Wading through info that conflicts... COVID related..

[Ottakee]

1 hour ago, beckyjo said:

I've seen this claim on social media a lot today, but I am still showing 67K+ on the CDC page. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Maybe they are looking at provisional death counts, which states it runs 2 weeks behind. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

That is why it all gets confusing.

And coding deaths is harder.  My FIL was listed as pneumonia...which he had....but he also had lung cancer and end stage renal failure.  Those were really what was behind his death, but the pneumonia set in because of those 2 and was his "cause of death".

[Pen]

@PrincessMommy also carefully evaluate what you read. For example, let’s look at this part from what you linked:

“Several studies have measured the fit of masks made of cloth and other homemade materials.^13,18,19 We have not used their results to evaluate mask performance, because none measured filter efficiency or included respirators as positive controls.

One study of surgical masks showing relatively high efficiencies of 70% to 95% using NIOSH test methods measured total mask efficiencies (filter plus facepiece) of 67% to 90%.⁷ These results illustrate that surgical masks, even with relatively efficient filters, do not fit well against the face.”

 

ok

first, in the top part, I would actually go to the footnoted studies and take a look.  What did they conclude?  What do I think of that? Are there other studies I can find? (I like “scholar google” to find studies. Or I go to Lancet, New England Medical Journal, British Medical Journal — Which are open to public right now. So for example, I had found indications that even multilayered gauze masks helped a lot for 1918 Influenza).  And I would ask myself does it matter if they used respirators as positive controls? If what I want to know is how does mask compare to no mask, or how does mask with a paper towel filter compare to mask with a flannel filter, or denim filter, or quilting filter...  I know it is probably going to be less good than a respirator.  But that’s not the control I am interested in. I want to know what I can readily do that is significantly better than no mask.  

 

second paragraph:  

I see that filtration reduces effectiveness in actual use —  but, I note in my own mind that it is still quite good!!! for the surgical masks.

(ETA: also note in my mind that the article authors clearly seem biased against masks to be negative about something that has gone from 70% to 95% down to 67% to 90%. To maintain that much filtration one could probably equally say that though apparently leaking around edges they still retain significant effectiveness.) 

let’s assume that I accept reason as being poor fit against face...

so I then think, okay, what can I do about that?

Micropore tape along some or all edges?

 A piece of nylon stocking to hold it closer?

Maybe a design that has a good nose and cheekbone wire and a chin elastic?

Maybe a face shield in addition to the mask? 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Pen

[Matryoshka]

33 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

And, bringing it right back to the topic of the thread....conflicting and confusing information...

I haven't seen anything claiming that the mere act of breathing through the nose is going to produce enough of anything to actually infect someone.  Talking, singing, sure, there's some evidence of that.  But just breathing?   

Here ya go. 

[Bootsie]

There is a lot we do not know about COVID-19, but it is surprising how much poor journalism there is.  For example,:

"An influential coronavirus model often cited by the White House said in a press release that it plans to revise its projections to nearly 135,000 Covid-19 deaths in the United States, an increase that one of its researchers tied to relaxed social distancing and increased mobility."  https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/us-coronavirus-update-05-04-20/h_18a3fa30e62fa417f6402308aaf3c55b

By the time you wade through this, its hard to tell what you are reading.  And with writing this poor, you wonder what has gotten messed up between the source and the report  Your really have to go back to the original sources and not rely on the reports that take things out of context in many cases.

 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

I haven’t followed the whole thread yet.  But basically that’s how science works.  Someone publishes something.  Other scientists review it and find the flaws in it.  Someone else pays attention to that fixes the flaws and someone else does a better study without the flaws and finds either the same or different results.  Gradually as bigger and better designed studies happen we get more reliable results that move toward consensus.

I think in general if you find different conflicting views overwhelming or too hard to wade through it’s probably best to just trust your health officials and follow their advice.  Before the internet that’s what we would all have had to do anyway unless we had access to medical journals or more specific information.  If you enjoy reading and learning about the science that’s going on then by all means go for it.

one other issue I’ve read A couple of science editors comment about is that because scientist don’t get paid directly to do peer review and there’s so many busy scientists and so much new science coming out right now the journals are having trouble actually getting peer reviewed articles to publish.  There may need to be some change to the process.

[PrincessMommy]

2 hours ago, PeterPan said:

I'm curious, what are you seeing? It's not surprising, but I just wonder. I live in one of those more rural/working class areas adjacent to a $$ big city, and I'm seeing hints at those kinds of splits on FB. And some of it's logical. If you're making decisions and your job isn't on the line, your perspective is really different from someone whose livelihood is about to go down the toilet, costing them everything they ever worked for.

 

It started with a discussion was about some mall that opened up in the midwest.  The basic mantra was they couldn't believe that people thought that "opening up the economy was more important than people's lives... I can't believe purses are more important than lives?" (that was the exact phrase).    Then another person commented about her extended family in Western PA who are upset that things are still in lock-down, which she insinuated were a bunch of country yahoos.  It went on to guns in some state capital by the next person.  Which, I know happened, but I don't know what really happened.  I just know what my FB feed is telling me.   It was all very much veiled in this "We educated *inside the beltway people* know more than those in fly-over country."   I was flabbergasted.  It has nothing to do with buying purses or getting haircuts and everything to do with getting people back to work who are hourly or self-employed.  Unfortunately, it seems like the outliers are the ones that make the news. (choir in WA state, hairdresser that got arrested,  people who drink bleach, etc. etc.). 

I  have friends who are both self-employed.  His is a mechanic and she's a tutor and they are being financially devastated by this.  But, they are afraid to speak up because they are immigrants.

[katilac]

1 hour ago, iamonlyone said:

because the posts they share are misinformation 

Someone posted today that 'there has never been a vaccination developed for a virus' 😲

[melmichigan]

8 hours ago, PrincessMommy said:

Honestly, my head is spinning.  It seems like we can find data and experts to support whatever we think about this pandemic. 

I'm downright frustrated and annoyed by the overload of information and the judgement that comes from those who disagree.... I'm hearing people say those that disagree with them are either selfish, uneducated Neanderthals or Fearmongerers who want to take away our civil liberties -(in the US and depending on the side they take).  It's like there's no middle ground and so much judging of "the other".  No one can politely disagree and give their own information.   Sorry ladies, I'm seeing it here too..  

Anyway, this came across my feed. 

Masks 4 All Not Based on Sound Data by two Drs. who specialize in respiratory issues (one specifically specializes in respiratory protection).  So, I feel like they are trustworthy.  But I also thought the Prof who produced the  Masks4All videos was trustworthy.  Ugh.  This is so frustrating. 

What says the hive??   How are you wading through the information and not allowing yourself to be caught in an echo chamber?  

I read the commentary you linked.  Two of the three arguments have little to do with masks effectiveness.  They state that people wearing them may relax social distancing, and that we need to maintain supply for medical personnel.  I scanned the references listed and many are old, some are not peer reviewed, and many support the use of surgical masks to decrease viral load.  You can also read the statistics in the commentary, and those listed in the studies they reference, and make multiple reasonable assumptions that make me wonder what they consider effective. 

Edited May 4, 2020 by melmichigan

[Pen]

2 minutes ago, katilac said:

Someone posted today that 'there has never been a vaccination developed for a virus' 😲

 

I guess I should be saddened by woeful lack of knowledge.  But ... I dunno, that’s so left field I just literally started laughing!  

Posted Where?

 

[wathe]

2 hours ago, Plum said:

Hospital workers have to get fit tested for the PPE. It's not one size fits all. Those of us making masks ourselves have discovered this first-hand. I posted what they do for that fit-testing on the big thread. It's a lengthy process to ensure there is a good seal. It's also why I don't think the general public (excluding vulnerable demos) really needs to be buying up N95. The chances they will buy one that magically fits them well enough to seal is slim. Realistically, the chances that they will wear it properly the entire time they are out and about, talking to friends and workers is slim. True respirators are uncomfortable, oppressively hot, claustrophobic, and difficult to breathe in. 

 

This.  So much this.

I admit to feeling a little ragey inside when I see Joe Public in a badly-fitting or improperly worn n95.  Because I have to wear a surgical mask at the hospital for emergency dept shifts because we don't have enough n95's.  One surgical mask per shift.   The same surgical mask for my entire shift.  Even when caring for known COVID positive patients.  N95's are reserved for aerosol-generating procedures only.

[Ausmumof3]

16 minutes ago, PrincessMommy said:

 

It started with a discussion was about some mall that opened up in the midwest.  The basic mantra was they couldn't believe that people thought that "opening up the economy was more important than people's lives... I can't believe purses are more important than lives?" (that was the exact phrase).    Then another person commented about her extended family in Western PA who are upset that things are still in lock-down, which she insinuated were a bunch of country yahoos.  It went on to guns in some state capital by the next person.  Which, I know happened, but I don't know what really happened.  I just know what my FB feed is telling me.   It was all very much veiled in this "We educated *inside the beltway people* know more than those in fly-over country."   I was flabbergasted.  It has nothing to do with buying purses or getting haircuts and everything to do with getting people back to work who are hourly or self-employed.  Unfortunately, it seems like the outliers are the ones that make the news. (choir in WA state, hairdresser that got arrested,  people who drink bleach, etc. etc.). 

I  have friends who are both self-employed.  His is a mechanic and she's a tutor and they are being financially devastated by this.  But, they are afraid to speak up because they are immigrants.

I have no science and just my opinion for this but I think the other reason for urban rural divide is that urban living typically is perceived as being worse for an infectious disease. 
 

although the rural areas here are extremely keen to keep tourists out right now because they don’t have much in the way of hospital facilities if stuff goes wrong. 

[Ausmumof3]

9 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

See, and that's probably at least in *part* based in confusion.......because as far as I am aware...there has no vaccine ever developed for a *corona*virus🤣🤣

Well there has been in chickens apparently... just to add to the confusion 😂😂

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

And, bringing it right back to the topic of the thread....conflicting and confusing information...

I haven't seen anything claiming that the mere act of breathing through the nose is going to produce enough of anything to actually infect someone.  Talking, singing, sure, there's some evidence of that.  But just breathing?   

yes. Breathing. And really, are we going to say talking is now a matter of hygiene? The point was that hygiene is not the only driver, and that blaming the number of sick people on folks just not using proper hygiene, or thinking that washing your hands when you get home will protect you, is untrue. 

If you go out and about, talk, breathe, etc yes you can spread. Or at least, as far as well can tell, you can probably spread it. Which really, is the best we have on ANY of it. 

20 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

See, and there's that pesky little "may be able to" and "studies aren't conclusive" and "is plausible" and all the other caveats that jumble up all the information.  Its exactly that sort of thing that confuses the heck out of people.  Maybe, but maybe not, but maybe, but maybe not.  

 

Maybe breathing can spread it but maybe not.  Maybe sunlight on surfaces inactivates it, but maybe not.  Maybe remdesivir helps, but maybe not.  

And all of these things are ALL true, and very much subject to that whole "rushing to information" that I mentioned in my first post.  And sometimes........all people can do is just decide which side of the "maybe" "could be" "is plausible" that they want to fall on.  

Right. There is no 100 percent with this. Or a lot of things. I don't know for SURE that if I eat raw chicken I'm going to get sick, but because we know it is possible, I cook it. We do't know for absolute sure that you can spread it just breathing and talking, but it sure does seem to point that way wiht the evidence we have. So given that it is very very possible that we are spreading it that way, that the evidence fits with that, we should proceed with that as the assumption until or unless proven otherwise. 

12 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

See, and that's probably at least in *part* based in confusion.......because as far as I am aware...there has no vaccine ever developed for a *corona*virus🤣🤣

Seriously? You think it really is confusing, and people don't know that there are other viruses? And if they don't, that's scary. (given, our own president doesn't seem to know the difference between bacteria and viruses...so maybe?)

[Pawz4me]

9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Well there has been in chickens apparently... just to add to the confusion 😂😂

And dogs. And I think cattle.

[Scarlett]

I will say this.....I live in a rural community roughly 45 minutes to a large city.  I had to go in WM yesterday because my cat was sick and she needed something....I had a mask on.  WM employees all had mask on...maybe 1 in 10 customers had a mask on.  

Today I took my friend into the city (she is autoimmune compromised---is that the right way to say it?)  We made a trip to Trader Joes and to Sprouts.  We both had masks.  She had not been out of the house in like 6 weeks and she was just about to go insane....anyway, I noticed immediately that in the city almost 100 of shoppers had masks.  The difference was astonishing to me.  

So I think this divide and confusion is fueled by economic differences and by politics.  I am personally just trying to be smart.

[Pen]

32 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

See, and that's probably at least in *part* based in confusion.......because as far as I am aware...there has no vaccine ever developed for a *corona*virus🤣🤣

 

Oh no. You are merely unaware.

There have been a number of vaccines for quite a few animal coronaviruses.  

I think that it is good to keep that quiet though lest people go buy bovine or porcine etc coronavirus vaccines at the animal supply mart and and vaccinate themselves.  Sometimes a little information can be a very dangerous thing!!!

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by Pen

[Frances]

On the lighter side, a humorous take on all of the conflicting information.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/opinion/dave-eggers-coronavirus-questions.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

[Pen]

22 minutes ago, Scarlett said:

I will say this.....I live in a rural community roughly 45 minutes to a large city.  I had to go in WM yesterday because my cat was sick and she needed something....I had a mask on.  WM employees all had mask on...maybe 1 in 10 customers had a mask on.  

Today I took my friend into the city (she is autoimmune compromised---is that the right way to say it?) 

 

Autoimmune is generally an *excess* of immune function sort of more like a little cytokine storm going on — possibly attacking only limited types of cells.

Immune compromised usually refers to a *lack* 

of immune system functioning. 

22 minutes ago, Scarlett said:

We made a trip to Trader Joes and to Sprouts.  We both had masks.  She had not been out of the house in like 6 weeks and she was just about to go insane....anyway, I noticed immediately that in the city almost 100 of shoppers had masks.  The difference was astonishing to me.  

So I think this divide and confusion is fueled by economic differences and by politics.  I am personally just trying to be smart.

 

The differences you saw at different stores is interesting. I also was at two stores last time and saw close to 100% mask wearing among customers at one and probably only around 50% at the other.  

What people see others do will also probably make a difference. So if more people go to WM in masks probably more people yet will wear them.  If people with masks decide to give WM a miss then it will probably stay less mask wearing unless there’s a policy from on high — corporate or governmental. 

[Ausmumof3]

3 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Interestingly, months ago, I figured the IFR was going to settle around .5%.   But....it was an opinion then, just like your assumption of the same right now is still an opinion.  It's an opinion based in fact....but it's still an opinion.   

It was the WHO dude Bruce Aylford who was sure that China’s figures were accurate.  I’m still not sure what happened with that whether they pulled the wool over his eyes or what.  Maybe one day we’ll know for sure.

[katilac]

2 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I guess I should be saddened by woeful lack of knowledge.  But ... I dunno, that’s so left field I just literally started laughing!  

Posted Where?

 

It was a comment on a Facebook post about the city possibly cancelling a big event next year if we don't have a vaccine by then. 

[Ausmumof3]

22 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Well, I don't know who that is.  

This was what I based my own opinion on, in combination with my own estimates based on the data available at the time.  

 

ETA:  DOH!   Helps if I include a link, right?!?!

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

 

Among other things of course. 

The Canadian guy that led the World Health Organisation thing in China back in February.  Up till then I had assumed they were missing a lot of cases but he basically came out and said they weren’t and the figures were accurate.  I’m not talking mid March though, we are talking about mid Feb before it had even hit Italy.  

[ktgrok]

There is a difference between, "I see that we don't know about masks effectiveness fully yet, but I'll wear one just in case it protects other people" and "I see that we don't know about masks effectiveness yet, so why bother". 

[Donna]

2 hours ago, wathe said:

This.  So much this.

I admit to feeling a little ragey inside when I see Joe Public in a badly-fitting or improperly worn n95.  Because I have to wear a surgical mask at the hospital for emergency dept shifts because we don't have enough n95's.  One surgical mask per shift.   The same surgical mask for my entire shift.  Even when caring for known COVID positive patients.  N95's are reserved for aerosol-generating procedures only.

I understand your frustration with lack of proper PPE but I know my DH had three n95 masks he had purchased from a home supply store last year in order to work in the crawl space under our home. The mold and mildew he was remediating after hurricane Florence left water in the crawl space worsened his asthma so he needed the masks. When the coronavirus quarantine began, he washed the masks so he could use them when getting groceries and doing food deliveries. There were no other masks available anywhere for purchase and with his asthma and RA, he is high risk should he become infected. 

All that to say, it is possible people had masks for other reasons prior to the outbreak and are using them now. 

 

[Frances]

7 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Thanks for that link, I hadn't seen that. It looks like they are paying existing mask manufacturers to increases production at existing plants. But if the numbers in that article are correct, they will only be increasing production by ~450 million masks per year, which doesn't come close to providing what we are projected to need just for healthcare workers (3.5+ billion), let alone other workers or the public. The problem with N95 masks is that, unlike ventilators, they are disposable, so we not only need to get manufacturing up to the level we need, we need to keep it there.

Although they are now disinfecting some of the for reuse. My state just received a special trailer system that will disinfect thousands of masks everyday. The state is making it available to all of the hospitals. I do think though that it will be quite some time before the general public again has easy access to n95 masks to protect themselves or at risk friends or family members. I know I would feel way more comfortable going out and visiting elderly relatives when things open up if we had a program like South Korea where everyone could buy two ;n95 masks per week at cost.

[Frances]

17 minutes ago, Donna said:

I understand your frustration with lack of proper PPE but I know my DH had three n95 masks he had purchased from a home supply store last year in order to work in the crawl space under our home. The mold and mildew he was remediating after hurricane Florence left water in the crawl space worsened his asthma so he needed the masks. When the coronavirus quarantine began, he washed the masks so he could use them when getting groceries and doing food deliveries. There were no other masks available anywhere for purchase and with his asthma and RA, he is high risk should he become infected. 

All that to say, it is possible people had masks for other reasons prior to the outbreak and are using them now. 

 

Same here. Plus my husband is a healthcare worker, so he knows the importance of a proper fit.

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

I am not even really about retail opening up (where the "no one shows up anyway" comes from right?)  

Manufacturing "opened up" in Ohio today.  My DH, works in a manufacturing plant....though he's not on the factory line, he's a design engineer.  He still can't go back to work, designing the airbags for the vehicles that people will be buying NEXT year, or the year after....until plants in other states also go back.  

My oldest is dating a guy who is an electrical engineer at Cummins.  He's working from home....but he's starting to hit a wall.  At some point, he needs to be on campus, testing things.  For engines that will be in production in like two years.

And in fact, my DD....she works for the state, doing GIS things that honestly....I can't begin to describe, for IDOT.  IDOT is paid for with Indiana gas tax.....which is a flat X cents on the gallon....but once the usage starts to dip, the funds will still dip and job loss can still happen.  Which impacts road construction and so one...years from from now....not to mention her own current job.  

This is where the international thing kind of makes it hard because retail and manufacturing are still running here are far as I know.   Our version of social distancing is a lot milder than the US.  I also suspect that this confirms the theory that the weather/time of year plays a part because otherwise I don’t get why we seem to be better off for now.  (Also why I’m nervous about winter).   

The one thing I think that’s different is more test and trace capacity.  I think that will be the key for you guys as well.  If you can test and trace and isolate suspected cases and you can make sure you have PPE you should be able to open up.  That’s the idea of the lockdowns to get all that stuff in place.  It’s not meant to be a long term solution.  But it’s hard to know to what degree that has actually happened.  And if not why?

[Pen]

7 hours ago, SKL said:

Honestly, before this virus took hold, it never would have occurred to me that singing in a choir could be dangerous.  I mean if that was common knowledge, there wouldn't be choirs, would there?  Ever seen a choir sing with their faces masked?

 

Close? Greek chorus (Wikipedia): 

. As the Greek theatres were so large, the chorus' actions had to be exaggerated and their voices clear so that everyone could see and hear them. To do this, they used techniques such as synchronization, echo, ripple, physical theatre and the use of masks to aid them

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, happysmileylady said:

Oh yes, incredibly unpopular on the board.  Virtually every thread I participated in was all about like 1% to 3%.  

 

I think at that time most people were talking about CFR, not IFR. 

1 hour ago, happysmileylady said:

And then there's the in between.

"Based on what I have read, I don't think that they are as effective as we want from a public health standpoint, but since it's easy enough, I will go ahead and go along cause it's really not going to hurt anything."

Which is totally fine, and no one is being mean about that, or thinking that is stupid or reckless. I put that in the same category as my first option. Maybe it helps, probably not much, but we don't know, so might as well. That is not what people are upset about. what they are upset about is "I don't think they are as effective as you do, so I'm not going to wear one unless you can prove to me with absolute certainty that they might help others. Until then, I won't bother". 

1 hour ago, Donna said:

I understand your frustration with lack of proper PPE but I know my DH had three n95 masks he had purchased from a home supply store last year in order to work in the crawl space under our home. The mold and mildew he was remediating after hurricane Florence left water in the crawl space worsened his asthma so he needed the masks. When the coronavirus quarantine began, he washed the masks so he could use them when getting groceries and doing food deliveries. There were no other masks available anywhere for purchase and with his asthma and RA, he is high risk should he become infected. 

All that to say, it is possible people had masks for other reasons prior to the outbreak and are using them now. 

 

Yeah, we have one that was from a two pack DH bought when doing drywall on our bathroom. 

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

I'd say this is pretty much option a) in Katie's post. 

yes

[Ausmumof3]

48 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Oh, and....the guy my oldest is dating.....he's in the US on an H1B.   Thankfully he still has a job.  But so many of his friends, of his same culture.....they have lost their jobs.  And that puts their legal status in jeopardy.  And they sure as heck aren't finding a new job on that H1B in this.  NOR....are they able to actually get back home legally.  They are in panic mode.  I don't even know those numbers.  These are people who are hear legally, have done everything right....and might very well find themselves suddenly illegal, because of nothing they did.   (and DD's BF could be one of them....he hasn't been laid off yet, but he's truly on the bubble.)

Do they have any kind of amnesty?  That’s what other countries seem to be doing, not on an official level but on a “call the authorities and we’ll figure it out level”.

[Liz CA]

12 hours ago, PrincessMommy said:

Honestly, my head is spinning.  It seems like we can find data and experts to support whatever we think about this pandemic. 

I'm downright frustrated and annoyed by the overload of information and the judgement that comes from those who disagree.... I'm hearing people say those that disagree with them are either selfish, uneducated Neanderthals or Fearmongerers who want to take away our civil liberties -(in the US and depending on the side they take).  It's like there's no middle ground and so much judging of "the other".  No one can politely disagree and give their own information.   Sorry ladies, I'm seeing it here too..  

Anyway, this came across my feed. 

Masks 4 All Not Based on Sound Data by two Drs. who specialize in respiratory issues (one specifically specializes in respiratory protection).  So, I feel like they are trustworthy.  But I also thought the Prof who produced the  Masks4All videos was trustworthy.  Ugh.  This is so frustrating. 

What says the hive??   How are you wading through the information and not allowing yourself to be caught in an echo chamber?  

 

You have a lot of replies and I have read none...but just wanted to say you expressed exactly what I am thinking and feeling. I share in your frustration and yes, I too have been accused of "peddling unfounded information." When basics change swiftly, it does leave your head spinning. I am having a little bit of wine tonight and I am taking a walk - wanna come along virtually?  :)

 

[katilac]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Do they have any kind of amnesty?  That’s what other countries seem to be doing, not on an official level but on a “call the authorities and we’ll figure it out level”.

I don't think foreign nationals are really feeling a "we'll figure it out" kind of vibe in the states right now 😕

[Clemsondana]

I think that one of the reasons that the science seems so unsettled is that science often looks like this, but it doesn't usually play out in public.  Science journalism tends towards the awful, with headlines that dramatically overstate the results of a study.  The replication problem is real - sometimes we're not measuring what we think we're measuring - it's not just that the same drug given at different stages, doses, or combinations may have different results and the headlines all just scream Yay or Nay, but if the initial doctors use different diagnostic criteria, have patients with different genetics, etc, then they might see different effects but not have enough data to recognize what they're missing. 

But, even with no-rush regular research, scientists can become entrenched and inflexible in their conclusions.  I've read several articles where scientists are convinced that the mainstream is going down the wrong path in trying to cure a given disease but they can't get funding to investigate new ideas because 'that's not how the disease works', despite the commonly accepted idea leading nowhere.  I would have read it as sour grapes except that I've seen it happen - it's hard to get funding, or publish a paper, in an area that goes against conventional wisdom.  But, unless you're seeing paper reviews or sitting at conferences where the Q&A sessions can get a bit confrontational, it's easy to imagine that science is the openminded quest for truth that we teach kids about.  

And, finally, it's hard to know when you're looking at correlation vs causation and know how to legitimately interpret statistics.  Like, if a rate goes from 0.5% to 1%, do you think of it as increasing by 0.5 or as doubling?  Both are true, but if you do something to get a more dramatic effect or you start with a bigger number, then the difference is huge...like, if somehow you started with 30% instead, would your effect take you to 30.5 or 60 or something else?  And, how do they model how differently we live?  A person in an apartment might be in close contact with more people getting out of their building than I would going to a department store - how do they model that?  My gut tells me that vitamin D is big in several different areas, but some studies show that supplementation doesn't always have results...so are we really looking at vitamin D levels, fresh air, some other sun-induced process, epigenetic change induced by moving more (ie not being a couch potato) or just people healthy enough to be able to go outside?  We discuss confounding factors in one of my classes and it always blows students' minds..like, how do we figure out anything once we study it in the complex system that people are?  

Sorry for the ramble - I don't usually comment on threads that have contentious potential, but complications in bio research is a fascinating topic for me, having spent almost a decade in university research labs before I started teaching.  My husband is an engineer and we often marvel at how different the processes are.  He describes it as putting known inputs together to get a result - the more work that is done, the faster or better the result, more or less.  Biology research always feels a bit like flailing around in the dark - like, you have an idea and a direction and often it works somewhat like you'd expect, but then you hit walls because there's a whole level of stuff that nobody knew existed (like how we thought that sequencing the human genome would lead to all sorts of medical cures, but it led to a whole lot of 'Wow-what do all of these regulatory sequences do?  And these non-coding RNAs...there sure are a lot of them...they can't all be junk').  It's always fascinating, unless you're in a hurry to cure something.  

Edited May 5, 2020 by ClemsonDana

[TravelingChris]

16 hours ago, Fifiruth said:

Our governor is going more by data and modeling. The mayor of the biggest city said that he “didn’t feel comfortable” with the governor’s plans, so he’s extending and strengthening the restrictions for the city. They are both democrats, not that that should matter, but it seems to be that it does.  Either way, I appreciate a gut feeling but not when science needs to prevail.

I have noticed that it doesn't matter who is a Dem or a Rep when it comes to the rules.  Both have politicians who aren't doing a good job and others who are doing a good job.

[Ottakee]

8 hours ago, Danae said:

30 million is about 9% of the US population. During World War Two 11% of the US population served in the military and we found a way to pay them.

 

Entire sectors though we're not shut down.  Instead more people that had not been in the workforce before the war started joined the work force and kept everything open and expanding.  

They didn't shut down factories when so many of the young men left, instead others took their places and many more women entered the work force.

[Bootsie]

7 hours ago, Danae said:

30 million is about 9% of the US population. During World War Two 11% of the US population served in the military and we found a way to pay them.

The economic impact is going to be devastating. That’s not because of the lockdown, it’s because of the virus. There is no choice we can make that is going to save the economy as we knew it. Lifting restrictions is not going to save small business, it’s not going to save tourist locations, it’s not going to save theaters and sports organizations.  All it’s going to do is make it harder for people who are out of work to receive help and impossible for people losing their businesses to collect insurance. 
 

A private during WWII was paid approximately $700 per month equivalent to today's dollars.  I think the demographics of who was serving the military versus who is unemployed today would be greatly different.  People like dentists, who have school debt, expensive dental equipment to pay for, and a mortgage can't work.  So maintaining the unemployed today would be much more costly.  We were also coming out of a period of underutilized resources during the Great Depression, so you were utilizing resources that had not been fully utilized; now we have resources that were being utilized that are now not being used.  Even so, if you study economic history, you will find that costs involved in fighting WWII were not without severe economic consequences--which led to the 1951 Accord.  

I agree that the economic impact of this will be devastating.  I am curious of why you think it would be harder for people who are out of work to receive help if we are not under lockdown?  What type of insurance policies would a company have to have to be able to collect on the policy if a government mandated lockdown is in existence but not if the company must shut because of lack of business during a pandemic?   

[Carrie12345]

13 hours ago, Ottakee said:

That is why it all gets confusing.

And coding deaths is harder.  My FIL was listed as pneumonia...which he had....but he also had lung cancer and end stage renal failure.  Those were really what was behind his death, but the pneumonia set in because of those 2 and was his "cause of death".

I recognize that things need to be sorted for data points, but I’m really conflicted about the whole thing.  I don’t have my grandmother’s cause of death or testing result right now. She was most definitely in poor health for a long while. There were several times that we really thought we were going to lose her over the years.
But, had she been hit by a car, murdered by a caregiver, taken by a CO leak, or cracked her head in a fall, no one would have attributed her death to her existing conditions, even though they were bound to get her eventually.

[TravelingChris]

18 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

Wow, that's interesting!  Maybe the police are thinking murder/suicide sort of thing that failed?  Huh.  

I don't think so.  It is extremely rare for women to initiate murder/suicide of this kind of nature,  Women tend to do murder/suicide with children.  Also, there are cases with a woman killing her husband then herself if the husband is unable to do the actual killing.  

Edited May 5, 2020 by TravelingChris

[TravelingChris]

16 hours ago, PrincessMommy said:

This happened on March 6th.    

I agree that all of our own personal stories are driving our feelings.  We can't divorce our own experiences from data.  I think what I find frustrating is the lack of empathy for "the other".   Also, I am personally seeing elitist attitudes in my metro DC area against those who are rural/working class.  I find it upsetting and disconcerting.  

I also agree that solutions will (should?) be different depending on where you are located.  That's why I would prefer it to be done state by state (even county by county) because America has such a diverse population density and need.  

 

It really bugs me when I hear such attitudes or see them in action.  My intolerance for this attitude has been growing over the years but came into full blown despisal of this rank elitism during the 2016 election.  In fact, several years later, someone made a nasty remark about those "Trump" rural, ignorant, etc voters in a Sunday School class and I spoke up and said that such attitudes was exactly what tipped my hand in voting last Presidential election (it really didn't matter how I voted here since we were an uncontested state). As a highly educated couple, we just cannot tolerate dismissals and worse of the rural/working/serving class and also the urban poor too.   Just no.

[Ottakee]

8 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

It really bugs me when I hear such attitudes or see them in action.  My intolerance for this attitude has been growing over the years but came into full blown despisal of this rank elitism during the 2016 election.  In fact, several years later, someone made a nasty remark about those "Trump" rural, ignorant, etc voters in a Sunday School class and I spoke up and said that such attitudes was exactly what tipped my hand in voting last Presidential election (it really didn't matter how I voted here since we were an uncontested state). As a highly educated couple, we just cannot tolerate dismissals and worse of the rural/working/serving class and also the urban poor too.   Just no.

Those attitudes bother me as well.  The working class is the back bone of America.   Look around, other than doctors and nurses, almost all other essential workers are working class people....nurses aides, grocery store workers, farmers, truck drivers, warehouse workers, delivery people, food service workers, many teachers and teachers aides, etc.  

I am listening to the audio book Becoming by Michelle Obama right now.  She came from a black, south side Chicago, blue color family.  Her parents are the type of people that are the bacon me of America.

[TravelingChris]

14 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

And, bringing it right back to the topic of the thread....conflicting and confusing information...

I haven't seen anything claiming that the mere act of breathing through the nose is going to produce enough of anything to actually infect someone.  Talking, singing, sure, there's some evidence of that.  But just breathing?   

There is evidence out there.  Specifically the Vo, Italy study where they tested everyone and figured out all contacts.  That is a small city in northern Italy- the hot spot in the country,  Anyway, the study determined that a) asymptomatic people do spread it just as much as symptomatic-----asymptomatic people are not coughing or sneezing--- they are just breathing.  They also determined that your chances of getting Covid increase based on how many or how often the contacts are.  Which makes sense because if it is in the air and you walk by in a store where a person who has Covid just walked by- you have less chance of getting it than if you live or work closely with that same Covid person.

[brehon]

15 hours ago, Plum said:

<snip>

Hospital workers have to get fit tested for the PPE. It's not one size fits all. Those of us making masks ourselves have discovered this first-hand. I posted what they do for that fit-testing on the big thread. It's a lengthy process to ensure there is a good seal. It's also why I don't think the general public (excluding vulnerable demos) really needs to be buying up N95. The chances they will buy one that magically fits them well enough to seal is slim. Realistically, the chances that they will wear it properly the entire time they are out and about, talking to friends and workers is slim. True respirators are uncomfortable, oppressively hot, claustrophobic, and difficult to breathe in.

<snip>

 

12 hours ago, wathe said:

This.  So much this.

I admit to feeling a little ragey inside when I see Joe Public in a badly-fitting or improperly worn n95.  Because I have to wear a surgical mask at the hospital for emergency dept shifts because we don't have enough n95's.  One surgical mask per shift.   The same surgical mask for my entire shift.  Even when caring for known COVID positive patients.  N95's are reserved for aerosol-generating procedures only.

Same here, wathe. Except on my end I have two N95s — without being fit tested...ever — that I have to alternate using each shift. One obviously doesn’t fit me. I had to use that one last shift when I intubated someone. I’ll use it again in two shifts. I’m assured that even though I had to perform an AGP, the mask will be fine because there weren’t any obvious contaminants on it. Meanwhile, it’ll sit in a brown paper sack inside a cardboard box which I labeled Schrödinger.

My boss finally consented to having us fit tested after our DICO pointed out that maybe he should rethink the liability involved if one of the medics suffers a horrible morbidity or even death due to this virus.

The fit testing will happen in two weeks. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by brehon

[TravelingChris]

9 hours ago, Donna said:

I understand your frustration with lack of proper PPE but I know my DH had three n95 masks he had purchased from a home supply store last year in order to work in the crawl space under our home. The mold and mildew he was remediating after hurricane Florence left water in the crawl space worsened his asthma so he needed the masks. When the coronavirus quarantine began, he washed the masks so he could use them when getting groceries and doing food deliveries. There were no other masks available anywhere for purchase and with his asthma and RA, he is high risk should he become infected. 

All that to say, it is possible people had masks for other reasons prior to the outbreak and are using them now. 

 

This was me too.  I bought three masks a few years ago because of my asthma and traveling to an area with wildfires.  One got used up and thrown away,.  One I am sharing currently with my dh.  One we gave to our dd, who is also very high risk.    They had all been used by me previously for asthma at least once.  They were not okay to donate. 

But that is one of the issues.  Not only do health care workers need N95 but so many high risk people, and also all the people doing work that requires filtration like painting, mold removal, sand blasting, etc, etc, etc.  Because it is isn't only N95 masks people can't get but also respirator masks too.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

A private during WWII was paid approximately $700 per month equivalent to today's dollars.  I think the demographics of who was serving the military versus who is unemployed today would be greatly different.  People like dentists, who have school debt, expensive dental equipment to pay for, and a mortgage can't work.  So maintaining the unemployed today would be much more costly.  We were also coming out of a period of underutilized resources during the Great Depression, so you were utilizing resources that had not been fully utilized; now we have resources that were being utilized that are now not being used.  Even so, if you study economic history, you will find that costs involved in fighting WWII were not without severe economic consequences--which led to the 1951 Accord.  

I agree that the economic impact of this will be devastating.  I am curious of why you think it would be harder for people who are out of work to receive help if we are not under lockdown?  What type of insurance policies would a company have to have to be able to collect on the policy if a government mandated lockdown is in existence but not if the company must shut because of lack of business during a pandemic?   

I can give you one example here that’s not insurance related with the Grand Prix.  They delayed till people were literally queuing at the gates before it was finally shut down.  Apparently legally if they are shut down by government order there’s no Legal requirement to refund ticket payments but if they shut it down themselves they legally had to. 

[Bootsie]

20 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I can give you one example here that’s not insurance related with the Grand Prix.  They delayed till people were literally queuing at the gates before it was finally shut down.  Apparently legally if they are shut down by government order there’s no Legal requirement to refund ticket payments but if they shut it down themselves they legally had to. 

This seems to vary from place to place and industry to industry.  If the US government will not allow an airline to fly a route, for example, the airline must offer  a refund on the ticket. 

[Bootsie]

39 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I think this refers more to people who technically can go to work, but are afraid to. If I were living with an elderly relative, I would think twice about working in a restaurant in a state which doesn't have robust testing right now, but if the state had reopened, I'd be pretty much out of luck -- my unemployment would be my own fault. 

This would depend upon how the unemployment situation was classified in the first place.  If my employer laid-off or terminated workers (rather than furloughed me), I could remain unemployed even though the restaurant opened back up.  I have no idea how many people have been furloughed rather than laid-off in the US.  Personally, everyone I know who has been impacted has been laid-off rather than furloughed.  

Even with government lock-downs, we have people who leave with an elderly relative who are going to work.  Given that few employers are going to reopen and have as many employees as before, I have a difficult time believing that there would be so may people who have employers who furloughed them, the employer calls them back to work, and the employee is in a situation like living with an elderly relative that makes the risk of returning to work extremely high to base policy decisions off of those cases.  As we have seen, the federal govt has already stepped in and expanded unemployment benefits beyond what is usually allowed.  Measures could be taken to protect those who are in situations where their employers call them back and they are unable to return.

[PrincessMommy]

10 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

Oh yes, incredibly unpopular on the board.  Virtually every thread I participated in was all about like 1% to 3%.  

I agree that it *should* be possible to discuss those things civilly.  I try very hard to be pretty civil when I discuss these things.  But I absolutely feel like MANY people here feel like if someone has come to a different conclusion than they did, well that person must just not be educated enough, or maybe even that person is just being brainwashed by faux news......aka, only paying attention to right wing media nut cases.  

It very much feels that way to a very large number of posters here and I really hope that many people on this board are really listening to the fact that MANY people on this board, who have stated very similar sentiments over the last month or two....really feel like this.  They really feel that many fellow boardies here have the opinion that unless a person holds the popular opinion.....clearly the person with the unpopular opinion is an idiot who couldn't possibly be reasonable.  

raising my hand!

 

1 hour ago, TravelingChris said:

It really bugs me when I hear such attitudes or see them in action.  My intolerance for this attitude has been growing over the years but came into full blown despisal of this rank elitism during the 2016 election.  In fact, several years later, someone made a nasty remark about those "Trump" rural, ignorant, etc voters in a Sunday School class and I spoke up and said that such attitudes was exactly what tipped my hand in voting last Presidential election (it really didn't matter how I voted here since we were an uncontested state). As a highly educated couple, we just cannot tolerate dismissals and worse of the rural/working/serving class and also the urban poor too.   Just no.

Yes, exactly.  I think that is what bugs me so much about the conversations surrounding the virus. Having grown up in a working class family, who lived inside the Beltway, it really does bristle.  My daughter's boyfriend made an abhorrent comment about "flyover people" in relation to "The Tiger King" and  I was just floored.  I wished I'd thought better on my feet.  

[PrincessMommy]

10 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Close? Greek chorus (Wikipedia): 

. As the Greek theatres were so large, the chorus' actions had to be exaggerated and their voices clear so that everyone could see and hear them. To do this, they used techniques such as synchronization, echo, ripple, physical theatre and the use of masks to aid them

The mask were used to tell the story - not to aid in sound projection.  So there's the "Angry" mask or the "Sad" mask to let the audience know where the story-line was.  Plus, the mouth part was open - so the choir (which didn't sing BTW - it spoke) could talk in unison. 

I kind of wonder about the choir outbreak.  It seems like an outlier.   Have there been other choirs who had similar outbreaks? There are choirs all over the country (mine included) who were meeting up until early/mid March.  I can only speak anecdotally, but in our parish  we have a 30-40 person choir and gather 3-5 people closely around each choir stand.  We're not sitting next to each other holding our own book. And we participate in a common cup for the Eucharist - about 120-150 persons.  No one in my parish has gotten sick from Covid.  No one has even suspected Covid (except those of us who wondered, "Allergies or Covid??").    Like I said, it's anecdotal and no news organization is going to report that we didn't have covid, because it won't sell.  Fear sells.   

[alewife]

9 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

Right, I agree, it's a big problem. But what is your plan? How do we reopen things in a way that actually brings everything back as opposed to making it worse? Which things will be just as impacted if we reopen now? What is your estimate of a chance of a second wave? Does that affect things? 

I understand the economic pain here. What I don't understand is how this is supposed to work. And I'd really prefer to talk about the nitty-gritty of this, as opposed to talk about the many bad things about the economy staying closed, which I think we already agree on. 

I think before we can come up with a plan, the states need to come up with a stated goal.  I am still confused about what the goal is moving forward in my state.  Is policy being set in order to prevent people from catching Covid19 with the hope that a vaccine will be available within the 12-18 month timeframe, or is the policy being set geared towards recognizing that people will get infected, but working to ensure that our hospital systems don't get overwhelmed resulting in not being able  to treat those who are sick?  In my opinion, the economic plan will be vastly different depending on the goal.  

My state is beginning to open up.  During yesterday's press conference, our governor was asked what benchmarks he would use to determine whether we need to tighten restrictions again.  He was unable to answer the question.  I found his lack of an answer disturbing.    I would like to see infectious disease experts guiding my state's public policy through this pandemic, not a director of health who thinks that viruses can multiply on countertops.  

[Ausmumof3]

10 minutes ago, mms said:

Yes, they’ve expanded testing to anyone, even without symptoms, introduced antibody tests and the county health departments have always and will continue to trace contacts. And we have ppe and sanitizer being manufactured in state Though probably could use more ppe like everyone

There’s modelling (from Boston I think) today showing that effective contact tracing and isolating of all known contacts plus some social distancing measures (no mass public gatherings was one) should mean you can reopen without overwhelming health systems.  So it sounds like you are in track.

 

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, mms said:

Oh I know we are. And we have been for at least two weeks. That is why I said our governor has moved too slow. It has caused people to lose trust and start violating the bans. And should we need to close down again I think there will be less compliance.  Which is disconcerting at the very least.

One thing the pm expressed here today was that businesses are saying as much as they want to open they really don’t want a seesaw of constant opening and closing because it’s more expensive and worse for business than waiting slightly longer and staying open.  Maybe that’s why?  
we are having some changes from Monday.  Most likely bigger numbers for funerals and possibly tourism to regional areas.  Playgrounds have opened already.