% of all sequenced genomes", confirms Giorgi. "However, it is fundamental that we study and analyse them so that we can identify their function and monitor their spread. All countries should contribute to the cause by giving access to data about the virus genome sequences".

This study was published in the journal Frontiers in Microbiology with the title "Geographic and Genomic Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 Mutations". The authors are Daniele Mercatelli and Federico M. Giorgi, both from the Department of Pharmacy and Biotechnology of the University of Bologna.

Edited August 24, 2020 by BeachGal

[Pen]

9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1545589-20200824.htm?spTabChangeable=0
 

proven case of reinfection.  Initially it was thought that this man was just having a long shedding period but testing showed the second infection was a slightly different strain.  However he was asymptomatic the second time round so maybe the previous infection prevented serious illness?  

 

That’s helpful to know as issues like whether people who already had it should have to follow masks rules arise. 

 

(If It were not possible to infect others it seems like the person was essentially protected by prior infection, but since there’s still issues of Asymptomatic spread it seems like masks should still be used)

 

Edited August 24, 2020 by Pen

[Kanin]

20 hours ago, lewelma said:

She is required to observe the students during her lunch break. So we spent an hour trying to figure out how she can eat. She won't use the shared microwave, so is making soup, heating it at home, and bringing it in a thermos. She is using one of those very fat straws under her mask to eat. 

And it is actually worse than just soup through a straw.  She has converted her windowless storage closet into an office so she doesn't have her desk out in the main room. She has all the Biology lab gear in there and a sink. She won't use the shared bathrooms, so she is peeing in a cup in her office and dumping it down the sink. A 47 year old woman, stooping to this to keep her job because they are requiring she show up in person.

My poor sister has had a sinus infection for 2 full years. Bacteria, fungus, 2 surgeries -- she has had it all. The only way they got rid of it in March is by blowing balloons up inside her nose to break the sinus cavity up and open up space for drainage.  All done while she was awake!  She cannot get Covid.  Her immune system is shot. 

Now she finds out 2 of her students have tested positive. And she is still required to teach in person.

Oh, my goodness. Your poor sister. I actually did quit my teaching job, and my circumstances would have been much better than hers! I would have been a nervous wreck if anyone in my school tested positive, let alone IN MY CLASS! It's shameful that they're not quarantining the class at the very least. Could she put an air purifier in the room near where she stands? I'm not sure how effective they are, but maybe it would help.

I really can't picture going into a classroom and spending the entire day feeling terrified. 

[JennyD]

This thread by an immunologist about the HK reinfection case is interesting -- and reassuring.

 

[Ausmumof3]

148 cases and eight deaths for Vic today.  Glad it’s still going on the right direction though faster would be nice.  The concern is that spread won’t be got rid of in health care and aged care and will force everyone else to stay in lockdown longer.  Gov really needs to sort the PPE issues.

[Laura Corin]

I'm really happy.  The university where I work is changing its rules on masks.  Previously they were just to be compulsory (with exemptions for particular medical conditions) wherever social distancing was not possible.  So they would be worn in corridors, but not once seated in a classroom.  The rule has changed so that staff and students will be wearing masks during all in-person teaching as well.  This is in response to what sounds like a revolt among students and teaching staff.

Interesting point: people who are not able to wear masks will be issued with a badge that they can pin to their top, so that no one will give them a hard time.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/what-are-the-implications-of-the-first-case-of-cov?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=racgp&utm_campaign=b7038f08-2e29-4bfe-b039-6cae99a723d7
 

another good article on the reinfection immunity thing.  It’s basically saying the same as the twitter thread Jenny linked already I think from memory but just in case anyone needs a non twitter all in one article.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-netherlands-reinfe-idUSKBN25L0LF?taid=5f44ef496f609f00014dd79a&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter
 

claims of two other cases of reinfection in Europe.  One was in an older immune compromised person so possibly the immune system wouldn’t work in the Usual way.

[Ausmumof3]

One hotel from the Sydney quarantine program has been dropped and guests moved to other hotels.  Apparently rooms were dirty and guards weren’t all masking correctly.  

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-25/sydney-travelodge-dumped-from-nsw-coronavirus-hotel-program/12594866

[Pen]

@lewelma I was just listening to a report on guidelines from representatives from my state’s health department, State OSHA Occupational Safety, and schools.   At one point one of the speakers said something like, “And of course work from home or other options must be provided for at risk workers”—which made me think of your sister.  I don’t know what her state’s rules have, but maybe something would cover her situation and allow her to become a remote teacher.  Also maybe federal ADA could apply? 

[Matryoshka]

I included this paragraph in a post that I wrote in the Reopening Schools thread, but I thought I should post it here too, as I think it might interest anyone wondering about the possibility (or not) of natural herd immunity...

For those hoping for 'herd immunity' - the town that had it the worst here, when we were in the thick of it, the town that had 30% of its population come up positive for antibodies, which I think is one of the highest rates ever found in any of those tests worldwide - and that was random population testing, not those who had suspected cases?  Right now they are have the worst numbers of the whole state again.  They're up at (by far) the highest cases/day at 24 per 100K and increasing, and they also have the highest positivity rate in the state (just under 5%).  That cases/day/100K # is Georgia level (though I think they have even higher positivity so are missing more cases).  But still  - so much for the idea that once it hits someplace hard everything will be fine, or that something like a 30% infection rate confers herd immunity.

Edited August 25, 2020 by Matryoshka

[lewelma]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

@lewelma I was just listening to a report on guidelines from representatives from my state’s health department, State OSHA Occupational Safety, and schools.   At one point one of the speakers said something like, “And of course work from home or other options must be provided for at risk workers”—which made me think of your sister.  I don’t know what her state’s rules have, but maybe something would cover her situation and allow her to become a remote teacher.  Also maybe federal ADA could apply? 

She tested negative today so she is feeling a bit more positive. Unfortunately, her doctor will not sign off that she is at risk. I've told her to get a new doctor, but this is the one that has been treating her and her sinuses for 2 years. 

[lewelma]

New info on the bus journey in NZ: The positive case infected 2 people on the bus (not just the 1 we knew about before).  But the bus was stuck in traffic so the trip was an hour (not the typical 15 minutes it usually takes). They don't know how close together the 3 were sitting. They were not wearing masks. There were 17 people on the bus, and the others have tested negative.

[Matryoshka]

8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Chelsea, that is? I didn't realize they had a second spike 😕 

Yes, that would be Chelsea.  😕

Edited August 25, 2020 by Matryoshka

[Pen]

9 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

I included this paragraph in a post that I wrote in the Reopening Schools thread, but I thought I should post it here too, as I think it might interest anyone wondering about the possibility (or not) of natural herd immunity...

For those hoping for 'herd immunity' - the town that had it the worst here, when we were in the thick of it, the town that had 30% of its population come up positive for antibodies, which I think is one of the highest rates ever found in any of those tests worldwide - and that was random population testing, not those who had suspected cases?  Right now they are have the worst numbers of the whole state again.  They're up at (by far) the highest cases/day at 24 per 100K and increasing, and they also have the highest positivity rate in the state (just under 5%).  That cases/day/100K # is Georgia level (though I think they have even higher positivity so are missing more cases).  But still  - so much for the idea that once it hits someplace hard everything will be fine, or that something like a 30% infection rate confers herd immunity.

 

I do not think idea was 30% confers immunity, in the sense of no cases.

rather that a combination of masks plus distance plus hygiene plus an unknown (but lower than usual high percentages thought needed for “herd immunity”

 

can give essentially a herd immunity result.  

How are hospitalizations in Chelsea?

And are people there able to utilize distance, masks, hygiene? 

 Afaik  idea is not necessarily that people would not get sick at all, but on second pass through possibly that it would be no longer a severe, brand new, novel infection totally unfamiliar to immune systems with sickness sweeping through community, and  Overwhelming ICUs, causing need for refrigerator trucks for bodies,  etc. 

 

IDK. 1918 flu seemed to be opposite with a worse second wave.

 I think CV19 could go either way, but many statistics I am seeing it seems to be less severe as it is returning after a time of decrease.

Spain, for example, seems to have a resurgence in new cases, but not as huge a number of new deaths. 

 

I think we tend to use “immunity” in common speech to mean “won’t get it at all”.  And that can certainly be true for immunity is that it can confer total resistance to a pathogen.  But also successfully fighting off a pathogen with only mild illness can also be immunity: 

Immunity: 

“the condition that permits either natural or acquired resistance to disease.”

 

And also

 

“the ability of a cell to react immunologically in the presence of an antigen” 

 

Edited August 26, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN25M0SO?taid=5f4629746a7c4e00013cb413&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A Trending Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true
 

Japanese research is finding some promising results about using ozone for disinfection.

 

[Laura Corin]

A different approach to a vaccine - against all Coronaviruses

https://www.itv.com/news/anglia/2020-08-25/coronavirus-vaccine-developed-by-cambridge-scientists-could-soon-begin-clinical-trials

[RootAnn]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/26/health/cdc-guidelines-coronavirus-testing/index.html

CDC changes their testing recommendation to say, "If you have been in close contact (within 6 feet) of a person with a COVID-19 infection for at least 15 minutes but do not have symptoms, you do not necessarily need a test unless you are a vulnerable individual or your health care provider or State or local public health officials recommend you take one."

And HHS says this change won't hurt contract tracing efforts.

!!