Jump to content

Menu

wuhan - coronavirus


gardenmom5

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

It's hard to say, since something's funny going on with their testing numbers. It's not perfectly predictive like that. 

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texass-record-high-covid-positivity-rate-falls-after-data-experts-investigate/287-ffc19167-0d47-4be9-8c06-8648229288ef?fbclid=IwAR18UqKmsGgKyGGApgZWWWUM2LOmKvCYr0JBFfUtCa7uFfon25I7lxANQGs

 

I agree -- I've felt the steep rise didn't look right. Especially compared to what I'm seeing on the ground.

And here's an explanation.  (And yes, if fewer people are getting tested because of the long lag in getting tests back--or because they announced (as they did) that only those with symptoms can be tested-- that is also going to lead to a slightly higher positivity rate)

Edited by vonfirmath
Link to comment
Share on other sites

More detail from the German study. This stuff scares the heck out of me. DS has been getting emails from the Athletic Dept at his school, as well as from his coach and the USOC, urging athletes who have had Covid to not return to training without medical supervision due to the potential for heart problems. People who dismiss CV19 because it has a "99% survival rate" or it "only kills old people," are not understanding the potential complications. ☹️

... Our findings demonstrate that participants with a relative paucity of preexisting cardiovascular condition and with mostly home-based recovery had frequent cardiac inflammatory involvement, which was similar to the hospitalized subgroup with regards to severity and extent. Our observations are concordant with early case reports in hospitalized patients showing a frequent presence of LGE,3,25 diffuse inflammatory involvement,10,26 and significant rise of troponin T levels.4 Unlike these previous studies, our findings reveal that significant cardiac involvement occurs independently of the severity of original presentation and persists beyond the period of acute presentation, with no significant trend toward reduction of imaging or serological findings during the recovery period. Our findings may provide an indication of potentially considerable burden of inflammatory disease in large and growing parts of the population and urgently require confirmation in a larger cohort. Although the long-term health effects of these findings cannot yet be determined, several of the abnormalities described have been previously related to worse outcome in inflammatory cardiomyopathies.27-29 Most imaging findings point toward ongoing perimyocarditis after COVID-19 infection. This is further confirmed by the cross-correlation between the T1 and T2 measures and hsTnT as well as histological verification of inflammatory changes in more severe cases.

  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

More detail from the German study. This stuff scares the heck out of me. DS has been getting emails from the Athletic Dept at his school, as well as from his coach and the USOC, urging athletes who have had Covid to not return to training without medical supervision due to the potential for heart problems. People who dismiss CV19 because it has a "99% survival rate" or it "only kills old people," are not understanding the potential complications. ☹️

 

 

Hmmm, my MIL had shortness of breath for a couple months, treated only by telehealth because she experienced worsening asthma symptoms around the same time last year, and her doctor concluded it was environmental. I wondered about Covid and dh strongly encouraged her to talk with her doctor about getting tested, but she never did. She did have a pulse oximeter we sent her, but tends to be a minimizer, and I can guarantee she would underreport her own symptoms.

Then, a couple months after her initial symptoms, she went to the ER and was admitted to the ICU with a diagnosis of stress cardiomyopathy, or Takotsubo cardiomyopathy. They still didn't test her for Covid. FIL said they ruled it out via chest x-ray, but I still wonder if she had Covid and her lungs had recovered enough not to show the classic ground glass presentation.

It has bugged me all along that she had classic Covid symptoms and wasn't seen until she had to go to the ER/ICU, and once there they still didn't test her. My medical knowledge isn't sufficient to understand if there's any connection between Covid heart effects and stress cardiomyopathy, but I still wonder why her doctors concluded she didn't have Covid without testing her. 

  • Sad 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Acadie said:

 

Hmmm, my MIL had shortness of breath for a couple months, treated only by telehealth because she experienced worsening asthma symptoms around the same time last year, and her doctor concluded it was environmental. I wondered about Covid and dh strongly encouraged her to talk with her doctor about getting tested, but she never did. She did have a pulse oximeter we sent her, but tends to be a minimizer, and I can guarantee she would underreport her own symptoms.

Then, a couple months after her initial symptoms, she went to the ER and was admitted to the ICU with a diagnosis of stress cardiomyopathy, or Takotsubo cardiomyopathy. They still didn't test her for Covid. FIL said they ruled it out via chest x-ray, but I still wonder if she had Covid and her lungs had recovered enough not to show the classic ground glass presentation.

It has bugged me all along that she had classic Covid symptoms and wasn't seen until she had to go to the ER/ICU, and once there they still didn't test her. My medical knowledge isn't sufficient to understand if there's any connection between Covid heart effects and stress cardiomyopathy, but I still wonder why her doctors concluded she didn't have Covid without testing her. 

 

Or perhaps she never had lung involvement, but had later cardiomyopathy?  Idk, but the German study makes it seem that would be potentially possible. 🤷‍♀️

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 hours ago, BeachGal said:

Some African countries are using ozone. Italy has been sending over medical-grade ozone generators but some places have them already because they are used to treat Ebola.

More info about ozone autohemotherapy and IV vitamin C to treat Covid:

https://www.clinicaloncology.com/COVID19/Article/07-20/Two-Synergistic-Adjuvant-Therapies-Help-Fight-COVID19/58703

 

The coagulation parameters that the quote above mentions are d-dimer and ferritin levels.

*******

HIV antivirals might also help prevent severe cases of Covid.

 

Very interesting!

But it doesn’t seem to explain why Subsaharan Africa other than SA is doing remarkably well since Ozone therapy seems to be available in SA. 

The maps of regions doing better with CV19 overlap with

1) lesser D deficiency 

2) more malaria (more malaria medicines including the chloroquine types)

3) more river blindness (more prophylaxis for that) 

4) 🤷‍♀️ possibly higher natural soil selenium and zinc pockets in some areas, but hard to equate the higher mineral pockets with lower incidence of severe SARS2.  (in China, I read that there was some correlation of less severe CV19 in areas with high soil useful minerals) 

5) embrace of mask wearing as able to do it / afford it (apparently to extent info on that I could find from news etc sources)

 

6) other ______ 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

good cheap saliva tests approved for the US.  This seems like a good thing.

That is really good news. This is the test developed by Yale and funded by the NBA, and intended to be cheap and easily accessible (~$10). Slavitt says it is also the most accurate of the salvia tests so far.   

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Very interesting!

But it doesn’t seem to explain why Subsaharan Africa other than SA is doing remarkably well since Ozone therapy seems to be available in SA. 

The maps of regions doing better with CV19 overlap with

1) lesser D deficiency 

2) more malaria (more malaria medicines including the chloroquine types)

3) more river blindness (more prophylaxis for that) 

4) 🤷‍♀️ possibly higher natural soil selenium and zinc pockets in some areas, but hard to equate the higher mineral pockets with lower incidence of severe SARS2.  (in China, I read that there was some correlation of less severe CV19 in areas with high soil useful minerals) 

5) embrace of mask wearing as able to do it / afford it (apparently to extent info on that I could find from news etc sources)

 

6) other ______ 

 

 

 

Ozone therapy is not widely available in many South American countries to my knowledge. Cuba uses it quite a bit, though.

Some countries in Africa began using it maybe a decade ago to treat Ebola. I think it’s been around longer there than South America. There are probably other factors that determine how sick a Covid-infected person gets, too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

 

Ozone therapy is not widely available in many South American countries to my knowledge. Cuba uses it quite a bit, though.

Some countries in Africa began using it maybe a decade ago to treat Ebola. I think it’s been around longer there than South America. There are probably other factors that determine how sick a Covid-infected person gets, too.

 

“SA” confusion.  I meant country of South Africa, not South America or I guess South Australia also is an SA!

 

  The rest of Subsaharan Africa is doing remarkably well. South Africa is doing badly. 

South Africa seems to have ozone therapy so that doesn’t seem to be key difference between it and, say, Kenya. 

 

Edited by Pen
And Saudi Arabia ...
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

“SA” confusion.  I meant country of South Africa, not South America or I guess South Australia also is an SA!

 

  The rest of Subsaharan Africa is doing remarkably well. South Africa is doing badly. 

South Africa seems to have ozone therapy so that doesn’t seem to be key difference between it and, say, Kenya. 

 

 

Aha. Okay. I haven’t read much about what the different countries in Africa are doing. Italy has been sending ozone generators to some places, though. And others already have ozone generators.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are up to 65,000 tests within 4 days of the first case testing positive, almost all done for Auckland residents. We had gotten down to only 1000 tests per day throughout the country. So this 4 day effort was heroic. Seriously heroic. The ramp up was amazing and swift.  Clearly they had a plan and implemented it close to flawlessly. 

All 51 cases have a single genomic source - all linked back to Americold.  It actually looks like the first person to test positive was the index case, which is both quite lucky and quite remarkable that it was caught.  NZ has almost ruled out a quarantine breach, and is now working with Australia as 2 people in their Americold facility in Victoria have also tested positive. Australia is genome testing these 2 people to see if it is a link. If so, it will be the first proven evidence of cold surface transmission. If this comes to be the working theory, proven or no, it will take the government off the hook for a botch up, because there has been no believable evidence that cold surfaces are infectious after multiple days, so they could not have protected NZ against an unknown transmission method. 

The government seems to think that this cluster will be conquered in 2 weeks, as the cluster has been ring fenced by contract tracing 1000 people from the original family of 4, and an entire 2 week cycle of transmission will have passed with the entire city in lockdown (including closed schools). It looks like our elimination status may be renewed on 27 August. Crossing fingers

Edited by lewelma
  • Like 17
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, lewelma said:

We are up to 65,000 tests within 4 days of the first case testing positive, almost all done for Auckland residents. We had gotten down to only 1000 tests per day throughout the country. So this 4 day effort was heroic. Seriously heroic. The ramp up was amazing and swift.  Clearly they had a plan and implemented it close to flawlessly. 

All 51 cases have a single genomic source - all linked back to Americold.  It actually looks like the first person to test positive was the index case, which is both quite lucky and quite remarkable that it was caught.  NZ has almost ruled out a quarantine breach, and is now working with Australia as 2 people in their Americold facility in Victoria have also tested positive. Australia is genome testing these 2 people to see if it is a link. If so, it will be the first proven evidence of cold surface transmission. If this comes to be the working theory, proven or no, it will take the government off the hook for a botch up, because there has been no believable evidence that cold surfaces are infectious after multiple days, so they could not have protected NZ against an unknown transmission method. 

The government seems to think that this cluster will be conquered in 2 weeks, as the cluster has been ring fenced by contract tracing 1000 people from the original family of 4, and an entire 2 week cycle of transmission will have passed with the entire city in lockdown (including closed schools). It looks like our elimination status may be renewed on 27 August. Crossing fingers

And I’m back to disinfecting cold goods that come in!  Plenty comes here from Vic.

in a way though it’s probably a good outcome for NZ.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And I’m back to disinfecting cold goods that come in!  Plenty comes here from Vic.

in a way though it’s probably a good outcome for NZ.

What is interesting about the elimination strategy, is that we worked super hard to eliminate and then work super hard to keep it out.  But our Chief Health Officer has always said that elimination is an ongoing effort.  And that is exactly what has happened here.  We got a new case, it spread to 50 others before we found it.  We knocked it on its head and plan to be back at elimination status within 2 weeks.  Basically, the government is saying that now that we are at elimination, we need to keep it even with an occasional short sharp local lockdown.  That it is the best option for our economy.   

Edited by lewelma
  • Like 10
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Corraleno said:

More detail from the German study. This stuff scares the heck out of me. DS has been getting emails from the Athletic Dept at his school, as well as from his coach and the USOC, urging athletes who have had Covid to not return to training without medical supervision due to the potential for heart problems. People who dismiss CV19 because it has a "99% survival rate" or it "only kills old people," are not understanding the potential complications. ☹️

... Our findings demonstrate that participants with a relative paucity of preexisting cardiovascular condition and with mostly home-based recovery had frequent cardiac inflammatory involvement, which was similar to the hospitalized subgroup with regards to severity and extent. Our observations are concordant with early case reports in hospitalized patients showing a frequent presence of LGE,3,25 diffuse inflammatory involvement,10,26 and significant rise of troponin T levels.4 Unlike these previous studies, our findings reveal that significant cardiac involvement occurs independently of the severity of original presentation and persists beyond the period of acute presentation, with no significant trend toward reduction of imaging or serological findings during the recovery period. Our findings may provide an indication of potentially considerable burden of inflammatory disease in large and growing parts of the population and urgently require confirmation in a larger cohort. Although the long-term health effects of these findings cannot yet be determined, several of the abnormalities described have been previously related to worse outcome in inflammatory cardiomyopathies.27-29 Most imaging findings point toward ongoing perimyocarditis after COVID-19 infection. This is further confirmed by the cross-correlation between the T1 and T2 measures and hsTnT as well as histological verification of inflammatory changes in more severe cases.

 

This sort of information, and I've seen a variety of similar concerning studies about lungs and brain, brings so much uncertainty and makes it difficult to assess risk. 

But it occurred to me last night--I wonder, if we did similar tests and studies on people post other viral diseases, would we find similar outcomes. I quickly googled influenza and, indeed, there is evidence of myocarditis and cardiac involvement complications for influenza as well. I've no clue if that happens similarly in  78% post influenza. That feels scary high to me. But I wish I could somehow get context for these findings. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I read through the Twitter thread and some of the rest of Dr. Hyde's feed with interest. My 19 yr old dd was very sick for about 6 days just over a week ago. Her pediatrician thought it was COVID19 and had me get her tested. CBC results indicated it was viral. It took 6 days to get results--negative. Her symptoms were headache, nausea--very miserable at times, and terrible night sweats--like change clothes and put down a towel to get back to sleep. She never had fever. The pediatrician said COVID is presenting like this in some kids. Thoughts? Is there another COVID thread I should check out on the forum that might be more specific to this? I mean about testing and false negatives. I'm looking for more info on that. 

Honestly, I'm still kinda worried about dd. She my only kid that has had random swollen lymph nodes every once in awhile (not uncommon in teens), so when she starts having night sweats...I get anxious. She's fine now, but I'm certainly keeping an eye on her health.

Edited by popmom
  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, popmom said:

I read through the Twitter thread and some of the rest of Dr. Hyde's feed with interest. My 19 yr old dd was very sick for about 6 days just over a week ago. Her pediatrician thought it was COVID19 and had me get her tested. CBC results indicated it was viral. It took 6 days to get results--negative. Her symptoms were headache, nausea--very miserable at times, and terrible night sweats--like change clothes and put down a towel to get back to sleep. She never had fever. The pediatrician said COVID is presenting like this in some kids. Thoughts? Is there another COVID thread I should check out on the forum that might be more specific to this? I mean about testing and false negatives. I'm looking for more info on that. 

Honestly, I'm still kinda worried about dd. She my only kid that has had random swollen lymph nodes every once in awhile (not uncommon in teens), so when she starts having night sweats...I get anxious. She's fine now, but I'm certainly keeping an eye on her health.

 

I don’t think there’s a better thread. You could start one, but littler threads seem to get lost and abandoned more than this big one.

 

Did she lose sense of smell or taste?  That currently seems possibly more telling than fever. 

 

Early on when some first  cases had more testing, there were positive days and negative and sometimes positive stool but negative nasal swab iirc.

Upthread not long ago, maybe a page or two back, I also put a copy of testing results for test results done over 7 days on ~ 30 patients who were having some different therapies (or none), but where it seems clear that it would be possible to get negative one day and positive the next for some patients— so if only one test were done results would be less clear whether some people had CV19 or not. 

There May be predominantly gastrointestinal cases that don’t have a lot of nasal shedding. Idk. 

I think what might be a good question to ask yourself is what else might she likely have encountered at this time in her circumstances ? For example, a tick borne disease? Something from food — like related to the onions, citrus,  etc recalls?  A fungal infection?

 And if there’s some other thing that could be likely is there any action you should take? 

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's an article in today's WP discussing the issue of post-viral complications. Most relevant section pasted below:

We’re focusing too much on fatality rates and not enough on the people who don’t die, but don’t entirely recover, either. Anecdotal reports of these people abound. At least seven elite college athletes have developed myocarditis, an inflammation of the heart muscle that can have severe consequences, including sudden death. An Austrian doctor who treats scuba divers reported that six patients, who had only mild covid-19 infections, seem to have significant and permanent lung damage. Social media communities sprang up of people who are still suffering, months after they were infected, with everything from chronic fatigue and “brain fog” to chest pain and recurrent fevers.

Now, data is coming in behind the anecdotes, and while it’s preliminary, it’s also “concerning,” says Clyde Yancy, chief of cardiology at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine. A recent study from Germany followed up with 100 recovered patients, two-thirds of whom were never sick enough to be hospitalized. Seventy-eight showed signs of cardiac involvement, and MRIs indicated that 60 of them had ongoing cardiac inflammation, even though it had been at least two months since their diagnosis.

If these results turned out to be representative, they would utterly change the way we think about covid-19: not as a disease that kills a tiny percentage of patients, mostly the elderly or the obese, the hypertensive or diabetic, but one that attacks the heart in most of the people who get it, even if they don’t feel very sick. And maybe their lungs, kidneys or brains, too.

It’s too early to say what the long-term prognosis of those attacks would be; with other viruses that infect the heart, most acute, symptomatic myocarditis cases eventually resolve without long-term clinical complications. Though Leslie Cooper, a cardiologist at the Mayo Clinic, estimates that 20 to 30 percent of patients who experience acute viral myocarditis end up with some sort of long-term heart disease including recurrent chest pain or shortness of breath, which can be progressive and debilitating. When I asked whether the risk of long-term disability from covid-19 could potentially end up being greater than the risk of death, Cooper said: “Yes, absolutely.”

Those patients would, on average, be much younger than the ones who are dying; the median age in the German study was 49. These are patients with many years of life to lose, either to disability or early death. And there are disturbing findings from much younger patients; a study of 186 children who had MIS-C, the (thankfully rare) inflammatory syndrome that can occur with pediatric covid-19, showed 15 had developed aneurysms of the coronary artery.

But you can’t generalize from such small studies, especially since covid-19 is rapidly becoming the most-studied disease in human history; if we regularly put patients with other viral infections through cardiac MRIs, what might their hearts look like a few months in?

We desperately need larger, more comprehensive studies, and, thankfully, they’re in the works — one of the largest and the best will follow 10,000 British patients. But these take time to set up, and as genetic epidemiologist Louise Wain, a researcher on the British study, told me ruefully, “No one warned us a year ago that we were going to have a pandemic.” She hopes to have the 1,000th patient enrolled by September, which is amazingly fast, but still not quick enough for policymakers and individuals who have to decide whether to leave our hermitages.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3
  • Sad 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I don’t think there’s a better thread. You could start one, but littler threads seem to get lost and abandoned more than this big one.

 

Did she lose sense of smell or taste?  That currently seems possibly more telling than fever. 

 

Early on when some first  cases had more testing, there were positive days and negative and sometimes positive stool but negative nasal swab iirc.

Upthread not long ago, maybe a page or two back, I also put a copy of testing results for test results done over 7 days on ~ 30 patients who were having some different therapies (or none), but where it seems clear that it would be possible to get negative one day and positive the next for some patients— so if only one test were done results would be less clear whether some people had CV19 or not. 

There May be predominantly gastrointestinal cases that don’t have a lot of nasal shedding. Idk. 

I think what might be a good question to ask yourself is what else might she likely have encountered at this time in her circumstances ? For example, a tick borne disease? Something from food — like related to the onions, citrus,  etc recalls?  A fungal infection?

 And if there’s some other thing that could be likely is there any action you should take? 

 

 

I don't see a reason to take any further action unless her symptoms return. I can pretty well rule out tick borne disease. Too hot to spend any time outdoors. I double checked the recall, and I don't think any of my produce is affected. I would like to have confidence in the accuracy of the testing--especially considering the above post about heart damage. I am having a bit of an asthma flare in spite of using my Pulmicort religiously. I should probably get tested. 

I will start researching antibody testing, I guess. Although from what I'm reading, that's even more of a crapshoot.

ETA she did not lose smell or taste, but another daughter awhile back DID lose her sense of taste completely for about 24 hours and ran fever, etc. and she also tested negative. She had 2 rapid tests done on different days. absolutely completely lost her taste. It's baffling. 

Edited by popmom
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's an article if anyone is interested --from Aug 6. A couple of highlights: 

."Two studies from Wuhan, China, arouse concern about false negative RT-PCR tests in patients with apparent Covid-19 illness. In a preprint, Yang et al. described 213 patients hospitalized with Covid-19, of whom 37 were critically ill.2 They collected 205 throat swabs, 490 nasal swabs, and 142 sputum samples (median, 3 per patient) and used an RT-PCR test approved by the Chinese regulator. In days 1 through 7 after onset of illness, 11% of sputum, 27% of nasal, and 40% of throat samples were deemed falsely negative."

"But sensitivity for many available tests appears to be substantially lower: the studies cited above suggest that 70% is probably a reasonable estimate. At this sensitivity level, with a pretest probability of 50%, the post-test probability with a negative test would be 23% — far too high to safely assume someone is uninfected."

"Third, measuring test sensitivity in asymptomatic people is an urgent priority. It will also be important to develop methods (e.g., prediction rules) for estimating the pretest probability of infection (for asymptomatic and symptomatic people) to allow calculation of post-test probabilities after positive or negative results. Fourth, negative results even on a highly sensitive test cannot rule out infection if the pretest probability is high, so clinicians should not trust unexpected negative results (i.e., assume a negative result is a “false negative” in a person with typical symptoms and known exposure). It’s possible that performing several simultaneous or repeated tests could overcome an individual test’s limited sensitivity; however, such strategies need validation."

This...the above quote is not happening in my personal experience. Especially with the daughter who lost her sense of taste. The doctors seem to be taking the test results as gospel truth.

Edited by popmom
  • Like 2
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, popmom said:

I don't see a reason to take any further action unless her symptoms return. I can pretty well rule out tick borne disease. Too hot to spend any time outdoors. I double checked the recall, and I don't think any of my produce is affected. I would like to have confidence in the accuracy of the testing--especially considering the above post about heart damage. I am having a bit of an asthma flare in spite of using my Pulmicort religiously. I should probably get tested. 

I will start researching antibody testing, I guess. Although from what I'm reading, that's even more of a crapshoot.

ETA she did not lose smell or taste, but another daughter awhile back DID lose her sense of taste completely for about 24 hours and ran fever, etc. and she also tested negative. She had 2 rapid tests done on different days. absolutely completely lost her taste. It's baffling. 

You could possibly also joinZoe to be able to add your family situation to the database of knowledge... might eventually help make things less baffling. 

Did the daughter who did lose smell sense have any possible CV19 exposure?

Maybe the one daughter got it fairly mild, then the other daughter had it almost Asymptomatic until later stage GI symptoms, and neither with enough viral shed for a positive test result.   Night sweats do seem to be pretty common with it. Maybe you missed presence of fever because the sweats brought down body temperature naturally. 

This the sample testing grid again- the top 4 lines were children, basically untreated .  The very top child seems to go negative on D1 and stays that way.  So if your kids were like that one, any day after Day 0 would have showed negative. And the next 3 (all kids) are mixed in results around Day 4 to 6 and who knows what they would have been if test were done and recorded on Day 7.  For most of us testing probably doesn’t happen on some ideal day to catch the positive rather than the negative. 

 

 

D2A56897-49FA-4E37-99D6-A0C999B2E913.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Pen said:

You could possibly also joinZoe to be able to add your family situation to the database of knowledge... might eventually help make things less baffling. 

Did the daughter who did lose smell sense have any possible CV19 exposure?

 

 

 

 

This was back in June before the mask mandate. She was still living in her hotspot college town, and not being particularly careful. Hanging out with friends, not masking in public, etc. 😕 She does have friends who have tested positive, but I'm not sure how much exposure to them she had preceding this particular illness. 

Thanks for sharing the chart again. I will look at joining that database. thanks

Edited by popmom
  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, BeachGal said:

 

Aha. Okay. I haven’t read much about what the different countries in Africa are doing. Italy has been sending ozone generators to some places, though. And others already have ozone generators.

 

My comments had started based on a John Campbell youtube video review of the situation in Subsaharan Africa . The video might have given them context and made the reference to SA as South Africa more clear. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One more observation and I'll shut up about this. Another daughter (I have 4) started grad school last week at the same university. She went recently for her required COVID test. It was a nasal swab but not the "brain swab". The nurse asked her if she could have been exposed. Dd tells the nurse that yes--her sister is waiting on test results. The nurse said, "Oh, well you should probably go get a REAL test somewhere else." 🤦‍♀️ I was so angry I emailed my congressman. Why in the world are all these schools wasting all this money if the tests aren't accurate? They care more about covering their rears than public health, I guess. Or maybe this is the best they can do idk. But if this is the best, we have a long row to hoe.

  • Sad 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, popmom said:

I don't see a reason to take any further action unless her symptoms return. I can pretty well rule out tick borne disease. Too hot to spend any time outdoors. I double checked the recall, and I don't think any of my produce is affected. I would like to have confidence in the accuracy of the testing--especially considering the above post about heart damage. I am having a bit of an asthma flare in spite of using my Pulmicort religiously. I should probably get tested. 

I will start researching antibody testing, I guess. Although from what I'm reading, that's even more of a crapshoot.

ETA she did not lose smell or taste, but another daughter awhile back DID lose her sense of taste completely for about 24 hours and ran fever, etc. and she also tested negative. She had 2 rapid tests done on different days. absolutely completely lost her taste. It's baffling. 

 

If you give blood, they might check for antibodies for free. That’s what they’re doing around me.

The tests are not 100% but if they do find antibodies, at least you’ll know.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are going to be allowing some international students back in provided they do two week quarantine.  Currently confirmed Singapore and Hong Kong.  The health dude doing the interview was evasive about numbers and locations and this is locally pretty unpopular.  Hopefully it’s well managed.  I think there’s a bit of resentment that people may not be able to get back from Victoria for study etc but international people will be able to come back.  

  • Confused 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

We are going to be allowing some international students back in provided they do two week quarantine.  Currently confirmed Singapore and Hong Kong.  The health dude doing the interview was evasive about numbers and locations and this is locally pretty unpopular.  Hopefully it’s well managed.  I think there’s a bit of resentment that people may not be able to get back from Victoria for study etc but international people will be able to come back.  

Scotland is welcoming international  students.  They are to be collected  by dedicated bus from the airport and taken straight  to 14 days of quarantine in University accommodation.  

On a lighter note: 'fiction readers make the best leaders'

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/aug/16/fiction-readers-made-best-leaders-in-covid-19-crisis-val-mcdermid-edinburgh?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

Scotland is welcoming international  students.  They are to be collected  by dedicated bus from the airport and taken straight  to 14 days of quarantine in University accommodation.  

On a lighter note: 'fiction readers make the best leaders'

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2020/aug/16/fiction-readers-made-best-leaders-in-covid-19-crisis-val-mcdermid-edinburgh?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Interesting to know we aren’t the only ones.  I do have a relative working in the field and I think they have all taken annual leave reduced hours to prevent job losses but if things don’t change soon that won’t be enough.  And Singapore seems like one of the safer options.  I’m surprised about Hong Kong because they have the outbreak but it wonder if this relates a bit to the political situation there and people needing to get out.  Not that that’s been said but it might make the decision more understandable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Interesting to know we aren’t the only ones.  I do have a relative working in the field and I think they have all taken annual leave reduced hours to prevent job losses but if things don’t change soon that won’t be enough.  And Singapore seems like one of the safer options.  I’m surprised about Hong Kong because they have the outbreak but it wonder if this relates a bit to the political situation there and people needing to get out.  Not that that’s been said but it might make the decision more understandable.

Yes. Universities need the overseas fees to survive.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, popmom said:

Here's an article if anyone is interested --from Aug 6. A couple of highlights: 

."Two studies from Wuhan, China, arouse concern about false negative RT-PCR tests in patients with apparent Covid-19 illness. In a preprint, Yang et al. described 213 patients hospitalized with Covid-19, of whom 37 were critically ill.2 They collected 205 throat swabs, 490 nasal swabs, and 142 sputum samples (median, 3 per patient) and used an RT-PCR test approved by the Chinese regulator. In days 1 through 7 after onset of illness, 11% of sputum, 27% of nasal, and 40% of throat samples were deemed falsely negative."

"But sensitivity for many available tests appears to be substantially lower: the studies cited above suggest that 70% is probably a reasonable estimate. At this sensitivity level, with a pretest probability of 50%, the post-test probability with a negative test would be 23% — far too high to safely assume someone is uninfected."

"Third, measuring test sensitivity in asymptomatic people is an urgent priority. It will also be important to develop methods (e.g., prediction rules) for estimating the pretest probability of infection (for asymptomatic and symptomatic people) to allow calculation of post-test probabilities after positive or negative results. Fourth, negative results even on a highly sensitive test cannot rule out infection if the pretest probability is high, so clinicians should not trust unexpected negative results (i.e., assume a negative result is a “false negative” in a person with typical symptoms and known exposure). It’s possible that performing several simultaneous or repeated tests could overcome an individual test’s limited sensitivity; however, such strategies need validation."

This...the above quote is not happening in my personal experience. Especially with the daughter who lost her sense of taste. The doctors seem to be taking the test results as gospel truth.

If we had better contact tracing, we could maybe test people more than once on specific days they are expected to have a decent chance of giving a good sample. I think the false negative rate is on par with flu tests. 

21 hours ago, popmom said:

One more observation and I'll shut up about this. Another daughter (I have 4) started grad school last week at the same university. She went recently for her required COVID test. It was a nasal swab but not the "brain swab". The nurse asked her if she could have been exposed. Dd tells the nurse that yes--her sister is waiting on test results. The nurse said, "Oh, well you should probably go get a REAL test somewhere else." 🤦‍♀️ I was so angry I emailed my congressman. Why in the world are all these schools wasting all this money if the tests aren't accurate? They care more about covering their rears than public health, I guess. Or maybe this is the best they can do idk. But if this is the best, we have a long row to hoe.

Did she explain what a "real" test is? That's crazy.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

222 cases for vic.  still well on the way down but I’m worried that if it’s too slow and still transmission at the end of the six weeks people won’t want to stay in lockdown any longer.  17 deaths today.

We have family in Melbourne with health issues. They are continually frustrated with their friends not taking this serious enough. 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, kbutton said:

If we had better contact tracing, we could maybe test people more than once on specific days they are expected to have a decent chance of giving a good sample. I think the false negative rate is on par with flu tests. 

Did she explain what a "real" test is? That's crazy.

Yes...on par with flu (rapid) tests. But we have herd immunity to flu. We need to do better with this virus, and I believe we can.  There was no explanation as to what a "real test" is. I'm guessing it's the more uncomfortable "brain swab" that my other daughter had. But even those tests (according to the articles I'm reading) have an alarming number of false negatives.. 

Edited by popmom
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, popmom said:

Yes...on par with flu (rapid) tests. But we have herd immunity to flu. We need to do better with this virus, and I believe we can.  There was no explanation as to what a "real test" is. I'm guessing it's the more uncomfortable "brain swab" that my other daughter had. But even those tests (according to the articles I'm reading) have an alarming number of false negatives.. 

I understand, but I don't know if there is going to be a more accurate test. I assume if we did better contact tracing, we might have a more optimal idea of what day of illness to use for testing purposes that could raise the accuracy rate or our confidence in it unless those rates are with ideal situations.

I know collection has to be done properly to get the optimum rate of accuracy. 

Are the nasal swabs and the "brain swab" tests the same PCR test with different collection methods? I guess that is my real question--it seems like it must surely be malpractice to collect the PCR test in a way that is less effective if we have data saying it's not as reliable. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, kbutton said:

I understand, but I don't know if there is going to be a more accurate test. I assume if we did better contact tracing, we might have a more optimal idea of what day of illness to use for testing purposes that could raise the accuracy rate or our confidence in it unless those rates are with ideal situations.

I know collection has to be done properly to get the optimum rate of accuracy. 

Are the nasal swabs and the "brain swab" tests the same PCR test with different collection methods? I guess that is my real question--it seems like it must surely be malpractice to collect the PCR test in a way that is less effective if we have data saying it's not as reliable. 

I have mentioned this up thread but I have seen an ent doctor complaining about the way he’s seen videos of swabs etc done.  His comment is that the sinus goes back not up.  So I think maybe there’s issues with the level of training etc on the swabbing technique.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have mentioned this up thread but I have seen an ent doctor complaining about the way he’s seen videos of swabs etc done.  His comment is that the sinus goes back not up.  So I think maybe there’s issues with the level of training etc on the swabbing technique.  

Probably so, but it's the same as the flu test according to my DH (healthcare worker). If it's just technique, it sounds like the person doing the testing in popmom's scenario is gleefully not complying with standards, which I find really awful. My DH is very careful to do everything to standards. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, kbutton said:

Probably so, but it's the same as the flu test according to my DH (healthcare worker). If it's just technique, it sounds like the person doing the testing in popmom's scenario is gleefully not complying with standards, which I find really awful. My DH is very careful to do everything to standards. 

Not all tests are administered the same way. In the university's plan certain students were to be allowed to test at home. I can't remember the exact wording, but it stated that these tests only required swabbing just inside the nose--not the more invasive and uncomfortable swab. Apparently, this is the same type of test they used to screen all the students. So in that case "technique" wouldn't be as important. 

Maybe the less invasive swab is an antigen test? I'm no expert. I thought all swab tests were PCT until today. 

Edited by popmom
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Coronavirus antigen tests: quick, cheap, and too often wrong

Just read on the CDC website that the most in office flu swabs are also antigen and not PCR--also having lower sensitivity--higher rate of false negatives.

So anyway, I'm sure THIS is what the nurse meant by "real test". She meant go get a molecular/RT-PCR. Now it makes sense.

Edited by popmom
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Vic is still heading down with 212 cases today.

nsw have had a case in a quarantine hotel security guard . Apparently he also worked at a market.  It seems we should be looking into paying enough and making some rules about quarantine guards not working other jobs.  We’ve already implemented limitations on aged care workers working across multiple facilities.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

order of symptoms could be important in working out if it’s flu or COVID

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-08-19/the-order-covid-19-symptoms-present/12571116

My only worry with info like this is that some people may decide not to get tested because they didn’t experience the exact sequence.

 

I would feel better about that if

symptoms on studies I have seen did not show a lot of CV19 with no fever at all

it came from ZOE with a huge number of people tracking their symptoms 

if people took their temperature daily to know of a fever prior to any other symptom

...

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay, I'm having a bit of a mental disconnect going on. Bronchitis and viral pneumonia are both symptoms of covid19, right? I mean those are part of it's MO? Because around here, it seems like people are seeing them as separate issues from covid. Maybe it is even partly because of the way a doctor might present the diagnosis to the patient. "He has viral pneumonia, but he's going to be okay," about an 80+ man who tested positive over a week ago (when he went in to the first appointment because he thought he had bronchitis). I've heard of a couple who have been exposed, at least, attribute symptoms to "just the (seasonal allergies/bronchitis) I get every year." I'm concerned because I think they are spreading the virus and because they brush off the possible seriousness of the situation. 😞 Some of them are trusting a doctor who is elderly and who hasn't kept up with recent information on this virus. Shouldn't they be treated in a different way than the typical bronchitis/pneumonia? People seem to have dug in their heels and are determined not to give the virus any credence, though. Seems to have become a pride thing. It seems to be so entrenched, that even if someone dies of covid-related pneumonia, I doubt seriously if they will ever say it is due to covid. It's weird and sad and discouraging to me. Part of what is sad and discouraging is that there is no reasoning with the mindset. I guess that relieves me of feeling responsibility, but it still really makes me sad. 

  • Confused 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

Okay, I'm having a bit of a mental disconnect going on. Bronchitis and viral pneumonia are both symptoms of covid19, right? I mean those are part of it's MO? Because around here, it seems like people are seeing them as separate issues from covid. Maybe it is even partly because of the way a doctor might present the diagnosis to the patient. "He has viral pneumonia, but he's going to be okay," about an 80+ man who tested positive over a week ago (when he went in to the first appointment because he thought he had bronchitis). I've heard of a couple who have been exposed, at least, attribute symptoms to "just the (seasonal allergies/bronchitis) I get every year." I'm concerned because I think they are spreading the virus and because they brush off the possible seriousness of the situation. 😞 Some of them are trusting a doctor who is elderly and who hasn't kept up with recent information on this virus. Shouldn't they be treated in a different way than the typical bronchitis/pneumonia? People seem to have dug in their heels and are determined not to give the virus any credence, though. Seems to have become a pride thing. It seems to be so entrenched, that even if someone dies of covid-related pneumonia, I doubt seriously if they will ever say it is due to covid. It's weird and sad and discouraging to me. Part of what is sad and discouraging is that there is no reasoning with the mindset. I guess that relieves me of feeling responsibility, but it still really makes me sad. 

But most Covid tests of people with symptoms are coming back negative, so I think it is reasonable to believe they don't have Covid, unless there has been a likely exposure or significant outbreak in the area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, SKL said:

But most Covid tests of people with symptoms are coming back negative, so I think it is reasonable to believe they don't have Covid, unless there has been a likely exposure or significant outbreak in the area.

They have been exposed and there is an outbreak.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Jaybee said:

Okay, I'm having a bit of a mental disconnect going on. Bronchitis and viral pneumonia are both symptoms of covid19, right? I mean those are part of it's MO? Because around here, it seems like people are seeing them as separate issues from covid. Maybe it is even partly because of the way a doctor might present the diagnosis to the patient. "He has viral pneumonia, but he's going to be okay," about an 80+ man who tested positive over a week ago (when he went in to the first appointment because he thought he had bronchitis). I've heard of a couple who have been exposed, at least, attribute symptoms to "just the (seasonal allergies/bronchitis) I get every year." I'm concerned because I think they are spreading the virus and because they brush off the possible seriousness of the situation. 😞 

 

Similar situation with my MIL, except she didn't have a positive test because they never tested her. Just made the assumption that because she already has asthma and cardiac issues that that's what they were seeing. I think every patient with shortness of breath, bronchitis or pneumonia should be tested for Covid now, and it boggles my mind that clinicians would not want to rule it out for their own safety and public health, even if they suspect another cause. 

I'm sure this varies by clinician and by region. States with fewer cases and more access to testing offer testing everyone with Covid symptoms, which surely contributes to reducing spread and keeping cases down. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...