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gardenmom5

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@Pen @Renai

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2236544-coronavirus-are-there-two-strains-and-is-one-more-deadly/
“A separate analysis by the team suggests that the L-type was derived from the older S-type. The first strain is likely to have emerged around the time the virus jumped from animals to humans. The second emerged soon after that, says the team. Both are involved in the current global outbreak. The fact that the L-type is more prevalent suggests that it is “more aggressive” than the S-type, the team say.

“There do appear to be two different strains,” says Ravinder Kanda at Oxford Brookes University in the UK. “[The L-type] might be more aggressive in transmitting itself, but we have no idea yet how these underlying genetic changes will relate to disease severity,” she says.

“I think it’s a fact that there are two strains,” says Erik Volz at Imperial College London. “It’s normal for viruses to undergo evolution when they are transmitted to a new host.”

It is vital to know how many strains of the virus exist. Around the world, multiple groups are working on a vaccine for the virus. Any vaccine will need to target features that are found in both strains of the virus in order to be effective.

The differences between the two identified strains are tiny. In fact, they can’t really be considered to be separate “strains”, says Jones. And many of the genetic differences won’t affect the production of proteins, and so won’t change the way the virus works, or the symptoms it causes, he says. One is not more deadly than the other.

“In all practical terms, the virus is as it was when it originally emerged,” says Jones. “There’s no evidence it is getting any worse.” The sentiment is echoed by the World Health Organization. The study by Tang and colleagues only suggests there is some genetic diversity of the virus – it doesn’t mean it is changing, a representative told New Scientist.

But we can’t say for sure. The study only represents 103 cases. A larger, online database has collated the sequencing results from 166 cases. Both represent a drop in the ocean of the almost 100,000 officially reported cases.

Jones says we can expect more strains to emerge. Epidemiologists generally agree that, once a person is infected with the coronavirus, they are unlikely to be infected again – unless the virus mutates to allow it to overcome the immune system’s defences.”

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9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

They’re seriously going to quarantine the crew on ship again?  Maybe spread out in cabins it will be slightly safer.  But I imagine they’re still going to have to have food prep and sewage operations etc done so at least some will be working together to keep the ship functional.

 

Trump doesn't want them on land and driving up the numbers.  

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5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

They’re seriously going to quarantine the crew on ship again?  Maybe spread out in cabins it will be slightly safer.  But I imagine they’re still going to have to have food prep and sewage operations etc done so at least some will be working together to keep the ship functional.

 

I was thinking food can be drop shipped, like crates of microwaveable meals. The general comments on Facebook were in the line of “not again” since Grand Princess and Diamond Princess are from the same company.

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3 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Trump doesn't want them on land and driving up the numbers.  

People commenting on Facebook suggested Alcatraz as quarantine for the whole ship. They are scared of what happened to Japan from Diamond Princess. 
SF people commenting on Facebook don’t want the ship to dock at SF. The SF  St Patrick’s Day Parade is cancelled.

Edited by Arcadia
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A friend of a friend is on the Grand Princess (is that the right name of the ship stuck off San Francisco?) and reports she is hating life. She and her husband are stuck inside their small cabin which only has 1 chair aside from the bed, and apparently her dh is binge watching horror movies! Anyway, I heard through this grape vine that only the crew had been tested, not any of the passengers.

Those poor people need to be brought off the ship -- I keep thinking about the recirculating air in most of those cabins. But where will they be allowed to quarantine?  I'm a bit horrified by the panic in some communities over turning an empty apartment building or hotel into a quarantine station. The friend was resigned to self quarantining in her own home -- guess that isn't an option? 

The parents of another friend was on the ship that couldn't dock anywhere until Cambodia finally let them in. They are home. And healthy. 

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My county Fire Department has a sense of humor 

“Don't forget...we'll lose an hour of hand washing this weekend. 
Remember to change the batteries in your smoke alarm!

If you or someone you know is physically unable to test or maintain their smoke alarms, we can help. Give us a call at (408) 378-4010 or email us at info@sccfd.org.”

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3 hours ago, Joker said:

Apparently the passengers on the cruise ship in California found out that 21 of them had the virus by watching Pence on the news. 🤦‍♀️ We really suck at handling this.

um...it sounds like the cruise ship company really sucks at handling this. I mean...they released the info before telling the passengers

Edited by popmom
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46 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Ah is that what it is. I thought  maybe they might be foreign nationals 

There are more than 3,500 people aboard the Grand Princess -- 2,422 guests and 1,111 crew members, Princess Cruises said. They represent 54 nationalities.”

39 minutes ago, JennW in SoCal said:

Anyway, I heard through this grape vine that only the crew had been tested, not any of the passengers.

“A total of 46 people on the ship were tested with 21 testing positive for the infection, 24 were negative and one was inconclusive, Pence said during a Coronavirus Task Force press briefing. 
Of the 21 people who tested positive, 19 were crew members of the ship and two were passengers.”
 
37 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I guess if they don't test any of the passanger then the numbers don't go up. 


“Pence said Friday he's working with California Gov. Gavin Newsom, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health and Human Services to develop a plan for the Grand Princess to return to a "non-commercial port." 

"All passengers and crew will be tested for the coronavirus," Pence said. "Those that need to be quarantined will be quarantined. Those that require additional medical attention will receive it."
 
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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Speaking of phone typing errors is anyone else noticing autocorrect on iPhone seems to run super slow on the forum?  For some reason mine is running miles behind my typing meaning I keep missing stuff it’s corrected wrong.

Mine runs slow on Skype, WhatsApp, and Facebook messenger. I type UK English, US English, Deutsch, Chinese though so my poor phone is probably confused.

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I don't know if anyone posted this yet

two deaths in Florida.

59 minutes ago, popmom said:

um...it sounds like the cruise ship company really sucks at handling this. I mean...they released the info before telling the passengers

this is the same company as the Diamond Princess, and that had a super sucky quarantine off Yokohama.  The Japanese virologist who boarded the ship for one relatively brief visit - put himself into self-quarantine because it was so bad he was scared of giving to to his family.

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3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

was he treated covid-19 patients?  sadly, it's not uncommon for medical personal - even when conscientious - to catch these viruses.

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From the Evergreen Health website 


Can I be tested for COVID-19 at an EvergreenHealth Urgent Care or clinic? 
In partnership with the CDC, we have updated our screening guidelines for COVID-19. We have halted performing nasopharyngeal testing in our outpatient clinics, including our urgent care locations.

Here’s why:
The CDC has determined that COVID-19 is now endemic, meaning that the virus is now considered to be regularly found in our region amongst our population. Previously, only individuals who had previously known risk factors (including history of travel, exposure to a confirmed case), were considered high risk for acquiring the disease. There is increased risk of transmission when performing any nasopharyngeal testing.

 

so they are just not testing now?

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

@daijobu

Main link https://healthalerts.stanford.edu

“For the final two weeks of the winter quarter, beginning Monday, March 9, classes at Stanford will not meet in person. To the extent feasible, we will be moving classes to online formats in place of in-person instruction. Any winter quarter final exams that were scheduled to be administered in person will need to be administered in take-home format, complying with university rules for such exams.

We recognize that this is a significant adjustment for many instructors. We are taking this step after thoughtful consideration, and I have been in touch today with the chair of the Faculty Senate, who concurs. We are committed to providing the support to help instructors in this effort. The teachanywhere.stanford.edu website has many resources to assist, and further guidance and tools will be provided shortly through the Office of the Vice Provost for Faculty Development, Teaching and Learning. (Additional information also will be coming soon to principal investigators regarding steps they should take with regard to ensuring research continuity.)

Given the timing of this announcement, we are encouraging instructors with a scheduled class on Monday, March 9, to cancel that session if needed in order to have the time to make the necessary course changes. In addition, we encourage all instructors to email students in their courses this weekend to let them know their course plans. For the balance of the quarter:

  • To the extent feasible, instructors will be expected to make their course content, including materials used in class, available via Canvas or other online options.
  • In some cases, when the nature of a class or exam is not suited to remote delivery, other options, including submitting grades based on work conducted to this point, may be used. However, instructors are encouraged to provide students the opportunity to demonstrate their knowledge at the end of the quarter, and CTL staff are available to help instructors develop these opportunities.
  • Faculty should consult with their department chairs in determining the most appropriate actions to take, placing student health and success first in all decision making.
  • Where online instruction takes place, students will be expected to attend classes online at their regularly scheduled time, though we will continue to encourage instructors to be flexible with attendance and exam policies for any students who are ill.

Though classes will not be meeting in person, the university will remain open. Our existing guidance to employees remains in place. In situations where work can temporarily be performed from home or an alternate location, we encourage employees and managers to work together to identify possible telecommuting opportunities. Many Stanford employees are needed physically on campus, of course, and services for our community must continue. We encourage everyone to continue good health practices that minimize the possibility of virus spread.

In addition, I want to let you know that we are canceling the in-person Admit Weekend event, for prospective undergraduates who have been or will be offered admission to Stanford, scheduled for the weekend of April 23-26. While we are disappointed to take this step, we believe it is prudent given the continued spread of COVID-19 and changing travel conditions. We will be working, however, to develop replacement programming, and we’re excited by the possibilities for an innovative and compelling virtual experience for our admitted students to the Class of 2024.

The Office of Undergraduate Admission and Financial Aid is also canceling campus tours and information sessions for prospective students as of Monday, March 9, and will re-evaluate its ability to host these offerings after April 15. The Visitor Center will remain open and visitors will be able to take self-guided tours, but there will be no group tours or events.” https://news.stanford.edu/2020/03/06/letter-provost-drell-covid-19-updates-online-classes-admit-weekend/

 

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https://abc7news.com/health/live-coronavirus-updates-princess-cruise-ship-moving-closer-to-ca-due-to-sick-passenger/5906450/
“9:25 p.m.

Grand Princess cruise ship moving 20 miles off coast of California due to sick passenger



The Grand Princess cruise ship with 21 confirmed cases of coronavirus is moving closer to the coast of California. In video obtained by ABC7, the captain can be heard saying the ship will move 20 miles off the coast of San Francisco south the Farallon Islands due to a sick passenger. He goes on to say that the Coast Guard has been notified about this situation and there could be a possible airlift tonight.”

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My daughter has received notifications from 2 of her professors that theIr classes will be moved to an online format when classes resume after spring break.  

My son’s college has cancelled his team’s trip to CA.  There is also speculation that the school will cancel spring break and finish the semester early   

 

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31 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@daijobu

“For the final two weeks of the winter quarter, beginning Monday, March 9, classes at Stanford will not meet in person. To the extent feasible, we will be moving classes to online formats in place of in-person instruction.

In addition, I want to let you know that we are canceling the in-person Admit Weekend event, for prospective undergraduates who have been or will be offered admission to Stanford, scheduled for the weekend of April 23-26. 

 

Yesterday, MIT cancelled Campus Preview Weekend and all international travel by professors and students.  Also, although classes are still running, all other gatherings of greater than 150 are cancelled.  All international students have been asked not to go home if possible over spring break.  And if they do, to plan to self isolate for 2 weeks when they return. I think MIT is running scared about dense dorm housing with a population of 10% internationals. It is just a breeding ground for infection. They have not yet cancelled graduation, but have said they will consider it closer to the time. 

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https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/coronavirus-covid-19-grand-princess-cruise-ship-12512318?cid=FBcna

“LOS ANGELES: Among the 2,400 passengers stranded off the California coast on a cruise ship carrying at least 21 people infected with coronavirus, few people aboard likely have more to lose than Kari Kolstoe, a retiree from North Dakota with stage-4 cancer.

Kolstoe, 60, said she and her husband, Paul, 61, had looked forward to the Grand Princess cruise to Hawaii as a brief, badly needed respite from the grind of medical intervention she has endured for the past 18 months.

Now facing the prospect of a two-week quarantine far from their home in Grand Forks, she worries their getaway cruise will end up causing a fateful delay in her next round of chemotherapy, scheduled to begin early next week.

"It's very unsettling," she said in a mobile phone interview from the ship on Friday. "It's still a worry that I'm going to not get back."

Besides the implications for cancer treatment is the fear of falling ill from exposure to a respiratory virus especially dangerous to older people with chronic health conditions and suppressed immunity.

"I'm very at risk for this," said Kolstoe, whose rare form of neuroendocrine cancer has spread throughout her body. "Me staying on here for a lot of reasons isn't good."”

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

From the Evergreen Health website 


Can I be tested for COVID-19 at an EvergreenHealth Urgent Care or clinic? 
In partnership with the CDC, we have updated our screening guidelines for COVID-19. We have halted performing nasopharyngeal testing in our outpatient clinics, including our urgent care locations.

Here’s why:
The CDC has determined that COVID-19 is now endemic, meaning that the virus is now considered to be regularly found in our region amongst our population. Previously, only individuals who had previously known risk factors (including history of travel, exposure to a confirmed case), were considered high risk for acquiring the disease. There is increased risk of transmission when performing any nasopharyngeal testing.

 

so they are just not testing now?

 

Where did you find that?   I searched and don’t see it. 

It almost sounds like the urgent care centers and clinics aren’t doing any nasopharyngeal testing at all anymore (for anything) because of danger to medical staff. 

I don’t know how EvergreenHealth urgent care or clinic relates to the hospital “Evergreen Hospital” — whether they are related or just have similar names.  

Maybe someone from Washington will know.  “Evergreen” is a pretty common name in Washington. 

The whole thing seems odd since I didn’t know urgent care centers were screening for Covid-19 at all in the first place.  I thought if people called and said they thought they might have Covid-19, they were supposed to be sent to a designated hospital (such as Evergreen Hospital) designated for such cases.

?????

To me it now looks like (from what you quoted) that  if any patients have any symptoms that indicate a need for nasopharyngeal testing they have to go to a specialized facility designated to handle potential Covid-19, such as Evergreen Hospital, presumably Because risk of staff getting Covid-19 is now too great from swabbing throat or nose, even if something else like flu or strep were suspected. 

Last I heard was that Evergreen Hospital was down to one last critical care bed and that whole floors or wings of several Seattle area hospitals are being converted into negative pressure areas to be able to receive overflow Covid-19 patients. 

Edited by Pen
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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

From the Evergreen Health website 


Can I be tested for COVID-19 at an EvergreenHealth Urgent Care or clinic? 
In partnership with the CDC, we have updated our screening guidelines for COVID-19. We have halted performing nasopharyngeal testing in our outpatient clinics, including our urgent care locations.

Here’s why:
The CDC has determined that COVID-19 is now endemic, meaning that the virus is now considered to be regularly found in our region amongst our population. Previously, only individuals who had previously known risk factors (including history of travel, exposure to a confirmed case), were considered high risk for acquiring the disease. There is increased risk of transmission when performing any nasopharyngeal testing.

 

so they are just not testing now?

 

4 minutes ago, Pen said:

Where did you find that?   I searched and don’t see it. 

https://www.evergreenhealth.com/coronavirus

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10 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Where did you find that?   I searched and don’t see it. 

It almost sounds like the urgent care centers and clinics aren’t doing any nasopharyngeal testing at all anymore (for anything) because of danger to medical staff. 

I don’t know how EvergreenHealth urgent care or clinic relates to the hospital “Evergreen Hospital” — whether they are related or just have similar names.  

Maybe someone from Washington will know.  “Evergreen” is a pretty common name in Washington. 

The whole thing seems odd since I didn’t know urgent care centers were screening for Covid-19 at all in the first place.  I thought if people called and said they thought they might have Covid-19, they were supposed to be sent to a designated hospital (such as Evergreen Hospital) designated for such cases.

?????

To me it now looks like (from what you quoted) that  if any patients have any symptoms that indicate a need for nasopharyngeal testing they have to go to a specialized facility designated to handle potential Covid-19, such as Evergreen Hospital, presumably Because risk of staff getting Covid-19 is now too great from swabbing throat or nose, even if something else like flu or strep were suspected. 

Last I heard was that Evergreen Hospital was down to one last critical care bed and that whole floors or wings of several Seattle area hospitals are being converted into negative pressure areas to be able to receive overflow Covid-19 patients. 

But it said they won’t be testing because it’s endemic in the community as well as the risk factors.  Feels a little early to say that.  Yes there’s community spread but we’re still trying to slow it down a lot or even stop it.  Right?!

plus how do we ever get decent data if even western countries don’t test thoroughly!  It’s like we just don’t want to know.

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1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

https://abc7news.com/health/live-coronavirus-updates-princess-cruise-ship-moving-closer-to-ca-due-to-sick-passenger/5906450/
“9:25 p.m.

Grand Princess cruise ship moving 20 miles off coast of California due to sick passenger



The Grand Princess cruise ship with 21 confirmed cases of coronavirus is moving closer to the coast of California. In video obtained by ABC7, the captain can be heard saying the ship will move 20 miles off the coast of San Francisco south the Farallon Islands due to a sick passenger. He goes on to say that the Coast Guard has been notified about this situation and there could be a possible airlift tonight.”

Weird?  Surely a sick passenger wouldn’t spread coronavirus from on board the boat to shore without anyone leaving?  Why the need to move 20 miles out?

 

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5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Weird?  Surely a sick passenger wouldn’t spread coronavirus from on board the boat to shore without anyone leaving?  Why the need to move 20 miles out?

I think they may be moving towards rather than away from SF because the first sentence says they are moving closer. 

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7 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Weird?  Surely a sick passenger wouldn’t spread coronavirus from on board the boat to shore without anyone leaving?  Why the need to move 20 miles out?

 

The ship is moving closer to the shore to facilitate an airlift, not moving further out. 

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from the EvergreenHealth site linked above 

https://www.evergreenhealth.com/coronavirus

Is interesting to. I guess that means we can now officially multiply confirmed cases by 10 or 20 to get a better picture of actual cases. 

I suspect that may still be low. 

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31 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Where did you find that?   I searched and don’t see it. 

It almost sounds like the urgent care centers and clinics aren’t doing any nasopharyngeal testing at all anymore (for anything) because of danger to medical staff. 

I don’t know how EvergreenHealth urgent care or clinic relates to the hospital “Evergreen Hospital” — whether they are related or just have similar names.  

Maybe someone from Washington will know.  “Evergreen” is a pretty common name in Washington. 

 

Last I heard was that Evergreen Hospital was down to one last critical care bed and that whole floors or wings of several Seattle area hospitals are being converted into negative pressure areas to be able to receive overflow Covid-19 patients. 

Evergreen Health is the new name of Evergreen Hospital.  They're the same place.  they've added onto it significantly since it opened in 1972.

- because they've added clinics, etc. they changed the name. 

Edited by gardenmom5
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35 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

But it said they won’t be testing because it’s endemic in the community as well as the risk factors.  Feels a little early to say that.  Yes there’s community spread but we’re still trying to slow it down a lot or even stop it.  Right?!

plus how do we ever get decent data if even western countries don’t test thoroughly!  It’s like we just don’t want to know.

 

Well, I totally agree that we need decent testing and data and aren’t getting it!!!

And I don’t know whether CDC has declared Covid-19 endemic and if so, endemic to where exactly.

I do know though that what an “urgent care” or “clinic” can  do is limited.  Urgent Cares  are often little walk in centers near shops or other supermarkets or other businesses, or residential areas to make it easier for people to get seen for usually fairly minor problems.  “Clinics” are often a name given for things less urgent than urgent cares, and often lower cost and sooner availability than a small doctor’s practice (what in England is called a “surgery”, but in US a “surgery” is an operating theater.) Though “clinic” can also be the name for high power specialty care at a medical school hospital. 

Anyway an “urgent care” or typical “clinic” not being able to handle walk-in patients who might have Covid-19 simply seems accurate and sensible. My thought would be of course they can’t.   The urgent care centers I have been to can handle a sprained ankle decently usually. Or a bad cold.  Something like that.   When my son got hit in eye by baseball last year he was supposed to go to “emergency room” (Like A&E in England) in case he had eye damage or concussion. It was considered potentially to be more than  urgent care could handle. 

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19 hours ago, SanDiegoMom in VA said:

Three students being tested at UCLA.  Hoping they just had a common cold and are taking precautionary measures...

https://dailybruin.com/2020/03/06/three-students-being-tested-for-covid-19-amid-increased-university-precaution/


https://newsroom.ucla.edu/stories/coronavirus-information-for-the-ucla-campus-community

“STATUS: The three students who were being tested for COVID-19 all tested negative for the disease.

9:10 p.m., March 6

UCLA Chancellor Gene Block sent the following message to the campus community: 

Following up on my email early Friday morning, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (LACDPH) has just informed UCLA that results have come back negative for the three students who were being tested for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).  

There are no confirmed cases of COVID-19 at UCLA at this time. 

At the same time, we must be prepared for a confirmed case in the future, given the growing number of cases in our state and city. We will continue to remain prepared and ready.”

 

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@Ausmumof3 This is the type thing an urgent care can be — just a little walk-in place probably in midst of other businesses (photo): 

https://www.issaquahreporter.com/news/evergreenhealth-opens-new-urgent-care-center-in-sammamish/

as distinct from hospital: 

https://www.travelnursesource.com/resources/hospital/3728/evergreen-hospital-medical-center

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40 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

image.thumb.jpeg.5f4dcbb2fce267fd8763e9da550d4f6a.jpeg

 

Looks like it’s moving along at ascending pace in most of those countries.  I want to go check what’s happening in Malaysia.

What is happening in Australia in terms of allowing the students to come?

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Just now, Pen said:

 

Looks like it’s moving along at ascending pace in most of those countries.  I want to go check what’s happening in Malaysia.

What is happening in Australia in terms of allowing the students to come?

Good question I haven’t heard anything recently 

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“The Party Secretary of #Wuhan Wang Zhonglin says the city will launch broad ‘gratitude education’ for residents to express: ‘thanks to the General Secretary (Xi Jinping), thanks to the Party, listen to the Party, follow the Party, create powerful positive energy’.”

Was tweeted from a correspondent of ABC (Australian version)

I have seen similar from other sources with a slightly different translation 

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I can|t believe the US is just not testing so the numbers look bad (that's what it seems like). Just looking at the number of deaths (and assuming a fairly consistent death rate) it seems pretty obvious that more than a few cases are being missed:

South Korea has around 6700 cases and 44 deaths
Italy has around 4600 cases and 197 deaths
Switzerland has around 200 cases and 1 death
US has around 330 cases and (I think) 17 deaths

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3 hours ago, Pen said:

 

1 hour ago, Twolittleboys said:

I can|t believe the US is just not testing so the numbers look bad (that's what it seems like). Just looking at the number of deaths (and assuming a fairly consistent death rate) it seems pretty obvious that more than a few cases are being missed:

 

 

Im not yet willing to give up hope of USA testing more as ... something 

 

maybe some test will be developed where people can buy a home kit personally spit in to it and send it off for evaluation  — 

 

 

1 hour ago, Twolittleboys said:

South Korea has around 6700 cases and 44 deaths
Italy has around 4600 cases and 197 deaths
Switzerland has around 200 cases and 1 death
US has around 330 cases and (I think) 17 deaths

 

“confirmed cases representing between 5-10% of all infections in the community”

???

 

(multiply confirmed case number by 10 or 20

...

Or, oh, wth, multiply by 200)

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

@Ausmumof3 This is the type thing an urgent care can be — just a little walk-in place probably in midst of other businesses (photo): 

https://www.issaquahreporter.com/news/evergreenhealth-opens-new-urgent-care-center-in-sammamish/

as distinct from hospital: 

https://www.travelnursesource.com/resources/hospital/3728/evergreen-hospital-medical-center

We don’t tend to have that so much.  It’s emergency or doctors.  Some doctors run a drop in clinic and I guess some country areas have nursing posts.  I don’t actually know if that’s the same across Australia or just my state.

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The doctor from Vic who saw 70 patients while Ill before testing positive for coronavirus is Missy Higgins dad.  Don’t know if she’s know in the US but she’s a reasonably well known singer here.  DH and I have been to one of her concerts.  
 

not much to do with coronavirus I know but a bizarre connection.

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

 

“confirmed cases representing between 5-10% of all infections in the community”

???

 

(multiply confirmed case number by 10 or 20

...

Or, oh, wth, multiply by 200)

 

And let's not forget that there is a significant delay built in - i.e. people dying now probably were infected about 2 weeks ago. They (and all the other cases from then with less severe illness) went on to infect several others who again probably have infected others since then. So with more wide-spread testing the US number would likely look pretty daunting.

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