This is getting scary: Dorian now Cat 5

[Katy]

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hurricane-dorian/hurricane-dorian-now-category-4-packing-winds-of?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=snd&utm_content=wjxt4&fbclid=IwAR1EDRsEeh6_FQgSDEPwUconJKx57TMk-qntETjIELRDCx8MEmagQ_3cK20

Stay safe everyone!

Edited September 1, 2019 by Katy

[ktgrok]

5 minutes ago, Æthelthryth the Texan said:

Man. And it's slow too. That's a bad combo. Ugh, my heart goes out to you guys. And the waiting.....that's almost just as bad. The sitting and waiting for all hell to break loose. But cat 4? I'd leave I think. 

If we were on the coast, we'd leave. My parents had better the heck leave. 

[Tree Frog]

This was shared on FB about prepping for a hurricane. I've never been in one, so can't speak to it personally. However, my friend who lives in the FL panhandle and survived Ivan says it's pretty accurate. There are additional suggestions in the comments. One person mentions the what3words app. Is anyone familiar with it? Apparently it's used by first responders when the normal landmarks have disappeared.

 

[PeterPan]

Denis Phillips, the weatherman in Tampa, posts his updates on FB. He updated at 11pm and the storm is tracking slightly east. He's still saying it's bad, but the more it curves up and east, the better.

[TravelingChris]

We are at a state park in northeast Georgia and my youngest is in Atlanta for DragonCon.  She left Thursday and we were even talking about in Wednesday evening about how all three of us need to keep an eye on Dorian this Labor Day weekend because it could speed up and grow bigger.  It did get much bigger.  We aren't in the cones yet but who knows by Sat evening. And or doesn't have to be s hurricane for any of us to cut short our mini vacations. Just lots of rain predicted or Tornado forecasts starting to happen.  As a child, I personally saw his horrific hurricanes or remnants are in the mountains.  Cars and houses floating by the state park where my family had rented a cabin. I think the river was the Jsmes but I may be mistaken.

39 minutes ago, wilrunner said:

This was shared on FB about prepping for a hurricane. I've never been in one, so can't speak to it personally. However, my friend who lives in the FL panhandle and survived Ivan says it's pretty accurate. There are additional suggestions in the comments. One person mentions the what3words app. Is anyone familiar with it? Apparently it's used by first responders when the normal landmarks have disappeared.

 

Also thank you so much for posting this.  It is super helpful in many ways for planning g for tornados 

Finally but most importantly many prayers and good luck wishes to all in the path of this monster.

[ktgrok]

That list is pretty accurate in my experience. 

Also, if you have water damage inside, rip it out IMMEDIATELY. Cut out the drywall up above where the water level got so the wood behind can dry. 

We took photos of our insurance policies and emailed them to ourselves, also could email to a friend out of harms way. 

And do NOT fill bathtubs if you have toddlers. 

[DawnM]

Keeping an eye on it too.   My son goes back to college next week in the area.

[DawnM]

Just got word.  My son was supposed to start Fall quarter on Mon, Sept. 9th, but it will now be delayed until at least Wed, Sept 11th.

Move in day has moved from Sat/Sun to Mon/Tue.  

They said to stay tuned as that could change yet again, depending.

[RootAnn]

Cat 5!

The video I saw looked like tornado level damage. 

[Katy]

39 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

Cat 5!

The video I saw looked like tornado level damage. 

 

Changing the thread title

[mommyoffive]

Oh how scary.  Stay safe everyone.  Can we make this the official check in if you live in the area thread? 

[Aura]

I've been rolling my eyes at the "monster" and "catastrophic" labels for the past few days. I was thinking the first storm of the year and they're already going crazy, no wonder people start to ignore things ..but then it went to cat 4 ...now a cat 5! and it's the "2nd strongest Atlantic hurricane!" geesh! I guess they really weren't exaggerating! Stay safe everyone!

[Pen]

There doesn’t seem to be much news from Bahamas since it made landfall there.  I fear it may be very bad situation.

[Pawz4me]

5 minutes ago, Pen said:

There doesn’t seem to be much news from Bahamas since it made landfall there.  I fear it may be very bad situation.

One reporter said it may be Wednesday or even later before we hear much from them again, since Dorian is moving so slowly. They're going to get pounded for an extended period of time. 

[cintinative]

Where are you all following the hurricane coverage? I am not sure which is the best site.

My brother's family boarded up their house and drove to the west coast (of FL). The last I knew (??) it was going to be a tropical storm when it hit the east coast but that was before they upgraded it to a Category 5. 

[ktgrok]

17 minutes ago, cintinative said:

Where are you all following the hurricane coverage? I am not sure which is the best site.

My brother's family boarded up their house and drove to the west coast (of FL). The last I knew (??) it was going to be a tropical storm when it hit the east coast but that was before they upgraded it to a Category 5. 

I use Mike's Weather Page a lot. You can look at the info directly here: https://spaghettimodels.com

Or he has a facebook page here: https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/

Or look at a local to them PBS station - mine is WUCF which covers central florida. https://www.wucf.org/community/storm-center/

[PeterPan]

30 minutes ago, cintinative said:

Where are you all following the hurricane coverage?

Denis Phillips on FB. He's the weatherman from Tampa, and he's as non-flamboyant, just tell it like it is, as you can get.

[AmandaVT]

Cranky Weather guy is a great follow on twitter for storms: https://twitter.com/crankywxguy

[cintinative]

My brother is concerned that if the hurricane doesn't turn like they are projecting, there will be widespread damage. I don't know how likely that is. I don't have a good weather background. But given that it is very slow moving, are you hearing anyone saying that it could change?

[Corraleno]

Some of the video coming out of the Bahamas is heartbreaking. The mom sobbing over and over "please pray for us, pray for me and my baby, please pray for us, please pray for us..." had me in tears. Houses are underwater, boats are on roofs, just horrific. 😥

[ktgrok]

14 minutes ago, cintinative said:

My brother is concerned that if the hurricane doesn't turn like they are projecting, there will be widespread damage. I don't know how likely that is. I don't have a good weather background. But given that it is very slow moving, are you hearing anyone saying that it could change?

Absolutely it could change. Anyone in the white cone is in the range of the storm. Matthew changed path I think less than an hour before hitting land, Irma went weird, etc etc. There is no way to know where it will hit for sure until it does and is gone. 

[ktgrok]

15 minutes ago, cintinative said:

My brother is concerned that if the hurricane doesn't turn like they are projecting, there will be widespread damage. I don't know how likely that is. I don't have a good weather background. But given that it is very slow moving, are you hearing anyone saying that it could change?

What part of Florida is your brother's house in? A significant part of the coast is still in the white "cone" area. 

[cintinative]

2 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

What part of Florida is your brother's house in? A significant part of the coast is still in the white "cone" area. 

 

 

Coral Springs, it's more inland, but its between Boca Raton and Pompano Beach

[ktgrok]

1 minute ago, cintinative said:

 

Coral Springs, it's more inland, but its between Boca Raton and Pompano Beach

I think that is more in the area that has the Tropical Storm warning, and not in the actual cone, maybe right on the edge. 

[teachermom2834]

28 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

Denis Phillips on FB. He's the weatherman from Tampa, and he's as non-flamboyant, just tell it like it is, as you can get.

I followed Denis on FB after it was recommended upthread. He is really good. He got me through this storm as I was watching to see what my college kid on the west coast of FL would be in for. There is another guy I had been following from Tampa Bay (Paul Dellegatto) who had virtually the same message and take as Denis. Denis just posts much more frequently and in more detail. The two of them together were very reassuring. While Tampa was still in the cone they were urging preparation but both said it would likely take the turn it did while the national coverage was so very dire it seemed guaranteed to hit hard. If I had been just watching Weather Channel and national news coverage I would have been much more panicked. 

I'm 100% for being prepared for the worst but panic doesn't help.

It is a really scary storm and those pics form the Bahamas are heartbreaking.

[PeterPan]

12 minutes ago, cintinative said:

 

Coral Springs, it's more inland, but its between Boca Raton and Pompano Beach

I dear, I can see why you're worried or at least wanting accurate information! Like Teachermom, I watched just a minute of the national coverage and couldn't believe how scary it was. DP will tell you straight, and right now he's saying their best track is that it's turning. But connected, get the info, wait it out. I'm sure your brother will have local authorities tell him what to do and a plan. It's definitely scary having such a huge, huge storm so close, but right now they just have to wait.

[ktgrok]

Problem is that watching the local west coast news won't give her necessarily the info she needs for her brother on the east coast. West coast may slow down coverage, etc, and won't have local phone numbers/resources listed, etc. 

[ktgrok]

Oh and honestly? I am a native and I don't watch ANY "coverage". I just look at the maps, projections, etc. I use mike's weather page that I linked earlier and look at the stuff myself. No need for the filter of newscasters blabbing about it over and over. 

[prairiewindmomma]

My family in the white cone isn’t evacuating and easily could. 🙄

[PeterPan]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

the info she needs for her brother on the east coast.

Well mercy, I was assuming her brother was connecting with his local authorities and weather to know what is specific to his area. I just assumed she wanted to know overall what was happening. 

[ktgrok]

56 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

My family in the white cone isn’t evacuating and easily could. 🙄

Not everyone in the cone should evacuate. Most should not, in fact. Those in unstable houses, those on the coast, those in low lying areas, etc should evacuate. Those not in those areas should probably stay put, at least if they are a bit inland. 

My parents are on a barrier island and as of now are not evacuating. I'm just trying not to think about it. 

[RootAnn]

3 hours ago, cintinative said:

My brother is concerned that if the hurricane doesn't turn like they are projecting, there will be widespread damage. I don't know how likely that is. I don't have a good weather background. But given that it is very slow moving, are you hearing anyone saying that it could change?

The people who know say that it will turn. It is just a matter of when.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but this college kid who blogs & tweets for weather.us has taught me a lot about how some of the hurricane forecasting is done.

[ChrisB]

My nephew and his electrical truck crew arrived (from OH) in the Daytona area yesterday and then moved to Vero Beach today as a staging area for the big electrical recovery efforts after the storm.  The videos he's sending to the family showing the sheer number of trucks there to set things back to right is truly amazing--truly humbling seeing the enormous efforts involved.

Edited September 2, 2019 by ChrisB

[Tanaqui]

The trouble with not evacuating is that if you don't do it when you can you may end up in a situation where it's no longer safe to evacuate. Lots of people panic at this point and attempt to flee, often with tragic results.

[Katy]

40 minutes ago, Thatboyofmine said:

My parents are saying now they’ll decide in the morning.  My daddy wants to stay.   They’ll do their hurricane shutters and such in the a.m. Their neighbors are leaving but my mom’s BFF down the road is staying and so are her neighbors.  The problem is that my parents’ house is covered by huge, old oak trees, actually their entire neighborhood.    Her bff’s house and that neighborhood have much smaller trees.   Iow, if tree limbs fall, no one can really get to them.   Hopefully it’ll swing out east.   

 

If they stay put and something goes wrong, even something unrelated to the storm like a heart attack, they'll be out of luck until well after the storm is over whether there are trees in the road or not.  Florida does not provide emergency response when there are sustained winds over 45 mph.  Please remind your parents that stuff can be replaced by insurance.  Lives cannot.

[ktgrok]

 

Good info in this. Just sent it to my parents...REALLY hoping we have a better idea of the path tomorrow. I'm far enough inland I'm going to be fine no matter what it does, but if it hits the coast they are on a canal, on a barrier island. Sigh. 

[Carrie12345]

My son finally evacuated, so my specific anxiety can now transition into general anxiety. Sigh.

I know the drama reporting is awful, but I’m sort of impressed with the overall “we don’t know” “forecasts”. I don’t personally recall a storm in which every report didn’t stress the “prediction” and downplay the wider possibilities. I’m glad everyone is being urged to be prepared.  Of course, that could be my bias after being surprised by Sandy while living in a non-coastal state!  Just about anything is possible.

@Thatboyofmine  I do hope they change their minds.  If it helps, insurance has covered my freezer losses twice. No questions.  (Well, other than the standard forms!)

[Pawz4me]

Our local forecaster here in inland NC says that Dorian has pretty much stalled over Grand Bahama Island. That means that the eye wall may re-form and that the storm may wobble. Even a little wobble can mean a shift in the storm's path that could be significant (for better or worse).

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for the entire SC coast. 

Edited September 2, 2019 by Pawz4me

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

My son finally evacuated, so my specific anxiety can now transition into general anxiety. Sigh.

I know the drama reporting is awful, but I’m sort of impressed with the overall “we don’t know” “forecasts”. I don’t personally recall a storm in which every report didn’t stress the “prediction” and downplay the wider possibilities. I’m glad everyone is being urged to be prepared.  Of course, that could be my bias after being surprised by Sandy while living in a non-coastal state!  Just about anything is possible.

@Thatboyofmine  I do hope they change their minds.  If it helps, insurance has covered my freezer losses twice. No questions.  (Well, other than the standard forms!)

Oh, I'm so so so glad he evacuated! Such a relief. As of last night, my parents were at best undecided. I will be keeping busy today and trying not to freak the heck out. I just cannot fathom it. I did message my father and tell him that I know he hates leaving but Mom and the dog won't leave without him, and I know he will do anything to protect them. And reminded him that my mom tends to trip/fall and break things, and if she trips over something in the dark or slips on wet ground and falls there will be no ambulance service for who knows how long, etc. He said he hears me, but made no promises. Old stubborn man is driving me crazy. And honestly, I DO trust him on his own to ride out the storm. He's tough and a native and resourceful. I do not trust my mother, who has anxiety, and osteoporosis, to not get hurt. I also don't quite trust that he won't see something happening to his boat or something dumb and run out there to try to fix it.

The only good news is that the national hurricane website has storm surge/flooding predictions and although they are on a canal they are predicting up to 3 ft of surge, and their house is high enough that they can easily ride that out. They are a good 7 feet above the canal I think. And the house itself is concrete block, and built to last. And they have shutters and they are already up. But still...pray they leave. 

1 hour ago, Pawz4me said:

Our local forecaster here in inland NC says that Dorian has pretty much stalled over Grand Bahama Island. That means that the eye wall may re-form and that the storm may wobble. Even a little wobble can mean a shift in the storm's path that could be significant (for better or worse).

Mandatory evacuations have been ordered for the entire SC coast. 

Yeah. I do NOT like this storm. I do NOT panic over hurricanes. Im a native. I've been through hurricanes in Palm Beach, the treasure coast, and even in Tallahassee as a student. But this storm is STRONG. So strong. And I don't like how it is just sitting there. I don't trust it. And the track they have it on is close enough to the coast to do damage even if it doesn't change, but I don't trust it not to change. They wobble. They do weird things. And there is no room for error given the forecasted track.

Now, it just as likely could go even further away from the coast, and that would be great, but man...this one is scary, and slow and I hate that. 

Also, - 200 mph winds (gusts) and 165mp sustained winds is just mind-blowing. 

Even as far inland as we are my husband is already predicting he will be at the local fence company buying new fencing material after it passes. We lose a section of fence every storm. At least now we are down to only one old section left, lol. 

[ktgrok]

Oh, and we are all boarded up. Only one other house is on the street so far. We considered waiting but DH didn't want to be out in winds and rain installing them like he was last time, and he was making room in the garage for my van and it was easier to do that if he just took them out of the garage, lol. 

[PeterPan]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

Yeah. I do NOT like this storm. I do NOT panic over hurricanes. Im a native. I've been through hurricanes in Palm Beach, the treasure coast, and even in Tallahassee as a student. But this storm is STRONG. So strong. And I don't like how it is just sitting there. I don't trust it. And the track they have it on is close enough to the coast to do damage even if it doesn't change, but I don't trust it not to change. They wobble. They do weird things. And there is no room for error given the forecasted track.

Yup. People here in the Midwest with property on the coast are really tense. Nobody REALLY knows what's going to happen with the wobbling and slow down.

[Lady Florida.]

18 hours ago, cintinative said:

My brother is concerned that if the hurricane doesn't turn like they are projecting, there will be widespread damage. I don't know how likely that is. I don't have a good weather background. But given that it is very slow moving, are you hearing anyone saying that it could change?

Slow moving is good for the mainland U.S. but obviously bad for the Bahamas where it's just sitting there slamming them. The reason slow is good for us is that there was a high pressure system moving it towards Florida. Hurricanes will always try to track north, towards the pole but the system was preventing it from doing that. The slower the hurricane moves, the more time it gives for the high pressure system to fall apart, and then there's nothing to prevent it from going north-northeast out into the water or just skirting the coastline. 

18 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Absolutely it could change. Anyone in the white cone is in the range of the storm. Matthew changed path I think less than an hour before hitting land, Irma went weird, etc etc. There is no way to know where it will hit for sure until it does and is gone. 

One of the models had Matthew making landfall in my county as you probably remember. Then it took that last minute wobble to the east and hit north of me. 

As of the 11 am update we're still in the cone but it's most likely going to stay offshore. We'll get tropical storm force winds and maybe some hurricane force gusts. We're boarded up and ready. I acquired two spare young adults (friends of ds22) and their service dogs. The cats aren't thrilled about the dogs, but we're all here for the duration. 

[Scarlett]

I think it is now cat 4. So devastating to the Bahamas. 😞

[Lady Florida.]

15 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

 

My parents are on a barrier island and as of now are not evacuating. I'm just trying not to think about it. 

I feel your pain. My brother in Cape Canaveral has decided not to evacuate. My adult niece, his only child. is beside herself and asked me to try and convince him to leave. They're determined to ride it out after evacuating in the past when they didn't need to. 

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, Lady Florida. said:

I feel your pain. My brother in Cape Canaveral has decided not to evacuate. My adult niece, his only child. is beside herself and asked me to try and convince him to leave. They're determined to ride it out after evacuating in the past when they didn't need to. 

I cannot for the life of me understand that logic. Because the last one didn't hit you doesn't mean this one can't. But my dad says the same thing. 

[Katy]

I've always heard that when they stall they usually change directions afterwards, making a Florida hit more likely at this point.

[ktgrok]

well, we wanted it to change directions...it had been going due west, and we want it to go more north, so hopefully it does. It is starting to - last I checked it was WNW at 1 mph. 

[ktgrok]

And hell, my parents are saying they are going to stay. Because hey, they have shutters and some of their neighbors are staying, so it's fine. UGH. For crying out loud, you chose to live in what is most of the time utter paradise. The price for that is leaving every few years for a day or so. SUCK IT UP! I GET that my dad is an introvert (borderline Aspie) and doesn't want to be in my sister's house, kids, etc. And that he wants to keep an eye on his stuff. I GET IT. It SUCKS. But be a grown up and do the right thing. ARGH!!!!!!

Oh and now my sister is saying that "they have a generator and shutters, and have done this before, trust them to know what they are doing". Um, no, they have NOT been smacked with a direct hit with a major hurricane while living in an evacuation zone /barrier island (techincially Merritt Island is a peninsula, but really, it's a barrier island for these purposes). They have been MISSED. And if they get MISSED again they will be fine, yes. But if they are hit directly, they may not be fine. And it is STUPID to stay. And I don't get it. UGH. 

[RootAnn]

@Katy The stall is giving something in the north time to fall apart so that when Dorian starts moving again, it'll go north. I can't remember if it was a front or what that was keeping it from coming north, but the stall was good for everyone but the people it is over when it stalls.

It looks like it might have started its turn. The guy I'm following says it won't complete the turn until early tomorrow. They knew it would start turning tonight-just not sure when.

He says the earlier turn means it will go further east than last night's model suggested but cautioned that it'll be close enough that any wobble means Florida is not out of danger yet.

[prairiewindmomma]

My extended family saw reason and have gone to Sarasota. I am sorry your family is being stubborn, Katy. I worry less about wind than storm surge and flooding.