What’s happening in Russia?

[Ausmumof3]

Anyone want to shed any light on/discuss this? 
 

Who/what are Wagner? My understanding is mercenaries, possible neonazi/right wing? Partly funded/equipped by Russia?

How significant is Rostov on Don?

Is this a coup, civil war, protest?

what impact will it have on the Ukraine situation?

[fraidycat]

I only "know" a little bit based on what I've seen on social media, but I'm not sure I understand exactly how all the puzzle pieces fit or what the implications are. 

I know there are some people who are way smarter than me here, so I look forward the reading along.

[gardenmom5]

Putin forgot attack dogs can turn on their masters. . . . .  

I haven't been following Wagner too closely, but my impression is they are particularly ruthless mercenaries that have been fighting for Russia.  Now, their leader is claiming Putin dropped bombs on his men.  (and he's mad. . . . )
He led his men after the Russian military - the disheartened little dears . . The Russian Generals fled, and now Wagner (whatever the leader's name is) is going after Moscow.

Edited June 24, 2023 by gardenmom5

[Laura Corin]

The NYT has an explanation of the background - I hope this link works https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/23/world/europe/yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-wagner-coup.html?smid=nytcore-android-share

Edited June 24, 2023 by Laura Corin

[TravelingChris]

They apperently got a second city on the way to Moscow.  

One thing that is interesting, the Wagner chief is declaring that the war in Ukraine was a wrong decision since NATO/Ukraine were not planning an attack- which was the stated reason for the war.\

Also., Putin and buddies have fled to St. Petersburg.

I read that one reason it was a perfect plan is because the upper brass get roaringly drunk on Friday night.

[Faith-manor]

I feel like we have an early 20th century Ground Hog Day movie thing going on, caught in a time loop. In the last 3 years, Pandemic, War in Russia, Coup in Russia,  a big rise in Fascism, and a Titanic disaster. I have a pretty bat crazy bingo card for this decade, but I still didn't anticipate this.

Putin on the run is definitely something we have all been waiting to see.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Faith-manor

[Corraleno]

11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Who/what are Wagner? My understanding is mercenaries, possible neonazi/right wing? Partly funded/equipped by Russia?

Wagner is a private military company (often written as PMC Wagner) directly owned and controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin, but (until now) indirectly owned and controlled by Putin. Putin funded Wagner and basically used them as his private army. Wagner has been deployed in Syria and various African countries in support of dictators and warlords. Because they are not technically part of the Russian military, they allow Putin to claim no responsibility for the war crimes they commit.

Some of the soldiers are mercenaries who signed up for money, but Prigozhin has been increasingly recruiting from prisons, offering prisoners a full pardon and the right to return to Russia as free men after their 6 month contract is up (of course, not many of them last 6 months). Many of these guys are convicted murderers and rapists, and Wagner has been responsible for some of the worst war crimes in Ukraine, from raping children to torturing and castrating Ukrainian POWs — which they infamously record and upload videos of. They have also posted videos of executing their own men who were accused of deserting by taping their heads to a brick and using a sledge hammer.

In the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Wagner was by far the best funded of the three groups there (the 3rd group are Chechen mercenaries controlled by Kadyrov). Wagner had better equipment, more weapons, more food, more everything, and they were much more effective than either the Russian army or the Chechens. However, as the war has dragged on and Russia lost huge numbers of men and equipment, supplies became scarce and there was infighting between Wagner and the military competing for resources.

Prigozhin began openly criticizing the military command, claiming that the commanders were lazy, corrupt, incompetent, etc., and that he should be given priority for supplies and support since he was the only one who was actually having success in Ukraine; Bakhmut is literally the only "victory" Russia has had in Ukraine in a very long time, and that was captured by Wagner — at a cost of tens of thousands of lives. By the time Bakhmut fell, Wagner were basically out of supplies, and they resorted to kidnapping and torturing a Russian commander and stealing tanks, weapons, and supplies from the Russian army. 

Tensions between Prigozhin and the Minister of Defense, Shoigu, heated up in the last couple of weeks, with Shoigu announcing that the MOD was taking control of Wagner and all Wagnerites had to sign a military contract and be absorbed into the Russian army. Prigozhin responded by calling for the execution of Shoigu and General Valery Gerasimov, who is head of the armed forces. Then yesterday Prigozhin claimed that the Russian military attacked his main camp with helicopters and artillery, killing many Wagner soldiers, and announced that he was marching on Moscow and intended to take out Shoigu and Gerasimov. Until now he has been very very careful not to criticize Putin, blaming the MOD for misleading not only the public but Putin himself about the reasons for the war and how badly it was going.

ETA: Wagner = around 25,000 men, and they are generally better trained, and have less to lose (many being ex prisoners) than the regular army, most of whom didn't want to be conscripted. However, the military has a lot more tanks, helicopters, etc., than Wagner, so Prigozhin seems to be relying on the idea that Russian solders and police may not want to engage them, and that seems to be mostly true so far, as they have had little resistance going into Rostov and Voronezh. That will likely change as they get closer to Moscow.

 

11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

How significant is Rostov on Don?

It's extremely significant — it's the command center for the southern army and controls the supply routes into Ukraine. There is a ton of equipment and weapons there, as well as an airfield, and Prigozhin seems to have full control of the city and the equipment. It's significant that Wagner does not seem to have met any resistance on the way, and also seems to have had a pretty easy time taking Voronezh.

 

11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Is this a coup, civil war, protest?

Not a coup, in that Prigozhin is not trying to take out Putin, but he is trying to topple the Russian military command. Most people seem to think he was hoping that his formerly-close friend and ally Putin would use the opportunity to scapegoat Shoigu and Gerasimov and get rid of them, and possibly put Prigozhin in a position of higher power. But it doesn't look like it's going to go that way.

 

11 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

what impact will it have on the Ukraine situation?

In the short term it will prevent Russia from resupplying the military in Ukraine and possibly force the military to pull troops back to deal with Wagner. And then there is the effect on public opinion when Muscovites, who have been largely untouched by the war (most conscripts are coming from ethnic minorities far from Moscow and St Petersburg), suddenly find the war at their front door, and maybe Putin doesn't look quite as strong an in control as they thought.

There are two other, much smaller, Russian military groups in the area that are anti-Putin and have been skirmishing in Russian territory near the border. One is the Freedom of Russia Legion, which has been loosely working with the Ukrainian military, and the other is a far-right neo-Nazi group called Russian Volunteer Corps. Those two groups sometimes cooperate, and they have recently taken the city of Belgorad, just over the Russian border, with little to no resistance. 

In the long term, however, if Prigozhin did somehow get command of the military or depose Putin, it would not be a good thing for Ukraine. He has openly called for using nuclear weapons and he gives his soldiers free rein to commit war crimes, so a Russian military under his command would likely be even more brutal than the current one. 

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Corraleno

[wintermom]

This just makes my heart bleed more for everyone in the Ukraine. 😪  When will it all end?

[Idalou]

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/europe/russia-yevgeny-prigozhin-internet-research-agency-intl/index.html

I think the Mueller report mentioned the leader of Wagner a dozen times. So no matter what happens or who prevails between Putin and Prigozhin, our former Prez has important ties to him!

Edited June 24, 2023 by Idalou

[Corraleno]

There are reports that Wagner has control of the very large prison in Rostov (up to 14,000 prisoners?), and is offering freedom to anyone who will join Wagner on the spot. 

The Russian prison system is a nightmare, run by gangs who control the prison through violence, rape, and bribery. Prigozhin himself is a product of the prison system, having served 9 years for robbery and other crimes, and his soldiers are generally very loyal to him because they see him as "one of us," whereas the average Russian conscript has no loyalty or respect for commanders who steal from them and literally abandon them when under attack. So in some ways it's not surprising that soldiers being ordered to attack Prigozhin and Wagner may decide to just look the other way and let him pass, because both groups hate the corrupt Russian military structure.

 

[Pawz4me]

23 minutes ago, wintermom said:

This just makes my heart bleed more for everyone in the Ukraine. 😪  When will it all end?

I don’t see how this hurts Ukraine, at least not in the short term?

[Halftime Hope]

Reports on Twitter of lots of private jets bugging out of Moscow.  (Screenshots of the planes on aircraft tracking sites.)

[Corraleno]

32 minutes ago, Halftime Hope said:

Reports on Twitter of lots of private jets bugging out of Moscow.  (Screenshots of the planes on aircraft tracking sites.)

There are also reports that Lukashenko has fled Belarus; his plane was tracked to Bodrum, Turkey, although there is no confirmation yet that he was on it. But there have been calls from Belarusian opposition leaders and Belarusians fighting in Ukraine (on the Ukrainian side) for the Belarusian military to refuse orders from Lukashenko and to take back their country and kick the Russians out.

[Pawz4me]

Control of Russia's nuclear weapons--and their possible use by either side--seems like it should be a huge concern.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Pawz4me

[ddcrook]

1 hour ago, Idalou said:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/europe/russia-yevgeny-prigozhin-internet-research-agency-intl/index.html

I think the Mueller report mentioned the leader of Wagner a dozen times. So no matter what happens or who prevails between Putin and Prigozhin, our former Prez has important ties to him!

The article you linked does not support your conclusion. Mueller's indictments of IRA officials did not link their propaganda to any of our former presidents.

[Corraleno]

The Wagner troops currently heading for Moscow are reportedly under the command of Dmitry Utkin, former Russian military officer who is sometimes listed as a co-founder of Wagner. He was heavily involved in propping up the Assad regime in Syria, and he is an extreme Russian nationalist and neo Nazi. Ultimately, the West is a lot safer with the current Russian military command, whose corruption and incompetence have worked in Ukraine's favor, than we would be with people like Utkin and Prigozhin in charge. These guys are straight out of central casting for Bond villains: Utkin (shirtless) and Prigozhin:

Edited June 24, 2023 by Corraleno

[Corraleno]

Lots of rumors circulating that Prigozhin has cut a deal to withdraw his troops, in return for which Shoigu and Gerasimov will resign (possibly to be replaced with someone approved by Prigozhin), Progozhin will retain full control of Wagner, and all charges will be dropped against him personally and all Wagner troops. He is supposedly going to return to Ukraine, now that he's collected all the new weapons and equipment he wants from Rostov?

Edited June 24, 2023 by Corraleno

[ddcrook]

@CorralenoI don't want to like your posts because I don't like anything about this situation, but I do appreciate your updates. 

[Indigo Blue]

Utkin looks absolutely horrifying. 

[fairfarmhand]

Just now, Indigo Blue said:

Utkin looks absolutely horrifying. 

Both of those guys look like dick  Tracy or some other comic book villains. Scary.

[ktgrok]

All of this sounds like a crazy action movie with Bruce Willis in it somewhere. Wow. 

[Corraleno]

So now Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov is saying charges are dropped against Prigozhin, who is moving to Belarus (???), and some Wagner soldiers will sign contracts with MOD and others are pardoned (but otherwise Wagner is disbanded??).

None of this is making any sense, Prigozhin was on the outskirts of Moscow, some Russian forces had either joined up with him or at least allowed him to pass uncontested, many more seemed to be hedging their bets waiting to see the outcome, and then with all the momentum and everything going in his favor...  Prigozhin just suddenly backed off and possibly gave up his forces???

Apparently some of the Wagner soldiers are furious, having assumed they were marching on Moscow and now they're expected to just go right back to the meat grinder on the front in Ukraine, under the totally incompetent command of the MOD, with even less support and supplies than they had as a PMC? And everyone is saying that Prigozhin is basically a dead man walking at this point, because Putin's guarantees of "safety" and immunity are laughable considering how many of his enemies have fallen out of windows or "committed suicide" (with multiple shots to the back of the head) in the last year or so.

The whole thing is beyond bizarre.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Corraleno

[Innisfree]

10 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The whole thing is beyond bizarre.

Yes. I keep refreshing the news pages expecting something else will happen, because this makes no sense. Accepting a guarantee of safety from Putin is lunacy, and Prigozhin knows that.

[73349]

6 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Some of the soldiers are mercenaries who signed up for money, but Prigozhin has been increasingly recruiting from prisons, offering prisoners a full pardon and the right to return to Russia as free men after their 6 month contract is up (of course, not many of them last 6 months). Many of these guys are convicted murderers and rapists, and Wagner has been responsible for some of the worst war crimes in Ukraine, from raping children to torturing and castrating Ukrainian POWs — which they infamously record and upload videos of. They have also posted videos of executing their own men who were accused of deserting by taping their heads to a brick and using a sledge hammer.

Russian prisons are full of multi-drug resistant TB, and Western treatment protocols are not generally available, so going to prison at all can be a death sentence. That's a lot of motivation to get out if any opportunity arises.

[Idalou]

5 hours ago, ddcrook said:

The article you linked does not support your conclusion. Mueller's indictments of IRA officials did not link their propaganda to any of our former presidents.

The whole gang is intertwined. This man tells a bit here, his Twitter accounts has much more information. They've been in cahoots for years. And don't try to say "well, Flynn isnt T, his son isn't T, etc." They call acted together.

[Ausmumof3]

Wow what a mess!
 

Thanks @Corraleno for your clear and detailed reply.

It seems unlikely the Prigozhin will not suffer some kind of retribution and odd that he’d give up so early. Maybe he expected more support from other groups that wasn’t forthcoming.

One theory I’ve seen suggested is that it’s a kind of ploy to take a step back and attack Ukraine from a different angle but that sounds far-fetched.

[Farrar]

I'm glad these guys didn't win their mutiny and I hope the chaos is something Ukraine can use. I think we all would hope that they would want to end the war or dial back on the assault, but I wondered if they would have just straight out dropped nukes on Ukraine. 

Putin may have survived intact, but he looked incredibly weak today. 

I saw some in the know commentary that this was basically a sign of how Russia barely exists as a functioning nation at this point. We all think Putin has everything so locked down, but the internal structure of the government and military is actually a mess. So that was interesting. I wish there was a clearer resistance that could realistically lead to a less paranoid, militaristic government, but I don't see it.

[Farrar]

26 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It seems unlikely the Prigozhin will not suffer some kind of retribution and odd that he’d give up so early. Maybe he expected more support from other groups that wasn’t forthcoming.

I mean, this may be all he could have realistically achieved. He made Putin look like an utter fool. It was a huge humiliation. He'll have to watch his back forever but has money and resources that he'll be taking to Belarus and then to wherever. Assuming he can avoid radioactive poisoning attempts, I'm guessing he may feel like this was a win.

[Corraleno]

24 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Maybe he expected more support from other groups that wasn’t forthcoming.

That was the opinion of a Russian analyst I saw interviewed on a German (English-language) channel. He suggested that Prigozhin may have had (or thought he had) an agreement with certain people or groups within the Russian military to provide support once he'd demonstrated that he could literally take Moscow, and was encouraged by the support he found on his way through Rostov and Voronezh, but for whatever reason the big support for the final push did not materialize (the other parties were neutralized or got cold feet or whatever). So then he found himself on the outskirts of Moscow, with access blocked by blown bridges, and realized that his best bet at that point was to cut a deal and leave with his life, and his forces, intact. And Putin figured that taking a deal would at least be less humiliating than allowing Wagner to occupy the streets of Moscow, and he could always take Prigozhin out later once they'd withdrawn.

Putin is already incredibly paranoid, as evidenced by the number of people he's had killed already, and some analysts think that is only going to get worse. For years he's played his supposed "allies" against each other, in the hope of preventing any one person or group from gaining enough power to launch a coup, but now one of his once-closest allies has demonstrated just how weak and vulnerable Putin really is, which may embolden other "allies" to either make a power move of their own or else distance themselves from him in case he goes down.

[Corraleno]

I think it will be really interesting to see if Shoigu and Gerasimov are forced to resign. On the one hand, Putin clearly wants to replace them and blame them for the disastrous results in Ukraine, but OTOH, if he does get rid of them then it clearly shows that Prigozhin "won" by forcing Putin to meet his demands, so Putin looks even weaker.

[Pawz4me]

I've actually wondered if the whole thing was some sort of bizarre plot between Putin and Prigozhin, but I can't really figure out why that would be. I don't think Putin really needs a reason to get rid of Shoigu or Gerasimov? Plus how does getting rid of them and being w/o Prigozhin help Putin? Even if he were to pull out of Ukraine and blame it all on the military (and then vowing to rebuild the military bigger and better) that failure still rests on him. It's all so weird.

[Corraleno]

3 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

I've actually wondered if the whole thing was some sort of bizarre plot between Putin and Prigozhin, but I can't really figure out why that would be.

Plus there was real damage done — bridges around Moscow and a major military fuel depot blown up, helicopters and a plane shot down, with the loss of desperately needed pilots. And in the end it seriously damaged both men's reputations, there's no reason they'd collaborate in a piece of theater that destroyed much-needed equipment and made them both look bad. The only person who came out ahead was Lukashenko, who is trying to frame the whole thing as "I single-handedly saved Russia by averting a coup." 

[Carol in Cal.]

5 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

I've actually wondered if the whole thing was some sort of bizarre plot between Putin and Prigozhin, but I can't really figure out why that would be. I don't think Putin really needs a reason to get rid of Shoigu or Gerasimov? Plus how does getting rid of them and being w/o Prigozhin help Putin? Even if he were to pull out of Ukraine and blame it all on the military (and then vowing to rebuild the military bigger and better) that failure still rests on him. It's all so weird.

I have a working theory on this.  And it’s bad.  What if it’s a plot to give everyone plausible denial in the case of tactical nukes being used against Ukraine or the Zapoaritzha nuclear power plants blowing up and sending fallout everywhere?  

[Pawz4me]

2 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

I have a working theory on this.  And it’s bad.  What if it’s a plot to give everyone plausible denial in the case of tactical nukes being used against Ukraine or the Zapoaritzha nuclear power plants blowing up and sending fallout everywhere?  

I've wondered if what happened yesterday might make Putin more likely to use a nuclear weapon of some sort.

[Faith-manor]

5 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

I have a working theory on this.  And it’s bad.  What if it’s a plot to give everyone plausible denial in the case of tactical nukes being used against Ukraine or the Zapoaritzha nuclear power plants blowing up and sending fallout everywhere?  

It isn't far fetched. If we think Putin is dangerous on any given day, in a tailspin and with nothing to lose personally, he could be exponentially worse. 

[Corraleno]

21 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

I have a working theory on this.  And it’s bad.  What if it’s a plot to give everyone plausible denial in the case of tactical nukes being used against Ukraine or the Zapoaritzha nuclear power plants blowing up and sending fallout everywhere?  

But there's really no plausible deniability in either of those scenarios. The US, EU, and Ukraine know that Russia plans to blow up the power plant and that Russian soldiers have already mined it, so there's no way Putin can just shrug and say "oh it must have been some rogue Wagners, I knew nothing about it." Ditto with the idea of blaming Wagner if tactical nukes get used in Ukraine. With Prigozhin no longer under contract to provide services in Ukraine, any Wagner soldiers who don't join the Russian army have no reason to be there. They're not conscripts, they're mercenaries who are only there for the money and/or freedom from prison — they can go home or they can join one of the Wagner groups operating in Africa, which is where most of Prigozhin's income comes from. The idea that a bunch of mercenaries would not only volunteer to continue fighting for free, but also risk their lives to "steal" nuclear weapons from the Russian army and use them in Ukraine, is just not a believable cover story.

[Pawz4me]

I'm not so sure that desperate despots care about plausible deniability.

[Carol in Cal.]

4 hours ago, Corraleno said:

But there's really no plausible deniability in either of those scenarios. The US, EU, and Ukraine know that Russia plans to blow up the power plant and that Russian soldiers have already mined it, so there's no way Putin can just shrug and say "oh it must have been some rogue Wagners, I knew nothing about it." Ditto with the idea of blaming Wagner if tactical nukes get used in Ukraine. With Prigozhin no longer under contract to provide services in Ukraine, any Wagner soldiers who don't join the Russian army have no reason to be there. They're not conscripts, they're mercenaries who are only there for the money and/or freedom from prison — they can go home or they can join one of the Wagner groups operating in Africa, which is where most of Prigozhin's income comes from. The idea that a bunch of mercenaries would not only volunteer to continue fighting for free, but also risk their lives to "steal" nuclear weapons from the Russian army and use them in Ukraine, is just not a believable cover story.

But this is Putin's MO.  He states his version of what he wants people to accept as reality whether it is fully plausible or not.  He acts first and justifies later, usually, or denies that he acted.  The only thing I have ever seen prevent him from doing this is if somebody calls him on that BS in advance publicly enough to be too embarrassing to claim, even for him.  

[Corraleno]

21 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

But this is Putin's MO.  He states his version of what he wants people to accept as reality whether it is fully plausible or not.  He acts first and justifies later, usually, or denies that he acted.  The only thing I have ever seen prevent him from doing this is if somebody calls him on that BS in advance publicly enough to be too embarrassing to claim, even for him.  

But when he denies things that the West clearly knows he did, that's just propaganda for domestic consumption, he knows he's not fooling anyone outside of Russia. So he can tell his own people that the war is going great, Russian losses are very low, NATO blew up Nordstream, Ukraine sabotaged the dam, etc., but he's not delusional enough to believe that bombastic statements on Russian TV will somehow fool Western intelligence services and let him off the hook. He can deny war crimes all he wants, but the ICC still issued warrants for his arrest. 

If any group that is supporting Russia in the Ukrainian conflict uses nuclear weapons and/or blows the nuclear plant — whether it's current or ex- Wagner mercenaries, Kadyrovite Chechens, the "People's Militias" of Luhansk & Donetsk, or supposedly "rogue" army conscripts —  it really doesn't matter how Putin tries to spin it to his own population, because Russians aren't the ones who will be retaliating. And I'm not sure that even trying to spin it domestically as "we didn't do it, it was some random guys who stole the nuclear weapons that we left lying around unguarded" is such a good look for him either.

[Corraleno]

There are so many theories about how this was all just a cover for things like Putin cleaning house at the MOD, Putin sending Prigozhin into Belarus to depose Lukashenko and take his place, Prigozhin colluding with Putin trying to flush out traitors, etc. But none of those make sense — Putin can fire whoever he wants, whenever he wants, h doesn't need an excuse to shake up the MOD, he's already done that several times since the war started. Not to mention that "I fired my Defense Minister to appease a treasonous criminal" makes him look weak, not strong. There's also no evidence to suggest that Putin would want to replace Lukashenko, his most reliable and obedient ally in the area, with a non-Belarusian (i.e. not eligible for the presidency) billionaire ex-con whose violent mercenary forces have either been absorbed into the Russian army or are now loose canons who feel Prigozhin betrayed them.

The simplest explanation, which seems to be what most military analysts have landed on: Shoigu was in the process of seizing control of Wagner, and was likely going to eliminate Prigozhin in retaliation for his increasingly vitriolic criticism of the MOD. Prigozhin has always counted on Putin's protection to shield him from harm, and was taken by surprise when Putin sided with Shoigu on the order to turn Wagner over to the MOD. Knowing that Shoigu is widely despised by Russian soldiers as well as some of the other top brass, Prigozhin decided to gamble on marching against Moscow in the hope that others would join him, figuring that even if he lost it would ultimately damage Putin and Shoigu as much as him.  Now Putin is significantly weakened and is not making any public statements or appearances, there are rumors that Shoigu will soon be replaced by Aleksey Dyumin, and Prigozhin also seems to be in hiding (assuming he's not dead), as he's not been seen or heard from since he got into an SUV to leave Rostov yesterday.

 

[Lecka]

I think his actions are consistent with someone who just lost 40,000 men in a “human wave” tactic.  That has got to mess somebody up.  And could make somebody think “why not take my tanks to Moscow?”  
 

I don’t know how that fits into what level of planning or intentions he had, but I think it’s a really plausible “bottom line answer.”  
 

He does seem to be a human being who cares about the losses of his men.  
 

Or maybe they were going to turn on him if he kept sending them into that kind of attack.  
 

Overall I think maybe it is more battlefield type stuff than political stuff.  He doesn’t come across as the most political guy.  
 

I think the morale is pretty bad too and that’s not a good situation to be in as a leader.

 

 

[Corraleno]

16 hours ago, Lecka said:

I think his actions are consistent with someone who just lost 40,000 men in a “human wave” tactic.  That has got to mess somebody up.  And could make somebody think “why not take my tanks to Moscow?”  
 

I don’t know how that fits into what level of planning or intentions he had, but I think it’s a really plausible “bottom line answer.”  
 

He does seem to be a human being who cares about the losses of his men.  
 

Or maybe they were going to turn on him if he kept sending them into that kind of attack.  
 

Overall I think maybe it is more battlefield type stuff than political stuff.  He doesn’t come across as the most political guy.  
 

I think the morale is pretty bad too and that’s not a good situation to be in as a leader.

 

Prigozhin wasn't sending his elite, well-trained mercenaries into the meat grinder, he was sending the rapists and murderers he pulled out of prison and immediately sent to the front with a rifle and no training. It was a win-win for both him and Putin — Putin got to free up space in the prisons and Prigozhin got a continuing supply of hardened criminals no one cared about that could be freely used as canon fodder. By design, very few lived long enough to win the freedom they were promised in return for signing up. Prigozhin was not losing any sleep over the loss of those guys — there are photos of Wagner positions around Bakhmut where they were literally using stacks of frozen bodies like sandbags around the trenches.

If he cared about the men, he could have withdrawn at any time because Bakhmut had little military value. The reason Prigozhin was obsessed with taking it, at any cost, was because he had boasted that Wagner was the only force capable of achieving victory in Ukraine and that he could prove it by taking Bakhmut when the Russian army failed. Putin desperately needed a win after his troops were routed in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions last fall, so he diverted money and supplies to Wagner in hopes of getting at least one relatively quick victory. Unfortunately for both Putin and Prigozhin, Ukraine made that much more difficult than expected, but Prigozhin continued to throw bodies into the meat grinder because failure would prove that he wasn't any more useful or effective than the Russian army.

By the time Wagner was finally able to claim to have "captured" Bakhmut, it was basically rubble and they still didn't really have control of it, but they were able to plant a few flags on top of buildings and claim victory — and then immediately announce that they were going to withdraw and turn it over to the Russian army because they knew they couldn't hold it. By that point it wasn't obvious that the Pyrrhic victory had been worth it, and Prigozhin and Shoigu were locked in a battle for scarce resources that became increasingly personal and vitriolic, to the point that Shoigu announced he would be taking control of the Wagner forces. That's what prompted Prigozhin's march on Moscow, not concern for the tens of thousands of lives lost in taking a city whose value was primarily symbolic and political.

Prigozhin is not a military guy, he is literally an organized crime boss who runs a private mercenary force, deals in guns and drugs, and kills people who get in this way. It's all about money, power, and politics with him.

Edited June 26, 2023 by Corraleno

[Carol in Cal.]

5 hours ago, Corraleno said:

But when he denies things that the West clearly knows he did, that's just propaganda for domestic consumption, he knows he's not fooling anyone outside of Russia. So he can tell his own people that the war is going great, Russian losses are very low, NATO blew up Nordstream, Ukraine sabotaged the dam, etc., but he's not delusional enough to believe that bombastic statements on Russian TV will somehow fool Western intelligence services and let him off the hook. He can deny war crimes all he wants, but the ICC still issued warrants for his arrest. 

If any group that is supporting Russia in the Ukrainian conflict uses nuclear weapons and/or blows the nuclear plant — whether it's current or ex- Wagner mercenaries, Kadyrovite Chechens, the "People's Militias" of Luhansk & Donetsk, or supposedly "rogue" army conscripts —  it really doesn't matter how Putin tries to spin it to his own population, because Russians aren't the ones who will be retaliating. And I'm not sure that even trying to spin it domestically as "we didn't do it, it was some random guys who stole the nuclear weapons that we left lying around unguarded" is such a good look for him either.

The plausible denial just has to be strong enough for the West to have cover not to retaliate.  It doesn't have to be strong enough for the West to believe.

I mean, look at Crimea.  The US knew that the little green men were Russian soldiers but it was a small enough incursion with enough plausible denial and possibly plausible democratic legitimacy for us not to take any action.  Same with the carve outs from Moldova and Donbas and Luhansk. 

[Ausmumof3]

8 hours ago, Carol in Cal. said:

The plausible denial just has to be strong enough for the West to have cover not to retaliate.  It doesn't have to be strong enough for the West to believe.

I mean, look at Crimea.  The US knew that the little green men were Russian soldiers but it was a small enough incursion with enough plausible denial and possibly plausible democratic legitimacy for us not to take any action.  Same with the carve outs from Moldova and Donbas and Luhansk. 

Same as the plane. MH17 or whatever it was. 

[Lecka]

I think I get torn between wondering if people have human characteristics I can relate to, or if they are capable of Machiavellian planning, or just randomly doing stuff because they can.  
 

It’s a lot more disturbing to think someone who just sent so many people to the meat grinder *does not care.*. Then what further actions would this person take?  
 

Then it does get into thinking this person is capable of anything, and just willing to do anything to defend his own position.

 

All a turf battle because of the loyalty pledges and he was going to lose his little fiefdom??????  Ugh.