wuhan - coronavirus

[Longtime Lurker]

12 hours ago, ktgrok said:

I'm glad someone asked, I was thinking it was some kind of political group, lol. 

. 

Me too 🙂

[Ausmumof3]

65 for NSW today so moving in the right direction

10 for Vic

3 for QLD

had my first Pfizer so far so good!  Arm is a little dead.

[wathe]

24 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

65 for NSW today so moving in the right direction

10 for Vic

3 for QLD

had my first Pfizer so far so good!  Arm is a little dead.

Congrats on your vax!

[Melissa in Australia]

There is expected to be an announcement very shortly that Vic will be going into lockdown again tonight. 

 It has spread at the footy

[popmom]

On 7/13/2021 at 4:56 PM, TravelingChris said:

Nobody is getting tested here.

About this…

My church’s youth group just returned from a beach retreat. Many of them became ill with a flu like illness after returning. One of my friends son was a chaperone on the trip, and he came home sick. She texted me today that he won’t get a COVID test. The youth pastor—in his last email—said that the Wednesday night activities this week would be outdoors since so many were recovering from whatever they caught on the trip. I’m not happy about this response. My church so far has been really good, but this seems very sketchy to me. Would I be out of line to call the church office and ask if anyone had been tested? They just ended the outdoor worship service that I was attending. I would like to attend an indoor, mask required service, but not if they aren’t being forthcoming about positive cases. 
 

If none of them got tested…that’s just not right. I know Delta is in our state. 
 

As @TravelingChriswas saying. I think we don’t know the extent of Delta spread because people aren’t getting tested. Pandemic fatigue maybe. That and Delta’s symptoms are much more like a regular cold, so people dismiss it. 
 

[Ausmumof3]

Looks like Vic’s doing a five day lockdown. We’re doing restricted borders with Vic, 50% capacity and masks for aged care etc. QLD restrictions are sticking around for longer.

[Ausmumof3]

and I guess this is why…

COVID-19 Commander Jeroen Weimar says the state has recorded two more positive cases linked to level two of the MCG members stand.

Senior figures in the government say it is a very dynamic situation with meetings being held throughout the day on how to respond. 

A 60-year-old positive man attended the MCG on Saturday for the Carlton vs Geelong game. 

[kbutton]

8 hours ago, popmom said:

About this…

My church’s youth group just returned from a beach retreat. Many of them became ill with a flu like illness after returning. One of my friends son was a chaperone on the trip, and he came home sick. She texted me today that he won’t get a COVID test. The youth pastor—in his last email—said that the Wednesday night activities this week would be outdoors since so many were recovering from whatever they caught on the trip. I’m not happy about this response. My church so far has been really good, but this seems very sketchy to me. Would I be out of line to call the church office and ask if anyone had been tested? They just ended the outdoor worship service that I was attending. I would like to attend an indoor, mask required service, but not if they aren’t being forthcoming about positive cases. 

If none of them got tested…that’s just not right. I know Delta is in our state. 

As @TravelingChriswas saying. I think we don’t know the extent of Delta spread because people aren’t getting tested. Pandemic fatigue maybe. That and Delta’s symptoms are much more like a regular cold, so people dismiss it. 
 

I don't think it would be out of line, but I don't know if they'll give you an answer that is helpful.

A lot of people here seem to indicate that they don't test. This cuts both ways--if people end up not seriously ill, but they think they've had Delta, their own anecdata will be skewed if they don't actually have Covid. They are going to think they have some immunity (and act accordingly), and it adds to the perception that it's not a serious illness. This drives me batty. We know other nasty viruses are going around now that masks are dropped. 

[Ausmumof3]

10 cases for Vic.  The MCG situation seems like a potential super spread event here.  
 

1 for QLD that appears to be a separate outbreak through the airport based on genomics.

I have a delta question.  Part of what helped control the original strain was the k-value or non-uniformness of spread rates.  I wonder if anyone has done any calculations on whether that may have changed with delta as it seems almost every case is transmitting now.

[KSera]

25 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have a delta question.  Part of what helped control the original strain was the k-value or non-uniformness of spread rates.  I wonder if anyone has done any calculations on whether that may have changed with delta as it seems almost every case is transmitting now.

I read your post, and then right after, this showed up as a new Twitter post for me (by an aerosol scientist I read):

(over-dispersed=high K-value, so they're still thinking that's the case, but I haven't seen anything to indicate they know that yet. It does seem to have a higher secondary attack rate, but I think that's more a factor of the increased transmissibility (due to much higher viral loads and shedding) rather than the dispersion)

[RootAnn]

My state has canceled their state of emergency (or let it expire). Along with that, the widespread testing is closed. I actually have no idea where to get a test right now.

[Melissa in Australia]

97 cases for NSW, unfortunately 46 of them were out in the community. 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Melissa in Australia

[Ausmumof3]

97 for New South Wales. 77,000 tests yesterday.

[Ausmumof3]

Just now, Melissa in Australia said:

97 cases for NSW, unfortunately 63 of them were out in the community. 

Sorry posted at the same time.  I missed the 63 in the community - eek that’s high.

[Melissa in Australia]

1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Sorry posted at the same time.  I missed the 63 in the community - eek that’s high.

The news has just changed it to 46 out in the community. Someone must have done a typo

Edited July 16, 2021 by Melissa in Australia

[Melissa in Australia]

10 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

97 for New South Wales. 77,000 tests yesterday.

The record testing was probably partly because anyone leaving the higher number suburbs  for essentual work have to get tested every 3 days

[Ausmumof3]

56 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

The news has just changed it to 46 out in the community. Someone must have done a typo

Yeah must have been some confusion because ABC had it somewhere in the 20s.  I think sometimes they separate out people who were infectious in the community the whole time from people who were infectious for a day or two before they isolate which seems to give conflicting numbers.

Are you guys still out of lockdown being regional?  I haven’t caught up properly - too much happening.

[Melissa in Australia]

23 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yeah must have been some confusion because ABC had it somewhere in the 20s.  I think sometimes they separate out people who were infectious in the community the whole time from people who were infectious for a day or two before they isolate which seems to give conflicting numbers.

Are you guys still out of lockdown being regional?  I haven’t caught up properly - too much happening.

We are in lockdown. The whole state, because so many people travelled from everywhere to the footy. 

It is very hard to keep up, it is changing constantly 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Melissa in Australia

[Ausmumof3]

Worldwide is back over 500,000 for the first time since end of May.  Curve is looking pretty similar to the staff of the last wave.

[ktgrok]

22 hours ago, kbutton said:

I don't think it would be out of line, but I don't know if they'll give you an answer that is helpful.

A lot of people here seem to indicate that they don't test. This cuts both ways--if people end up not seriously ill, but they think they've had Delta, their own anecdata will be skewed if they don't actually have Covid. They are going to think they have some immunity (and act accordingly), and it adds to the perception that it's not a serious illness. This drives me batty. We know other nasty viruses are going around now that masks are dropped. 

Yeah, neighbor was sure he was immune, since he'd had exposure to a positive person bevore and didn't get it. Said he didn't need that dangerous vaccine because he's obviously immune. Then he caught it at work months later. 

[Laura Corin]

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/eating-a-plant-rich-diet-helps-to-protect-against-covid-19

Note that they looked at possible interference from issues such as BMI, ethnicity, population density - which is often a proxy for deprivation in the UK, etc. 

Plant rich, not vegetarian or vegan.

[ktgrok]

48 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/eating-a-plant-rich-diet-helps-to-protect-against-covid-19

Note that they looked at possible interference from issues such as BMI, ethnicity, population density - which is often a proxy for deprivation in the UK, etc. 

Plant rich, not vegetarian or vegan.

Thank you for specifiying! I eat more variety of veg now that I'm a meat eater than I did when I was vegetarian! 

[Jaybee]

13 hours ago, RootAnn said:

My state has canceled their state of emergency (or let it expire). Along with that, the widespread testing is closed. I actually have no idea where to get a test right now.

We can get them at a nearby urgent care. Have you checked at those? (I don't know if all of them do it, but this one seems to be really good about lots of things.)

[ktgrok]

Since Australia is so good at contact tracing, are they seeing any outdoor transmission? Feels like if anyone would know if that was actually happening, it would be Australia. 

[Corraleno]

There was another recent study on diet confirming the ZOE results:

"After adjusting for important confounders, participants who reported following ‘plant-based diets’ and ‘plant-based diets or pescatarian diets’ had 73% (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.81) and 59% (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.99) lower odds of moderate-to-severe COVID-19 severity, respectively, compared with participants who did not follow these diets. Compared with participants who reported following ‘plant-based diets’, those who reported following ‘low carbohydrate, high protein diets’ had greater odds of moderate-to-severe COVID-19 (OR 3.86, 95% CI 1.13 to 13.24)."

https://nutrition.bmj.com/content/4/1/257
 

[Corraleno]

Interesting MedCram lecture on a possible explanation for different outcomes based on diet: 
"Dr. Roger Seheult of MedCram explains new research on Neu5Gc, a sialic acid molecule found in meat and dairy, and how it may contribute to severe COVID-19 symptoms, inflammation, and certain chronic diseases and cancers."

 

 

 

[Not_a_Number]

2 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Since Australia is so good at contact tracing, are they seeing any outdoor transmission? Feels like if anyone would know if that was actually happening, it would be Australia. 

I would really love to know the answer to this myself. 

[Penelope]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/15/briefing/delta-variant-spread-contagious.html

“The Delta variant is more contagious. It does not appear to be more severe.” Multiple experts quoted, most in Twitter thread (more if you click), if you are out of free views.

Quote

 

 

Quote

Quote

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-variant-hospitalizations-covid-coronavirus-vaccine-immunity-11626374706

there is more to the thread with other info from article if you click on the link. WSJ is very stingy with free articles.

Quote

 

 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Penelope

[Laura Corin]

7 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I would really love to know the answer to this myself. 

NZ has been good on this too.

[Penelope]

13 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

There was another recent study on diet confirming the ZOE results:

"After adjusting for important confounders, participants who reported following ‘plant-based diets’ and ‘plant-based diets or pescatarian diets’ had 73% (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.81) and 59% (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.99) lower odds of moderate-to-severe COVID-19 severity, respectively, compared with participants who did not follow these diets. Compared with participants who reported following ‘plant-based diets’, those who reported following ‘low carbohydrate, high protein diets’ had greater odds of moderate-to-severe COVID-19 (OR 3.86, 95% CI 1.13 to 13.24)."

https://nutrition.bmj.com/content/4/1/257
 

Thank you! Interesting, and not surprised.

I have wished from the beginning that the message “eat lots of vegetables and get some sunshine and exercise” had been consistently promoted along with “practice physical distancing and wear a mask indoors.” 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Penelope

[Penelope]

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/huge-study-supporting-ivermectin-as-covid-treatment-withdrawn-over-ethical-concerns
 

Quote

Huge study supporting ivermectin as Covid treatment withdrawn over ethical concerns

The preprint endorsing ivermectin as a coronavirus therapy has been widely cited, but independent researchers find glaring discrepancies in the data

 

Quote

The preprint study on the efficacy and safety of ivermectin – a drug used against parasites such as worms and headlice – in treating Covid-19, led by Dr Ahmed Elgazzar from Benha University in Egypt, was published on the Research Square website in November.

It claimed to be a randomised control trial, a type of study crucial in medicine because it is considered to provide the most reliable evidence on the effectiveness of interventions due to the minimal risk of confounding factors influencing the results. Elgazzar is listed as chief editor of the Benha Medical Journal, and is an editorial board member.

The study found that patients with Covid-19 treated in hospital who “received ivermectin early reported substantial recovery” and that there was “a substantial improvement and reduction in mortality rate in ivermectin treated groups” by 90%.

But the drug’s promise as a treatment for the virus is in serious doubt after the Elgazzar study was pulled from the Research Square website on Thursday “due to ethical concerns”. Research Square did not outline what those concerns were.

Quote

It appeared that the authors had run entire paragraphs from press releases and websites about ivermectin and Covid-19 through a thesaurus to change key words. “Humorously, this led to them changing ‘severe acute respiratory syndrome’ to ‘extreme intense respiratory syndrome’ on one occasion,” Lawrence said.

The data also looked suspicious to Lawrence, with the raw data apparently contradicting the study protocol on several occasions.

Quote

Brown created a comprehensive document uncovering numerous data errors, discrepancies and concerns, which he provided to the Guardian. According to his findings the authors had clearly repeated data between patients.

“The main error is that at least 79 of the patient records are obvious clones of other records,” Brown told the Guardian. “It’s certainly the hardest to explain away as innocent error, especially since the clones aren’t even pure copies. There are signs that they have tried to change one or two fields to make them look more natural.”

Quote

Other studies on ivermectin are still under way. In the UK, the University of Oxford is testing whether giving people with Covid-19 ivermectin prevents them ending up in hospital.

The Elgazzar study was one of the the largest and most promising showing the drug may help Covid patients, and has often been cited by proponents of the drug as evidence of its effectiveness. This is despite a peer-reviewed paper published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases in June finding ivermectin is “not a viable option to treat COVID-19 patients”.

Meyerowitz-Katz told the Guardian that “this is one of the biggest ivermectin studies out there”, and it appeared to him the data was “just totally faked”. This was concerning because two meta-analyses of ivermectin for treating Covid-19 had included the Elgazzar study in the results. A meta-analysis is a statistical analysis that combines the results of multiple scientific studies to determine what the overall scientific literature has found about a treatment or intervention.

“Because the Elgazzar study is so large, and so massively positive – showing a 90% reduction in mortality – it hugely skews the evidence in favour of ivermectin,” Meyerowitz-Katz said.

“If you remove this one study from the scientific literature, suddenly there are very few positive randomised control trials of ivermectin for Covid-19. Indeed, if you get rid of just this research, most meta-analyses that have found positive results would have their conclusions entirely reversed.”

 

[KSera]

6 minutes ago, Penelope said:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/huge-study-supporting-ivermectin-as-covid-treatment-withdrawn-over-ethical-concerns
 

 

 

Yikes. That's egregious. What happens to the meta-analyses that relied on this study? Do they get retracted? This is a good example of why we need to be especially careful with data from preprints. Obviously plenty are reliable, but then things like this can get through. Will something happen to the author as a result?

[TCB]

Not sure if this is the right thread for this but I don’t think the mask threads are very active now so putting this link here about a previous study about kids and masks and CO2 concentrations that has been retracted.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2782288?fbclid=IwAR0CohQPu6VD4mzgeXMyml0gEZSE1gbqCLzC2s4G5SwyhNjDzf2vnU6DUZI

[Not_a_Number]

2 hours ago, Penelope said:

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jul/16/huge-study-supporting-ivermectin-as-covid-treatment-withdrawn-over-ethical-concerns
 

Ooooh, yikes!! That's awful. Thanks for posting this. 

 

2 hours ago, Penelope said:

It appeared that the authors had run entire paragraphs from press releases and websites about ivermectin and Covid-19 through a thesaurus to change key words. “Humorously, this led to them changing ‘severe acute respiratory syndrome’ to ‘extreme intense respiratory syndrome’ on one occasion,” Lawrence said.

That's kind of hilarious, I have to admit. 

[Corraleno]

3 hours ago, Penelope said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/15/briefing/delta-variant-spread-contagious.html

“The Delta variant is more contagious. It does not appear to be more severe.” Multiple experts quoted, most in Twitter thread (more if you click), if you are out of free views.

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-variant-hospitalizations-covid-coronavirus-vaccine-immunity-11626374706

there is more to the thread with other info from article if you click on the link. WSJ is very stingy with free articles.

 

Tweets from individuals claiming they "haven't seen any evidence" of greater virulence doesn't mean there isn't any evidence. This Scottish study found that Delta patients required hospitalization much sooner than those with other variants, and this Canadian study found that Delta significantly increased risks of hospitalization and death: "Increases with the Delta variant were more pronounced: 120% (93-153%) for hospitalization; 287% (198-399%) for ICU admission; and 137% (50-230%) for death." That study also found that "individuals with N501Y-positive variants and probable Delta infection were significantly younger and less likely to have comorbidities than individuals with non-VOC infections."

[Melissa Louise]

4 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I would really love to know the answer to this myself. 

Don't quote me, because I was only glancing at my phone during lunch break, but I'm pretty sure at the press conference yesterday (NSW) they said they hadn't seen outdoor transmission events. 

I think, though, they mean just walking past other people outdoors, not like, an outdoor concert, sports game etc. 

 

 

 

 

[Melissa in Australia]

7 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Since Australia is so good at contact tracing, are they seeing any outdoor transmission? Feels like if anyone would know if that was actually happening, it would be Australia. 

Yes. The footy 

That is why we are currently locked down. It spread at the footy. 

Every single case in Aus is contact traced and genome tested to see how it spreads

[Laura Corin]

Just now, Melissa in Australia said:

Yes. The footy 

That is why we are currently locked down. It spread at the footy. 

Every single case in Aus is contact traced and genome tested to see how it spreads

Lots of yelling and singing,  I assume. 

[Melissa Louise]

Just now, Melissa in Australia said:

Yes. The footy 

That is why we are currently locked down. It spread at the footy. 

Every single case in Aus is contact traced and genome tested to see how it spreads

Were the footy people in the stands, or up in the schmoozing part ( idk what it's called, where the rich ppl go, enclosed rooms at the top of the stand? Corporate boxes)

[Melissa in Australia]

Just now, Laura Corin said:

Lots of yelling and singing,  I assume. 

I have never been at a footy match, but I would guess that would be the case 

[Melissa in Australia]

2 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Were the footy people in the stands, or up in the schmoozing part ( idk what it's called, where the rich ppl go, enclosed rooms at the top of the stand? Corporate boxes)

They were in the members stand. I am so sports illiterate that I am unsure, but I think that is out in the open. 

It wasn't necassaraly in the immediate area of the positive person. There was at least one that was a tier 2 exposure that caught it. That is further away. 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Melissa in Australia

[Penelope]

2 hours ago, TCB said:

Not sure if this is the right thread for this but I don’t think the mask threads are very active now so putting this link here about a previous study about kids and masks and CO2 concentrations that has been retracted.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2782288?fbclid=IwAR0CohQPu6VD4mzgeXMyml0gEZSE1gbqCLzC2s4G5SwyhNjDzf2vnU6DUZI

Yeah, that one was pretty poor, apparently.

[Penelope]

18 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Tweets from individuals claiming they "haven't seen any evidence" of greater virulence doesn't mean there isn't any evidence. This Scottish study found that Delta patients required hospitalization much sooner than those with other variants, and this Canadian study found that Delta significantly increased risks of hospitalization and death: "Increases with the Delta variant were more pronounced: 120% (93-153%) for hospitalization; 287% (198-399%) for ICU admission; and 137% (50-230%) for death." That study also found that "individuals with N501Y-positive variants and probable Delta infection were significantly younger and less likely to have comorbidities than individuals with non-VOC infections."

Those studies are mentioned in the article I linked in another thread, and IIRC, in NYT. 
 

The tweets are by the authors of the articles, explaining the article and including quotes and charts for those who cannot read them because of paywalls. That is the reason I included the tweet threads. The NYT article has multiple quotes from experts. 

i was sharing because as we discussed in the other thread days ago, the experts are saying that those couple of studies don’t establish increased virulence, and then I had these articles pop up in my email. 
 

There are multiple other sources with epidemiologists and virologists over the past couple of weeks saying the same. JHU Public Health, Angela Rasmussen, all of the TwiV people, etc. They are just saying the evidence isn’t there. It also isn’t easy to determine. Just like the true R0 is no longer easy to determine when there is so much vaccination, natural immunity, mitigation’s, etc. 

Edited July 16, 2021 by Penelope

[Melissa in Australia]

So I went and looked it up. The people at the footy  at the MCG were in the opened, they did not know each other and were not sitting near each other. 

[KSera]

2 hours ago, TCB said:

Not sure if this is the right thread for this but I don’t think the mask threads are very active now so putting this link here about a previous study about kids and masks and CO2 concentrations that has been retracted.

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2782288?fbclid=IwAR0CohQPu6VD4mzgeXMyml0gEZSE1gbqCLzC2s4G5SwyhNjDzf2vnU6DUZI

What stinks is that even when these things get retracted, the original continues to stick in people’s minds even after corrected, so we will continue to forever hear people claiming that masks have been shown to be harmful 🙄. 

4 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

So I went and looked it up. The people at the footy  at the MCG were in the opened, they did not know each other and were not sitting near each other. 

Yikes. Maybe the bathrooms?

[Melissa Louise]

9 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

So I went and looked it up. The people at the footy  at the MCG were in the opened, they did not know each other and were not sitting near each other. 

Thanks. 

[Corraleno]

5 minutes ago, Penelope said:

Those studies are mentioned in the article I linked in another thread, and IIRC, in NYT. 
 

The tweets are by the authors of the articles, explaining the article and including quotes and charts for those who cannot read them because of paywalls. That is the reason I included the tweet threads. The NYT article has multiple quotes from experts. 

i was sharing because as we discussed in the other thread days ago, the experts are saying that those couple of studies don’t establish increased virulence, and then I had these articles pop up in my email. 
 

There are multiple other sources with epidemiologists and virologists over the past couple of weeks saying the same. JHU Public Health, Angela Rasmussen, all of the TwiV people, etc. 

I can't read the WSJ article, but the NYT article doesn't mention those studies at all, it just quotes a bunch people saying they haven't seen any evidence. The article's claim that Delta isn't more severe is based on a false premise: that if it was more severe than variants [that were circulating when far fewer people were vaccinated] then you would see hospitalizations and deaths rising [despite the fact that far more people are now vaccinated], and since hospitalizations and deaths are not rising, that proves Delta is not more virulent. In fact, what those graphs show is that vaccines provide decent protection against hospitalization and death, and as the percentage of people who are vaccinated increases, the percentage of people who are at risk for hospitalization and death also decreases. It doesn't show that hospitalizations and deaths are lower in unvaxxed people with Delta than in unvaxxed people with the original strain. 

[Corraleno]

5 minutes ago, KSera said:

What stinks is that even when these things get retracted, the original continues to stick in people’s minds even after corrected, so we will continue to forever hear people claiming that masks have been shown to be harmful 🙄. 

They'll just turn it upside down and use the retraction itself as proof that Big Pharma and the New World Order continue to bully and/or bribe people to hide the truth about ivermectin so they can force everyone to get vaxxed (and then control us with their magnetic microchips).

[Melissa Louise]

Re outdoors:

I checked - no transmissions in park or beach settings. 

[ktgrok]

56 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Don't quote me, because I was only glancing at my phone during lunch break, but I'm pretty sure at the press conference yesterday (NSW) they said they hadn't seen outdoor transmission events. 

I think, though, they mean just walking past other people outdoors, not like, an outdoor concert, sports game etc. 

 

 

 

 

yeah, a sports game where you are using shared bathrooms, standing in line in concession stands, etc seems riskier than a playground where you have more space. But..maybe that's wishful thinking.