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I remember how some of us were jealous that the UK had inexpensive Lateral Flow Device (LFD) immunoassays that give fairly accurate rapid results (30 min) with no complicated equipment. Apparently, though, young people posted to social media that they could get false positive results from them by using soft drinks. This is from a preprint:

https://bit.ly/2V8ckV4

"Ten drinks (10/14; 71%) produced a positive or weakly positive result.

Interpretation Several soft drinks can be misused to give false positive SARS-CoV-2 LFD results. Daily LFD testing should be performed first thing in the morning, prior to the consumption of any food or drinks, and supervised where feasible."

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12 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Ugh. After almost two weeks of stay at home orders, numbers highest today, with over 50 % of those infectious in the community. 

 

That has been the pattern with every surge here.  Something causes spread in the community, we put restrictions in place, and the numbers continue to rise for a few weeks as people spread it within their homes and bubbles.  

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18 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

I remember how some of us were jealous that the UK had inexpensive Lateral Flow Device (LFD) immunoassays that give fairly accurate rapid results (30 min) with no complicated equipment. Apparently, though, young people posted to social media that they could get false positive results from them by using soft drinks. This is from a preprint:

https://bit.ly/2V8ckV4

"Ten drinks (10/14; 71%) produced a positive or weakly positive result.

Interpretation Several soft drinks can be misused to give false positive SARS-CoV-2 LFD results. Daily LFD testing should be performed first thing in the morning, prior to the consumption of any food or drinks, and supervised where feasible."

I'm less worried about people being able to game the system.  People are people. Lateral flow tests give the rest of us some clue as to probable risk before visiting vulnerable people, for example, so that we can behave responsibly if we wish. PCR is still used for deciding on  quarantine,  etc.

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On 7/6/2021 at 8:52 PM, KSera said:

Fauci’s statement several days ago about 99.2% of US Covid deaths in June being unvaccinated people made me really sad, thinking how many people that was that didn’t need to die, just in that one month. And now it also makes me mad when I continue to see people spreading anti-vax propaganda, which is killing people. When you calculate it out that’s about 8,856 people in the US who died in June who would still be alive if they had gotten their vaccine . That’s why it’s hard for me to just shrug and say to each their own when people spread lies about the vaccine being dangerous. 

Not anti-vax, but that is not necessarily an accurate interpretation.  A lot of people who are in very delicate health already are not getting vaxed, because they consider the vax at least as risky as their personal risk of Covid.  Would all of these people be alive today had they been vaccinated?  If you look at the list of people who have died after the Covid vax, you will see a rather large number of individuals who were older or in delicate health.  I'm just glad I don't have to make that kind of decision for me and mine.

It might have been more helpful to say that 0.8% of US Covid deaths in June were vaccinated people.  That is a promising statistic IMO.

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International study on the relationship between genetic variations and severe covid. 

Here's the link in Nature: 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03767-x

Boston Globe take:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2021/07/08/nation/study-genetics-may-play-role-severe-cases-covid-19/

The authors found that 13 spots on the human genome are strongly associated with infection or severe illness. Genetic variations at some of those locations are also implicated in the development of lung cancer, pulmonary fibrosis, and certain autoimmune diseases.

Ben Neale, co-director of the Broad’s Program in Medical and Population Genetics and co-senior author of the study, said that although vaccines protect people from catching COVID-19, doctors still need better drugs to treat those who get infected. Identifying genetic markers associated with severe illness could help scientists develop those medicines.

“The better we get at treating COVID-19, the better equipped the medical community could be to manage the disease,” he said. “If we had a mechanism of treating infection and getting someone out of the hospital, that would radically alter our public health response.”

Genetic variations at two of the 13 locations pinpointed by the scientists occurred more frequently in patients of East Asian or South Asian ancestry than in those of European descent, underscoring the importance of collecting data from a diverse group of people.

The researchers involved in the 16-month-old effort, officially called the COVID-19 Host Genomics Initiative, plan to update their findings as they collect more data. They want to learn, among other things, whether genetic variations make someone more likely to become a COVID-19 “long-hauler,” with debilitating symptoms that linger for months.

Mark Daly, director of the Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland at the University of Helsinki and an institute member at the Broad Institute, helped start the international study. He and his colleagues, he said, hope “to get a good handful of very concrete therapeutic hypotheses in the next year.”

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1 hour ago, SKL said:

Not anti-vax, but that is not necessarily an accurate interpretation.  A lot of people who are in very delicate health already are not getting vaxed, because they consider the vax at least as risky as their personal risk of Covid.  Would all of these people be alive today had they been vaccinated?  If you look at the list of people who have died after the Covid vax, you will see a rather large number of individuals who were older or in delicate health.  I'm just glad I don't have to make that kind of decision for me and mine.

It might have been more helpful to say that 0.8% of US Covid deaths in June were vaccinated people.  That is a promising statistic IMO.

Obviously we can’t say for sure how many would have lived, but I can’t see any reasonable interpretation that the vast majority of them wouldn’t have. I calculated it for if the unvaccinated were vaccinated and had the same 0.8% rate of Covid deaths. Statistically, people who are at higher risk of dying from Covid are vastly more likely to be vaccinated. So, the unvaccinated population is actually a younger, healthier population on average than the vaccinated. 

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23 minutes ago, KSera said:

Obviously we can’t say for sure how many would have lived, but I can’t see any reasonable interpretation that the vast majority of them wouldn’t have. I calculated it for if the unvaccinated were vaccinated and had the same 0.8% rate of Covid deaths. Statistically, people who are at higher risk of dying from Covid are vastly more likely to be vaccinated. So, the unvaccinated population is actually a younger, healthier population on average than the vaccinated. 

Right, to the bold, but that doesn't tell us anything about the unvaccinated people who are dying.

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35 minutes ago, SKL said:

Right, to the bold, but that doesn't tell us anything about the unvaccinated people who are dying.

I think that would be a better argument if the numbers weren’t very close to all deaths being in the unvaccinated. We should have enough data now to be able to put together a comparison of the population that is dying now versus the population that was before vaccines. Or, the ages and conditions in the unvaccinated people who are dying compared to the ages and conditions in the vaccinated people who are dying. I have to run right now, but it seems possible to do that by digging into the data here:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
 

A quick glance at the data when sorted out by month makes me think we might be able to see a trend where deaths are in proportionately younger people then they were. That would match what healthcare workers are saying. I’ll look more when I’m home later. (although honestly, while I’m interested in the exact data, I don’t think this is even an argument.)

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3 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I guess that Delta in a largely unvaccinated country. I suspect internal borders will close to us for a time. I feel a bit scared about that. 

I’m so sorry! I hope cases can be brought back under control and meanwhile vaccines can get out even more quickly. Are border closures effective enough to keep the virus from escaping NSW if the other states end their outbreaks?

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2 minutes ago, KSera said:

I’m so sorry! I hope cases can be brought back under control and meanwhile vaccines can get out even more quickly. Are border closures effective enough to keep the virus from escaping NSW if the other states end their outbreaks?

All other states have ended their outbreaks. They all had very very strict short lockdowns. Sydney went for the gentle approach

Border lockdowns have worked so far. But it is very very hard on border towns 

Edited by Melissa in Australia
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Just now, KSera said:

I’m so sorry! I hope cases can be brought back under control and meanwhile vaccines can get out even more quickly. Are border closures effective enough to keep the virus from escaping NSW if the other states end their outbreaks?

Outbreaks tend to come in from o/s through quarantine leaks. So yes, border closures will protect other states from this outbreak but they could have a similar outbreak at any time when Delta leaks from quarantine. Our state is only 9 % vaccinated; I'm not sure if other states have higher or lower rates. 

 

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Just now, lauraw4321 said:

I hadn’t visited this thread in awhile, but now I’m facing the possibility of sending my un-vaxed kids to school with masks optional in one of the lowest vax rate states in the US. While delta variant surges.  I just don’t know what to do. 

Well, this IS a homeschooling board and all 😉 . 

Seriously, though, I know what you mean, and I'm not in a low vaccination state. I've signed DD5 for an indoor homeschool class, and I have literally no clue whether I'll be able to send her. I can't see past the next few months.  

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Well, this IS a homeschooling board and all 😉 . 

Seriously, though, I know what you mean, and I'm not in a low vaccination state. I've signed DD5 for an indoor homeschool class, and I have literally no clue whether I'll be able to send her. I can't see past the next few months.  

I know HS is an option. But my kids will be so pissed if I pull them and I was hoping to ramp up work. Not off ramp. Again. 

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1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

I have to say, I've always felt like the summer was a reprieve, nothing else. I don't like that the reprieve looks like it might be over quite soon, though 😞 . I was hoping it'd last until October, like last year. 

Edited by Not_a_Number
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1 minute ago, lauraw4321 said:

I know HS is an option. But my kids will be so pissed if I pull them and I was hoping to ramp up work. Not off ramp. Again. 

I feel for your kids.  This sucks.  More than sucks.  Just never ending suckage.  Did they go in person this year?  Could you do virtual?  Can you go back in person at anytime if you want? 

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

I have to say, I've always felt like the summer was a reprieve, nothing else. I don't like that the reprieve looks like it might be over quite soon, though 😞 . I was hoping it'd last until October, like last year. 

I was hoping for something better than last year.  Sucks.  Of course I hope they are wrong.  I hope places that have high vaccination rates fare better.  I am just hoping upon hope.  This has to be over sometime.

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1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

I was hoping for something better than last year.  Sucks.  Of course I hope they are wrong.  I hope places that have high vaccination rates fare better.  I am just hoping upon hope.  This has to be over sometime.

I'm watching the Israel numbers with a lot of unhappiness, I have to say. They were always my bellwether. 

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1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

Yep.  It isn't a good sign.  I don't even have words to express how disappointing it is to see that.  

I know, right? 😞 

We've been unmasked in playgrounds for less than a month. I see us going back to masking in a few weeks, at this rate 😕 . I've been waiting on more data in long COVID in kids and I haven't gotten it, so it still freaks me out, especially for DD8, who is almost 9 and doesn't seem in the "obviously protected" category like DD5. 

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21 minutes ago, lauraw4321 said:

I hadn’t visited this thread in awhile, but now I’m facing the possibility of sending my un-vaxed kids to school with masks optional in one of the lowest vax rate states in the US. While delta variant surges.  I just don’t know what to do. 

I would just buy them good N95 masks to wear.

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22 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I feel for your kids.  This sucks.  More than sucks.  Just never ending suckage.  Did they go in person this year?  Could you do virtual?  Can you go back in person at anytime if you want? 

They went in person the second half of last year. We HS first half. We tried virtual, but it was a disaster. Maybe it would go better? I can put them back in whenever but it’s so disruptive. 

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1 minute ago, lauraw4321 said:

They went in person the second half of last year. We HS first half. We tried virtual, but it was a disaster. Maybe it would go better? I can put them back in whenever but it’s so disruptive. 

I think virtual school doesn't work 😕. Not with that number of kids. You'd be better off homeschooling and doing small online classes. 

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1 minute ago, lauraw4321 said:

They went in person the second half of last year. We HS first half. We tried virtual, but it was a disaster. Maybe it would go better? I can put them back in whenever but it’s so disruptive. 

It sucks for parents that there are no good choices.  You don't even know what the right choice is?  Keep them home to be safer or let them be in things which brings more risk but is good for their emotional health.  I am struggling with this all the time too.  

When they went back in person were their masks and such?  Maybe they will change and make masks mandatory by the time school starts?  Or are you going back soon?  

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2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I think virtual school doesn't work 😕. Not with that number of kids. You'd be better off homeschooling and doing small online classes. 

I think it does and it can for people.  And it doesn't for others.  Depends on the kids and parents, but also a lot on the kind of program you have and the help.  We have done virtual school for years and we love it, the kids excel, and it was a good fit for us even before covid.  All 5 of my kids were in it last year.  But our school and the teachers are awesome and it is set up so well.  I know a lot of the schools that had to switch to virtual were not set up well.

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1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

It sucks for parents that there are no good choices.  You don't even know what the right choice is?  Keep them home to be safer or let them be in things which brings more risk but is good for their emotional health.  I am struggling with this all the time too.  

When they went back in person were their masks and such?  Maybe they will change and make masks mandatory by the time school starts?  Or are you going back soon?  

Yes, there were masks for everyone, strict seating charts (for contact tracing), eating  in the classrooms. School starts in 3 weeks. They haven’t announced anything yet, but they dropped the mask mandate over the summer for summer classes and the neighboring school district announced all masks optional. My oldest is vaxxed and will be back in person regardless. It’s not a required vax because the legislature passed a law saying schools couldn’t require it. 

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5 minutes ago, lauraw4321 said:

Yes, there were masks for everyone, strict seating charts (for contact tracing), eating  in the classrooms. School starts in 3 weeks. They haven’t announced anything yet, but they dropped the mask mandate over the summer for summer classes and the neighboring school district announced all masks optional. My oldest is vaxxed and will be back in person regardless. It’s not a required vax because the legislature passed a law saying schools couldn’t require it. 

That is great your oldest is vaccinated.  I thought they weren't old enough based on your sig.  I think that age group gets so much out of being around peers.  Ugh 3 weeks.  Can you contact the school and ask what they will be doing.  Maybe have them go back after the younger ones get vaxxed?  Hopefully that is coming soon.

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Just now, Terabith said:

If you were fully vaccinated but had had a fair amount of contact with the public in the last week and were feeling slightly under the weather (not sick exactly, but not great), would you go get a covid test?

Yep.   I don't know the percent chance of it being covid, but I think knowing is better than not.

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@Ausmumof3@mathnerd

@Not_a_Numberhttps://www.todayonline.com/singapore/singapore-study-shows-covid-19-mrna-vaccines-are-69-effective-against-delta-variant-ong-ye
”SINGAPORE — A study of 1,000 household contacts of Covid-19 cases in Singapore has shown that messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines have an effectiveness of 69 per cent against the Delta variant of the coronavirus, regardless of symptoms, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said. 

Speaking at a virtual press conference on Wednesday (July 7), he said the study by the National Centre for Infectious Diseases and the Ministry of Health (MOH) looked at household contacts of Covid-19 cases between September last year and the end of May this year. 

The findings are quite consistent with international observations, he added. 

Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines approved for Singapore's vaccination programme use mRNA technology.

“Recently, there was a reported figure from Israel that the Pfizer vaccine’s efficacy against infection is 64 per cent. Ours registered as 69 per cent, so it's roughly that,” Mr Ong said.

“And this data will be submitted for international publication as Singapore's contribution to the understanding of the Delta variant and the vaccines.””

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Just now, mommyoffive said:

Yep.   I don't know the percent chance of it being covid, but I think knowing is better than not.

That's what I was leaning to.  I think it's almost certainly not covid and more likely related to just not having slept well and sorta wrenching my back, but it seems like one of those things that would be better to know than not know.

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1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

That is great your oldest is vaccinated.  I thought they weren't old enough based on your sig.  I think that age group gets so much out of being around peers.  Ugh 3 weeks.  Can you contact the school and ask what they will be doing.  Maybe have them go back after the younger ones get vaxxed?  Hopefully that is coming soon.

Yeah, oldest is 13. I’ve forgotten how to update my sig. 🤦‍♀️  I’m asking around and hoping to get some answers. 

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7 minutes ago, lauraw4321 said:

Yeah, oldest is 13. I’ve forgotten how to update my sig. 🤦‍♀️  I’m asking around and hoping to get some answers. 

I think what is so hard is that there are not any answers.  Only best guessing and your own risk being weighed.  It is also so hard that everything is changing everyday and what you felt ok doing 3 months ago could be different now.  

If the cases are high and no measures being taken, for me I would keep my kids home.  But I am really conservative with covid, although I was just trying to ease up a bit.

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16 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

@Ausmumof3@mathnerd

@Not_a_Numberhttps://www.todayonline.com/singapore/singapore-study-shows-covid-19-mrna-vaccines-are-69-effective-against-delta-variant-ong-ye
”SINGAPORE — A study of 1,000 household contacts of Covid-19 cases in Singapore has shown that messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines have an effectiveness of 69 per cent against the Delta variant of the coronavirus, regardless of symptoms, Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said. 

Speaking at a virtual press conference on Wednesday (July 7), he said the study by the National Centre for Infectious Diseases and the Ministry of Health (MOH) looked at household contacts of Covid-19 cases between September last year and the end of May this year. 

The findings are quite consistent with international observations, he added. 

Both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines approved for Singapore's vaccination programme use mRNA technology.

“Recently, there was a reported figure from Israel that the Pfizer vaccine’s efficacy against infection is 64 per cent. Ours registered as 69 per cent, so it's roughly that,” Mr Ong said.

“And this data will be submitted for international publication as Singapore's contribution to the understanding of the Delta variant and the vaccines.””

Thank you! I am actually looking for more studies of this kind on the effectiveness of mRNA vaccine on Delta variant as 2 of my friends abroad passed away from Delta infection in the past few months even though they were vaccinated (Jannsen in their case, not mRNA). Their families are wondering if it is worthwhile to take an mRNA vaccine on top of their current vaccines if it would mean better protection against the more deadly Delta Plus variant that is showing up now. I am passing on this link to them ... 

I am puzzled how all these studies are done on small number of recipients of the vaccine (both the Israel and the UK one) because by now, the vaccines have been out for a while to millions. It is high time for a US based study on a larger number of vaccine recipients.

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