Jump to content

Menu

wuhan - coronavirus


gardenmom5

Recommended Posts

2 cases in my state today.  Several locations under alert (some requiring testing whether you have symptoms or not others suggesting testing if you have symptoms) including a hotel for three days, a fitness centre, two schools, a juice bar and a carpet shop.

vics figures were in the 400s again today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Panama's deaths started going up 13 days after they stopped HCQ, now is the turn around day, if the same pattern of 13 days that happened in several other countries holds, it should start going down more dramatically around now, cases are fairly stable.  There are several other countries that have followed a 13 day after stop/start of HCQ, here is one well explained for Switzerland in Francesoir: http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychloroquine-works-irrefutable-proof

Correlation is not causation but there have been several countries, at some point you do start to wonder.

1538161401_ScreenShot2020-08-03at9_00_42PM.thumb.png.e70b6e558b0ac72477b6a26861c2fada.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-04/victoria-police-concerned-sovereign-citizens-amid-mask-assault/12522332
 

just so y’all know it’s not only Americans who do crazy stuff when asked about mask wearing.  😬 

 

Did you hear about the git who drove from Melbourne to Wodonga for a Big Mac?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

15 hours ago, MissLemon said:

 

The article doesn't say that the strain is more severe.  It's a strain that has been seen in Ireland and Bangladesh.  

There is some speculation that *some* strains of the virus are more easy to spread because they have more spike proteins.  BUT...having more of the spikes makes it easier for a vaccine to target. More contagious strains do not necessarily equal a more lethal or "dangerous" strain. 

I agree that there is not yet any evidence to support the idea that this strain is more severe. It could be hitting a different population this time - that will obviously make a big difference. Here is the quote from the article that brought the severity to my attention.

However, Marc Choisy, a biomathematician from the Oxford University Clinical Research Unit in Hanoi, told the Associated Press that many of the new cases in Vietnam right now seem worse than prior ones.

"One big difference I've noticed between this wave and the previous one is that the cases we have right now, a lot of them are severe," he said.

  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, square_25 said:

It sounds like someone was saying it was July 13, though? How about for Switzerland?

The order was written on the 13th but was announced on the 21st or 22nd, I've confirmed that. The Switzerland dates are in the article, they actually had pretty low case numbers so it's not that strong on its own, but there are several other countries with the same pattern with larger case numbers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, MissLemon said:

Correlation does not equal causation. And while those deaths are very significant to the families impacted, 6 deaths is not a huge number. 

 

It may be huge in terms of a major change in case fatality rate; similar to a reproduction rate going from less than 2 becoming a reproduction rate of 5 or 6 is huge.  And it may be huge in terms of exponential growth. 

 

What is your explanation?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, square_25 said:

It’s such a small number that it’s hard to know if it’s random. I’d love to see more data from countries with more deaths, though. Also, I need sources for when they stop and start HCQ use.

 

 

Random like pulling colored marbles out of a bag?  

Perhaps so.

 

No deaths came out of the bag for the first 7 months of the pandemic in Vietnam, and your idea is that quite by random chance, that now in the last week there have been 6 deaths,  and 2 more so far today?   Your  idea would be that much like rolling dice, a series of same tosses, maybe even rolling 1000 double sixes or so, becomes statistically  likely the longer one goes on throwing the dice?  So you think that similar to dice rolls or marbles series of deaths would just be random?  

 

 

I do not agree with you in your reduction of medicine to statistics, as you know.   But I cannot prove that it is other than random. 

 

Vietnam has advanced medical care and they were not overwhelmed like parts of Italy or Queens.  SARS2 isn’t even brand new for them any more where they have little idea how to handle cases.

  I see a sudden uptick in deaths as probably significant. Not random. 

 

 VietNam itself may be able to use shutdowns to get control again.  

 

However, if viral strains are becoming more lethal as well as more contagious, imo,  that is bad news. 

Moreover, potentially it is even worse news for places like USA with populations who won’t abide by distancing etc. and are trying to start school again and so forth.  

 

I don’t think medicine is a random statistics game.

I do not believe that doctors are incapable of observation,  nor patients not capable of knowing if they are feeling better or not. 

 

 

Edited by Pen
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, ElizabethB said:

Panama's deaths started going up 13 days after they stopped HCQ, now is the turn around day, if the same pattern of 13 days that happened in several other countries holds, it should start going down more dramatically around now, cases are fairly stable.  There are several other countries that have followed a 13 day after stop/start of HCQ, here is one well explained for Switzerland in Francesoir: http://www.francesoir.fr/societe-sante/covid-19-hydroxychloroquine-works-irrefutable-proof

Correlation is not causation but there have been several countries, at some point you do start to wonder.

1538161401_ScreenShot2020-08-03at9_00_42PM.thumb.png.e70b6e558b0ac72477b6a26861c2fada.png

 

Didn't all these countries stop HCQ because they felt it wasn't working?  Surely it's not political in all those countries the way it is here?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/3/2020 at 9:32 AM, TracyP said:

This is not great news. I find it especially worrisome that they believe this strain is more severe. Considering that they had at least 400 cases and zero deaths with their first round, hopefully a worse strain in their view is more like a normal strain to the rest of us.

Although, I just reread this. I think it is worth noting that it is the media reporting that this strain is more contagious and severe. The Vietnamese health minister said they could not comirm that, which makes this headline very misleading. The change in infection rate is a fact but could be attributed to behavior just as easily as mutation.

From the article:

Long [Vietnam's health minister] said he could not confirm reports in local media that it was more contagious, or more dangerous, than its predecessor.

 

I am confused reading this article,  it states "The latest cases, which were first found July 25, marked the end of a 99-day streak without any new cases."  However there are cases being reported in those previous 99 days in Vietnam on Worldometer.   What explains that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The data for deaths in Switzerland is quite odd, as the deaths that are being attributed to withdrawal of HCQ occurred in two large, separate blips, not in a gradual increase over the period. The authors of the FranceSoir article  have also arbitrarily chosen the first of those blips to be the start date of the period where they claim the effect of HCQ withdrawal is first felt — they are claiming that exactly 13 days after HCQ was withdrawn, suddenly 11 people died after almost no deaths in the preceding 10 days, and that all 11 deaths can be fairly attributed to the withdrawal of HCQ, while the lack of deaths in the previous 10 days is entirely due to the use of HCQ. Neither of those claims seems reasonable to me, and if they had chosen day 14 instead of day 13, so that the first blip in deaths was part of the HCQ cohort, then their "proof" would disappear.

Generally when there are anomalous blips like that in deaths or cases, it's often due to a backlog in recording, not that a large number of people suddenly all died or caught Covid on the same day. For example, if people were looking at the stats for Texas they would see a big increase in deaths right after the state started recording things differently, so there were several days with more than 100 "unassigned deaths" added to the total where they seemed to be catching up on a backlog. Similarly, some states have had sudden large increases in cases when a testing backlog was cleared. If those dates happened to line up with some change in treatment or government policy (new mask requirement, or reopening more businesses or whatever) someone could claim that those bumps in deaths or cases were a direct result of the change, when in fact they would be entirely unrelated.

Here is the graph of Swiss deaths from Worldometer. "Proof" of the authors' theory relies entirely on choosing the blip of 11 deaths that were recorded on June 9th as the exact day that HCQ withdrawal had an effect.

Screen Shot 2020-08-04 at 12.36.54 PM.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 Were any from quarantine facilities, I wonder? 

Initially, NZ was not testing those in quarantine, so we had 23 days of 'no new cases.'  But once we started testing and reporting the cases in quarantine, they changed the headline to '2 new cases in quarantine, and 96 days no community spread.' 

The cases in quarantine do get reported to WHO, so our numbers are going up even though we are 96 days without any cases. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

I’d just like to verify them. Any other sources?

You can Google--I found several other articles, if you don't speak Spanish you can google and translate.  I also asked several Panamanian doctors on Twitter, they confirmed they started using it again after the new announcement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Where's Toto? said:

 

Didn't all these countries stop HCQ because they felt it wasn't working?  Surely it's not political in all those countries the way it is here?

Panama stopped because of the Lancet study, then started again a bit after its retraction. It's evidently also political in Brazil, I haven't really been able to figure out Brazil. Most countries I don't think it's political, especially countries that traditionally use a lot of it.

Edited by ElizabethB
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, square_25 said:

So that's on the 13th they started using it again? Or after the 20-something date? Do you know how many were using it before they were told to stop? I'd really really want more information here. 

What about Switzerland? 

They started using it again on the 21st or 22nd. The Switzerland dates are in the article. There are several other countries or regions within countries that I don't follow closely but other people do that have HCQ start and stop dates that have 13 day lags.  I posted about Panama because it's a future prediction to watch, IMO much stronger evidence that looking at past data and retrofitting it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I know, I just want separate sources for Switzerland. And also, a graph by date of death -- is that what is on Wordometer, or is it by date of report? 

The graph I posted for Panama was worldmeter. I'm not sure where the Switzerland graph came from. You should be able to find English articles for Switzerland if you want another source, or there are also likely German and French articles that can be translated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

My 5 minutes of Googling didn't succeed, but it's entirely possible I was searching for the wrong stuff. I was hoping you had some info handy... let me look. 

I actually didn't think that Switzerland was worth looking into to verify since its case numbers were so small.  Also, Morocco and Algeria apparently had better results right after starting HCQ but  I'm not sure I'd trust their Covid data to be reliable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

I am confused reading this article,  it states "The latest cases, which were first found July 25, marked the end of a 99-day streak without any new cases."  However there are cases being reported in those previous 99 days in Vietnam on Worldometer.   What explains that?

Huh, I don't know. I think the idea that the cases came from quarantine seems likely.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, TracyP said:

Huh, I don't know. I think the idea that the cases came from quarantine seems likely.

I have found some other articles that state that Vietnam had gone 99 days "without local transmission."  So, apparently they had cases, but not cases that we locally transmitted.  Apparently there has been an outbreak in a hospital of people who were receiving treatment for other health conditions.  If early cases were young people who had been traveling and the more recent cases are older people with chronic health issues, it isn't surprising that they are seeing deaths within that population when they did not see any deaths with the first few cases.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Pen said:

 

It may be huge in terms of a major change in case fatality rate; similar to a reproduction rate going from less than 2 becoming a reproduction rate of 5 or 6 is huge.  And it may be huge in terms of exponential growth. 

 

What is your explanation?

 

 

 

My explanation is that 6 people is too small a sample size to come to a conclusion. I'd have to know more about those particular patients to see if there are any commonalities that could explain what happened. Did they wear masks? Were they occupationally exposed? Co-morbidities? Treatment protocols? Access to medical care? 

I'm not a medical doctor, and neither are you.  It seems premature to jump to the conclusion that 6-8 deaths means "more lethal" in the absence of other supporting data. What's your proof that this necessarily means the strain of the virus (that has already been seen in other countries) has mutated to a more lethal strain? 

Edited by MissLemon
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

You might want to take a look at the graph of deaths by date 😉 . I posted it above. 

ETA: at least I did for Switzerland. I didn't check the other countries, since the Swiss effect is nonexistent. 

 

Ha, I was confused for a minute when I looked at that graph for Switzerland.  I was talking about Vietnam but looking at Switzerland, and then thought "Wait a minute...is French widely spoken in Vietnam? Is that Vietnam? Have I forgotten what Vietnam looks like?!" Ahaha..

And after some googling, yes, French is spoken in Vietnam, along with Vietnamese, Khmer, English, and Chinese. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

725 cases for Vic today expected.

I ended up going to my scheduled dental check up and clean, thinking now might be better than in six months depending how things go down here.  I forgot about the glasses so kept thinking about the eye membrane transmission thing.  So if anyone’s got to do dental make sure you take your own sunnies!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

725 cases for Vic today expected.

I ended up going to my scheduled dental check up and clean, thinking now might be better than in six months depending how things go down here.  I forgot about the glasses so kept thinking about the eye membrane transmission thing.  So if anyone’s got to do dental make sure you take your own sunnies!

15 deaths, youngest in early 30s

  • Sad 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

According to news from Wuhan Tongji Hospital, Jinyintan Hospital once again asked Tongji for help. The new case showed that the virus had mutated and became more infectious. It warned friends in Wuhan and those in Hubei Province to avoid going out or gathering in the past two weeks. Personal friendly reminder! 

 Just got some news in 
 

this is from a Twitter guy in Wuhan.  Run through google translate so not sure on the accuracy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting new testing procedure for people who arrive in hospital, using a Black Box procedure to test for Covid and flu at triage stage, with results within an hour.  Podcast also discusses long-term Covid:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000lg48

Here's the public site for long-term recovery; there will be a private area into which you will be referred too

https://www.yourcovidrecovery.nhs.uk/

Edited by Laura Corin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Even a less accurate one would actually make a huge difference.

Only if they can get retested again easily. I don't want people getting tested, thinking they are negative, and going out and spreading it. Longer results suck but at least people are told to isolate at home until they get results. If they already have results that are negative, they won't do that for sure. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Only if they can get retested again easily. I don't want people getting tested, thinking they are negative, and going out and spreading it. Longer results suck but at least people are told to isolate at home until they get results. If they already have results that are negative, they won't do that for sure. 

The particular test they are talking about in the podcast is suggested for use in hospital (in the UK) - it's more expensive than standard tests but that will be worthwhile in order to be able to separate flu and Covid patients in hospital as winter hits and the hospitals start to creak.  So not so much of a quarantine issue for now.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Does anyone here have Emergency Use Authorization expertise or knowledge?

Someone said that an issue with HCQ and Ivermectin in USA is that only one drug is allowed to have an EUA for a particular illness at any time.

I thought that HCQ and Remdesivir had overlapping EUAs (from May or so when Remdesivir got its EUAto June or so when HCQ lost its EUA) so that that could not be true.

But this other person thought that as the regulations are worded only one at a time is allowed. And that HCQ has to be removed in part to allow Remdesivir to be on.  

If true, it seems unreasonable to me that in a pandemic only one new drug or new use for an old drug is allowed at a time.  (OTOH it might explain a lot. )

Edited by Pen
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Does anyone here have Emergency Use Authorization expertise or knowledge?

Someone said that an issue with HCQ and Ivermectin in USA is that only one drug is allowed to have an EUA for a particular illness at any time.

I thought that HCQ and Remdesivir had overlapping EUAs (from May or so when Remdesivir got its EUAto June or so when HCQ lost its EUA) so that that could not be true.

But this other person thought that as the regulations are worded only one at a time is allowed. And that HCQ has to be removed in part to allow Remdesivir to be on.  

If true, it seems unreasonable to me that in a pandemic only one new drug or new use for an old drug is allowed at a time.  (OTOH it might explain a lot. )

Your doctor should be able to prescribe any existing medication off label, that doesn't need a new regulation or authorization. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, ElizabethB said:

If this is true, we need to hunt down the regular cold and have "corona pox parties!"

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-08-exposure-common-cold-coronaviruses-immune.html

I don't really understand this because other than very small children aren't people around the world already well-exposed to the common cold?  Including the elderly who are so terribly vulnerable to this new virus? 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Jean in Newcastle said:

I don't really understand this because other than very small children aren't people around the world already well-exposed to the common cold?  Including the elderly who are so terribly vulnerable to this new virus? 

Yeah, you'd think the older population would be more protected than the younger, rather than the other way round, if liberal lifetime exposure to other coronaviruses was an important factor...

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

I think if you model this, it’s still worthwhile, because practically speaking people who don’t get a result for a week don’t quarantine either. 
 

I think this is basically a quantitative thing. You can calculate which one results in better compliance under certain assumptions and then you can decide the right protocol.

Also, contact tracing generally will not begin while waiting for results.  Getting many of the cases quickly and doing contact tracing could well do more for preventing spread than getting a larger number of cases correctly diagnosed but after a time period in which contact tracing is not longer helpful.   

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ElizabethB said:

Your doctor should be able to prescribe any existing medication off label, that doesn't need a new regulation or authorization. 

 

In theory.  

 

Not currently in my state.

 

But I want to know about the EAU rules. 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I don't really understand this because other than very small children aren't people around the world already well-exposed to the common cold?  Including the elderly who are so terribly vulnerable to this new virus? 

I think with Coronaviruses you need immunity within a few years, it wears off.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, square_25 said:

There are many common colds. And perhaps immunity only lasts a few years?

This makes sense. Some colds are caused by coronaviruses but most are caused by other types of viruses.

I have hoped we would get some crossover immunity, with seven kids in the family I feel like we catch every single bug that goes around so surely we've had a coronavirus or two in recent years.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, maize said:

This makes sense. Some colds are caused by coronaviruses but most are caused by other types of viruses.

I have hoped we would get some crossover immunity, with seven kids in the family I feel like we catch every single bug that goes around so surely we've had a coronavirus or two in recent years.

 

Latest Been video touches on crossover immunity ...   

 

 

just below the cutoff of above drawing— on the children side is that young children (not infants) have better cross reactive immunity 

 

 

Also, the following two videos have some more related to cross immunity — both are a couple of months old, which in SARS2 time is 

a long time with much more known now

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Pen
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...