wuhan - coronavirus

[EmseB]

57 minutes ago, square_25 said:

If it really is crossover immunity, then you might expect parents of school-aged children to on average have milder cases. Anyone know if that's true? 

I have been wondering this ever since it has been said that antibody tests were likely to give false positives because of cross-reactivity to other coronaviruses. I have gotten every cold under the sun from my older 4 kids these past 5 years or so, so it would be nice if one of them was a coronavirus.

The literature I have read, though, has also said that we have more ACE2 receptors as we age and that's what coronaviruses latch onto, so older people can still get hit worse.

Keep in mind I really know nothing about ace2 receptors or any of this, but it's just what I've read.

But I've had the exact question in my mind for awhile now. But that seems like teachers and daycare workers would also be lower risk then as well.

[TracyP]

Convalescent plasma is looking promising. I can't access the article but Mayo Clinic twitter feed says it is reducing mortality rate by about 50%

https://mobile.twitter.com/MayoClinic/status/1291031413156917251

[TracyP]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

If it really is crossover immunity, then you might expect parents of school-aged children to on average have milder cases. Anyone know if that's true? 

I'd love to see this looked into further. I've been wondering the same thing.

[Pen]

54 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

Latest Been video touches on crossover immunity ...   

 

 

just below the cutoff of above drawing— on the children side is that young children (not infants) have better cross reactive immunity 

 

 

Also, the following two videos have some more related to cross immunity — both are a couple of months old, which in SARS2 time is 

a long time with much more known now

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quoting myself because I had added more links before page change 

[Pen]

Current, on live—seems excellent 

Dr Been interviews Dr Yo (who often is himself interviewing other people)—they cover most of the main CV19 issues as of now.  Medicines, masks, school, RCT, ...

 

https://youtu.be/vnVw4tA3TQ4

 

https://youtu.be/

 

 

It was apparently overwhelmed and I lost the feed, so I’ll finish it later.  

I highly recommend it. 

 

Edited August 6, 2020 by Pen

[vmsurbat1]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

An excellent article about what we know about COVID-19 immunity so far, by Ed Yong: 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/covid-19-immunity-is-the-pandemics-central-mystery/614956/

What a great article!  Both readable and informative.  Thank you for sharing.  I've already passed that link on to several people....

 

[Ausmumof3]

We had another case linked to the school earlier this week.  It’s an adult re entry college.  So there was a returned traveller isolating in a hotel, a cleaner got it and attended two schools now there’s one or two cases linked to the school.  The school has been shut down and all staff and students asked to self isolate.  70 close contacts of the case are being quarantined in medi-hotels.  

[vmsurbat1]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Thanks! I’ve read that his science writing is stellar, so I’ve been trying to follow it. I haven’t been disappointed.

Double thanks for this!  It never occurred to me to follow the author (as opposed to The Atlantic).  I've been searching his name on google and am thrilled to find a sane, scientific, thoughtful voice in the midst of this pandemic.  Did you read this interview with him?  Ed Yong names some other science writers that he follows.....

[Pen]

20 hours ago, square_25 said:

An excellent article about what we know about COVID-19 immunity so far, by Ed Yong: 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/covid-19-immunity-is-the-pandemics-central-mystery/614956/

 

That’s a good basic intro and very readable!

 

I want to add an aspect he did not mention, which is that part of the innate immune system includes barriers to pathogens even reaching the cells of epithelium.  This is a stage Before the part he describes with messenger cells presenting antigens.

One important part of this is the mucous protective lining and mucociliary clearance parts of innate immune system .  

Absent a problem like CF, kids in the age range that tend to do better with CV19 May  have better functionality of the protective mucociliary system than older adults. And this could be another protective feature for younger school age children along with better innate immunity past the barrier stage, fewer comorbid conditions, and fewer nasal ACE2 receptors

[Bambam]

Possible new treatment:
https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/08/05/houston-methodist-reports-rapid-recovery-of-covid-19-patients-with-new-drug/

"According to a press release from the drug maker NeuroRX, independent researchers have reported that aviptadil blocked replication of the SARS coronavirus in human lung cells and monocytes."

[Ausmumof3]

I’m finding it difficult right now.  We are getting more invites out and about and I’m not keen to add anything extra onto our outdoor stuff but I feel like that sounds kinda paranoid.  Only dhs career change is looking like its possibly happening in three weeks and he needs to not get sick in that time.  If he gets sick it may be off the cards indefinitely.  So I’m making lots of polite excuses and I really suck at that kind of thing!

[Laura Corin]

These are the 'Black Box' tests I was talking about a few days ago

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53632043

'There is currently no publicly available data on the accuracy of the new tests.

But Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, who has been advising the government on tests, said they produced the same "sensitivity" as the current lab-based tests.'

[TracyP]

@EmseB @square_25 

Thinking about the crossover immunity from other coronaviruses... I wonder if this is where some of the "kids don't spread covid" as easily information could be coming from. It could be that they do transmit the virus just as easily as anyone BUT the population they have the most contact with (other kids, parents of young children, teachers) have a certain amount of immunity already. This all needs to be looked at further, but it would help explain why outbreaks seem less likely with young kids. 

[TracyP]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Then we’re about to have tons of asymptomatic vectors as schools open? 😕 

Yeah, that theory would definitely make that likely wouldn't it? 

[Pen]

 

 

Are any of you following SARS-COV-2 attachment to CD147 receptors?

 

 

[Pen]

 

@ElizabethB @Ausmumof3 possibly of interest 

 

https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/overlooked-receptors-could-explain-quirks-of-covid-19-that-ace2-alone-cannot-9470817f59d0

 

 

Edited August 7, 2020 by Pen

[Bambam]

This just doesn't make sense to me:

"What Barnett came up with was that we have about a 1/4300 chance of getting Covid-19 on a full 2-hour flight — that is, about 1 in 4300 passengers will pick up the virus, on average. The odds of getting the virus are about half that, 1/7700, if airlines leave the middle seat empty. He’s posted his results as a not-yet-peer-reviewed preprint."

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-05/is-it-safe-to-fly-here-are-the-odds-of-catching-covid-on-a-plane

[Pen]

 

Ivermectin (Australian TV report)

 

https://youtu.be/F6A6RFDprIs

[Pen]

Scientific American weekly round up

 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coronavirus-news-roundup-august-1-august-7/

 

 

[sangtarah]

Missionaries in the Dominican Republic shared with our church that the Dominican Republic is giving kits to those infected with Covid-19. They are saying it's 95% effective. If 95% of people usually recover, how do you know to attribute it to this combination of medication/supplements or just them getting over it?

[RootAnn]

8 minutes ago, sangtarah said:

 

Does anyone else find it strange that everything had a dosage except the Vitamin D?

[Teaching3bears]

The WHO is saying in recent days that the number if cases in young people is going up substantially and the number of cases in children is also increasing.

[Pen]

 

 

Quote

 

There have now been some excellent irl reports on Ivermectin—some have compared to HCQ which will probably not impress you if you are against HCQ, but generally conclusion seems to be that HCQ used correctly I’d effective and Ivermectin used correctly is even better.  (Except if we have contraindications for Ivermectin, but not for HCQ or something like that...) 

I’m not sure about the omeprazol Logic—maybe it is to substitute for HCQ ability to create a more basic environment.  

Otherwise the group makes a lot of sense from what I have read.  And imo, first world countries should have kits along those lines too .   Not be going with a Stay Home and if you are sick enough for the hospital then get many thousand dollars per day treatments.

And that imo is a key difference . 

 

Many People report feeling much better with proper HCQ or Ivermectin etc treatment, fairly quickly in what seems to be clear response to the treatment.   Unlike HCQ which is needed at prophylactic to very very early stage, Ivermectin seems to be successful later, though the earlier it is used the better.

 

Most people get over really bad headaches without any treatment right?  If you have a really bad headache and you feel better after a Tylenol or some other medicine how do you know it helped versus just the chance of most people recovering anyway?  This is the way people I know have described knowing that they were helped. 

 

ETA — also it may be lacking a zinc ionophore...   unless maybe people’s diets in that area already supply that. 

Edited August 8, 2020 by Pen

[matrips]

40 minutes ago, sangtarah said:

Missionaries in the Dominican Republic shared with our church that the Dominican Republic is giving kits to those infected with Covid-19. They are saying it's 95% effective. If 95% of people usually recover, how do you know to attribute it to this combination of medication/supplements or just them getting over it?

That’s true of flu vaccines as well though isn't it?  Did it prevent the flu or wouldn’t you have gotten it anyway.  No one knows.  But if the meds help that percentage of time, it’s worth taking.  I do think there is a lot of success people are having with very early treatment.

[matrips]

3 minutes ago, Pen said:

I’m not sure about the omeprazol Logic—maybe it is to substitute for HCQ ability to create a more basic environment.  

I don’t know about that either.  Some say that med creates a safe environment for the virus, so that seems at odds.

[matrips]

Are doctors and public health offices and local governments  publishing any of the protocols that may help?  I only see it on here and not out in public.  Seems like doctors or urgent cares or food banks could be distribution points for vitamin d and zinc and such.  Cheaper in the long run.

[Pen]

19 minutes ago, matrips said:

I don’t know about that either.  Some say that med creates a safe environment for the virus, so that seems at odds.

 

Yes. I have seen Omeprazole as something that increases risk from CV19.  I think it may be an error to have that as part of the kit.    Famotidine possibly was found helpful and has been on recent MATH as optional. 

Maybe if the doctor listed is looked up it would explain more.  

 

[Pen]

On 8/4/2020 at 2:34 PM, ElizabethB said:

Panama stopped because of the Lancet study, then started again a bit after its retraction. It's evidently also political in Brazil, I haven't really been able to figure out Brazil. Most countries I don't think it's political, especially countries that traditionally use a lot of it.

 

It is not actually clear what is happening on the ground irl.  

 

Apparently the US media, FDA, Fauci etc have caused people in many places to be afraid of HCQ.

Despite a long Safety history. 

 

It is technically legal in USA (though for early CV (when needed) not in all/most states), but extremely difficult for “ordinary” people to get it.  That may also be true in other countries like Panama as well.   

@ElizabethB

 

ETA:

So we very likely can’t take a date of “becoming legal again”, nor public announcement of it becoming legal again  as meaning that it necessarily was back in use. Maybe it was, maybe a lot of people stopped and then as soon as they realized they could legally do so, started again, but maybe not.

 

If you are interested I could possibly pm you some links to look at.   

 

Edited August 8, 2020 by Pen

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

It is not actually clear what is happening on the ground irl.  

 

Apparently the US media, FDA, Fauci etc have caused people in many places to be afraid of HCQ.

Despite a long Safety history. 

 

It is technically legal in USA (though for early CV (when needed) not in all/most states), but extremely difficult for “ordinary” people to get it.  That may also be true in other countries like Panama as well.   

 

 

Just because a medication has a proven safety record in some circumstances does not necessarily mean it is safe in all situations. Also, prolonged QT interval is a very real thing, and has very real dangers. We just had to take someone off Zithromax yesterday because their QT was prolonged. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

9 minutes ago, square_25 said:

What's a QT interval? 

It's an electrical measurement of your heart.  So the interval between the Q wave to the end of the T wave. 

[TCB]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

What's a QT interval? 

It is the time when your ventricle depolarizes and repolarizes and is represented on the ECG from the Q wave until the end of the T wave. During this time it is dangerous for another beat to occur because it can send your heart into a dangerous rhythm like ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation. Some medications have the side effect of causing this interval to be prolonged and when it is your risk of a beat falling at the wrong time is much increased.

[Pen]

23 hours ago, matrips said:

Are doctors

Very little in USA.  

A few are available as to protocols, but other than the OTC supplement parts still legal here we mostly can’t get the items indicated.

It will probably be my next write my elected and appointed representatives letter writing concern 

 

Quote

and public health offices and local governments  publishing any of the protocols that may help?

To best of my knowledge, public health and local governments are following CDC, FDA, WHO, etc., so the current protocol seems (at least in my area) to have people stay home and weather it as best they can, unless breathing support is needed in which case it potentially transfers into  hospital care, and potentially pharmaceuticals. Unfortunately by the time there is already lung involvement or hypoxia, it is a largely too late point for some of the less expensive and less invasive potentially helpful options like HCQ by then to help much.  

 

Quote

 I only see it on here and not out in public.  Seems like doctors or urgent cares or food banks could be distribution points for vitamin d and zinc and such.  

 

That’s an interesting idea. 

 

Quote

Cheaper in the long run.

 

I think cheaper in long run is probably not the goal of WHO, FDA, CDC, etc...   and I am pretty sure it is not the goal of pharmaceutical companies. 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Pen

[lewelma]

I feel funny posting in this thread now.  Sort of out of the loop and in a different world.  But today we reach 100 days of no Covid. Our government not only eliminated it, but actually has kept it out. Right now they are preparing for an accidental break in quarantine, so that we can respond faster and more effectively than Australia did. Apparently, they have bought enough masks to be able to distribute them to any localities with outbreaks, so people can mask ASAP and not wait even a few days to buy/make one. 

[Pen]

22 minutes ago, lewelma said:

I feel funny posting in this thread now.  Sort of out of the loop and in a different world.  But today we reach 100 days of no Covid. Our government not only eliminated it, but actually has kept it out. Right now they are preparing for an accidental break in quarantine, so that we can respond faster and more effectively than Australia did. Apparently, they have bought enough masks to be able to distribute them to any localities with outbreaks, so people can mask ASAP and not wait even a few days to buy/make one. 

 

I am extremely happy for NZ!!! 

 

[Ausmumof3]

Brazil passed 100,000 deaths yesterday.

[Pen]

Dr Been expresses his frustration with WHO and does a “performance review “

 

https://youtu.be/LOHtpFATzlI

https://youtu.be/LOHtpFATzlI

 

 

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Pen
Link troubles

[Ausmumof3]

Us deaths look like they are on the way back down a little after cases now looking at the rolling average.  Apparently Texas percent positive is heading upward again but everywhere else seems to be better.

melbournes 7 day rolling average was back under 500 today.  Highest day for deaths at 17.

[Ausmumof3]

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2769322
 

seroprevalance study on health care workers in NYC (approx 13pc)  
 

 

[Ausmumof3]

3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Interesting. I remember Cuomo releasing this data a while ago. I wish we could test their T-cells, too, so we could see how many were actually exposed... 

I haven’t read the whole study but I think there’s something about the percentage who’d had a positive PCR but negative for antibodies now . (6pc??). But I need to sign up to get access to the full thing and it’s 11 o’clock so really a job for tomorrow when my brains working again

[Pen]

I found the chart below interesting in terms of showing PCR SARS2 tests results from nasopharyngeal swabs over seven days — sometimes positive sometimes negative .  I don’t know how much that correlates to viral shedding and potential infectiousness.

The top 4 lines were Asymptomatic 10-14 year olds, btw.   Iirc top and 4th line were both 10 year olds,  line 2 a 12yo, line 3 a 14 yo.

Most or all the rest were adults.  Most were symptomatic. Some with only upper respiratory and some with lower respiratory involvement also. 

 

[The purpose of results were for comparison of treatment groups, but I think it is interesting just for the fluctuations in PCR results.  

 

Each line is another patient, D0 is the initial test day (or hospitalization without test perhaps in a few cases), D1 is the first day of treatment (or no treatment if an Asymptomatic control patient not getting treatment), D2 the second day of treatment etc.   The dark black horizontal lines divide 3 treatments being tried.   I think “ND” is probably test not done that day rather than viral rna not detected.]

 

 

Edited August 9, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

7 hours ago, square_25 said:

Interesting. I remember Cuomo releasing this data a while ago. I wish we could test their T-cells, too, so we could see how many were actually exposed... 

“Overall, 5523 of 40 329 (13.7% [95% CI, 13.4%-14.0%]) HCP were seropositive. Of 6078 with previous PCR testing, 2186 (34.8%) were PCR positive. Of these PCR-positive HCP, 2044 (93.5%) were also seropositive, leaving 142 (6.5%) with nega- tive antibody test results. Of the 3892 PCR-negative HCP, 3490 (89.7%) were also seronegative. Of 34 251 with no PCR test- ing, 3077 (9.0%) were seropositive (Table 2).”

[73349]

On 8/7/2020 at 6:49 PM, square_25 said:

Yeah, these numbers are just pointless without knowing what assumptions he's making. Also, frankly, flying isn't just being on the plane, it's also about being in airports in security lines. 

And in the airport bathroom, in the taxi or shuttle or at the rental counter, and often a hotel lobby, and a restaurant... The odds definitely aren't equal for all locations. Departing from Houston? Richmond? Pittsburgh? And where is it going to? People on a plane to Boston have heard that you need a recent negative test in hand to avoid a 14-day quarantine, so the odds of a maybe-infected person flying should be lower. People on a plane to Orlando, not so much.

[Ausmumof3]

Vic deaths at 19 but cases 322 so down below 400.  R0 down to .99 so hopefully we’re on the way down 

Edited August 10, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

World passed 20,000,000 cases.  

[Kanin]

Here's a new report about cases in children, from the  American Academy of Pediatrics and the Children’s Hospital Association: https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP and CHA - Children and COVID-19 State Data Report 7.30.20 FINAL.pdf

[Kanin]

13 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Am I reading the tables right, that less than 100 kids have died of Covid?

I think so. 

[Acadie]

On 8/8/2020 at 6:02 PM, lewelma said:

I feel funny posting in this thread now.  Sort of out of the loop and in a different world.  But today we reach 100 days of no Covid. 

 

I appreciate your posting and would welcome any further updates. It's really important for Americans to hear it doesn't have to be the way it is here in the US, that there has been enormous and unnecessary loss of life, wellbeing, and economic stability--and that we could still turn things around.

[Matryoshka]

16 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Vic deaths at 19 but cases 322 so down below 400.  R0 down to .99 so hopefully we’re on the way down 

So, my dd19 has been doing a remote internship with a small company in Melbourne.  Her boss was AWOL for the past week.  Yep, she has Covid.  Fortunately, she's still just at home quarantining, so hopefully it will remain a mild case - she's young.

[Pen]

39 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

Wow, that's such a low number!

 

The child mortality rate from SARS2 is low so far.  Though if child cases rise, deaths also will rise even with a less than 0.3% cfr for children. We don’t yet know what long term problems there may be.  Transmission to adults who are more likely to have severe cases is a likely problem.  Currently last I read there are around 400 children in ICUs in USA due to CV19.  Most should recover meaning not die.  

We don’t know if they (or even much less sick kids) will have long term problems. Very likely at least some will have long term problems. 

 

[JennyD]

1 hour ago, happysmileylady said:

Wow, that's such a low number!

The fact that children are mostly spared the worst consequences is the great mercy of this virus.

One commentator I read called this a "starter pandemic.  There are much, much worse pathogens than SARS-COV-2 out there.   And that doesn't even include engineered pathogens.

In an ideal world, we'd learn from this pandemic and be (much) better prepared for the next one.