wuhan - coronavirus

[lewelma]

3 hours ago, Acadie said:

I appreciate your posting and would welcome any further updates. It's really important for Americans to hear it doesn't have to be the way it is here in the US, that there has been enormous and unnecessary loss of life, wellbeing, and economic stability--and that we could still turn things around.

I'm glad you appreciate hearing about a positive outcome.  I feel so distant from the boardies in the past month because all the talk is about adapting to this new way of life and dealing with a ton of uncertainty. We have had 3 months of back to normal now. So I go to the farmers' market with no fear of being in an unmasked dense crowd, and then I come and read on the board and feel so sad and confused and really out of the loop. 

The big push now is to not be complacent.  Last week they asked every household to get some masks, just so we would be ready if/when there was a break in quarantine.  They are very aware of how Australia was so close to elimination status and then a quarantine breach caused the now huge numbers. When we did our super strict lockdown for 8 weeks, we did not use masks. So there is no culture here of wearing them even during lockdown. I was listening to the radio, and there was a suggestion that we do a nation wide drill - a day where we all wear masks just to get a sense of what would change and how we would handle it.

I also think that were grumblings at first about how no other country ran as strict a lockdown as us (we are top of the stringency index), and why were we so stupid and had ruined our economy.  But the some of the details of the decisions have come out recently, and one of them was that NZ has fewer ICU beds than most any other OECD country, so they were really concerned they could not care for the sick.  The choice was made then to name the elimination strategy publicly and go for it with a single minded focus.  And I will say that although there are still some descenters, most people are *very* glad we just went hard early so it didn't just drag on and on. 

There is also a fear that it will be every country for itself with the vaccine. So NZ is talking about rebuilding its infrastructure for vaccine production that was lost in the 1980s.  We are also a part of some international research units, and NZ is one of the leading countries in *animal* vaccine research, so we do have some relevant expertise here.  But purchasing power of a small country is obviously small so there is definitely a concern that we will be left behind at the back end of the earth.

Another big issue that is being bandied about is the idea of privately-run quarantine.  There are a lot of businesses who need international experts and skilled labor, and there is just not enough room in quarantine.  They are starting to discuss the balance between space for returning kiwis vs space for experts/skilled labor who could help the economy -- actually diving up the space based on need.  I think that there is definitely a split in the public over whether we can trust a private group to carefully manage quarantine.  All we need is 1 person, and it will spread like wildfire in an unmasked, no-social distancing society. Although there has been a discussion of how all of us should be wearing masks just in case this happens, I think it would be a very hard sell daily masking to the public given that we don't have it and haven't for 100 days.  The government would definitely use up its good will.  

I do think complacency has seeped in.  Tests are way down from 7000/day to 1000/day, and 25% of people are refusing tests when the GP recommends them.  The government is trying to encourage people to get tested to make sure our sentinel testing catches anything unexpected.  It is not just quarantined individuals we need to worry about spreading it.  It is the workers in quarantine (police, nurses, cooks, drivers, cleaners, etc), the airport workers, customs agents, flight attendants, ship yard workers, boaties, etc. We just have too much to lose.

There is also some discussion about letting very wealthy people in and asking them to pay a ton to live here.  Interesting idea to help fund the quarantine, which is a massive cost. 

Well, there is probably more than you asked for.  But it was good to write it down instead of doing the hard work of homeschooling!

Ruth in NZ

[Sneezyone]

6 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

Am I reading the tables right, that less than 100 kids have died of Covid?

 

A note of caution...this data is REALLY old in COVID time.

[TracyP]

Here is an angle of treatment I don't remember reading about yet. Our Natural Killer (NK) cells are a first line of defense against viral infections. They have been shown to not function properly in severe covid patients. (This is a good summary.)  They are known from past studies to not function well in the elderly and obese. Also studies have shown a gender and race difference in the expression of NK cells with white women having the strongest expression and AA men having the weakest NK cell expression. Interesting to me since this fits with the populations that seem to be most at risk for severe cases of covid.

I was digging into this after reading about a trial the U of MN began last Wednesday to give covid patients an infusion of NK cells to fight covid. It is a treatment they have been developing for use in cancer patients, but they think it could have the potential to benefit covid patients as well. You can read more about it here.

 

[Pen]

1 hour ago, happysmileylady said:

Certainly some will likely end up with long term problems, just as with happens with any other disease.  

It's just the lopsidedness of this is interesting to me.  The number listed is like half the number of kids who have died from flu, but once you get to the older age groups, the number of people dying of covid is like two or three times the number flu.  It's a rather dramatic difference to me.  

 

 

It does seem striking.  I hope it is not just a fluke based on the SARS2 virus not having found a more at risk population of children yet.  My understanding is that influenza is most dangerous to children with additional risk factors.  It may turn out that SARS2 will also be, but perhaps that the relatively low level of infection in population as a whole, plus school closures, plus perhaps at least some mask wearing, and perhaps increased hygiene,  has so far tended to help protect more at risk infants and children. 

I know some people here report in their areas that they commonly see whole families out shopping etc, but since March I myself have not seen any children at all in stores I have been to. (Usually there would be several encountered on any trip, especially in summer when school is not in session.) I have not been in indoors public places other than stores, so don’t know about other places and children congregating.  I have seen kids walking and riding bikes outside which is probably safer. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html#click=https://t.co/sUDleY2iMP
 

vaccine status tracker - summary of all vaccines in development and where they’re out 

[lewelma]

Well, we have decisive leadership. 6 hours ago a case in the community was identified that had an unknown source.  The government just announced in a live press conference at 9:30pm tonight that they are locking down all of Auckland.  Schools and childcare centers are closed, public transport is closed, all people must work from home, all bars/restaurants/shops are closed (except grocery and drug stores), masks required in grocery stores, all movement in and out of Auckland is prohibited (with roadblocks), all gatherings including weddings and funerals over 10 people are prohibited.  

The rest of the country will go to level 2 lockdown - 2 meter distancing required, masks on public transport required, and gatherings above 50 prohibited. 

This will last for 3 days to give them time to figure out where this single family got it from, and how widespread the virus is. They are planning widespread mass testing. A further decision will be made on Friday depending on what they find.  The decision was to go hard and go early, like we did last time.

 

Edited August 11, 2020 by lewelma

[lewelma]

Wow! They just texted every phone in the country with that funny sound and the rules!

Edited August 11, 2020 by lewelma

[Ausmumof3]

13 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Wow! They just texted every phone in the country with that funny sound and the rules!

Just saw on the news and thought Of you guys.  I think it said 4 cases in one family!  I guess at least you know the testing is working if they’re picking it up, hopefully.  

[Ausmumof3]

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/inducing-hypothermia-icu-patients-covid-19-off-ventilators/story?id=72298631&__twitter_impression=true
 

Lowering patients body temperature is being used to help reduce ventilator use. (Therapeutic hypothermia)

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589936820300268?via%3Dihub
 

here’s the link to the.case studies - didn’t link before because my phone went flat.

this reminds me a bit of something I’ve read they do with premie babies in some places though I don’t know if it’s actually on the same basis.

[Pen]

3 hours ago, Happymomof1 said:

Interesting take on the fact that possibly those who have been immunized with a variety of vaccines have better chance of avoiding Covid or at least its worst effects.  I'm betting most of those people also mask a lot as well.  Good news for my family. We've gotten so many immunizations over the years because of our international missions. We've done typhoid 3 different times, yellow fever, etc.  Interesting.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/11/health/us-coronavirus-tuesday/index.html

 

Do you know if once there has been an initial case at a particular NH, whether case spread and/or cfr has been lower in former Missionary or Veteran Nursing Homes (veterans would also tend to have had a lot of immunizations) as compared to non Veteran Nursing Homes? 

Are there any BCG trials underway? 

[Pen]

@square_25 this is by way of continuing discussion from Dawn’s thread that I did not want to derail.

 

And maybe we could at least in part discuss this in terms of BCG vaccination which does not currently have the same degree of  hot button as HCQ or Ivermectin. Though the difference between injection versus oral administration makes it very different.  Can you think of a medicine that can be taken orally as a potential prophylactic that is not a hot button one right now?  

 

 I want to start by saying that I do not disagree with you that an excellent large population RCT is an ideal gold standard for giving approval to new drugs, vaccines, etc.

 

However, I do not agree that it is a proper standard during a pandemic, and particularly not for medicines or vaccines in long use with much knowledge about contraindications and adverse effects.  I mean this both in a practical way (doing these proper and excellent trials means that on average it takes around 12 years to get new drugs to a point that they are available to public, but in a pandemic even a few months is major) and in terms of the actual governing law.

 

Let us start with the actual law.

 

“The Public Health Service (PHS) Act forms the foundation of the HHS’ legal authority for responding to public emergencies by authorizing the HHS Secretary to take key actions, such as lead all federal public health and medical response, declare a public health emergency, assist states in meeting health emergencies, maintain the Strategic National Stockpile, and control communicable diseases.  The PHS Act was amended by the Pandemic and All-Hazards Preparedness Act (PAHPA) of 2006External and the Pandemic and All-Hazards Reauthorization Act (PAHPRA) of 2013External. “

 

Part of of the relevant language of the law for medicines during a pandemic is:

[I have to find quote to add later]

 

”May” is extremely important. The standard of proof is not an RCT trial standard, but merely a may help standard. 

So using BCG as example, is it possible that it may help?  I think the answer is yes.  I don’t think anyone should be forced to be vaccinated with BCG, and I think everything else like wearing masks, distancing, hygiene, and search for other vaccines should continue, but I think if someone (at least a competent adult) has read the information that vaccines for other illnesses may help reduce incidence or severity of CV19 and wants to get one, I do not think that should be blocked by bureaucrats.  

(Probably to be continued after I find the statutory language.) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Pen]

I can’t seem to copy and paste from the statute.  Temporarily at least I am using Wikipedia quote:

 

 

“Subsequent legislative authorities expanded the latitude of the class of drugs eligible for consideration, and the range of testing to which the drug or therapy has been subjected. The scope and applicability of EUA's is also affected by presidential executive orders (Title 3 of the Code of Federal Regulations), which may affect the definition of the situations considered to be public health emergencies, and under which the authority of the FDA to issue EUA's may be exercised.

Consideration of a drug for an EUA requires a finding that it is "reasonable to believe" that the drug "may be effective" "to prevent, diagnose, or treat serious or life-threatening diseases or conditions that can be caused by a [chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear] agent(s)" or to mitigate a disease or condition caused by an FDA-regulated product ... used to diagnose, treat, or prevent a disease or condition caused by" such an agent.^[1]

The "may be effective" standard for EUAs provides for a lower level of evidence than the "effectiveness" standard that FDA uses for product approvals, using a risk-benefit analysis based on "the totality of the scientific evidence available", it is "reasonable to believe" that the product may be effective for the specified use.^[1]

 

^”

[Pen]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I guess pretty much all of the over the counter medicines? Like, if you think Vitamin D helps (I'm less convinced), you can take that, or you can take zinc, etc. But then I don't see any reason to treat HCQ as a potential prophylactic given the results that are currently coming out. From looking around, it seems like people try HCQ for lots of things, which is why it got tried in the first place, and then most of the time, that doesn't pan out. And it's not a drug that's entirely side-effect free, either, from what I understand? 

Anyway, we don't need to keep discussing HCQ 🙂 . Please let me know if you do find evidence of any sort that it's working well. I'm interested in RCTs and natural experiments much more than I am in flawed observational studies, but I'm overall just convinced by the balance of the evidence. I do not have strong priors on this and will update my information as soon as I have more of it. 

 

IMO You (and of course you are far from being alone in this; obviously you seem to be in the majority) are repeatedly asking for evidence that is beyond the “May be effective” statutory requirement. 

 

 

[Pen]

2 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

IMO You (and of course you are far from being alone in this; obviously you seem to be in the majority) are repeatedly asking for evidence that is beyond the “May be effective” statutory requirement. 

 

 

 

I want to clarify that I think that’s totally fine for your own personal  decisions about whether you use vitamin D or zinc or BCG or ABC or whatever to want a very high level of proof before adopting something for yourself. 

 

[Jean in Newcastle]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

To be fair, I'm just lazy with Vitamin D 😉 . It probably wouldn't hurt to take it. I'm more worried about HCQ than Vitamin D, because certainly there's a higher rate of documented side effects. 

Vitamin D is necessary for human health, pandemic or not.  I have very low levels and have a hard time maintaining appropriate levels so I have supplemented for a long time.  Because it is fat soluble, it can be misused and can reach toxicity at a certain point in people who don't need it but most people tend to be deficient so toxicity isn't a huge concern for most people.  I still recommend that people get their levels tested though to be sure.

HCQ is not a necessary hormone/ supplement.  It is given for a very specific reason and can harm you in some cases.  There is a reason why it is a prescription med.  Doctors can prescribe it off-label even without an EUA.  But most doctors will not prescribe it "just in case" because the studies do not support it's use as a preventative.  No amount of rigid insistence is going to change the studies showing that it isn't effective. 

[Pen]

41 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I guess pretty much all of the over the counter medicines? Like, if you think Vitamin D helps (I'm less convinced), you can take that, or you can take zinc, etc. But then I don't see any reason to treat HCQ as a potential prophylactic given the results that are currently coming out. From looking around, it seems like people try HCQ for lots of things, which is why it got tried in the first place

The basis for trying it in the first place is much stronger than that

 

31 minutes ago, square_25 said:

No, I don't think so. There was weak evidence that it may have been effective, which is why it got the EUA. There are now a few studies suggesting it's not effective, so the EUA got revoked. I do think the larger studies supersede the initial anecdotes. But I am also open to those not being the last word on the HCQ. 

 

Following a fraudulent study.

Covid-19: Lancet retracts paper that halted hydroxychloroquine trials | World news ...

Jun 4, 2020 · Retraction made after Guardian investigation found inconsistencies in data

 

 

Quote

 

, and then most of the time, that doesn't pan out. And it's not a drug that's entirely side-effect free, either, from what I understand? 

 

.

 

Pretty much nothing is entirely side effect free. 

 

Vaccines certainly have side side effects and many (flu eg) do not tend to have high effective rates...and yet they can still help to slow a contagious disease spread 

Quote

Anyway, we don't need to keep discussing HCQ 🙂 . Please let me know if you do find evidence of any sort that it's working well. I'm interested in RCTs and natural experiments much more than I am in flawed observational studies, but I'm overall just convinced by the balance of the evidence. I do not have strong priors on this and will update my information as soon as I have more of it. 

 

Fine.  

 

ETA - and if you come to an excellent RCT or natural experiment using HCQ as a prophylactic in correct dosage and schedule (Let’s say the Zev Zelenko dosage and schedule)  that shows it does not help to reduce death rate  I would be interested in that.   (My expectation based on mode of action would be that it improves and balances immune function so that it would do more to lessen severity rather than to prevent infection .) 

Edited August 11, 2020 by Pen

[JennyD]

lewelma, thanks for the NZ update.  I guess it was only a matter of time, but I was so hoping that you guys could just ride this whole thing out in your glass bubble down there.  Very glad to see that your government is reacting decisively and quickly, though.

Israel update:  New cases seem to have stabilized around 1700 a day, in a country of 9 million people, so that's a very high rate of infection.  Positivity rate is about 7%.  Schools are supposed to restart Sept 1 but all of the plans put forth so far seem entirely unworkable.  Unemployment is 20+%. There have been massive demonstrations in front of the PM's residence for weeks.  Borders are still shut to non-citizens.  The governing coalition is falling apart and it is possible that the country may go to its fourth (!) election in less than two years.  So all in all, not great.

 

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

What dosage and schedule is that, so that I know? 

 

I have heard it in at least one interview. But I did not write it down.  If I come to it again, or hear it again in future,  I will post it or a link. 

 

[Joker]

It’s not so much death in young people that I’m worried about, but more the long term damage that might be done.

I know at my dc’s uni one of their athletes had it and now has heart issues. I read that one of the reasons the Big 10 canceled their football season is because they had several athletes with those same issues. We just don’t know enough yet and it’s concerning.

[Pen]

 

@square_25

https://youtu.be/Y6gDletOCHc

https://youtu.be/Y6gDletOCHc

 

[Ausmumof3]

6 hours ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, I probably should take Vitamin D from what my reading suggests, especially given that we aren't going outside much. We have a very sunny apartment, but I can't imagine that would do it. The fact that I don't take it is just inertia, pure and simple. 

Doesn’t the glass filter out the UV or whatever you need to make it?  I have to run UV lights for our lizards indoors because of this otherwise they get some disease.

[Ausmumof3]

5 hours ago, Joker said:

It’s not so much death in young people that I’m worried about, but more the long term damage that might be done.

I know at my dc’s uni one of their athletes had it and now has heart issues. I read that one of the reasons the Big 10 canceled their football season is because they had several athletes with those same issues. We just don’t know enough yet and it’s concerning.

There was an article yesterday I meant to post here about kids as “COVID long haulers”.  One was a dancer who previously worked 16 hours (?) a day and is now struggling with basic daily tasks.  I will share it if I come across it again.

[Ausmumof3]

Back over 400 for Vic today and 21 deaths.  The number of infections in health care workers is hugely concerning.  The gov are claiming they are acquiring most of them in the community not at work but their rate of infection is higher than the community and even ENT surgeons etc are being told to use surgical masks not N95s so I think PPE and processes may not be adequate. 

[Ausmumof3]

9 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I'd love to see. 

And you seem to be right about glass. Interesting! I did not know that. 

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/10/health/children-long-covid-symptoms-intl-gbr/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

lol the dancer was training 16 hours per week not day!! I was thinking that didn’t make sense.

its only anecdotal at this stage but worth keeping in mind.

[EmseB]

I know I always feel like the contrarian in these threads, but I'll say that I have stopped reading the anecdotes of worst-case scenarios with covid because the news is picking them up primarily for clicks and such and it doesn't help with decision making for me and worsens my anxiety and makes it harder for me to make actual risk assessments.

Even the inflammatory syndrome in kids...reading about that when it was just regular flu season made my anxiety skyrocket and it seems to be no more prevalent in covid, maybe less so. Or post-viral symdromes...those things happening were already making me super anxious before covid. I know that covid can be severe for people in otherwise low risk groups, there just seems to be more of an interest in elevating those stories in the media regardless of the actual risk of that happening to me or mine and it was starting to make me crazy and fearful.

[Jean in Newcastle]

8 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

I think this is partially a thing really.

Most of us never paid any attention to flu issues. Truth is somewhere between 100 and 200 kids die of the flu each year, and thousands are hospitalized.  Any time anyone is hospitalized for an illness, there is always a possibility of complications and long term impacts.  Whenever anyone is hospitalized with a serious version of any disease (from flu to chicken pox to measles, to whatever else) there is always a risk of complications and life long complications.  

It's just something we rarely pay attention to.  

I have said this before, but I still, even at this point in the year, don't know a single person who has even been diagnosed with Covid, let alone have lingering issues, but I absolutely know at least one person who has died of flu.  Complications of flu can include things like strokes, heart attacks, DVT, and more.   

Our local news always reports flu deaths of children. Or really of anyone who is not elderly. 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

I know I always feel like the contrarian in these threads, but I'll say that I have stopped reading the anecdotes of worst-case scenarios with covid because the news is picking them up primarily for clicks and such and it doesn't help with decision making for me and worsens my anxiety and makes it harder for me to make actual risk assessments.

Even the inflammatory syndrome in kids...reading about that when it was just regular flu season made my anxiety skyrocket and it seems to be no more prevalent in covid, maybe less so. Or post-viral symdromes...those things happening were already making me super anxious before covid. I know that covid can be severe for people in otherwise low risk groups, there just seems to be more of an interest in elevating those stories in the media regardless of the actual risk of that happening to me or mine and it was starting to make me crazy and fearful.

Well yes.  I think they are trying to scare people into taking it seriously plus a bit of for clicks factor.  The article on long covid in kids many of them didn’t even have positive covid tests.  I just for myself want to know all the potential scenarios we may be looking at to inform decisions.  

[Pen]

 

 

 

 

John Campbell reviews some papers about children and Covid 19

 

(one of the articles says children under 5 have very high levels of virus, thus Dr John speculates that they are likely to be high drivers of viral spread even though some are now saying they aren’t.     I keep in mind that at one point we were told it wasn’t able to spread human to human even though it clearly was doing so.) 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

https://youtu.be/arDjl8o0Dqk

 

Recombinant Hyperimmune 

https://youtu.be/arDjl8o0Dqk

Edited August 12, 2020 by Pen

[lewelma]

Bit of a detective story happening over here.  There is one family with it --4 of the 6 members have it. They know of no link to overseas travel.  So the possibilities:

1) False positives have been ruled out

2) Quarantine/Air staff link: they are doing genomic sequencing to see if they can find a link between the family and someone in contact with the border.

3) International shipping: one of the members of the family apparently works in cold storage. So they are testing the environment/surfaces as the virus can survive longer on surfaces if cold/frozen. (this is the best option as it means that the link is direct to the family and not through intermediaries who have it that we don't know of)

4) Community spread: They are testing 1% of Auckland each day for 3 days to try to find any others who have it.

While waiting for the outcome of the investigation: Roadblocks are in place to keep all Aucklanders in Auckland, stay at home orders are in place for 3 days (including schools) for Auckland, and ALL nursing homes/retirement villages throughout the entire country have been completely locked down - not by order of the government but by agreement between all these independent privately run facilities. 

The hope is to stamp it out fast.  

Edited August 12, 2020 by lewelma

[lewelma]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Whoa. Any bets on what it is?? COVID materializing out of thin air is kind of my worst nightmare 😉 

Crossing fingers on the cold storage international shipping.  That is quite an odd job to have and then be the one family who gets it.

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 hour ago, happysmileylady said:

And the real question is....how much do ANY of us pay attention to it?  I only happen to know that about 180 kids have died of flu this year, specifically because I looked it up as it relates to covid.  

How many people really actually know how flu affects kids each year.  

Well I obviously pay attention to it because I know that they report on it because I have watched the coverage for years. I am not making a poll on how many people don’t keep up with pretty basic public health news 

[Pen]

Another description of Zelenko protocol - interview from day before he went in for surgery related to his cancer a couple of weeks ago, so possibly more up to date than previous link.

https://youtu.be/YKkrSUVGzIw

https://youtu.be/YKkrSUVGzIw

(ETA I wish interviewer would talk much less and let Zelenko speak more.  Also interviewer tries to bring in politics more than I like, but I think the reply from Zelenko that the virus affects people without regard for political party affiliation is helpful.) 

@square_25  also @matrips

 

 

Edited August 12, 2020 by Pen

[Terabith]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/health/coronavirus-aerosols-indoors.html?referringSource=articleShare&fbclid=IwAR2sLwt7fhw1qiarow42TVro8uqN3o0WbCkidarkuD81kLGGp2LF0Gwu0fY

[Frances]

5 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

I think this is partially a thing really.

Most of us never paid any attention to flu issues. Truth is somewhere between 100 and 200 kids die of the flu each year, and thousands are hospitalized.  Any time anyone is hospitalized for an illness, there is always a possibility of complications and long term impacts.  Whenever anyone is hospitalized with a serious version of any disease (from flu to chicken pox to measles, to whatever else) there is always a risk of complications and life long complications.  

It's just something we rarely pay attention to.  

I have said this before, but I still, even at this point in the year, don't know a single person who has even been diagnosed with Covid, let alone have lingering issues, but I absolutely know at least one person who has died of flu.  Complications of flu can include things like strokes, heart attacks, DVT, and more.   

We always paid attention to the flu and I would closely follow local news reports each year. With two asthmatics in the family, even a cold is not just a cold. Plus, when my dad and FIL were alive, there was always the concern of exposing them as they were battling cancer. Even before all of this started with the coronavirus, my mom’s doctor told her she didn’t want her attending mass anymore during flu season because she is at high risk for complications. As far as I know none of us have ever had it, but we always get flu shots every year. 

[Ausmumof3]

4 hours ago, lewelma said:

Bit of a detective story happening over here.  There is one family with it --4 of the 6 members have it. They know of no link to overseas travel.  So the possibilities:

1) False positives have been ruled out

2) Quarantine/Air staff link: they are doing genomic sequencing to see if they can find a link between the family and someone in contact with the border.

3) International shipping: one of the members of the family apparently works in cold storage. So they are testing the environment/surfaces as the virus can survive longer on surfaces if cold/frozen. (this is the best option as it means that the link is direct to the family and not through intermediaries who have it that we don't know of)

4) Community spread: They are testing 1% of Auckland each day for 3 days to try to find any others who have it.

While waiting for the outcome of the investigation: Roadblocks are in place to keep all Aucklanders in Auckland, stay at home orders are in place for 3 days (including schools) for Auckland, and ALL nursing homes/retirement villages throughout the entire country have been completely locked down - not by order of the government but by agreement between all these independent privately run facilities. 

The hope is to stamp it out fast.  

I feel less stupid for my concerns about imported frozen food now.  That was mentioned as a possible link/source on the Beijing outbreak.  While it might be less concerning in one sense the thought of it being transmissible through frozen or cold storage goods is somewhat worrying!

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN257191?__twitter_impression=true
 

while we’re talking about frozen food apparently found on the surface of seafood again in China.  

[lewelma]

Cool storage facility tested in the hunt for the index case in NZ.  They said in the article that there is no published research on Covid entering via freight.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122423538/coronavirus-auckland-cool-storage-facility-tested-over-concern-covid19-entered-nz-via-freight

Edited August 12, 2020 by lewelma

[Ausmumof3]

8 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Cool storage facility tested in the hunt for the index case in NZ.  They said in the article that there is no published research on Covid entering via freight.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/122423538/coronavirus-auckland-cool-storage-facility-tested-over-concern-covid19-entered-nz-via-freight

I think there’s possibly a difference between general freight and frozen stuff because doesn’t it survive longer at cold temps?

[Ausmumof3]

Highest day for US for deaths since May 27.  I guess this is reflective of the peak in the last two weeks of July?  Or maybe just a weird glitch with data.

[Melissa in Australia]

7 hours ago, square_25 said:

I'm not really reading anecdotes of worst-case scenarios with COVID, but I actually don't know anyone IRL who had a post-viral syndrome after the flu, while a lot of the people we know who had COVID report lingering issues. So I'm currently cautiously assuming that it's more prevalent with COVID than it is with other things. 

Do you have data on inflammatory syndromes in kids after the flu? I never paid any attention in this, so I don't know the rate of this complication. 

not data,

 but I had bronchitis every year from age 3 to 13. I have scared lungs from it

I had Ross River Virus - resulted in long term wrist and foot pain similar to arthritis

 My Brother had Glandular Fever  ( I believe what you call Mono or something ) when he was 13 - resulted in Chronic Fatigue that lasted 15 years  

[lewelma]

Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

I think there’s possibly a difference between general freight and frozen stuff because doesn’t it survive longer at cold temps?

Beats me.  I was really hoping it was the cold storage, because then the index case who worked there is actually the index case and did not get it from the community. But then my neighbor said that would be really bad for our international shipping and would grind that to a halt, which might be a worse situation.  

NZ really learned from Australia's delay.  Within 6 hours of the positive test, they locked down the largest city in the country. Now we wait for 3 days while they investigate, but most people think the lockdown will be extended and likely go nation wide.  Hard and fast.  We can get this done in a month.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, lewelma said:

Beats me.  I was really hoping it was the cold storage, because then the index case who worked there is actually the index case and did not get it from the community. But then my neighbor said that would be really bad for our international shipping and would grind that to a halt, which might be a worse situation.  

NZ really learned from Australia's delay.  Within 6 hours of the positive test, they locked down the largest city in the country. Now we wait for 3 days while they investigate, but most people think the lockdown will be extended and likely go nation wide.  Hard and fast.  We can get this done in a month.

Would NZ be able to be self sufficient without frozen food?  It’s one of those things we tended to dismiss because it was China saying it happened but so many things they claimed regarding spread have proven true.  
 

I suspect if frozen food is an issue it will be a big problem for us in my state as well.  Although presumably if it was a massive driver of spread we’d see more cases from it by now. 

[Ausmumof3]

A possible case of either relapse or reinfection 6 months after and initial infection in China.  Not the most reliable source but wondering if anyone has seen or heard more.
https://www.todayonline.com/world/chinas-jingzhou-city-says-woman-tests-positive-coronavirus-again-after-recovering

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/immuniteit-een-illusie-vrouw-overlijdt-na-tweede-positieve-coronatest~a825db62/
 

and a second case in Netherlands - article is non English. From google translate 

“The woman lived in the Rehoboth nursing home. That is in Heerde, a municipality that was hit hard during the first wave. Roughly a third of Rehoboth's residents died this spring. This resident also tested positive at the time. Last week she got another respiratory infection. She was then tested again for corona, and the result was positive again. She passed away this weekend.”

[Laura Corin]

Interesting BBC programme I saw last night; I don't know how viewable it is elsewhere.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000ljnb/surviving-the-virus-my-brother-me?xtor=CS8-1000-[Discovery_Cards]-[Multi_Site]-[SL02]-[PS_IPLAYER~N~~P_SurvivingtheVirus]

Identical twin doctors - Chris who is a researcher/TV presenter and went back to front-line work for Covid; Xand who works in disaster zones/TV presenting but wanted to help in care homes in the UK.  But the programme did not go as I suspect it was designed to go.  Xand had Covid early in the pandemic - badly but not hospitalised - then started to have heart arrhythmias, admitted to A&E (ER) to have his heart restarted, but had continuing problems thereafter.  The programme ended up being more about a forties-year-old highly-trained professional who could no longer trust himself in the kind of high-responsibility environments for which he was trained.  On the way through, there was filming in a rehabilitation unit that was full of people - including younger people - rehabilitating from Covid-induced strokes. 

I came away with a stronger understanding of how little is actually known still about how the virus affects the body as a whole.

[TracyP]

10 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

I think this is partially a thing really.

Most of us never paid any attention to flu issues. Truth is somewhere between 100 and 200 kids die of the flu each year, and thousands are hospitalized.  Any time anyone is hospitalized for an illness, there is always a possibility of complications and long term impacts.  Whenever anyone is hospitalized with a serious version of any disease (from flu to chicken pox to measles, to whatever else) there is always a risk of complications and life long complications.  

It's just something we rarely pay attention to.  

This is so true. I just talked my mom down yesterday after she called going, "Oh no! Now they say covid can cause a rash. What next!?!?!" And I have to say, "Mom, a rash/hives has always been a side effect of viruses. This is no big deal."

It always takes 3-6 months to recover from pneumonia. This is not new. 

The inflammatory syndrome seen in kids is concerning, but it is only impacting 0.16% of diagnosed covid cases so far (meaning the actual percentage is far lower.) With treatment it is rarely fatal. That risk really needs to be put in perspective.

I hate the way the media is latching onto every worst case story. This is frustrating for so many reasons, but as someone who already struggles with anxiety, my biggest frustration is that it makes my fear of covid out of line with my actual risk. So then I have talk myself down... sigh.

[EmilyGF]

11 minutes ago, TracyP said:

This is so true. I just talked my mom down yesterday after she called going, "Oh no! Now they say covid can cause a rash. What next!?!?!" And I have to say, "Mom, a rash/hives has always been a side effect of viruses. This is no big deal."

It always takes 3-6 months to recover from pneumonia. This is not new. 

The inflammatory syndrome seen in kids is concerning, but it is only impacting 0.16% of diagnosed covid cases so far (meaning the actual percentage is far lower.) With treatment it is rarely fatal. That risk really needs to be put in perspective.

I hate the way the media is latching onto every worst case story. This is frustrating for so many reasons, but as someone who already struggles with anxiety, my biggest frustration is that it makes my fear of covid out of line with my actual risk. So then I have talk myself down... sigh.

I'd suggest listening to actual scientists talk about this. I like the podcast This Week in Virology.

On one hand, some things are overblown by the media (especially scientific articles that haven't yet been refereed). On the other hand, this is a really potent virus with a lot of unknowns and longer term effects. For example, a doctor was talking about how hair loss is being noticed long term in women who recover from COVID. He quipped, "Mask now or wig later." When I listen to scientists talk about it, they include uncertainties, which media doesn't do.

Emily

[TCB]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

But people are reporting post-viral syndromes, which is not the same as long recovery from pneumonia. A lot of those people didn’t have serious pneumonia.

What I’d like to know is how frequent these are. The problem, for me, is that we personally know people like this, which makes it seem less rare.

I think the worrying thing for me is that a number of people taking months to recover, or at least having problems months later as we don’t know enough to know about actually recovering, are people who weren’t severely ill initially and were not hospitalized. My cousin’s friend, mid 20s, wasn’t severely ill with it, didn’t have to even go to the ER, now has sats down to 84% when she exercises. It is a really weird disease.

Now that we are trying not to intubate people I think that in some ways it is more difficult for them, although fantastic that they survive. They sit there for days, coughing and breathing with optiflow tubing stuck up their nose, getting very little sleep because of all the coughing and breathing etc. It is unlike anything I’ve seen before.