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Florida COVID trends


cintinative
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19 hours ago, cintinative said:

I am so confused.  So, were they including the antigen results before, or when are they adding them, or ??@Ktgrok

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/florida-health-officials-say-antigen-test-results-will-be-included-in-future-covid-reports/2258039/

@Ktgrok

@Lady Florida.

Do you all know what this means? I think it got missed in the thread.

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Just now, cintinative said:

@Ktgrok

@Lady Florida.

Do you all know what this means? I think it got missed in the thread.

I don't know. I think @Ktgrok has kept up with this stuff better than I have.

The governor actually said NY did it wrong by staying shut down, so I don't see any chance of us getting stricter measures. He turned it over to doctors now.

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2 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

The governor actually said NY did it wrong by staying shut down, so I don't see any chance of us getting stricter measures. He turned it over to doctors now.

 

just wow. I don't even know how to respond to that. 

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50 minutes ago, cintinative said:

@Ktgrok

@Lady Florida.

Do you all know what this means? I think it got missed in the thread.

I think it is just crappy reporting - they mean antibody tests, not antigen tests, I think? Because PCR tests ARE antigen tests. Antibody tests are the other kind.  But we were already sort of including those, and you can look at the data and see that the antibody tests are a tiny fraction of the positives. 

Or maybe they mean they are no longer including antibody tests, which would be good?

But PCR tests are a kind of antigen test. Anything that looks for active virus is an antigen test. 

Edited by Ktgrok
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1 hour ago, Terabith said:

This doesn't surprise me. I live in a FL beach town and people here STILL think Covid19 isn't a big deal and it's "all going to go away after the election" - a quote that I heard in person the other day and the people in the group I was with agreed. Sigh. I'm REALLY glad we homeschool.

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14 hours ago, Terabith said:

It came shortly after the president tweeted about schools reopening. 

And positivity rates are up today, again. Mind you they cut back testing it seems, so cases are down, but positive rate is up. Just over 16% positive rate for both the state and my county. 

The order does say that health departments can issue something saying it is unsafe, and then schools don't have to open, but what then was the point of this order? 

 

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13 hours ago, importswim said:

This doesn't surprise me. I live in a FL beach town and people here STILL think Covid19 isn't a big deal and it's "all going to go away after the election" - a quote that I heard in person the other day and the people in the group I was with agreed. Sigh. I'm REALLY glad we homeschool.

The last homeschool event I went to, a lake outing before the shut down, someone there was saying Covid 19 was caused by flu vaccines and Bill Gates. Sigh. 

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https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/44-florida-hospitals-at-icu-capacity.html?fbclid=IwAR2ZgU4g-jWNNy3iQ2OOId1C9XrErnKDeNpZVODJm5vWON44Ei0AoMWnk3Y

44 hospitals are at ICU capacity. These are the ones near me that have 0 adult beds available (the number below the name is how many beds total, none of which are available now)

AdventHealth East Orlando
21 ICU beds

Dr. P. Phillips Hospital (Orlando)
7 ICU beds

Orlando Regional Medical Center
58 ICU beds

Edited by Ktgrok
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5 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

The last homeschool event I went to, a lake outing before the shut down, someone there was saying Covid 19 was caused by flu vaccines and Bill Gates. Sigh. 

Yes, I've heard this from people in person here as well. This whole time I've been questioning whether I need to back off friendships because of how crazy everyone has become. Sigh is definitely right. 😞

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5 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

It came shortly after the president tweeted about schools reopening. 

And positivity rates are up today, again. Mind you they cut back testing it seems, so cases are down, but positive rate is up. Just over 16% positive rate for both the state and my county. 

The order does say that health departments can issue something saying it is unsafe, and then schools don't have to open, but what then was the point of this order? 

 

 

What rules and mitigation strategies are they planning to put in place?

 

Masks? 

Physical distancing?

Hand washing?

 

Ideally all 3? 

 

 

 

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21 hours ago, Terabith said:

Dss and the family came here last Friday - our first visit with the grandkids in person since Feb. 29th.

Ddil was talking about their county's plans for schools opening and how they were going to have 3 choices - at school, online, and hybrid. Obviously that's off the table now. They're in Osceola County and I haven't heard anything about the plan now with the executive order in place.

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2 hours ago, Pen said:

 

What rules and mitigation strategies are they planning to put in place?

 

Masks? 

Physical distancing?

Hand washing?

 

Ideally all 3? 

 

 

 

Um, none of the above?

The only additional money will be to help "learning gaps" from the school missed during the shut down. No additional funds for extra staff, smaller classes, extra cleaning supplies, more janitorial staff, nothing. 

A person I am close to who I know to be 100 percent trustworthy was in the school district meeting. Their big concession for the pandemic was painting arrows on the floor so kids know which way to walk. Voila, problem solved! Totally safe now. 

Sigh. 

 

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25 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

Dss and the family came here last Friday - our first visit with the grandkids in person since Feb. 29th.

Ddil was talking about their county's plans for schools opening and how they were going to have 3 choices - at school, online, and hybrid. Obviously that's off the table now. They're in Osceola County and I haven't heard anything about the plan now with the executive order in place.

To be fair, they can still do online via FLVS or their county version. The mandate is schools have to open, not that students have to attend. Your grandkids can still go online, but no, I don't think hybrid will be an option. 

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Dh has suspected something was  just plain off with the numbers being reported in Florida for a few days............he learned how understated some counties rate of negative numbers are after he found this newspaper article discussing the county where the University of Florida is located.  Many testing sites including the University of Florida and its hospitals are not reporting the number of negatives according to this article https://alachuachronicle.com/covid-test-positivity-is-not-a-meaningful-statistic-because-not-all-negatives-are-reported/.  When Dh went clicking around he found an amazing number of testing locations for the entire State either had 100% positive tests or 0%.  No in between.ISince this is a statewide issue our positive rate is likely way too high.....in this county at least 2100 negative tests were not included in the negativity rate.  The Florida positivity rate most likely needs to be adjusted downwards.  See the quote.........

We know that not all of the local negatives are being reported because UF reports the results of its employee testing here; we log that number on a spreadsheet when it changes, and the number of total tests increased by 3,527 from July 4 to today (with only one positive test). Over that same period, the state reported an increase of 1,423 tests (with 195 positive tests). 

That means that the official positivity rate for those three days was 13.7%, but when you add the unreported negatives from UF, it becomes 3.9% (and that’s only adding the negatives we know about; there are almost certainly others). That paints a very different picture of community spread. 

If negative tests aren’t reported, they aren’t added to the total number of tests. That makes the reported positivity rate higher than the actual positive percentage of all tests performed. This can easily be seen when you look at the hospitals reporting 100% positive tests. If they reported 50 positives with 100% positive tests, for example, the number of tests reported to the state is 50. If they did 500 tests to get those 50 positives, 450 tests were not reported to the state and were not added to the total number of tests reported by the state.

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22 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

 

We know that not all of the local negatives are being reported because UF reports the results of its employee testing here; we log that number on a spreadsheet when it changes, and the number of total tests increased by 3,527 from July 4 to today (with only one positive test). Over that same period, the state reported an increase of 1,423 tests (with 195 positive tests). 

 

I just looked at that website - it says it was last updated July 3rd. So I don't see how you can compare the increase between July 4th to July 7th on the state's report with this website, if it hasn't updated during that time at all?

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59 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

 

That means that the official positivity rate for those three days was 13.7%, but when you add the unreported negatives from UF, it becomes 3.9% (and that’s only adding the negatives we know about; there are almost certainly others). That paints a very different picture of community spread. 

 

 

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I don't know if this is true for that specific county, but this doesn't pass a sanity check for all of Florida. That would imply that Florida is running 3 times as many tests as reported. So, what, over 100,000 tests? Even NY is not running that many tests, and it's extremely easy to get a test in NY nowadays. 

This is the data from Alachua County, where UF is. And it doesn't match up to what is being claimed - positivity rate was not 13.7%, to start with. And like I said, that UF site hasn't even been updated in the time period we are discussing. 

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Ok, digging into the state list of labs and their results, there are some that only have positive results - but it also says that patients may get more than one test, by different labs - are those confirmation tests? Where they already were positive, but it gets double checked? Because they only count a person positive once. Very intriguing, going to ask the DOH to fin out. 

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3 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

To be fair, they can still do online via FLVS or their county version. The mandate is schools have to open, not that students have to attend. Your grandkids can still go online, but no, I don't think hybrid will be an option. 

Yeah, I'm learning more as I read about it. Hopefully each county will figure something out to still allow online school. I thought I read that the state says hybrid isn't an option.

The 8yo would like to homeschool forever while the 6yo social butterfly is anxious to go back. Last year was his first year in "real school" (his term to distinguish between preschool and required school) so he was disappointed it got cut short.

Edited by Lady Florida.
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6 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

Yeah, I'm learning more as I read about it. Hopefully each county will figure something out to still allow online school. I thought I read that the state says hybrid isn't an option.

The 8yo would like to homeschool forever while the 6yo social butterfly is anxious to go back. Last year was his first year in "real school" (his term to distinguish between preschool and required school) so he was disappointed it got cut short.

FLVS online option will be available everywhere. But it will be all online. So choice will be FLVS, or in person, no hybrid, as of now. 

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11 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Ok, digging into the state list of labs and their results, there are some that only have positive results - but it also says that patients may get more than one test, by different labs - are those confirmation tests? Where they already were positive, but it gets double checked? Because they only count a person positive once. Very intriguing, going to ask the DOH to fin out. 

Plus, I was wondering how easy it is to get tested there.   Are they mostly testing people that have symptoms, in which case you can expect more positives?  Or are they testing based on contacts as well, in which case you'd expect more of a mix?

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2 hours ago, Where's Toto? said:

Plus, I was wondering how easy it is to get tested there.   Are they mostly testing people that have symptoms, in which case you can expect more positives?  Or are they testing based on contacts as well, in which case you'd expect more of a mix?

It just depends. For a while itwas easier to be tested, but now it is getting harder as they run out of tests often. And some locations have plenty, and some have hours long waits to get tested. 

We are NOT contact tracing to any real extent. Orange county, population 1.3 million or something like that, has about 20 full time public health workers total - and some of those are doing contract tracing, but not all of them. When you have from 400-1,110 cases a day in the county, it isn't even possible to pretend they can make headway. They were hoping to get Covid grant money to hire another 10-20 people. Still no where near enough. Anecdotally, one of our State Representatives is positive, and got a call from a contract tracer, and when she tried to call back the number was disconnected and she hasn't been able to get ahold of anyone else to talk to. 

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29 Melbourne and Palm Bay firefighters are now in quarantine. Of those, if I read the article correctly, it was because 10 total tested positive and the rest are quarantining while waiting for test results. Dss is a firefighter for our county (Brevard) but they often overlap. The county has some equipment and trained personnel that some cities don't have, so they often contract with the county for certain services. So far he says he's not worried, but I'm worried about him.

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/07/09/29-melbourne-palm-bay-firefighters-out-work-coronavirus-quarantine/3286482001/

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My best friend's brother is a LEO, and one of the people he has been working with is positive. He's waiting on his own test results. He has a wife and 4 kids. (and his wife is meanwhile pushing for them to go on a cruise in September, while grandparents watch their kids....he's worried about his health,a nd trying to explain that if their ship gets quarantined and they can't get back off, what happens to their kids??)

 

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19 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Yup. This was totally predictable. 

 

I think it is predictable that things will get worse—possibly a lot worse, certainly a lot worse if people keep acting the way they are now— before they get better.

 

 I have prepared myself emotionally for likely worse until 2022. 

 

We can individually act in ways to mitigate somewhat for ourselves and in more minor ways for society as a whole.

I’ve been having some sense that letter writing calls, etc has been helping—though I am currently in a less populated  state.    But it seems at least worth trying to do that, to ask for mandatory masks in public and in schools, for example.

I wonder if more mask making for schools projects would be a good idea now. “A mask for every student initiative.”   (And “two masks for every teacher”?) Maybe I should find the mask thread and float that there.  

 

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I think it is in the description - the one with the lower positivity only counts positive tests once per person. The one with the higher one counts positive tests period, even if they have had a positive test before, on a previous day. 

so if someone tested positive on a Monday, they are counted in Monday's reports in both those charts. But if they feel better, and get tested again on the following Saturday, and are still positive, the state report would include them, the other one, with the lower rate, would not count that positive result, because they only count people, not tests. 

 

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My brother and his wife live in the general Orlando area (don't remember exactly, one of those Winter something places) and took a vacation to Tampa.  Right now.  A car drive requiring stops, eating in restaurants, staying in hotels.  😒  They are both in their mid-50's but are also both morbidly obese with high blood pressure and high cholesterol and pre-diabetic.   Feel like beating their heads together.

 

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22 hours ago, Pen said:

I wonder if more mask making for schools projects would be a good idea now. “A mask for every student initiative.”   (And “two masks for every teacher”?) Maybe I should find the mask thread and float that there.  

We have a great community mask-making effort here, but when I asked specifically about whether we should make masks for schools, I hear that the school is going to provide masks for teachers (but no idea what they're providing). Kids will be doing two days per week in school and last I heard we can't require masks but can recommend them. I would love for every student in my school to be given two masks, one for each day. Nothing is happening toward that and there's still so much up in the air about what fall will look like that I don't think people are thinking on that level yet. But I still think 2 masks per student is the right number. I'm guessing staff are in the building 4 or 5 days/week. Since I make my own masks, I will probably make sure I have at least 5 masks with ties (elastic begins to hurt my ears after awhile). Maybe 10 if I change at lunch. All that assuming I still have a job--lovely budget cuts.

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20 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

My brother and his wife live in the general Orlando area (don't remember exactly, one of those Winter something places) and took a vacation to Tampa.  Right now.  A car drive requiring stops, eating in restaurants, staying in hotels.  😒  They are both in their mid-50's but are also both morbidly obese with high blood pressure and high cholesterol and pre-diabetic.   Feel like beating their heads together.

 

Typical. Seriously. I've seen SO many people posting pictures of vacations. And my doctor was debating going to an indoor water park with his family. My own sister has taken multiple trips around the state,with her kids. 

I'm one of the only people I know not doing that. 

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3 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Typical. Seriously. I've seen SO many people posting pictures of vacations. And my doctor was debating going to an indoor water park with his family. My own sister has taken multiple trips around the state,with her kids. 

I'm one of the only people I know not doing that. 

Part of my family went from their hotspot in Texas to vacation at a hotspot in FL. I can’t understand it at all.

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OH my...I looked at the city facebook page today. People talking about getting testing....y'all - a 3-4 hour wait was considered really good, but they reccomend you have at least half a tank of gas as you wait in line in your car that whole time. In this heat, that means only people with working A/C - yesterday's feels like was 104, and they require you to keep the windows closed. And results are taking up to 10 days. And meanwhile, if you go to an urgent care they only have 50 tests a day and people start lining up before dawn. CVS might be able to do it, but you have to have the right symptoms, and they run out too, and you have to pay for that, and hope insurance reimburses you or something. 

Y'all, this is INSANE!!!! And even with it being that hard to get tested, we had over 11 thousand positive cases yesterday!

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As Disney World reopens in a pandemic, 10 reasons to visit right away:

When Disney World closed in March, there were fewer than 200 coronavirus cases in Florida. Now, there are more than 200,000, with thousands of new cases every day. Meeska mooska! You may be asking yourself, should I go to Disney immediately, because it is fun and I am bored? Here are some reasons to visit post-haste, rather than waiting for the virus outlook to improve.

https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2020/07/08/as-disney-world-reopens-in-a-pandemic-10-reasons-to-visit-right-away/

Edited by mathnerd
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7 minutes ago, EmseB said:

Isn't Disney mostly outdoors?

Except for all the restaurants, shows, and gift shops, plus all the 'experiences' like breakfast with Mickey.  And a bunch of rides (space mountain, Peter Pan, Mr. Frog, pirates, ghost mansion, star tours, probably a bunch I'm forgetting )

I'd feel better if they limited it to outdoor rides only, as well as only outdoor dining and only outdoor gift carts.  AND that only after after FL had met the CDC guidelines for falling cases, hospitalizations, and test positivity percentage. 

Edited by Matryoshka
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3 minutes ago, EmseB said:

Isn't Disney mostly outdoors?

Dining and shopping are huge, and they're both usually indoors. A lot of the rides are indoor or partly indoor (Small World, Space Mountain, Test Track, Tower of Terror, Haunted Mansion, the ball at Epcot has a ride). A lot (most?) of the shows are indoor (the Muppets, Bear Jamboree, Hall of Presidents). 

I can't think of as many outdoor rides as I can indoor rides. They do have a lot of street performers, but those become very crowded very quickly, so I don't know if those would be great either.

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