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8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

UK rather than US.

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8 hours ago, KSera said:

Based on a study I read earlier this week, your impressions match what the data is showing. It said that people with Delta get sick faster and have a shorter time until hospitalization (in addition to much higher viral loads). 

Mind linking up the study? (It might be upthread somewhere, but these threads get overwhelming!) 

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56 minutes ago, calbear said:

Regarding outdoor event...there was this article documenting an outdoor wedding in Texas. 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/07/12/outdoor-wedding-6-fully-vaccinated-infected-with-covid-19-delta-variant/?sh=6bce51fa6c49

I'm clinging to the idea that most of these" outdoor events" aren't really truly exlusively outdoor, open-air events.  Most of the them seem to have an indoor component (traveling together, lodging together, clustering in indoor spaces during the outdoor event like bars and bathrooms, in tents or shelters - not really open air).

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9 minutes ago, wathe said:

I'm clinging to the idea that most of these" outdoor events" aren't really truly exlusively outdoor, open-air events.  Most of the them seem to have an indoor component (traveling together, lodging together, clustering in indoor spaces during the outdoor event like bars and bathrooms, in tents or shelters - not really open air).

But people think of these events as safe, and we aren't really getting out a clear message about what indoor/outdoor differences entail. I would really like to have solid information on things like open-sided tents and shelters (including information about size of tent and number of people), open porches with a roof, even screened in porches where air moves, but less than with no screens.

 

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3 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Mind linking up the study? (It might be upthread somewhere, but these threads get overwhelming!) 

Ive been trying to find it, but so far I’m coming up empty. I know it was new in the past week or so and I remember one of the graphics from it showing the different curve in illness progression. I’ll come back with it if I can turn it up again. I didn’t expect it to be hard to find. 

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25 minutes ago, kbutton said:

But people think of these events as safe, and we aren't really getting out a clear message about what indoor/outdoor differences entail. I would really like to have solid information on things like open-sided tents and shelters (including information about size of tent and number of people), open porches with a roof, even screened in porches where air moves, but less than with no screens.

 

I agree.  It would be helpful from a public health/population risk point of view to have a set of criteria or definition for "outdoor event".

But for assessing my own personal risk, I take some comfort from the idea that my version of an outdoor exposure is different than these events that are spreading covid.

Edited by wathe
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1 hour ago, wathe said:

I'm clinging to the idea that most of these" outdoor events" aren't really truly exlusively outdoor, open-air events.  Most of the them seem to have an indoor component (traveling together, lodging together, clustering in indoor spaces during the outdoor event like bars and bathrooms, in tents or shelters - not really open air).

I'm really hoping that's part of it. We've definitely eaten at outdoor restaurants recently, and those do have a roof over us sometimes (although I've been trying to actually get out from under the roof and away from people.) 

I'm also hoping masking does help. Our masks do stay on and seal nicely, so I hope that's useful. We do take them on and off sometimes, though... it's so hot and sometimes we aren't near anyone 😕 . 

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1 hour ago, wathe said:

I'm clinging to the idea that most of these" outdoor events" aren't really truly exlusively outdoor, open-air events.  Most of the them seem to have an indoor component (traveling together, lodging together, clustering in indoor spaces during the outdoor event like bars and bathrooms, in tents or shelters - not really open air).

Not only that but the first two infected (who at least according to the article) seem to have brought the virus, were vaccinated with Covaxin (which a quick google tells me has a 77.8% efficacy against symptomatic illness). And they were just ten days out from their second vaccination.  (I don't know if that vaccine has the same 14 days before it's fully effective advice?)

I am more concerned that the people who got it from them, were vaccinated with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. But I wonder about details.  Like did they get both doses?  How long ago? 

Edited by Jean in Newcastle
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2 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

NSW has 105 new cases. 3 removalists tested positive then decided to drive 300 km to rural NSW. 

Vic has 16 new covid cases. All connected to  the known cases

It's good the VIC cases are still connected. Really hoping they can stamp this out. 

No idea what's going on with NSW. Seems like contact tracing is a few days behind exposures now. 

Ds' workplace shut, DD quit her job  (they refused mask-wearing in some parts of the facility) but I just found out I can work from home, so that's good. Hunkering down to wait out what looks like at least another month.

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On 7/16/2021 at 9:35 AM, Jaybee said:

We can get them at a nearby urgent care. Have you checked at those?

Thank you. I live rural so "urgent care" would equal "emergency room" (1 hospital with about 8 beds). I assume they will test you if you are seeking treatment assuming you call ahead that you are exhibiting covid symptoms. I don't think they will test you except as part of an actual ER visit.

I have since remembered that some Walgreens have tests, so there might be availability in Bigger Town but definitely in Big City which is 30 minutes or 65 minutes drive, respectively. 

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7 hours ago, RootAnn said:

Thank you. I live rural so "urgent care" would equal "emergency room" (1 hospital with about 8 beds). I assume they will test you if you are seeking treatment assuming you call ahead that you are exhibiting covid symptoms. I don't think they will test you except as part of an actual ER visit.

I have since remembered that some Walgreens have tests, so there might be availability in Bigger Town but definitely in Big City which is 30 minutes or 65 minutes drive, respectively. 

A 30 minute drive is normal for me to go anywhere!  That doesn't like it's too much of an inconvenience.  (And really sound medical practice should trump inconvenience.)

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@Not_a_Number

https://m.dw.com/en/covid-hidden-long-term-harm-from-undetected-cases/a-58288038

”A German study says 40% of people infected with COVID don't know it. And long COVID symptoms may go unidentified. DW spoke to study author, Philipp Wild.

DW's Ben Fajzullin: As principal investigator of the Gutenberg COVID-19 study , how did you and your team determine that over 40% of Germans don't realize they have COVID-19?

Philipp Wild: We drew a population-based sample from local registry offices, and we asked study participants whether they had had an infection twice, four months apart. We asked them to provide a PCR test, which we did with them, and we measured their anti-bodies. Those anti-bodies indicate whether you have had an infection, no matter whether you are vaccinated or not.

And you've looked at over 10,000 people over a six-month period. 

Yes. Among the elderly, especially, there are more unknown infections — about two-thirds (63%) of the people in our study at the ages of 75 and over. Whereas, among 25 to 30-year-olds, it is only a third [of the people we asked, who had had undetected infections]. 

So, is it time to get self-tests out there — not only so people can see whether they are infected but also to work out whether they have had the virus in the past?

It's certainly a good idea to start testing people better, especially now when we're pulling back on preventative measures. We've got major public events again, like the recent European Football Championship, so we need early warning systems. And vaccinated people should also get tests because they can still transmit an infection to people who aren't vaccinated.

But we've also learnt that we still have to work out which antibodies we need to measure in individuals. The majority of people only show certain antibodies [Ed.: And there are different types]. So, we need to learn which anti-bodies to look for, depending on each individual, before we can start screening for long COVID.

How many of these unknown cases could be long COVID?

That's a matter of debate. We're still investigating this in our study, and it will take a little more time, because the definition of long COVID is six months after the [original] infection.

But what we do know is that among the known cases, 10% are thought to develop long COVID, and then 10% of them, which is 1% of all known cases, develop a severe form of long COVID. And what we must learn now is how many of the asymptomatic infections can get [long COVID].

Could there be a concern for younger people that they could have COVID, but they may not know it, and yet their organs may be damaged but that that may only come out years later?

Indeed, that's what we fear. We're asking: Is there a molecular signature, something you can measure in the blood, that indicates that you're on the way towards developing long COVID syndrome. But that is still a matter of research. Everything we're doing there right now is still speculative. We need to gather more data to be sure about how to tackle these [cases] and how to identify them. But, yes, we fear that it is possible, even in asymptomatic infections or mild infections, that a few people are at risk of developing long COVID.               

Dr. Philipp Wild is a professor of clinical epidemiology at the University of Mainz and principal investigator for the Gutenberg COVID-19 study.“

Edited by Arcadia
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1 minute ago, melmichigan said:

@Arcadia can you please fix the font on the last post?  It can't even read it on my screen with it being so large.  Thanks!

Done. Sorry I can’t tell if it becomes large when posting from my phone.

Just now, Not_a_Number said:

It doesn’t look so big to me!! Weird.

It looks normal on a phone but large in desktop mode. Don’t know why but this is the second time it happened to me.

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From ABC:

Deakin University epidemiologist Catherine Bennett said she believed it was unlikely that Victoria's lockdown would end tomorrow night.

She described the transmissibility of the Delta strain of COVID-19 as "incredible".

"The rapidity of spread does translate unfortunately to a growth each day in exposure sites. That's exactly what NSW went through," she said.

"The critical thing for us is, while we're still at this early stage, having learnt from what happened in Sydney, that we have to really push hard now to find everyone exposed who could be a case.

"That's the only way to beat the speed of the virus, to be really comprehensive in these early days."

 

 

Vic had 13 cases today.  

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On 7/16/2021 at 3:10 PM, Corraleno said:

The article's claim that Delta isn't more severe is based on a false premise: that if it was more severe than variants [that were circulating when far fewer people were vaccinated] then you would see hospitalizations and deaths rising [despite the fact that far more people are now vaccinated], and since hospitalizations and deaths are not rising, that proves Delta is not more virulent.

@Penelope I was trying to find the main conversation about delta’s virulence and this was the best I could do. I haven’t clicked through to read this article, because I only have one Atlantic article left for this month I need to decide if this is what I want to use it on 🤔. So I’m linking to a Twitter link. It looks interesting, though (I’m going to have to subscribe to The Atlantic one of these days). 

 

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On 7/9/2021 at 7:10 AM, YaelAldrich said:

I got sick last week with covid (but also could be other sicknesses) symptoms (sore throat, runny nose, headache) and am fully vaccinated (and know I have immunity through testing). I got a rapid PCR test and was negative. It was just a hellacious virus - everyone but my youngest caught it. Sinus issues, chest cold, all around horrible experience. But it wasn't covid. I had been traveling (air and car) for three weeks straight and caught something in DC at a rally.

I had something similar a couple of weeks ago.  I knew it wasn’t allergies because the kids got it.  We did a home test for covid (negative) but I still wonder because DH is vaccinated for work and he didn’t get it….

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It has been determined that there was outside transmission  at the footy at the MCG. Most of the transmission happened in areas like the bar and toilets, but there is some that were seated the whole time 

At the rugby they think transition mostly was when people were going in the gate, as people seated no where near each other, whole different tier from each other caught it. 

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2 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

 

It has been determined that there was outside transmission  at the footy at the MCG. Most of the transmission happened in areas like the bar and toilets, but there is some that were seated the whole time 

 

Ah, crud. That’s bad news. 

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Confirmed definitely not a historic case.  It was a 3 week incubation period in an elderly gentleman from Argentina. So slipped out of quarantine.  At this stage close contacts have tested negative so no lockdown but directions are being reviewed this afternoon.

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And just had a minor panic realising DH and DS were at one of the exposure sites last week but thankfully it turns out it was the day before.

Had a bit of shop related stuff to do but thinking it may be best to wait a day or two as the sites are around the areas we typically do.

The guy had been in hospital in NSW so I suspect it will turn out not to have been 3week lead time but caught in hospital over there 

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3 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Pinch points seem to be the problem - entering through gateways etc. Places which narrow, forcing ppl to move closer than they might otherwise.

 

 

Yes at the AAMI stadium 

But they are sayi g at the MCG there was transfer from seated person to seated person not immediately seated next to each other. 

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3 hours ago, KSera said:

@Penelope I was trying to find the main conversation about delta’s virulence and this was the best I could do. I haven’t clicked through to read this article, because I only have one Atlantic article left for this month I need to decide if this is what I want to use it on 🤔. So I’m linking to a Twitter link. It looks interesting, though (I’m going to have to subscribe to The Atlantic one of these days). 

 


I’m not sure why you tagged me here; is it because I linked this article in another thread last week, or just to include in the conversation? Here are some excerpts from the article. 

Quote

A more contagious virus might, at first pass, seem like a deadlier virus: Its enhanced invasion capabilities might allow it to grip more tightly onto its host, building up to levels high enough to overwhelm the body. “In that case, you could have transmissibility and virulence increasing in lockstep,” Paul Turner, an evolutionary biologist and virologist at Yale, told me—a neat, simple story. Some researchers have hypothesized that this could be the narrative behind the Alpha and Delta variants, both of which have been linked to bumps in hospitalization. But those patterns haven’t yet been conclusively nailed down, Turner said, and no evidence so far suggests that the coronavirus is systematically evolving to become more malicious. Viruses are microscopic entities hungry for spread, not carnage; the suffering of their host is not an imperative for them to persist. If a surge in virulence happens, it’s often incidental—collateral damage from an increase in contagiousness.

The march toward transmissibility doesn’t always drag virulence along. Many people have been found to silently carry tons of SARS-CoV-2 in their airways to no ill effect. On occasion, the two traits can even butt heads, forcing viruses to become tamer over time in service of speedier spread. The hypervirulent myxoma virus, a pathogen deliberately introduced into Australian rabbits in the 1950s as a form of biocontrol, for instance, appears to have become less lethal over time. Instead of killing rabbits instantly, it began to prolong its hosts’ sickness—and by extension, its own infectious window.

But myxoma is more exception than rule. Super-deadly or debilitating viruses such as Ebola and dengue, Fauver pointed out, don’t seem to be getting gentler; they already spread just fine. SARS-CoV-2 may have especially little reason to domesticate itself, since so much of its transmission happens before serious symptoms appear: “It’s not killing people before they can pass it on to someone else,” Rasmussen said. If the fates of SARS-CoV-2’s virulence and transmission aren’t tightly coupled, “there’s no responsible way to make any predictions about how virulence is going to change right now,” says Brandon Ogbunu, an evolutionary and computational biologist at Yale.

 

Quote

Alpha and Delta may still be, particle for particle, more formidable foes than other variants; if they’re consistently driving more disease, hospitalization, and death, those trends are certainly worth paying attention to. But definitively tying them to specific viral traits or mutations is difficult, in part because virulence itself is a murky concept. “It’s kind of a disastrous word,” Ogbunu told me. It’s meant to convey the damage caused to a host by a pathogen. But damage is subjective, and depends at least as much on the host as it does on the virus. While measuring transmissibility can mean simply asking whether a variant is present and to what extent, sussing out virulence is a more qualitative interrogation, of how virus and body interact, across a bevy of different environments. If variants are weeds, virulence asks how pernicious they are, and the answer can be heavily influenced by the delicacy of the garden plants they’re throttling.

Hospitalizations and deaths, some of the best real-world readouts for virulence, by themselves can be fraught metrics to use, says Müge Çevik, a virologist and infectious-disease expert at the University of St. Andrews, in the U.K. Not all places have the same standards of care, or the same access to treatments. Sick people might be admitted to a hospital because of a nastier form of the virus—or because of risk factors that made them more vulnerable to begin with. Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 has also been building over time, muddling susceptibility further. And much of the hardship caused by the coronavirus remains outside hospital walls. The difficulty of comparing populations may be part of the reason why different studies looking into variant severity have sometimes turned up discordant results. Ballooning case rates also have a way of reinforcing themselves: When many people suddenly get sick—perhaps because a more transmissible variant has emerged—medical infrastructure gets overwhelmed, and more people might die, even if the virus itself is no more harmful. “The epidemiology is so noisy, i

This podcast transcript with Dr. Rasmussen has a similar explanation.

https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/delta-covid-variant/

 

Quote

RA FLATOW: And we still don’t know if it’s more likely to cause serious illness.

ANGELA RASMUSSEN: That’s something that I think is very, very difficult to try to figure out with epidemiologic data. Human populations and populations of unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people are going to be different in every community and in every place where the delta variant might be spreading. And if you end up seeing an increase in people going to the hospital relative to other variants, it could be just that different people are getting infected. People with other risk factors.

But because it’s infecting more people it appears that it is more pathogenic or virulent. So that’s something that still remains to be seen and there are studies trying to get to the bottom of this. But to me, the take home message for everybody is really clear. You should get fully vaccinated because full vaccination does provide strong protection against the delta variants.


Incidentally, what is the rule around here, or general rule, on how much of the article is okay to copy with a link included? 

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I just saw this article about the long covid studies...

A new study led by researchers at University College London is presenting the largest investigation into the symptoms of long COVID conducted to date. The research surveyed nearly 4,000 long COVID subjects spanning 56 countries.

Only 6.8 percent of the entire cohort had completely recovered and were symptom-free by the time the study was completed. The vast majority of long COVID patients surveyed (89.1 percent) reported exercise or stress as the primary trigger for symptom relapses, and almost half of the cohort were working less than they were pre-illness.


The article later says that they estimate there are 2 million long covid patients in the UK currently. It made me think about the implications of that across the world and the immense burden of this.

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/new-study-long-covid-symptoms-coronavirus/

Edited by calbear
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51 minutes ago, Penelope said:


I’m not sure why you tagged me here; is it because I linked this article in another thread last week, or just to include in the conversation? Here are some excerpts from the article. 

This podcast transcript with Dr. Rasmussen has a similar explanation.

https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/delta-covid-variant/

 


Incidentally, what is the rule around here, or general rule, on how much of the article is okay to copy with a link included? 

Sorry, I didn’t see that you had already linked that article. I saw it and thought of the conversations about virulence I had read on one or more threads here that I thought was primarily between you and @Not_a_Numberand @Corraleno .

I can’t remember what the rule is on quoting. I tend to think a couple paragraphs is probably in the ballpark? It might be more of an issue with articles like that that are behind a (semi) pay wall. Including a link to the source is important, of course.

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Looks like the case did spread to at least the daughter and we are going straight to stage 4 restrictions till Friday.  Still trying to figure out what that will mean exactly, but at least kids sport is off for this week and masking etc it back for shops.  Non essential retail shut.

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NSW recorded a 5th death, a 50 year old woman found dead at home.

New South Wales has recorded its fifth death from the COVID-19 Delta outbreak after a woman in her 50s was found dead inside her home in Green Valley in Sydney’s south west.

Key points:

  • The removalists travelled 300km from West Hoxton to Molong in the state's Central West
  • NSW Health said the woman had COVID-19 and was a close contact of another case
  • They have each been charged with breaching public health orders

The ABC understands the woman is the mother of twin removalists charged with breaching public health orders after travelling from Sydney to the Central West.

The brothers and another colleague received a call from NSW Health on Friday informing them that one had tested positive for coronavirus.

It is alleged the trio continued driving to Molong to finish the delivery.

A NSW Health spokesperson confirmed the woman's death and said she was a confirmed COVID-19 case and a close contact of another case. 

LIVE UPDATES: Read our blog for the latest news on the COVID-19 pandemic.

"This is the 61st death in NSW related to COVID-19 and the fifth of the current outbreak," the spokesperson said.

"NSW Health extends its sincere sympathy to her family and friends."

 

 

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11 hours ago, calbear said:

I just saw this article about the long covid studies...

A new study led by researchers at University College London is presenting the largest investigation into the symptoms of long COVID conducted to date. The research surveyed nearly 4,000 long COVID subjects spanning 56 countries.

Only 6.8 percent of the entire cohort had completely recovered and were symptom-free by the time the study was completed. The vast majority of long COVID patients surveyed (89.1 percent) reported exercise or stress as the primary trigger for symptom relapses, and almost half of the cohort were working less than they were pre-illness.


The article later says that they estimate there are 2 million long covid patients in the UK currently. It made me think about the implications of that across the world and the immense burden of this.

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/new-study-long-covid-symptoms-coronavirus/

Those are my two biggest triggers for my autoimmune diseases now that I got my allergies better under control. And they seem to be so for others in my autoimmune disease communities too.

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8 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

NSW recorded a 5th death, a 50 year old woman found dead at home.

New South Wales has recorded its fifth death from the COVID-19 Delta outbreak after a woman in her 50s was found dead inside her home in Green Valley in Sydney’s south west.

Key points:

  • The removalists travelled 300km from West Hoxton to Molong in the state's Central West
  • NSW Health said the woman had COVID-19 and was a close contact of another case
  • They have each been charged with breaching public health orders

The ABC understands the woman is the mother of twin removalists charged with breaching public health orders after travelling from Sydney to the Central West.

The brothers and another colleague received a call from NSW Health on Friday informing them that one had tested positive for coronavirus.

It is alleged the trio continued driving to Molong to finish the delivery.

A NSW Health spokesperson confirmed the woman's death and said she was a confirmed COVID-19 case and a close contact of another case. 

LIVE UPDATES: Read our blog for the latest news on the COVID-19 pandemic.

"This is the 61st death in NSW related to COVID-19 and the fifth of the current outbreak," the spokesperson said.

"NSW Health extends its sincere sympathy to her family and friends."

 

 

Are removalists what we call movers in the US?

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https://www.fox13news.com/news/new-florida-covid-19-cases-nearly-double-over-last-week-positivity-rate-jumps

 

Dr. Frederick Southwick, chief of the University of Florida medical school’s infectious disease division, said computer simulations show the delta strain will create "a marked surge in cases over the next three months."

"The delta variant grows faster in human cells and can spread to others particularly in closed spaces even when wearing a mask," he said. "The only effective way to be protected from the delta variant is to get vaccinated."

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Regarding outdoor spread in crowded areas like entry gates, it makes sense. One sneeze is enough to infect a few people, and if you are all crowded together, unmasked, and you get sneezed on....being outside won't mitigate that. 

I think regular old breathing is likely pretty safe outdoors, with a bit of space, but yeah, the minute you add a sneeze or cough....that changes. 

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