Wading through info that conflicts... COVID related..

[Storygirl]

6 minutes ago, alewife said:

Look on twitter.  The actual clip is all over the place.  She said when you clean you don't get rid of it all.  And what remains multiplies.  

I'm not on twitter, and I can't find the clip. But I heard what she said, live, so I don't need to see it again. I think that latching onto an off-hand statement about cleaning is not a reason to disparage her, and I'm sorry to see that that is happening on social media.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Storygirl

[alewife]

1 minute ago, Storygirl said:

I'm not on twitter, and I can't find the clip. But I heard what she said, live, so I don't need to see it again. I think that latching onto an off-hand statement about cleaning is not a reason to disparage her, and I'm sorry to see that that is happening on social media.

I don't think that is an off-hand comment.  This shows to me a fundamental lack of knowledge.  The person guiding public policy should know that a virus cannot multiply on a surface.  

[Storygirl]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

 

Well, it was just posted upthread, and there's really no way to interpret "a few are going to get away, they are going to start to multiply" in a reasonable way. 

Okay, I watched it again. She did say multiply, so that was a mistake.

But I don't think it disqualifies her from being trustworthy as our public health director. She has been on camera for hours and hours and hours over the past couple of months. I'm willing to give her a little grace. She's human.

[Ausmumof3]

6 hours ago, mms said:

A good quarter of our state’s hospitals were in dire financial need before any of this started. Maternity wards had been shut down so locals had to travel, but at least there were somewhat local ERs and other medical services. When the shut down on elective procedures happened several just shut down because they couldn’t keep afloat. Theoretically they might reopen but it is unclear if they will actually be able to do so. After the @Pen mentioned the aid I looked it up and there is aid going to our rural hospitals now and I hope it’s enough, but only time will tell.

I’ve been trying to get my head around how this happens but then I realised that maybe your hospitals are all privately funded?  Here most of the hospitals in rural areas are public.  I don’t think they could afford to run as a commercial entity.  They still do sometimes get closed down but it’s a public health decision as to where the money is best spent.  

[melmichigan]

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200504-coronavirus-what-is-the-best-kind-of-face-mask  Is an article from today’s news that offers an alternative view to the OP, pay attention to the links it uses.  

[katilac]

4 hours ago, SKL said:

I did not say it was a lie.  But stating that our state likely had 100,000 cases (20% of which were expected to be hospitalized) on the day they found the 4th case / 1st non-imported case was irresponsible, then and now.  They used that number to create panic that our healthcare system was going to be totally overwhelmed and people would be dying in alleys and buried in mass graves.  People did panic, and some probably caught the virus at the grocery store that night.  Even if they didn't, it was bad for their health to freak out like that.  People hoarded supplies that should have been left for medical services (not to mention toilet paper!).  People hunkered down and postponed needed health services and hospitals closed.  Two months later, the total cumulative number hospitalized in our state has been less than 4,000.

They were certainly wrong, and I wouldn't argue with irresponsible, either. But how do you think that was used to control people? Quarantines of any kind control your movements, for sure, but why would they specifically want to do that? In other words, conspiracy or just incompetence? I vote incompetence, with some delusions of grandeur thrown in for flavor. 

4 hours ago, mms said:

I said it would definitely hurt tourism but trade with quarantine could continue.

Hawaii is extremely dependent on tourism, though. 

2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Well, it was just posted upthread, and there's really no way to interpret "a few are going to get away, they are going to start to multiply" in a reasonable way. 

"A few are going to get away" has me picturing the virus creeping across the prison yard, with a final mad dash past the guard tower and over the wall . . . 

I would give a regular elected official more leeway with this kind of error, but this is her wheelhouse. Like, you had one job, Dr. Amy! And she repeated it. In the next video, she reverses logarithmic and exponential. And repeats it. I get that people make mistakes and verbal typos, but these are pretty big mistakes that she doesn't seem to catch or correct. 

 

[Guest]

20 hours ago, Danae said:

30 million is about 9% of the US population. During World War Two 11% of the US population served in the military and we found a way to pay them.

The economic impact is going to be devastating. That’s not because of the lockdown, it’s because of the virus. There is no choice we can make that is going to save the economy as we knew it. Lifting restrictions is not going to save small business, it’s not going to save tourist locations, it’s not going to save theaters and sports organizations.  All it’s going to do is make it harder for people who are out of work to receive help and impossible for people losing their businesses to collect insurance. 
 

Oh my goodness. This is so perfectly stated! Requesting permission to quote you if it comes up. 

This is exactly what I have been trying to say but not succeeding. 

[EmseB]

23 minutes ago, Quill said:

Oh my goodness. This is so perfectly stated! Requesting permission to quote you if it comes up. 

This is exactly what I have been trying to say but not succeeding. 

I don't think it's totally accurate, though. Or at least not a complete picture. It is pithy, but not that simple, IMO. Because any governing authority who used that phrase to justify a continued stricter lockdown in a state with low numbers and furloughed health workers would scare me for not understanding the nuance of running some systems and supply chains into the ground.

Sure it's the virus, but we are thinking, reasoning humans who have to make more nuanced decisions than a virus.

[Ausmumof3]

https://apple.news/A3pfvOzeqTTGE_pf47oJLBg
 

I posted this in the giant thread but it’s somewhat relevant here as well.  From ABC (Aus) news

“Australians may remain hesitant to venture out of their homes or gather in large groups even if the nation's various coronavirus restrictions are eased or lifted, a study has found, leading to fresh concerns for key sectors.

Key points:

Less than half of people surveyed would be comfortable going to a bar or restaurant immediately after restrictions are lifted

Bar owners fear the costs of reopening will not be covered unless their venues hit capacity quickly

About 40 per cent of those surveyed believed it would be more than 12 months before things were more or less back to normal

A new survey of 2,225 people by Vox Pop Labs in collaboration with the ABC has found that only about 1 in 8 Australians would attend a large event even if they could, fewer than 1 in 5 would get on a plane, and only 40 per cent would go to a bar or restaurant”

and

“Liam Matthews owns several bars and a music venue in Melbourne. All are closed except one that's doing little more than serving takeaway coffee.

Ramping back up will be expensive, and disastrous if the customers don't come or there's another shutdown.

He say restocking alcohol in the bars alone would cost $100,000 and to recoup that outlay the business would have to be able to operate at full capacity immediately.

"Just jumping in and saying 'OK, next week or in two weeks' time you can open', we would have to get the bars up and running, completely restock them," he says.

The hospitality industry is pushing for venues to be able to reopen with tables 1.5 metres apart and with tracking of patrons, but Mr Matthews is well aware that reopening poses huge risks.

He says if there was a second wave of the virus that shut his business again, it would be for good.

"I think that if we opened up and everything started looking OK but then we were told to shut down again, I think for my actual company that would be when we would look at winding up."

[Ausmumof3]

I think the above info is most strongly relevant to tourism and hospitality sectors. The impact on them is likely to be hardest and most long lasting.  Even just the border closures will make it hard if all other restrictions were lifted and the virus was eradicated from Australia.

[ktgrok]

4 hours ago, alewife said:

It came from the same individual who thinks a virus can multiply on a countertop - Ohio.

ok, my google skills are failing me, I can't find anything about her saying it can multiply on a countertop. Link?

[Pen]

3 hours ago, Storygirl said:

Okay, I watched it again. She did say multiply, so that was a mistake.

But I don't think it disqualifies her from being trustworthy as our public health director. She has been on camera for hours and hours and hours over the past couple of months. I'm willing to give her a little grace. She's human.

 

I sure do hope she is just making errors.  Not unwittingly revealing something else that’s atypical about SARS2.  😶

 

I started 🤔 thinking, what if SARS2 is atypical in ability to survive, or what if, unlike in  a Laboratory setting a typical house environment, dirty kitchen say, acts like a virus transport medium ... long enough for the virus to get to some host cells where it *can* multiply...   ????

 

so I checked what types of things can work to store virus, and some in more ordinary home versions might well be on a kitchen counter, on dirty plates, etc...  broth, sucrose, sorbitol, bentonite (or similar clay soil compound)...  the following is from a 20th century discussion of virus transport media — I’ll try to add a citation.  

It didn’t copy well.  Sorry. A lot of the discussion had to do with avoiding contamination with other microbes, so antibiotics for example, — not so much a problem with the virus becoming inactivated too soon.    Looks like most virus studied was going strong at 21 days if it had something helpful to survive on... a little sucrose or sorbitol, or soy or meat broth or bentonite clay...   none was dealing with a coronavirus ...  🤷‍♀️    

And then what?  Suppose the virus hung around on an unnoticed dirty dish, or drip somewhere...  Might it survive in a mouse, cat, human who comes along in that 21 days?   Especially now putting this together with the findings that it replicates well in intestinal tract (I posted on long thread, iirc). 

Ick. 🤮 I think I had Better go do some cleaning. 😁

 

Quote:

”

Broth-basedmedia.Viraltransportmediacomposedpri-
marilyofbacteriologicalbroth(nutrient,trypticsoy, tryp- tosephosphate,andvealinfusionbroths)withsomearrayof additives, such as additional protein, salt, phenol red indi- cator,orantibiotics,havebeenusedbymanylaboratories (6,8,42,45,57,69).Recommendationsfortheirusehave beenbasedsomewhaton tradition.
The number of virus isolates obtained from specimens transportedintrypticsoy brothas comparedwithCVTM was determined(57).

 

...

From3to21dayselapsedfromthetimeofcollectiontothe timeofprocessingforisolation.Theviralisolatesobtainedin these specimens consisted of adenoviruses, coxsackievirus A21,influenzaviruses,parainfluenzaviruses,andpoliovi- ruses. Because the specimens held in the two transport mediawere collectedindifferentways (swabsandgargled media)andtheholdingtemperatures were different,direct comparisonsoftheeffectivenessofthetwo transport media couldnotbemade.Nevertheless,theauthorsreportedthat approximately twice the number of virus isolates were detectedinthebrothtransportas fromtheCVTM.
tropositive and electronegative proteins. The essential ingre- dientinbentonitetransportmediumisbentoniteitself,either uncoated or coated with serum proteins (10).

 

Coxsackie- virusesA9andB5,Echovirus11,adenovirus5,influenza virus A2, parainfluenza viruses, rubella viruses, and HSV maintained their I lnfectivity

withoutlossoftiterinbentonite transportmediumfor3to21days,dependingonthevirus type.

 

...
Buffered sorbitol and sucrose-based solutions. Sorbitol is a cryoprotectant and thus has been used both for the storage ofviruses and as an additive intransport media (3...

. Positive cultures
were obtainedwhenspecimenson swabswere placedin
tryptic soy broth and then held at 40C before and during
transport (6, 78). Nutrient broth (8), calf infusion broth (12,
39), brain heart infusion broth (78), and tryptose-phosphate
brothwithbovineserum albumin(79)were alsoused suc-
cessfully. ...

” 

[alewife]

2 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

ok, my google skills are failing me, I can't find anything about her saying it can multiply on a countertop. Link?

I posted a video on page 6 of this thread

[Corraleno]

6 hours ago, PrincessMommy said:

Yes, it was always driven home that our goal was to flattening the curve.  For someone to suggest it was an oversimplification is frustrating and insulting to the American public. The target seems to be moving..

It seems like a lot of people mistakenly assumed that as soon as there were empty hospital beds, the goal was met, and since there are now empty beds and states have not reopened, they were lied to, or the target was moved or whatever. But the goal is and always has been to avoid overwhelming hospitals, and slowing the spread is only ONE component of that process. The other components are having adequate PPE and medical equipment to treat those who are hospitalized, and expanding the capacity for testing and tracing in order to keep the curve flat. That's what all states are working towards, and some are closer than others to meeting all of those parameters. If people think the only number that matters is the number of empty hospital beds, then they do have an oversimplified understanding of the issue.

[Ausmumof3]

46 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

I sure do hope she is just making errors.  Not unwittingly revealing something else that’s atypical about SARS2.  😶

 

I started 🤔 thinking, what if SARS2 is atypical in ability to survive, or what if, unlike in  a Laboratory setting a typical house environment, dirty kitchen say, acts like a virus transport medium ... long enough for the virus to get to some host cells where it *can* multiply...   ????

 

so I checked what types of things can work to store virus, and some in more ordinary home versions might well be on a kitchen counter, on dirty plates, etc...  broth, sucrose, sorbitol, bentonite (or similar clay soil compound)...  the following is from a 20th century discussion of virus transport media — I’ll try to add a citation.  

It didn’t copy well.  Sorry. A lot of the discussion had to do with avoiding contamination with other microbes, so antibiotics for example, — not so much a problem with the virus becoming inactivated too soon.    Looks like most virus studied was going strong at 21 days if it had something helpful to survive on... a little sucrose or sorbitol, or soy or meat broth or bentonite clay...   none was dealing with a coronavirus ...  🤷‍♀️    

And then what?  Suppose the virus hung around on an unnoticed dirty dish, or drip somewhere...  Might it survive in a mouse, cat, human who comes along in that 21 days?   Especially now putting this together with the findings that it replicates well in intestinal tract (I posted on long thread, iirc). 

Ick. 🤮 I think I had Better go do some cleaning. 😁

 

Quote:

”

Broth-basedmedia.Viraltransportmediacomposedpri-
marilyofbacteriologicalbroth(nutrient,trypticsoy, tryp- tosephosphate,andvealinfusionbroths)withsomearrayof additives, such as additional protein, salt, phenol red indi- cator,orantibiotics,havebeenusedbymanylaboratories (6,8,42,45,57,69).Recommendationsfortheirusehave beenbasedsomewhaton tradition.
The number of virus isolates obtained from specimens transportedintrypticsoy brothas comparedwithCVTM was determined(57).

 

...

From3to21dayselapsedfromthetimeofcollectiontothe timeofprocessingforisolation.Theviralisolatesobtainedin these specimens consisted of adenoviruses, coxsackievirus A21,influenzaviruses,parainfluenzaviruses,andpoliovi- ruses. Because the specimens held in the two transport mediawere collectedindifferentways (swabsandgargled media)andtheholdingtemperatures were different,direct comparisonsoftheeffectivenessofthetwo transport media couldnotbemade.Nevertheless,theauthorsreportedthat approximately twice the number of virus isolates were detectedinthebrothtransportas fromtheCVTM.
tropositive and electronegative proteins. The essential ingre- dientinbentonitetransportmediumisbentoniteitself,either uncoated or coated with serum proteins (10).

 

Coxsackie- virusesA9andB5,Echovirus11,adenovirus5,influenza virus A2, parainfluenza viruses, rubella viruses, and HSV maintained their I lnfectivity

withoutlossoftiterinbentonite transportmediumfor3to21days,dependingonthevirus type.

 

...
Buffered sorbitol and sucrose-based solutions. Sorbitol is a cryoprotectant and thus has been used both for the storage ofviruses and as an additive intransport media (3...

. Positive cultures
were obtainedwhenspecimenson swabswere placedin
tryptic soy broth and then held at 40C before and during
transport (6, 78). Nutrient broth (8), calf infusion broth (12,
39), brain heart infusion broth (78), and tryptose-phosphate
brothwithbovineserum albumin(79)were alsoused suc-
cessfully. ...

” 

My biology Knowledge is fuzzy but is that a case of multiplying or just surviving because that’s a key difference.  Having a couple of virus particles sitting in the bench is one kind of risk but having them multiply and increase would be far more dangerous but I don’t think possible?  Because they have to be in a live cell?

[Terabith]

5 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

This.  I also think that early on, it seemed like the biggest problems were going to be ventilators and beds, but those issues turned out to be easier to solve than PPE and tests.  All of those things, though, are part of the healthcare system that we need to protect. 

In addition though, if you look at all the graphs out there, the goal has always been to flatten the curve and then keep it flattened.  When this started, I saw lots of graphs that looked like this, minus the cats (I just like the cats).  None of them showed a delayed spike.  They showed a curve that was flattened, and then stayed flattened until the end of the virus.  

I love the kitty chart.  I think the reason the need for ventilators has been less than feared is because they have figured out other ways to treat the virus (prone positioning, CPAPs, etc).  But also, social distancing has WORKED.  It has flattened the curve.  But the issue with social distancing is that the curve doesn't stay flat once you let up, especially if you let up before you get really close to zero.  But we've been pretty half assed about our social distancing, and we're letting up pretty quickly.  I'm very concerned that alert kitty is going to shred a health care system that still doesn't have anything approaching enough PPE.  

[Corraleno]

5 hours ago, EmseB said:

I'm saying that the mantra from a certain viewpoint seems to be that any governor or local official needs to have a plan in place to prevent spikes in cases or outbreaks if they reopen anything at all. I personally don't think that's possible. I think there needs to be a plan for when outbreaks happen in any given locale.

The same question about planning is not being asked, that I can see, for the fallout for keeping schools and businesses closed. There isn't the same amount of scrutiny that I've seen except that maybe the federal government should be printing more money to help those losing jobs. I don't know, maybe it's just not a well publicized as the "if you want to reopen you deserve what's coming" sentiment. 

To me, "spike" and "outbreak" are not synonymous. There will certainly continue to be outbreaks after things start to reopen, but one of the most important components of every state plan is increasing testing & tracing capacity in order to contain outbreaks as they happen, and therefore avoid huge spikes that overwhelm hospitals and undo months of "flattening the curve." So I guess whether the idea of "preventing spikes" makes sense or not depends on how you define a "spike" — to me that term implies a very sudden, sharp, almost vertical increase, so I would hope that effective testing & tracing during outbreaks would prevent the kind of major spikes that overwhelm hospitals and put us back at square 1.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Corraleno

[Guest]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

I don't think it's totally accurate, though. Or at least not a complete picture. It is pithy, but not that simple, IMO. Because any governing authority who used that phrase to justify a continued stricter lockdown in a state with low numbers and furloughed health workers would scare me for not understanding the nuance of running some systems and supply chains into the ground.

Sure it's the virus, but we are thinking, reasoning humans who have to make more nuanced decisions than a virus.

It’s accurate where *I* live. Nobody I know is arguing for opening the entire US economy; they are arguing to open Maryland and they are furious with our Governor for keeping restrictions in place. So this is what I have been trying to describe but not zeroing in on it properly like Danae did when she wrote that. 

The lockdown is not the reason our tenant who works in an ice cream shop isn’t getting paid to serve ice cream, the virus is. The lockdown is not the reason my kid may not attend summer camp, the virus is. The lockdown is not the reason I haven’t been to get my gray touched up, the virus is. The lockdown is not the reason....XYZ bazillion engines of commerce are currently not operational. The virus is! 

To me, Danae’s sentence was not just pithy; it’s perfect. It’s exactly what agitates me when internet trolls plague the Governor’s FB page with criticisms because he has not lifted the restrictions. Their blame is misplaced; they are behaving as though all the bad fallout is the Governor’s fault and that if he would just lift all the restrictions, we could get back to normal. I disagree, as well as don’t think the “old” normal will ever be a thing again. We will have to create a new normal. 

[EmseB]

22 minutes ago, Quill said:

It’s accurate where *I* live. Nobody I know is arguing for opening the entire US economy; they are arguing to open Maryland and they are furious with our Governor for keeping restrictions in place. So this is what I have been trying to describe but not zeroing in on it properly like Danae did when she wrote that. 

The lockdown is not the reason our tenant who works in an ice cream shop isn’t getting paid to serve ice cream, the virus is. The lockdown is not the reason my kid may not attend summer camp, the virus is. The lockdown is not the reason I haven’t been to get my gray touched up, the virus is. The lockdown is not the reason....XYZ bazillion engines of commerce are currently not operational. The virus is! 

To me, Danae’s sentence was not just pithy; it’s perfect. It’s exactly what agitates me when internet trolls plague the Governor’s FB page with criticisms because he has not lifted the restrictions. Their blame is misplaced; they are behaving as though all the bad fallout is the Governor’s fault and that if he would just lift all the restrictions, we could get back to normal. I disagree, as well as don’t think the “old” normal will ever be a thing again. We will have to create a new normal. 

Okay, so to use your example, this is exactly what I was saying in my post. I don't understand why ice cream can't be served. Here, the line for the Baskin Robbins drive through is longer than ever because no one is going in...and there is a local dairy farm doing contactless pick ups for their products including ice creams. They did so much business on the first day they opened that they had to hire more people. The reason your tenant lost his job is decidedly *not* the virus. It is policy. It is either state/local policy closing his shop, or his management being unwilling to flex to a different model of sales. We can debate whether or not it is wise or sound for companies to be selling ice cream, but it isn't the virus causing the job loss in that case and in many others. In some places hair dressers have been selling dye kits and doing phone consultations to keep afloat. If that is not allowed, that is not the virus doing that, it is draconian measures, IMO, stifling business people that might otherwise be able to bridge the gap with *something* while all of this is happening.

In some cases like theaters and camps and such, yes, that is unavoidable because of potential spread. That is the virus. But not all closures and loss of income can be summaried that way. Part of the problem is that so many think in that kind of black and white, so it's either get ice cream or get the virus. Not that simple.

[Corraleno]

5 hours ago, square_25 said:

I don't think there has to be a plan to PREVENT spikes. There has to be a plan about what happens when you reopen. Are you trying to limit spread? Are you building up hospital capacity? What has to happen for you to close again? Are you increasing testing and contact tracing? 

I actually do think there should be hard questions asked about people who are staying closed. Namely, what are you doing while you're closed? Are you thinking about how to reopen? Staying closed was never supposed to do anything except buy time. What have you done with the time you bought? 

My state is being slow to reopen despite having had pretty low/stable numbers for a while, but I think the plan released by the governor seems reasonable and appropriately cautious. They have greatly increased testing capacity, have distributed more tests (regular and antibody) to rural hospitals, have commissioned a major research study to test and track 100,000 randomly selected people, are hiring and training 600 contact tracers, are developing programs to assist people in quarantine (including providing oximeters, delivering food, making alternate living arrangements if necessary, and other kinds of help), and plan for a slow, phased reopening starting in the most rural counties with the fewest cases. I'm on the outskirts of the largest metro area, so I assume we will be among the last to reopen, but I'm fine with that. 

[katilac]

24 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

I have never heard of drive thru Baskin Robbins, do they hand the drippy cone to you inside your car?  Or does everyone just get milkshakes?  I live in an area that just doesn't have drive thrus very much. 

Ours doesn't have drive thru, but we still always get our ice cream and leave (so obviously taking it to the car). If the driver has a cone, we have it put in a cup. Dairy Queens and Chick Fil A's almost always have drive thrus, and they sell ice cream cones. 

I love BR ice cream, but find their stores small and uncomfortable, and they're always playing the dang radio. I like to relax with my ice cream. I take it very seriously, lol. 

 

[HeartString]

This came across my Facebook feed and it seemed relevant to this thread. 
 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/

 

“A lack of expertise becomes problematic when it’s combined with extreme overconfidence, and with society’s tendency to reward projected confidence over humility. “When scientists offer caveats instead of absolutes,” Gralinski says, “that uncertainty we’re trained to acknowledge makes it sound like no one knows what’s going on, and creates opportunities for people who present as skeptics.”

 

In a pandemic, the strongest attractor of trust shouldn’t be confidence, but the recognition of one’s limits, the tendency to point at expertise beyond one’s own, and the willingness to work as part of a whole. “One signature a lot of these armchair epidemiologists have is a grand solution to everything,” Bergstrom says. “Usually we only see that coming from enormous research teams from the best schools, or someone’s basement.”

[PrincessMommy]

1 hour ago, Quill said:

It’s accurate where *I* live. Nobody I know is arguing for opening the entire US economy; they are arguing to open Maryland and they are furious with our Governor for keeping restrictions in place. So this is what I have been trying to describe but not zeroing in on it properly like Danae did when she wrote that. 

The lockdown is not the reason our tenant who works in an ice cream shop isn’t getting paid to serve ice cream, the virus is. The lockdown is not the reason my kid may not attend summer camp, the virus is. The lockdown is not the reason I haven’t been to get my gray touched up, the virus is. The lockdown is not the reason....XYZ bazillion engines of commerce are currently not operational. The virus is! 

To me, Danae’s sentence was not just pithy; it’s perfect. It’s exactly what agitates me when internet trolls plague the Governor’s FB page with criticisms because he has not lifted the restrictions. Their blame is misplaced; they are behaving as though all the bad fallout is the Governor’s fault and that if he would just lift all the restrictions, we could get back to normal. I disagree, as well as don’t think the “old” normal will ever be a thing again. We will have to create a new normal. 

oh my gosh... I was shocked the other day when I checked the comments box on the governor's FB page on one of his posts.  Silly me, I thought I was going to find further information and pithy discussion.  🤯

[Frances]

51 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

None of the Chick Fil A's or Dairy Queens around here have drive thrus.  It wasn't until recently that I posted something about Chick Fil A and realized that that is uncommon.  

No drive thru at Dairy Queen? I’m not sure I’ve ever actually been in a Dairy Queen. The rare times we ago, we always do drive thru.

[Frances]

The man who was the first to be diagnosed in my state was just released from the hospital and is headed to a skilled nursing facility. He is a 46 year old school janitor who got sick in mid February. I had no idea he was still in the hospital!

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/oregons-first-coronavirus-patient-lake-oswego-school-custodian-released-from-hospital-after-2-months.html

 

[Matryoshka]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

Okay, so to use your example, this is exactly what I was saying in my post. I don't understand why ice cream can't be served. Here, the line for the Baskin Robbins drive through is longer than ever because no one is going in...and there is a local dairy farm doing contactless pick ups for their products including ice creams. They did so much business on the first day they opened that they had to hire more people.

We're in a pretty locked-down state with a ton of cases.  Our local ice cream place is doing a brisk business, but it's always been bought at windows outside.  Used to be lines half an hour long at each window, but now they have employees directing cars waiting in a line (it's a long line), only every other window is open, and only one person can be at a window at a time.  When one person leaves, the next person is directed to park and order.  There used to be outside seating, but that's closed, as is the attached country store/gift shop (indoors) , and the golf course, mini golf, bumper boats, etc (all outdoors).  They also had an outside grill and catered corporate parties under tents out back, which would also be on hold for now.  So business is way down, but lots of ice cream is being sold.  I think they even opened ice cream sales early this year - probably figured it would be all the business they'd have for a while...

[hopeallgoeswell]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

 

I think it's generally a societal problem, frankly :-). I've definitely had kids in calculus classes be nonplussed that I'd sometimes say "Well, I don't know, let me check." They definitely thought teachers were supposed to act like they had all the answers, not like there was a joint truth to be discovered. 

My oldest is 17.  She was telling me about a shirt that said, " Question everything except your mother."  My immediate response was, " I hope you question me. I don't know even a small portion of Everything. Question every one."

[Pen]

4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

My biology Knowledge is fuzzy but is that a case of multiplying or just surviving because that’s a key difference.  Having a couple of virus particles sitting in the bench is one kind of risk but having them multiply and increase would be far more dangerous but I don’t think possible?  Because they have to be in a live cell?

 

That is “Just” surviving.  But seems like very very successfully surviving.  And I don’t know if they then need a human cell — if they had lived in bats at one point perhaps, maybe they can catch a ride inside other animal vectors, other cell types.  We really don’t know that they cannot.  Fleas? Dust mites? Mice? Mosquitoes...?   

And we really don’t know that the virus can’t go house cat to human...

We do not know a lot more than we do know.

And we keep assuming this virus can’t ______, and then finding out that yes, this particular one can do the unusual or atypical thing. 

So, think about if an invisible dust mite can be a live cell growth animal vector for SARS2...

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Frances said:

The man who was the first to be diagnosed in my state was just released from the hospital and is headed to a skilled nursing facility. He is a 46 year old school janitor who got sick in mid February. I had no idea he was still in the hospital!

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/oregons-first-coronavirus-patient-lake-oswego-school-custodian-released-from-hospital-after-2-months.html

 

 

Alas he is great example of how it can be a very big deal illness even in a reasonably young person. 

I hope he will recover fully.  

Do they know from whom he contracted the virus? 

 

 

 

[EmseB]

3 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

There are absolutely parts of the economic piece that are mostly the shutdown, and parts that are mostly the virus.   The lines just aren't as clear as people make them out to be.  I'm not saying you, but many people on both sides seem to think it's simple, when it's not.

I have never heard of drive thru Baskin Robbins, do they hand the drippy cone to you inside your car?  Or does everyone just get milkshakes?  I live in an area that just doesn't have drive thrus very much. 

You've never gotten an ice cream cone through a drive through? Like McD's or Fosters Freeze or anywhere? Dairy Queen? Usually we got cups to catch drips but I didn't realize it was uncommon. In any case, so many places are doing drive up or drive through or contactless it doesn't seem that odd to me.

Anyway, my point was exactly that it's not simple. The virus is just going to keep mindlessly replicating; we can't do anything about that. But if a business can shift to avoid the spread they should be allowed to operate and not have an official tell them they can't because virus. The ice cream dude losing his job especially baffles me so I picked that one out, but there are others.

[EmseB]

2 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

None of the Chick Fil A's or Dairy Queens around here have drive thrus.  It wasn't until recently that I posted something about Chick Fil A and realized that that is uncommon.  

I wonder if it's a city ordinance. I once lived in a city that didn't allow any businesses to have drive-thrus.

[TravelingChris]

16 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

That's totally unacceptable and I'm sorry :-(. 

However, back to the topic of being treated as unreasonable -- I'm still not exactly hearing a plan for opening up the economy in a safe way here. What is the alternative to what most boardies are getting behind? 

I don't understand why you think the way we have opened up here in Alabama is so unsafe?  How is going to my local bird store which gets low traffic more likely to spread than Walmart?How is me stopping by a sewing machine shop wearing an N95 mask more dangerous than shopping at Lowe\s?  My city is not a hot spot and has hospital beds lying empty.  We are opening slowly- no restaurants, no bars, no gyms, no hair salons, etc until May 15th?  But as a medically needy person- I am super,. super glad that we have started to open up.  

[TravelingChris]

16 hours ago, PrincessMommy said:

The mask were used to tell the story - not to aid in sound projection.  So there's the "Angry" mask or the "Sad" mask to let the audience know where the story-line was.  Plus, the mouth part was open - so the choir (which didn't sing BTW - it spoke) could talk in unison. 

I kind of wonder about the choir outbreak.  It seems like an outlier.   Have there been other choirs who had similar outbreaks? There are choirs all over the country (mine included) who were meeting up until early/mid March.  I can only speak anecdotally, but in our parish  we have a 30-40 person choir and gather 3-5 people closely around each choir stand.  We're not sitting next to each other holding our own book. And we participate in a common cup for the Eucharist - about 120-150 persons.  No one in my parish has gotten sick from Covid.  No one has even suspected Covid (except those of us who wondered, "Allergies or Covid??").    Like I said, it's anecdotal and no news organization is going to report that we didn't have covid, because it won't sell.  Fear sells.   

Yes, there have been.  Church services or Mosque services or Temple services have been implicated in a lot of outbreaks.  We had a large outbreak here in Alabama in a rural county where an AA church had an overflowing gathering with lots of singing and tight quarters on March 9.  It was the anniversary of their pastor\s service and people came from other places too.  Last I checked, that one church gathering caused 90 symptomatic cases and I think 2 deaths.

[Frances]

On 5/4/2020 at 11:42 AM, Corraleno said:

Thanks for that link, I hadn't seen that. It looks like they are paying existing mask manufacturers to increases production at existing plants. But if the numbers in that article are correct, they will only be increasing production by ~450 million masks per year, which doesn't come close to providing what we are projected to need just for healthcare workers (3.5+ billion), let alone other workers or the public. The problem with N95 masks is that, unlike ventilators, they are disposable, so we not only need to get manufacturing up to the level we need, we need to keep it there.

Here’s an article today about PPE shortages. At the end there is a link to a website started by a doctor where they are trying to help connect supplies to places in need. There are many news articles, videos, etc about the situation and confirms that current domestic production won’t be remotely enough to solve the n95 problem.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/jared-kushner-fema-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
 

[Ausmumof3]

31 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

I don't understand why you think the way we have opened up here in Alabama is so unsafe?  How is going to my local bird store which gets low traffic more likely to spread than Walmart?How is me stopping by a sewing machine shop wearing an N95 mask more dangerous than shopping at Lowe\s?  My city is not a hot spot and has hospital beds lying empty.  We are opening slowly- no restaurants, no bars, no gyms, no hair salons, etc until May 15th?  But as a medically needy person- I am super,. super glad that we have started to open up.  

I don’t understand this?  Is the US allowing large chain stores to stay open and forcing smaller stores to close?  

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I don’t understand this?  Is the US allowing large chain stores to stay open and forcing smaller stores to close?  

 

The USA does not have national closure rules with few exceptions.  

My state certainly isn’t allowing large chains to stay open while smaller stores have to close.  

But some **types** of stores are closed currently.  Regardless of size.  (If considered non essential. So clothes stores,  boutiques, department stores, gift shops... afaik, are currently closed in my area.) whereas food stores or stores that include food are open.   I don’t know what a bird store is, but in my area stores that sell animal foods are open. 

And some stores are by appointment only, if 6ft/2 meters or so do stance can’t readily be maintained.   I think fabric stores to get mask making supplies are open.  No idea about sewing machine stores. 

[Shoeless]

18 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I don’t understand this?  Is the US allowing large chain stores to stay open and forcing smaller stores to close?  

 

Yes, depending on the state. A large chain store like Walmart will sell groceries in addition to clothes, housewares, gardening supplies, etc. So Walmart is considered "essential" because it sells food.  In most states, you can still mill around the toy section or crafts in a Walmart, because the whole store is open. But you cannot go to a small craft or toy store in my area, (Texas), because craft and toy stores are not "essential". 

So, large, high traffic chain that sells a mix of essential and non-essential items? Open.  Small, low traffic store that only sells non-essential items? Closed.

This is part of why people are in such a fizz about the US economy and how this has been handled. In some places, there have been huge crowds at the big box stores.  There are some small, low-foot traffic stores that are very unlikely to see a crowd, (like the little shoe store in my town), but they had to stay closed.  After awhile, it starts to not make sense.  I'm probably more at risk at Walmart than I am at the local shoe store, based on foot traffic. 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by MissLemon

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, MissLemon said:

 

Yes, depending on the state. A large chain store like Walmart will sell groceries in addition to clothes, housewares, gardening supplies, etc. So Walmart is considered "essential" because it sells food.  In most states, you can still mill around the toy section or crafts in a Walmart, because the whole store is open. But you cannot go to a small craft or toy store in my area, (Texas), because craft and toy stores are not "essential". 

So, large, high traffic chain that sells a mix of essential and non-essential items? Open.  Small, low traffic store that only sells non-essential items? Closed.

This is part of why people are in such a fizz about the US economy and how this has been handled. In some places, there have been huge crowds at the big box stores.  There are some small, low-foot traffic stores that are very unlikely to see a crowd, (like the little shoe store in my town), but they had to stay closed.  

 

Yeah I can see why that would cause some angst

[kbutton]

 

10 hours ago, square_25 said:

Well, it was just posted upthread, and there's really no way to interpret "a few are going to get away, they are going to start to multiply" in a reasonable way. 

Dr. Acton has been clear and consistent in what she's said overall. I was surprised to find that the video was real and not something someone with an ax to grind made up. It's NOT representative of her overall leadership or communication. I catch most Ohio press conferences. 

The figures about 100,000 people infected early on have been walked back a million times. I suspect the governor and Dr. Acton both wish they'd kept that information to themselves. They have both along with the lt. gov. have been extremely transparent about how and why they are making decisions, and if they change their mind, they are open about that as well. Being that open invites a lot of potshots. They are doing their best to be data driven but also implement that data in as safe, fair, consistent, and responsive a way as they can. 

6 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

One of the things that I don't understand about the push to open up fast, is how it's supposed to save the economy.   It will only work if people aren't scared.   If people don't go to the restaurants, or the movie theaters, or the bowling alleys, then I don't see how allowing them to be open leads to more jobs.  Officially allowing elective procedures doesn't do much if patients are too scared to schedule them, and looking at the drops in ER visits tells us they probably will be.  Opening up will mean more disruptions to the food chain, because more workers will be sickened.

I'm not saying we shouldn't open up, I think we need to, but carefully and thoughtfully, because both shutdowns and out of control virus spread are bad for the economy.  I feel like the question isn't really Grandma vs. the economy.  It's Grandma and the economy vs. just the economy.  

History agrees with you according to this article: https://www.businessinsider.com/lessons-1918-flu-reopening-coronavirus-pandemic-too-soon-2020-4?fbclid=IwAR3OPDVbhwnwKQw1NUNDbKeX9E5uXDMdHbK9C0WipmkOTLcMc9Ta3_j-8r8

Governor DeWine in Ohio has made this point as well. 

Local ED volume is down here, and it's the main source of healthcare for a lot of our community (many people use the ED as their only care). 

[kbutton]

22 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I don’t understand this?  Is the US allowing large chain stores to stay open and forcing smaller stores to close?  

My state has some guidelines on what is considered essential and non-essential, but they basically just told businesses that if they choose to remain open, they needed to be able to provide social distancing and to have a ready answer for what makes them essential. That has allowed a lot of smaller businesses to creatively maintain a customer base even if it's not as profitable as it typical would be. They also set up an appeal process for inconsistencies in how the rules are applied. They are bending over backwards to make this fair. 

[Bootsie]

2 hours ago, kbutton said:

 

Dr. Acton has been clear and consistent in what she's said overall. I was surprised to find that the video was real and not something someone with an ax to grind made up. It's NOT representative of her overall leadership or communication. I catch most Ohio press conferences. 

The figures about 100,000 people infected early on have been walked back a million times. I suspect the governor and Dr. Acton both wish they'd kept that information to themselves. They have both along with the lt. gov. have been extremely transparent about how and why they are making decisions, and if they change their mind, they are open about that as well. Being that open invites a lot of potshots. They are doing their best to be data driven but also implement that data in as safe, fair, consistent, and responsive a way as they can. 

History agrees with you according to this article: https://www.businessinsider.com/lessons-1918-flu-reopening-coronavirus-pandemic-too-soon-2020-4?fbclid=IwAR3OPDVbhwnwKQw1NUNDbKeX9E5uXDMdHbK9C0WipmkOTLcMc9Ta3_j-8r8

Governor DeWine in Ohio has made this point as well. 

Local ED volume is down here, and it's the main source of healthcare for a lot of our community (many people use the ED as their only care). 

I can't find any evidence about the economy in this article.  Am I missing it?  It does talk about death rates and makes the statement:

Studies of the "Great Influenza" of 1918 concluded that cities that adopted "non-pharmaceutical intervention" measures earlier and kept them in place for longer did better, both health-wise and economically. Specifically, they had fewer deaths and their economies recovered faster.

But I cannot find that it points to any article, evidence or study that says any about how cities did economically.

[Guest]

8 hours ago, EmseB said:

Okay, so to use your example, this is exactly what I was saying in my post. I don't understand why ice cream can't be served. Here, the line for the Baskin Robbins drive through is longer than ever because no one is going in...and there is a local dairy farm doing contactless pick ups for their products including ice creams. They did so much business on the first day they opened that they had to hire more people. The reason your tenant lost his job is decidedly *not* the virus. It is policy. It is either state/local policy closing his shop, or his management being unwilling to flex to a different model of sales. We can debate whether or not it is wise or sound for companies to be selling ice cream, but it isn't the virus causing the job loss in that case and in many others. In some places hair dressers have been selling dye kits and doing phone consultations to keep afloat. If that is not allowed, that is not the virus doing that, it is draconian measures, IMO, stifling business people that might otherwise be able to bridge the gap with *something* while all of this is happening.

In some cases like theaters and camps and such, yes, that is unavoidable because of potential spread. That is the virus. But not all closures and loss of income can be summaried that way. Part of the problem is that so many think in that kind of black and white, so it's either get ice cream or get the virus. Not that simple.

The specific ice cream place I’m talking about is a small indie shop in a walkable Main Street town, not a Baskin-Robbins drive-through. Lots and lots of food-service places here have not been closed by the government; they are allowed to be open for pick up. But their business model is not based on pick up; it’s based on foot traffic, weekend shoppers, city events. They aren’t making enough money from that, so they have to close. In some cases, I assume there are also some supply-chain problems. Can’t sell home-style artisan ice cream if you can’t get your shipments of milk and cream.

I am in favor of allowing businesses to operate if they can operate safely. That’s a big but, though. All around me I see businesses that cannot operate at all or in a normal fashion because of the virus, not because of restrictions. My nephew and his wife run an event facility. At present they have no weddings, proms, conventions, etc. on the schedule and thus, no income. That is not because of lockdown; it is because of the virus. Same is true for friends who make a living from travel, entertainment, social events, etc. 

AFA businesses operating in a different manner, like your hair stylist example selling a dye kit, I’m sure that is happening now anyway, and I’m absolutely certain there are a lot of beauty services going on off-radar. In a post a while ago, I talked about how I know my hair dresser would do my hair at home if I asked. But they are not petitioning the government for selling dye kits with phone consults; they are petitioning to do beauty services one-on-one, which is a problem because of the virus. *I*, personally, have no intention at all of getting my hair done for an indefinite length of time. This is because of the virus, not because of restrictions. I, personally, don’t want to sit in a chair having someone breathing in my face, who has also been breathing in other people’s faces all day. 

For your last paragraph, sure, it’s complex. I don’t think anyone thinks it’s simple. But a large amount of chain-reaction effects are started by the virus, not by restrictions. I am seeing a lot of businesses morph to fit the new situation, even as some don’t really have a way to do that at all. My husband just told me yesterday he got his first job bid that is a direct result of coronavirus: an office building that wants to instal all touch-less, sensor-operated bathroom fixtures and even wants a door pedal so people do not touch the door handle. So, yes, some things can change to suit a new reality. But others can’t really manage it. But...it’s not because of restrictions. Its because of the virus.

[Jaybee]

8 hours ago, Frances said:

The man who was the first to be diagnosed in my state was just released from the hospital and is headed to a skilled nursing facility. He is a 46 year old school janitor who got sick in mid February. I had no idea he was still in the hospital!

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/05/oregons-first-coronavirus-patient-lake-oswego-school-custodian-released-from-hospital-after-2-months.html

 

And in my state, they count anyone who has not died or is not in the hospital as "recovered" after 14 days from testing or onset of symptoms.

[kbutton]

5 hours ago, Bootsie said:

I can't find any evidence about the economy in this article.  Am I missing it?  It does talk about death rates and makes the statement:

Studies of the "Great Influenza" of 1918 concluded that cities that adopted "non-pharmaceutical intervention" measures earlier and kept them in place for longer did better, both health-wise and economically. Specifically, they had fewer deaths and their economies recovered faster.

But I cannot find that it points to any article, evidence or study that says any about how cities did economically.

It is more implied than stated. There is a documentary from American Experience on the 1918 pandemic, and it talks about how businesses shut down because there was no one to keep them going--entire sets of employees at individual places of business were sick simultaneous and/or dead. 

[SKL]

Many of the closures/restrictions/shortages are NOT "because of the virus" but "because of some people's intellectual and emotional reactions to the virus."  IMO there is a huge difference.

[Bootsie]

1 hour ago, kbutton said:

It is more implied than stated. There is a documentary from American Experience on the 1918 pandemic, and it talks about how businesses shut down because there was no one to keep them going--entire sets of employees at individual places of business were sick simultaneous and/or dead. 

But that is no indication that places that closed down earlier or longer did better economically.  There isn't any evidence provided to even imply that.  Just as some are taking scientific information about COVID out of context, drawing conclusions, and making statements that are not grounded in fact, the same thing is happening regarding the economy

[ktgrok]

11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I don’t understand this?  Is the US allowing large chain stores to stay open and forcing smaller stores to close?  

People seem to think that because they can be exposed at Walmart, there is no point in limiting exposure anywhere. Not getting that fewer exposures is better than more exposures. Going to Walmart AND the hobby store is more exposure and potential for spread than just going to walmart. 

[EmseB]

11 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

People seem to think that because they can be exposed at Walmart, there is no point in limiting exposure anywhere. Not getting that fewer exposures is better than more exposures. Going to Walmart AND the hobby store is more exposure and potential for spread than just going to walmart. 

This greatly over simplifies the argument yet again and dismisses any possible solutions that allow the craft store and Wal-Mart to be open. Turns out craft stores and fabric stores (small, local quilt shops) could stay in business doing good business for people making masks. 

Yes, when more things open up there will be more potential for spread. We all acknowledge this.

Unless we only want big box stores and Amazon to be left when this is done, some things have to be allowed to open. Are you advocating keeping these things closed until there is no risk of spread? 

[EmseB]

Just now, square_25 said:

There will never be "no risk of spread." So I don't think anyone is advocating for that. 

Let's get away from what other people are saying. What would you personally like to have happen? What do you think is the right way to come out of this crisis? 

I've answered this question many times, from you. The answers are all embedded in the discussions. I responded to Quill about how local ice cream places are not firing but actually hiring people. I responded to Katie's assertion about risk of spread because craft stores may or may not be open. Those are examples. Businesses need to innovate. Local govenrments need to default to letting people operate curbside or with reduced capacity where they can instead of the default having things be closed.

I can't answer this question generically because there is no one right answer for every industry, every locale, every eventuality. I don't know how to answer you when the discussion gets to this point because I feel like I've been answering this question in response to specific issues all along the threads. And yet you keep asking as if there is going to be a magic bullet, a magic solution, where I can answer this in one sentence or even one post. It isn't going to happen. 

Do you really feel like there is a definitively "right way to come out of this crisis" that a homeschool mom on the internet is going to be able to articulate in one post? I'm guessing you don't, but yet you seem to almost be asking this as a gotcha or something else that I can't figure out. And the reason I say that is you seem to ask this question in each thread where these discussions about opening up happen, where people are actively discussion options for good ways to open things up in the thread itself.

[katilac]

5 hours ago, square_25 said:

In the optimal scenario, there IS no cat. 

My cats say you are rude 😸

4 minutes ago, mms said:

Well, again, the virus is not causing this. It physically cannot do anything to people except cause illness. People have analyzed the situation of a virus causing illness and acted accordingly. We can judge people’s actions and the appropriateness or inappropriateness is their response. To say the virus causes this removes the debate about whether the response was appropriate; anything we do is appropriate because we’re not doing anything, the virus is. I hope that is clearer.

I think you are pushing this example too far. People say similar things all the time, and we know what they mean. No one thinks an anthropomorphic virus is plotting to close businesses and keep people at home, whilst rubbing its hands together in glee and laughing, evil genius style. 

Saying the virus caused a certain response in no way shuts down debate. People who disagree aren't going to be befuddled and silenced because of the wording. Person A says that all ice cream parlors must be shut down because of the virus; Person B replies that they disagree due to X, Y, and Z. If they feel they must drop out of the debate because Person A said "because of the virus" then I don't think they were very invested in their thoughts to begin with.