This is getting scary: Dorian now Cat 5

[ktgrok]

39 minutes ago, Thatboyofmine said:

Katie, are you and I sisters?  I swear our parents are the same people except mine are on Amelia.

It's like suddenly we are the adults and they are teenagers who are unable to see the danger in their choices! I mean seriously, when my mom said "my neighbors are staying too" I actually said, "and if your neighbors jumped off a cliff, would you?" Sigh. 

[ktgrok]

I'm going to have a stroke. Or send my parents a glitter bomb. 

When my mom said they were worried about the boat, fence, patio enclosure, etc I told her that staying wasn't going to keep those things safer, just make her less safe, since it isn't like Dad's going to go out in the middle of the storm and hold the fence up!

Well, an hour later I got a text message with a picture of my dad leaning, pretending to hold up the fence. Text said, "he thinks he can hold it a few more days" with a laughing emoji. Yeah....y'all are sooooo funny. ARGH!

I'm tempted to tell them that since their house is SO safe I'm going to bring my family and all the dogs and the cats and hang out with them until it is over. Grr.

[Lady Florida.]

2 hours ago, RootAnn said:

@Katy The stall is giving something in the north time to fall apart so that when Dorian starts moving again, it'll go north. I can't remember if it was a front or what that was keeping it from coming north, but the stall was good for everyone but the people it is over when it stalls.

It looks like it might have started its turn. The guy I'm following says it won't complete the turn until early tomorrow. They knew it would start turning tonight-just not sure when.

He says the earlier turn means it will go further east than last night's model suggested but cautioned that it'll be close enough that any wobble means Florida is not out of danger yet.

It's a high pressure system to the northeast. As it starts to fall apart it will allow the hurricane to be pulled north. There's another high pressure system northwest of Florida keeping the storm from being pulled towards us.

[Katy]

I thought it was over the great lakes, but I'm unconvinced that they are as accurate as they claim anyway.

[RootAnn]

"Hurricane force winds now extend up to 45 miles from the center (was only 25 miles at landfall yesterday)"

!!

[Lady Florida.]

2 hours ago, RootAnn said:

"Hurricane force winds now extend up to 45 miles from the center (was only 25 miles at landfall yesterday)"

!!

It's going to be about 60 miles off the coast. Some of us will get tropical storm winds but hurricane force winds are highly unlikely. Yes anything can happen,  but that "anything" would still be within known weather patterns. The two high pressure systems are keeping it from taking a sudden west turn. The current weather conditions aren't the same as they were for Charley or Andrew, which both took unexpected paths within the weather patterns at that time. 

We had a few stray outer bands come through tonight but our worst weather will be tomorrow into Wednesday.

Ds will officially be 22 at 12:54 am, a little over an hour from now. He'll get a hurricane for his birthday this year 

[ktgrok]

23 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

It's going to be about 60 miles off the coast. Some of us will get tropical storm winds but hurricane force winds are highly unlikely. Yes anything can happen,  but that "anything" would still be within known weather patterns. The two high pressure systems are keeping it from taking a sudden west turn. The current weather conditions aren't the same as they were for Charley or Andrew, which both took unexpected paths within the weather patterns at that time. 

We had a few stray outer bands come through tonight but our worst weather will be tomorrow into Wednesday.

Ds will officially be 22 at 12:54 am, a little over an hour from now. He'll get a hurricane for his birthday this year 

I'm much happier with the path they are now showing, as of the 11pm update. That's far enough off the coast that a bit of a wobble west won't impact the coast the way it would have with the earlier track that had it right near the coast. 

[ktgrok]

Wow, when I got up at 5am to check it was STILL stationary! Now it's moving NW at 1 mph. The poor bahamas...

[Familia]

I have a question.  Viewing the video of the 20 foot surge of water splashing the home windows of Michael Pintard, Minister of Ag in Bahamas...I can’t help but wonder how many hours even those solidly built homes can withstand that inundation.  Wouldn’t the foundation, despite its moorings, eventually lose its grounding?  

[PeterPan]

5 minutes ago, Familia said:

 Viewing the video of the 20 foot surge of water splashing the home windows of Michael Pintard, Minister of Ag in Bahamas

Wow, hadn't seen that, you're right it's astonishing!! And no, that's what has been blowing my mind, that so many of the houses on the island (just to look at the videos) are not appropriate for those kinds of storms. Someone was saying in comments that this guy clearly has a new house with hurricane rated everything. 

[Katy]

36 minutes ago, Familia said:

I have a question.  Viewing the video of the 20 foot surge of water splashing the home windows of Michael Pintard, Minister of Ag in Bahamas...I can’t help but wonder how many hours even those solidly built homes can withstand that inundation.  Wouldn’t the foundation, despite its moorings, eventually lose its grounding?  

 

Yes potentially, even those built on rock are going to have problems if the storm doesn't move soon.

[prairiewindmomma]

It’s heartbreaking.

[cintinative]

It's so awful. I can't imagine the horror the people of the Bahamas have been through. 

[TechWife]

20 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

I'm much happier with the path they are now showing, as of the 11pm update. That's far enough off the coast that a bit of a wobble west won't impact the coast the way it would have with the earlier track that had it right near the coast. 

 

NC barrier islands are being evacuated. Currently Cat 2, which is so much better than it was.

[Farrar]

It seems like most of the US is going to be spared the worst, though the slowness means there could be some big flooding in some places.

But the Bahamas. Oh my gosh. That's just devastating. Looking at the destruction and the satellite images... half of Grand Bahama is literally gone right now. People are rescuing each other the best they can, but... it's horrible. The CNN reporter said it was much worse than he anticipated.

[ktgrok]

Do we have any board members in the outer banks area? They are for sure still in the cross hairs, although thankfully it is much less strong now. Still the storm surge is concerning. 

But yes, the bahamas...it's heartbreaking. And makes me mad all over again about my parents insisting they didn't need to evacuate because they had a generator and food. No preparation is enough with 200 mph winds. They are blessed to have the lucky ability to evacuate. Thankfully not an issue now that the storm is staying off the coast, and has weakened so much, but man, people need to realize being able to evacuate from a dangerous area is a privilege, not an inconvenience. 

[Farrar]

Yeah. I get why people who are not on the coast don't leave. And why people stay through cat 1 hurricanes or through not taking the brunt... but people are so cocky. When you see the destruction in the Bahamas... I saw a thing where a man was rescued by a neighbor today. His wife drowned in front of him and he couldn't save her.

[ktgrok]

8 minutes ago, Farrar said:

Yeah. I get why people who are not on the coast don't leave. And why people stay through cat 1 hurricanes or through not taking the brunt... but people are so cocky. When you see the destruction in the Bahamas... I saw a thing where a man was rescued by a neighbor today. His wife drowned in front of him and he couldn't save her.

Exactly. I mean, my parents may get hurricane force winds tonight, but there is a HUGE difference between 85mph winds on the edge of a cat 2 storm and 200 mph winds from a direct hit by a category 5. Or even a direct hit from a Cat 4. Especially when on the water like they are. There is just nothing to weaken the storm before you get smacked by it. Staying now, when they won't get it that bad, I understand. Staying when you are inland, I understand, as long as you aren't in a mobile home or what not. But exactly - they get cocky. My mom kept saying "we have lists! We are prepared!" but you can't out prepare that kind of a storm. 

I saw that story too, and kept thinking of my Dad refusing to leave. Ugh. 

[Terabith]

The Bahamas look like they have been nuked.  It's horrific.  

[ktgrok]

The images are like seeing Andrew and Katrina at the same time - houses blown apart and covered in water. It's heartbreaking. 

[Mama Geek]

I am just checking in, we are about 30 miles from the beach as the crow flies and the eye is well north of here now.  We have had winds in the 30-35 mph range and the rain has stopped for now.  I heard there are only about 100 homes without power in my town which is a very small percentage.

[prairiewindmomma]

15 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Do we have any board members in the outer banks area? They are for sure still in the cross hairs, although thankfully it is much less strong now. Still the storm surge is concerning. 

But yes, the bahamas...it's heartbreaking. And makes me mad all over again about my parents insisting they didn't need to evacuate because they had a generator and food. No preparation is enough with 200 mph winds. They are blessed to have the lucky ability to evacuate. Thankfully not an issue now that the storm is staying off the coast, and has weakened so much, but man, people need to realize being able to evacuate from a dangerous area is a privilege, not an inconvenience. 

Yes, this. Cleaning up after Harvey—splintered wood fragments and concrete pads wiped clean—people tied themselves to things in Port Aransas so they wouldn’t blow away. I flat out get very angry when people could evacuate and don’t. 

I get that not everything requires evacuation, but serious storms do.

[Pawz4me]

We were on I-40 for a bit this morning, through central NC. Lots of power trucks were headed eastbound toward the coast.

[Farrar]

I heard the traffic on Monday anywhere along the 95 corridor or anywhere near the coast from Florida to NC was a nightmare. I'm sure it still is - people going back to Florida, people in NC deciding to leave, people dealing with the weather. Ugh.

Every new piece I read about the Bahamas is just wrenching.

[Pawz4me]

14 minutes ago, Farrar said:

I heard the traffic on Monday anywhere along the 95 corridor or anywhere near the coast from Florida to NC was a nightmare. I'm sure it still is - people going back to Florida, people in NC deciding to leave, people dealing with the weather. Ugh.

Every new piece I read about the Bahamas is just wrenching.

I saw some traffic cams from along the coast of NC and SC and yeah, it was bad. But it's always bad on Labor Day with people returning from long weekends at the beach, so it's hard to say how much (if any) it deviated from normal bad.

[Lady Florida.]

1 hour ago, Pawz4me said:

We were on I-40 for a bit this morning, through central NC. Lots of power trucks were headed eastbound toward the coast.

There were hundreds here in Central Florida stationed around the area ready to help. They're probably all heading north now. Dorian caused relatively few power outages here, and probably not more than local power companies can handle.

[PeterPan]

4 hours ago, Lady Florida. said:

Dorian caused relatively few power outages here, and probably not more than local power companies can handle.

I wondered how that had gone down. I had seen pictures with TONS of trucks. 

[Corraleno]

5 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

Yes, this. Cleaning up after Harvey—splintered wood fragments and concrete pads wiped clean—people tied themselves to things in Port Aransas so they wouldn’t blow away. I flat out get very angry when people could evacuate and don’t. 

I think too many people think of hurricanes as just really big thunderstorms with extra bad wind and rain, and they think the main issues will be a few trees down, no power for a few days, maybe some minor damage to the house. So they think as long as they have a generator and food and hurricane shutters, they can "ride it out." But when you're talking about a Cat 4 or 5 storm, you're talking about something that's more like a 100-mile-wide tornado, tsunami-level flooding, and torrential rain rolled into one. Hurricane shutters are irrelevant if your roof is gone. A generator is useless if it's under 6' of water and most of your walls are missing.

One meteorologist commented, in looking at the devastation in the Bahamas, that the winds were equivalent to an EF4 tornado (with gusts into EF5 territory), except instead of being a mile wide and lasting a few minutes, it covered entire islands and stayed there for 24 hours. Just a few months ago an EF4 tornado killed 23 people in Alabama, with winds of "only" 170 mph. The EF5 that hit Joplin Missouri in 2011, with winds of up to 200 mph,  killed 161 people and injured more than 1000. Who in their right mind would purposely choose to "ride out" an EF4/5 tornado that was heading straight for them if they had several days notice to get out of the path??? Dorian had sustained windspeeds of 185-200 mph, with gusts over 220. Add the possibility of up to 20' of storm surge and up to 30" of rain, on top of a 24-hr EF4-5 tornado, and you have a level of destruction that is beyond most people's imagination.  

 

[ktgrok]

Thank you, Corraleno. I'm going to use that explanation next time with my parents. 

[Ausmumof3]

Our windows blew out and the sound was phenomenal at 140kph

I can’t even wrap my head around the kind of wind speeds described.  

[ktgrok]

Am I the only one that didn't realize hurricanes could/did hit Canada?

[HS Mom in NC]

My niece, her husband, and toddler evacuated from Camp Legeune (Jacksonville, NC)  yesterday afternoon. They're staying with us, right outside Raleigh.  We wanted them to leave ASAP because we didn't want them on the roads in rain and we wanted them to have plenty of time because everyone was released from the base at the same time causing predictable traffic issues.  It's outrageous that the hurricane evacuation route from there is only one lane each way for part of it.  Even I-40 should be wider down to Wilmington.

[mumto2]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

Am I the only one that didn't realize hurricanes could/did hit Canada?

They actually frequently make their way over to the U.K. a week or so after they are done with North America.  Generally a pretty “gusty”rain storm by the time they arrive.  Last I looked Dorian is potentially going over there too.

[Katy]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

Am I the only one that didn't realize hurricanes could/did hit Canada?

 

Really?  Are they still a hurricane by the time they do? 

I didn't know that.  I thought they became a Nor'easter or something because of the cold ocean water.

[Junie]

35 minutes ago, Katy said:

 

Really?  Are they still a hurricane by the time they do? 

I didn't know that.  I thought they became a Nor'easter or something because of the cold ocean water.

This page describes the difference between a hurricane and a nor'easter.

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, Katy said:

 

Really?  Are they still a hurricane by the time they do? 

I didn't know that.  I thought they became a Nor'easter or something because of the cold ocean water.

It's predicted to still be a hurricane when it gets to Canada, last I checked (which was last night or this morning)

[TechWife]

If anyone wants to see what a hurricane looks like - CNN is doing a live feed of the camera at Frying Pan Tower, which is 34 miles off of the NC coast, IIRC. The camera is trained on the helipad and you can see a flag and the waves behind it.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/05/us/frying-pan-tower-dorian-trnd/index.html

[Colleen in NS]

On 9/5/2019 at 1:41 PM, Ktgrok said:

It's predicted to still be a hurricane when it gets to Canada, last I checked (which was last night or this morning)

 

Yep, it's here now, Category 1 or 2 in Nova Scotia.  Wish us luck as it makes landfall here.  We are smack in the middle of the path.  I was super stressed yesterday remembering what Hurricane Juan was like here in 2003.  Power has blinked, probably will lose it soon.

[73349]

Good luck, Colleen!

[Pen]

7 minutes ago, Colleen in NS said:

 

Yep, it's here now, Category 1 or 2 in Nova Scotia.  Wish us luck as it makes landfall here.  We are smack in the middle of the path.  I was super stressed yesterday remembering what Hurricane Juan was like here in 2003.  Power has blinked, probably will lose it soon.

 

Wishing you luck!

long ago I was camping in Northeast in what had been a Cat 5 when it was in Caribbean or thereabouts...   was only a 1 or 2 where I was, but it was still quite destructive.  

[Colleen in NS]

Thank you.  It's now upgraded to Cat 2.  I can't believe we still have power here.  (much of NS doesn't, and Halifax is already a mess - we're 20 min. outside)

[Zoo Keeper]

Praying you and your family stay safe, Colleen.

[ktgrok]

Praying for you!

[Scarlett]

On 9/4/2019 at 7:05 PM, Corraleno said:

I think too many people think of hurricanes as just really big thunderstorms with extra bad wind and rain, and they think the main issues will be a few trees down, no power for a few days, maybe some minor damage to the house. So they think as long as they have a generator and food and hurricane shutters, they can "ride it out." But when you're talking about a Cat 4 or 5 storm, you're talking about something that's more like a 100-mile-wide tornado, tsunami-level flooding, and torrential rain rolled into one. Hurricane shutters are irrelevant if your roof is gone. A generator is useless if it's under 6' of water and most of your walls are missing.

One meteorologist commented, in looking at the devastation in the Bahamas, that the winds were equivalent to an EF4 tornado (with gusts into EF5 territory), except instead of being a mile wide and lasting a few minutes, it covered entire islands and stayed there for 24 hours. Just a few months ago an EF4 tornado killed 23 people in Alabama, with winds of "only" 170 mph. The EF5 that hit Joplin Missouri in 2011, with winds of up to 200 mph,  killed 161 people and injured more than 1000. Who in their right mind would purposely choose to "ride out" an EF4/5 tornado that was heading straight for them if they had several days notice to get out of the path??? Dorian had sustained windspeeds of 185-200 mph, with gusts over 220. Add the possibility of up to 20' of storm surge and up to 30" of rain, on top of a 24-hr EF4-5 tornado, and you have a level of destruction that is beyond most people's imagination.  

 

Being in the land of tornadoes my entire life....I completely agree.  I cant imagine knowing DAYS ahead of time that a tornado is going to hit and not evacuate.  With tornadoes you sometimes have less than a minute to seek shelter.  You learn how to listen for the roar and you live with the fact that one could still drop down on top of your house with no warning.  

 

[Colleen in NS]

We're safe.  Whole province was hit pretty hard, as well as PEI and NB and now moving to Nfld.  Power out all over the province.  I'm at one place that has power, to access wifi.  Yes, hurricanes definitely come to Maritime Canada, with regularity!!!!!  Most of the time, it's post-tropical by the time it gets here, but not this time.

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, Colleen in NS said:

We're safe.  Whole province was hit pretty hard, as well as PEI and NB and now moving to Nfld.  Power out all over the province.  I'm at one place that has power, to access wifi.  Yes, hurricanes definitely come to Maritime Canada, with regularity!!!!!  Most of the time, it's post-tropical by the time it gets here, but not this time.

so glad you are safe!

And yes, I knew the 'remnants" for lack of a better term went your way, as post tropical storms. But I had no idea they could stay that strong without the warm water they feed on! And this one getting back up to a Category 2!! 

Scary stuff. Hugs to everyone in your area!