wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/potential-covid-case-at-sydney-aged-care-facility-sparks-concern-c-1314898.amp?__twitter_impression=true
 

I wonder what this means?  Maybe a separate illness and the test is picking up traces from the previous infection?

[Pen]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 

Err on the side of caution would mean encouraging athletes or anyone on an intense exercise program to get scanned and checked before returning to play.  At the same time as getting some data together on what the typical rate of myocarditis in athletes is.  If it doesn’t already exist.  It shouldn’t be that hard to get scans on 20-30 healthy volunteers for comparison, to at least get an idea if we’re looking for something.

 

Myocarditis in athletes (2019 publication)

https://m.oxfordmedicine.com/mobile/view/10.1093/med/9780198779742.001.0001/med-9780198779742-chapter-23

 

 

Quote

and on an individual level I’m adding it to my list of reasons why I don’t want covid till we know a lot more about it.  Yes there’s lots of viruses that don’t have long lingering after effects.  There’s also a heck of a lot that do.

 

 

If you knew a lot more, then you might decide that you do want it?   Probably not!

 

 

I do think it’s possible that some people who are on an edge deciding line between not sure if they want Covid or not / or not sure if they want to distance, wear masks, etc , could feel differently / behave differently based on the cardiovascular sequelae news. 

 

IRL I haven’t seen that this news is having much effect. But I am not in an elite athletics area. And local sports at all levels are pretty much all cancelled due to hazardous air quality from fires. 

 

(Btw, Afaik, my nephew who recovered from mild CV19 is not being limited in his participation in childhood activities including sports (though he is a normal active kid, not athlete) and his dad who is a cardiologist does not think it a concern. I expect that’s correct. Of course, time will tell. ETA  My cardiologist relative has seen really severe cardiac damage from CV19, and he does take it seriously.  (The family does mask, distance, etc. They also have good vitamin D status etc. ) Nonetheless, even though he takes it very seriously, has said it’s the worst illness he has dealt with since going into medicine, including some work abroad in epidemic areas, He is not acting like he thinks his son has a 25pc / 1 in 4 chance of having cardiomyopathy.) 

 

Edited September 14, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

Athletes sudden death, some older USA figures, by sport, gender, race: 

 

https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(16)30288-1/pdf

[mom2scouts]

I found out last night that my oldest is in a phase 3 vaccine trial. I'll let you know if I find out anything from him.

[Pen]

59 minutes ago, mom2scouts said:

I found out last night that my oldest is in a phase 3 vaccine trial. I'll let you know if I find out anything from him.

 

Thanks!  Did he say which vaccine? 

[mom2scouts]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

Thanks!  Did he say which vaccine? 

I'm not positive, but I think it's the one by Pfizer and BioNTech which seems to be promising right now. The trial is a double blind study so he doesn't know if he got the vaccine or a placebo. I know another trial by AstraZeneca recently shut down after a volunteer became very ill and he's not in that one.

[Pen]

 

John Campbell on some good news on lower infection fatality rate 

https://youtu.be/TZ7vPxWC-3Y

https://youtu.be/TZ7vPxWC-3Y

 

@Ausmumof3 links to studies looked at / discussed in the video are posted in writing on the YouTube information if you prefer to skim the written studies rather than listen.  

 

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, mom2scouts said:

I'm not positive, but I think it's the one by Pfizer and BioNTech which seems to be promising right now. The trial is a double blind study so he doesn't know if he got the vaccine or a placebo. I know another trial by AstraZeneca recently shut down after a volunteer became very ill and he's not in that one.

 

Thanks!    

Pfizer has one of the very interesting new modalities, using mRNA, iirc. 

AstraZeneca is back on iirc.

 

some places / trials are using another vaccine as placebo so that volunteers can’t guess based on lack of arm soreness or that sort of thing... others are using saline.    I am not sure if Pfizer is using other vaccine or plain saline for its comparison group 

 

I hope he does great and gets immunity if he has the real thing.

And thank him for volunteering!

[lewelma]

1 case yesterday (but been in self isolation since 30 August), and zero cases today.  Hoping we are now in the tail of elimination v2.

[BeachGal]

From what I’ve read, UK’s AstraZeneca study purposely tried to recruit people with more vulnerable health.

Their placebo is a meningitis vaccine, I think. Not sure.

The person who was hospitalized recently has been released from the hospital and is supposedly fine. I read that her problem was not related to the vaccine; however, the US is going to pause the AZ trial here for a few days to scrutinize data. Pauses are to be expected.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.09.20191031v1
 

ANU Study from July in Aus estimates infection rates at around 7 times higher than infected . The study hasn’t been peer reviewed yet and blood tests were taken from patients books for elective surgery so probably not a truly random sample (would probably expect those with contact with health care to potentially have higher infection rates due to the spread in healthcare settings).  Interesting though.  This was prior to Vics second wave in July.

[Ausmumof3]

11 hours ago, BeachGal said:

From what I’ve read, UK’s AstraZeneca study purposely tried to recruit people with more vulnerable health.

Their placebo is a meningitis vaccine, I think. Not sure.

The person who was hospitalized recently has been released from the hospital and is supposedly fine. I read that her problem was not related to the vaccine; however, the US is going to pause the AZ trial here for a few days to scrutinize data. Pauses are to be expected.

Yes meningococcal vaccine I think.  One reason for not releasing details of the event apparently is potential nocebo effect (where people start reporting side effects because they’re expecting those side effects).

[Ausmumof3]

On 9/15/2020 at 4:56 AM, Pen said:

 

Thanks!    

Pfizer has one of the very interesting new modalities, using mRNA, iirc. 

AstraZeneca is back on iirc.

 

some places / trials are using another vaccine as placebo so that volunteers can’t guess based on lack of arm soreness or that sort of thing... others are using saline.    I am not sure if Pfizer is using other vaccine or plain saline for its comparison group 

 

I hope he does great and gets immunity if he has the real thing.

And thank him for volunteering!

I have read that the Pfizer vaccine requires deep freeze storage which will make it more complicated and expensive to roll out.  

[TCB]

TWIV has a good podcast about the different vaccines this week.

[Pen]

23 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have read that the Pfizer vaccine requires deep freeze storage which will make it more complicated and expensive to roll out.  

 I read the same.   All the mRNA type possibly do.

 

[Ausmumof3]

US passed 200,000 deaths on worldometer today.  

[TCB]

8 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

US passed 200,000 deaths on worldometer today.  

I just watched a clip on YouTube by an Australian Rowan Dean ?journalist, claiming that a review of studies of HCQ showed benefit. He then said that in some Australian states Drs would be jailed for prescribing it. I wondered if you had heard this and had any more information Ausmum?

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, TCB said:

I just watched a clip on YouTube by an Australian Rowan Dean ?journalist, claiming that a review of studies of HCQ showed benefit. He then said that in some Australian states Drs would be jailed for prescribing it. I wondered if you had heard this and had any more information Ausmum?

I haven’t heard that but it doesn’t seem to be recommended here anymore.  Prescription meds here are somewhat more restricted than the US I think because the government pays most of it rather than private health.  I’ll see if I can find out more.

[Ausmumof3]

13 minutes ago, TCB said:

I just watched a clip on YouTube by an Australian Rowan Dean ?journalist, claiming that a review of studies of HCQ showed benefit. He then said that in some Australian states Drs would be jailed for prescribing it. I wondered if you had heard this and had any more information Ausmum?

Just for reference Rowan Dean appears to be a host for Sky news which is kinda our equivalent of Fox I guess.  Not that that means this is wrong necessarily but so you know what angle it’s coming from.  I’ll let you know if I find out anything about legislation on HCQ

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I haven’t seen a review showing benefit. I’ve seen very mixed studies... some show harm, some show benefit, some show nothing. The best-designed study, in my opinion, was the Minnesota one, and that one found neither harm nor benefit.

However, I’m open to being wrong 🙂. Any new studies out?

It wasn’t a new study just a meta analysis of existing studies. 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-21/has-hydroxychloroquine-helped-australia-flatten-the-death-curve/12256996
 

@TCB

this is old but is a reasonable overview from prior to May.  The only thing I don’t know is if there was a change after the retracted lancet study.  

[BeachGal]

Pfizer released this good news to investors recently:

https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_presentations/2020/09/Covid-19-Programs_FINAL.pdf
 

No serious or life-threatening events seen yet in phase 3.

From hearsay I’ve read online, the first dose might be enough. Just hearsay at this point but their vaccine might become available sooner than anticipated.

They’re working refrigeration kinks out now and plan to set up units where they’ll be vaccinating, if necessary. However, the vaccines are also viable for 15 days if stored with dry ice.

I'm on the road but thought y’all might like to read something positive.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, BeachGal said:

Pfizer released this good news to investors recently:

https://s21.q4cdn.com/317678438/files/doc_presentations/2020/09/Covid-19-Programs_FINAL.pdf
 

No serious or life-threatening events seen yet in phase 3.

From hearsay I’ve read online, the first dose might be enough. Just hearsay at this point but their vaccine might become available sooner than anticipated.

They’re working refrigeration kinks out now and plan to set up units where they’ll be vaccinating, if necessary. However, the vaccines are also viable for 15 days if stored with dry ice.

I'm on the road but thought y’all might like to read something positive.

Even if it doesn’t work logistically for everyone it might at least help for healthcare settings.

[lewelma]

Seven imported cases today from international flights, all in quarantine. And zero community cases for the third day in a row.  Elimination v2 in progress. 

The government is hinting we will go as a country to level 1 alert on Monday, which is no restrictions at all.  However, my guess is that they will keep masks on public transport, and Auckland will be at a group limit of 100. 

 

Edited September 17, 2020 by lewelma

[Ausmumof3]

Re India’s death toll

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-india-as-covid19-cases-rise-so-do-questions-over-death-toll/6e2ddbc6-251e-4ffa-bb98-628152f1fe82

Nothing really definitive but some questions here.  

[ktgrok]

10 minutes ago, Happymomof1 said:

What I don't understand is how Walt Disney World and Universal have not caused spread. I yelled gloom and doom on the Dis board and now I look like a fool.  They are all like, "we are there and it is safe."

Who says they are not? Especially if out of town people get it there, but are already home by the time they get sick, hundreds or thousands of miles away?

And Universal IS having lots of sick employees, they just are not announcing it, according to the locals here I've talked to. 

[TexasProud]

5 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Who says they are not? Especially if out of town people get it there, but are already home by the time they get sick, hundreds or thousands of miles away?

And Universal IS having lots of sick employees, they just are not announcing it, according to the locals here I've talked to. 

Yeah, that is what I have wondered.  That makes total sense.

[Terabith]

Yeah, I've read some articles about bunches of Disney employees contracting it but no announcements.  Even telling them to come to work sick.  https://www.cbr.com/disney-underreporting-covid-cases-clearing-sick-employees-work/

 

[TexasProud]

What disturbs me about all of this is there is no way to win. I like our Texas governor. I think he is trying to walk the fine line.  But on one side, I have all of the homeschoolers in the new group I just joined ( and may decide to leave) that are screaming he is the most liberal governor and taking away their rights. Flu vaccines and masks are against their rights, etc.  This despite the fact that he opened up Texas to 75 percent, but not bars. Then my mom is screaming that he is the worst governor ever and is opening up way too fast.  So everyone hates him.  I really feel sorry for him.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.9news.com.au/world/coronavirus-internal-astrazeneca-safety-report-sheds-light-on-neurological-condition-suffered-by-covid-19-vaccine-trial-participant/971138c7-f32d-40c3-9323-7bf71ef7de0f
 

more on the astra Zeneca event.  Not our most reliable news source down here but overall this doesn’t make me overconfident 

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/17/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-trial-document/index.html?__twitter_impression=true
 

same story from CNN

[Ausmumof3]

The world passed 30,000,000 cases

[Shoeless]

Hmm, I read both articles on the transverse myelitis case.  The fall while jogging clouds things.  Is the TM from the vaccine or is it from the fall?  It's hard to know from what the articles have disclosed. 

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, MissLemon said:

Hmm, I read both articles on the transverse myelitis case.  The fall while jogging clouds things.  Is the TM from the vaccine or is it from the fall?  It's hard to know from what the articles have disclosed. 

Yes I agree.  Or was the fall caused by the transverse myelitis.  The fact that no spinal damage showed from the fall clouds it more.  
 

they didn’t actually say it wasn’t transverse myelitis they just said the diagnosis wasn’t conclusive yet.  
 

I also think the fact that it was 2 weeks after the second dose maybe makes me feel a bit different than if it was a couple of months on.  And that transverse myelitis is already suspected as a potential vaccine related event.
 

if it’s a common event it will show up again I guess.  It’s only if it’s a 1 in 10,000 type event that this could be a problem.  

[Shoeless]

1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes I agree.  Or was the fall caused by the transverse myelitis.  The fact that no spinal damage showed from the fall clouds it more.  
 

they didn’t actually say it wasn’t transverse myelitis they just said the diagnosis wasn’t conclusive yet.  
 

I also think the fact that it was 2 weeks after the second dose maybe makes me feel a bit different than if it was a couple of months on.  And that transverse myelitis is already suspected as a potential vaccine related event.
 

if it’s a common event it will show up again I guess.  It’s only if it’s a 1 in 10,000 type event that this could be a problem.  

Agreed. Did she trip because she was having mobility issues, or was it just an accident and then had mobility issues? 

It's also unusual that she's already recovering, (may be fully recovered?).  From what I read, that is not typical of TM. 

[EmseB]

I think the speculation about the event is why they try not to release details about these things before scientists can look at all the data as a whole.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, MissLemon said:

Agreed. Did she trip because she was having mobility issues, or was it just an accident and then had mobility issues? 

It's also unusual that she's already recovering, (may be fully recovered?).  From what I read, that is not typical of TM. 

I only know what I’ve learned since reading about the astra Zeneca trial but what I read seemed to say 1/3 of people recover fully and easily, 1/3 recover but have some long lasting effects and 1/3 never recover.  Don’t know how accurate that is.  But yes I imagine a pinched nerve etc from a fall could cause some similar symptoms.  I guess we just wait and see if there’s any further incidents.  I don’t think I’ll be first in line for a vaccine though we will once it seems safe.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, EmseB said:

I think the speculation about the event is why they try not to release details about these things before scientists can look at all the data as a whole.

Yeah it’s a different thing to normal vaccine development because everyone’s watching closely.  I think for me on that situation that would make transparency even more important because there’s so many conspiracies and skepticism that any whiff of a cover up is going to make people even more suspicious.  On the other hand there are certainly anti vaxxers who will amplify any event of this nature as well.  So I guess it’s a hard line to walk.

[ktgrok]

10 hours ago, square_25 said:

Ugh. I do NOT like the earlier denial of transverse myelitis reports by them. Lying like that is shady.

But with how fast she recovered, it may not be transverse myelitits. There is no actual test or anything for it -it's diagnosed based on clinical signs and symptoms that have no other explanation and after she got better so fast there is reason to think it no longer fits. Not to mention, could be the fall caused an issue. 

9 hours ago, MissLemon said:

 

It's also unusual that she's already recovering, (may be fully recovered?).  From what I read, that is not typical of TM. 

Agreed

6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I only know what I’ve learned since reading about the astra Zeneca trial but what I read seemed to say 1/3 of people recover fully and easily, 1/3 recover but have some long lasting effects and 1/3 never recover.  Don’t know how accurate that is. 

My understanding is that even when there is an easy recovery it takes months, physical therapy, etc. 

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

But with how fast she recovered, it may not be transverse myelitits. There is no actual test or anything for it -it's diagnosed based on clinical signs and symptoms that have no other explanation and after she got better so fast there is reason to think it no longer fits. Not to mention, could be the fall caused an issue. 

Agreed

My understanding is that even when there is an easy recovery it takes months, physical therapy, etc. 

 

Usually “easy” is not very quick like this vaccine volunteer. 

Not always though.

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2491982/

Edited September 18, 2020 by Pen

[EmseB]

9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yeah it’s a different thing to normal vaccine development because everyone’s watching closely.  I think for me on that situation that would make transparency even more important because there’s so many conspiracies and skepticism that any whiff of a cover up is going to make people even more suspicious.  On the other hand there are certainly anti vaxxers who will amplify any event of this nature as well.  So I guess it’s a hard line to walk.

My problem with transparency, such as it is, is that there are very few people who have the background or contextual information to have any idea what any one single data point might mean (do we even know for sure the person who had the issue was in the placebo group or not? I may have missed that.). And your penultimate sentence is the exact concern I have. People are already talking about the company denying the true nature of the event or trying to cover something up. It is all pretty standard anti-vaxxer rhetoric being adopted by people who would not otherwise be anti-vax, meanwhile, every medical professional I know or have read who knows anything about vaccine development says this is a normal part of the process of trials, even the lack of information being released until the trials are complete. Making this one "different" so more information is released preemptively to the general public seems like a recipe for disaster to me.

Transparency seems like a good thing all around, but in the case of RCTs of any kind I think it can really muddy the waters and affect outcomes.

Edited September 18, 2020 by EmseB

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

My problem with transparency, such as it is, is that there are very few people who have the background or contextual information to have any idea what any one single data point might mean (do we even know for sure the person who had the issue was in the placebo group or not? I may have missed that.). And your penultimate sentence is the exact concern I have. People are already talking about the company denying the true nature of the event or trying to cover something up. It is all pretty standard anti-vaxxer rhetoric being adopted by people who would not otherwise be anti-vax, meanwhile, every medical professional I know or have read who knows anything about vaccine development says this is a normal part of the process of trials, even the lack of information being released until the trials are complete. Making this one "different" so more information is released preemptively to the general public seems like a recipe for disaster to me.

Transparency seems like a good thing all around, but in the case of RCTs of any kind I think it can really muddy the waters and affect outcomes.

Yes it was confirmed the person was in the trial arm not the placebo arm 

[EmilyGF]

15 hours ago, square_25 said:

Ugh. I do NOT like the earlier denial of transverse myelitis reports by them. Lying like that is shady.

My impression is that with neurological diseases, diagnosis is difficult. When word gets out that a certain neurological disease has happened with a vaccine before, it becomes more and more likely that doctors will lazily diagnose that disease without due diligence. So, openness could actually hinder the scientific result. Just like double-blind studies: the studies only work because people don't know which group they are in, so studies of effects work better if people are looking for *all* possible causes and effects, not just a single "expected" one.

Emily

[ktgrok]

Also, we need to remember that it isn't the vaccine company saying this wasn't related. There is an outside review panel as well as government review, from what I understand. So not just those that profit from it making the call. 

[Acadie]

British Medical Journal editorial on a group of small studies that found pre-existing cellular immunity to Covid in 20-50% of people, probably due to previous exposure to other coronaviruses:

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563.full?ijkey=fb7IwiBWN21zMIF&keytype=ref

And WaPo summary of the BMJ editorial below. Now all we need is cheap and easy testing for T-cell reactivity to Covid, and research on what degree of immunity it confers.

At least six studies, Doshi writes, have reported T-cell reactivity against the virus in 20 to 50 percent of people with no known exposure to it.

One study of blood specimens obtained in the United States between 2015 and 2018 found that 50 percent had T cells reactive to the novel coronavirus, Doshi writes. Another study of blood specimens from the Netherlands found T-cell reactivity in 2 out of 10 people.

Doshi also describes two other studies in Germany and Singapore in which researchers detected reactive T cells in people with no known exposure to the virus, and he noted other research in the United Kingdom and Sweden that found such reactivity.

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Also, we need to remember that it isn't the vaccine company saying this wasn't related. There is an outside review panel as well as government review, from what I understand. So not just those that profit from it making the call. 

Although one of the doctor type people commented said they were fairly quiet about who was doing the review on whether the trial recommenced.  Obviously government (fda or whoever) will finally review the data.  But I don’t 100pc trust they will be immune to political pressure at this point, due to so many countries desperate need for normality.  
 

apparently Moderna and Pfeizzer (sp?) have released information on the way their trial is designed.  Astra Zeneca have said they plan to but haven’t yet.  I’m not sure why but I guess if the info is available and people are looking at it early any flaws might be able to be identified and ironed out before the end of the trial rather than cropping up during the review at the end.  I’m not sure.  

[Ausmumof3]

Bno: France has reported 13,215 new cases of coronavirus, by far the biggest one-day increase on record

 

[Guest]

One of my daughter's adult friends (an older woman) is in the hospital on a ventilator due to COVID. DD is having a really tough time (and I can only imagine what the woman's husband, children and grand children are going through). 

 

 

[Starr]

4 hours ago, dmmetler said:

One of my daughter's adult friends (an older woman) is in the hospital on a ventilator due to COVID. DD is having a really tough time (and I can only imagine what the woman's husband, children and grand children are going through). 

 

 

I'm so sorry. 

[lewelma]

A record 4979 covid tests were processed at MIT medical in one day on Wednesday, and they found zero cases. This is for 1100 undergrads living on campus, plus grad students, faculty, and staff. This is 2 weeks after all the students returned from all over the country. They started with 15 cases in the 1100 undergrads in the first few days, and have driven down the numbers though behavior and contract tracing. 

Edited September 19, 2020 by lewelma