Florida COVID trends

[cintinative]

Many apologies, as I am reading this after writing it, it is sort of ramble. 😃

I am at my brother's in SE. Florida and have been watching the numbers since way before we drove down last week. It seems like a definite trend up.  I am not used to how this state does things. I tried to find some sort of public statement from the governor as to their take on what is going on, but didn't have a whole lot of luck. I found an article where he blamed it on farm workers (the article called them hispanic workers).  But to me, that doesn't explain the large surges.  

Has anyone found a reliable source for data regarding the percentage of people that are testing positive?  I thought I had read somewhere that it had increased in the last week (meaning that a higher percentage of people were testing positive than had before).  

Interestingly, my SIL's mom (SW FL) has had a cough and felt yucky for at least a few days and the only outings in public they have had were to go to Walmart for grocery pickup (where they load your trunk) or a drive-thru at Walgreeen's. They have no idea how she could have picked something up.  It would have to be from those surface contacts I guess? 

I sort of hate being right sometimes. I had no peace about coming to FL until we agreed that I would just stay on at my brother's when my dh and kids go up to NW Florida to stay with others in a house (that's literally another thread). My brother's family has been so careful.  I would appreciate prayers for my dh and kids' safety.  The ironic thing is that weeks ago things didn't look this bad case-wise, and I had no peace then.  Now, as I look at the numbers I feel like I was being warned then that things were not going to be good. 

 

 

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, cintinative said:

Many apologies, as I am reading this after writing it, it is sort of ramble. 😃

I am at my brother's in SE. Florida and have been watching the numbers since way before we drove down last week. It seems like a definite trend up.  I am not used to how this state does things. I tried to find some sort of public statement from the governor as to their take on what is going on, but didn't have a whole lot of luck. I found an article where he blamed it on farm workers (the article called them hispanic workers).  But to me, that doesn't explain the large surges.  

Has anyone found a reliable source for data regarding the percentage of people that are testing positive?  I thought I had read somewhere that it had increased in the last week (meaning that a higher percentage of people were testing positive than had before).  

Interestingly, my SIL's mom (SW FL) has had a cough and felt yucky for at least a few days and the only outings in public they have had were to go to Walmart for grocery pickup (where they load your trunk) or a drive-thru at Walgreeen's. They have no idea how she could have picked something up.  It would have to be from those surface contacts I guess? 

I sort of hate being right sometimes. I had no peace about coming to FL until we agreed that I would just stay on at my brother's when my dh and kids go up to NW Florida to stay with others in a house (that's literally another thread). My brother's family has been so careful.  I would appreciate prayers for my dh and kids' safety.  The ironic thing is that weeks ago things didn't look this bad case-wise, and I had no peace then.  Now, as I look at the numbers I feel like I was being warned then that things were not going to be good. 

 

 

The Sun Sentinel has good articles on Florida, especially South Florida. They do limit how many free articles you get, but it is less than a dollar for an 8 week trial subscription. They are doing better than the state dashboard. 

And yeah, the governor is NOT a good source of info - he has outright lied multiple times. Percent positive test results are doubling or more. That's not more tests, that is more people getting it. Today we are at 3,800 new cases! My count went from averaging 27 new cases a day to now 360 cases today - and NOT from more testing. We are seeing outbreaks across demographics. Bars opening was a terrible idea - restarurants are NOT following guidelines - finally today two got shut down and fined in my area for not having distancing at all - they were packed. In my county we have 28 firefighters positive as of yesterday, we have positive police (have YET to see a single one in a mask - even indoors), etc. 

And the farmworker thing is a bad situation. Aside from however many are actually counted, I'm sure there are more - many are not here legally, or have been blackmailed into slavery conditions and can't risk going to the hospital for fear of deportation. Others are here legally on a visa, but told by their employer they can't go to the hospital and leave work or they will be fired, and if they are fired they are deported. So I'm SURE there are tons of cases in that community not being counted. 

But it isn't just them. It's young club hoppers, restaurant patrons, firefighters, police, etc. My county has a mask order starting tomorrow, but otherwise never have mandated masks, even for food prep, etc. And nursing home workers were mandated to, but didn't have and still dont have enough PPE to actually do it, so people who have been there say the staff is not masking. 

So yeah, it's bad. And deaths lag by anywhere from 2 weeks to 2 months behind cases - so deaths down now means nothing. It takes time for the people in this spike to die, and then have an autopsy, and then get the death certificate issues, and then have it reported to the state. There is a disclaimer about it on the CDC websites and the DOH website, in tiny print, that you have to hunt to find. 

Our ER admission rate is about 20%, our admitted into the hospital for care is about 11%, and death rate is 1% (of cases). 

[MEmama]

Katie!! 

Those numbers are staggering! In ONE DAY the number of new (documented) cases in Florida is nearly double my states ENTIRE (documented) case total since March?! 😞 I cannot imagine. Please stay safe, Floridians (and visitors)!

[historically accurate]

3 minutes ago, MEmama said:

Katie!! 

Those numbers are staggering! In ONE DAY the number of new (documented) cases in Florida is nearly double my states ENTIRE (documented) case total since March?! 😞 I cannot imagine. Please stay safe, Floridians (and visitors)!

Yeah, my mom lives in FL, and we're in IL. A couple of weeks ago it was reversed - we were really worried about IL's numbers then, now our numbers are plummeting. She wasn't too worried about it down there a few weeks ago - she was still going out to get lotto tickets daily, occasional restaurants, etc. Now, she hasn't left the house in bout 2 weeks. It's really lonely for her as she lives alone. 

[mlktwins]

Just curious if SIL's mom has had restaurant food?

 

[ktgrok]

Oh, other resources are the local NPR stations...most have a website, if not all. Mine is WFME, not sure if it is the same where you are. 

You are also welcome to follow me on facebook temporarily, if you would like  (Imean, you can do it permanently, but for this situation at least, lol) as I post a lot of updates on the virus, numbers, etc. 

[Pawz4me]

21 minutes ago, MEmama said:

Katie!! 

Those numbers are staggering! In ONE DAY the number of new (documented) cases in Florida is nearly double my states ENTIRE (documented) case total since March?! 😞 I cannot imagine. Please stay safe, Floridians (and visitors)!

Well, you do have to take total population differences into consideration.

 

[cintinative]

30 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

The Sun Sentinel has good articles on Florida, especially South Florida. They do limit how many free articles you get, but it is less than a dollar for an 8 week trial subscription. They are doing better than the state dashboard. 

And yeah, the governor is NOT a good source of info - he has outright lied multiple times. Percent positive test results are doubling or more. That's not more tests, that is more people getting it. Today we are at 3,800 new cases! 

 

Thank you. I have been following this which is updated daily, but it is for the whole state and doesn't address % positives of people tested. https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/15/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/  It usually isn't updated for the prior day until about 3 or so.  So it still doesn't reflect the 3800 new cases you mentioned.

 

 

[cintinative]

6 minutes ago, mlktwins said:

Just curious if SIL's mom has had restaurant food?

 

 

No,. Apparently she is feeling a bit better now so it might not be COVID. It's still weird that she picked something up though, even if it wasn't COVID.

[ktgrok]

Just now, cintinative said:

 

Thank you. I have been following this which is updated daily, but it is for the whole state and doesn't address % positives of people tested. https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/15/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/  It usually isn't updated for the prior day until about 3 or so.  So it still doesn't reflect the 3800 new cases you mentioned.

 

 

So, there is a state dashboard,but it's crashed right now, or was last I checked. You can click on county cases to see the specifics of your county. Keep in mind when looking at their percent positive that they include negative antibody tests.The main test percentage they report is also cumulative, not the most recent cases, but overtime. So not as helpful. If you click aroun dyou can find a graph that shows percent positive of new cases, and that is week by week. So only updated once a week, I think. and they double count people that had a negative and positive test in those...so the positive rate is artificially low. but you can still see changes over time.  https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

There is also an unofficial dashboard, from the woman who used to run the official one, but got fired over the issue of how to count antibody tests, etc. I find it confusing...you have to read carefully and scroll through all the little boxes to get the info. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

And then the Sun Sentinel does an even better job of being up to date. They update more often than the state dashboard, so show more cases. 

[ktgrok]

Oh, and I'm Katie Loesch-Meyer if you decide you want to follow on facebook (no pressure, lol)

[ktgrok]

" In the latest statewide results, 17.7% of the people swabbed tested positive. That’s based on 21,561 tests recorded from the previous day.

Compare that to just four weeks ago on May 22, when 3.6% of the test results showed infections. That was based on the results of 21,588 tests that day — almost the same number as Friday." (Actual percentages, not the manipulated stuff the dashboard has.) So when DeSantis says the increase is from more testing he is LYING.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-florida-coronavirus-deaths-cases-friday-june-19-20200619-nbmdux2bb5bcrcn5pqw2gznisy-story.html

[Pawz4me]

4 minutes ago, Danae said:

Florida has 16 times the population of Maine and 90 times the number of new cases in today's count. So it's still a very different situation, even taking population into account.

Absolutely Florida's got a problem. I was just making a general statement/reminder that population does matter when discussing numbers of cases. I think it every time someone posts something like "my county had X number of new cases today" and I can't make it mean anything w/o knowing the population. And instead of just thinking it to myself I posted it this time. 😉 

[MEmama]

59 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

Well, you do have to take total population differences into consideration.

 

True!
But still, those numbers are huge. And we all know the reported numbers are far below reality. 
 

I expect my state will have a summer surge from vacationers, and another from snowbirds returning (from um, Florida) in the fall. What happens in one state affects us all, on so many levels. 

[MEmama]

48 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

Absolutely Florida's got a problem. I was just making a general statement/reminder that population does matter when discussing numbers of cases. I think it every time someone posts something like "my county had X number of new cases today" and I can't make it mean anything w/o knowing the population. And instead of just thinking it to myself I posted it this time. 😉 

I’m definitely guilty of forgetting how populous other areas are. 🙂 I think in this case the difference just struck me as just massive, KWIM?

[Wheres Toto]

47 minutes ago, MEmama said:

True!
But still, those numbers are huge. And we all know the reported numbers are far below reality. 
 

I expect my state will have a summer surge from vacationers, and another from snowbirds returning (from um, Florida) in the fall. What happens in one state affects us all, on so many levels. 

Don't snowbirds go south for the winter?

[mumto2]

Just an FYI  some of the Florida reporting is positive cases as opposed to new cases so it is a mess.  I know the Orlando Sentinal reports positives so double and triple counting people who need to be retested to return to work and are still positive.....I could go on!  

[ktgrok]

5 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

Just an FYI  some of the Florida reporting is positive cases as opposed to new cases so it is a mess.  I know the Orlando Sentinal reports positives so double and triple counting people who need to be retested to return to work and are still positive.....I could go on!  

yeah..but they are also counting people who were positive, and then tested negative, as well as negative antibodies. But yes, new cases it the better number. 

 

[MEmama]

28 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

Don't snowbirds go south for the winter?

Um, yeah. Idk what I’m thinking. Lol 😳😂

[ktgrok]

The Sun Sentinel and Community Dashboard show 3,493 new cases, the official State of Florida Dashboard shows 4.7K new cases - that's a huge discrepancy. And I still can't get the official dashboard to load all the info - says "not fully configured" when I try to go to the county level stuff. Anyone have a clue?

[cintinative]

21 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

The Sun Sentinel and Community Dashboard show 3,493 new cases, the official State of Florida Dashboard shows 4.7K new cases - that's a huge discrepancy. And I still can't get the official dashboard to load all the info - says "not fully configured" when I try to go to the county level stuff. Anyone have a clue?

I was just on there and it looked like the 4700 number was for yesterday. I actually came in here to ask you about it. I don’t understand what happened

I found one news outlet that had the 4700 but multiple others have the 3493 number

 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 21, 2020 by cintinative

[PeterPan]

On 6/19/2020 at 4:04 PM, mumto2 said:

Just an FYI  some of the Florida reporting is positive cases as opposed to new cases so it is a mess.  I know the Orlando Sentinal reports positives so double and triple counting people who need to be retested to return to work and are still positive.....I could go on!  

Do you think that's happening in the reporting in other places? That had never even occurred to me, mercy.

[PeterPan]

On 6/19/2020 at 1:55 PM, cintinative said:

 

No,. Apparently she is feeling a bit better now so it might not be COVID. It's still weird that she picked something up though, even if it wasn't COVID.

Well for a long time (not sure right now, but just in general) only a fraction of the people who had enough covid-like symptoms to get tested actually had it. It's why I'm skeptical when anyone says they had it unless they actually got tested. There's just a lot going on. 

That said, it's always scary when someone is sick. I'm glad she's getting better. It could have been the virus. And yeah, this is just a hazard right now. I went to Trader Joes to get baked beans for my ds after 3 months, and just that could get me exposed and get me the virus, over BAKED BEANS. Hopefully your trip was better and more worth it than a can of beans at least.

[mumto2]

20 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

Do you think that's happening in the reporting in other places? That had never even occurred to me, mercy.

Yes, I do unless an effort is being made to separate out the retests and as @Ktgrok pointed out the positive antibody tests.  One person could be counted many times.  Dh and Ds have been working hard to clean up his data.

Another thing is over by UCF students are being paid $10 to test.......what if they are testing in both counties?

On 6/19/2020 at 1:16 PM, Ktgrok said:

The Sun Sentinel has good articles on Florida, especially South Florida. They do limit how many free articles you get, but it is less than a dollar for an 8 week trial subscription. They are doing better than the state dashboard. 

And yeah, the governor is NOT a good source of info - he has outright lied multiple times. Percent positive test results are doubling or more. That's not more tests, that is more people getting it. Today we are at 3,800 new cases! My count went from averaging 27 new cases a day to now 360 cases today - and NOT from more testing. We are seeing outbreaks across demographics. Bars opening was a terrible idea - restarurants are NOT following guidelines - finally today two got shut down and fined in my area for not having distancing at all - they were packed. In my county we have 28 firefighters positive as of yesterday, we have positive police (have YET to see a single one in a mask - even indoors), etc. 

And the farmworker thing is a bad situation. Aside from however many are actually counted, I'm sure there are more - many are not here legally, or have been blackmailed into slavery conditions and can't risk going to the hospital for fear of deportation. Others are here legally on a visa, but told by their employer they can't go to the hospital and leave work or they will be fired, and if they are fired they are deported. So I'm SURE there are tons of cases in that community not being counted. 

But it isn't just them. It's young club hoppers, restaurant patrons, firefighters, police, etc. My county has a mask order starting tomorrow, but otherwise never have mandated masks, even for food prep, etc. And nursing home workers were mandated to, but didn't have and still dont have enough PPE to actually do it, so people who have been there say the staff is not masking. 

So yeah, it's bad. And deaths lag by anywhere from 2 weeks to 2 months behind cases - so deaths down now means nothing. It takes time for the people in this spike to die, and then have an autopsy, and then get the death certificate issues, and then have it reported to the state. There is a disclaimer about it on the CDC websites and the DOH website, in tiny print, that you have to hunt to find. 

Our ER admission rate is about 20%, our admitted into the hospital for care is about 11%, and death rate is 1% (of cases). 

Can you clarify 3800 or 360?  Not that either is good, but I am just confused.

[ikslo]

10 minutes ago, Mom2mthj said:

Can you clarify 3800 or 360?  Not that either is good, but I am just confused.

I think she meant “county” not “count” - so 3800 statewide, 360 for her county.

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, cintinative said:

I was just on there and it looked like the 4700 number was for yesterday. I actually came in here to ask you about it. I don’t understand what happened

I found one news outlet that had the 4700 but multiple others have the 3493 number

 

 

It's always for the day before. Todays tests aren't done yet, so today's positives will be reported tomorrow, etc etc. (don't get me started on the deaths..sigh...they publish those before they have the data -so it always looks like it is trending down, even though that days's numbers will go up later, usually significantly.)

38 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Interesting clarifying statement about the airport testing and positives, since the initial headlines sounded kind of misleading.

 

Yeah, that was a HUGE reporting failure on the newspapers/etc! I did read though that same day the additional clarification - so the major papers did right away put out the clarification, but the headlines were already out there. 

This was househould/community spread from a few airport workers, not a bunch of airport workers - which is really a very good thing as far as travelers, spreading it around the country, etc. 

30 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

Yes, I do unless an effort is being made to separate out the retests and as @Ktgrok pointed out the positive antibody tests.  One person could be counted many times.  Dh and Ds have been working hard to clean up his data.

Another thing is over by UCF students are being paid $10 to test.......what if they are testing in both counties?

Oh man, I didn't hear that! I'm figuring that is being done partly to catch cases...but I wonder if they were hoping to drive down the percent positive by testing a bunch of people they thought would be negative. But maybe not, maybe they just realized that age group was now a big source of cases. 

But yeah, if they are being paid....lot of incentive to get tested more than once and hack the system. 

20 minutes ago, Mom2mthj said:

Can you clarify 3800 or 360?  Not that either is good, but I am just confused.

Larger number was state, smaller number is county. 

[cintinative]

I don’t understand why the Florida GIS would report 4700 cases and the news media 3493. Did you find anything on this @Ktgrok?

[ktgrok]

6 minutes ago, cintinative said:

I don’t understand why the Florida GIS would report 4700 cases and the news media 3493. Did you find anything on this @Ktgrok?

NO! I'm totally clueless. Often the newspapers report a bit higher, as they tend to update more than once, so by afternoon may have a higher number than the GIS that only updates at 11am. But I've never seen it the other way. 

Also, total numbers are off as well - as far as total cases in the state, and deaths. Newspapers are higher. (I did finally get the dashboard to open fully...had to use an incognito window....will ask my tech husband how to fix that, lol)

1 hour ago, ikslo said:

I think she meant “county” not “count” - so 3800 statewide, 360 for her county.

That makes more sense.  Thank you.

[Lady Florida.]

Today's numbers show that we topped 100,000 total cases. A tiny bit of positive news is that the percentage of new cases went down but we likely wouldn't be at these high numbers if not for opening so soon.

https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-coronavirus-100k-cases/32934029

[cintinative]

13 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

Today's numbers show that we topped 100,000 total cases. A tiny bit of positive news is that the percentage of new cases went down but we likely wouldn't be at these high numbers if not for opening so soon.

https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-coronavirus-100k-cases/32934029

 

@Ktgrokand I are confused about yesterday's case report. On the FL Arc GIS site it is 4700 something (reported yesterday) and almost everywhere else in the media, worldometer, etc.  it is 3493. Today's numbers are below 3K on both, which seems better, but if yesterday's report was better or not depends on where you look.  It's very weird.  

Do you think any of this is from the protests/rallies? My brother's family lives here and they think it is that, but I thought I had read that MN wasn't having a peak following all of their protesting so maybe not? 

[stephanier.1765]

We are in FL and dh is a mail carrier. Last week it was announced that one of the carriers tested positive. At the meeting, another carrier asked if they would be getting hazard pay and when they said no, he got mad and went to get tested. Even though he had no symptoms, he tested positive. So who knows how many of the carriers are carriers of Covid. They are planning on testing everyone but, other than that, it's business as usual. 

 

[Kassia]

46 minutes ago, stephanier.1765 said:

We are in FL and dh is a mail carrier. Last week it was announced that one of the carriers tested positive. At the meeting, another carrier asked if they would be getting hazard pay and when they said no, he got mad and went to get tested. Even though he had no symptoms, he tested positive. So who knows how many of the carriers are carriers of Covid. They are planning on testing everyone but, other than that, it's business as usual. 

 

 

I'm glad he's ok!  That's scary.

[Lady Florida.]

1 hour ago, cintinative said:

 

 

Do you think any of this is from the protests/rallies? My brother's family lives here and they think it is that, but I thought I had read that MN wasn't having a peak following all of their protesting so maybe not? 

It's possible they contributed to it but I don't think it was a major factor. So many of those at the protests and rallies were wearing masks and doing their best to social distance - though I think best wasn't good enough in many cases. The reality is the state began opening in May and as the month went on (and into June) more and more things opened. Bars and restaurants opened for indoor seating. Salons opened. Universal Orlando opened and tried to entice locals to come. Judging by the fact that positives are skewing younger, I would think young people are simply going out more. I think we're mostly seeing the results of opening. 

ETA: All of the above is conjecture and simply my opinion. It's not based on any science or other facts.

Edited June 22, 2020 by Lady Florida.

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, cintinative said:

 

@Ktgrokand I are confused about yesterday's case report. On the FL Arc GIS site it is 4700 something (reported yesterday) and almost everywhere else in the media, worldometer, etc.  it is 3493. Today's numbers are below 3K on both, which seems better, but if yesterday's report was better or not depends on where you look.  It's very weird.  

Do you think any of this is from the protests/rallies? My brother's family lives here and they think it is that, but I thought I had read that MN wasn't having a peak following all of their protesting so maybe not? 

I saw that and have zero idea what the deal is with the numbers - other than the main site lumps in antibody and antigen tests, so maybe a big dump of antibody tests?

And no, I don't think we had a ton of big rallies. My friend went to the one in downtown Orlando and it was social distanced, people in masks, etc. 

I and most people are blaming this on opening up bars, and slacking on enforcing the regulations on retail/restaurants. Bars opened on June 5, so if you look say 10 days to 2 weeks after that, that is when the biggest spikes were happening. I mean, whoever thought that wouldn't happen is crazy pants. Young people, who think they are invincible, propped up on alcohol making them feel even MORE like risk taking, trying to talk to each other over loud music so they are shouting face to face? Not to mention hookups, swapping spit and who knows what else, etc? I mean, golly gee, who would have thought that could spread it? 

Oh, and restaurants were supposed to be socially distancing, but absolutely were not. So again, people packed together, drinking, shouting over loud music/restaurant background noise. 

So compared to those, I think the protests would be a minor factor. Orange county has some of the fastest growth and we just didn't have big packed in protests. We did have packed in bars. 

Also, in this area Oviedo is a hot spot - and it is not a known bastion of civil rights supporters, by any means. It IS a place where good old boys think they know better than the government and aren't going to "live in fear". 

1 hour ago, stephanier.1765 said:

We are in FL and dh is a mail carrier. Last week it was announced that one of the carriers tested positive. At the meeting, another carrier asked if they would be getting hazard pay and when they said no, he got mad and went to get tested. Even though he had no symptoms, he tested positive. So who knows how many of the carriers are carriers of Covid. They are planning on testing everyone but, other than that, it's business as usual. 

 

Well, that helps justify my continued disinfection of packages/mail. (spray with peroxide - no fumes, fast kill)

[CinV]

27 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

 

And no, I don't think we had a ton of big rallies. My friend went to the one in downtown Orlando and it was social distanced, people in masks, etc. 

 

This is a protest in Orlando - hundreds of people, not socially distanced at all. Same thing happened in Jax, Tallahassee, Tampa, Miami, etc. https://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/breaking-news/os-ne-george-floyd-protests-saturday-20200606-e2hmreb46zafzpk34mo62ndxw4-story.html

 

Edited June 22, 2020 by CinV

[mumto2]

55 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Also, in this area Oviedo is a hot spot - and it is not a known bastion of civil rights supporters, by any means. It IS a place where good old boys think they know better than the government and aren't going to "live in fear". 

The average age for the positive tests coming out of Oviedo the last time I looked is 22, I think. So students.......going to bars and perhaps protests.  The Seminole testing that really kicked this off was very close to UCF if I remember right.

On a positive note I saw many more masked people when we were out yesterday........maybe up to 60%.  I think people at least know the numbers are climbing and are trying to protect themselves and hopefully others.

[Corraleno]

4 hours ago, cintinative said:

 

Do you think any of this is from the protests/rallies? My brother's family lives here and they think it is that, but I thought I had read that MN wasn't having a peak following all of their protesting so maybe not? 

The states having the biggest spikes are not the ones where there were major protests; they are the ones that are opening. States that had large protests but are less open are not seeing spikes. Washington has seen a small increase in the last few days, but it's too soon to tell if it's part of an upward trend or just a blip. Below you can see the graphs for new cases in FL, TX, and OK, compared to MA, NY, and IL.

[EmseB]

20 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The states having the biggest spikes are not the ones where there were major protests; they are the ones that are opening. States that had large protests but are less open are not seeing spikes. Washington has seen a small increase in the last few days, but it's too soon to tell if it's part of an upward trend or just a blip. Below you can see the graphs for new cases in FL, TX, and OK, compared to MA, NY, and IL.

What about GA? Didn't they open around the same time as FL? How are they doing?

ETA: Are you putting these charts together using photoshop or some other program? I've been wanting to do something like this with some other unrelated stuff, sorry for the tangent but this looks nice and clean all together.

Edited June 22, 2020 by EmseB

[PeterPan]

Aw man, Ohio is opening up too and we didn't make the list!!

If you could kindly overlay those stats with *death* stats, that would be handy. I don't think anyone is shocked by *cases* going up. 

Edited June 23, 2020 by PeterPan

[Corraleno]

4 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

Aw man, Ohio is opening up too and we didn't make the list!!

If you could kindly overlay those stats with *death* stats, that would be handy. I don't think anyone is shocked by *cases* going up. 

Deaths lag behind cases by 4-8 weeks, so we wouldn't expect to see a spike in deaths yet. Also, a much larger percentage of the new cases are among younger people, since the over-70 set are not generally the ones packing bars and restaurants right now, so any increase in death rate would likely be smaller than the increase in case rate.

Ohio's death rate isn't currently going up, but it isn't great either — per capita Ohio is currently 19th in the country, with a higher death rate than Florida, Texas, Washington, California, Oklahoma, or Arizona. I think it's interesting that most Ohioans on the board seem to think their state is doing so well they really don't need to mask or worry about spread, whereas if I were living in a state with a death rate that is 5 times higher than my state, I would be even more locked down than I currently am.

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

What about GA? Didn't they open around the same time as FL? How are they doing?

ETA: Are you putting these charts together using photoshop or some other program? I've been wanting to do something like this with some other unrelated stuff, sorry for the tangent but this looks nice and clean all together.

I just did screen shots of the graphs on Worldometer and dragged them into a Pages document (on a Mac). Worldometer only has that level of detail for around a dozen states, generally the ones that are having big changes up or down.

[Kassia]

4 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

 

Ohio's death rate isn't currently going up, but it isn't great either — per capita Ohio is currently 19th in the country, with a higher death rate than Florida, Texas, Washington, California, Oklahoma, or Arizona. I think it's interesting that most Ohioans on the board seem to think their state is doing so well they really don't need to mask or worry about spread, whereas if I were living in a state with a death rate that is 5 times higher than my state, I would be even more locked down than I currently am.

 

Is that due to all of the nursing home outbreaks?  Unfortunately, we've (in Ohio)  had a lot of deaths from nursing homes (my FIL is in one) and jails.  

[Pen]

4 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Deaths lag behind cases by 4-8 weeks, so we wouldn't expect to see a spike in deaths yet. Also, a much larger percentage of the new cases are among younger people, since the over-70 set are not generally the ones packing bars and restaurants right now, so any increase in death rate would likely be smaller than the increase in case rate.

Ohio's death rate isn't currently going up, but it isn't great either — per capita Ohio is currently 19th in the country, with a higher death rate than Florida, Texas, Washington, California, Oklahoma, or Arizona. I think it's interesting that most Ohioans on the board seem to think their state is doing so well they really don't need to mask or worry about spread, whereas if I were living in a state with a death rate that is 5 times higher than my state, I would be even more locked down than I currently am.

 

Yeah. It’s weird.  

 

 

[PeterPan]

15 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Deaths lag behind cases by 4-8 weeks, so we wouldn't expect to see a spike in deaths yet. Also, a much larger percentage of the new cases are among younger people, since the over-70 set are not generally the ones packing bars and restaurants right now, so any increase in death rate would likely be smaller than the increase in case rate.

Ohio's death rate isn't currently going up, but it isn't great either — per capita Ohio is currently 19th in the country, with a higher death rate than Florida, Texas, Washington, California, Oklahoma, or Arizona. I think it's interesting that most Ohioans on the board seem to think their state is doing so well they really don't need to mask or worry about spread, whereas if I were living in a state with a death rate that is 5 times higher than my state, I would be even more locked down than I currently am.

75% of the deaths have been in long term care. That rate, last I saw, is MUCH higher than the national average which I think was 40%. 

Others have pointed out here on the boards that they see community masking go UP as perceived threat goes up. People see stats, know people getting sick, something, and they voluntarily make the choice. This does not have to be a "you're too dumb to mask until the brilliant gov't tells you to". Most of the cases in our state have been in long term care. People are assessing their risk and making choices. They're distancing when they aren't masking, and the reverse is NOT TRUE. I feel much less safe in the big big city where people mask, cuz those people are like termites in their stores.

Edited June 23, 2020 by PeterPan

[edelweiss]

27 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Deaths lag behind cases by 4-8 weeks, so we wouldn't expect to see a spike in deaths yet. Also, a much larger percentage of the new cases are among younger people, since the over-70 set are not generally the ones packing bars and restaurants right now, so any increase in death rate would likely be smaller than the increase in case rate.

Ohio's death rate isn't currently going up, but it isn't great either — per capita Ohio is currently 19th in the country, with a higher death rate than Florida, Texas, Washington, California, Oklahoma, or Arizona. I think it's interesting that most Ohioans on the board seem to think their state is doing so well they really don't need to mask or worry about spread, whereas if I were living in a state with a death rate that is 5 times higher than my state, I would be even more locked down than I currently am.

FWIW, I live in Ohio, and I definitely don't think our state is doing well.  Sadly, I think our numbers are going to get much worse soon.  I hope I am wrong.  My family is being very, very cautious.  No where near back to normal here!

[Corraleno]

43 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

75% of the deaths have been in long term care. That rate, last I saw, is MUCH higher than the national average which I think was 40%. 

Others have pointed out here on the boards that they see community masking go UP as perceived threat goes up. People see stats, know people getting sick, something, and they voluntarily make the choice. This does not have to be a "you're too dumb to mask until the brilliant gov't tells you to". Most of the cases in our state have been in long term care. People are assessing their risk and making choices. They're distancing when they aren't masking, and the reverse is NOT TRUE. I feel much less safe in the big big city where people mask, cuz those people are like termites in their stores.

The stats I've seen are 70% in Ohio, and 60% in my state, so even if you subtract the care-home deaths, the non-care-home death rate is still more than 3 times higher, and the per capita case rate is 2.5 times higher. But voluntary compliance with masking and distancing is very high where I am, and it's about to become mandatory in seven counties (including mine), which I'm quite happy about. Our case & death rates are among the lowest in the country, and I'm hoping they stay that way. I'm seriously worried about DS going back to college this fall, though, and I hope things don't get so bad out there that he can't come home for Christmas.

[cintinative]

12 hours ago, edelweiss said:

FWIW, I live in Ohio, and I definitely don't think our state is doing well.  Sadly, I think our numbers are going to get much worse soon.  I hope I am wrong.  My family is being very, very cautious.  No where near back to normal here!

 

This is my position also. Unfortunately I have seen a lot of people in my area blow it off, including a local government official who literally rejoiced when our health director announced she was resigning. It's truly sad.  My husband, however, thinks it is overblown.  

Our case numbers aren't super high in Ohio (compared to FL, especially), but we also have really low testing volumes. I haven't been able to listen to the governor's talks since I came down to FL to visit my family, but at one point we were only at 9,500 tests per day being run (as a max). With that low of a testing volume, it is no wonder our case numbers are lower.

[Acorn]

26 minutes ago, cintinative said:

 

Our case numbers aren't super high in Ohio (compared to FL, especially), but we also have really low testing volumes. I haven't been able to listen to the governor's talks since I came down to FL to visit my family, but at one point we were only at 9,500 tests per day being run (as a max). With that low of a testing volume, it is no wonder our case numbers are lower.

Testing in SW Ohio should increase soon, since we are now the area of OH with rapidly increasing rates. There are new testing centers opening and the media is really encouraging people to use them. 
My family is social distancing except for dh going to work. I need to make decisions about my return to work in a child care environment. Some of the parents are expressing thoughts that do not take the virus seriously, rejecting increased cleaning procedures and use of masks,  and disagree with social distancing. I don’t know what to do.