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prairiewindmomma
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5 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

See if the following link gets you there (I'm a member, so I'm not sure if you'll see the same thing I see) --

https://forums.welltrainedmind.com/clubs/267-wtm-politics/

 

 

1 minute ago, Pam in CT said:

So I'm already in, but I believe for anyone already not-in there's a button on the far right of the header that says something like "join this club".  If you can't find it, send @Amira a message (she's on a different time zone so may take a while to get back to you).

Thank you!  I think I got it. 

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13 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

We also didn't when we had other mysterious events like "power outages' during a previous tense time with them and also at that time I believe we had some large outages among some large websites too

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13 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

My DH is saying that China is backing Russia and that there is bad news for Taiwan coming up in the near future according to the chatter on his social media and his WhatsApp groups discussing this amongst his friends. Is there any indications of this or is it mere speculation at this point? Sorry, I have not been following this thread closely if this has already been discussed before.

I’ve heard similar murmurings. They did their “military exercises” near Taiwan the first day of the invasion. Chilling timing. 

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re China

6 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

My DH is saying that China is backing Russia and that there is bad news for Taiwan coming up in the near future according to the chatter on his social media and his WhatsApp groups discussing this amongst his friends. Is there any indications of this or is it mere speculation at this point? Sorry, I have not been following this thread closely if this has already been discussed before.

Putin spent several days in China during the Olympics, and made joint appearance with Xi. It's *hard to imagine* he would have taken this step without a nod that China would let it lie. China has its own reasons, including Taiwan, to enable imperial dictators indulge their imperialist ambitions, KWIM?

Biden was asked repeatedly by reporters at his press appearance yesterday if China would join in sanctions, and he said explicitly something to the effect of "I'm not prepared to answer that question at this point."

Earlier today the NYT reported

Quote

U.S. Officials Repeatedly Urged China to Help Avert War in Ukraine

Americans presented Chinese officials with intelligence on Russia’s troop buildup in hopes that President Xi Jinping would step in, but were repeatedly rebuffed.

Over three months, senior Biden administration officials held half a dozen urgent meetings with top Chinese officials in which the Americans presented intelligence showing Russia’s troop buildup around Ukraine and beseeched the Chinese to tell Russia not to invade, according to U.S. officials.

Each time, the Chinese officials, including the foreign minister and the ambassador to the United States, rebuffed the Americans, saying they did not think an invasion was in the works. After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, the officials said....

I'm not familiar with the byline reporter.  The bolded is a serious intelligence matter; and also the sort of thing we've learned over the last six years that a KGB-trained psyop officer might falsely plant with a green reporter for various reasons. The article was not corroborated by other sources, and later today

which is probably about as good as we should expect.

So, mixed data, I'd say.

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17 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

My DH is saying that China is backing Russia and that there is bad news for Taiwan coming up in the near future according to the chatter on his social media and his WhatsApp groups discussing this amongst his friends. Is there any indications of this or is it mere speculation at this point? Sorry, I have not been following this thread closely if this has already been discussed before.

Speculation based on China's statements about reunification.  There is zero chance of a move in near term as China still has limited amphibious assault capabilities and there has been no evidence of them staging what they do have.  The analysts I have followed the most over the years have said that this could change by 2025.  

China still has dreams of a "peaceful" reunification which they think could be accomplished by intimidation tactics.  

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31 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

re what cyber attacks could mean

Yeah, I do NOT feel like the American public has been adequately briefed on What To Expect if (when?) Putin Launches Cyberattacks Against Us.

It's not going to go over well, is the thing. 

I saw the possibility of cyberattacks discussed in a European (non-English speaking) news show yesterday. I wish our government would do more prepare us for the possibility and suggest what we could do to prepare, if anything (at least the coldest days of winter are behind us soon). Though considering their covid strategy, it appears the main goal is to placate the public and celebrate victory, to then declare after the fact that nobody could have predicted ... . 

It looks like China abstained in a UN resolution to condemn the invasion of Ukraine (which was of course blocked by Russia). 11 in favor, 3 abstentions, 1 against, according to CNN

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3 hours ago, frogger said:

My bubble is crazy. It is very lonely. Just got a forwarded email from my step dad on how not to trust the main stream fake news and that this is all Nato's fault. It is a struggle to know how to respond as their perspective is I'm brainwashed. It is important for me to remember that my bubble does not properly portray America. 

Bubbles really skew our perspective and I try to remember that. 

I get it.  I am so sorry that you have such nuts in your bubble.  And considering that people have such people on Facebook and that is what they are getting posts about, I can understand why some never want Facebook or want to quit. 

I would be unfriending anyone blaming NATO --of course, my Facebook friends tend to be a lot of people who were military. military spouses, or military  kids. and a number of my friends became friends when we were at NATO military headquarters.  And many of the rest of them are defense workers or retired defense workers.    Which is why either no one is posting such garbage or Facebook is not showing it to me.

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2 minutes ago, Mom_to3 said:

I saw the possibility of cyberattacks discussed in a European (non-English speaking) news show yesterday. I wish our government would do more prepare us for the possibility and suggest what we could do to prepare, 

What ways do you think people could prepare?  Extra food, cash water?  Something else? 

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3 minutes ago, thewellerman said:

What ways do you think people could prepare?  Extra food, cash water?  Something else? 

Extra cash, definitely.  I specifically joined a local credit union just because I know the last time we had a ten day power outage (a few months before we moved here when the April 2011 tornados happened), that credit union was able to help people versus my tornal main bank is in Texas.

We also have extra water here for two main reasons- our water is hard so we don't drink tap and we get tornados here.  We already have extra food.  This weekend is tax free storm prep weekend and we will be buying more things like we need more batteries.

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9 minutes ago, Mom_to3 said:

I saw the possibility of cyberattacks discussed in a European (non-English speaking) news show yesterday. I wish our government would do more prepare us for the possibility and suggest what we could do to prepare, if anything (at least the coldest days of winter are behind us soon). Though considering their covid strategy, it appears the main goal is to placate the public and celebrate victory, to then declare after the fact that nobody could have predicted ... . 

It looks like China abstained in a UN resolution to condemn the invasion of Ukraine (which was of course blocked by Russia). 11 in favor, 3 abstentions, 1 against, according to CNN

China actually abstaining was better than what some thought they may do earlier in this cycle.

China is out for China and while they may use the sanctions on Russia to their advantage (cheap gas/wheat), they will not be hitching their horse to the Russian wagon any time soon.

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3 hours ago, BusyMom5 said:

So I just went to Fox News dot com and scrolled the headlines.  I'm not seeing anything pro-Russia or supporting Putin.  I haven't read the articles,  and I'm not denying TC said ridiculous stuff- he's a moron, but I don't think there is a sizeable portion of Republicans who support Putin or Russia.  I live in a very red area, lots of R friends,  and I don't know any who support him.  The only post on FB I've scene is concerning gun control and that this is why citizens need guns.  The others are prayers for Ukraine, troops, calls for peace.

As for calling Purina a genius- I think he is very dangerous genius.  He's vindictive,  a long-term planner, and I think this is just the beginning of his evil plan to remake the USSR.  I hope I am wrong!!!!

I read the rest of the dialogue.  He made some statements that indicated he felt the Ukranian government also had some issues.  Note, that is what he said, not me, lol.  Overall, I am disappointed.  If Ukraine is indeed a free country, Europe and the US are standing by, watching this all unfold.  There, I said it. We are not willing to stand up for humanity.  It's all about the delicate oil and gas industry, which we might be able to help with, but nope. Nobody knows if Putin just wants Ukraine or if he will go forward with more.  I don't want to be nuked by Putin, but we go into the most God-forsaken places with troops yet we can't help people who supposedly share our values in more than just a symbolic way?  I am just rambling out my feelings, not trying to get into an education on NATO, agreements, etc.  

 

Edited by Ting Tang
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1 hour ago, Pam in CT said:

re urgent need to stop a cornered dangerous man

I just don't know what that "sane thing" looks like.

God knows I'd join you in a fervent prayer of thanks if he dropped dead of a stroke later this evening.

But I don't see any GOOD options that Biden as an individual, or NATO as a collective with divergent sovereign interests, have. Only a menu of lousy options, every one of which leaves Putin with at least one more round of murderous mayhem.

I never said I had any Good ideas. Only inevitable ones. NATO can choose to risk millions dead in a global war from hell - or take this lunatic out.  I wouldn’t want the USA to go solo. But NATO needs to have USA backing.

 

4 minutes ago, thewellerman said:

What ways do you think people could prepare?  Extra food, cash water?  Something else? 

I second that question. The truth is that short of living off the grid - there’s not much individuals can do. But there are many things corporations and government can do.  Most people who can afford to set aside for the things you mention usually do just because it’s cheaper to buy in bulk and convenient to keep things available. Those who can’t - can’t. 

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2 minutes ago, Murphy101 said:

I never said I had any Good ideas. Only inevitable ones. NATO can choose to risk millions dead in a global war from hell - or take this lunatic out.  I wouldn’t want the USA to go solo. But NATO needs to have USA backing.

 

I second that question. The truth is that short of living off the grid - there’s not much individuals can do. But there are many things corporations and government can do.  Most people who can afford to set aside for the things you mention usually do just because it’s cheaper to buy in bulk and convenient to keep things available. Those who can’t - can’t. 

There are mostly lousy options.  😞  But let's see, Putin got Crimea and now likely Ukraine. When will he be satisfied?   It might not happen right away, but he's allowed, so it may continue.  And he still makes money off the higher priced oil. 

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44 minutes ago, AnotherNewName said:

Speculation based on China's statements about reunification.  There is zero chance of a move in near term as China still has limited amphibious assault capabilities and there has been no evidence of them staging what they do have.  The analysts I have followed the most over the years have said that this could change by 2025.  

China still has dreams of a "peaceful" reunification which they think could be accomplished by intimidation tactics.  

There is a strong quid pro quo relationship between Putin and Xi. Which is what the speculation that I am hearing is alluding to. So, there is an expectation that Xi will try to work on his reunification plans on the heels of the Ukraine aggression because Putin will not object and when there is chaos, why not pile on more chaos to get away with it?

I truly hope that you are right because my Taiwanese friends are very distressed right now worrying about what's coming next.

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40 minutes ago, Ting Tang said:

I read the rest of the dialogue.  He made some statements that indicated he felt the Ukranian government also had some issues.  Note, that is what he said, not me, lol.  Overall, I am disappointed.  If Ukraine is indeed a free country, Europe and the US are standing by, watching this all unfold.  There, I said it. We are not willing to stand up for humanity.  It's all about the delicate oil and gas industry, which we might be able to help with, but nope. Nobody knows if Putin just wants Ukraine or if he will go forward with more.  I don't want to be nuked by Putin, but we go into the most God-forsaken places with troops yet we can't help people who supposedly share our values in more than just a symbolic way?  I am just rambling out my feelings, not trying to get into an education on NATO, agreements, etc.  

 

We weren't even willing to stand up for humanity when only a small percentage of our own population was at risk from dying (from covid) and the "standing up" entailed minor restrictions and inconveniences for most of us. What makes you think that we could or should risk almost certain nuclear war that could annihilate most of us, of any age, either immediately, or later on via cancers etc, to prevent a non-NATO country from being taken over by another? Of course this is awful, but what can NATO really do here? I am praying that Russia will collapse from within (from those more knowledgeable, is there any reasonable hope of that happening?  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/prominent-russians-join-protests-against-ukraine-war-amid-1800-arrests-putin )

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31 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

There is a strong quid pro quo relationship between Putin and Xi. Which is what the speculation that I am hearing is alluding to. So, there is an expectation that Xi will try to work on his reunification plans on the heels of the Ukraine aggression because Putin will not object and when there is chaos, why not pile on more chaos to get away with it?

I truly hope that you are right because my Taiwanese friends are very distressed right now worrying about what's coming next.

I imagine Taiwan is weighing arming itself with nuclear weapons ASAP (and for them ASAP is months, not years).

Here's a good explanation from an Australian source:

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/would-a-nuclear-armed-taiwan-deter-china/

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Just now, Mom_to3 said:

We weren't even willing to stand up for humanity when only a small percentage of our own population was at risk from dying (from covid) and the "standing up" entailed minor restrictions and inconveniences for most of us. What makes you think that we could or should risk almost certain nuclear war that could annihilate most of us, of any age, either immediately, or later on via cancers etc, to prevent a non-NATO country from being taken over by another? Of course this is awful, but what can NATO really do here? I am praying that Russia will collapse from within (from those more knowledgeable, is there any reasonable hope of that happening?  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/prominent-russians-join-protests-against-ukraine-war-amid-1800-arrests-putin )

I know.  It is just hard to watch the people suffer.  Putin is a modern day Hitler.  I understand Ukraine perhaps needed to take care of its own political corruption in order to join NATO, but I do worry if Putin continues on...  It sure would be nice if this was the beginning of his end rather than the beginning.  I cannot imagine what Ukranians are feeling tonight.  😞 

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re UN resolution

1 hour ago, Mom_to3 said:

...It looks like China abstained in a UN resolution to condemn the invasion of Ukraine (which was of course blocked by Russia). 11 in favor, 3 abstentions, 1 against, according to CNN

Right. And under the circumstances that's about as good as could reasonably be hoped for. Russia is effectively isolated.

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3 hours ago, Pam in CT said:

re Putin's presentation as unhinged

It is certainly possible. He came of age in the Soviet KGB; his personal expertise is psychological operations and misinformation.  

Where did you find this info? I didn't find it in a quick search. I know he moved up through the KGB ranks. I thought he studied law but am not in expert by any means. 

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2 hours ago, mathnerd said:

There is a strong quid pro quo relationship between Putin and Xi. Which is what the speculation that I am hearing is alluding to. So, there is an expectation that Xi will try to work on his reunification plans on the heels of the Ukraine aggression because Putin will not object and when there is chaos, why not pile on more chaos to get away with it?

I truly hope that you are right because my Taiwanese friends are very distressed right now worrying about what's coming next.

Like we saw with Ukraine, satellite images will tell us when China is staging an invasion.  

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Putin's background

26 minutes ago, frogger said:

Where did you find this info? I didn't find it in a quick search. I know he moved up through the KGB ranks. I thought he studied law but am not in expert by any means. 

I see Roadrunner already posted one of Navalny's documentaries, lol. He's a cat with nine lives generally considered to be Putin's only real opposition, now pining in Russian jail after voluntarily returning to Moscow after probably-Putin's poison failed, barely, to kill him. Remarkably, COVID hasn't yet gotten him either (he briefly appeared in a court proceeding last week, pale but alive). Until Zelensky started this week to give him a run for his money, he was the central symbol of physical courage in the face of Putin's murderous brutality.

There are books, but here's a bio article and here's a 50,000 foot view -- long predating the current crisis -- from an analyst I admire about the chaos-and-division warfare that is Putin's MO.

Quote

Thanks to the internet and social media, the kinds of operations Soviet psy-ops teams once could only fantasize about—upending the domestic affairs of nations with information alone—are now plausible. The Gerasimov Doctrine builds a framework for these new tools, and declares that non-military tactics are not auxiliary to the use of force but the preferred way to win. That they are, in fact, the actual war. Chaos is the strategy the Kremlin pursues: Gerasimov specifies that the objective is to achieve an environment of permanent unrest and conflict within an enemy state....We’re at war with ourselves, and the enemy never fired a physical shot. “The information space opens wide asymmetrical possibilities for reducing the fighting potential of the enemy,” Gerasimov writes. (He also writes of using “internal opposition to create a permanently operating front through the entire territory of the enemy state.”)...

...This structure challenges us, because we don’t necessarily understand how it has been put into practice; like all guerrilla doctrine, it prioritizes conservation of resources and decentralization, which makes it harder to detect and follow. And strategically, its goals aren’t the ones we’re used to talking about. The Kremlin isn’t picking a winner; it’s weakening the enemy and building an environment in which anyone but the Kremlin loses.

McKew was writing in 2017. Every week since then this description has struck me as more on point than the week prior.

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25 minutes ago, Ceilingfan said:

That Zelensky is really something else. I am moved. I'm not that easy to move, anymore, but I am moved.

I'd like to also note that there are probably thousands of people in Poland doing God's work, taking in refugees. What a nightmare.

He has 2 children, a 17 year old daughter and a 9 year old son.

😭

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1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://thehill.com/policy/international/russia/595853-russia-threatens-military-and-political-consequences-if-finland
 

Putin threatens military action against Finland and Sweden if they join NATO.

thank you Ausmum. I heard something on the radio about this and hadn't found it anywhere else. was starting to think I misheard

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39 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I believe that they were present as guests at the NATO meetings for the last 2 days. maybe that is why they are being threatened

When we were stationed at NATO military headquarters, there were a number of countries who were not NATO but were PArtners in Peace.  I know that Finland was one of them because we ran across Finnish people there a few times.  My dh was taking Belgian French classes (I didn't need to since I took French in high school and college and actually remembered a lot of it) with a Finnish guy who just couldn't pronounce French correctly at all.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partnership_for_Peace

Now looking at that list- it is probably not quite up to date since presumably we are kicking Belarus out if we haven't already.

 

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1 hour ago, TravelingChris said:

When we were stationed at NATO military headquarters, there were a number of countries who were not NATO but were PArtners in Peace.  I know that Finland was one of them because we ran across Finnish people there a few times.  My dh was taking Belgian French classes (I didn't need to since I took French in high school and college and actually remembered a lot of it) with a Finnish guy who just couldn't pronounce French correctly at all.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partnership_for_Peace

Now looking at that list- it is probably not quite up to date since presumably we are kicking Belarus out if we haven't already.

 

But that says Russia is a Partnership for Peace member. Which kinda makes me think membership doesn't mean much. Or is the list wrong about that?

Edited by Pawz4me
get the organization name correct
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Medvedev's statement this morning on CNN

 

"I believe it is obvious to intelligent people: sanctions are a myth, a threat, a figure of speech. I am fundamentally indifferent to these widely publicized restrictions of rights abroad,” Medvedev said in a post on Russian social network VK on Saturday.
“The reason for the sanctions is this. It is political impotence arising from inability to change Russia’s course. Also, a hope to make up for the shameful decisions like the cowardly flight from Afghanistan.”
Medvedev, who currently serves as deputy chairman of the Security Council, added: “These amazing prohibitions will change nothing, of course. Even the ignorant people at the State Department know this.”

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re misinformation (=error) and disinformation (=intentionally false with a purpose) in the midst of the fog of war:  Reuters is doing a helpful real-time fact-check service, sussing out video clips that are floating around Facebook and twitter that purport to be footage of the current military action but which they've identified as footage from prior dates and in some cases different places.  They are regularly updating this thread and have a bit more description of some of the footage matches they've made here.

 

@Katy , thanks for that clip.   Another piece of recent backdrop to Ukraine-Russian identity relates to developments within the (Christian) Orthodox church.  There are others on this board far better able than me to explain the depth and nuances of the shared-yet-also-distinct history.  My TL/DR understanding of centuries' worth of headlines (LOL) is, the original center of gravity was Kyiv; that shifted over the centuries to Moscow; after Putin's Crimea annexation there was increased movement within Kyiv church for autonomy from Moscow; in 2019 the Constantinople patriarch formally recognized the Ukraine church as organizationally separate and then last year actually visited, which was crazy-making to Putin because it symbolized a sort of divine sanction to the split.

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Please contact your Reps and Senators and the White House and urge them to ratchet up sanctions now — specifically including sanctions on all Russian oil and gas companies and disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system. We will not and should not send troops, but we can and should make sanctions much more crippling, whether Europe joins in or not.

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18 minutes ago, bibiche said:

Please contact your Reps and Senators and the White House and urge them to ratchet up sanctions now — specifically including sanctions on all Russian oil and gas companies and disconnecting Russia from the SWIFT system. We will not and should not send troops, but we can and should make sanctions much more crippling, whether Europe joins in or not.

I’m listening to a mother of 3 who says sanctions are nothing. She is begging for help with force and peace keepers from the west. Her husband and their fathers are fighting. She mentions history. I know we are ponying up $$$ to help, but… these poor people. 

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3 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

But that says Russia is a Partnership for Peace member. Which kinda makes me think membership doesn't mean much. Or is the list wrong about that?

I don't believe it is.  Neither is Byelorussian. I don't think that list is current at all.    The situation with different countries has changed over the years too.

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9 minutes ago, Ting Tang said:

I’m listening to a mother of 3 who says sanctions are nothing. She is begging for help with force and peace keepers from the west. Her husband and their fathers are fighting. She mentions history. I know we are ponying up $$$ to help, but… these poor people. 

Sanctions are slower, but military action would result in the loss of millions of lives.

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3 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

But that says Russia is a Partnership for Peace member. Which kinda makes me think membership doesn't mean much. Or is the list wrong about that?

An article I just read about Sweden's and Finland's response to the Russian demands to not join NATO talked about how they have already allowed in the past for some NATO operations in their areas and that is presumably through PIP.  

https://www.sto.nato.int/Pages/partnership-for-peace.aspx

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/51288.htm  this one lists all the partner countries which includes Australia, Japan, etc. (and Afghanistan)

I don't know that they have updated their pages lately or if they have even thought about kicking out people.  Specifically for Russia, there was some agreements regarding terrorism.  So why Afghanistan is still listed, I don't know since it is a country ruled by terrorists. My dh was talking about that last August with me.

 

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18 minutes ago, bibiche said:

Sanctions are slower, but military action would result in the loss of millions of lives.

She says Russia will kill 60% of their population and then control the remaining 40%.  She is just a civilian.  My husband hears from one, a farmer, who says Russians are targeting homes, hospitals, schools, etc. now.  I think the problem is Russia has 6000 modern day nukes and a meglomaniac.  

Edited by Ting Tang
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It all feels WWII ish to me and I can't even place exactly why. First, Crimea, now Ukraine. How much more do we watch him take before we realize he won't stop. 

Also, how the h#ll does Russia have veto rights in the UN. You shouldn't have veto power regarding things about a war you started. BULLIES don't to veto when people try to stop their bullying. This is ludicrous. What am I missing here?

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