wuhan - coronavirus

[Ausmumof3]

No new cases for VIC, ACT, WA and NT

QLD had five but are coming out of lockdown anyway.

35 for NSW. Now 5 people in ICU.

No update from SA but hopefully no news is good news.  The testing queue was quite long today but that could be all the Victorians getting tested.

[KSera]

Protecting The Immuno-Compromised Against COVID Could Be Key To Ending The Pandemic

[popmom]

Apologies if this has already been posted. This seems to indicate what some have predicted—that as the virus mutates, it becomes more contagious but less virulent. Page 8 and 12.

I also found it interesting the vaccine status of those who died from the Delta variant. So when I was reading the data on page 8, I thought…well, this is because of high vaccine uptake in the UK. But page 12 seems to suggest otherwise. 
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997414/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf

 

 

 

[KSera]

43 minutes ago, popmom said:

Apologies if this has already been posted. This seems to indicate what some have predicted—that as the virus mutates, it becomes more contagious but less virulent. Page 8 and 12.

I also found it interesting the vaccine status of those who died from the Delta variant. So when I was reading the data on page 8, I thought…well, this is because of high vaccine uptake in the UK. But page 12 seems to suggest otherwise. 
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997414/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf

 

 

 

Thanks for linking. How so do you mean Page 12 suggests otherwise? I do think it would be very helpful to know the demographics of those who have died. From the little information on that I have seen reported, it suggests that the people who are becoming very ill and those dying from Covid after being fully vaccinated, are particularly elderly or otherwise in poor health. Given that, the numbers would make more sense. If most of the people becoming ill with Covid after being vaccinated are those that are already at high risk, they are more likely to succumb than healthier people. 
 

The part on Delta outbreaks in schools is unfortunately confounded. It’s very clear that school outbreaks have exploded in the UK, but it’s hard to know if that’s more due to Delta or due to the fact that they removed masking in schools when kids returned from their break, which happened to be at the same time the Delta hit there. Really bad timing. 
 

Edited July 4, 2021 by KSera

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, popmom said:

Apologies if this has already been posted. This seems to indicate what some have predicted—that as the virus mutates, it becomes more contagious but less virulent. Page 8 and 12.

I also found it interesting the vaccine status of those who died from the Delta variant. So when I was reading the data on page 8, I thought…well, this is because of high vaccine uptake in the UK. But page 12 seems to suggest otherwise. 
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997414/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf

 

 

 

I think that’s more because of the vaccine status of the vulnerable isn’t it. Page 43 indicates that Delta is actually more severe which is what most of the epidemiologists here are saying. I’m not sure if I’m interpreting what you’re saying correctly though.

[Ausmumof3]

 

[Ausmumof3]

On a more serious note it looks like worldwide the number of cases is turning around again.  Indonesia is having record cases and borderline oxygen supply shortages.  Russia also seems to be having a third wave with over 25,000 cases today.  On the more positive side Israel had the 9th day of no deaths.  It still seems like deaths aren’t following cases in the UK which is I guess what we’d expect from successful vaccination. 

[Roadrunner]

Has anybody seen info on what are Moderna and Pfizer production capacities per month or a year? 
 

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

Has anybody seen info on what are Moderna and Pfizer production capacities per month or a year? 
 

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/05/10/2226107/0/en/BioNTech-Announces-First-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results-and-Corporate-Update.html
 

pfizer is expected to reach 3billion annually by the end of 2021.  Given that everyone needs two doses I guess that’s still four or five years to vaccinate the world.  And of course wealthier countries are securing booster shots. But that is just Pfizer.

[popmom]

11 hours ago, KSera said:

Thanks for linking. How so do you mean Page 12 suggests otherwise? I do think it would be very helpful to know the demographics of those who have died. 

What I’m saying is that it looks like Delta is less virulent. The death rate is much lower, and it’s not because so many people have been vaccinated—since around half of the deaths actually occurred in vaccinated people. I agree that demographics would be helpful here, but I’m assuming it’s mostly the older population.
 

I am not suggesting the vaccines don’t work. 

8 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I think that’s more because of the vaccine status of the vulnerable isn’t it. Page 43 indicates that Delta is actually more severe which is what most of the epidemiologists here are saying. I’m not sure if I’m interpreting what you’re saying correctly though.

Page 43 is referencing “complementary” data (from a different source?) which is worth noting but doesn’t agree with this report’s numbers. 
 

Again I’m not saying the vaccines don’t work, and I’m not trying to downplay the seriousness of it. I’m just looking at Delta’s numbers here. The numbers don’t lie.
 

Even Fauci has acknowledged that generally speaking viruses mutate to become more infectious but less virulent—he just won’t make any claims about Delta yet which is understandable. 
 

Even if Delta is less virulent, it’s still going to be very serious considering how few across the world have been vaccinated. My hope is that it would not cause the devastation that we had late last year. 
 

 

[Penelope]

12 hours ago, popmom said:

Apologies if this has already been posted. This seems to indicate what some have predicted—that as the virus mutates, it becomes more contagious but less virulent. Page 8 and 12.

I also found it interesting the vaccine status of those who died from the Delta variant. So when I was reading the data on page 8, I thought…well, this is because of high vaccine uptake in the UK. But page 12 seems to suggest otherwise. 
 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/997414/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_16.pdf

 

 

 

Case fatality rate depends also on the denominator- how many of the mild cases they are finding or missing. 
 

So some of this could be that they are catching more asymptomatic or mild cases now that case counts are lower and more manageable, compared to the alpha surge where numbers of sick people were enormous.

Case fatality also depends who is getting infected. If more of the infections are in younger people, whether vaccinated or unvaccinated, the case fatality rate will be orders of magnitude lower.

On Delta and schools, some UK experts have pointed out that cases detected by schools due to screening doesn’t mean the infections were contracted in schools, and that some areas have had more intense testing for variants than others, that the report is clear that the precise role of schools isn’t clear.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1408445575268294663.html

A thread, with an embedded thread from one of the PHE epidemiologists which notes “Since Alpha variant (B.1.1.7), all the subsequent variants have been intensely managed by HPTs, as their small numbers made them containable. This means CIMS data on Alpha variants is not at all comparable to any other variant work, due to Alpha outbreaks not getting onto CIMS.

As Delta variant’s case numbers have risen, there are more outbreaks in all settings and some of those settings are prioritised. For example outbreaks related to schools are intensively managed and so will all end up on CIMS.“

 

ETA and from what I’ve seen, the consensus even in the US seems to be that there isn’t any hard evidence Delta is more virulent, but also, can’t yet say it is LESS virulent, either. 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2021 by Penelope

[Not_a_Number]

6 minutes ago, popmom said:

What I’m saying is that it looks like Delta is less virulent. The death rate is much lower, and it’s not because so many people have been vaccinated—since around half of the deaths actually occurred in vaccinated people. I agree that demographics would be helpful here, but I’m assuming it’s mostly the older population.

That doesn't follow, though. You'd need to know the demographics for that. Like, if it's almost entirely infecting unvaccinated younger people, then the numbers would be skewed towards a much lower death rate, since the riskier people wouldn't be catching it in the first place. 

[popmom]

1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

That doesn't follow, though. You'd need to know the demographics for that. Like, if it's almost entirely infecting unvaccinated younger people, then the numbers would be skewed towards a much lower death rate, since the riskier people wouldn't be catching it in the first place. 

That makes sense. Here is an article that goes into the demographics more. The vast majority of the deaths are in the over 50 age group, but most of the cases overall were in the under 50 age group. 

Number crunching the latest data from England, 92,029 cases were analyzed between early February and mid-June and were attributed to the delta variant.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/who-is-most-at-risk-from-the-delta-variant.html

 

Almost 82,500 of these total cases were recorded in people under 50 years old and a majority (53,822 cases) were found in unvaccinated individuals.

Among those cases in the unvaccinated cohort, the vast majority were in the under-50 age group (52,846 cases) and only 976 cases were in the over-50s.

Nonetheless, the data showed that there have been 117 deaths among people in England who had the delta variant with the majority being in the over-50 age group.

There have been eight fatalities among the under-50s with six of them in unvaccinated individuals and the other two in people who had received one dose.

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, popmom said:

That makes sense. Here is an article that goes into the demographics more. The vast majority of the deaths are in the over 50 age group, but most of the cases overall were in the under 50 age group. 

Number crunching the latest data from England, 92,029 cases were analyzed between early February and mid-June and were attributed to the delta variant.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/29/who-is-most-at-risk-from-the-delta-variant.html

 

Almost 82,500 of these total cases were recorded in people under 50 years old and a majority (53,822 cases) were found in unvaccinated individuals.

Among those cases in the unvaccinated cohort, the vast majority were in the under-50 age group (52,846 cases) and only 976 cases were in the over-50s.

Nonetheless, the data showed that there have been 117 deaths among people in England who had the delta variant with the majority being in the over-50 age group.

There have been eight fatalities among the under-50s with six of them in unvaccinated individuals and the other two in people who had received one dose.

So maybe a good comparison would be to see what the death rate is in unvaccinated under-50s for the original strain? How many unvaccinated under-50s were there in total? 

[Ausmumof3]

Here in Aus there’s been no new local cases for WA, Vic, Sa, TAS or ACT or NT. Qld had 4 all alpha strain and all linked to known sources. After a lower day on the weekend NSW had 35 including 7 who were in the community infectious. One is linked to a primary school and two are in ages care.  So far those in aged care have been in vaccinated residents (aside from the two in staff) but to date they are asymptomatic which is positive. Border closures and restrictions are lifting again gradually aside from NSW.

Edited July 5, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Pen]

19 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

So maybe a good comparison would be to see what the death rate is in unvaccinated under-50s for the original strain? How many unvaccinated under-50s were there in total? 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2

 

[Penelope]

20 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

So maybe a good comparison would be to see what the death rate is in unvaccinated under-50s for the original strain? How many unvaccinated under-50s were there in total? 

 

45 minutes ago, Pen said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2

 

I don’t think you can really compare IFR’s done via case-catching by PCR (Delta in England) with IFR done by serology (the various other IFR calculation studies). The former is still really a Case Fatality Rate, no? Which will generally be higher, because even with screening asymptomatic people by PCR, it is unlikely you are finding every case.

 

It would be great if Delta has less severity. Also a little ironic, given some of the press about it. I look forward to the day when the world doesn’t have to care so much about the latest variant, just the people who study them and make the vaccines.
 

Edited July 5, 2021 by Penelope

[TCB]

13 minutes ago, Penelope said:

 

I don’t think you can really compare IFR’s done via case-catching by PCR (Delta in England) with IFR done by serology (the various other IFR calculation studies). The former is still really a Case Fatality Rate, no? Which will generally be higher, because even with screening asymptomatic people by PCR, it is unlikely you are finding every case.

 

It would be great if Delta has less severity. Also a little ironic, given some of the press about it. I look forward to the day when the world doesn’t have to care so much about the latest variant, just the people who study them and make the vaccines.
 

I hope it is less severe also, but doesn’t seem that way here on the ground right now. Not 100% sure we’re dealing with Delta, but known Delta very close by so it seems likely to be.

[Pen]

48 minutes ago, Penelope said:

 

I don’t think you can really compare IFR’s done via case-catching by PCR (Delta in England) with IFR done by serology (the various other IFR calculation studies). The former is still really a Case Fatality Rate, no? Which will generally be higher, because even with screening asymptomatic people by PCR, it is unlikely you are finding every case.

 

It would be great if Delta has less severity. Also a little ironic, given some of the press about it. I look forward to the day when the world doesn’t have to care so much about the latest variant, just the people who study them and make the vaccines.
 

I think that’s good logic, but does not mean nothing at all can be concluded. 

I am unaware of any apples to apples excellent stats available, including because of the problems of changing CT and case definitions

Nonetheless maybe @Not_a_Number can use what there is and get something or other out of it. 
 

[Corraleno]

Another summer camp super spreader event — more than 125  of the 450 attendees have tested positive so far:

"GALVESTON COUNTY, Texas (KTRK) -- More than 125 adults and youth from a Galveston County church camp event have tested positive for COVID-19, the church said in a statement to its members. 

"Unfortunately, upon return from camp, 125+ campers and adults reported to us that they tested positive for COVID-19," church officials said in a statement. "Additionally, hundreds more were exposed to COVID-19 at camp. And hundreds of others were likely exposed when infected people returned home from camp. We seek to remain in contact with those impacted. If you, or someone in your family, begins to have symptoms, please seek medical attention immediately."

Galveston County Health District officials said Friday they were investigating the outbreak at the five-day event that was attended by around 450 adults and children in sixth through 12th grades.

 

https://abc13.com/clear-creek-community-church-covid-outbreak-galveston-giddings/10857008/

[KSera]

6 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Another summer camp super spreader event — more than 125  of the 450 attendees have tested positive so far:

Looking at the camp’s Covid guidelines on their website, looks like their primary focus was on hand and surface hygiene. I thought it was interesting that they request people limit their contact with others for 14 days before and after going to camp; I expect not many are following that, but it at least suggests they have an awareness that people could come home from camp contagious.

[kbutton]

A church camp that friends are affiliated with has had basically everyone not vaccinated/previously infected get Covid the week their kids were there. Everything but sleeping and eating were outdoor activities. 

[KSera]

5 minutes ago, kbutton said:

A church camp that friends are affiliated with has had basically everyone not vaccinated/previously infected get Covid the week their kids were there. Everything but sleeping and eating were outdoor activities. 

I’m seeing that the household attack rate of delta appears super high (I’ve seen several places lately say that it’s 100%, but I don’t believe that, because nothing is 100% like that. It does seem that there are far more of these outbreaks where everyone unvaccinated in a household or workplace or whatever getting it.) A sleepover camp seems basically like a household as far as attack rates would go.

[Penelope]

15 hours ago, KSera said:

I’m seeing that the household attack rate of delta appears super high (I’ve seen several places lately say that it’s 100%, but I don’t believe that, because nothing is 100% like that. It does seem that there are far more of these outbreaks where everyone unvaccinated in a household or workplace or whatever getting it.) A sleepover camp seems basically like a household as far as attack rates would go.

Exactly. I think I am more surprised that anyone is surprised enough that it would make the news, that large numbers of people would catch a contagious virus at a sleep away camp. It’s not like it doesn’t happen without Covid, but Covid is even more contagious than most things that go around.

These are kids that not only sleep in the same rooms, but eat together, share bathroom facilities, maybe hugging, etc. Church camps usually have some form of community worship, too, which isn’t necessarily outside. Looking from the links, it’s not really a roughing-it kind of camp, it’s a conference center. They could have been inside for services in one large group, singing, etc.

Edited July 6, 2021 by Penelope

[frogger]

I am curious what has happened in health care capacity since this has started and if local circumstances are representative of what is going on nationwide.

 

Our hospitals do not have an extremely high number of people in them but in talking to a nurse, locally at least, it seems there are fewer employees. Many were just tired. Some retired earlier than they might have. She works a lot of overtime already  and vaccine hesitancy is high so I imagine winter will be worse. We have plenty of vaccine for everyone. The problem is people don't want it and that is a much more complicated problem to solve and the healthcare workers are tired of bearing the brunt all alone. 

 

[Corraleno]

Excerpt from an article discussing data from Johns Hopkins that, unsurprisingly, shows the lowest vax states currently have the highest case rates:

"States with below-average vaccination rates have almost triple the rate of new Covid-19 cases compared to states with above-average vaccination rates, according to new data from Johns Hopkins University.  As of Sunday, states with lower rates of vaccination reported an average of 6 new cases per 100,000 residents every day over the past week, according to Johns Hopkins. States with higher vaccination rates reported an average of 2.2 new cases per 100,000 residents each day over the past week. 

Arkansas, where less than 35% of residents were fully vaccinated Sunday, averaged 16 new cases per 100,000 residents every day over the past week, according to Johns Hopkins. That’s about five times the nationwide rate of new cases. And Arkansas is one of 10 states where the rate of new cases jumped more than 25% over the past week compared to the previous week. Of those 10 states, all but one – Delaware – had below-average vaccination rates. 

On the flip side, Vermont leads the country in vaccination rates, with 66% of its residents fully vaccinated. Vermont also has the lowest rate of new Covid-19 cases – less than 1 per 100,000 residents each day over the past week, according to Johns Hopkins. That’s a decrease of nearly 16% from the previous week.

The gap in progress between highly vaccinated states and those lagging in vaccinations keeps growing. Parts of the South, Southwest and Midwest are starting to see surges, said Dr. Jonathan Reiner, professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University. Florida is getting hit particularly hard, with about 17% of all new cases in the US being reported out of the Sunshine State, he said. 

And for young people who don’t think they need to get vaccinated, Reiner said his hospital has seen plenty of young adults suffering from Covid-19 or complications of long Covid months after infection. “What I would say to young people is that Covid-19 doesn’t have to kill you to wreck your life,” he said. 

JHU data: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region

Although the article doesn't mention it, low vax states also have very high positivity rates, e.g. the three states with the lowest vax rates are Mississippi (28% vaxxed, 16% positivity), Alabama (31% vaxxed, 20% positivity), and Arkansas (32% vaxxed, 11% positivity). Compare that to the three states with the highest vax rates, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Maine (62-66% vaxxed, 0.3-0.7% positivity.)

[TCB]

5 hours ago, frogger said:

I am curious what has happened in health care capacity since this has started and if local circumstances are representative of what is going on nationwide.

 

Our hospitals do not have an extremely high number of people in them but in talking to a nurse, locally at least, it seems there are fewer employees. Many were just tired. Some retired earlier than they might have. She works a lot of overtime already  and vaccine hesitancy is high so I imagine winter will be worse. We have plenty of vaccine for everyone. The problem is people don't want it and that is a much more complicated problem to solve and the healthcare workers are tired of bearing the brunt all alone. 

 

The vaccine hesitancy is so very sad. We are having a surge here again, low vaccine rate locally, and it is so starkly clear that vaccines work to prevent serious illness. 

[wathe]

6 hours ago, frogger said:

I am curious what has happened in health care capacity since this has started and if local circumstances are representative of what is going on nationwide.

 

Our hospitals do not have an extremely high number of people in them but in talking to a nurse, locally at least, it seems there are fewer employees. Many were just tired. Some retired earlier than they might have. She works a lot of overtime already  and vaccine hesitancy is high so I imagine winter will be worse. We have plenty of vaccine for everyone. The problem is people don't want it and that is a much more complicated problem to solve and the healthcare workers are tired of bearing the brunt all alone. 

 

True here.

1) HCWs are burnt out.  Many are transitioning out of hospital work - either retiring or transitioning to work that's not frontline.  A significant proportion are on leave - medical or "stress".  Hospitals are having trouble filling shifts in emergency departments, so departments are working short-staffed, which makes working conditions worse for those who are left, which increases the burnout rate.  It's a vicious cycle that will be hard to remedy.

2) Hospital capacity is better, but still not great.  We still have 226 in ICU because of covid in the province, (down from the third-wave April peak of 900 that nearly broke us).  For perspective, the threshold for calling a lockdown pre-third wave here was 150 in the ICU province-wide.  So 226 is better than terrible, but still not  good.  We cannot sustain another wave.

On the plus side, our vaccination rates are really good - 78% of eligible (12+) have had at least one dose, and 47% have had two doses, with the second dose rate climbing very quickly as our vaccine supply woes resolve, and the first dose rate climbing steadily.  Our re-opening has been slow and steady and appropriately cautious (our powers-that-be really seem to understand just how close we came to total health system collapse in wave 3), so I am hopeful that we will avoid a disastrous 4th wave.

 

[Melissa Louise]

Another week of lockdown tacked on to our current lockdown in Greater Sydney.

It actually makes zero difference to us - the kids and I will be working on site through that week at our various jobs. Kids working through last week and this one also. 

 

 

 

[KSera]

1 hour ago, TCB said:

The vaccine hesitancy is so very sad. We are having a surge here again, low vaccine rate locally, and it is so starkly clear that vaccines work to prevent serious illness. 

Fauci’s statement several days ago about 99.2% of US Covid deaths in June being unvaccinated people made me really sad, thinking how many people that was that didn’t need to die, just in that one month. And now it also makes me mad when I continue to see people spreading anti-vax propaganda, which is killing people. When you calculate it out that’s about 8,856 people in the US who died in June who would still be alive if they had gotten their vaccine . That’s why it’s hard for me to just shrug and say to each their own when people spread lies about the vaccine being dangerous. 

[TCB]

1 hour ago, KSera said:

Fauci’s statement several days ago about 99.2% of US Covid deaths in June being unvaccinated people made me really sad, thinking how many people that was that didn’t need to die, just in that one month. And now it also makes me mad when I continue to see people spreading anti-vax propaganda, which is killing people. When you calculate it out that’s about 8,856 people in the US who died in June who would still be alive if they had gotten their vaccine . That’s why it’s hard for me to just shrug and say to each their own when people spread lies about the vaccine being dangerous. 

I agree. It is really hard to hear the anti-vax stuff. I wish people could see what we are seeing. For some reason there seems to be a reluctance to discuss it locally, and maybe a reluctance nationally- not sure about that part, could be I’m just not in the loop about that.  It is important to maintain privacy, but I think it would be better for people to make a decision with all the facts in front of them. Having said that though, some people seem to be so invested in their view of reality that no amount of contrary evidence makes any difference. I don’t think I have ever had such a strong feeling of it being useless to try and persuade people.

[Acadie]

Over 50% of Covid cases in the US are Delta variant, up from ~30% for the 2-week period ending June 19. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/06/delta-varient-half-covid-cases-498443

The more-transmissible Delta Covid-19 strain accounted for more than half of the coronavirus cases in the U.S. between June 20 and July 3, according to new data the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released on Tuesday.

A CDC spokesperson told POLITICO surveillance data indicated the Delta variant jumped from 30.4 percent of cases for the two-week period ending June 19 to 51.7 percent between June 20 and July 3.

Edited July 7, 2021 by Acadie

[Ausmumof3]

From ABC today:

 

NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant went through the hospitalisation rate for the state:

"Currently we have 37 COVID patients admitted to hospital and of these patients there are seven people in ICU, two of whom are ventilated.

"Now this is in the context where NSW Health also provides excellent home assessment and care.

"So the fact that 37 patients have been admitted to hospital should indicate to the community the fact that COVID, including the Delta strain, is not a mild disease.

"It can be mild in some but for many it can lead to hospitalisation and death.

"Fourteen of the 37 admitted to hospital — 14 people admitted to hospital at the moment are under the able of 55... which should dispel the myth that this is something that only impacts on the elderly.

"Of those, eight are under the age of 35.

"Again, dispelling that myth that it only leads to hospitalisation for the elderly.

"Of the seven people in ICU, one is in their 30s.

"A bit of a wake-up call to young people, one in their 50s, two in their 60s and three in their 70s."

[KSera]

3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

From ABC today:

 

NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant went through the hospitalisation rate for the state:

"Currently we have 37 COVID patients admitted to hospital and of these patients there are seven people in ICU, two of whom are ventilated.

"Now this is in the context where NSW Health also provides excellent home assessment and care.

"So the fact that 37 patients have been admitted to hospital should indicate to the community the fact that COVID, including the Delta strain, is not a mild disease.

"It can be mild in some but for many it can lead to hospitalisation and death.

"Fourteen of the 37 admitted to hospital — 14 people admitted to hospital at the moment are under the able of 55... which should dispel the myth that this is something that only impacts on the elderly.

"Of those, eight are under the age of 35.

"Again, dispelling that myth that it only leads to hospitalisation for the elderly.

"Of the seven people in ICU, one is in their 30s.

"A bit of a wake-up call to young people, one in their 50s, two in their 60s and three in their 70s."

How many active cases does NSW have? I was surprised to see they have enough to have 37 in the hospital. 

[Ausmumof3]

also some interesting stats.  I wouldn’t 100pc rely on that not being to do with people relaxing their standards though.

[Melissa Louise]

6 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

From ABC today:

 

NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant went through the hospitalisation rate for the state:

"Currently we have 37 COVID patients admitted to hospital and of these patients there are seven people in ICU, two of whom are ventilated.

"Now this is in the context where NSW Health also provides excellent home assessment and care.

"So the fact that 37 patients have been admitted to hospital should indicate to the community the fact that COVID, including the Delta strain, is not a mild disease.

"It can be mild in some but for many it can lead to hospitalisation and death.

"Fourteen of the 37 admitted to hospital — 14 people admitted to hospital at the moment are under the able of 55... which should dispel the myth that this is something that only impacts on the elderly.

"Of those, eight are under the age of 35.

"Again, dispelling that myth that it only leads to hospitalisation for the elderly.

"Of the seven people in ICU, one is in their 30s.

"A bit of a wake-up call to young people, one in their 50s, two in their 60s and three in their 70s."

I don't know why it would be a wake up call - young people are more likely to be working out of the home in retail, and vanishingly less likely to be able to access vaccination. 

Chant should have said it was a wake up call for those holding parties. 

[Ausmumof3]

27 minutes ago, KSera said:

How many active cases does NSW have? I was surprised to see they have enough to have 37 in the hospital. 

347 active so I guess around 10pc hospitalised 

[Ausmumof3]

26 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I don't know why it would be a wake up call - young people are more likely to be working out of the home in retail, and vanishingly less likely to be able to access vaccination. 

Chant should have said it was a wake up call for those holding parties. 

Yeah true.  It’s not exactly a wake up call if you’re awake but trapped 😬

[Melissa Louise]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Oh, super. 

Maybe shut the shops! 

Mutterings about putting my LGA in stricter lockdown? 

[Melissa in Australia]

9 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Oh, super. 

Maybe shut the shops! 

Mutterings about putting my LGA in stricter lockdown? 

Well mayby NSW should try a proper lockdown. Like all other states do. 

[Melissa Louise]

2 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

Well mayby NSW should try a proper lockdown. Like all other states do. 

Gladys won't do that. 

I don't vote for her - Victorians, don't blame all of us! 

 

 

 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-07/nsw-delta-variant-may-never-be-controlled/100273956

Oh, super. 

Maybe shut the shops! 

Mutterings about putting my LGA in stricter lockdown? 

This is beyond frustrating!  They absolutely could have controlled it if they locked down earlier and still could if they did the job properly.  In four to five months time after a decent vaccine rollout this would be a rational response.  Right now it really doesn’t seem like it!

[Melissa Louise]

2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

This is beyond frustrating!  They absolutely could have controlled it if they locked down earlier and still could if they did the job properly.  In four to five months time after a decent vaccine rollout this would be a rational response.  Right now it really doesn’t seem like it!

I'm really pissed off. Softly, softly while the clusters were in the Eastern suburbs - as soon as it hits the Western suburbs, Hazard is wagging his finger, talking up how the govt  giving up will be on the heads of the (largely ethnic, largely working class) West. 

On top of the discovery that the extremely wealthy St Joey's school 'accidentally' got their Yr 12 cohort vaxed with Pfizer months ago...very angry. 

 

[Ausmumof3]

8 hours ago, KSera said:

How many active cases does NSW have? I was surprised to see they have enough to have 37 in the hospital. 

I was giving this some thought and I seem to remember it mentioned that some of the people from the aged care were transferred to a hospital as a precaution even thought they didn’t have symptoms?  I can’t say for sure if they’re included but that could account for 4-5 of those cases.

[Ausmumof3]

From BNO

NEW: Netherlands reports 3,688 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 482% compared to last week. Government seeking advice to determine if measures are needed

Anyone know if there’s some kind of stat anomaly that would explain this sudden increase?

[KSera]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

From BNO

NEW: Netherlands reports 3,688 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 482% compared to last week. Government seeking advice to determine if measures are needed

Anyone know if there’s some kind of stat anomaly that would explain this sudden increase?

It seems like it’s likely a result of delta now predominant plus government removing restrictions and opening everything up. They have had a “controlled spread” approach, so may still be doing that. Their elderly have a decent vaccination rate (not as high as UK or many well vaccinated parts of US), but apparently their nightclubs and bars are now full. That will mean a lot of infections in younger people. 
 

I started wondering if their positivity rate has changed, since they are requiring test for entry many places and that’s going to increase the absolute number of cases, and it appears that positivity is increasing, but not nearly as much as the absolute case numbers might suggest: https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/07/positive-coronavirus-tests-surge-by-178-since-last-week/. 

[Arcadia]

4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

From BNO

NEW: Netherlands reports 3,688 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 482% compared to last week. Government seeking advice to determine if measures are needed

Anyone know if there’s some kind of stat anomaly that would explain this sudden increase?

My guess is increased testing of spectators due to UEFA Euro 2020 (football/soccer). The Amsterdam stadium can host 16,000 spectators. 
https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/event-guide/amsterdam/stadium/

“All ticket holders aged 5 and over must take a COVID-19 test and present the negative test certificate in form of a QR code on the CoronaCheck app before entering the stadium. Even if you’ve been vaccinated against COVID-19 or if you've been previously infected, you still need to book your test appointment via www.testenvoortoegang.org or on the CoronaCheck app.”

https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro-2020/event-guide/amsterdam/

“Matches at Johan Cruijff ArenA 

Sunday 13 June 2021 - Group C : Netherlands vs Ukraine (21:00, local time)
Thursday 17 June 2021 - Group C : Netherlands vs Austria (21:00, local time)
Monday 21 June 2021 - Group C : North Macedonia vs Netherlands (18:00, local time)
Saturday 26 June 2021 - R16: 2A vs 2B (18:00, local time)”

Edited July 7, 2021 by Arcadia
Formatting

[Melissa Louise]

Ugh. After almost two weeks of stay at home orders, numbers highest today, with over 50 % of those infectious in the community. 

 

[Laura Corin]

England planning a big opening up. Despite the high vaccination rate I'm really worried. The rationale is that the NHS can cope with an increased case load now but not during the coming flu season, people are not spreading the virus so much because they are outside in the good weather, and schools/universities are not in session. 

The confounding factor is England's success in the football tournament, leading to lots of people sitting around drinking and yelling in pubs and homes.

BBC News - Covid: What's the roadmap for lifting lockdown?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52530518

BBC News - Covid: Watching Euros may be behind rise in infections in men
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57754938

Edited July 8, 2021 by Laura Corin

[Ausmumof3]

From BNO

NEW: Indonesia reports 38,391 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record, and 852 new deaths