Omicron anecdata?

[HSmomof2]

On 5/1/2022 at 11:03 PM, HSmomof2 said:

My dad tested positive today for Covid. He’s 74, fairly healthy, and double boosted. Currently has mild symptoms—sore throat, stuffy/runny nose, cough. Hoping it stays mild and my mom avoids it. She’s also double boosted but has other health conditions that would make her higher risk. Unfortunately, dd(16) visited them briefly yesterday (less than 15 min) before my dad was feeling ill. She’ll test in 5 days unless she develops symptoms before.

 

ETA: Dad’s primary care is prescribing Paxlovid for him as well as monoclonal antibodies. 

Update: My dad is feeling much better. He took 5 days of Paxlovid, and is now 12 days past symptom onset and says he’s feeling 95% better, just a little tired. My mom is still testing negative and has not had any symptoms, even though she didn’t really isolate from my dad. Dd has also stayed negative and has no symptoms. 

[KeriJ]

On 5/8/2022 at 11:05 AM, TCB said:

Have they considered the possibility that they had an easier time with Omicron because they had the booster? 

In our family and circle, the vaccines/boosters made no difference in the severity of omicron. 

[mommyoffive]

Rebounding after Paxlovid - by Katelyn Jetelina (substack.com)

Edited May 10, 2022 by mommyoffive

[ScoutTN]

17 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

The next wave - just in time to ruin all the graduations, weddings, recitals etc. Ugh! 

[Tenaj]

17 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

But are hospitalizations and deaths going up based on this wave?  I'm having a hard time estimating risk.  Are these mild, asymptomatic, or serious cases?  Are the hospitals being overrun again or are people able to handle this variant fairly well (assuming vaccination or assuming vaccination plus one booster - or two)?  

[mommyoffive]

CDC maps

[Ali in OR]

Dd tested negative today so she has been sprung from Covid jail at her college--just in time for her honors thesis presentation tomorrow! Yay!

[TCB]

16 hours ago, KeriJ said:

In our family and circle, the vaccines/boosters made no difference in the severity of omicron. 

Interesting. How did you come to that conclusion?

[The Governess]

Re: hospitalizations

I live in CA - that CDC map shows my county of around 1 mill people in a red zone. We have 15 people hospitalized with Covid currently. It was 350+ in January when Omicron was at its peak. 
 

 

 

[TexasProud]

4 hours ago, The Governess said:

Re: hospitalizations

I live in CA - that CDC map shows my county of around 1 mill people in a red zone. We have 15 people hospitalized with Covid currently. It was 350+ in January when Omicron was at its peak. 
 

 

 

Yes, this is where I struggle. Our hospitalizations are practically nothing from Covid. So, yes, I know, especially at the beginning it was NOT like the flu.  But now, it feels like we have gotten to the point where it is. People get severely ill from the flu, but I never worried about it. I got my yearly shot. I will get my yearly booster for Covid.  I will not do more than that and chase strains and best time, etc. It is what it is. My mom and step-dad got their second booster about a week before I took her on the plane to visit my sister. 

But I just don't see what else we are supposed to do.  I don't hunker down for any other illness. (I am not saying go out when you are sick, though to be honest, before Covid, I taught school if I didn't feel great. Just what you did.) It feels like just living with it at this point.  I probably will get it at some point, though maybe I will be lucky. I haven't ever gotten the flu since I started getting the flu shot. Maybe it will be the same with Covid.

[KeriJ]

8 hours ago, TCB said:

Interesting. How did you come to that conclusion?

Because there was a mix of vaccination status. Yet everyone had similar symptoms and duration. 

I wouldn't say the same thing for Delta and before though. Then I saw a difference in church members families between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. But I am not seeing that at all with Omicron. 

 

[I talk to the trees]

15 hours ago, Tenaj said:

But are hospitalizations and deaths going up based on this wave?  I'm having a hard time estimating risk.  Are these mild, asymptomatic, or serious cases?  Are the hospitals being overrun again or are people able to handle this variant fairly well (assuming vaccination or assuming vaccination plus one booster - or two)?  

According to Johns Hopkins, the overall cases are up by 53%  and deaths are up by 15% in the past 14 days. I follow this data on the Guardian's website, because the actual Johns Hopkins site is so dreadfully slow to load, and locks up if you breathe too loudly. Despite its glitchy nature, I have found the  JH site to have the clearest and most comprehensive data available.

 

[Teaching3bears]

A doctor that posts videos about COVID research said that long COVID was higher with Delta than BA.1 but higher with BA.2 than Delta.  This research looked at people with 3 vaccines.

[catz]

3 minutes ago, Teaching3bears said:

A doctor that posts videos about COVID research said that long COVID was higher with Delta than BA.1 but higher with BA.2 than Delta.  This research looked at people with 3 vaccines.

Interesting.  I'm surprised they have enough data on ba.2 to conclude this.  It would be interesting where they are getting that data from.  I feel like there's a difference between being tired and rebuilding stamina for 4-6 weeks which we have had with the flu.  And things that linger 3+ months and require specialists, etc.  

I also wonder if it correlates with being further out from booster doses, etc.

I got a 4th dose 2 weeks 2 days ago and I have to admit I'm trying to live it up a bit right now.  Also the weather is fantastic so it's mostly just being outside and seeing more of humanity.  

[KSera]

2 minutes ago, catz said:

Interesting.  I'm surprised they have enough data on ba.2 to conclude this.  It would be interesting where they are getting that data from. 

I would be interested to see as well, as I didn’t  think ba.2 had been around long enough for there to be research on long-term effects from it yet.

[mommyoffive]

Growing share of COVID-19 deaths are among vaccinated people (wisn.com)

 

 

[KSera]

34 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Growing share of COVID-19 deaths are among vaccinated people (wisn.com)

 

 

Argh, really irresponsibly reported. I have a good link somewhere that explains this expected phenomenon in light of the fact that the population is increasingly vaccinated. I will look for that and post it because surely people are going to read this and think it means the being vaccinated means you're more likely to die of covid 🤦‍♀️ when it's overwhelmingly the opposite.

Found it. Good explanation of Base Rate Fallacy:

Edited May 11, 2022 by KSera

[Teaching3bears]

8 hours ago, KSera said:

I would be interested to see as well, as I didn’t  think ba.2 had been around long enough for there to be research on long-term effects from it yet.

Good point.  I think the research might have been from the UK.

[Ausmumof3]

9 hours ago, catz said:

Interesting.  I'm surprised they have enough data on ba.2 to conclude this.  It would be interesting where they are getting that data from.  I feel like there's a difference between being tired and rebuilding stamina for 4-6 weeks which we have had with the flu.  And things that linger 3+ months and require specialists, etc.  

I also wonder if it correlates with being further out from booster doses, etc.

I got a 4th dose 2 weeks 2 days ago and I have to admit I'm trying to live it up a bit right now.  Also the weather is fantastic so it's mostly just being outside and seeing more of humanity.  

Coronacast had a good podcast on the study yesterday 

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/yes-you-can-get-long-covid-if-youre-triple-vaxxed/13875284

 

There is usually a transcript if you don’t have listening time. Normally they have links to studies etc but for some reason they don’t this time.

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

9 hours ago, KSera said:

I would be interested to see as well, as I didn’t  think ba.2 had been around long enough for there to be research on long-term effects from it yet.

Our first school term wave was BA2 I think. It hit here and the UK before the US I think. But data would only be three months or so.

[Ausmumof3]

9 hours ago, catz said:

Interesting.  I'm surprised they have enough data on ba.2 to conclude this.  It would be interesting where they are getting that data from.  I feel like there's a difference between being tired and rebuilding stamina for 4-6 weeks which we have had with the flu.  And things that linger 3+ months and require specialists, etc.  

I also wonder if it correlates with being further out from booster doses, etc.

I got a 4th dose 2 weeks 2 days ago and I have to admit I'm trying to live it up a bit right now.  Also the weather is fantastic so it's mostly just being outside and seeing more of humanity.  

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/selfreportedlongcovidafterinfectionwiththeomicronvariant/6may2022

Looks like they only had four to eight weeks of data.

Anecdotally I know a number of people here saying they still feel really flat. And these aren’t the hypochondriac type. A couple of my students that had it seem more tired and flat but I have no idea whether there’s other stuff going on that could be causing that.

Edited May 11, 2022 by Ausmumof3

[mommyoffive]

COVID-19 hospital admissions, deaths expected to keep climbing in US (msn.com)

[mommyoffive]

Experts wonder why 1 million COVID deaths became normalized (msn.com)

Half of all US states saw more deaths than births, likely driven by COVID - ABC News (go.com)

[YaelAldrich]

My bonus son (my oldest DS' best friend who lives by us a bunch when he's not in college) came down with COVID (he got COVID the first time Dec 2020) two days before college finished for the year.  Thank goodness he finished his exams already.  But we were to pick him up today and take him to his dad's place.  He called us yesterday afternoon sounding horrible and told us he got COVID.  We called the university hoping they would be able to put him in quarantine housing and we could pick him and his stuff next week.  But quarantine housing ended today at 10am.  And he was to leave the dorms by 10 am this morning as well.  We tried to find him a place to crash in his area but everything was filled because of commencement. We had no choice; we took two cars to pick him and his stuff up.  We took our youngest because he just got boosted three weeks ago.

Our youngest and I took his stuff to his dad's house and my husband followed a while later windows open the entire 120 mile ride home.  I hope they don't get COVID from him; two elderly and one cancer survivor in the Dad's house.  Our Bonus Son looked like hell; diarrhea and throwing up in addition to breathing issues.  We all double masked (KF96+surgical mask over it).  Pray hard friends.  We really don't want COVID. 

[Ausmumof3]

38 minutes ago, YaelAldrich said:

My bonus son (my oldest DS' best friend who lives by us a bunch when he's not in college) came down with COVID (he got COVID the first time Dec 2020) two days before college finished for the year.  Thank goodness he finished his exams already.  But we were to pick him up today and take him to his dad's place.  He called us yesterday afternoon sounding horrible and told us he got COVID.  We called the university hoping they would be able to put him in quarantine housing and we could pick him and his stuff next week.  But quarantine housing ended today at 10am.  And he was to leave the dorms by 10 am this morning as well.  We tried to find him a place to crash in his area but everything was filled because of commencement. We had no choice; we took two cars to pick him and his stuff up.  We took our youngest because he just got boosted three weeks ago.

Our youngest and I took his stuff to his dad's house and my husband followed a while later windows open the entire 120 mile ride home.  I hope they don't get COVID from him; two elderly and one cancer survivor in the Dad's house.  Our Bonus Son looked like hell; diarrhea and throwing up in addition to breathing issues.  We all double masked (KF96+surgical mask over it).  Pray hard friends.  We really don't want COVID. 

I really hope you don’t get it. We transported someone who tested positive for covid the next day and I insisted on masks and windows cracked without knowing he was feeling off. Over an hour in the car and we didn’t get it so fingers crossed you are ok!

[kbutton]

1 hour ago, YaelAldrich said:

Our youngest and I took his stuff to his dad's house and my husband followed a while later windows open the entire 120 mile ride home.  I hope they don't get COVID from him; two elderly and one cancer survivor in the Dad's house.  Our Bonus Son looked like hell; diarrhea and throwing up in addition to breathing issues.  We all double masked (KF96+surgical mask over it).  Pray hard friends.  We really don't want COVID. 

Yikes! 

HCWs have been using a variety of masks for two+ years now, and aside from the initial wave/PPE shortage/high risk procedures with rationed testing, most got it through casual non-work contact or being sloppy at work (obviously, not all, but most of my DH's coworkers have gotten it via family, friends, unmasking in public, or unmasking unwisely at work around others when not seeing patients). 

Windows down and masked should be really protective, but I would be nervous too. Praying you all stay well!

[YaelAldrich]

I hope so y'all. 

The thing is my oldest went to his college last weekend and hung out with Bonus Son Saturday until Sunday morning. Sunday is Bonus Son started to feel off....

This is the son who seems to be impervious to COVID though. He lived in the same room as my second son during an active COVID case (BTW that case of COVID was caught from the Bonus Son back in December). He's sadly a conspiracy theorist so he's only got the one vaccine. He also doesn't mask unless we specifically ask him to. He might have gotten COVID after he left home last year but he doesn't know for sure.

So far he's feeling fine.  Prayers for him too.

Edited May 13, 2022 by YaelAldrich

[mommyoffive]

Hoping Covid stays away Yael.   I hope the bonus kid feels better soon.  Poor kiddo.

[mlktwins]

I haven't been on here much as I used to be, but things have calmed down and now I can think :-).

I'm so sorry for those who are getting sick or are worried because you've been exposed 😔.

I asked a little bit ago (up thread) about the 2nd booster.  I wasn't sure I wanted to get it because it doesn't seem to last very long.  I am going to talk to my GP next week when I go for my pre-op physical.  I may get one there.

My new question is about timing of the 2nd booster.  I know things are surging and the summer isn't looking great.  People in my neighborhood (FB friends) are coming down with it for the 1st time.  My boys' in person classes end on Wednesday, but they have been masking anyway.  Our big risk I feel will come with summer swim team.  They are swimmers and are coaching the younger ages.  I am one of the team photographers.  There are 176 kids on the team so a lot of possible exposure, but all outside.  So...I was thinking of getting the booster next week and pray it gets me through July 31st when our banquet is.  

But...the news is talking a lot about the big fall/winter surge.  During next school year, DS1 will have 2 days at an in-person class (one day at CC), and DS2 will have 1.  We mask inside, don't eat in restaurants, I mask when I go to my elderly dad's (he won't mask, but his caregivers mostly do), etc.  My boys swim year round so that is the big risk during the school year.  

I am having cataract surgery on June 15th and another, more delicate eye surgery, sometime in August.  

Thoughts on when is the best time to get the booster given this information?  

I know everyone is at risk.  My boys are pretty healthy.  I am overweight, but no known conditions.  DH is not overweight, but has some heart issues.  DH will get boosted too.  It is just about when.

Sorry I got so wordy...

[mommyoffive]

U.S. COVID-19 Map: Tracking the Trends (mayoclinic.org)

[kbutton]

2 hours ago, mlktwins said:

Thoughts on when is the best time to get the booster given this information?  

I think it's hard to know what will happen with boosters going forward. If you won't be exposed near your surgery times (or you can isolate on purpose), then you're probably fine to wing it and get it when it works for your schedule. I am pretty sure YLE is recommending not trying to time it--to just get it.

We isolate for anything we feel is important and otherwise take precautions (indoor masking, some outdoor masking if close quarters, no eating with people, any sharing of space unmasked is with people who have followed the same rules leading up to our get together). We have one kid that will have to eat lunch at school next year, but so far, this has worked. 

We're not yet eligible for the latest booster, sigh.

[mommyoffive]

FDA sets June meetings on COVID vaccines for youngest kids | WHEC.com

[ktgrok]

What are we hearing on the rapid home test accuracy with current strains? DD12 went to a modified lock in at church Friday from 5-11pm, and Saturday 8am-12pm. All wear masks when indoors, they take them off to eat outside. 

One of the kids tested positive on monday or tuesday, can't remember. 

DD woke up Tusday morning with sore throat, now has sore throat and lots of sinus congestion. Tested her wednesday and thursday with Binax, negative both times. 

(edited to add - she is vaccinated and wears a KF94 mask)

Edited May 13, 2022 by ktgrok

[Pen]

On 5/11/2022 at 2:13 PM, mommyoffive said:

Growing share of COVID-19 deaths are among vaccinated people (wisn.com)

 

 

. Even allowing for stat issues if stats are based on total population for the link in quote above  (?) it does not look like “vax” is 95% effective (as was claimed) in way I normally understand 95% effectiveness for medical decision making. I do realize  that 95% was not the absolute effective rate (that was only around 2% or less  iirc) only the “relative” effective rate,  so could be technically accurate while still giving wrong impression to many.  

. In regards deaths I found Pfizer own statistics which showed higher all cause mortality  in vaxxed than in unvaccinated to be very important *For Myself* and my understandings. Not for any of you.   I have accepted  that WTM is a pro vax platform, but one that still seems to recognize personal decision making and perhaps even the “Great Conversation” idea.  The Great Conversation IMO only deeply matters when the subject is of substantial importance .  
 

I think the below link  is showing positivity by vax status rather than by total population which may be helpful, though not specifically about deaths as the quoted  link is. 

 

http://wp.cov19longhaulfoundation.org/index.php/vaccine-news/new-data-from-walgreens-reveals-unvaccinated-have-the-lowest-positivity-rate-for-covid-triple-and-double-vaxxed-groups-have-the-worst-rate/

Not so very long ago a warning that one shot or two shot series likely wasn’t going to be as effective as people hoped and that redosing / boosters would probably be expected was dismissed by people I know as an utterly absurd “conspiracy theory” and with what seemed like a “shoot the messenger “ type attitude toward people trying to bring such warning. Yet, here we are, some people having gotten or considering getting their third, and some already having gotten or considering getting their fourth shots.  And some I know even talking about possibly getting  5th shots for the fall. 
 

I think adults can and should decide for ourselves.  
 

But are young children going to be put on a waning immunity treadmill like the Walgreen chart seems to show?  That still seems so very wrong to me. 

[whitestavern]

Well, against my better judgement I ate indoors with my mom for Mothers Day. Tested positive 3 days later. She has dementia or Alzheimer’s and our relationship has been very rocky for a few years. She has refused to see me for a year and a half though she is vaxxed and boosted and was seeing me outside prior to vaccine availability. Anyway I made reservations on a heated terrace and when I arrived at the restaurant she said she thought it would be too cold to eat outside. I argued for about 10 min and finally agreed as I did not want to ruin the day. I’m really angry with myself though. Thankfully I had only a fever and body aches for about 2 1/2 days. Feel better and hopefully that will be the end of it. Dh and ds have been testing negative and feel fine - not sure how they escaped it. 

[Catwoman]

19 hours ago, YaelAldrich said:

My bonus son (my oldest DS' best friend who lives by us a bunch when he's not in college) came down with COVID (he got COVID the first time Dec 2020) two days before college finished for the year.  Thank goodness he finished his exams already.  But we were to pick him up today and take him to his dad's place.  He called us yesterday afternoon sounding horrible and told us he got COVID.  We called the university hoping they would be able to put him in quarantine housing and we could pick him and his stuff next week.  But quarantine housing ended today at 10am.  And he was to leave the dorms by 10 am this morning as well.  We tried to find him a place to crash in his area but everything was filled because of commencement. We had no choice; we took two cars to pick him and his stuff up.  We took our youngest because he just got boosted three weeks ago.

Our youngest and I took his stuff to his dad's house and my husband followed a while later windows open the entire 120 mile ride home.  I hope they don't get COVID from him; two elderly and one cancer survivor in the Dad's house.  Our Bonus Son looked like hell; diarrhea and throwing up in addition to breathing issues.  We all double masked (KF96+surgical mask over it).  Pray hard friends.  We really don't want COVID. 

Praying for your whole family, Yael!

The worst part about this waiting period is that if you get even the slightest sniffle, you’ll worry it might be Covid. 😞 

[Catwoman]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

. Even allowing for stat issues if stats are based on total population for the link in quote above  (?) it does not look like “vax” is 95% effective (as was claimed) in way I normally understand 95% effectiveness for medical decision making. I do realize  that 95% was not the absolute effective rate (that was only around 2% or less  iirc) only the “relative” effective rate,  so could be technically accurate while still giving wrong impression to many.  

. In regards deaths I found Pfizer own statistics which showed higher all cause mortality  in vaxxed than in unvaccinated to be very important *For Myself* and my understandings. Not for any of you.   I have accepted  that WTM is a pro vax platform, but one that still seems to recognize personal decision making and perhaps even the “Great Conversation” idea.  The Great Conversation IMO only deeply matters when the subject is of substantial importance .  
 

I think the below link  is showing positivity by vax status rather than by total population which may be helpful, though not specifically about deaths as the quoted  link is. 

 

http://wp.cov19longhaulfoundation.org/index.php/vaccine-news/new-data-from-walgreens-reveals-unvaccinated-have-the-lowest-positivity-rate-for-covid-triple-and-double-vaxxed-groups-have-the-worst-rate/

Not so very long ago a warning that one shot or two shot series likely wasn’t going to be as effective as people hoped and that redosing / boosters would probably be expected was dismissed by people I know as an utterly absurd “conspiracy theory” and with what seemed like a “shoot the messenger “ type attitude toward people trying to bring such warning. Yet, here we are, some people having gotten or considering getting their third, and some already having gotten or considering getting their fourth shots.  And some I know even talking about possibly getting  5th shots for the fall. 
 

I think adults can and should decide for ourselves.  
 

But are young children going to be put on a waning immunity treadmill like the Walgreen chart seems to show?  That still seems so very wrong to me. 

Welcome back, @Pen! I was just thinking of you the other day and wondering how you and your son are doing.  🙂 

Edited May 13, 2022 by Catwoman
Stupid autocorrect strikes again!

[KSera]

2 hours ago, ktgrok said:

What are we hearing on the rapid home test accuracy with current strains? DD12 went to a modified lock in at church Friday from 5-11pm, and Saturday 8am-12pm. All wear masks when indoors, they take them off to eat outside. 

One of the kids tested positive on monday or tuesday, can't remember. 

DD woke up Tusday morning with sore throat, now has sore throat and lots of sinus congestion. Tested her wednesday and thursday with Binax, negative both times. 

(edited to add - she is vaccinated and wears a KF94 mask)

They are not doing well at picking it up early right now. It’s often taking people several days. I’ve seen some people take as long as five days to turn positive on the home test. 
 

 

1 hour ago, Pen said:

I have accepted  that WTM is a pro vax platform,

That’s not just because “WTM is a pro vax platform” it’s because the vaccines have saved hundreds of thousands of lives in the US alone, and people vaccine scare mongering like the above are responsible for those hundreds of thousands of extra people who died who would still be alive had they not been scared of the vaccine. That’s a thing that makes me very angry. People responsible for that don’t seem to care. 

[I talk to the trees]

9 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

U.S. COVID-19 Map: Tracking the Trends (mayoclinic.org)

(This post contains no actual data. Just my own sad musings. If you’re looking for actual data, scroll on!)

Ok, so someone correct me if my math is wrong here, but it has been projected that there will be 100 million cases in the coming year. If the charts in the link above are accurate wrt case fatality rate (1.2%), that works out to another 1.2 million deaths. Spread over a year, that works out to an average of over 3000 deaths per day. And yet, people are behaving as if nothing is out of the ordinary about that. I feel like people who are higher risk and still being cautious are being told to stop being such wimps about it. After all, the vulnerable are expendable, right? It just doesn’t sit right with me at all. It’s like being willing to get sick and/or risk getting others sick is some sort of psycho badge of honor. 

 

 

[Elona]

5 hours ago, ktgrok said:

DD woke up Tusday morning with sore throat, now has sore throat and lots of sinus congestion. Tested her wednesday and thursday with Binax, negative both times. 

I can tell you what happened in my family over the last 2 weeks: husband came down with what seemed to him like a head cold - lots of sneezing, congestion, etc. He tested two days in and 5 days in, negative both times. He was vaxed and boosted, so thought it was nothing and was not careful. Daughter caught it 2 days later with a horrible sore throat, congestion, etc. She tested positive. (She's vaxed but no booster.) I got it 2 days after her quite badly and also tested positive. I managed to get Paxlovid, which helped, but I still have very little energy 7 days in. I am vaxed, but not boosted due to a negative reaction I had to my second shot.

Moral of the story? Assume its Covid. Seriously. I wish my husband would have been more careful around us. I am very worried that I will be battling this for a month or more. I suspect that his booster caused viral load to be lower/less detectable on the test.

[ktgrok]

4 hours ago, KSera said:

They are not doing well at picking it up early right now. It’s often taking people several days. I’ve seen some people take as long as five days to turn positive on the home test. 
 

5 days from exposure or 5 days after symptoms?

[KSera]

7 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

5 days from exposure or 5 days after symptoms?

Of symptoms! More typically it seems to be 2-3. Can you get a PCR where you are?

[bookbard]

4 minutes ago, KSera said:

Of symptoms! More typically it seems to be 2-3. Can you get a PCR where you are?

I am noticing this too. One sister was negative on two PCRs, with symptoms, before testing positive at home. My other sister is still negative, has symptoms, is a household contact. It seems very weird to me. 

[Corraleno]

4 hours ago, I talk to the trees said:

Ok, so someone correct me if my math is wrong here, but it has been projected that there will be 100 million cases in the coming year. If the charts in the link above are accurate wrt case fatality rate (1.2%), that works out to another 1.2 million deaths. Spread over a year, that works out to an average of over 3000 deaths per day.

Keep in mind that CFR and IFR are not the same thing — the number of people who are infected  is much larger than the number who actually test positive, so the actual infection fatality rate is lower than the case fatality rate. I don't know where they got the 1.2% CFR in that "chart" — I assume that is a cumulative CFR that includes all deaths in the last 2+ years, which is why it doesn't move much from week to week. So that would include the early days before vaccines and effective treatments, when the CFR was quite high, and is probably not accurate for omicron in a heavily vaxxed or previously infected population. Or maybe only the sickest people are bothering to get PCR tested right now, so the CFR is way inflated. I think I read that in Hong Kong the CFR for omicron was around 0.6%, and the true IFR would be lower than that.

When they estimate there will be 100 million "cases" in the next year, I assume they are talking about infections, not positive PCR tests — because 100 million positive tests would imply something like 300 million infections, and I don't think that's what they mean. So if the actual IFR in a population where pretty much everyone has been either vaxed or previously infected is more like 0.3-0.5%, and 100 million people are infected, we'd be looking at another 300-500K deaths. Which is certainly depressing, but not as bad as another 1.2 million deaths. And we may have better vaccines and better treatments by fall as well.

 

4 hours ago, I talk to the trees said:

And yet, people are behaving as if nothing is out of the ordinary about that. I feel like people who are higher risk and still being cautious are being told to stop being such wimps about it. After all, the vulnerable are expendable, right? It just doesn’t sit right with me at all. It’s like being willing to get sick and/or risk getting others sick is some sort of psycho badge of honor. 

It's incredible to me how many people would literally rather die, or watch their loved ones die, than admit they were wrong. 

Edited May 14, 2022 by Corraleno

[importswim]

18 hours ago, ktgrok said:

What are we hearing on the rapid home test accuracy with current strains? DD12 went to a modified lock in at church Friday from 5-11pm, and Saturday 8am-12pm. All wear masks when indoors, they take them off to eat outside. 

One of the kids tested positive on monday or tuesday, can't remember. 

DD woke up Tusday morning with sore throat, now has sore throat and lots of sinus congestion. Tested her wednesday and thursday with Binax, negative both times. 

(edited to add - she is vaccinated and wears a KF94 mask)

In February I started to get those symptoms and tested every day and the positive didn't show up until day 3 of testing. I was starting to think that testing was silly because I do have a number of environmental allergies but continued to test. I'm glad I did!

[KSera]

On the usefulness of home tests to tell when you can come out of isolation (because the 5 day rule clearly doesn’t cut it): this lab showed that the antigen test being positive correlated  with whether there was live virus still present. This is what they’ve been saying, but good to see it verified. 

 

[Mom_to3]

When people say that we may have better vaccines and treatments come this fall, it is just as likely that we will have *no* vaccines and *no* treatments for the vast majority of Americans come this fall. The government is already preparing for severe rationing of vaccines if there is no new funding (while oddly recommending that left-over funding from last year's package be spent on police...).

And it is outrageous that a university is not extending housing to their covid positive students and send them out to travel across the US, after having encouraged mask infection of students over the last weeks of the quarter.

[Arcadia]

@KSera a friend who is very health conscious and runs marathons very often tested strong positive for 10 days. His 11th day test had a faint positive. 

[mommyoffive]

Has anyone bought these masks? 

Amazon.com: Funight KN95 Face Masks 25 Pack 5-Ply Breathable Filter Disposable Face Masks Black : Patio, Lawn & Garden

 code HGUIA8IT

[Not_a_Number]

On 5/7/2022 at 8:38 PM, mommyoffive said:

I am so happy you are back!

Yeah I had a bad reaction to the booster plus a flu shot so I am really feeling wimpy about getting another booster.  I had a headache for a week.

Exactly. I had a headache for 2 weeks and possibly more. Ugh ugh ugh. 

In other news, my 20-year-old sister seems to have gotten COVID, so I'll let you know how she does with it. She was feeling cruddy last I checked. She's away on a study abroad semester, so we can't really help 😞  .