wuhan - coronavirus

[Rosie_0801]

20 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

 

All other states have ended their outbreaks. They all had very very strict short lockdowns. Sydney went for the gentle approach

Border lockdowns have worked so far. But it is very very hard on border towns 

I'm just outside the border zone, but still part of a border electorate. Our MP has worked *very hard* to force the city based MPs to find workable solutions for the border towns.

[Happy2BaMom]

2 hours ago, whitestavern said:

Maybe some of this information will make you feel better?

For now, the uptick in Covid-19 cases does not appear to translate into more severe disease, at least on a national level. The seven-day average of Covid-19 hospitalizations across the U.S. has fallen by about 1 percent from last week, she said. (from https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-covid-cases-10-percent-hypertransmissible-delta-variant-spreads-n1272895)

 

								Deaths among those with 28 day follow up	Case Fatality among those with 28 day follow up
Alpha	218,332	5,689	224,021	77.9%	4,259	1.9% (1.8 to 2.0%)	217,228	4,252	2.0% (1.9 to 2.0%)
Beta	871	55	926	0.3%	13	1.4% (0.7 to 2.4%)	858	13	1.5% (0.8 to 2.6%)
Delta	31,132	29,523	60,655	21.1%	73	0.1% (0.1 to 0.2%)	5,762	17	0.3% (0.2 to 0.5%)
Eta	441	0	441	0.2%	12	2.7% (1.4 to 4.7%)	428	12	2.8% (1.5 to 4.8%)
Gamma	170	42	212	0.1%	0	0.0% (0.0 to 1.7%)	155	0	0.0% (0.0 to 2.4%)
Kappa	422	0	422	0.1%	1	0.2% (0.0 to 1.3%)	404	1	0.2% (0.0 to 1.4%)
Theta	7	0	7	0.0%	0	0.0% (0.0 to 41.0%)	5	0	0.0% (0.0 to 52.2%)(fro

 

(from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997414/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf)

Children's extremely low risk confirmed by study (from https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717)

 

 

The Delta variant is not yet prevalent on a national scale (in meaningful numbers). As for Missouri & Arkansas, new COVID-19 admissions rose 30% over the past two weeks, with HCWs stating that patients are younger and getting sicker much faster. (Covid surging in Missouri as Delta variant overwhelms hospitals).

Now, some states do have strong vaccination rates, so hopefully delta results will be better in those states. But in states where vax rates are low......

[kbutton]

3 hours ago, KSera said:

That's how I'm feeling. It makes it so that I can no longer shrug and say "to each their own" about people who are purposefully spreading anti-vax information to discourage people from getting vaccinated. Those efforts have turned out to be effective in preventing us from getting enough people vaccinated to prevent another surge, and they are literally killing people by the thousands every month by having convinced them not to get vaccinated. I think it's unconscionable and I honestly don't know how those people sleep at night.

I consider, at least from HCW and others who should know better, "I want to wait until the vaccine has been around longer" to be part of the disinformation. Data comes in spades when a pandemic provides a worldwide laboratory. 

A HCW FB friend is saying this a lot after saying lots of snarky stuff about the vaccine. She says she's not anti-vax, but what difference does saying that make if you're going to cast doubt and say snarky stuff? 

[Melissa Louise]

Nobody with 2 x vax is (this far) in hospital in our latest outbreak. 

Almost 80% are unvaxed. The rest have had one shot. 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-10/covid-live-updates-coronavirus-press-conference-sydney-lockdown/100282612
 

eek!

[Ausmumof3]

34 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Nobody with 2 x vax is (this far) in hospital in our latest outbreak. 

Almost 80% are unvaxed. The rest have had one shot. 

Mind you given only 8% fully vaxed it would be hard to draw much from that. The Singapore thing is promising though. 

[Melissa Louise]

1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Mind you given only 8% fully vaxed it would be hard to draw much from that. The Singapore thing is promising though. 

True. Makes me feel better though! 

[Spryte]

Our local area just lost a child under 10 to Covid this week.  I don’t have info re: pre-existing conditions, and don’t want to link (sorry) because the news stories are so specific about where we live.  It’s the second child under 10 we’ve lost in the general area since March.  
 

 

[KSera]

4 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Lol, exposure an hour after first vax!  Test, isolate four days, test again, wait for further instructions. Grocery store exposure. They were here for a short time picking up their child (I'm their childcare) after the store - think I'll just monitor for symptoms. 

Do you mean you had exposure the same day they had just been exposed at work? Or a later day. If it was same day, I wouldn’t think there’s much chance at all that they would have been able to infect you at that point. Seems it would have had to be fomite transmission to happen same day. 

 

[Melissa Louise]

Just now, KSera said:

Do you mean you had exposure the same day they had just been exposed at work? Or a later day. If it was same day, I wouldn’t think there’s much chance at all that they would have been able to infect you at that point. Seems it would have had to be fomite transmission to happen same day. 

 

Same day.

I'm not too worried about it. 

[Ausmumof3]

50 cases

from ABC

The number of coronavirus patients in hospital grew to 47, including a 16-year-old who is in intensive care.

Of the new cases recorded in the 24 hours to 8:00pm yesterday, 37 were in the community for all or part of their infectious period.

The Delta COVID-19 variant has infected 489 people since NSW's outbreak began last month, and Ms Berejiklian said the lockdown, affecting Greater Sydney and its surrounds, would likely need to be extended.

 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Ausmumof3]

30 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

True. Makes me feel better though! 

Doing some rough calcs if vaccines were doing absolutely nothing we would expect 49 fully vaccinated people to get it and 3-4 to be hospitalised so actually I think it is a good sign that there’s been few cases in fully vaxed and zero hospitalisation.  Just really wish my parents had had their second vax.  Really hope ATAGI consider reducing to an eight week window for Astra. 

[Ausmumof3]

World wide case curve has definitely started trending back up. US cases have started increasing slightly the last couple of days also. At some point last week when I wasn’t paying attention recorded deaths worldwide passed 4 million. 

[Ausmumof3]

Russia also seem to be in the middle of a third wave - deaths are higher than previous waves although cases aren’t but that’s likely a feature of testing/reporting levels.

[mommyoffive]

CDC says schools in session - by Katelyn Jetelina - Your Local Epidemiologist (substack.com)

[Ausmumof3]

8 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

CDC says schools in session - by Katelyn Jetelina - Your Local Epidemiologist (substack.com)

The dashboard idea sounds like a good one where the school actually know where to get the data and what to do with it based on health guidance.

[Melissa Louise]

Hard border with VIC likely 🙁

[Melissa in Australia]

1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

Hard border with VIC likely 🙁

my parents live right on the highway  not so far from the NSW border in Vic . the cars have been bumper to bumper for the last 24 hours coming into Vic

 Of course it is the last weekend of school holidays, but I think everyone knows that there will be  a hard border imminently 

[Laura Corin]

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/new-top-5-covid-symptoms?utm_source=App

Updated symptoms based on vaccination status - Delta. Based on, I believe, roughly 1 million people reporting status regularly. 

[kbutton]

23 hours ago, kbutton said:

I am so sorry. It's already been so difficult for you, and I hate it for you that it's expected to get worse.

The county next to us (we live right by the line) has the highest numbers in our state by a lot, but I haven't heard a peep about it. DH works in a different hospital system now (yet another county, not where we live or in the one with higher numbers where he used to work), so we don't get the information we used to from the hospital system. The numbers aren't close to a surge (takes a week to get numbers like during the surge), but I think it can't be good unless there was a data glitch that messed up reporting. 

This NPR article shows hot spots and classifies them a bit. I was surprised to find out that the county I referenced has a vaccination rate just north of 40%. From the local grousing, I would’ve guessed it was lower. There is a pretty high number of old people in that county, so it makes me think they are vaxed at high rates while the younger population is less so. 

[KSera]

25 minutes ago, kbutton said:

This NPR article shows hot spots and classifies them a bit. I was surprised to find out that the county I referenced has a vaccination rate just north of 40%. From the local grousing, I would’ve guessed it was lower. There is a pretty high number of old people in that county, so it makes me think they are vaxed at high rates while the younger population is less so. 

Link? 😊

[kbutton]

47 minutes ago, KSera said:

Link? 😊

Oops! Lol! https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/09/1014512213/covid-is-surging-in-new-hotspots-driven-by-low-vaccination-rates?fbclid=IwAR3GO8kNt46vazyor7PTI3adqFTBgbNAyJBX_yLyUf_Bj5pLB7nw2QDQxVY

[KSera]

1 hour ago, kbutton said:

Oops! Lol! https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/09/1014512213/covid-is-surging-in-new-hotspots-driven-by-low-vaccination-rates?fbclid=IwAR3GO8kNt46vazyor7PTI3adqFTBgbNAyJBX_yLyUf_Bj5pLB7nw2QDQxVY

This is becoming increasingly distressing to me. As the article says, COVID-19 is now a preventable disease. No one needs to be dying of it anymore. To still be losing 10,000 people a month in this country, and to still be needing to live pandemic-style lives is completely unnecessary. At this point, even the “wait and see” people no longer have an excuse. There’s no way to look at 10,000 deaths in a month, of which over 99% are unvaccinated and less than 1% vaccinated and legitimately claim that you think the vaccine is likely to carry more risk than the disease (obviously barring the very tiny proportion of people who have legitimate medical reasons they can’t be vaccinated— everyone else doing so protects these people as well).

With the introduction of such an effective vaccine, I was sure my kids would all be able to return to regular activities in the fall. Now it’s looking increasingly likely that they will not, particularly not those too young to be vaccinated. It’s not too late to turn it around before fall, though. If everyone who could be vaccinated went out and did it now, by September our numbers would be expected to be extremely low and life could be pretty normal. And tens of thousands more people would be alive that are otherwise going to die in these upcoming months.  If only 😢. 

[Penelope]

Press release on phase 3 trial of an antiviral that WORKS. Great news. Vaccines are great but medications  are still going to be needed.

https://www.heteroworld.com/images/Press_Release_Molnupiravir_Interim_Clinical_Results_Final_090721.pdf

Edited July 10, 2021 by Penelope

[Kanin]

3 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/new-top-5-covid-symptoms?utm_source=App

Updated symptoms based on vaccination status - Delta. Based on, I believe, roughly 1 million people reporting status regularly. 

I can’t remember, do fully vaccinated people need to test with symptoms, or quarantine if positive?  Because now the most common symptoms are pretty much common cold or allergy symptoms...

[KSera]

15 minutes ago, Penelope said:

Press release on phase 3 trial of an antiviral that WORKS. Great news. Vaccines are great but medications  are still going to be needed.

https://www.heteroworld.com/images/Press_Release_Molnupiravir_Interim_Clinical_Results_Final_090721.pdf

That’s good to see. I hope we get some that work even better though. Also I hope we keep seeing more studies on this one, because they didn’t have any deaths in either the treatment or control groups, so no way to know the effect in serious cases. Does seem like it possibly shortens illness better than flu antivirals shorten flu.

[Laura Corin]

34 minutes ago, Kanin said:

I can’t remember, do fully vaccinated people need to test with symptoms, or quarantine if positive?  Because now the most common symptoms are pretty much common cold or allergy symptoms...

In the UK if you are symptomatic, you get tested, even if vaccinated. You'd have to lie to get tested for most of those symptoms though because they no longer match the government's list.

If you are positive and symptomatic you could transmit. 

Edited July 10, 2021 by Laura Corin

[Melissa in Australia]

77 new cases in NSW and one death

Apparently a few traidsmen have spread it amongst each other and then sorted it to their families. They are asking tradesmen who work across multiple sites to get tested. 

 Also there have been cases linked to shared areas in apartment blocks

They are also asking people to get second dose after 6 weeks instead of 3 months 

[Melissa Louise]

15 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

77 new cases in NSW and one death

Apparently a few traidsmen have spread it amongst each other and then sorted it to their families. They are asking tradesmen who work across multiple sites to get tested. 

 Also there have been cases linked to shared areas in apartment blocks

They are also asking people to get second dose after 6 weeks instead of 3 months 

Ugh, ugh, ugh. 

[JennyD]

7 hours ago, Penelope said:

Press release on phase 3 trial of an antiviral that WORKS. Great news. Vaccines are great but medications  are still going to be needed.

https://www.heteroworld.com/images/Press_Release_Molnupiravir_Interim_Clinical_Results_Final_090721.pdf

This podcast features a terrific interview with former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb, who discusses what's hopefully coming with these new antivirals.  

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Melissa in Australia said:

77 new cases in NSW and one death

Apparently a few traidsmen have spread it amongst each other and then sorted it to their families. They are asking tradesmen who work across multiple sites to get tested. 

 Also there have been cases linked to shared areas in apartment blocks

They are also asking people to get second dose after 6 weeks instead of 3 months 

Glad they are bringing that second dose forward at least!

[KSera]

I was wondering on the Fourth of July what Covid rates were going to do in the two weeks following, but haven’t heard anyone talk about it. I just saw this chart though, and I don’t know if it’s coincidence, but it looks to me like cases accelerated right after. These are the three lowest vaccinated states and the three highest vaccinated states. (I would guess that temporary dramatic dip was due to the holiday and less testing and reporting)  

 

[Ausmumof3]

VIC/ NSW border 
 

Victoria's Premier Daniel Andrews says Victorians in NSW need to come home as soon as possible before Victoria possibly closes its border with the state

"If you're coming home you better be quick about it, many warnings were given about this sort of outcome," he said.

"Border conditions can change. 

"We have been abundantly clear ... don't delay, come back today."

Mr Andrews said people must follow the conditions of their permit. 

"If you do the wrong thing you will be found, you will be fined and you have every chance of becoming very, very famous. So please do as you are asked. It is the right thing to do. we do not want the virus here in our state."

Mr Andrews said the government was considering making NSW a red zone, effectively closing the border between states. 

"I won't hesitate to make that call," he said. 

Mr Andrews said he was waiting for the AHPPC to make a call on whether all of NSW should be declared a COVID hotspot, which should happen within the next few hours. 

Mr Andrews said he has offered the NSW Premier support and learnings from Victoria's lockdowns last year.

"If there's a problem in Sydney there's a problem everywhere. We've all got an interest and Victorians perhaps have the most interest because we've given the most."

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/47-test-positive-for-delta-variant-at-sonoma-countys-largest-homeless-cent/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
 

Not sure about this source sorry but looks like 10 of 47 homeless people who have tested positive were vaccinated.  Adding this to the list of “just because you’re vaccinated doesn’t mean you can transmit it” stories. 

[KSera]

53 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/47-test-positive-for-delta-variant-at-sonoma-countys-largest-homeless-cent/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
 

Not sure about this source sorry but looks like 10 of 47 homeless people who have tested positive were vaccinated.  Adding this to the list of “just because you’re vaccinated doesn’t mean you can transmit it” stories. 

That freaked me out that it was that high until I read that 85% of the people in the shelter have been vaccinated. If 100% of them had been vaccinated, 100% of the people who are positive would’ve been vaccinated. As it is, that means about 7% of the vaccinated residents caught it while virtually all (?? I’m getting a number more than the number of unvaccinated that would be there) of the unvaccinated residents caught it. Fortunately, only one is hospitalized and no one else has serious symptoms.

[Ausmumof3]

36 minutes ago, KSera said:

That freaked me out that it was that high until I read that 85% of the people in the shelter have been vaccinated. If 100% of them had been vaccinated, 100% of the people who are positive would’ve been vaccinated. As it is, that means about 7% of the vaccinated residents caught it while virtually all (?? I’m getting a number more than the number of unvaccinated that would be there) of the unvaccinated residents caught it. Fortunately, only one is hospitalized and no one else has serious symptoms.

Yeah it’s definitely a reduction just not a guarantee.  But the numbers don’t seem to make sense to be honest 

[Ausmumof3]

Netherlands 

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yeah it’s definitely a reduction just not a guarantee.  But the numbers don’t seem to make sense to be honest 

Quoting myself to say it said at least 10 were vaccinated not only 10.  It doesn’t really make sense because as I work it out you have 37 unvaccinated with Covid and only 15 or so unvaccinated in the shelter.  But I wonder if the 85pc vaccination rate is as a whole reflecting the population moving through not the rate with current residents? 

[KSera]

2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Quoting myself to say it said at least 10 were vaccinated not only 10.  It doesn’t really make sense because as I work it out you have 37 unvaccinated with Covid and only 15 or so unvaccinated in the shelter.  But I wonder if the 85pc vaccination rate is as a whole reflecting the population moving through not the rate with current residents? 

That's what I was trying to figure out. If they have a lot of turnover, I could see how that works out. I come up with about 23 unvaccinated residents if it's 15% of 153 residents. And they currently have 37 unvaccinated residents who are positive. Seems that only makes sense if those are people who caught it there but new people have arrived while others have left. Any way you look at it, it appears virtually all of the unvaccinated conracted it (further evidence the attack rate of Delta is crazy high) and 7-8% of the vaccinated caught it. (Media reports really should be including these calculations to put the numbers in perspective for people--we're not a country known for our math education 😉)

[Melissa in Australia]

21 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Netherlands 

we need a shocked smiley face 😲

[Ausmumof3]

16 minutes ago, KSera said:

That's what I was trying to figure out. If they have a lot of turnover, I could see how that works out. I come up with about 23 unvaccinated residents if it's 15% of 153 residents. And they currently have 37 unvaccinated residents who are positive. Seems that only makes sense if those are people who caught it there but new people have arrived while others have left. Any way you look at it, it appears virtually all of the unvaccinated conracted it (further evidence the attack rate of Delta is crazy high) and 7-8% of the vaccinated caught it. (Media reports really should be including these calculations to put the numbers in perspective for people--we're not a country known for our math education 😉)

I suspect on some cases the media report writers aren’t really capable of running these calculations anyway 😏

[Acadie]

9 hours ago, KSera said:

I was wondering on the Fourth of July what Covid rates were going to do in the two weeks following, but haven’t heard anyone talk about it. I just saw this chart though, and I don’t know if it’s coincidence, but it looks to me like cases accelerated right after. These are the three lowest vaccinated states and the three highest vaccinated states. (I would guess that temporary dramatic dip was due to the holiday and less testing and reporting)  

 

Yikes for Louisiana especially. 

Mind sharing where you found this? I've wondered about a post-4th spike as well. 

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/08/nhs-hospitals-forced-to-cancel-operations-again-by-unfolding-third-wave?__twitter_impression=true
 

Some Uk non-urgent surgery being delayed due to Covid and staff quarantine requirements after contact.  
 

“For example, about 1,000 staff at University Hospitals Birmingham are isolating this week either because they have been identified as a contact, or have had to take time off to look after a child whose “bubble” has been sent home from school or because they are ill themselves, a source said.

Hospital chiefs are frustrated that staff still have to quarantine for 10 days if they are identified as a contact of someone with Covid, even though most of them have had both Covid vaccinations. They fear that even more health workers will have to stay away from work over the coming weeks as Covid infections soar to what Sajid Javid has admitted could soon be more than 100,000 cases a day.”

 

[Drama Llama]

Can I ask opinions on something related to the vaccinated people transmitting?

My SIL has a 7 day old baby and is understandably very worried about the virus.  When I agreed to provide childcare for her kids we agreed that the unvaccinated kids would only do outdoor activities, and would wear masks  unless they were in the pool.

But at that point, it seemed like vaccinated people weren’t transmitting, so I signed my oldest up for a four week long in person musical theater camp that starts on the 19th.  The camp seems pretty cautious with masking and distancing, but it’s got singing and dancing (and thus heavy breathing).  

How risky is it if he keeps seeing his unvaccinated cousins (sisters to newborn), and his 90 year old vaccinated Great grandfather?  He can mask around them. 

And of course, the other question is if I am worried about a vaccinated kid at camp with 30 kids, what am I thinking sending my unvaccinated 11 year old to a public school of a thousand kids in he fall?

[AmandaVT]

1 hour ago, BaseballandHockey said:

Can I ask opinions on something related to the vaccinated people transmitting?

My SIL has a 7 day old baby and is understandably very worried about the virus.  When I agreed to provide childcare for her kids we agreed that the unvaccinated kids would only do outdoor activities, and would wear masks  unless they were in the pool.

But at that point, it seemed like vaccinated people weren’t transmitting, so I signed my oldest up for a four week long in person musical theater camp that starts on the 19th.  The camp seems pretty cautious with masking and distancing, but it’s got singing and dancing (and thus heavy breathing).  

How risky is it if he keeps seeing his unvaccinated cousins (sisters to newborn), and his 90 year old vaccinated Great grandfather?  He can mask around them. 

And of course, the other question is if I am worried about a vaccinated kid at camp with 30 kids, what am I thinking sending my unvaccinated 11 year old to a public school of a thousand kids in he fall?

How is your state doing with vaccinations? I think that would be part of my decision making process. 

[Drama Llama]

1 minute ago, AmandaVT said:

How is your state doing with vaccinations? I think that would be part of my decision making process. 

State is doing well, and our rates are low.

[Drama Llama]

1 minute ago, BaseballandHockey said:

State is doing well, and our rates are low.

Sorry that made no sense.  Our vaccination rates are high, our covid rates are low.  

Camp is teens only and super liberal, so my guess is all or almost all will be vaccinated.  They have little kid camp in the same building but my understanding is that they don’t mix.

[AmandaVT]

2 minutes ago, BaseballandHockey said:

Sorry that made no sense.  Our vaccination rates are high, our covid rates are low.  

Camp is teens only and super liberal, so my guess is all or almost all will be vaccinated.  They have little kid camp in the same building but my understanding is that they don’t mix.

I am in a similar high vaccination/low covid rate state and I would feel comfortable, especially since there will be masking. I was really surprised at how well masks worked in schools this past year. Also, I wish I could find big kid camps for DS! Everything here seems to stop in 6th grade, ugh.

[wathe]

2 hours ago, BaseballandHockey said:

Can I ask opinions on something related to the vaccinated people transmitting?

My SIL has a 7 day old baby and is understandably very worried about the virus.  When I agreed to provide childcare for her kids we agreed that the unvaccinated kids would only do outdoor activities, and would wear masks  unless they were in the pool.

But at that point, it seemed like vaccinated people weren’t transmitting, so I signed my oldest up for a four week long in person musical theater camp that starts on the 19th.  The camp seems pretty cautious with masking and distancing, but it’s got singing and dancing (and thus heavy breathing).  

How risky is it if he keeps seeing his unvaccinated cousins (sisters to newborn), and his 90 year old vaccinated Great grandfather?  He can mask around them. 

And of course, the other question is if I am worried about a vaccinated kid at camp with 30 kids, what am I thinking sending my unvaccinated 11 year old to a public school of a thousand kids in he fall?

Re camp:  as long as masking means actually masking properly*, then you are probably OK.  Masks work very well.  Masked plus vaxxed is as good as it gets.

It's going to be hard to transition out of pandemic mode. To be constantly risk-analyzing every decision is really a burden, particularly when that analysis has to be based imperfect information in constantly evolving circumstances.  (I'm agonizing over kid plans for summer and fall here too.)

*Well-fitting mask worn over both mouth and nose at all times while indoors.  I know you know this, but your camp might not...  

[KSera]

4 hours ago, Acadie said:

Yikes for Louisiana especially. 

Mind sharing where you found this? I've wondered about a post-4th spike as well. 

I got this one from Ashish Jha’s (MD, MPH) Twitter feed. He shares a lot of good charts.

 

Edited July 11, 2021 by KSera