wuhan - coronavirus

[Amira]

The people I know who would go to work even though they’re sick are people who would get evicted from their apartments on the first day of the month if they don’t pay their rent.  And no, they couldn’t really expect leniency from their landlords because they’re already lucky to have found someone to rent to them at all.  I will help my friends in that situation of course, but there are millions of people in that position here.  

We’ve created a system that requires sick people to go to work to survive.  Those people aren’t the problem, it’s the system we’ve created.  It’s worse here in some ways in the US, but we’ve still built a system there that relies on constantly available low-wage labor.

[Pen]

19 minutes ago, Twolittleboys said:

So I have been thinking and to me it seems that what is happening in countries so far (thinking China/Iran/Italy) is that at first not that much is done to stop the spread. It looks like a mix of "won't happen here" (of course for China it was a bit different as it probably did take a while to realize what was going on) and "it won't be so bad" (i.e. the death rate isn't that high, we'll just get through it). But then something seems to change and lead countries to serious measures to stop/delay the virus. I think it is probably a combination of infections hitting close to home (e.g. knowing someone who is sick/in danger of serious illness) and the realization how overburdened the health care system is getting.

I wonder if the same pattern will hold true in the future. So far not that much has been done in the US (or in most European countries) - will they also lock down cities, close schools for extended periods etc.?

 

 

I thought more should be done proactively, but comments from people like regentrude and gardenmom that doing so would cause riots and chaos led me to think of places like Los Angeles where I lived during the Watts riots and the South Central riots after Rodney King related trials, and then more recently Battle of Seattle protests and rancher stand offs with law enforcement up here in PNW, and I came to think that for USA that may be true, too many people would react in a chaos or riots type way.  Came to accept that extended mandated shut downs cannot happen without a majority of people feeling quite personally like it’s needed. Maybe important to them personally dead bodies in their close lives.  At which point it will be largely too late. Sadly.  

I think that corporate led closings, school district led closings, university led closings etc, will work better here.  

We probably have too much “live free or die” mentality to be effectively proactive at a government led level.  So we are stuck with mostly reactive response.

And that plus the CDC mess up with tests will very likely put us into lots more death (and ultimately a lot more and a lot longer shut downs and disruption) from the CV probably than there need have been.  

[Carrie12345]

I tried to do a little experiment with tracing my family’s contacts for the past week, even after we’ve reduced our outings.  It was hard, and I’m positive that I missed a few.

Since it’s been more than a week, I didn’t have to count the pen that my doctor handed me from his shirt pocket to sign a form! 😮 😉 

[Carrie12345]

10 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I thought more should be done proactively, but comments from people like regentrude and gardenmom that doing so would cause riots and chaos led me to think of places like Los Angeles where I lived during the Watts riots and the South Central riots after Rodney King related trials, and then more recently Battle of Seattle protests and rancher stand offs with law enforcement up here in PNW, and I came to think that for USA that may be true, too many people would react in a chaos or riots type way.  Came to accept that extended mandated shut downs cannot happen without a majority of people feeling quite personally like it’s needed. Maybe important to them personally dead bodies in their close lives.  At which point it will be largely too late. Sadly.  

I think that corporate led closings, school district led closings, university led closings etc, will work better here.  

We probably have too much “live free or die” mentality to be effectively proactive at a government led level.  So we are stuck with mostly reactive response.

And that plus the CDC mess up with tests will very likely put us into lots more death (and ultimately a lot more and a lot longer shut downs and disruption) from the CV probably than there need have been.  

I pretty much agree.  There are far too many people who would be/are in precarious territory. With more assurance, transparency, and other things that evoke trust, maybe that could be reduced, but I don’t imagine that happening.

[Ausmumof3]

54 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I thought more should be done proactively, but comments from people like regentrude and gardenmom that doing so would cause riots and chaos led me to think of places like Los Angeles where I lived during the Watts riots and the South Central riots after Rodney King related trials, and then more recently Battle of Seattle protests and rancher stand offs with law enforcement up here in PNW, and I came to think that for USA that may be true, too many people would react in a chaos or riots type way.  Came to accept that extended mandated shut downs cannot happen without a majority of people feeling quite personally like it’s needed. Maybe important to them personally dead bodies in their close lives.  At which point it will be largely too late. Sadly.  

I think that corporate led closings, school district led closings, university led closings etc, will work better here.  

We probably have too much “live free or die” mentality to be effectively proactive at a government led level.  So we are stuck with mostly reactive response.

And that plus the CDC mess up with tests will very likely put us into lots more death (and ultimately a lot more and a lot longer shut downs and disruption) from the CV probably than there need have been.  

I think we will end up with more rolling shut downs.  Targeting specific areas, businesses schools etc as required.  Unless things become really bad.

[Ausmumof3]

First 3 cases in Bangladesh

743 new cases in Iran and 49 deaths (totals 6,566 and 194)

Mayor in South Korean town says may possibly be slowing down slightly.

reuters:  In the city of Daegu, mayor Kwon Young-jin told reporters that the number of new cases in the city has dropped to below 300 for the first time since Feb. 29. “The increase in the number of infection cases is showing signs of slowing down”

 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

2 more cases in NSW one with travel history one without.  
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20200308_01.aspx

[Bambam]

8 hours ago, Pen said:

People with lung issues might want to look into NAC n acetyl cysteine .

I can’t post studies now, but there’s good research that can be found about it helping with COPD (strong evidence), asthma (weak / contradictory evidence), bronchitis (strong) , etc 

I seem to remember from one previous flu system (swine maybe? probably 10-12 years ago) that folks were strongly recommending NAC as an excellent supplement.  

[Ausmumof3]

Saudi Arabia are locking down Qatif.

they don’t seem to have many cases but maybe just being very proactive 

https://nationalpost.com/pmn/health-pmn/saudi-arabia-locks-down-qatif-province-to-prevent-coronavirus-spread/amp?__twitter_impression=true

[Ausmumof3]

Malaysia are banning all cruise ships temporarily 

https://amp.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3074161/coronavirus-malaysia-imposes-blanket-ban-cruise-ships?__twitter_impression=true

[Ausmumof3]

India are also banning Foreign cruise ships till the end of March

https://mobile.twitter.com/thefirstindia/status/1236633167869530113

[Ausmumof3]

A medical officer who saw the man who was on board the Grand Princess and later died of coronavirus says he was already sick before boarding the ship.  If proven this would mean the virus may already have been circulating in California.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-07/spread-of-coronavirus-on-grand-princess-ship-raises-public-health-alarms?_amp=true&utm_source=LAT Breaking News&utm_campaign=8057d13457-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_03_07_11_54&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_b3d39b0044-8057d13457-85490581&__twitter_impression=true

[73349]

8 hours ago, Pen said:

it May even be opposite— that kids aren’t mounting such a huge immune defense and thus not having as much cytokine damage

 

In that case, it seems it would be quite dangerous to kids with autoimmune conditions. 😕 I wonder if we'll see that as more are exposed.

Edited March 8, 2020 by whitehawk

[Pen]

15 hours ago, Farrar said:

The Snopes piece explains that all beer sales have slumped because of the global consumption and shipping issues around the virus. There's nothing to show that sales slumped as a result of the name coincidence. 

 

From Barrons:

Americans not drinking Corona beer because of the coronavirus made headlines recently. It was fodder for talk-show hosts about the collective American intellect (or lack of). Constellation Brands , the company that markets Corona beer in the U.S., shot back immediately, pointing out Corona beer sales rose 5% over the four-week period ending February 16

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

30 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

In that case, it seems it would be quite dangerous to kids with autoimmune conditions. 😕 I wonder if we'll see that as more are exposed.

 

I am surprised that we haven’t seen more reports at least for children with lung problems already—cystic fibrosis children, cigarette or vape addicted teens,  for example.   The first significant attack made by the virus in most people seems to be on the lungs. 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[CAJinBE]

We are up to 200 cases in Belgium. Some people are working from home, school trips to Italy are obviously cancelled, but nothing else seems to be happening as far as the government shutting anything down. My dh keeps hoping he will be asked to work from home, but so far that hasn't happened. There aren't enough test kits so they are only testing the most urgent cases. So who knows what the real numbers are? 

[Aura]

I read somewhere that the reason kids are not as susceptible is that they have fewer ACE-2 receptors. It is these receptors that the virus attaches to, and the older you are and the more you smoke, I believe increases the number of these receptors.

That's going by memory. I didn't save or bookmark the study, and it is now lost in the sea of coronavirus-information-land.

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Bambam said:

I seem to remember from one previous flu system (swine maybe? probably 10-12 years ago) that folks were strongly recommending NAC as an excellent supplement.  

 

I wasn’t so concerned about previous epidemic scares in my lifetime and also didn’t have home internet access at that point so I don’t know.

NAC (I’ve been clarifying N acetyl Cysteine to distinguish from N acetyl Carnitine) similar to Vitamin D has an enormous number of things it helps with in body, including immunity in general.  It is one of my personal top supplements anyway for a variety of reasons.

For this particular virus, personally, I think optimum D3 (and therefore the other fat soluble vitamins A, K2, E, needed to balance D3 and keep it safe) is more important. After D3 and its friends group, I think a reasonable amount of C (more to tolerance if actually getting sick) is next. And then I think NAC is next, for its multitude of benefits. (For me they include lessening my allergies, helping protect from toxic chemicals, reducing anxiety, increasing glutathione levels, improving lung function, reducing blood pressure (tag @Renai), ).  ... but if someone had low blood pressure or certain other conditions/ circumstances NAC could be contraindicated...also it might change blood thinness/thickness as another aspect that could make it bad for some people .  So people would need to carefully do the research for themselves and decide. 

 

4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think we will end up with more rolling shut downs.  Targeting specific areas, businesses schools etc as required.  Unless things become really bad.

 

I agree that that’s what is likely.  At least in terms of major shutdowns.

 I think we may see longer term changes in some areas where possible.  More work or university study from home that May continue longer if it is working well, for example. 

 

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

India are also banning Foreign cruise ships till the end of March

https://mobile.twitter.com/thefirstindia/status/1236633167869530113

 

I’m glad to hear that starting in some places as a general decision rather than reacting to individual ships (perhaps after 2500 people have already disembarked and scattered with some sick as in California.) 

and @Ausmumof3 thank you for all the alerts and updates!!! I find that really helpful!   I am trying to not use up my likes early in my morning, but consider yourself to be thanked for each post update!

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[MEmama]

10 minutes ago, Pen said:

and @Ausmumof3 thank you for all the alerts and updates!!! I find that really helpful!   I am trying to not use up my likes early in my morning, but consider yourself to be thanked for each post update!

 

Yes, thank you to all the research queens in hive-land! 

[Pen]

In re children

this is a study related to age and ARDS 

 

https://annalsofintensivecare.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13613-019-0529-4

 

there may be similar studies related to SARS1 or MERS.  

[Pen]

Washington state and testing situation:

https://www.geekwire.com/2020/uw-medicine-weve-processing-400-tests-coronavirus-far-can-handle-1000-day/

[Pen]

Oregon state and testing situation:

https://www.kgw.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/oregon-prepares-to-test-new-covid-19-patients/283-9a6a1f9c-372d-4389-b926-7eec3c1eae1e

While University of Washington seems to have stepped their capacity up hugely and has supposedly shared its information on new test they developed with institutions in other states, Oregon still seems to be very behind with maximum capacity of 80 in a day, and maximum number of tests in the state 1500–and very few tests done. 

 

[mlktwins]

2nd case in Northern VA

https://www.insidenova.com/headlines/second-northern-va-patient-tests-positive-for-covid--ill/article_a73e609a-614a-11ea-8fa0-ff963ca6dd80.html

I might never go on a cruise again!!!

[Pen]

California, Los Angeles Times headline:

As coronavirus overwhelms California health officials, hope of ‘containment’ fades

 

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-08/coronavirus-is-already-overwhelming-california-health-officials

 

(From the Grand Princess) “Local officials reported four cases in Placer County, two in Contra Costa County, two in Sonoma County and one each in Santa Cruz, Ventura, Madera and Alameda counties.

 

“Several passengers interviewed by the Los Angeles Times complained about a lack of communication from county health officials, with several claiming last week that they were not contacted by anyone but the cruise company and have been unable to get tested for the virus.”

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

Sorry about how enormous the headline copied above.  I can’t shrink it.  

The headline seems to me like it’s probably applicable to all 3 of the contiguous Pacific Ocean end of USA states, and very likely also to Hawaii

[sassenach]

9 hours ago, popmom said:

Up until this month my understanding was that rhinovirus was mostly responsible for the common cold. I had never even heard of coronavirus, so I don't think kids have some kind of extra exposure to coronavirus.

There are over 200 different viruses that cause the "common cold." I think about 50% are rhinovirus, there's much smaller proportion of coronavirus, and there are many other types of viruses that fall into the cold category. Last year my son caught a human meta pnuemovirus, another type of common cold virus. He ended up hospitalized and the doctor was so unfamiliar with it that he had to google it. Turned out it was exceedingly rare for anyone to end up as sick as my son did with it. Something like 90% of kids have had it before they reach 5 years old.

 

Anyhow, all that to say, I don't think exposure is what is protecting young kids. I think it's something else about the virus' mechanism. The worst outcomes are people with impaired circulation, so that's got to be a factor. I also read that if the virus stays in the throat and nose, you get the mild version, if it makes its way to the lungs, you get the severe version. They think there might be a difference in the number of specific receptors associated with this virus within people's lungs. So is the number of receptors age related? maybe. 

There's a lot to be discovered. But I predict that it won't be related to the young immune system/exposure vs old immune system. I think it will be related to the physiology of young bodies vs old bodies (IE: age related receptors, non-worn out cilia, circulatory systems, etc). 

[Pen]

Is it the case that the Grand Princess had only California passengers on its prior already disembarked voyage? No people traveling on to other states or countries? And no crew / staff changes with crew / staff members moving to other ships or land jobs? No comedians or other shipboard entertainers dashing off to other gigs? 

 

Anyway the general situation seems to be (from the LA Times article) that there is so much community spread in so many areas of California that public health system is overwhelmed and can’t keep up with contract tracing in several counties.  Other counties just received test kits recently.

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[Arcadia]

https://www.sacbee.com/community/elk-grove/article240994046.html

“Elk Grove Unified School District, the largest in Northern California, announced Saturday it will close all schools for the next week after a family whose child attends one of its schools was under a quarantine order by the Sacramento County Public Health Department, The district said in a letter to parents on Saturday.

While individual schools across California have closed due to the COVID-19 outbreak, Elk Grove is the first school district in the state to suspend instruction. Spring break, scheduled for next month, will instead be moved to next week so that no school days will be lost.

The school has roughly 64,000 students between 67 schools, according to the district. Long Beach, Fresno, Los Angeles and San Diego are the only districts in the state with more students.

After careful consideration and in light of the new information, effective immediately, the District will close its schools, cancel classes and any student-related activities from today, March 7 - March 13, 2020,” the letter said. “Please know that to date, no student or staff has tested positive for COVID-19.”

“The public’s health and safety is paramount to Elk Grove Unified School District (EGUSD) and all of our community and educational partners.”

At a news conference, EGUSD spokeswoman Xanthi Pinkerton said 11 families with members who work at or attend the district’s school’s had self-reported that they may have contracted the virus that causes COVID-19. Eight had tested negative as of Saturday; results remained outstanding for the other three.”

[Arcadia]

https://www.local10.com/news/local/2020/03/08/cdc-forces-regal-princess-to-remain-offshore-near-south-florida-until-2-crew-members-are-tested-for-coronavirus/

“FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Another Princess cruise ship is under the coronavirus microscope, and this one is located off the coast of South Florida. 

The Regal Princess was supposed to dock at Port Everglades early Sunday morning, but those plans have been put on hold due to a couple of crew members that may have been exposed to coronavirus. 

According to a letter obtained by Local 10 News, passengers aboard the Regal Princess were informed that the U.S. Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) requested information on two crew members who previously served on the Grand Princess, which has had several confirmed cases of coronavirus on board.”

[Pen]

Garlic came up in today’s Dr John Campbell video—no evidence that it is of particular help against Covid-19 .

 

I haven’t finished video yet, but decided to share this sudden thought:

 

💡but wait! If garlic created garlic odor maybe that would help to achieve needed social distancing 🙃.  I’m Joking, and yet, also maybe that’s real.  

Maybe some bad odor herbs have had folk tradition of helpfulness partly because it made people stand farther away. Which itself helps to Keep germ vampires at bay.  

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[HSmomof2]

2 hours ago, Seasider too said:

I had dinner last night with a friend who is a school nurse and she said she rarely gets sick, attributes it to years of being exposed to kid germs. 

Not a hard-science answer, though. 

I have no science to back it, but I’ve had a few jobs (in a daycare and years later in a busy public library), and for the first few months working at each place, I was constantly sick. After that, I was rarely ever sick. Same was true of my coworkers. My coworker used to joke that working there was like receiving a little vaccine every day.

[Pen]

Another bad smelling spice that I have read people used to sometimes wear in a pouch around neck to ward off sickness is asafoetida. 

https://draxe.com/nutrition/asafoetida/

(about it generally not particularly its use to keep people at bay due to odor) 😁

Axe mentions blood pressure, asthma, irritable bowel, and blood sugar regulation as among things asafoetida can possibly help with. 

 

[Farrar]

Garlic. Sigh.

A friend posted something from some fringe site with a million random citations filled with mumble jumble about how Vitamin C is the cure for it and if only they had used it on the poor elderly people in Washington maybe they could have been saved. And all her friends were all like, yes, we're all taking Emergent C and blah blah blah. And I was like are you freaking kidding me? You think they could have given them mega doses of Vit C at the nursing home and saved them?!? And she's like, well, in Thailand they were giving patients intravenous Vit C and tamiflu and it totally saved everyone. And I'm like, what. Citations? Crickets.

My inlaws, who are usually very level headed and pro-science, posted some long winded thing about how the greater danger is in canceling things and the panic that it has led to. Like, is it though? Yeah, there's a danger in the people who are hoarding N95 masks... but then the government should have stepped in and bought more for the reserve and/or regulated that behavior and they didn't. While it's annoying that things are being canceled, there are reasons for this. People who went and bought random canned goods and too much water are silly, but not hurting anyone.

[Farrar]

The psychology on the conspiracy theories for this is fascinating to me. It completely turned on a dime SO FAST. Like, before it hit here and there were consequences, the vast majority of the conspiracy theories were all like, it was made in a lab, more people are dying than they're saying, there are different variants of it and one of them is going to kill us all, etc. Then it was here and suddenly it was all, the whole thing is a hoax, it's just a bad flu, it's a pharma industry ploy to get funding, etc. 

[Farrar]

Because it happened here, the most upsetting thing I read today was a viral post by someone who claimed to be a DC resident who had traveled to Asia. I don't know if it's verified, but given everything else I'm reading in verified sources, it sounds super possible. She had a short layover in S. Korea just as the virus hit then was on to a conference for work. She didn't worry too much about it but said that every airport she visited was checking everywhere and big signs and so forth, so she was shocked when she got back to Dulles and there was nothing. Nada. Well, then she started to develop symptoms. And so did one of her colleagues. Colleague can't get checked because she's in rural Indonesia or something. She called her doctor, who said, it's not C19. Then she called DC Health Dept. Who also said, you don't qualify for testing. It's not C19. More symptoms. More calls. Still no testing. Finally, she was sick enough that she needed to go to the ER. There, they tested her for everything under the sun... but because the testing capacity is limited, they can't get approval to test her for C19. The nurse told her she probably has it. Every symptom. Ruled negative for flu a, b, strep, lots of other viruses, etc. etc. They treated her as she was getting worse, but when it was clear she was going to be okay, sent home. No quarantine orders.

Like, dang.

[Pen]

http://www.evergreenhealth.com/coronavirus

looks like they have dropped the part about Covid-19 now being considered endemic in Washington or part of Washington. 

Can anyone still find it? 

I suspect that the previous was correct information, but not supposed to be revealed to general public. 

Previous quote from this thread—I had meant to take screen shot of it. But guess I didn’t. 

From the Evergreen Health website 

Can I be tested for COVID-19 at an EvergreenHealth Urgent Care or clinic? 
In partnership with the CDC, we have updated our screening guidelines for COVID-19. We have halted performing nasopharyngeal testing in our outpatient clinics, including our urgent care locations.

Here’s why:
The CDC has determined that COVID-19 is now endemic, meaning that the virus is now considered to be regularly found in our region amongst our population. Previously, only individuals who had previously known risk factors (including history of travel, exposure to a confirmed case), were considered high risk for acquiring the disease. There is increased risk of transmission when performing any nasopharyngeal testing.

 

[Farrar]

5 minutes ago, Pen said:

http://www.evergreenhealth.com/coronavirus

looks like they have dropped the part about Covid-19 now being considered endemic in Washington or part of Washington. 

Can anyone still find it? 

I suspect that the previous was correct information, but not supposed to be revealed to general public. 

Previous quote from this thread—I had meant to take screen shot of it. But guess I didn’t. 

From the Evergreen Health website 

Can I be tested for COVID-19 at an EvergreenHealth Urgent Care or clinic? 
In partnership with the CDC, we have updated our screening guidelines for COVID-19. We have halted performing nasopharyngeal testing in our outpatient clinics, including our urgent care locations.

Here’s why:
The CDC has determined that COVID-19 is now endemic, meaning that the virus is now considered to be regularly found in our region amongst our population. Previously, only individuals who had previously known risk factors (including history of travel, exposure to a confirmed case), were considered high risk for acquiring the disease. There is increased risk of transmission when performing any nasopharyngeal testing.

 

Doesn't endemic have a specific definition medically? I would think that it would be premature to call this disease endemic, though it certainly seems to be headed that way? I'm guessing they wanted to say that exposure in the area is widespread now, which is maybe a little different?

[Twolittleboys]

Like I said earlier, it seems to me that many/most countries hesitate to impose strict limitations/act decisively but then at a certain point it changes. Not sure exactly what/when that occurs but right now we can see it in Italy where a whole region is supposed to be locked off. I wonder whether the US will follow eventually?

[Jean in Newcastle]

12 minutes ago, Pen said:

http://www.evergreenhealth.com/coronavirus

looks like they have dropped the part about Covid-19 now being considered endemic in Washington or part of Washington. 

Can anyone still find it? 

I suspect that the previous was correct information, but not supposed to be revealed to general public. 

Previous quote from this thread—I had meant to take screen shot of it. But guess I didn’t. 

From the Evergreen Health website 

Can I be tested for COVID-19 at an EvergreenHealth Urgent Care or clinic? 
In partnership with the CDC, we have updated our screening guidelines for COVID-19. We have halted performing nasopharyngeal testing in our outpatient clinics, including our urgent care locations.

Here’s why:
The CDC has determined that COVID-19 is now endemic, meaning that the virus is now considered to be regularly found in our region amongst our population. Previously, only individuals who had previously known risk factors (including history of travel, exposure to a confirmed case), were considered high risk for acquiring the disease. There is increased risk of transmission when performing any nasopharyngeal testing.

 

Honestly?  I wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in anything coming from Evergreen Health.  In the ranking of local hospitals it is not high on the list.  (It's not the worst hospital either but I would choose almost any other local hospital before going there and this was even before the COVID - 19 came on our radar. 

[Pen]

Just now, Jean in Newcastle said:

Honestly?  I wouldn't put a huge amount of stock in anything coming from Evergreen Health.  In the ranking of local hospitals it is not high on the list.  (It's not the worst hospital either but I would choose almost any other local hospital before going there and this was even before the COVID - 19 came on our radar. 

 

Meaning you think they posted screwy info, not screwed up by releasing information that was supposed to be kept secret from public?

[Pen]

13 minutes ago, Farrar said:

Doesn't endemic have a specific definition medically? I would think that it would be premature to call this disease endemic, though it certainly seems to be headed that way? I'm guessing they wanted to say that exposure in the area is widespread now, which is maybe a little different?

 

Possibly.  

Unfortunately lack of good action and transparency and screw ups by CDC doesn’t reassure me that they merely meant “widespread “.  If that were so, why not just clarify or correct that one word now instead of (apparently) removing the whole thing? 

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[Farrar]

6 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Possibly.  

Unfortunately lack of good action and transparency and screw ups by CDC doesn’t reassure me that they merely meant “widespread “.  If that were so, why not just clarify or correct that one word now instead of (apparently) removing the whole thing? 

 

Honestly, it makes sense to me that if a medical expert didn’t verify the precision of the wording that they might take it down for review. Like, it doesn’t strike me as a conspiracy as much as it does the chaos of the beginning of dealing with a new thing.

[Jean in Newcastle]

2 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Meaning you think they posted screwy info, not screwed up by releasing information that was supposed to be kept secret from public?

It probably is endemic in a general sense and I haven't seen anyone really denying that.  That's the reason behind all the advice to work from home etc.  at this time in this state.  I think that it is far more likely that they aren't testing everyone because they don't have the tests to test everyone and were premature in the first place in their promise to do so. 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Farrar said:

Honestly, it makes sense to me that if a medical expert didn’t verify the precision of the wording that they might take it down for review. Like, it doesn’t strike me as a conspiracy as much as it does the chaos of the beginning of dealing with a new thing.

 

Could be.

🤷‍♀️

I’m in PNW and would be surprised if there are not already actually many hundreds, perhaps 1000s of cases west of the Cascades. 

 

(ETA- and the part of the now missing EvergreenHealth bulletin that indicated that there were 10-20 times the number of actual cases as reported tends to fit that. 

It need not be some weird “conspiracy” to suggest that CDC May prefer not to let such information out to public, just as there is no weird “conspiracy” theory to point out that CDC stopped releasing the statistics about numbers of tests done.

 I think the term “conspiracy theory “ can be used to wrongly shut down legitimate discussion.)

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[mumto2]

1 hour ago, HSmomof2 said:

I have no science to back it, but I’ve had a few jobs (in a daycare and years later in a busy public library), and for the first few months working at each place, I was constantly sick. After that, I was rarely ever sick. Same was true of my coworkers. My coworker used to joke that working there was like receiving a little vaccine every day.

I think that it’s very true.......when we first moved to England we were sick a lot even though we were not mixing closely with anyone but church friends......we hadn’t found “our” home Ed groups yet.  A church friend was a teacher (probably why we were sick) who had moved in from another area (common there.....teachers can actually leave their school districts) and was constantly sick with everything.....she said that is what happens to all of her teacher friends after they move.  The germs are just slightly different.

Brief UK update with no quotes because hubby and I are reading all sorts of news sources plus our friend’s news, so my summary........

Good news overall......

it is very likely people 70 or so and older will be asked to stay home starting sometime this week, they have been told to prepare.  Very logical as NHS will (is already) be overwhelmed.  A volunteer force is being created to manage some of this....assuming food and prescription deliveries.

if you are sick stay home......paid sick leave from day one. 

They have revised their numbers down significantly thanks to better data.  Most hopeful is the 500,000 dead has been changed to 100,000 dead.  They expect half of all cases to occur in a three week window centering on Easter Sunday.

Data is early but U.K. fatality rate is now in line with annual flu so far.

By summer they expect to have a quick Covid19 test priced at £1 widely available.

Royal news😉. The Queen is probably going to start canceling her Garden Parties.  They start in May. 

Edited March 8, 2020 by mumto2

[Pen]

 

Quote

Good news if we look for it.

it is very likely people 70 or so and older will be asked to stay home starting sometime this week, they have been told to prepare.  Very logical as NHS will (is already) be overwhelmed.  A volunteer force is being created to manage some of this....assuming food and prescription deliveries.

if you are sick stay home......paid sick leave from day one. 

 

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By summer they expect to have a quick Covid19 test priced at £1 widely available.

 

👍👍👍👍👍

 

Edited March 8, 2020 by Pen

[sassenach]

21 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Could be.

🤷‍♀️

I’m in PNW and would be surprised if there are not already actually many hundreds, perhaps 1000s of cases west of the Cascades. 

That’s how I feel about California. The Cluster F that has been our lack of testing pretty much guarantees that we have no clue how widespread it actually is. 

[73349]

3 hours ago, Seasider too said:

Someone should do a correlation study of elementary school teachers to investigate this theory. 

I had dinner last night with a friend who is a school nurse and she said she rarely gets sick, attributes it to years of being exposed to kid germs. 

Not a hard-science answer, though. 

On one hand, lots of exposure could help teachers develop strong immune systems; but on the other, it could also weed out people whose bodies aren't up for it. I have a 40ish friend with asthma who teaches in an elementary school, and she's always on the verge of running out of sick days, or having to go back to work as soon as she's had a day or two of antibiotics, or being sent home from school when she winds up with the latest ick. It wasn't so bad, IIRC, when she taught older kids. She's looking for something else.

Edited March 8, 2020 by whitehawk

[Pawz4me]

Gates-funded program will soon offer home testing kits for new coronavirus (Seattle Times)

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Testing for the novel coronavirus in the Seattle area will get a huge boost in the coming weeks as a project funded by Bill Gates and his foundation begins offering home-testing kits that will allow people who fear they may be infected to swab their noses and send the samples back for analysis.

Results, which should be available in one to two days, will be shared with local health officials who will notify those who test positive. Via online forms, infected people can answer questions about their movements and contacts, making it easier for health officials to locate others who may need to be tested or quarantined, as well as to track the virus’ spread and identify possible hot spots.

Initially, the lab will be able to conduct about 400 tests a day, eventually expanding to thousands of tests a day, said Scott Dowell, leader of coronavirus response at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The project is ramping up as quickly as possible, but it’s not clear exactly when it will launch, he added. Among other things, software needs to be upgraded to handle the expected crush of requests, and a detailed questionnaire finalized for people who request tests.

“Although there’s a lot to be worked out, this has enormous potential to turn the tide of the epidemic,” Dowell said.

While Public Health – Seattle & King County has confirmed 71 cases and 15 deaths as of Saturday,  modeling by Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, estimated on Wednesday that the actual number of cases in the Seattle area was about 600. Unchecked, that could theoretically increase to 30,000 by the end of March, Dowell said. But steps to slow transmission can significantly reduce the number of new infections, underscoring the importance of acting quickly to protect people from the virus.

The new effort aims to leverage the formidable resources and expertise of the Gates Foundation, known for fighting disease and epidemics around the globe, to assist local health agencies struggling to keep up with a fast-moving outbreak. The Seattle area has emerged as an epicenter of the new disease, with far more cases and deaths than any other U.S. city.

“One of the most important things from our perspective, having watched and worked on this in other parts of the world, is the identification of people who are positive for the virus, so they can be safely isolated and cared for, and the identification of their contacts, who can then be quarantined,” Dowell said.

But testing has been limited until now, leaving many people frustrated — and frightened. Last week, a laboratory at UW Medicine got approval to begin processing specimens collected by physicians and other health care providers. The Gates-funded project will reduce the need for sick people to visit a doctor’s office or clinic, lowering the chance of exposing others.

The initiative grew out of the Seattle Flu Study, a 2-year-old research project based at the University of Washington to track the spread of infectious diseases like influenza. Funded with $20 million from Bill Gates’ private office, the project recruited thousands of volunteers and sent them self-test kits. The focus has now shifted entirely to the new coronavirus, using similar methods to aid the public-health response.

When the expanded testing system is up and running, people in the Seattle area who think they might be infected with SARS-CoV-2, the scientific name for the new coronavirus, can fill out a questionnaire online. If their symptoms are consistent, they can request a test kit, which will be delivered to their home within two hours. The swabs will be collected and delivered to the UW lab.

The Gates Foundation recently announced it’s committing $5 million for coronavirus response in the Seattle area, and much of that will go for the expanded testing and analysis. While the initial focus will be on the Seattle area, it could eventually expand statewide, Dowell said.

Outside of King County, one person has died and more than 30 infections have been confirmed as of Saturday.

A major goal of the project is to collect as much information as possible online, which will ease the burden on health officials who are stretched thin and hard-pressed to investigate every new case. Local resources have been focused on Life Care Center, the Kirkland nursing home that accounts for the majority of deaths.

“They simply don’t have enough epidemiologists to do the shoe-leather epidemiology, the house-to-house case identification,” Dowell said.

The Seattle Flu Study already has contributed greatly to the understanding of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the new coronavirus. As the outbreak started in China, the scientific team, co-led by Dr. Helen Chu, an infectious-disease specialist at UW Medicine, quickly developed a genetic test for the virus, similar to one they used for flu.

 

[fairfarmhand]

Now it’s in Nashville. Just what a tornado struck place with 10,000 volunteers from outside areas needs...