wuhan - coronavirus

[RootAnn]

37 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

 A few thoughts:

1. I'm glad (perhaps only in this one instance) that China is an authoritarian regime with strong central control.  This is a time when it's good to be able to impose travel bans, curfews, etc.

Except I saw a report that half of the population of Wuhan is gone. So, some would have already left & quite a few more (million) got out before the crackdown?

Edited January 28, 2020 by RootAnn

[Renai]

22 minutes ago, Farrar said:

There have been plenty of human to human transmissions. The thing that was alarming was that people were saying it was transmitted during incubation, which is different from SARS and MERS and most corona viruses apparently. And it would mean all the methods of tracking the disease aren't sufficient. The Chinese government says it can be transmitted during incubation. The WHO and other leading groups say, um, we don't think so, but they're clearly unsure.

Why not err on the side of caution? And what in the world would that (caution) look like if it's transmittable during incubation?

[BeachGal]

Asymptomatic transmission is definitely concerning. Der Spiegel wrote about the case in Germany. The German man caught it during a training session on January 21st. The seminar leader was from Shanghai. She was exposed to the virus when she met days earlier in China with her parents, who are from Wuhan.

I don't know. We'll have to wait and see what happens.

 

Edited January 28, 2020 by BeachGal

[Katy]

So I was googling the other night when I couldn't sleep.  I didn't save the links but the reports about a year ago aren't about this particular new coronavirus, they're about other coronaviruses.  SARS was one, MERS was one.  All three strains are from bats. 

There was an American lab working with a lab in Wuhan on research on corona viruses that discovered last summer that for some reason bat corona viruses don't need to be mutated to be transmissible to humans. I don't really understand the full implications of that but for some reason American scientists were horrified that the information and banned the American lab from working on the research any more.  This is also where the conspiracy that the disease was man made and leaked from the lab in Wuhan came from.  I suppose any number of people could use that information to create a bioweapon, but I suspect it would be difficult to distribute.  I think it's more likely that the market in Wuhan had a bat colony living somewhere in it, and where there are bats there are droppings and live viruses.  Touch anything with the virus on it, and then touch your face and you'll get infected.

And the concept that the N95 masks don't stop the virus is sort of correct.  A virus is smaller than the holes in the mask.  But at this point they are assuming the virus isn't airborne but is droplet, like other colds or the flu. And if you get hospitalized for the flu, the nurses go in with face masks and paper gowns and paper booties because droplets mean it is spread in mucous.  So if you cough or sneeze, little droplets of snot or saliva contain the virus.  Or if your toilet flushes, little bits of water droplets that get splashed into the air will contain the virus.  But it doesn't float around indefinitely, it only goes about 6 feet and then falls to land on whatever surface is down.  So most transmission of the flu isn't something you breathe in, it's from touching a dirty surface with the virus and then touching a mucous membrane on your own body.  In theory if someone sneezed or coughed in your face, or if you were in a crowded restroom and breathed at the wrong moment when there was a fine spray in the air from flushing a toilet you could get it, but over all that is unlikely.  So stopping you from touching your face does help.  Even using a scarf could help. Still, at this point you are more likely to catch the flu.  And if you're considering sewing a fabric mask you should make many because re-wearing the same one daily would likely make mold spores grow, which is much more likely to make you sick than the virus.

I don't think they really think the incubation/infectious period before symptoms is 14 days, I think that number came from an abundance of caution because they have no idea how long it might be.  They definitely think it has mutated to become more infectious.

There are many youtube videos of people in Wuhan who are saying the numbers are way too low.  One nurse from 3 days ago said something like 19,000 people had asked to be tested.  There's also a very good video from CBC (Canada) with a doctor that said the numbers might be legitimately low becase Wuhan ran out of tests.  So the "official" number is only for the number of tests that they had.  Actually that whole video was pretty good.  I'll try to find it and share it below.

I also saw a couple comments on YouTube videos that said they think the virus has been circulating there for several months because the death tolls have been way up, but they think it was misdiagnosed as the flu previously.  But who knows how accurate that is, or if it was just some trolls.

[Katy]

Here's the (very long) video I found most helpful: 

 

[Farrar]

1 hour ago, Renai said:

Why not err on the side of caution? And what in the world would that (caution) look like if it's transmittable during incubation?

I'm far from an expert, but I think it just makes it infinitely more difficult to track. And once you're talking about people with no clue they could have been exposed then it gets nigh on impossible unless the whole world just stops. I mean... go to the shop where the virus isn't spreading really yet, touch something someone else touched, rub your eye thoughtlessly then a week later, you're still not showing symptoms, have zero clue you might have been exposed, and you then pass the virus on to a bunch of other people. And so on and so forth.

That's such a different scenario from starting to feel sick and then knowing you must quarantine if you might have been exposed. Even if you don't actually do it, it's still much easier to track who you might have been in contact with.

Health officials in China are certainly acting like they believe it's transmissible in incubation. But who knows. Health officials here say that would be very unusual for a corona virus of this type. But I don't know anything more than that.

[BeachGal]

Toward the end of today's CDC press briefing, Drs. Redfield and Fauci at the CDC had this to say when asked about asymptomatic carriers and outbreaks:

Reporter's question: (48:50)

Quote

There seems to be perhaps a conflict between US and Chinese authorities on whether or not this disease is contagious before symptoms appear. What is the CDC saying?

 

Redfield's response (49:00)

Quote

The Chinese have reported evidence of transmission in the asymptomatic phase based on data that they have reviewed. CDC has not been given the opportunity to review that [PRC] data so when we say, what we say is we haven't been able to confirm -- by data -- the impact of transmission during the asymptomatic phase. The Chinese believe they have that data so this is again our hope as we could get more directly involved in China to be able to review and be more definitive. We have a limited experience here as Dr. Messonier said -- five cases. We're evaluating now a number of contacts. In the contacts of those evaluations we are trying to address this issue: is there any evidence of shedding of the virus in any of these contacts before. What we're going to present is the data that we have but we're not necessarily going to affirm someone else's interpretation so that's why you see differences. We haven't seen that data, and can't confirm that conclusion.

 

Fauci's response (50:10)

Quote

To just add one thing that seems to get lost in that question is that as Bob said, and I agree, we would really like to see the [PRC] data because if there is asymptomatic transmission it impacts certain policies eventually regarding screening, etcetera. But the one thing historically people need to realize -- that even if there is some asymptomatic transmission -- in all the history of respiratory borne viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks. The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person, even if there’s a rare asymptomatic person that might transit. An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers. "

 

After that, a reporter mentions that WHO announced that China now will accept international help.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DO91C3KvSo

 

 

[Lanny]

5 hours ago, Pen said:

Supposed to be “Wednesday” I think.  Presumably tomorrow my time, but internationally days can get confusing. 

 

Yes. I read, approximately 2 hours ago, that they are hoping the aircraft can depart from Wuhan on Wednesday morning, China time. That's Tuesday night in the USA. For example, we are on E.S.T. (UTC -5) and there is approximately 12 or 13 hours time change between here and China. So, God willing, the aircraft will depart from Wuhan tonight (USA and Colombia time).

They will fly from Wuhan to Anchorage, AK so the aircraft can be refueled and serviced and so that everyone on the aircraft can be checked and doubled checked, before they fly to the "lower 48".

The  final destination is Ontario, CA and if I assume they will be checked and doubled checked, and, possibly, quarantined.

[Tree Frog]

All the talk about masks has me curious. I wear glasses. Every time I've worn a mask, my glasses fog up and I can't see, so I end up putting the mask over my mouth and not my nose. Has there been a mask developed that people who wear glasses can use?

[Ausmumof3]

4 minutes ago, wilrunner said:

All the talk about masks has me curious. I wear glasses. Every time I've worn a mask, my glasses fog up and I can't see, so I end up putting the mask over my mouth and not my nose. Has there been a mask developed that people who wear glasses can use?

It’s possibly transmissible through the eyes even with masks.  Videos of people from Wuhan now they are wearing goggles.

 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Farrar said:

I'm far from an expert, but I think it just makes it infinitely more difficult to track. And once you're talking about people with no clue they could have been exposed then it gets nigh on impossible unless the whole world just stops. I mean... go to the shop where the virus isn't spreading really yet, touch something someone else touched, rub your eye thoughtlessly then a week later, you're still not showing symptoms, have zero clue you might have been exposed, and you then pass the virus on to a bunch of other people. And so on and so forth.

That's such a different scenario from starting to feel sick and then knowing you must quarantine if you might have been exposed. Even if you don't actually do it, it's still much easier to track who you might have been in contact with.

Health officials in China are certainly acting like they believe it's transmissible in incubation. But who knows. Health officials here say that would be very unusual for a corona virus of this type. But I don't know anything more than that.

The case in Germany was supposed to be transmitted by a business colleague from China who wasn’t showing symptoms before coming to Germany but developed them after leaving I think.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-germany-idUSKBN1ZR057
 

Edited January 28, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

Australian scientists have managed to grow it in a lab environment meaning they have it available for testing vaccines etc.

they are now advising against unnecessary travel to China here.

apparently it’s difficult for Australia to organise an evacuation due to the fact we don’t have consular assistance available in Wuhan.  
 

Edited January 28, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Tree Frog]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It’s possibly transmissible through the eyes even with masks.  Videos of people from Wuhan now they are wearing goggles.

 

I guess my glasses might be beneficial then for something other than letting me see. 

[mom2scouts]

I live in a university community with a large population of Chinese international students and DS2 is a student there. It never even occurred to me that some of those students may have been in China during break. I'm not too concerned yet though. I wish we knew the real story of what's happening with this virus. I don't trust the Chinese government at all. The Chinese students are absolutely positive that the Tianammon Square protests never happened because their government told them it didn't.

[Ausmumof3]

38 minutes ago, mom2scouts said:

I live in a university community with a large population of Chinese international students and DS2 is a student there. It never even occurred to me that some of those students may have been in China during break. I'm not too concerned yet though. I wish we knew the real story of what's happening with this virus. I don't trust the Chinese government at all. The Chinese students are absolutely positive that the Tianammon Square protests never happened because their government told them it didn't.

One of the cases here was a student in accommodation.  However sounds like she was pretty proactive about self isolating.

[Arcadia]

From CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-plane-carrying-japanese-evacuees-lands-in-tokyo-12363826

“TOKYO: A plane carrying Japanese nationals evacuated from Wuhan, the Chinese city at the centre of a new coronavirus outbreak, landed Wednesday (Jan 29) at a Tokyo airport.

An AFP reporter saw the plane arrive at Haneda airport around 8.45am, with officials saying 206 people were on board.

Airport workers wearing face masks immediately began unloading luggage from the aircraft, and several buses pulled up, but there was no immediate sign of passengers leaving the plane.

Earlier, health ministry officials said medical professionals on board the flight would carry out health checks but that there were no plans to quarantine the arriving passengers.

The flight arrives as several countries work to extract their nationals from Wuhan, with an American charter flight also due to leave the city on Wednesday, bound for an airport in the Los Angeles area.

The Japanese flight arrived in Wuhan overnight carrying emergency relief supplies including 15,000 masks, 50,000 pairs of gloves and 8,000 protective glasses, the foreign ministry said.

Around four medical officials were also on board to monitor returning passengers.

Government officials said Tuesday that evacuees would be asked to fill out a health questionnaire and that anyone displaying symptoms on the flight would be taken to hospital immediately upon arrival in Japan.

All passengers were expected to be tested for the new strain of coronavirus, which has killed more than 100 people and infected thousands.

The evacuees would be asked to remain at home and avoid crowds at least until the results of the test were known, officials said.

Those who live in and near Tokyo will be allowed to head home, while those living further away will be taken to local hotels initially.

Japan's health ministry has so far confirmed seven cases of the virus in the country, including one man who had not travelled to China.

The man from the western region of Nara had driven a tour bus with tourists from Wuhan twice in January, the health ministry said.

Japan's foreign ministry says around 650 Japanese nationals in the Wuhan area have asked to be repatriated, and local media reported Wednesday that Tokyo was preparing to send a second charter flight, possibly later Wednesday, to collect more people.

Chinese authorities said Wednesday that the number of confirmed deaths in the outbreak has risen to 132 nationwide, with the confirmed total of infections now nearly 6,000.

More than 50 million people have been locked down in and around Wuhan, the central industrial city where the outbreak first began, in a bid by authorities to stop an infection that has since spread to other cities in China and to other countries.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called the virus a "demon" during talks on Tuesday with the head of the World Health Organization in Beijing, and pledged a "timely" release of updates about the crisis.”

Edited January 29, 2020 by Arcadia

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australians-to-be-evacuated-from-wuhan-sent-to-christmas-island-20200129-p53vpw.html#click=https://t.co/bLldJf6dqA
 

apparently the Australians are being sent to Christmas Island detention centre for quarantine.  I can’t imagine how that’s going to be received?  

[Carrie12345]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.theage.com.au/politics/federal/australians-to-be-evacuated-from-wuhan-sent-to-christmas-island-20200129-p53vpw.html#click=https://t.co/bLldJf6dqA
 

apparently the Australians are being sent to Christmas Island detention centre for quarantine.  I can’t imagine how that’s going to be received?  

Americans will be in an airport hangar. But it’s okay, they’re preparing it to screen the Super Bowl.

[Arcadia]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

apparently it’s difficult for Australia to organise an evacuation due to the fact we don’t have consular assistance available in Wuhan.  
 

From SMH https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-to-be-evacuated-from-wuhan-sent-to-christmas-island-20200129-p53vpw.html

“January 29, 2020 — 11.57am

Australians to be evacuated from Wuhan, sent to Christmas Island

Australians trapped in Wuhan will be evacuated and transferred to the Christmas Island detention centre for quarantine as the deadly coronavirus spreads.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison said infants and the elderly were the top priority for the assisted departures, which were announced after cabinet's national security committee signed off on them on Wednesday morning.

"We have taken a decision this morning to prepare a plan for an operation to provide some assisted departures for isolated and vulnerable Australians in Wuhan and the Hubei province," Mr Morrison said in Canberra on Wednesday.

"This will be done subject obviously to working closely and with the authority and approval of the Chinese government".

Mr Morrison said the focus would be on evacuating Australians who do not have established support infrastructure in Wuhan and have been shorter term travellers to that area.

He said he could not guarantee that the operation will succeed, and it will require permission from the Chinese government.

"I also want to stress very clearly that we may not be in a position if we're able to do this on one occasion to do it on another occasion," he said.

Australian consular officials are on their way to the sealed off area from Shanghai to assist with the departure. The evacuation is broader than that being undertaken by the United States.

"There are many complications and many issues that we're going to have to overcome," he said. "I note that the United States has been able to provide assisted departures already, but I stress that has only been for their consular staff and families."

Qantas has offered to fly into the lockdown zone to evacuate the Australians in the city. Up to 400 have registered for consular assistance with the embassy, but it remains unclear if all will be evacuated or willing to go to Christmas Island.

An AUSMAT team of medical professionals trained to deal with disaster zones will meet them on Christmas Island.

Those evacuated will be quarantined on Christmas Island for 14 days.

The Department of Foreign Affairs upgraded its travel advice for all of China on Wednesday morning, urging Australians to reconsider their need to travel to China.

The pneumonia-like coronavirus has now killed 132 people, mostly in China, and as of Wednesday morning had 6,000 confirmed cases.”

[Renai]

How long does it take to get test results back? In one of my WeChat groups, someone posted a "bulletin" of some sort claiming that "good news! It only takes 2-3 hours" to get test results from a sample. There was other information about how to combat the virus and how it's short lived outside the host, but since the person never confirmed where the information came from (I specifically asked, but in English), I didn't share it.

[Ausmumof3]

Apparently SARS only hit around 8000 confirmed cases worldwide.  This isn’t far off that already.  I’m not sure how the timelines compare.
I have also seen that there are over 1000 people still in critical condition.  That seems high out of 6000 cases?

[Pen]

7 minutes ago, Renai said:

How long does it take to get test results back? In one of my WeChat groups, someone posted a "bulletin" of some sort claiming that "good news! It only takes 2-3 hours" to get test results from a sample. There was other information about how to combat the virus and how it's short lived outside the host, but since the person never confirmed where the information came from (I specifically asked, but in English), I didn't share it.

 

There’s apparently a quick test, but supplies running out.   

 

[Slache]

3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently SARS only hit around 8000 confirmed cases worldwide.  This isn’t far off that already.  I’m not sure how the timelines compare.
I have also seen that there are over 1000 people still in critical condition.  That seems high out of 6000 cases?

Do you remember where you saw this?

[Pen]

22 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently SARS only hit around 8000 confirmed cases worldwide.  This isn’t far off that already.  I’m not sure how the timelines compare.
I have also seen that there are over 1000 people still in critical condition.  That seems high out of 6000 cases?

 

I heard the same.  I think that’s part of why hospitals are being built.  

Nothing I have heard says whether when people recover from critical from this illness they are permanently severely impaired. 

[TrixieB]

28 minutes ago, Slache said:

Do you remember where you saw this?

I saw the same figure (1000 in critical condition) earlier today but now can't find it.  Either the number has been altered, or I'm getting different search results on laptop vs phone.

I was thinking NY Times, CNN, CBS - those are the sites I've read most frequently today.  Possibly Washington Post or LA Times. ETA: Could be The Guardian - forgot I was looking at it earlier.

Edited January 29, 2020 by TrixieB

[Slache]

Just now, TrixieB said:

I saw the same figure (1000 in critical condition) earlier today but now can't find it.  Either the number has been altered, or I'm getting different search results on laptop vs phone.

I was thinking NY Times, CNN, CBS - those are the sites I've read most frequently today.  Possibly Washington Post or LA Times.

I'm digging around, too. This is scary stuff!

[TravelingChris]

15 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Even as reported If accurate it’s kind of concerning.  Death rate seems to be around 1:40 infections which is higher than typical flu.  Will come down to the spread rate and whether they find more effective treatment I guess.

a  well known respectable doctor was on tv here and said that the virus has probably been spreading for way. way longer than Dec.  He said there were reports out of China of a virus causing death since last spring but no explanation or investigation apparently by the Chinese goverment.  They have refused to accept the Centers of Disease Control's help in any way and they are the premier contagious disease prevention agency in the world.  I have seen reports that they have refused other government's offers of help either.   Apparently they were so afraid of social unrest but it is happening because of their actions.

It is a very serious disease and the Chinese are now admitting it.  It causes lung lesions and unlike initial Chinese govt reports, young people are dying too-- by that I mean the not aged and infirmed.   That may very well mean that part of the problem is the immune system ending up killing the people, which is what has happened with some other viruses that primarily affected the young.

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Slache said:

Do you remember where you saw this?

Who report

says severe not critical so may be exaggerated to say critical 

[TravelingChris]

9 hours ago, ashfern said:

I read somewhere that they've known since Dec 8th of 2019. So, last year but not a year ago.

That is what China is saying.  No one in China or who knows about China believes all that much about what they are saying.  They always downplay any type of disaster- be it medical, earthquake or otherwise.   What that probably means is when it was identified, not when it started. 

[TravelingChris]

7 hours ago, Katy said:

So I was googling the other night when I couldn't sleep.  I didn't save the links but the reports about a year ago aren't about this particular new coronavirus, they're about other coronaviruses.  SARS was one, MERS was one.  All three strains are from bats. 

There was an American lab working with a lab in Wuhan on research on corona viruses that discovered last summer that for some reason bat corona viruses don't need to be mutated to be transmissible to humans. I don't really understand the full implications of that but for some reason American scientists were horrified that the information and banned the American lab from working on the research any more.  This is also where the conspiracy that the disease was man made and leaked from the lab in Wuhan came from.  I suppose any number of people could use that information to create a bioweapon, but I suspect it would be difficult to distribute.  I think it's more likely that the market in Wuhan had a bat colony living somewhere in it, and where there are bats there are droppings and live viruses.  Touch anything with the virus on it, and then touch your face and you'll get infected.

And the concept that the N95 masks don't stop the virus is sort of correct.  A virus is smaller than the holes in the mask.  But at this point they are assuming the virus isn't airborne but is droplet, like other colds or the flu. And if you get hospitalized for the flu, the nurses go in with face masks and paper gowns and paper booties because droplets mean it is spread in mucous.  So if you cough or sneeze, little droplets of snot or saliva contain the virus.  Or if your toilet flushes, little bits of water droplets that get splashed into the air will contain the virus.  But it doesn't float around indefinitely, it only goes about 6 feet and then falls to land on whatever surface is down.  So most transmission of the flu isn't something you breathe in, it's from touching a dirty surface with the virus and then touching a mucous membrane on your own body.  In theory if someone sneezed or coughed in your face, or if you were in a crowded restroom and breathed at the wrong moment when there was a fine spray in the air from flushing a toilet you could get it, but over all that is unlikely.  So stopping you from touching your face does help.  Even using a scarf could help. Still, at this point you are more likely to catch the flu.  And if you're considering sewing a fabric mask you should make many because re-wearing the same one daily would likely make mold spores grow, which is much more likely to make you sick than the virus.

I don't think they really think the incubation/infectious period before symptoms is 14 days, I think that number came from an abundance of caution because they have no idea how long it might be.  They definitely think it has mutated to become more infectious.

There are many youtube videos of people in Wuhan who are saying the numbers are way too low.  One nurse from 3 days ago said something like 19,000 people had asked to be tested.  There's also a very good video from CBC (Canada) with a doctor that said the numbers might be legitimately low becase Wuhan ran out of tests.  So the "official" number is only for the number of tests that they had.  Actually that whole video was pretty good.  I'll try to find it and share it below.

I also saw a couple comments on YouTube videos that said they think the virus has been circulating there for several months because the death tolls have been way up, but they think it was misdiagnosed as the flu previously.  But who knows how accurate that is, or if it was just some trolls.

Wrong, they sell bats to eat in that market/  they sell all kinds of anumals

[TravelingChris]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently SARS only hit around 8000 confirmed cases worldwide.  This isn’t far off that already.  I’m not sure how the timelines compare.
I have also seen that there are over 1000 people still in critical condition.  That seems high out of 6000 cases?

Not with lung lesions

[Ausmumof3]

one other question I have is after people are symptom free is that the end of contagion.  I know with norovirus and some others you can continue to spread it even after the vomiting is over if you aren’t careful with hand washing etc  Does anyone know if that’s a likely scenario?

Edited January 29, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Pen]

USA CBS news?  Link not working again, but can cut and paste a section : 

 

“Death toll rises to 132, with more than 5,900 confirmed cases in China

.... 

Officials also reported 1,459 new confirmed cases, bringing the total to 5,974. More than 1,200 of those cases are considered "critical."”

 

 

[TrixieB]

2 minutes ago, Pen said:

USA CBS news?  Link not working again, but can cut and paste a section : 

 

“Death toll rises to 132, with more than 5,900 confirmed cases in China

.... 

Officials also reported 1,459 new confirmed cases, bringing the total to 5,974. More than 1,200 of those cases are considered "critical."”

 

 

Yes, that's it

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/china-coronavirus-outbreak-us-plans-wuhan-evacuation-death-toll-number-cases-rises-today-2020-01-28/#post-update-9a2a718f

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by TrixieB

[Ausmumof3]

British airways have suspended flights to and from mainland China 

[Ausmumof3]

And a sixth case for Australia 

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-outbreak-australians-to-be-airlifted-from-wuhan/21b5ae60-a35b-4d26-a902-dc27f8c7bec3

they are now saying anyone returning from Hubei must be isolated for 14 days and anyone whose had contact with confirmed cases needs to be isolated 14 days.  They believe at least one contact passed on the virus two days before showing symptoms. And considering revising policies about school attendance 

Edited January 29, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, StellaM said:

 

I think the revised advice is based on a case in Germany ?

I am quite worried about the wellbeing of the refugee family with two small daughters being held on Christmas Island, which is where returned expats will be held for the period of their quarantine.  

In The press conference before it was said that they would be housed in a separate facility and not at risk.  It seems like it could be sensible and easier to relocate them though.

sounds like some people feel like evacuating might just put them at more risk versus staying locked down.  Sharing a plane etc.  and I guess once they are there if there’s another case the 14 days has to go from that time.  Unless families are completely isolated on Christmas Island.

In vic the most recent patient and his family dined at a restaurant on Sunday night.

[Ausmumof3]

And one confirmed case in Queensland to 7 total for Australia.  

[Carrie12345]

8 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Apparently SARS only hit around 8000 confirmed cases worldwide.  This isn’t far off that already.  I’m not sure how the timelines compare.
I have also seen that there are over 1000 people still in critical condition.  That seems high out of 6000 cases?

It does to me!
I was looking at the CDCs flu estimates for this year. They show about half of all cases going to get medical attention. At most, about 3.5% of those patients get hospitalized. And then deaths equal anywhere from 3-14% of the number of hospitalizations.

Not that I believe we can fairly compare stats *yet. If ever.  Too many holes. But it’s enough, imo, to know it shouldn’t be shrugged at like we do the flu. And I’ve learned too much to ever shrug ay the flu again !

[geodob]

It has just been announced, that scientists in Australia have "successfully grown a Wuhan coronavirus sample from a sick patient,...?
https://www.businessinsider.com/australia-successfully-grows-wuhan-coronavirus-sample-from-sick-patient-2020-1/?r=AU&IR=T

This opens up the potential, to develop an 'antibody test' for the virus.  As well as a possible vaccine.
But it also provides an opportunity to gain greater understanding of the Virus?
Such as 'what temperatures it can survive at'?  'How long can it survive on a surface?'
Coronavirus, can travel in 'respiratory droplets'.  That are coughed or breathed out.
What would be helpful, is the worldwide introduction of 'de-humidifiers' in all public buildings. As they extract these water droplets from the air.
Their is really little known about this?  So now that it has been grown, understanding it can begin.

But this potential for people being infectious, before having symptoms?  Presents an extremely difficult situation?

[Carrie12345]

13 minutes ago, geodob said:

It has just been announced, that scientists in Australia have "successfully grown a Wuhan coronavirus sample from a sick patient,...?
https://www.businessinsider.com/australia-successfully-grows-wuhan-coronavirus-sample-from-sick-patient-2020-1/?r=AU&IR=T

This opens up the potential, to develop an 'antibody test' for the virus.  As well as a possible vaccine.
But it also provides an opportunity to gain greater understanding of the Virus?
Such as 'what temperatures it can survive at'?  'How long can it survive on a surface?'
Coronavirus, can travel in 'respiratory droplets'.  That are coughed or breathed out.
What would be helpful, is the worldwide introduction of 'de-humidifiers' in all public buildings. As they extract these water droplets from the air.
Their is really little known about this?  So now that it has been grown, understanding it can begin.

But this potential for people being infectious, before having symptoms?  Presents an extremely difficult situation?

In much of the world, buildings are currently *too* de-humidified.  We just grabbed ds a humidifier b/c we’re so dry he’s getting nosebleeds.

I believe it was on these forums that someone recently posted about over-dry conditions in hospitals leading to the continued circulation of viruses in the air.  They found that upping the humidity reduced spread.

[geodob]

Yes, if the air is too dry?  Then the viruses can float as 'aerosol transmissions'.  Waiting for rehydration.
Here's a link to some research, that identified 40% to 60% humidity as the best to stop viral transmission.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/leahbinder/2019/10/17/harvard-researcher-says-this-inexpensive-action-will-lower-hospital-infection-rates-and-protect-us-for-the-flu-season/#409a0fdc1824

5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

British airways have suspended flights to and from mainland China 

 

I wonder if this is mainly due to economic reasons -- there can't be that many people wanting to fly to China right now.  Also, I bet it is hard for airlines to find cabin crews who want to work these flights.

[BeachGal]

United Airlines cancelled some flights into and out of China yesterday as well.

Yesterday at the CDC briefing Dr. Fauci mentioned that epidemics are always caused by symptomatic cases. Here’s what he said:

“But the one thing historically people need to realize -- that even if there is some asymptomatic transmission -- in all the history of respiratory borne viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks. The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person, even if there’s a rare asymptomatic person that might transit. An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers. "

The CDC is evaluating the contacts of infected people here in the US to see if they are shedding the virus and if so, how much.

China also asked for international help yesterday. Finally.

Edited January 29, 2020 by BeachGal
Correction

[Renai]

35 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

United Airlines cancelled flights into and out of China yesterday as well.

Yesterday at the CDC briefing Dr. Fauci mentioned that epidemics are always caused by symptomatic cases. Here’s what he said:

“But the one thing historically people need to realize -- that even if there is some asymptomatic transmission -- in all the history of respiratory borne viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks. The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person, even if there’s a rare asymptomatic person that might transit. An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers. "

The CDC is evaluating the contacts of infected people here in the US to see if they are shedding the virus and if so, how much.

China also asked for international help yesterday. Finally.

Yeah, apparently China asked for help while Dr. Fauci, et al, were live. They were quite diplomatic in saying how much China WAS doing, without outright calling them out for refusing help...

[vonfirmath]

16 hours ago, wilrunner said:

All the talk about masks has me curious. I wear glasses. Every time I've worn a mask, my glasses fog up and I can't see, so I end up putting the mask over my mouth and not my nose. Has there been a mask developed that people who wear glasses can use?

 

I was noticing this this weekend wearing a mask and finally had the mask in the car and only wore it when getting out of the car, not while driving.

[Pen]

8 hours ago, BeachGal said:

United Airlines cancelled flights into and out of China yesterday as well.

Yesterday at the CDC briefing Dr. Fauci mentioned that epidemics are always caused by symptomatic cases. Here’s what he said:

“But the one thing historically people need to realize -- that even if there is some asymptomatic transmission -- in all the history of respiratory borne viruses of any type, asymptomatic transmission has never been the driver of outbreaks. The driver of outbreaks is always a symptomatic person, even if there’s a rare asymptomatic person that might transit. An epidemic is not driven by asymptomatic carriers. "

 

Historically, “epidemics” May have been with viruses that weren’t transmitted except by symptomatic carriers.  

Certainly there have been historical problems with asymptomatic carriers — though perhaps not “epidemic” as Fauci understands it (and/or not a virus and/or perhaps not being spread by direct human vectors) cases like Typhoid Mary, fairly common asymptomatic strep carriers, asymptomatic STD (forgot new term for sexually transmitted diseases like chlamydia carriers, and syphilis).   Small pox carried (perhaps on blankets not people, though perhaps also directly from people) to Native Americans by Europeans whose immune systems were used to it.

 

With a respiratory virus if someone isn’t coughing or sneezing there’s probably less virus going less far from that person via ordinary breathing than where someone forcefully otoh it is harder for that person or those around to know to take precautions. 

 

Quote

The CDC is evaluating the contacts of infected people here in the US to see if they are shedding the virus and if so, how much.

 

That’s good. 

Quote

China also asked for international help yesterday. Finally.

 

Good.  But ominous as to how bad it must be

Edited January 29, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

   16 hours ago,  wilrunner said: 

All the talk about masks has me curious. I wear glasses. Every time I've worn a mask, my glasses fog up and I can't see, so I end up putting the mask over my mouth and not my nose. Has there been a mask developed that people who wear glasses can use?

 

I have problems with chemicals and wear masks for that a lot, and also wear glasses. 

It is often a problem but can be minimized:

1) It is less a problem if there’s a space between mask and glasses.  

2) less a problem if mask is snug (if there’s a metal nose bridge try to shape it well).  Surgeons and people doing work that requires both goggles and masks and needing to see without fog up sometimes tape the mask along bridge of nose and cheeks to keep air from coming out toward glasses.  sometimes tape just on nose 

3) some glasses cleaners / products help to alleviate fog up (like an old trick of spitting on snorkeling masks), soapy water is supposed to, but I don’t want soap on my glasses

[BeachGal]

Rolf Hilgenfeld at U of Lubeck and one of the top experts on coronavirus said that it does not mutate easily and actually tends to fix its mutations, unlike flu, for example. He also added that the vaccine would not be difficult to make but needs funding. It is more contagious but so far mortality rates are lower than SARS. Could change but while some have extremely serious lower respiratory infections, others have been mild and have already recovered.

I’m standing on a train so can’t respond much but Fauci was talking about airborne respiratory infections.

CDC will likely come out with updated US numbers sometime today.

[Jyhwkmama]

Suspected case in Lawrence, KS. Individual who had just returned from WuHan. Currently quarantined at hospital awaiting CDC test results.