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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/china/covid-19-chinas-new-outbreak-shows-signs-the-coronavirus-could-be-changing/amp_articleshow/75845298.cms?__twitter_impression=true
 

not sure if source reliability but has anyone else seen anything related?

“BEIJING: Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

 

Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to recover, as defined by a negative nucleic acid test, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.

I have seen this news reported elsewhere but from the same source.  I guess we will learn more in the fullness of time but from what I have read scientists working on therapeutics and vaccines are concluding quite the opposite, that the virus is actually fairly stable.

I must say that I am wondering why China is still imposing large-scale lockdowns.  Surely by this point they have the capacity to test/trace/isolate more narrowly?  

Edited by JennyD
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1 hour ago, JennyD said:

I have seen this news reported elsewhere but from the same source.  I guess we will learn more in the fullness of time but from what I have read scientists working on therapeutics and vaccines are concluding quite the opposite, that the virus is actually fairly stable.

I must say that I am wondering why China is still imposing large-scale lockdowns.  Surely by this point they have the capacity to test/trace/isolate more narrowly?  

Without further evidence I’d assume it’s more likely something to do with the climate, population health or the way cases are being identified rather than the virus itself changing.

it seems like China should be able to trace better than anyone given the apps etc but maybe not everyone has mobile phones in those areas.  I’d say the outbreak is a fair bit bigger than admitted based on the (unverified) footage floating around on YouTube plus the official building of new hospitals etc.  it seems like track and trace is effective for smaller outbreaks but you need the lockdown once it gets too big.

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The ccp are holding that big two sessions thingy so presumably they are feeling fairly confident about covid status in Beijing.

this tweet sounded kind of ominous (not virus related).  I’m assuming this is relating to Hong Kong /Taiwan issues.

Just talked with several lawmakers and policy advisors. Big news to be announced tonight. It will show central government's decisive determination of safeguarding its core interests and won't tolerate secessionist & foreign forces to exploit on #HongKong special status.

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On 5/17/2020 at 11:52 AM, DoraBora said:

Could you point more clearly to the place in these tweets that report Texas Health officials as including antibody tests in the official Covid-test numbers?  They are probably keeping track of antibody tests, but I'm interested in knowing whether they're mixing those with diagnostic tests.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
 

this was run by the Atlantic on Wednesday.  I haven’t checked all the information but reminded me of this discussion.  It sounds like cdc is the ones reporting it mixed up as well as some states.  This fits with the thing the covid tracking project were saying about inconsistencies between data from CDC and states.

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One thing all of this has made me wonder is why there isn’t a global standard in general for how data on testing for current infections, serology testing, confirmed cases, deaths etc are reported.  It’s really hard to get any kind of clear picture when everyone is reporting in different ways.  Is there any kind of protocol that is meant to be followed for this kind of thing?

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17 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/
 

this was run by the Atlantic on Wednesday.  I haven’t checked all the information but reminded me of this discussion.  It sounds like cdc is the ones reporting it mixed up as well as some states.  This fits with the thing the covid tracking project were saying about inconsistencies between data from CDC and states.

Interestingly, in the press conference yesterday Governor Abbott got this question and clearly said Texas is reporting antibody tests and the coronavirus tests separately.

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5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes the thought of having to be completely isolated for that long was kind of freaking me out.  I mean we are social distancing etc but being that sick alone for that long and not knowing if it will end is scary.

One of our patients got pretty depressed after being in isolation for weeks and it was fantastic when he finally tested negative and we could let his wife come in and see him!

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Well this is interesting and good news that tracks with the anecdotes I’ve been hearing around here as well.

Prophylactic HCQ use seems to help cut the rate of infection and severity of it in Mumbai police force

The control group had nine deaths and “Dr Kapote said there was no mortality among the 4,500 policemen who took HCQS in Mumbai. “Although some in this group have contracted Covid, they had a mild attack,” he said.”.

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17 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

Interestingly, in the press conference yesterday Governor Abbott got this question and clearly said Texas is reporting antibody tests and the coronavirus tests separately.

The linked article in Dallas observer mentions this but still claims its not true.  I tried to check by going to the Texas health dashboard. ( https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/3f048ced32804271aafe8b9640bcb4a7 )

  It’s not separated on the mobile version of the site unless the tests listed only include PCR and they just don’t have serology released yet.

it could also be that it’s nothing nefarious just that different labs doing the testing are reporting results in different ways making it hard to separate out properly.  Even with the cdc data I think some are counting number of tests run and some are counting number of people tested where there are more than one test per person run.  So confusing!  
 

I haven’t seen our local testing here separated into testing for active cases versus serology but I think they’ve only just started serology testing so maybe there aren’t many.

Edited by Ausmumof3

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I found this on the Texas site.  If you can read the fine print it says positivity rate excludes antibody testing from 19th May.  So it looks like this was an issue that has been cleaned up as of Tuesday 

it also says on the bottom part below the screen shot something about being unable to de duplicate data from private labs . I’m not sure what’s meant but maybe that relates to where people have had follow up testing or something? 

 

5665BAA8-B9B7-4D34-8FE0-71E0BBA06630.png

Edited by Ausmumof3

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So would previously including antibody testing and now excluding it make positivity rate seem to be lower now or higher now?  I guess that depends on how prevalent antibodies are and how many people who don’t have them are seeking testing?

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Kristen Nordlund, a spokesperson for the CDC, told us that the inclusion of antibody data in Florida is one reason the CDC has reported hundreds of thousands more tests in Florida than the state government has. The agency hopes to separate the viral and antibody test results in the next few weeks, she said in an email.

But until the agency does so, its results will be suspect and difficult to interpret, says William Hanage, an epidemiology professor at Harvard. In addition to misleading the public about the state of affairs, the intermingling “makes the lives of actual epidemiologists tremendously more difficult.”
 

this quote from the article makes me wonder if there’s a link to this and the data science lady from Florida who was mentioned up thread as dismissed?  

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11 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

So would previously including antibody testing and now excluding it make positivity rate seem to be lower now or higher now?  I guess that depends on how prevalent antibodies are and how many people who don’t have them are seeking testing?

I wonder if they tracked whether a person who'd had an antibody test had had an antigen test previously, and whether it had been positive or negative.

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42 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I found this on the Texas site.  If you can read the fine print it says positivity rate excludes antibody testing from 19th May.  So it looks like this was an issue that has been cleaned up as of Tuesday 

it also says on the bottom part below the screen shot something about being unable to de duplicate data from private labs . I’m not sure what’s meant but maybe that relates to where people have had follow up testing or something? 

 

 

The note about de-duplicating data from private labs has been there everytime I've checked.

I have been thinking it means -- sometimes two tests are given to the same person to verify results.  For public labs those are only counted in the count once. But they can't be sure private labs are only counting them once.

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6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes the thought of having to be completely isolated for that long was kind of freaking me out.  I mean we are social distancing etc but being that sick alone for that long and not knowing if it will end is scary.

 

Also, aside maybe from having been able to get a test with only a mild case when most people with non hospital level problems could not, she seems to be having typical difficulty getting good medical help despite working for the state health department. 

I wonder if she has tried any of the home self help approaches some of us are planning on.  And I noticed in a news picture that she has medium brown skin.  I wonder how her vitamin D level is. Zinc level. Etc. 

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5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/china/covid-19-chinas-new-outbreak-shows-signs-the-coronavirus-could-be-changing/amp_articleshow/75845298.cms?__twitter_impression=true
 

not sure if source reliability but has anyone else seen anything related?

“BEIJING: Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

 

Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to recover, as defined by a negative nucleic acid test, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.

I feel like maybe they are just covering. They clearly didn't want to admit how bad it was from the beginning. I mean, isn't it curious that they didn't report one instance of the inflammatory disease in kids? Not one kid in Wuhan had this happen? And the longer-lasting  cases of the virus popping up everywhere else, but China didn't have one case of that until recently? I don't buy it's a new mutation causing it, just like I don't buy that most new cases in China in the last few weeks were from people traveling in from elsewhere.

They are locking down a region of 100 million people now for a few hundred cases? Not likely either.

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

So would previously including antibody testing and now excluding it make positivity rate seem to be lower now or higher now?  I guess that depends on how prevalent antibodies are and how many people who don’t have them are seeking testing?

I don’t know about Texas but the antibody testing is pretty backed up around here for individuals, as employers are trying to do it to establish reopening of offices.

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

So would previously including antibody testing and now excluding it make positivity rate seem to be lower now or higher now?  I guess that depends on how prevalent antibodies are and how many people who don’t have them are seeking testing?

I'm thinking as I type. Assuming the usual level of serology results (less than 5% have antibodies), the state's % positive would have been looking better than reality because the higher % of current positives would have been lowered by the lower antibody levels. The actual # of cases would increase, though. If they are now no longer including them, the number of new cases would look lower, the number of tests performed would be lower, and the % positive would be higher.

I have been unable to find where Texas is reporting serology separately. I did see that at least one governor said their state wasn't combining the results but his staff said they were -- the governor didn't know it. Maybe Virginia?

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On 5/19/2020 at 9:25 PM, Ausmumof3 said:

I have been thinking about various issues with public transport and crowding and social distancing and I’m wondering if a long term solution to this is to move toward more of a two shift scenario.  So for an eight hour day we could have a 6am to 2pm cohort and a 2pm till 10pm cohort.  Even schools could potentially run morning and afternoon shifts although maybe with later start and earlier finish times.  It would also mean peoples free time is distributed more evenly meaning it may work better for cafes shops and even gyms to run with lower staff levels and smaller numbers of customers at one time.

is that kind of thinking realistic?  Or is it really too pie in the sky to think it could work?

Grocery workers locally have two shifts. Morning shift is 7am to 3pm, which is preferred by people with school aged kids. Afternoon shift  ends at 11pm, cashiers would come slightly earlier to take over. 

Schools were two shifts in Singapore before it became single session. Morning session ended by 1pm, afternoon session ended by 6:30pm.

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48 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

Grocery workers locally have two shifts. Morning shift is 7am to 3pm, which is preferred by people with school aged kids. Afternoon shift  ends at 11pm, cashiers would come slightly earlier to take over. 

Schools were two shifts in Singapore before it became single session. Morning session ended by 1pm, afternoon session ended by 6:30pm.

Some countries still do two school sessions, I think Serbia is one where children still go either in the morning or in the afternoon.

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Nearly Half Of The Twitter Accounts Discussing ‘Reopening America’ May Be Bots

To analyze bot activity around the pandemic, CMU researchers since January have collected more than 200 million tweets discussing coronavirus or COVID-19. Of the top 50 influential retweeters, 82% are bots, they found. Of the top 1,000 retweeters, 62% are bots.

 

More than 100 types of inaccurate COVID-19 stories have been identified, such as those about potential cures. But bots are also dominating conversations about ending stay-at-home orders and "reopening America."

Many factors of the online discussions about “reopening America” suggest that bot activity is orchestrated. One indicator is the large number of bots, many of which are accounts that were recently created. Accounts that are possibly humans with bot assistants generate 66% of the tweets. Accounts that are definitely bots generate 34% of the tweets.

A subset of tweets about "reopening America" reference conspiracy theories, such as hospitals being filled with mannequins or the coronavirus being linked to 5G towers.

"Conspiracy theories increase polarization in groups. It’s what many misinformation campaigns aim to do," Carley said. "People have real concerns about health and the economy, and people are preying on that to create divides."

Carley said that spreading conspiracy theories leads to more extreme opinions, which can in turn lead to more extreme behavior and less rational thinking.

"Increased polarization will have a variety of real-world consequences, and play out in things like voting behavior and hostility towards ethnic groups," Carley said.

The research team cannot point to specific entities behind the orchestrated attempts to influence online conversations. "We do know that it looks like it's a propaganda machine, and it definitely matches the Russian and Chinese playbooks, but it would take a tremendous amount of resources to substantiate that," Carley said.

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13 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The ccp are holding that big two sessions thingy so presumably they are feeling fairly confident about covid status in Beijing.

this tweet sounded kind of ominous (not virus related).  I’m assuming this is relating to Hong Kong /Taiwan issues.

Just talked with several lawmakers and policy advisors. Big news to be announced tonight. It will show central government's decisive determination of safeguarding its core interests and won't tolerate secessionist & foreign forces to exploit on #HongKong special status.

Yes, the CCP 两会Two Big Conferences happening means things are really under control. Considering the tracking power they have, second waves won't really be waves, just very small outbreaks here and there. However, even 3 cases may put a place on "highest alert" and strict lockdowns of the immediate surrounding ensue. 

CCP wants full control of Hong Kong. They deem the ruling of Hong Kong's autonomy till 2047 to be not binding anymore 🤷‍♀️. Law is subjective in China. It changes according to whoever has the power, the money, the influence to change it to fit their needs. Just like Xi Jinping changed the law to make himself chairman for life. 

I saw the cluster of cases in Jilin and Heilongjiang today too reported by Bloomberg, WaPo, and Reuters. Longer incubation and longer sick time, Ug! 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/why-a-new-virus-cluster-in-china-is-triggering-alarms/2020/05/21/cfe13dc4-9b47-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html

Edited by JadeOrchidSong
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I saw that Texas is now listing 49k antibody tests on the desktop version of their dashboard.  They list just over 800k total tests. It wasn't super clear if they include the antibody tests in their total number or if they include the antibody positives in their 52k cases.

Wait. If you click further, they are including all types of tests in the 800k. They have 2,114 positive antibody tests out of 49,313 total antibody tests. In small print on their positivity rate graph, it says "Starting May 19th, antibody tests are excluded from the denominator." So, it sounds like they had been including antibody tests in their % positives (and likely all other data) from May 13-18th or so.

PhotoEditor_20200521_221801623.jpg

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Autopsy results study from 7 covid patients lungs

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2015432?query=featured_home

“In our small series, vascular angiogenesis distinguished the pulmonary pathobiology of Covid-19 from that of equally severe influenza virus infection. The universality and clinical implications of our observations require further research to define. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.)”

RESULTS

In patients who died from Covid-19–associated or influenza-associated respiratory failure, the histologic pattern in the peripheral lung was diffuse alveolar damage with perivascular T-cell infiltration. The lungs from patients with Covid-19 also showed distinctive vascular features, consisting of severe endothelial injury associated with the presence of intracellular virus and disrupted cell membranes. Histologic analysis of pulmonary vessels in patients with Covid-19 showed widespread thrombosis with microangiopathy. Alveolar capillary microthrombi were 9 times as prevalent in patients with Covid-19 as in patients with influenza (P<0.001). In lungs from patients with Covid-19, the amount of new vessel growth — predominantly through a mechanism of intussusceptive angiogenesis — was 2.7 times as high as that in the lungs from patients with influenza (P<0.001).

Edited by Ausmumof3
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My doctors office called to schedule me for antibody testing but I have no idea yet which test it will be. They said new testing was starting here next week that would be completely outdoors. I schedule, drive up to tent, have blood drawn there, and leave. So, I like that much better than being in an enclosed space in a lab but I also want it to be a reliable test. I guess I’ll figure out which one it is when I schedule and decide what to do then. I wish there weren’t so many of them and so many unreliable ones!

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Why is it so hard to find a stream of the WH Press Conference that show the slides?! How hard is it really?

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We were able to Zoom with my cousin and her husband today. He is the one who spent 13 days on a vent with Covid. He looks fantastic! It was wonderful to see and talk to him! He is taking part in a study to evaluate the after effects of Covid.

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3 hours ago, TCB said:

We were able to Zoom with my cousin and her husband today. He is the one who spent 13 days on a vent with Covid. He looks fantastic! It was wonderful to see and talk to him! He is taking part in a study to evaluate the after effects of Covid.

 

My uncle is being released from the 'care home' he was discharged to after a week of inpatient care. He was admitted to the hospital on 3/28 and was only released last week. It's a freakin' miracle and we're all SOOOOO stinking excited. He's lost a lot of weight but his sarcastic (family characteristic) humor is intact. LOL.

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5 hours ago, Plum said:

Why is it so hard to find a stream of the WH Press Conference that show the slides?! How hard is it really?

Haven’t been keeping up on the wh press conferences. What slides?

 

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Anyone watching spain at the moment?  They had a week roughly of really low cases and it’s jumped back up today.  They also just posted 688 new deaths when they have been posting under 200 since the start of May.  I’m not sure if it’s some kind of backlog of deaths that have just been proven to be COVID or what?

edited to add I found the answer to my question 

“The high death toll is due to Catalan reporting an additional 632 deaths that had previously occurred.”

Edited by Ausmumof3
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2 hours ago, Terabith said:

Wow!  Apparently Mongolia had a textbook perfect response and has ZERO local transmission, despite relatively high poverty rates, decent sized cities, and being geographically close to China and Russia.  https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/22/trump-slams-governors-demands-they-open-houses-of-worship-right-now.html?fbclid=IwAR1_dXieonHdwudziFADaD973n5mXKWXDqXo924MEJFA82UrB7yENub8FY8

Do you have another link? When I click that one, it goes to a completely different story (no mention of Mongolia).

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1 hour ago, Sneezyone said:

 

My uncle is being released from the 'care home' he was discharged to after a week of inpatient care. He was admitted to the hospital on 3/28 and was only released last week. It's a freakin' miracle and we're all SOOOOO stinking excited. He's lost a lot of weight but his sarcastic (family characteristic) humor is intact. LOL.

That’s wonderful! It’s such a great feeling isn’t it! So thankful they made it through!

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1 minute ago, TCB said:

That’s wonderful! It’s such a great feeling isn’t it! So thankful they made it through!


Absolutely! It was touch n’ go for weeks. When the nurses finally woke him from the induced coma and he laughed at my text I knew the worst was over. His first stop post-discharge...a local burger joint. Lol.

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23 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 

I think getting D levels around optimum makes sense.  Other things too if they can be figured out.

 

Campbell has been afraid to say anything beyond the official NHS status quo.  This Dr Shelton had more guts!!! 

 

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2 hours ago, Pen said:

Haven’t been keeping up on the wh press conferences. What slides?

 

Dr. Brix showed a bunch of slides today showing the trends and surveillance graphs for hot spots and hospitalizations. The WH YouTube stream was the only one where o could see the graphs. It’s not the only time. It seems like there’s usually only one stream that is capable of showing graphs. I got screenshots of some of them. 

90354884-DED7-4B1E-B534-F6C6D1545AEE.png

011A2F4D-7E68-40CC-8C7F-89E1FA861FF3.png

48F9DC96-121F-49BF-9F28-E5555CE49B04.png

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1 hour ago, Plum said:

Dr. Brix showed a bunch of slides today showing the trends and surveillance graphs for hot spots and hospitalizations. The WH YouTube stream was the only one where o could see the graphs. It’s not the only time. It seems like there’s usually only one stream that is capable of showing graphs. I got screenshots of some of them. 

90354884-DED7-4B1E-B534-F6C6D1545AEE.png

011A2F4D-7E68-40CC-8C7F-89E1FA861FF3.png

48F9DC96-121F-49BF-9F28-E5555CE49B04.png

I’m trying to figure out how to interpret that top graph.  Seems like it would be more useful to graph number of visits than percentage?  Also why it it so high for younger people?  Is that because they are less likely to be hospitalised for other causes?

either way it looks like a dramatic drop from second week of April.  How does that relate to when lockdowns kicked in? 

Edited by Ausmumof3

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27 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

WHY was she working symptomatic!

 

 

Good question!  

Disbelief that she had it? 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m trying to figure out how to interpret that top graph.  Seems like it would be more useful to graph number of visits than percentage?  Also why it it so high for younger people?  Is that because they are less likely to be hospitalised for other causes?

either way it looks like a dramatic drop from second week of April.  How does that relate to when lockdowns kicked in? 

I think this is what you were looking for? 
 

946EFE54-B170-4501-A4E1-E27A45E46696.png

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5 minutes ago, Plum said:

I think this is what you were looking for? 
 

946EFE54-B170-4501-A4E1-E27A45E46696.png

Yes although the bottom one is covid specific whereas I think the other was all Influenza like illness.  

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9 hours ago, Terabith said:

Wow!  Apparently Mongolia had a textbook perfect response and has ZERO local transmission, despite relatively high poverty rates, decent sized cities, and being geographically close to China and Russia.  https://medium.com/@indica/covid-underdogs-mongolia-3b0c162427c2

I really enjoyed that link

so so disappointed that Australia didn't do something similar. We had the potential  to eliminate it

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