Ukraine

[ktgrok]

8 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

 I read the post several times and couldn't make it make sense, but then . . yeah. When I read it in light of the person's political/religious/conspiratorial leanings it was clearer to me it was more nuttery. FWIW, the person is a very well educated retired professional.

I often wonder if this stuff is the beginnings of dementia...or a result of medications that fog the brain, etc. 

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, Terabith said:

Bible studies can be held at any time of day, but the ones with beer or wine are almost always in the evening.  The ones in the morning are usually limited to coffee and water.  For awhile, I was part of a Theology on Tap group that met at a bar to chat about theological topics.  

I was going to mention Theology on Tap. 

In other "alcohol at church" events, the priest at the Episcopal church where my sister was confirmed (as an adult) held a party for the confirmed and their families after the Easter Vigil mass (that's the service they were confirmed in). The party was mostly champagne, wine, and chocolate - he'd given up both chocolate and alcohol for lent so he wanted to be SURE to get some as soon as the service was over - or at least that was the joke. 

And the fall festival/carnival thing my Catholic parish put on each year had a beer tent and wine tent - that thing had a line the whole time 🙂. And good beer too - some craft brews and such. Plus EXCELLENT food - lots of Catholics in the area who are first generation Philipino and Korean so there were foods from both those places, as well as a big tent with Italian food and one with Irish food 🙂

One of my favorite things about the RCC actually was the diversity...and the booze. 

[TravelingChris]

On 3/7/2022 at 11:30 AM, DoraBora said:

Oh, I understand that they're demanding a lot, but I suppose Russia could carpet bomb Ukraine now.

Donetsk, one of the cities mentioned in the terms is way into Ukraine's interior.  They evidently already operate, as I understand it, as a separate sort of city-state.  The separatist movement in that area has been ongoing for a number of years.

I understand not seeing Moscow as a trustworthy agent in any agreement, and the terms offered may not be practical, but if there's to be end to this situation in the near future, they'll have to "trust" the Russians at least a little.  

No,absolutely not. They trusted them to allow an agreed upon an agreement to have a peace corridor for civilians stuck in that M city in the south that was totally surrounded.  They tried it two different times w assurances.  They slaughtered the children and women who were going through.

The only thing that is sure to happen is that lots if countries will bd developing nuke weapons.  Japan has agreed to allow US nukes for the first time.

Sweden znd Finland want to join NATO. 

I don't believe Putin for a minute.

 

[Faith-manor]

Just now, TravelingChris said:

No,absolutely not. They trusted them to allow an agreed upon an agreement to have a peace corridor for civilians stuck in that M city in the south that was totally surrounded.  They tried it two different times w assurances.  They slaughtered the children and women who were going through.

The only thing that is sure to happen is that lots if countries will bd developing nuke weapons.  Japan has agreed to allow US nukes for the first time.

Sweden znd Finland want to join NATO. 

I don't believe Putin for a minute.

 

This.

And if Sweden and Finland join NATO, he will absolutely go to war with us over it. They have stayed out of NATO thus far because of his threats. Now they see how far that got Ukraine, and Russia has had its sights set on Finland for decades. They have a total no-win situation now. I am not sure I see a way out of WWIII as long as Putin is at the helm of Russia.

[TravelingChris]

On 3/7/2022 at 1:18 PM, Pam in CT said:

Grasping, and also, still dangerous. Again like the cornered hostage-taker.

 

Anyone who claims to have a simple, "just do ______!!!!" hot take to this is not thinking beyond one round in a multiple-round game. Into which it is critically important that new players, China or Iran or currently unforeseen etc, choose to enter.

 

Exactly there are things that can be done but nothing is a guarantee 4hat Putin will stop shelling 

But the while workf is watching that the Russian military is m6ch weaker than almost anyone thought.

And I bet they will be running out of missiles soon too.

[Carol in Cal.]

On 3/7/2022 at 11:26 AM, Pam in CT said:

Molly McKew's essay. 

(Ukraine-facing, not US-politics facing. She's lived in/done a lot of strategic consulting work for Georgia and the Baltics, particulary Estonia.)

I completely agree with parts 1 and 2 of this, part 3 still unpublished.  Completely.

Also, did anyone see the ABC interview with President Zelenskyy yesterday?  Please watch it if you can, and if it's too long, please at least watch the last 2 minutes or so, during which he has an opportunity to address us in the US, and does so in English.  

https://abcnews.go.com/US/video/zelenskyy-interview-david-muir-reporting-abc-news-exclusive-83309456

In many ways the situation reminds me of Kennedy's inaugural address, in which he said, among other things, 

"Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe to assure the survival and the success of liberty.

This much we pledge--and more.

To those old allies whose cultural and spiritual origins we share, we pledge the loyalty of faithful friends. United there is little we cannot do in a host of cooperative ventures. Divided there is little we can do--for we dare not meet a powerful challenge at odds and split asunder.

To those new states whom we welcome to the ranks of the free, we pledge our word that one form of colonial control shall not have passed away merely to be replaced by a far more iron tyranny. We shall not always expect to find them supporting our view. But we shall always hope to find them strongly supporting their own freedom--and to remember that, in the past, those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside."

Edited March 8, 2022 by Carol in Cal.

[Frances]

29 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

I often wonder if this stuff is the beginnings of dementia...or a result of medications that fog the brain, etc. 

But you have to be frequenting social media/news sites where this information is disseminated. It’s not like the person with possible dementia or brain fog is coming up with the stuff. They are only repeating what has been posted or broadcasted where they are reading/watching/listening. Hence the danger in supporting these types of places with our views and clicks.

[TravelingChris]

20 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

Some of the conservative Christians I know appear to be choosing to ignore the war completely. They're continuing to fully blame POTUS for gas price increases. No attempt at nuance, no acknowledgement of the war. Just blame. These aren't home schoolers, though.

While I am not bkaming the entire price increase on present administration, we did become energy independent with the last administration and we need to be drilling, build8ng pipelines, etc that the current administration rejectrd anx is still rejectung and instead wanting to rely on such govts as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.

[Pawz4me]

11 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

While I am not bkaming the entire price increase on present administration, we did become energy independent with the last administration and we need to be drilling, build8ng pipelines, etc that the current administration rejectrd anx is still rejectung and instead wanting to rely on such govts as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.

I don't really want to debate the issue, but if I did I'd need some cites that told me were ever truly "energy independent" due to production in normal demand times and not "energy independent" because demand hit rock bottom during the pandemic.

I know many have been brainwashed into viewing every single thing through a partisan political lens, but I don't think it works for this. I saw an interview today with some person representing the American oil industry. He said it simply boils down to the fact that production dwindled to almost nothing when demand hit rock bottom at the start of the pandemic, that oil producers didn't anticipate demand (normal demand, not war related) ramping up as quickly as it did. He said they can and will ramp up production, but that it's going to take another 8-12 months.

[prairiewindmomma]

29 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

While I am not bkaming the entire price increase on present administration, we did become energy independent with the last administration and we need to be drilling, build8ng pipelines, etc that the current administration rejectrd anx is still rejectung and instead wanting to rely on such govts as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.

Oil companies are going to expand domestic oil production this year, primarily in the Permian basin (west Texas/SE New Mexico) because it will financially make sense to do so for them. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51318

The domestic security concerns we have regarding energy independence are separate from how oil companies manage their affairs to maximize return to investors. The major companies made $174bn in profits last year and chose to prioritize returns to investors over lowering costs for consumers.  They are businesses, that's what they do: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/06/oil-companies-profits-exxon-chevron-shell-exclusive

Neither of those things really have anything to do with our current administration. It is the supply/demand nature of capitalism.  Ask any Texan---petroleum is a boom/bust industry, and whether people have jobs there is all dependent on the cost of crude. It was bust 2014, boom 2015, bust again, then boom until 2020, bust when the pandemic hit and people stopped driving as much....and now they are boom again. 

Edited March 8, 2022 by prairiewindmomma

[Lucy the Valiant]

25 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

While I am not bkaming the entire price increase on present administration, we did become energy independent with the last administration and we need to be drilling, build8ng pipelines, etc that the current administration rejectrd anx is still rejectung and instead wanting to rely on such govts as Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.

^ Worth repeating. 

8 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

I don't really want to debate the issue, but if I did I'd need some cites that told me were ever truly "energy independent" due to production in normal demand times and not "energy independent" because demand hit rock bottom during the pandemic.

I know many have been brainwashed into viewing every single thing through a partisan political lens, but I don't think it works for this. I saw an interview today with some person representing the American oil industry. He said it simply boils down to the fact that production dwindled to almost nothing when demand hit rock bottom at the start of the pandemic, that oil producers didn't anticipate demand (normal demand, not war related) ramping up as quickly as it did. He said they can and will ramp up production, but that it's going to take another 8-12 months.

2019: https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/gas-and-oil/the-united-states-was-energy-independent-in-2019-for-the-first-time-since-1957/

[Lucy the Valiant]

Or . . . 

Biden Sells Alaska Back to Russia So We Can Start Drilling for Oil Again There

 

😉 

 

 

[Mom_to3]

2 hours ago, Faith-manor said:

This.

And if Sweden and Finland join NATO, he will absolutely go to war with us over it. They have stayed out of NATO thus far because of his threats. Now they see how far that got Ukraine, and Russia has had its sights set on Finland for decades. They have a total no-win situation now. I am not sure I see a way out of WWIII as long as Putin is at the helm of Russia.

Putin is 69. This war shows that his military is not nearly as strong as expected. The sanctions will take their toll. If he intends to occupy Ukraine, it will take a huge amount of military and financial resources to suppress the population. How would he be in shape to start a war in Finland? Not saying WW3 won't happen, but it would be a disaster for most of us.

[DoraBora]

3 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

No,absolutely not. They trusted them to allow an agreed upon an agreement to have a peace corridor for civilians stuck in that M city in the south that was totally surrounded.  They tried it two different times w assurances.  They slaughtered the children and women who were going through.

The only thing that is sure to happen is that lots if countries will bd developing nuke weapons.  Japan has agreed to allow US nukes for the first time.

Sweden znd Finland want to join NATO. 

I don't believe Putin for a minute.

 

I understand.  I did think, though, that the hope was to give him some way out... to save face by negotiating an end to this, if possible.  Of course, things are changing rapidly.

[Katy]

The USA has a lot of oil, but much of it is more difficult to access, so for it to be worth it the price of oil has to be high. When the price drops again oil pumps in America slow and workers get laid off. I’m no expert but most of our friends in Oklahoma worked in oil. 

[DoraBora]

3 hours ago, Faith-manor said:

This.

And if Sweden and Finland join NATO, he will absolutely go to war with us over it. They have stayed out of NATO thus far because of his threats. Now they see how far that got Ukraine, and Russia has had its sights set on Finland for decades. They have a total no-win situation now. I am not sure I see a way out of WWIII as long as Putin is at the helm of Russia.

If Putin is as weak as some credible sources claim (apart from the nukes, anyway), there may be hope for avoiding another world war.  With the current state of his military (and the weight of economic sanctions), can he take on another country or three?  

[frogger]

2 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Oil companies are going to expand domestic oil production this year, primarily in the Permian basin (west Texas/SE New Mexico) because it will financially make sense to do so for them. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51318

The domestic security concerns we have regarding energy independence are separate from how oil companies manage their affairs to maximize return to investors. The major companies made $174bn in profits last year and chose to prioritize returns to investors over lowering costs for consumers.  They are businesses, that's what they do: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/06/oil-companies-profits-exxon-chevron-shell-exclusive

Neither of those things really have anything to do with our current administration. It is the supply/demand nature of capitalism.  Ask any Texan---petroleum is a boom/bust industry, and whether people have jobs there is all dependent on the cost of crude. It was bust 2014, boom 2015, bust again, then boom until 2020, bust when the pandemic hit and people stopped driving as much....and now they are boom again. 

Unless perfectly elastic or inelastic supply and demand curves will show some profit and some lower costs. The problem is psychologically people want to see 100% lower cost.

[frogger]

I had an argument on here during lock down that the US should top of the oil reserves while oil prices were at record lows but it was more important to make the oil companies suffer or some such nonsense. 

I find partisan politics and just "owning the other guy" be it a different political party or corporations very frustrating. Nothing like shooting yourself in the foot all the time.

[Pawz4me]

8 minutes ago, frogger said:

I had an argument on here during lock down that the US should top of the oil reserves while oil prices were at record lows but it was more important to make the oil companies suffer or some such nonsense. 

I find partisan politics and just "owning the other guy" be it a different political party or corporations very frustrating. Nothing like shooting yourself in the foot all the time.

They did.

I'm no Trump fan (massive under statement), but I thought that was a smart move.

[TechWife]

I had a longer post that I decided was way off topic. I’ll just drop the idea in that we need to use alternative energy sources. Everyone wails about the lack of infrastructure, but much of it isn’t hard to build & in comparison to drilling, refining & transporting oil, it’s likely cost effective infrastructure as well. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by TechWife

[Dianthus]

3 minutes ago, TechWife said:

I’m a little bit surprised how the current energy independence discussion doesn’t take into account electric vehicles. People keep saying the infrastructure isn’t there to support it.

 

I'm a little surprised that people don't discuss how most electricity is from power plants that burn fossil fuels. A very small part of our power is from wind, hydro, and solar.

Maybe another discussion could include the fossil fuels required to manufacture things like solar panels. Life cycle costs have short life, high cost and high fuel consumption.

Then we might discover that the process is not really conserving much.

We could also discuss how the US has some of the world's most careful environmental regulations, so outsourcing to polluting countries for oil production or for manufacturing goods is really causing more damage to our world's environment.

[TechWife]

6 minutes ago, Spirea said:

 

I'm a little surprised that people don't discuss how most electricity is from power plants that burn fossil fuels. A very small part of our power is from wind, hydro, and solar.

Maybe another discussion could include the fossil fuels required to manufacture things like solar panels. Life cycle costs have short life, high cost and high fuel consumption.

Then we might discover that the process is not really conserving much.

We could also discuss how the US has some of the world's most careful environmental regulations, so outsourcing to polluting countries for oil production or for manufacturing goods is really causing more damage to our world's environment.

Yeah - that’s why I modified my post - this is a discussion for another place. One worth having. Suffice it to say, improvement doesn’t mean elimination & there are ways to actually change the way we are doing things to address many of the points that you bring up. The situation isn’t stagnant.  Off topic for this thread though. 

[Sneezyone]

 

3 hours ago, Lucy the Valiant said:

^ Worth repeating. 

2019: https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/gas-and-oil/the-united-states-was-energy-independent-in-2019-for-the-first-time-since-1957/

Nothing much has changed. As usual, nuance is lost in simple pronouncements. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/03/08/surprise-the-us-is-still-energy-independent/?sh=477392f930b6

[frogger]

1 hour ago, Pawz4me said:

They did.

I'm no Trump fan (massive under statement), but I thought that was a smart move.

I just remembered arguing it but 2020 feels like a lifetime ago. 

[TravelingChris]

On 3/7/2022 at 8:46 PM, Ordinary Shoes said:

Back for a minute to address Mercy's question. We used to be Orthodox Christians and knew plenty of homeschoolers. Most support Russia. The divide is that the Greeks and the Ukrainians (obviously) support Ukraine while the others support Russia by different degrees. 

This is a tweet from an Orthodox Christian homeschooling mother. 

The patriarch of the Russian church gave a sermon yesterday where he implied that the war was about gay rights.

Some Catholics also support Russia. This is from an article on LifeSiteNews. 

I can only do sad.  I am so, so, so, very angry

[Lucy the Valiant]

1 hour ago, Sneezyone said:

 

Nothing much has changed. As usual, nuance is lost in simple pronouncements. https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/03/08/surprise-the-us-is-still-energy-independent/?sh=477392f930b6

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46776

USA is asking Saudi Arabia and Iran to increase oil production, instead of Alaska and North Dakota and Texas. (And I'll leave this alone / go to sleep. I think any serious discussion about energy needs to include nuclear, but I'm too tired tonight and sad for this world. 😞 )

[TravelingChris]

4 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

I don't really want to debate the issue, but if I did I'd need some cites that told me were ever truly "energy independent" due to production in normal demand times and not "energy independent" because demand hit rock bottom during the pandemic.

I know many have been brainwashed into viewing every single thing through a partisan political lens, but I don't think it works for this. I saw an interview today with some person representing the American oil industry. He said it simply boils down to the fact that production dwindled to almost nothing when demand hit rock bottom at the start of the pandemic, that oil producers didn't anticipate demand (normal demand, not war related) ramping up as quickly as it did. He said they can and will ramp up production, but that it's going to take another 8-12 months.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2021/11/14/is-the-us-energy-independent/?sh=5cc80f491387

Forbes says we were energy independent in 2019, which is before the pandemic, and lost it in mid 2020. So yes, as I said, it is not all Biden's fault or Dems fault at all.  However, I would be much happier with us getting oil from Canada through Keystone rather than Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc.  So US became energy dependent again when COVID struck and demand plummeted.  We need to drill, baby, drill and the current administration is not even doing what courts have ordered them to do which is to open up bids for drilling.  So while I do not blame them for the entire price rise, but the world price would be lower if we were producing more energy with the whole global market.

[TravelingChris]

2 hours ago, TechWife said:

I had a longer post that I decided was way off topic. I’ll just drop the idea in that we need to use alternative energy sources. Everyone wails about the lack of infrastructure, but much of it isn’t hard to build & in comparison to drilling, refining & transporting oil, it’s likely cost effective infrastructure as well. 

Yes, let;s build more nuclear.  But we still need gas for our cars, jets, etc

[SKL]

3 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

Yes, let;s build more nuclear.  But we still need gas for our cars, jets, etc

Seeing what the Russians are doing around Ukraine's nuclear power plants, that idea doesn't make me feel safer right now.

[Ting Tang]

4 minutes ago, SKL said:

Seeing what the Russians are doing around Ukraine's nuclear power plants, that idea doesn't make me feel safer right now.

Nuclear power scares me, too, for this reason. Just an accident terrifies me. 

[Frances]

Although not the main thrust of the article, another case of family in Russia believing government propaganda over accounts of family in Ukraine.

https://www.oregonlive.com/nation/2022/03/ukrainian-surrogate-carried-their-baby-now-what-will-happen-to-her.html

[Sneezyone]

55 minutes ago, Lucy the Valiant said:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46776

USA is asking Saudi Arabia and Iran to increase oil production, instead of Alaska and North Dakota and Texas. (And I'll leave this alone / go to sleep. I think any serious discussion about energy needs to include nuclear, but I'm too tired tonight and sad for this world. 😞 )

Yeah, because one is an immediately available resource whereas the others require development and building pipelines across lands natives don't want trespassed. Short-term vs. long-term. The oil companies have plenty of domestic leases that they're not using and which will not help in the immediate term. Asking the Saudis to release more from their already developed resources/stockpiles would actually help ease the supply issues in the immediate term. SMH.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Sneezyone

[Sneezyone]

49 minutes ago, TravelingChris said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2021/11/14/is-the-us-energy-independent/?sh=5cc80f491387

Forbes says we were energy independent in 2019, which is before the pandemic, and lost it in mid 2020. So yes, as I said, it is not all Biden's fault or Dems fault at all.  However, I would be much happier with us getting oil from Canada through Keystone rather than Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc.  So US became energy dependent again when COVID struck and demand plummeted.  We need to drill, baby, drill and the current administration is not even doing what courts have ordered them to do which is to open up bids for drilling.  So while I do not blame them for the entire price rise, but the world price would be lower if we were producing more energy with the whole global market.

For the love of all that is holy, pls. read more broadly and carefully. That SAME author updated his analysis this week. Which I linked to. And, now, AGAIN...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2022/03/08/surprise-the-us-is-still-energy-independent/?sh=4198fde30b66

This is a much more balanced and nuanced assessment of the state of play, particularly relevant given the fast-moving nature of events. Sticking to preferred narratives in the face of evidence to the contrary is...something.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Sneezyone

[mommyoffive]

US officials put Americans on alert for Russian cyberattacks as Ukraine war grows (msn.com)

[Melissa in Australia]

after the successful evacuation of 5000 people  from Sumy by bus and 100 private cars yesterday, another evacuation is underway right at this minute

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-09/ukraine-russia-war-live-blog-zelenskky-putin-kyiv/100893696

Ukrainians to be evacuated from Enerhodar as temporary ceasefire in force

The mayor of the southeastern Ukrainian city of Enerhodar said a temporary ceasefire is in force, allowing the evacuation of civilians to start through a "humanitarian corridor".

Mayor Dmytro Orlov said humanitarian supplies would be allowed into the city, which has been under fire from Russian forces.

"On the way back, buses will pick up civilians who want to leave," he said.

He said civilians would be able to go to the nearby city of Zaporizhzhia.

Ukrainians are also being evacuated from Sumy, in the country's north-east.

[Carrie12345]

8 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

Yes, let;s build more nuclear.  But we still need gas for our cars, jets, etc

 

8 hours ago, SKL said:

Seeing what the Russians are doing around Ukraine's nuclear power plants, that idea doesn't make me feel safer right now.

I would love to learn more about the pros and cons, but my brain tries not to let me. I had to drive in an unfamiliar area to get dd her Covid shot, and spotting cooling towers did a real number on my gut. It’s just a visceral reaction to something I don’t fully understand. (And that’s before all this.)

[*Jessica*]

If you don’t already read Heather Cox Richardson’s Letters from an American, I highly recommend you do. 
 

A piece from today’s letter addresses the Keystone pipeline, part of which is copied below…..

”Blaming today’s high prices on the cancellation of this spur of the Keystone Pipeline is a resort to that culture war. Even if Biden had not overturned Trump’s approval of the project, it would not be completed yet, and even if it were completed, there is no guarantee that it would have delivered more oil to the U.S., rather than to the ports for export elsewhere. The U.S. exports about half of its oil production to other countries, both because the crude we produce is hard for us to refine and because of the demand for it overseas. The Keystone pipeline was designed for export.”

[Ting Tang]

Has anyone ever seen Ukraine on Fire with Oliver Stone?   It gives a history, discusses US involvement, and he even interviewed Putin. We found it on YouTube. 
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_on_Fire    I haven’t researched opinions on it, but what we were able to watch was interesting. It was released in 2016. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by Ting Tang

[prairiewindmomma]

Chernobyl has lost power and has backup for only 48 hours:https://www.npr.org/live-updates/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-evacuation-mariupol 

[prairiewindmomma]

Ukraine crisis sparking food export bans in other countries: https://www.reuters.com/world/food-crisis-grows-spiralling-prices-spark-export-bans-2022-03-09/

[prairiewindmomma]

More on Chernobyl: https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-nuclear-firm-warns-radiation-risk-after-power-cut-occupied-chernobyl-2022-03-09/

[Pam in CT]

The issue of energy dependence / independence as a matter of national security is really important. As the issue is wider than just-oil and (God willing) longer-term than just-Ukraine, I think it merits its own thread, so this one can hold as a place for Ukraine-Russia updates and issues?

 

Like (sigh)

re other tools Putin has to work with, if he's not (yet?) willing to use nuclear weapons

10 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

US officials put Americans on alert for Russian cyberattacks as Ukraine war grows (msn.com)

Cyberattacks, which, if we think our lives are disrupted by increased gas prices...

 

and as this conflict continues out into the wheat-planting season in Ukraine, I'm also growing concerned about food commodities, both prices and (for the world, not so much the basically-food-independent US) absolute stocks.

8 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Ukraine crisis sparking food export bans in other countries: https://www.reuters.com/world/food-crisis-grows-spiralling-prices-spark-export-bans-2022-03-09/

Again with global commodity markets -- at a 50,000 foot leve, the US grows more-or-less "enough" food, though we import some hot-weather stuff and export some commodity stuff. But if global prices for wheat / corn / soy / rice soar, our agricultural distributors will take "our" wheat / corn / soy / rice and sell it to global buyers, if the price is higher than it is in the US -- that's capitalism. So the global price CANNOT be higher than the US price; the US price HAS to increase along with the global market -- again, that's capitalism. 

The US price of commodities has to (more or less, transportation & transaction costs and etc) track global market price levels, for oil or gas or wheat or soy -- whether NATO sends javelins or not, whether NATO provides a no-fly zone or not, whether we purchase oil from Russia or Saudi, whether Biden or Trump is POTUS. That's just how capitalism works in a world where prices are transparent across the world and materials can move around.

 

[prairiewindmomma]

Fertilizer for US crops is a big issue right now. Farmers are deciding what to plant here and word from back home is that between fertilizer and fuel crops some smaller farms are making different choices this year. 

[Spy Car]

1 hour ago, Ting Tang said:

Has anyone ever seen Ukraine on Fire with Oliver Stone?   It gives a history, discusses US involvement, and he even interviewed Putin. We found it on YouTube. 
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_on_Fire    I haven’t researched opinions on it, but what we were able to watch was interesting. It was released in 2016. 

I've seen it. Unfortunately.

It is one of the most disgusting pieces of propaganda that I have ever seen in my life.

Stone is buddy-buddy with Putin and he attempts to frame the Ukrainians as Nazis throughout the film. The man is a complete tool.

Save your time. This is rubbish.

Bill

 

[Ting Tang]

7 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

I've seen it. Unfortunately.

It is one of the most disgusting pieces of propaganda that I have ever seen in my life.

Stone is buddy-buddy with Putin and he attempts to frame the Ukrainians as Nazis throughout the film. The man is a complete tool.

Save your time. This is rubbish.

Bill

 

I am no fan of Putin. Him aside, I thought the US involvement aspect was interesting and it made me realize how volatile the region is. I thought it was slightly damning to both political parties.I have a Ukrainian wreath on the outside of my house, so I am very sympathetic to the people. 

[Spy Car]

15 minutes ago, Ting Tang said:

I am no fan of Putin. Him aside, I thought the US involvement aspect was interesting and it made me realize how volatile the region is. I thought it was slightly damning to both political parties.I have a Ukrainian wreath on the outside of my house, so I am very sympathetic to the people. 

It is a deeply untruthful propaganda piece.

I trust you are good hearted, but Oliver Stone is not.

Bill

 

[Pam in CT]

Long predating the current Ukraine crisis, there has long been concern on the part of US and NATO security and Interpol that Putin and his kleptocrat buddies, along with drug cartels and murky international weapons suppliers, have been utilizing cryptocurrency and associated markets to conduct illegal transactions without leaving the usual traces through the regular financial markets.

Now that the SWIFT sanctions have gone into effect, and Putin is left to raise & move funds to support Russia's war mobilization (salaries, food, gas, war-related and logistics supplies) outside the usual channels, the national security aspects of the this longstanding (but to my knowledge at least, mostly drug- and cartel-facing) problem is all of a suddent exponentially more critical.

 

President Biden just issued an executive order that hopefully will (begin to) address this:

The planning for this predates Russia's invasion, though the timing of the announcement of it seems (?) responsive to it. From the linked NYT:

Quote

President Biden signed an executive order on Wednesday that will direct the federal government to come up with a plan to regulate cryptocurrencies, recognizing their popularity and potential to destabilize traditional money and markets.

The order, under development for months, will coordinate efforts among financial regulators to better understand the risks and opportunities presented by digital assets, particularly in the areas of consumer protection, national security and illicit finance...

The order lays out a national policy for digital assets across six areas: consumer and investor protection; financial stability; illicit finance; U.S. leadership in the global financial system and economic competitiveness; financial inclusion; and responsible innovation...

The order comes amid concerns that Moscow will use cryptocurrency to evade punishing sanctions issued by the United States government over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A senior administration official who detailed the contents of the order but was not authorized to speak about it publicly told reporters on Tuesday evening that work on it predated the Ukraine war. Cryptocurrency would not be a viable way for Russia to circumvent sanctions, the official said.

But the geopolitical situation exacerbates longstanding concerns about the role of anonymity in cryptocurrency and the risk of illicit activity that results.

(bolding bc over on the Politics board we have a running party game trying to glean clues about the origins of media sources, LOL.)

[prairiewindmomma]

A bit more on European agriculture…Yara announcing a cutback on fertilizer production: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/business/food-costs-fertilizer-yara/index.html

 

[Pam in CT]

3 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

A bit more on European agriculture…Yara announcing a cutback on fertilizer production: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/09/business/food-costs-fertilizer-yara/index.html

 

Thank you for this - I hadn't really connected what oil/gas prices do to fertilizer production and how that (obvious, once you point it out) connection in turn cascades through a domino chain into agricultural commodity prices as well. 

(Which really only provides just what kind of gardener I am, LOL. Very. Small. Scale.)

We are connected, globally, whether we would so choose, or not.

[Pam in CT]

Here is the full text of the cryptocurrency EO. It does not take any immediate effect; it lays out timetables for different agencies to study and report on how the markets affect different policy interests (ie consumer protection, stability of overall financial markets, etc).

Section 7 addresses "illicit activities" and has -- I believe, I've only skimmed it -- the fastest timetables for relevant agencies to do this work:

Quote

Sec. 7.  Actions to Limit Illicit Finance and Associated National Security Risks. 

     (a)  Digital assets have facilitated sophisticated cybercrime‑related financial networks and activity, including through ransomware activity.  The growing use of digital assets in financial activity heightens risks of crimes such as money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing, fraud and theft schemes, and corruption.  These illicit activities highlight the need for ongoing scrutiny of the use of digital assets, the extent to which technological innovation may impact such activities, and exploration of opportunities to mitigate these risks through regulation, supervision, public‑private engagement, oversight, and law enforcement.
             (b)  Within 90 days of submission to the Congress of the National Strategy for Combating Terrorist and Other Illicit Financing, the Secretary of the Treasury, the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the Director of National Intelligence, and the heads of other relevant agencies may each submit to the President supplemental annexes, which may be classified or unclassified, to the Strategy offering additional views on illicit finance risks posed by digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, CBDCs, and trends in the use of digital assets by illicit actors.
             (c)  Within 120 days of submission to the Congress of the National Strategy for Combating Terrorist and Other Illicit Financing, the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Attorney General, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the Director of National Intelligence, and the heads of other relevant agencies shall develop a coordinated action plan based on the Strategy’s conclusions for mitigating the digital‑asset-related illicit finance and national security risks addressed in the updated strategy.  This action plan shall be coordinated through the interagency process described in section 3 of this order.  The action plan shall address the role of law enforcement and measures to increase financial services providers’ compliance with AML/CFT obligations related to digital asset activities.
             (d)  Within 120 days following completion of all of the following reports — the National Money Laundering Risk Assessment; the National Terrorist Financing Risk Assessment; the National Proliferation Financing Risk Assessment; and the updated National Strategy for Combating Terrorist and Other Illicit Financing — the Secretary of the Treasury shall notify the relevant agencies through the interagency process described in section 3 of this order on any pending, proposed, or prospective rulemakings to address digital asset illicit finance risks.  The Secretary of the Treasury shall consult with and consider the perspectives of relevant agencies in evaluating opportunities to mitigate such risks through regulation.