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4 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I really enjoyed that link

so so disappointed that Australia didn't do something similar. We had the potential  to eliminate it

I just saw that in NSW restaurants and bars are now going to be open to up to 50 people.  We are sitting only just below R0 of 1.  This seems like a really bad decision.  I’m also depressingly sure that the push to open up sooner came when they started thinking the jobkeeper package was going to be ridiculously expensive.  Well it’s still expensive but much less so than we thought and we could maybe pace ourselves a bit longer.  But the powers that be really don’t want elimination and long term border closures.

Edited by Ausmumof3
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https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-nursing-homes-illinois-20200523-lgfa6k6htvdzpig6n2fa3g7wiq-story.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

NY is doing this too so people can't see nursing home deaths. 

Minnesota is having a serious nursing home problem too. More serious than elsewhere, I mean.

Edited by EmseB
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Imperial College estimates current reproduction numbers greater than 1 for 25 states, page 8.

And local news reports the greatest percentage of ICU beds in use in my county since the coronavirus outbreak began 😞

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf

Edited by Acadie
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15 hours ago, Plum said:

I think this is what you were looking for? 
 

946EFE54-B170-4501-A4E1-E27A45E46696.png

 

Um, why did they skip April 8-20 and then count the 24th through 27th twice??

That is not how to bar graph. I would make DS redo it, if he brought me a math page that looked like that. He's 12.

Edited by whitehawk
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33 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

 

Um, why did they skip April 8-20 and then count the 24th through 27th twice??

That is not how to bar graph. I would make DS redo it, if he brought me a math page that looked like that. He's 12.

Goodness gracious. 

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That's just... ok, do they have interns doing the math? I'm trying to think of a reason an adult would do this. Perhaps if you were very inexperienced with statistics, didn't have a handle on how ethics interact with statistics, and were told the trend was downward? 

Even so. Good grief.  That's so clumsy.

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53 minutes ago, whitehawk said:

 

Um, why did they skip April 8-20 and then count the 24th through 27th twice??

That is not how to bar graph. I would make DS redo it, if he brought me a math page that looked like that. He's 12.

So I don't understand the graph but was it part of a presentation where someone talked about the slide and explained it?

Also, if rolling 7 day totals are being reported, won't there be overlap? Maybe I misunderstand what rolling means, but that might explain at least some of the info.

Edited by EmseB

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1 hour ago, whitehawk said:

 

Um, why did they skip April 8-20 and then count the 24th through 27th twice??

That is not how to bar graph. I would make DS redo it, if he brought me a math page that looked like that. He's 12.

I think this has to do with differing reporting time frames of hospitals in differing states--that they don't simply have data for each day that they are able consistently to add up for a week's worth of hospitalizations.  I can't find the original for this chart.  Does someone have a link to where this chart can be found?

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1 hour ago, whitehawk said:

 

Um, why did they skip April 8-20 and then count the 24th through 27th twice??

That is not how to bar graph. I would make DS redo it, if he brought me a math page that looked like that. He's 12.

Did they hire the person from Georgia who made the graph that had the dates sorted to make the numbers decline?

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4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

image.thumb.jpeg.7c9dbcc0edc92c66b7bea0668ff54425.jpeg

I know one of the people on that list.  Dr. Peter Sakas was an exotics animal vet in Niles, Illinois. He was a fantastic veterinarian. This is a huge, huge loss to the veterinary community there. Everyone knew and respected Dr. Sakas. 😞

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47 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.9news.com/mobile/article/news/local/next/denver-public-health-orders-a-closure-of-facility-that-handles-all-mail-for-colorado-and-wyoming/73-6d22b731-8092-43e3-aeee-f37e69f6da0e
 

mail facility for Colorado and Wyoming has five positive cases.  Lucky we are no longer overly worried about surfaces 

 

Wow.  

 

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11 minutes ago, EmseB said:

In case anyone was interested about the woman in FL who claimed she was fired for not censoring data.

I don't know anything about the person who wrote this, just saw it linked in my feed.

https://polimath.substack.com/p/a-long-one-about-the-florida-data?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

I did get more a disgruntled employee vibe from the Florida lady and thought there might be more to that.  I would like to see more on this because I suspect that wasn’t the full story but this article is using fairly loaded language/assumptions as well making it kind of hard to take at face value.  

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15 hours ago, whitehawk said:

 

Um, why did they skip April 8-20 and then count the 24th through 27th twice??

That is not how to bar graph. I would make DS redo it, if he brought me a math page that looked like that. He's 12.

 

15 hours ago, EmseB said:

So I don't understand the graph but was it part of a presentation where someone talked about the slide and explained it?

Also, if rolling 7 day totals are being reported, won't there be overlap? Maybe I misunderstand what rolling means, but that might explain at least some of the info.

 

14 hours ago, Bootsie said:

I think this has to do with differing reporting time frames of hospitals in differing states--that they don't simply have data for each day that they are able consistently to add up for a week's worth of hospitalizations.  I can't find the original for this chart.  Does someone have a link to where this chart can be found?

Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't online much yesterday. The graph was a screenshot straight out of the WH Press Conference on Friday. Dr. Birx was explaining every slide. This is the only stream I found that showed the slides. And this is exactly why I like to take screenshots and watch the press conferences  

 

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56 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/24/sweden-wrong-not-to-shut-down-says-former-state-epidemiologist?__twitter_impression=true
 

Sweden’s former state epidemiologist is saying maybe they used the wrong strategy.


Ya think? The Guardian had a nice article up asking why Africa’s relative success isn’t getting the play it should.

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On 5/23/2020 at 10:51 AM, EmseB said:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-nursing-homes-illinois-20200523-lgfa6k6htvdzpig6n2fa3g7wiq-story.html?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true

NY is doing this too so people can't see nursing home deaths. 

Minnesota is having a serious nursing home problem too. More serious than elsewhere, I mean.

https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/diseases/covid-19/fatalities_nursing_home_acf.pdf

This seems a bit sketchy, too

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1213141

Trump admin not mandating reporting nursing home deaths pre May 6. 

Edited by Dotwithaperiod

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YouTube is apparently also deleting DrBeen lectures if they don’t fit the media status quo

And Dr Been is very mainline medical status quo himself. 

 

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5 hours ago, Plum said:

 

 

Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't online much yesterday. The graph was a screenshot straight out of the WH Press Conference on Friday. Dr. Birx was explaining every slide. This is the only stream I found that showed the slides. And this is exactly why I like to take screenshots and watch the press conferences  

 

Thank you.

Yeah, no, there was no talk of rolling numbers with regard to that slide, and that would not have been how to show it--it would've been better to omit the two center bars, if no better information was available. But I would have more confidence (for example, that the dates weren't cherry-picked from a time numbers were actually fluctuating up and down) if the bars showed circa March 1 through last week, each starting on the same day of the week. (The bar graph, which she moves quickly past, is at 3:10.)

 

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7 minutes ago, Pen said:

YouTube is apparently also deleting DrBeen lectures if they don’t fit the media status quo

And Dr Been is very mainline medical status quo himself. 

 

I still see lots of his videos available — were there specific topics deleted?

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3 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I still see lots of his videos available — were there specific topics deleted?

 

Apparently so, but I don’t know which.   Someone trying to send me a link told me so—which is why I am using word “apparently “.

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Ugh — so I watched some Dr Been lectures and made the mistake of reading the comments: people saying they bought horse ivermectin to treat themselves, doctors (or at least people who claim to be) saying they have treated patients with ivermectin for CV19 and didn't have good results, people saying there are doctors in FL treating patients with a combo of HCQ, AZ, and Ivermectin, lots of conspiracy theories about how the oligarchs don't want us to know about cheap effective treatments so they can force us to be injected with vaccines, etc.

This is why the FDA is publishing warnings! People should not be dosing themselves with horse wormer, doctors should not be experimenting on patients with combinations of drugs that are either unproven or have been shown to increase the risk of death. Oy, this is so depressing. 😕

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1 hour ago, Sneezyone said:


Ya think? The Guardian had a nice article up asking why Africa’s relative success isn’t getting the play it should.

 

Thanks for mentioning this--I'm in a foul temper today at the state of the world, but this gave me some hope. 

It's a really interesting look at how Senegal and Ghana have employed various strategies like pool testing, contact tracing and traditional herbal remedies to great success. On Senegal's approach, beginning with preparations in January:

"As a result, this nation of 16 million people has had only 30 deaths. Each death has been acknowledged individually by the government, and condolences paid to the family. You can afford to see each death as a person when the numbers are at this level. At every single one of those stages, the UK did the opposite, and is now facing a death toll of more than 35,000."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/21/africa-coronavirus-successes-innovation-europe-us

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I posted a link to a news article about this study the other day, but here is an Israeli study that found that 80% of the country's infections were likely caused by 1-10% of infected people, and here is another study finding that 80% of Hong Kong's infections were likely caused by 20% of infected people.

Israel update; No deaths since Wednesday, daily new cases have been averaging abut 15 for a while  Today was 5.  

Schools have been gradually opening since mid-April and as of last week they were all up and running again.  Kids over 2nd grade have to wear masks and grades are kept separate but classrooms are not socially distanced.  There have been a couple of cases of kindergarten teachers or aides testing positive and then a whole class needing to quarantine/get tested, but so far there have not been significant clusters in schools (knock wood).  Most other things -- with the major exception of restaurants -- are open again, under limitations.  

The general mask requirement remains, although people are definitely getting laxer about wearing them.  And staying 2 meters away from one another was always a very heavy lift for Israelis, so now that the worst of the crisis is past everyone is reverting to the no-personal-space norm.  

The weirdest thing to me, immersed as I am in news from the US, is that coronavirus is no longer the leading news story.   It has been pushed off by other crises, most notably the PM's corruption trial.  Mask-wearing has no political significance here, but from news photos it does appear that somewhere in Israel it is possible to acquire a face mask that says "CRIME MINISTER."

 

Edited by JennyD
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2 hours ago, whitehawk said:

Thank you.

Yeah, no, there was no talk of rolling numbers with regard to that slide, and that would not have been how to show it--it would've been better to omit the two center bars, if no better information was available. But I would have more confidence (for example, that the dates weren't cherry-picked from a time numbers were actually fluctuating up and down) if the bars showed circa March 1 through last week, each starting on the same day of the week. (The bar graph, which she moves quickly past, is at 3:10.)

 

Unbelievable.  At least in normal times, it should be unbelievable.

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4 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Ugh — so I watched some Dr Been lectures and made the mistake of reading the comments: people saying they bought horse ivermectin to treat themselves, doctors (or at least people who claim to be) saying they have treated patients with ivermectin for CV19 and didn't have good results, people saying there are doctors in FL treating patients with a combo of HCQ, AZ, and Ivermectin, lots of conspiracy theories about how the oligarchs don't want us to know about cheap effective treatments so they can force us to be injected with vaccines, etc.

This is why the FDA is publishing warnings! People should not be dosing themselves with horse wormer, doctors should not be experimenting on patients with combinations of drugs that are either unproven or have been shown to increase the risk of death. Oy, this is so depressing. 😕

 

I put confused emoji “like” but am not actually confused—just has the best visual expression. 

I don’t usually read comments areas.  Occasionally I do and see something helpful, but often  they are depressing. 

Sometimes I have seen all sorts of ugly vile spewing of hatred as well on various comments and open chat areas. 

John Campbell had an open chat video once that had tons of horrid comments on it.  People wishing death to various groups or individuals they don’t like etc etc etc.  I turned off the live feed! And after that have been reluctant to look at comments on any YouTube videos.  😟

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2 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I put confused emoji “like” but am not actually confused—just has the best visual expression. 

I don’t usually read comments areas.  Occasionally I do and see something helpful, but often  they are depressing. 

Sometimes I have seen all sorts of ugly vile spewing of hatred as well on various comments and open chat areas. 

John Campbell had an open chat video once that had tons of horrid comments on it.  People wishing death to various groups or individuals they don’t like etc etc etc.  I turned off the live feed! And after that have been reluctant to look at comments on any YouTube videos.  😟

Lol yes the confused emoji is quite versatile!

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7 hours ago, whitehawk said:

Thank you.

Yeah, no, there was no talk of rolling numbers with regard to that slide, and that would not have been how to show it--it would've been better to omit the two center bars, if no better information was available. But I would have more confidence (for example, that the dates weren't cherry-picked from a time numbers were actually fluctuating up and down) if the bars showed circa March 1 through last week, each starting on the same day of the week. (The bar graph, which she moves quickly past, is at 3:10.)

 

It does seem to be a bizarre way to present the information.  It looks as if there were probably a 7-day moving average being calculated (which would help smooth erratic data--especially when there may be lower reporting on weekends and holidays).  But, it would seem much more logical to show a line graph of that moving average than present the data using a bar graph.  The only time that I could imagine putting that info in a bar graph is when there is something that you really want to highlight on some specific days--which isn't done in her verbal analysis.  It looks as if the chart was taken out of context and now not fully explained.  I haven't watched the entire briefing, but my general impression is that going through fewer slides with data presented in a much better way would be more meaningful

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Worldometer has world cases have just passed 5.5 million.  
 

Belgium deaths per million people population wide passed 800. 
 

US looks set to pass 100,000 deaths tomorrow.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I heard that an animal trial on rabbits didn't go well either. All the rabbits died. I cannot post link though. I heard it from a non internet source

 

Rabbits are currently having some other thing rabbit virus happening and dying in large numbers from that aren’t they?   (Maybe good in Australia with too many rabbits? idk) but not sure rabbits are currently reliable indicators

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24 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Rabbits are currently having some other thing rabbit virus happening and dying in large numbers from that aren’t they?   (Maybe good in Australia with too many rabbits? idk) but not sure rabbits are currently reliable indicators

the coronavirus vaccination trial that resulted in all the rabbits dying wasn't in Australia

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

Bummer.

Oxford vaccine trials not going well.  Monkeys got infected despite vaccination. 

https://www.trialsitenews.com/did-oxfords-covid-19-vaccine-fail-some-troubling-questions-about-chadox1/

Also possibly troubling - did they develop antibodies but still get infected?

is that a bad sign, more generally?

 

I'm a bit concerned about the much-hyped Moderna vaccine trials, too. Their press release generated a lot of buzz, but they haven't actually released much data. There was an article about it in STAT, pointing out that despite announcing that 100% of the 45 subjects developed antibodies, only 8 of those 45 developed the type of "neutralizing antibodies" that really count.  Moderna has also refused to quantify the level of antibodies, only stating that the levels were "on par" with levels seen in patients who recovered from the disease, but the levels of antibodies in recovered patients have ranged from zero (no antibodies present) to very high levels. So although the press release trumpeted the fact that "100% of test subjects developed antibodies," all we really know is that 8 developed neutralizing antibodies at a level greater than zero.

And coincidently (or not) several top execs at Moderna sold stock worth millions of dollars when the price shot up based on their positive results.

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1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

the coronavirus vaccination trial that resulted in all the rabbits dying wasn't in Australia

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/deadly-virus-killing-wild-rabbits-north-america

this says wild, but I heard all rabbits. Wild, domestic, Lab, and also hares.  And heard it was a pandemic, not just North America.

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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

 

I'm a bit concerned about the much-hyped Moderna vaccine trials, too. Their press release generated a lot of buzz, but they haven't actually released much data. There was an article about it in STAT, pointing out that despite announcing that 100% of the 45 subjects developed antibodies, only 8 of those 45 developed the type of "neutralizing antibodies" that really count.  Moderna has also refused to quantify the level of antibodies, only stating that the levels were "on par" with levels seen in patients who recovered from the disease, but the levels of antibodies in recovered patients have ranged from zero (no antibodies present) to very high levels. So although the press release trumpeted the fact that "100% of test subjects developed antibodies," all we really know is that 8 developed neutralizing antibodies at a level greater than zero.

And coincidently (or not) several top execs at Moderna sold stock worth millions of dollars when the price shot up based on their positive results.

I haven’t read in detail but I have seen several posts skeptical 

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https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-05-24/covid-19-patients-not-infectious-after-11-days-singapore-study?__twitter_impression=true
 

very positive!   A study from Singapore says that COVID patients aren’t infectious after around 11 days of being ill.  If this can be verified it would be fabulous for people who are currently having to isolate for long periods due to not getting a negative test result.  

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3 hours ago, Pen said:

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/deadly-virus-killing-wild-rabbits-north-america

this says wild, but I heard all rabbits. Wild, domestic, Lab, and also hares.  And heard it was a pandemic, not just North America.

Oh I hadn't hear about that.  I thought it was rabbits in a cornoavirus  vaccine lab trial that died, but now I am wondering if the person who told me was referring to this other virus killing rabbits  

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Night time Questions:

SARS2 virus is supposed to share 96% of its DNA with a bat virus that was studied at the Wuhan lab. ? 

How close is that in virus terms?

 

Humans share around 98% DNA with some other primates, it is now thought?

Humans and chimps share a surprising 98.8 percent of their DNA. How can we be so similar--and yet so different? So Much Alike... Human and chimp DNA is so ...
 
 
So, um, the SARS2 virus is more different from the bat virus it supposedly jumped from a few months ago than humans are from chimpanzees. 
 
 
Is that a tinier difference in virus terms and expected in a very short time as a natural virus mutation? 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Pen said:

Night time Questions:

SARS2 virus is supposed to share 96% of its DNA with a bat virus that was studied at the Wuhan lab. ? 

How close is that in virus terms?

 

Humans share around 98% DNA with some other primates, it is now thought?

Humans and chimps share a surprising 98.8 percent of their DNA. How can we be so similar--and yet so different? So Much Alike... Human and chimp DNA is so ...
 
 
So, um, the SARS2 virus is more different from the bat virus it supposedly jumped from a few months ago than humans are from chimpanzees. 
 
 
Is that a tinier difference in virus terms and expected in a very short time as a natural virus mutation? 
 

 

I don’t know.  I think I saw it was around 80 similar to SARS for comparison.

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I don’t know.  I think I saw it was around 80 similar to SARS for comparison.

 

Hmm . Kind of like people and dogs. 

 

Humans are most closely related to the great apes of the family Hominidae. ... Humans and dogs share 84 percent of their DNA, which again, makes them useful...
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10 hours ago, StellaM said:

Good mental health news - no discernible rise in suicide as a result of the pandemic in AU so far.

 

I'm only popping in for a minute, but want to say that I appreciate this thread.

 

And to add to @StellaM's good mental health news, in the Netherlands there is a 20% reduction in suicides at the moment. Nobody can explain it, but I'm happy about it.

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Does anyone have a link to the recent suicide rate in the US. I guess I’m not great at googling because I just can’t seem to find recent figures.

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16 hours ago, Pen said:

Bummer.

Oxford vaccine trials not going well.  Monkeys got infected despite vaccination. 

https://www.trialsitenews.com/did-oxfords-covid-19-vaccine-fail-some-troubling-questions-about-chadox1/

 

 

Also possibly troubling - did they develop antibodies but still get infected?

 

is that a bad sign, more generally?

 

Is this legit? I can't find info anywhere else. Hoping it's not quite as bad as the article said...

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