Boardies with Covid experience of vaccinated

[Drama Llama]

Just now, ktgrok said:

True, I should have said planes/airports. 

 

How long was his trip? My best guess would be that he caught it at MCO, on the way up, and not up there, unless he was gone more than 10 days.  

It's also possible that he caught it at work the day before he left, and that rather than his trip being the cause of his illness, it will be the thing that keeps the rest of you safe since he was gone until the symptoms were at the point where he tested pretty quickly without infecting anyone and you leapt into action. 

[SKL]

6 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

The travel correlation is interesting - DS22 was also traveling. I'm wondering if it is planes in particular that are a problem, or if it is maybe the stress of travel that is lowering immune system? I mean, heck, DS22 has been here in Florida, which is now at critical levels, and not caught it but went to upstate New York with positivity under 2% and caught it. Crazy!

I always get sick when I travel, so likely the stress of travel isn't helping.

I also suspect it isn't just Covid that's happening, but Covid plus other bugs that conspire to make the Covid symptoms show.  And when we travel, we're exposed to bugs that local folks are used to, but that are strange enough to us to make us ill.

[ktgrok]

19 minutes ago, BaseballandHockey said:

How long was his trip? My best guess would be that he caught it at MCO, on the way up, and not up there, unless he was gone more than 10 days.  

It's also possible that he caught it at work the day before he left, and that rather than his trip being the cause of his illness, it will be the thing that keeps the rest of you safe since he was gone until the symptoms were at the point where he tested pretty quickly without infecting anyone and you leapt into action. 

His plane left at 5am on a Wednesday. He got back Tuesday morning at 10:30am after spending the night on the floor of the airport, and went to his room, napped for 2 hours, and went to work. He came home from work at 5:30, had picked up food on the way so just went to his room and ate in there and went to bed. Next morning, so Wednesday morning, 8 days after leaving, he tested positive. 

I think average for incubation with delta is 4 days, so 8 seems long, but possible. Also, everyone he was with on the trip - sleeping in the same room, eating together in the air B&B, etc has tested negative. They will need to retest, but it seems if he'd caught it before going, he'd have perhaps infected at least one of them and had them test positive. So who knows? Definitely could have been at an airport either way, since he would have taken off his mask to eat or drink I'd guess. He masks at work - they require them of all staff and clients. But it's usually a surgical mask. I did send KF95's with him to wear on the plane, and I know he did because he commented on how it wasn't even bad to sleep in, lol. 

[Drama Llama]

Just now, ktgrok said:

His plane left at 5am on a Wednesday. He got back Tuesday morning at 10:30am after spending the night on the floor of the airport, and went to his room, napped for 2 hours, and went to work. He came home from work at 5:30, had picked up food on the way so just went to his room and ate in there and went to bed. Next morning, so Wednesday morning, 8 days after leaving, he tested positive. 

I think average for incubation with delta is 4 days, so 8 seems long, but possible. Also, everyone he was with on the trip - sleeping in the same room, eating together in the air B&B, etc has tested negative. They will need to retest, but it seems if he'd caught it before going, he'd have perhaps infected at least one of them and had them test positive. So who knows? Definitely could have been at an airport either way, since he would have taken off his mask to eat or drink I'd guess. He masks at work - they require them of all staff and clients. But it's usually a surgical mask. I did send KF95's with him to wear on the plane, and I know he did because he commented on how it wasn't even bad to sleep in, lol. 

I keep hearing that Delta has much more variation in incubation period, so it can be a couple days or up to 18.  I am so sorry you're in this situation since it sounds like he's doing a great job of trying to protect his little siblings, and you are too. 

[ktgrok]

1 minute ago, BaseballandHockey said:

I keep hearing that Delta has much more variation in incubation period, so it can be a couple days or up to 18.  I am so sorry you're in this situation since it sounds like he's doing a great job of trying to protect his little siblings, and you are too. 

Yeah, we likely will never know. He saw my parents the day before he left on his trip, spent the day with them, and they have both tested negative now, with no symptoms,so that is good news. They are quarantining for the full 10 days plus negative test thing. 

[Drama Llama]

Just now, ktgrok said:

Yeah, we likely will never know. He saw my parents the day before he left on his trip, spent the day with them, and they have both tested negative now, with no symptoms,so that is good news. They are quarantining for the full 10 days plus negative test thing. 

I am very hopeful that the timing, plus your quick thinking on testing right away, will turn out to be what keeps you all from getting it.  If he'd been playing with his siblings, or visiting grandma, instead of traveling, the day before the positive test, I'd be much more worried about you.  So, while I am sure he's worried about the fact that he brought it home, he shouldn't feel bad about having traveled.  That's all I meant to say.  

Still praying for you guys!

[ktgrok]

1 minute ago, BaseballandHockey said:

I am very hopeful that the timing, plus your quick thinking on testing right away, will turn out to be what keeps you all from getting it.  If he'd been playing with his siblings, or visiting grandma, instead of traveling, the day before the positive test, I'd be much more worried about you.  So, while I am sure he's worried about the fact that he brought it home, he shouldn't feel bad about having traveled.  That's all I meant to say.  

Still praying for you guys!

Yeah, it was very lucky! And it was him who asked for a test - he woke up and couldn't smell anything (I'm thinking when he was brushing his teth he noticed) and texted me from his bedroom saying he needed to test. He stayed in their after that, other than one quick bathroom trip while masked, while DH built his containment zone. Poor kid, we were so busy building it no one realized he hadn't had anything to eat all day! And he felt bad about all the trouble, so didn't mention it. 

I will say, we had originally planned to go see my parents on Wednesday, and Tuesday night  said we should just stay home and get stuff done, I'd visit next week. SO glad we didn't go! 

[Lisa R.]

I have another thread describing my son's Covid pneumonia experience. He is now recovering well after fourteen days of symptoms. 

He was not vaccinated and became very sick. I was fully vaccinated in March with Pfeizer. I was around him briefly a few days before he developed Covid symptoms. In the middle of his sickness, I had mild Covid symptoms. On my second day of symptoms, I had a rapid and PCR test, taken at separate locations, that were both negative. I needed another test before returning for work. Ten days after my symptoms, I took a PCR test and it was positive. This has caused me to lose confidence in negative Covid tests.

While I had body aches, congestion, and low grade fever for 3 days, it was nothing compared to his symptoms. I am grateful I had the vaccine and cannot imagine Covid without it.  

(I specifically asked people not to comment on vaccines in my other thread, so I chose not to mention my Covid/vaccine experience, either.)

[alisoncooks]

15 minutes ago, Lisa R. said:

Ten days after my symptoms, I took a PCR test and it was positive. This has caused me to lose confidence in negative Covid tests.

Yikes! That is concerning. 

Even on this board, there have been several recent mentions of being symptomatic yet testing negative, and therefore assuming they've got some bug, not COVID. 

(I've recently been told by health officials that if you've been vaccinated and test negative after an exposure, then no quarantine is necessary.  Just imagine how many --not you-- are taking that at face value and going on about their lives, actually COVID-positive.)

Edited July 31, 2021 by alisoncooks

[Lisa R.]

4 minutes ago, alisoncooks said:

 

(I've recently been told by health officials that if you've been vaccinated and test negative after an exposure, then no quarantine is necessary.  Just imagine how many --not you-- are taking that at face value and going on about their lives, actually COVID-positive.)

Exactly.

I believe that being vaccinated is no guarantee that you will not catch Covid. I believe you will have milder symptoms, so I still stand behind vaccines.

However, if you have Covid symptoms, even mild ones, and test negative, you should not assume you do not have Covid. If you've been exposed to Covid and test negative, you should not assume you are negative, with or without a vaccine. I was careful after I tested had my symptoms and tested negative, and I'm grateful. 

[catz]

41 minutes ago, Lisa R. said:

I have another thread describing my son's Covid pneumonia experience. He is now recovering well after fourteen days of symptoms. 

So glad to hear he is on the mend!  Thank you for sharing your story!  ❤️

[Terabith]

1 hour ago, alisoncooks said:

Yikes! That is concerning. 

Even on this board, there have been several recent mentions of being symptomatic yet testing negative, and therefore assuming they've got some bug, not COVID. 

(I've recently been told by health officials that if you've been vaccinated and test negative after an exposure, then no quarantine is necessary.  Just imagine how many --not you-- are taking that at face value and going on about their lives, actually COVID-positive.)

But what is the alternative?  I mean, obviously I don't want anyone going around covid positive, but if someone has mild symptoms and takes two tests a few days apart and both are negative, it seems reasonable to assume you're negative and resume normal life after symptoms have resolved and not quarantine family members for 2 weeks following your last symptom?  Unless everyone is testing every day, which would be really good but really expensive, I don't know how to avoid it practically speaking?  

What should the protocol be?  

[Lady Florida.]

2 hours ago, ktgrok said:

The travel correlation is interesting - DS22 was also traveling. I'm wondering if it is planes in particular that are a problem, or if it is maybe the stress of travel that is lowering immune system? I mean, heck, DS22 has been here in Florida, which is now at critical levels, and not caught it but went to upstate New York with positivity under 2% and caught it. Crazy!

One of them went to the Keys and the other to the mountains in North Georgia. Both drove but stopped along the way for gas, something to eat, etc. The one who went to the Keys was obviously around more strangers but she felt safe. Like your son, they'll probably never know where they got it. 

[kristin0713]

My mom is positive.  Uuuuuuuugh.  She's been fully vaccinated since February with Moderna. She's 67.

I guess we'll see how the rest of us hold up sharing a house.  I'm the one that got the crappy J&J in March so this will definitely be a test. 

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

1 hour ago, Terabith said:

But what is the alternative?  I mean, obviously I don't want anyone going around covid positive, but if someone has mild symptoms and takes two tests a few days apart and both are negative, it seems reasonable to assume you're negative and resume normal life after symptoms have resolved and not quarantine family members for 2 weeks following your last symptom?  Unless everyone is testing every day, which would be really good but really expensive, I don't know how to avoid it practically speaking?  

What should the protocol be?  

I don’t know—if I had two negative tests and mild cold symptoms, I couldn’t stay home from work until all my cold/allergy symptoms are gone.  Our current guidance is if you’re fully vaccinated and had an exposure you no longer have to quarantine, but I expect that to change.

I don’t have answers at this point. I can’t quarantine every time my allergies kick up.

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, kristin0713 said:

My mom is positive.  Uuuuuuuugh.  She's been fully vaccinated since February with Moderna. She's 67.

I guess we'll see how the rest of us hold up sharing a house.  I'm the one that got the crappy J&J in March so this will definitely be a test. 

Ugh. Is everyone in the house vaccinated?

Can you create a negative pressure area in her room at least? Crack a window and blow a fan out of it?

[kristin0713]

6 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Ugh. Is everyone in the house vaccinated?

Can you create a negative pressure area in her room at least? Crack a window and blow a fan out of it?

Yes, we all are. My dad was vaccinated with her back in February. DH got Pfizer in April/May and the kids had theirs in June.

She’s been quarantining in her room.  Even if we do get sick, I’m sure we’ll be fine. It’s just annoying and frustrating and discouraging all around. 

[Syllieann]

4 hours ago, kristin0713 said:

My mom is positive.  Uuuuuuuugh.  She's been fully vaccinated since February with Moderna. She's 67.

I guess we'll see how the rest of us hold up sharing a house.  I'm the one that got the crappy J&J in March so this will definitely be a test. 

I am sorry for you and also disheartened for my own family.  My parents are 66, vaccinated with Moderna in February/March, and both developed symptoms early this morning.  They can't get in for testing until tomorrow 😞 I'll update when we find out.

[desertflower]

On 7/28/2021 at 10:22 AM, TexasProud said:

I know we had a thread like this earlier, but I would like to start a thread for those or close relatives who got Covid, but were vaccinated.  How long and how severe. (You may have to come back to update that.)

Please add what vaccine they had and when they got it as well. 

Don't know if this will help.  But my husband's 1st day in the office was officially last monday.  He wore a mask.  Most of his co-workers didn't wear a mask.  We are vaccinated.  He didn't go in the rest of the week.  And on Friday was notified that someone in the office on monday was positive.  This person was vaccinated and exhibiting symptoms. 

We don't know any other details.  But my husband got tested because of this, and he was negative. 

[desertflower]

59 minutes ago, Syllieann said:

I am sorry for you and also disheartened for my own family.  My parents are 66, vaccinated with Moderna in February/March, and both developed symptoms early this morning.  They can't get in for testing until tomorrow 😞 I'll update when we find out.

Sending hugs and prayers your way. 

[desertflower]

5 hours ago, kristin0713 said:

My mom is positive.  Uuuuuuuugh.  She's been fully vaccinated since February with Moderna. She's 67.

I guess we'll see how the rest of us hold up sharing a house.  I'm the one that got the crappy J&J in March so this will definitely be a test. 

Sending hugs and prayers your way. 

[Melissa in Australia]

18 hours ago, Pen said:

 I personally know more people who have had severe vaccine reactions than who have had severe Covid. 

sadly same 

 I personally don't know a single person who has had covid 

but I know a person who has died from the vaccine ( in Canada) 

 my brother has a probable blood clot  from the vaccine and needed hospitalization. my friend was extremely ill for over a week so was my neighbour, and  I don't know many people who are vaccined  as the roll out is fairly recent here 

 I am not anti vax at all  but very very glad that I live in Australia

Edited August 1, 2021 by Melissa in Australia

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

sadly same 

 I personally don't know a single person who has had covid 

but I know a person who has died from the vaccine ( in Canada) 

 my brother has a probable blood clot  from the vaccine and needed hospitalization. my friend was extremely ill for over a week so was my neighbour, and  I don't know many people who are vaccined  as the roll out is fairly recent here 

 I am not anti vax at all  but very very glad that I live in Australia

I hope your brother is doing ok now. Did they treat him with anticoagulants? I’m surprised they didn’t scan him to check for sure.

[Syllieann]

10 hours ago, Syllieann said:

I am sorry for you and also disheartened for my own family.  My parents are 66, vaccinated with Moderna in February/March, and both developed symptoms early this morning.  They can't get in for testing until tomorrow 😞 I'll update when we find out.

They are both much better this morning; only headaches remain.  They decided to just stay home another day or two and skip the drama of testing, which they feel wouldn't be terribly reliable anyway.  I guess we'll never know, but I have a feeling this sort of thing is happening a lot with vaccinated people.  I think our breakthrough numbers are much higher than the CDC is acknowledging. 

DH's co-worker has symptomatic covid (positive test Monday night after being at work all day without a mask).  He had J&J in January and is in his 50s.

[ktgrok]

4 minutes ago, Syllieann said:

They are both much better this morning; only headaches remain.  They decided to just stay home another day or two and skip the drama of testing, which they feel wouldn't be terribly reliable anyway.  I guess we'll never know, but I have a feeling this sort of thing is happening a lot with vaccinated people.  I think our breakthrough numbers are much higher than the CDC is acknowledging. 

DH's co-worker has symptomatic covid (positive test Monday night after being at work all day without a mask).  He had J&J in January and is in his 50s.

If they are positive, staying home a day or two isn't really enough to prevent spreading it to others.

[Syllieann]

10 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

If they are positive, staying home a day or two isn't really enough to prevent spreading it to others.

None of us expect that they would still test positive after symptoms resolved, but I guess they are just going to have one of them get tested and assume it is the same for both.

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, Syllieann said:

None of us expect that they would still test positive after symptoms resolved, but I guess they are just going to have one of them get tested and assume it is the same for both.

That seems reasonable. 

[melmichigan]

This is part of the problem, people not wanting to deal with the “drama” of testing.  Symptoms in those who have vaccinated are known to be different, and now we know they are just as likely to spread it as the unvaccinated. Those who test positive, regardless of vaccine, are still advised to isolate for the 10 days.

[Cecropia]

On 7/30/2021 at 3:42 PM, Pam in CT said:

Breakthrough cases are alarming, as is the surge in cases more broadly; and I'm getting grumpy that what looked in April like light at the end in the tunnel is more likely only a temporary reprieve. Hospitalizations in four states are back to Jan-Feb levels. But I'm trying to steady myself by repeating like a mantra, what 93% efficacy means, is that out of 100 million fully vaccinated people there will be 7 million breakthrough cases.  It's simultaneously alarming and exactly what math says is going to happen.

Israel's Health Ministry recently reported that Pfizer, in particular, is only 39% effective against delta (in preventing breakthrough cases, I assume), 88% against hospitalization and 91% against "severe illness".  I have also read that the widely published effectiveness statistics are of relative risk reduction, which are not dealing with a vaccinated population alone, but comparing a vaccinated population to a control group.  If of a 100 million unvaccinated (control) population, 10 million or 10% contract covid, then at a 93% RRR the accompanying 100 million vaccinated population would expect 700,000 breakthrough cases.  This sounds a lot better than 7 million out of 100 million!  But when the numbers change to 39% effectiveness, you could expect 6,100,000 breakthrough cases in the vaccinated population.  Keep in mind that both predictions are at a fairly low attack/exposure rate (not as low as 10% exactly due to previous immunity/luck/etc. - but given the high virulence of the delta variant, that's probably conservative).  I'm no statistician, so someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

10,000,000-700,000=9,300,000   9,300,000/10,000,000=93% RRR

10,000,000-6,100,000=3,900,000  3,900,000/10,000,000=39% RRR

Anecdotally, I haven't heard of anyone local who has recently tested positive for covid, vaccinated or not.  However, I know of several people who have been suffering from "summer colds" in the past 3-4 weeks, and as far as I know, there is little/no concern that it could be covid and no testing being sought.

[desertflower]

3 hours ago, Syllieann said:

None of us expect that they would still test positive after symptoms resolved, but I guess they are just going to have one of them get tested and assume it is the same for both.

Oh so, if my husband was exposed to someone positive and exhibited symptoms.  Then got tested 5 days after symptoms are resolved, he will test negative?

[Syllieann]

15 minutes ago, desertflower said:

Oh so, if my husband was exposed to someone positive and exhibited symptoms.  Then got tested 5 days after symptoms are resolved, he will test negative?

I don't really know.  It probably depends on how sensitive the test is and on the individual person.  In general, you would expect viral loads to be highest right before symptoms and in the early days of symptoms.  I don't know that we have any data on how that works out in vaccinated people, so we are kind of generalizing.

[KSera]

36 minutes ago, Syllieann said:

I don't really know.  It probably depends on how sensitive the test is and on the individual person.  In general, you would expect viral loads to be highest right before symptoms and in the early days of symptoms.  I don't know that we have any data on how that works out in vaccinated people, so we are kind of generalizing.

There is some data showing viral loads dropping off more quickly in vaccinated people who become infected. They test negative more quickly than unvaccinated.

[kristin0713]

29 minutes ago, KSera said:

There is some data showing viral loads dropping off more quickly in vaccinated people who become infected. They test negative more quickly than unvaccinated.

Does this mean that they are no longer contagious with a negative test? And I don't mean an at-home rapid test, but a test sent out to a lab. 

[desertflower]

46 minutes ago, KSera said:

There is some data showing viral loads dropping off more quickly in vaccinated people who become infected. They test negative more quickly than unvaccinated.

This is what I thought. Thanks.

[desertflower]

16 minutes ago, kristin0713 said:

Does this mean that they are no longer contagious with a negative test? And I don't mean an at-home rapid test, but a test sent out to a lab. 

I assume so. With a negative test from an official testing site and no more symptoms, we are assuming we can go out. However, we still wear a masks. 

[ScoutTN]

9 hours ago, ktgrok said:

If they are positive, staying home a day or two isn't really enough to prevent spreading it to others.

Why is testing drama? Is it difficult in your area? Here, 5 minutes online to make an appt at CVS. Drive through testing takes about 5 mins and the lines are not any longer than for Rx pickup. They notify by text and email. Cost is zero. Really, nbd. 
 

Eta: for PCR tests. Rapid tests are not free bc their unreliability means our state and many ins companies won’t pay for them. OTC tests are about $20, but I don’t know anything about their accuracy.

Edited August 2, 2021 by ScoutTN

[prairiewindmomma]

9 minutes ago, ScoutTN said:

Why is testing drama? Is it difficult in your area? Here, 5 minutes online to make an appt at CVS. Drive through testing takes about 5 mins and the lines are not any longer than for Rx pickup. They notify by text and email. Cost is zero. Really, nbd. 

In my county, there are few options for truly free testing. There is one if you are uninsured and not a migrant worker. Most systems require you to be a patient in their care. For whatever reason, our county health department is not offering free testing directly.

ETA: everybody but Walgreens is charging appointment fees, tied to testing.

Edited August 1, 2021 by prairiewindmomma

[kokotg]

2 hours ago, Cecropia said:

Israel's Health Ministry recently reported that Pfizer, in particular, is only 39% effective against delta (in preventing breakthrough cases, I assume), 88% against hospitalization and 91% against "severe illness". 

According to this guy, the 39% figure from Israel is "mostly because we got the denominator wrong." My brain is too tired to fully follow what he's saying, but thread is here: 

 

[AmandaVT]

22 hours ago, Terabith said:

But what is the alternative?  I mean, obviously I don't want anyone going around covid positive, but if someone has mild symptoms and takes two tests a few days apart and both are negative, it seems reasonable to assume you're negative and resume normal life after symptoms have resolved and not quarantine family members for 2 weeks following your last symptom?  Unless everyone is testing every day, which would be really good but really expensive, I don't know how to avoid it practically speaking?  

What should the protocol be?  

I think VT is still only recommending PCR tests, probably at least partially because we had a big cluster of false positives from the rapid tests early on. So, I think for me, if I was worried or exposed, I'd take a PCR test and wait a day for the results rather than worry about an incorrect result on a rapit test.

 

 

Article about the "positive" cluster

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/07/22/nation/tale-two-tests-vermont-city-left-puzzled-by-positive-then-negative-covid-19-results/

[ktgrok]

https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2021/07/are-things-different-delta

[Melissa in Australia]

9 hours ago, TCB said:

I hope your brother is doing ok now. Did they treat him with anticoagulants? I’m surprised they didn’t scan him to check for sure.

They treated him with anticoagulants through IV. 

He still has a headache, though now within the range if normal, and feels completely exhausted. Cognativly he feels way better

 They did blood tests but no scans. Even though he requested scans and has private insurance. 

[lulalu]

Extended family (great aunt) who 82 fully vaccinated was hospitalized for 10 days needing oxygen. 

Earlier in March or was it April family member not vaccinated was hospitalized for 4 days needing oxygen. 

[Syllieann]

To update on my parents: mom took a rapid test (lumira) today that was negative.  Sample was taken about 48 hours after symptoms, so idk how reliable that is.  There were no rapid test available near them on the weekend or she would have done it sooner.

Edited August 2, 2021 by Syllieann

[KSera]

22 hours ago, kristin0713 said:

Does this mean that they are no longer contagious with a negative test? And I don't mean an at-home rapid test, but a test sent out to a lab. 

If they are no longer shedding enough virus to show up on a PCR test, I think it's thought that then they wouldn't be shedding virus to make anyone sick either. There are occasionally those cases where someone tests negative and then turns positive again though, so I don't know if that means people still need to wait the full time, even with a negative test.

21 hours ago, kokotg said:

According to this guy, the 39% figure from Israel is "mostly because we got the denominator wrong." My brain is too tired to fully follow what he's saying, but thread is here: 

 

This is really important, if true. That 39% number got so much press, and was definitely disappointing. I'm going to be looking for more info. I see what he's saying in his thread about them having used the wrong denominator due to the area they were focused on. Would be really encouraging to find out the numbers haven't dropped that much. On a similar note, I want to look more at the CDC numbers on transmission and how much of that came solely from the P-town outbreak. Because that was not a situation that extrapolates to all other situations.

[kokotg]

4 minutes ago, KSera said:

 

This is really important, if true. That 39% number got so much press, and was definitely disappointing. I'm going to be looking for more info. I see what he's saying in his thread about them having used the wrong denominator due to the area they were focused on. Would be really encouraging to find out the numbers haven't dropped that much. On a similar note, I want to look more at the CDC numbers on transmission and how much of that came solely from the P-town outbreak. Because that was not a situation that extrapolates to all other situations.

yeah--I first saw it because Nate Silver linked to it, but I don't consider him a trustworthy source on covid stuff. And I haven't been able to find the same argument elsewhere, just people taking the 39% and running with it. So I don't know. But I definitely would need to see other analyses supporting that 39% figure before I take it as gospel. 

[KSera]

3 minutes ago, kokotg said:

yeah--I first saw it because Nate Silver linked to it, but I don't consider him a trustworthy source on covid stuff. And I haven't been able to find the same argument elsewhere, just people taking the 39% and running with it. So I don't know. But I definitely would need to see other analyses supporting that 39% figure before I take it as gospel. 

Totally agree, especially now that you've given the Nate Silver context 😉.

[Syllieann]

40 minutes ago, kokotg said:

yeah--I first saw it because Nate Silver linked to it, but I don't consider him a trustworthy source on covid stuff. And I haven't been able to find the same argument elsewhere, just people taking the 39% and running with it. So I don't know. But I definitely would need to see other analyses supporting that 39% figure before I take it as gospel. 

The video linked upthread does a breakdown of breakthrough rate based on when people were vaccinated.  There is a clear relationship that strongly suggests immunity is waning.  There's also the fact that loads of vaccinated people here in the states are ending up with covid.  Prior to delta, that was very rare.  These two pieces of evidence don't jive with using the wrong denominator.  Frankly, I think the public messaging here is purposely misleading us to focus on the GB numbers and our own numbers.  The reality is that we vaccinated at 3 week intervals like Israel, not 12 weeks like GB.  Furthermore, vaccinated folks here are mostly not being tested unless there is overwhelming evidence to suggest it, which leads to an under-reporting of our breakthroughs.  It's hard to sell the vaccine to young people when there is a good chance they'll need time off work to deal with side effects, and they will probably be infected anyway, so I get the motive (but don't agree with it) for the public messaging.  I still think it's best for most of us to be vaccinated, but this is the kind of BS that makes people distrust the government.

Eta:  sorry, the video breakdown is in the vaccine thread.

Edited August 2, 2021 by Syllieann

[Matryoshka]

10 minutes ago, Syllieann said:

The video linked upthread does a breakdown of breakthrough rate based on when people were vaccinated.  There is a clear relationship that strongly suggests immunity is waning.  There's also the fact that loads of vaccinated people here in the states are ending up with covid.  Prior to delta, that was very rare.  These two pieces of evidence don't jive with using the wrong denominator.  Frankly, I think the public messaging here is purposely misleading us to focus on the GB numbers and our own numbers.  The reality is that we vaccinated at 3 week intervals like Israel, not 12 weeks like GB.  Furthermore, vaccinated folks here are mostly not being tested unless there is overwhelming evidence to suggest it, which leads to an under-reporting of our breakthroughs.  It's hard to sell the vaccine to young people when there is a good chance they'll need time off work to deal with side effects, and they will probably be infected anyway, so I get the motive (but don't agree with it) for the public messaging.  I still think it's best for most of us to be vaccinated, but this is the kind of BS that makes people distrust the government.

Eta:  sorry, the video breakdown is in the vaccine thread.

But is that evidence that the vaccine is 'waning' in response to the virus it was made to protect us from, or just evidence that the vaccine is not holding up as well as expected to Delta, which really is almost like a new virus.  It sucks that we've got this new tricksy mutation that's taken over, but it doesn't follow that if it hadn't shown up, that the vaccines wouldn't still be as effective (or only a very tiny bit less) against the virus that they were made to protect against.  We always knew there might be variants that could get around the vaccines.  At least (knock wood) it seems to be holding up in its ability to mostly prevent hospitialziation and death.

[Syllieann]

1 minute ago, Matryoshka said:

But is that evidence that the vaccine is 'waning' in response to the virus it was made to protect us from, or just evidence that the vaccine is not holding up as well as expected to Delta, which really is almost like a new virus.  It sucks that we've got this new tricksy mutation that's taken over, but it doesn't follow that if it hadn't shown up, that the vaccines wouldn't still be as effective (or only a very tiny bit less) against the virus that they were made to protect against.  We always knew there might be variants that could get around the vaccines.  At least (knock wood) it seems to be holding up in its ability to mostly prevent hospitialziation and death.

It's evidence that it's waning.  Most of it is with delta, so they are comparing breakthrough rates for people vaccinated by month.  By this, I mean everyone infected in July, for example, is broken down by when they were vaccinated.  The highest breakthrough rates are for January vaccinated, then decrease as we get more recent.  It's true that the older folks were vaccinated first, so that could confound it a little, but the differences are sharp, and we don't see those differences in hospitalization and death rates.  There does exist plenty of other evidence that delta is more contagious, but that is not what this is concerned with.  It's a double whammy.

[Not_a_Number]

Is there a sense, generally, of how people have caught COVID while vaccinated? (I read the descriptions in people's posts but am wondering if anyone has anything to add.)