Florida COVID trends

[matrips]

Did you see the report showing that some of the Florida labs are only reporting positive results?  And not the negatives?  I wonder how badly that it skewing the rates.

So their positivity rate looks like 100% according to the data they send to the state; the lab said it was actually 9.6%.  Similar thing to at least one other Florida lab as well.  Positives are required to send to the state, but negatives aren’t.  Weird.

[cintinative]

23 minutes ago, matrips said:

Did you see the report showing that some of the Florida labs are only reporting positive results?  And not the negatives?  I wonder how badly that it skewing the rates.

So their positivity rate looks like 100% according to the data they send to the state; the lab said it was actually 9.6%.  Similar thing to at least one other Florida lab as well.  Positives are required to send to the state, but negatives aren’t.  Weird.

 

I'm confused. The state is not reporting 100% positivity. What am I missing from what you are saying?

ETA: I think what was meant is that some labs are submitting only positive data according to news reports. https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-florida-department-of-health-says-some-labs-have-not-reported-negative-covid-19-results

Edited July 14, 2020 by cintinative

[ktgrok]

35 minutes ago, matrips said:

Did you see the report showing that some of the Florida labs are only reporting positive results?  And not the negatives?  I wonder how badly that it skewing the rates.

So their positivity rate looks like 100% according to the data they send to the state; the lab said it was actually 9.6%.  Similar thing to at least one other Florida lab as well.  Positives are required to send to the state, but negatives aren’t.  Weird.

I did seethat, and I even emailed both the department of health and the woman who used to run the dashboard to try to get more information on how that could be skewing results. No one ever got back to me. 

And it seems they ARE required to report negatives, but this is the only illness where that is the case so they didn't realize it or something. 

[cintinative]

There is an opinion piece on Bloomberg by Cathy O'Neil which makes an attempt at predicting FL deaths. "Florida's Covid-19 deaths might rival New York's"

Quote from article:  "I forecast that by Tuesday August 4, Florida's seven day average of daily deaths will reach 600. And every week with a high case count--an average of about 10,000, assuming the positive case rate stays at about 18% -- will be followed about four weeks later by another 600-plus-death-per-day week. Of course I hope I am wrong, and that my forecast proves to be wildly high. This is a case where there will be zero satisfaction in getting it right." 

 

@square_25

[cintinative]

There was something on FB today (a "friend" posted) about a lab in FL not handling samples properly--not storing them at the proper temp.  All said, it sounds like a "blip" compared to the total amount of testing. The person who posted it was trying to discredit all of testing because of this, so she got snoozed. I have already tried with her and she wouldn't hear it. sigh.

Edited July 15, 2020 by cintinative

[ktgrok]

7 minutes ago, cintinative said:

There was something on FB today (a "friend" posted) about a lab in FL not handling samples properly--not storing them at the proper temp.  All said, it sounds like a "blip" compared to the total amount of testing. The person who posted it was trying to discredit all of testing because of this, so she got snoozed. I have already tried with her and she wouldn't hear it. sigh.

Found an article about it, but it is from way back in May, and they haven't used that lab since. Leaving out samples would mean more false negatives, not positives, so if your friends was thinking this was some conspiracy to falsely drive up case numbers, that would not be true. 

[cintinative]

6 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Found an article about it, but it is from way back in May, and they haven't used that lab since. Leaving out samples would mean more false negatives, not positives, so if your friends was thinking this was some conspiracy to falsely drive up case numbers, that would not be true. 

 

I didn't even notice the date, but you are right, it is from May. I commented on that part.  Thank you.

[ktgrok]

So, cross posting this...but to explain the crazy happening here,  i just saw a mom at my Catholic parish talking about how they are not sending their kid to the preschool this year because the teachers will be wearing masks. Students don't have to in preschool, that wasn't the issue, but they don't want their kid around a teacher in a mask. Said that they know there are risks with the virus, but the "proven developmental risks" of having a teacher in a mask outweigh that. Um, show me that study. And another mom said her kid was in the preschool summer school program at this SAME SCHOOL and two weeks in they had a classmate  test positive, and all kids in the class had to isolate for 14 days...after that they just didn't bother going back because they knew it would keep happening. 

so this woman,  AFTER hearing that the school has already had a preschooler test positive, was still thinking teachers should not wear masks in the preschool classroom!!!!

[Ausmumof3]

CNN: There are currently 54 hospitals that have reached ICU capacity in Florida and show zero ICU beds available, according to data released by the Agency for Health Care Administration (AHCA). Ten of those hospitals are in Miami-Dade County, the epicenter of the virus in the state. 

Another Florida 40 hospitals show ICU’s at 10% available capacity or less, according to the AHCA data.

Miami-Dade County officials reported a staggering 31% Covid-19 positivity rate on Tuesday, according to data released by the county's government.

In the past 13 days, the county has seen an increase in the number of Covid-19 patients being hospitalized (56%), in the number of ICU beds being used (65%) and in the use of ventilators (92%), according to the latest county data. 

This hospitalization data comes as the state continues to report new records. The Florida Department of Health reported at least 9,194 new cases and an additional 132 deaths on Tuesday, the most deaths in one day in the state.

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

So, cross posting this...but to explain the crazy happening here,  i just saw a mom at my Catholic parish talking about how they are not sending their kid to the preschool this year because the teachers will be wearing masks. Students don't have to in preschool, that wasn't the issue, but they don't want their kid around a teacher in a mask. Said that they know there are risks with the virus, but the "proven developmental risks" of having a teacher in a mask outweigh that. Um, show me that study. And another mom said her kid was in the preschool summer school program at this SAME SCHOOL and two weeks in they had a classmate  test positive, and all kids in the class had to isolate for 14 days...after that they just didn't bother going back because they knew it would keep happening. 

so this woman,  AFTER hearing that the school has already had a preschooler test positive, was still thinking teachers should not wear masks in the preschool classroom!!!!

 

I think wearing masks at school,  and those who object keeping their kids home is the right direction. It will help keep the school less crowded for others.

(And those who want or at least don’t object to masks may be somewhat more careful in other regards also.)

 

[Pen]

2 hours ago, cintinative said:

There was something on FB today (a "friend" posted) about a lab in FL not handling samples properly--not storing them at the proper temp.  All said, it sounds like a "blip" compared to the total amount of testing. The person who posted it was trying to discredit all of testing because of this, so she got snoozed. I have already tried with her and she wouldn't hear it. sigh.

 

All the improper handling tends to give false negatives.   

Potentially also a problem with mail in samples, and drive through where samples are deposited in bins during heat waves, etc. 

 

[EmseB]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN24G16L?__twitter_impression=true

In recent days, social media has shown maskless revelers dancing in the street, jammed into cars turned into ad hoc nightclubs, and crowding shoulder-to-shoulder, with drinks in both hands, in the outdoor seating areas of restaurants.

"It's a tale of two cities," said Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber. "Our residents are pretty compliant, but our visitors have been spotty and there are areas of the city where it feels like the only people there are those who don't think there's a virus."

...

In populous South Florida, hospital officials have reported emergency rooms and intensive care units nearing capacity. On Sunday, Florida reported more than 15,000 cases - a new state daily record that surpassed New York's April peak.

But a group of mask-and-bikini-clad vacationers from New York City said that was not enough to discourage them.

"We know there's a pandemic going on but it's not like you're not going to live your life," said Tamia Young, a 36-year-old postal worker visiting from Brooklyn with her mother and two daughters. "Everything is closed anyway, so it's not like you can even enjoy Miami."

[Lady Florida.]

10 minutes ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Can any of you tell me the situation of Pensacola beaches? I just saw that a friend on FB is vacationing there from TX. This person and her little girl visited my mom recently( before trip) and promised to see her again soon.  They didn’t mask, then, stayed indoors 3 hours. My mother is old, stubborn, and all the other things I’ve called her here, but I don’t want her to get sick. I’m hoping to convince her to not visit again, tho I haven’t had much luck so far.

It looks like they have mask requirements for businesses indoors. No masks outdoors. That there's any type of requirement is somewhat surprising to me. The Panhandle of Florida is very, um, southern. Parts of it are known as LA - Lower Alabama. Pensacola might be different since it's a larger city and there are both Navy and Air Force bases in the area.

https://www.cityofpensacola.com/3126/Face-Covering-Requirement

[stephanier.1765]

DH, a mail carrier, started to exhibit symptoms and was tested yesterday. I have symptoms as well and mine seem to be more severe but no where near a level where I want to see a doctor or go to a hospital. I prefer not to get tested unless the symptoms worsen. As of now, I'm going to wait and see what his results are. If his are negative and my symptoms improve, then I won't bother with testing.

My grandson is due next month. It's a good thing I already canceled my trip to see him.

[Lady Florida.]

Wednesday - 

10,181 new cases, and we surpassed 300,000 total cases.

112 new deaths. Of those, 27 were in Central Florida, with my county reporting 6 new deaths, second only to Orange County (9) even though both our population and number of cases is much smaller than theirs. Rolling seven day average for the state is 92 deaths per day, triple the toll from one month ago (31). Florida has the number 2 death rate, only just behind Texas which has 25% more people than we do. 

Oh, and Disney continued its reopening plan with Epcot and Hollywood Studios opening today. Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom already opened. 🙄

Edited July 15, 2020 by Lady Florida.

[Junie]

29 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

 

Oh, and Disney continued its reopening plan with Epcot and Hollywood Studios opening today. Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom already opened. 🙄

Well, I don't think it's wise for them to open at all, but if they are going to open I wish they would space the openings out for a month so that they could see if how much it was affecting community spread

[importswim]

1 hour ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Can any of you tell me the situation of Pensacola beaches? I just saw that a friend on FB is vacationing there from TX. This person and her little girl visited my mom recently( before trip) and promised to see her again soon.  They didn’t mask, then, stayed indoors 3 hours. My mother is old, stubborn, and all the other things I’ve called her here, but I don’t want her to get sick. I’m hoping to convince her to not visit again, tho I haven’t had much luck so far.

I live close by. Pensacola requires masks in businesses but I haven't seen anything about Pensacola Beach (I'd assume they are probably part of P'cola proper but not sure). I would say that this is a very recent mandate and I agree with the person above who talked about the culture here. Trying not to make generalizations, but most everyone I've come into contact with (remember, I live in the area) doesn't believe that Covid-19 is a big deal and that forced masking is taking away "our freedoms".  I have seen a LOT more people comply with masking now that the cities of Pensacola and Gulf Breeze have required it (before that I saw very few masks). I'd, at the very least, ask your friends to wait 2 weeks before seeing your Mom.

[Kanin]

1 hour ago, stephanier.1765 said:

DH, a mail carrier, started to exhibit symptoms and was tested yesterday. I have symptoms as well and mine seem to be more severe but no where near a level where I want to see a doctor or go to a hospital. I prefer not to get tested unless the symptoms worsen. As of now, I'm going to wait and see what his results are. If his are negative and my symptoms improve, then I won't bother with testing.

My grandson is due next month. It's a good thing I already canceled my trip to see him.

Oh, I'm sorry. Hope you're not feeling too bad. What are your symptoms, if you don't mind me asking?

[ktgrok]

4 hours ago, EmseB said:

 

"We know there's a pandemic going on but it's not like you're not going to live your life," said Tamia Young

um...unless you are dead...not going to be living your life then, right?

 

[cintinative]

2 hours ago, Seasider too said:

Where are the demographics of the death cases? Do we know if this is all from random general citizens, or have there been hotspots like care homes or factories? I’d like to know ages, etc. 

These kind of specifics seem hard to find. 

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/county_reports_latest.pdf

[stephanier.1765]

4 hours ago, Kanin said:

Oh, I'm sorry. Hope you're not feeling too bad. What are your symptoms, if you don't mind me asking?

Weary to the bone, massive headache, sore throat, cough and diarrhea. It's hard to know if my aches and pains are part of it since I have fibromyalgia but my fibro pain has been off the scale, as well.

ETA: I just read that in Jacksonville, a city of 900,000+, has had over 300,000 cases. 

ETA: I am totally wrong about the city's Covid cases. I shouldn't trust what I read when my head hurts so much.

Edited July 15, 2020 by stephanier.1765

[ktgrok]

8 minutes ago, stephanier.1765 said:

Weary to the bone, massive headache, sore throat, cough and diarrhea. It's hard to know if my aches and pains are part of it since I have fibromyalgia but my fibro pain has been off the scale, as well.

ETA: I just read that in Jacksonville, a city of 900,000+, has had over 300,000 cases.

And set to host a national political convention!

[ktgrok]

7 day rolling average of hospitalizations and deaths. 

[stephanier.1765]

3 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

And set to host a national political convention!

Oops, I got that wrong. That's what I get for reading the news through the lens of a headache. Florida has had 300,000, not Jacksonville. 🤦‍♀️

[PeterPan]

Well apparently Florida got our governor's attention, because he came on tonight and gave a real heart to heart urging people to do what they can. Honestly it's something I wish Trump would do. The tone will probably be very well received. https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2020/07/15/coronavirus-ohio-gov-mike-dewine-give-5-30-p-m-speech-how-ohio-handling-covid-19/5442220002/

So Florida has now become the pariah other governor's use...

Edited July 15, 2020 by PeterPan

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.foxnews.com/health/over-31-percent-florida-children-tested-florida-positive-covid-19-report.amp?__twitter_impression=true
 

Fox News and all that but they are reporting the positivity rate in kids in Florida at 31 pc.  I’m guessing people are less likely to get kids tested unless they’re quite likely to have it so maybe that explains why the positivity rate in kids is higher than the general population?

[Ausmumof3]

heat map of age distribution for Florida showing change over time.  

[Kanin]

14 hours ago, stephanier.1765 said:

Weary to the bone, massive headache, sore throat, cough and diarrhea. It's hard to know if my aches and pains are part of it since I have fibromyalgia but my fibro pain has been off the scale, as well.

ETA: I just read that in Jacksonville, a city of 900,000+, has had over 300,000 cases. 

ETA: I am totally wrong about the city's Covid cases. I shouldn't trust what I read when my head hurts so much.

That sounds miserable. I hope you're feeling 1 day better now!! 

[ktgrok]

14 hours ago, stephanier.1765 said:

Oops, I got that wrong. That's what I get for reading the news through the lens of a headache. Florida has had 300,000, not Jacksonville. 🤦‍♀️

I already knew the numbers, so my brain saw Florida, even though you typed Jacksonville. I knew what you meant. 

[mumto2]

15 hours ago, stephanier.1765 said:

Weary to the bone, massive headache, sore throat, cough and diarrhea. It's hard to know if my aches and pains are part of it since I have fibromyalgia but my fibro pain has been off the scale, as well.

ETA: I just read that in Jacksonville, a city of 900,000+, has had over 300,000 cases. 

ETA: I am totally wrong about the city's Covid cases. I shouldn't trust what I read when my head hurts so much.

Just wanted to check on you today.  I hope both of you are feeling a bit better!

[Lady Florida.]

Another day of record deaths - 156. Previous one day record was Tuesday at 132.

https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-coronavirus-cases-july-16/33336402

[stephanier.1765]

2 hours ago, mumto2 said:

Just wanted to check on you today.  I hope both of you are feeling a bit better!

The headache is better. Throat and lymph nodes hurt more (a lot). Cough is smaller but feels deeper, if that makes any sense. I think DH feels better, but he did say the same thing about his throat. Oh, we both have ear aches now too. It's crazy. Some of the symptoms seem Covid while others seem more like a cold. Thanks for asking. 😊

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, Lady Florida. said:

Another day of record deaths - 156. Previous one day record was Tuesday at 132.

https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-coronavirus-cases-july-16/33336402

And cases over 13,000. Orange county had nearly 1,400 today. 

Orange County votes tomorrow on opening schools. Please pray. The health department still refuses to issue anything saying it isn't safe to open - and if the schools don't open without that statement they lose state funding due to the stupid emergency order. There MAY be wiggle room in that the state health department keeps issuing generic guidelines that say to avoid crowds and confined spaces..which obviously schools have. So I'm hoping they cite that advice, from the health department, as their reason not to open, and that it stands legally. 

[mumto2]

43 minutes ago, stephanier.1765 said:

The headache is better. Throat and lymph nodes hurt more (a lot). Cough is smaller but feels deeper, if that makes any sense. I think DH feels better, but he did say the same thing about his throat. Oh, we both have ear aches now too. It's crazy. Some of the symptoms seem Covid while others seem more like a cold. Thanks for asking. 😊

I am glad you are both doing OK today.  Again hugs......hope hubby gets his test back soon so you know.

fwiw, I had a lymph node/ear thing going on a couple of weeks ago with lots of congestion.  I am prone to ear infections so had everything to self treat and did.  The lymph nodes were noticeable......as in my oblivious son noticed my jaw was swollen on his own.  

[ktgrok]

The number of people being treated for COVID-19 at hospitals jumped by 884 on Thursday, according to the Florida Agency for Healthcare Administration. The total is 9,099 patients statewide, as of 12:01 p.m. (thats currently hospitalized, right now, for primary Covid infection...that doesn't count people that are hopsitalized for other things and also have Covid) https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coronavirus-deaths-cases-thursday-july-16-20200716-dpsxfldh65hzvfixrxnmnkqj2u-story.html

[ktgrok]

As more patients flood into local emergency rooms, South Florida hospitals say they are dangerously low on remdesivir, a drug that has shown promise in treating patients with COVID-19.

Doctors now are forced into daily decisions about who does or does not get the drug, which can shorten hospital stays and speed recovery as well as decrease the chance a patient may die.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-remdesivir-shortage-20200716-eczmy5h5sndeja2ogoxfnrqtfm-story.html

[mommyoffive]

2 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

And cases over 13,000. Orange county had nearly 1,400 today. 

Orange County votes tomorrow on opening schools. Please pray. The health department still refuses to issue anything saying it isn't safe to open - and if the schools don't open without that statement they lose state funding due to the stupid emergency order. There MAY be wiggle room in that the state health department keeps issuing generic guidelines that say to avoid crowds and confined spaces..which obviously schools have. So I'm hoping they cite that advice, from the health department, as their reason not to open, and that it stands legally. 

Didn't some counties in Florida go virtual?  I thought I heard that that this morning  

[ktgrok]

29 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Didn't some counties in Florida go virtual?  I thought I heard that that this morning  

Yes, Broward and Palm Beach are doing virtual, from what I hear. But supposedly their Departments of Health were willing to say it wasn't safe to reopen, so that gets them out of the mandate from the state. 

Here, our local health departments are saying that setting school policy isn't their job, and refuse to weigh in. 

[Lady Florida.]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

Yes, Broward and Palm Beach are doing virtual, from what I hear. But supposedly their Departments of Health were willing to say it wasn't safe to reopen, so that gets them out of the mandate from the state. 

Here, our local health departments are saying that setting school policy isn't their job, and refuse to weigh in. 

Yep. Their health departments can't twist anything or pass the buck because it's way too obvious how unsafe it is to send kids to school in those counties. I'm surprised Miami-Dade isn't doing the same though I admit I didn't look into it too closely. Health departments in other counties, including most Central Florida counties refuse to take responsibility and pass it off to the school boards. The school boards say they're looking to the health department for guidance. Nobody wants to show some ba11s and just make the call.

Edited July 16, 2020 by Lady Florida.

[mommyoffive]

36 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Yes, Broward and Palm Beach are doing virtual, from what I hear. But supposedly their Departments of Health were willing to say it wasn't safe to reopen, so that gets them out of the mandate from the state. 

Here, our local health departments are saying that setting school policy isn't their job, and refuse to weigh in. 

Poop, I was hoping they were starting the trend and then the others could easily follow.    

[My3Munchkins]

2 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Yes, Broward and Palm Beach are doing virtual, from what I hear. But supposedly their Departments of Health were willing to say it wasn't safe to reopen, so that gets them out of the mandate from the state. 

Here, our local health departments are saying that setting school policy isn't their job, and refuse to weigh in. 

I live in Broward County. 

The Palm Beach County Health Director called for virtual  but won't put that in writing. 

In Broward County the superintendent of schools has recommended virtual. 

Things are still up in the air in both counties. 

Edited July 16, 2020 by My3Munchkins

[cintinative]

4 minutes ago, My3Munchkins said:

I live in Broward County. 

The Palm Beach County Health Director called for virtual  but won't put that in writing. 

In Broward County the superintendent of schools has recommended virtual. 

Things are still up in the air in both counties. 

 

Thank you for clarifying this. My brother's family is in Broward, and my SIL is a teacher. I saw that the superintendent recommended virtual, but based on threads here, it didn't sound like that was enough to hold.  Do you have children in public school in Broward? 

[TCB]

2 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Yes, Broward and Palm Beach are doing virtual, from what I hear. But supposedly their Departments of Health were willing to say it wasn't safe to reopen, so that gets them out of the mandate from the state. 

Here, our local health departments are saying that setting school policy isn't their job, and refuse to weigh in. 

What is so sad about this whole situation is how few have been willing to step up and lead and make decisions. So much passing the buck. We are really lacking leaders! How did it get to this state! 

[Corraleno]

24 minutes ago, TCB said:

What is so sad about this whole situation is how few have been willing to step up and lead and make decisions. So much passing the buck. We are really lacking leaders! How did it get to this state! 

It doesn't exactly encourage leadership when the officials that do make hard decisions are bombarded with death threats and have to deal with armed protestors staking out their homes and putting their families at risk. ☹️

[My3Munchkins]

1 hour ago, cintinative said:

 

Thank you for clarifying this. My brother's family is in Broward, and my SIL is a teacher. I saw that the superintendent recommended virtual, but based on threads here, it didn't sound like that was enough to hold.  Do you have children in public school in Broward? 

My children aren't in public school but I'm watching closely to see what the public schools do. I think what they do will impact our extracurricular activities and even co-ops. 

On 7/13/2020 at 7:35 PM, Ktgrok said:

if my next book ends up with weird edits, y'all know why

 

Forgive the off-topic post, but I think a lot of us are weirded out by images of the former times, with people not wearing masks, in large groups, casually being close to each other, in large groups indoors, etc. etc. etc.

So, what's it like to write of love before the time of covid? I assume your current book is set before covid. Is it weird to write about this time?  Cathartic?  Difficult?  Would you ever set a book during quarantine?  Or is it nice to escape to a world where this never happened?

[Ausmumof3]

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/507767-florida-temporarily-shutters-emergency-operations-center-after-12?amp&__twitter_impression=true
 

Florida’s emergency operations centre had to close for deep cleaning after 12 cases 

[JennyD]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/507767-florida-temporarily-shutters-emergency-operations-center-after-12?amp&__twitter_impression=true
 

Florida’s emergency operations centre had to close for deep cleaning after 12 cases 

 

Not at all specific to Florida, but this whole 'close for deep cleaning' thing is seeming increasingly beside the point.  

[Ausmumof3]

44 minutes ago, JennyD said:

 

Not at all specific to Florida, but this whole 'close for deep cleaning' thing is seeming increasingly beside the point.  

I think it’s really more close for 24 hours to get fresh air through the building and look like we’re actually doing something even if we aren’t.  

[cintinative]

128 more deaths reported for the state today

Broward hasn't had any deaths reported for a couple of days, but reported 13 today.  =(