Omicron anecdata?

[Spryte]

25 minutes ago, HSmomof2 said:

Our whole family is vaxed and boosted. Dd got an email from her college that she had a close contact exposure on 1/5. She also works at a grocery store, but in the back, so not a lot of customer exposure. She has not been ill at all. Friday evening, I got suddenly very achy and very tired. (I have fibromyalgia, so wasn’t overly concerned). Slept 10 hours, woke up even more tired than Friday. Also had headache, some congestion, and slight sore throat and cough. No fever. Rested/slept most of Saturday. Sunday, same symptoms, was able to get a PCR test for both flu and Covid. Both negative. Dh began feeling ill (tired, achy, sore throat) yesterday, too. Today, I feel a little better, but still more tired than usual. Dh is feeling fine today. Both dc are fine. I’m not sure if I believe the negative test or not?? There are no home tests available here at all, but have some coming from Walmart that won’t arrive until Friday which will probably be too late to accurately test again. 
 

ETA:we’re in an area with high transmission….14- day cases of 1,770/100,000.

I hope you feel better soon!

It might be worth testing again, if you want to know. My mother’s test did not turn positive until day 10 after symptom onset. 

[Soror]

On 1/14/2022 at 1:12 PM, Soror said:

Dh is mostly better now but is having really bad dizzy spells sometimes when he gets up. He's lost his sense of taste and smell and also has some mucus but not too much anymore.

I went ahead and tested today as I had had some very mild sinus issues (feels like allergies - itchy eyes and a slight stuffy nose here and there). I was neg.

No one else has had anything except some stomach issues with dd2- some stomach pains during the weekend and then diminished appetite for a few days- coincidentally she also trialed gluten (had stomach issues before neg. Celiac test but dr's had no other ideas so we took her off and it improved- we were doing a small trial a year later now).

Dh was fairly well back to normal by Day 8. He lost his sense of taste and smell for a couple of days but it has came back.

Dd1 started feeling achy yesterday with a low grade fever. Other kids have no symptoms.

I started feeling tired on Saturday and have a bit of drainage. I tested again this am and am still negative.

[mommyoffive]

Covid-19 live updates: Don’t count on omicron ending the pandemic, Fauci says (msn.com)

[mommyoffive]

State of Affairs: Jan 18 - Your Local Epidemiologist (substack.com)

 

1. Peak: We truly peaked on a national level. This would be sooner than we expected (projections were estimating Feb 3), but obviously a welcome sign.

On a state-level, cases in many Northeast states, like New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Maryland, have clearly peaked and started nosediving. We are not only seeing this in case and TPR patterns, but we’re seeing a similar pattern in wastewater. In Boston, viral loads in fecal samples continue to decline and have almost reached pre-Omicron levels. An extraordinary turnaround.

States in the West are now growth leaders, with cases in Alaska (+610%), Texas (+428%), Utah (+414%), Oregon (+402%), and Montana (+394%) exponentially increasing in the past 2 weeks. While some of these cases are among the vaccinated, cases are still dominated by unvaccinated people. CDC hasn’t updated their website since November 20 (get it together, CDC!), but many jurisdictions regularly report cases by vaccination status. For example, below is the latest graph from the Oregon Health Authority. I don’t know if this differentiation could be partially driven by testing behaviors, like unvaccinated people being more likely to get a PCR test than vaccinated.

Edited January 18, 2022 by mommyoffive

[mommyto4]

I thought I would add our experience with Omicron...

 

DS17 -- Tested positive on 4th -- tired, achy, sore throat, runny nose -- stayed in bed for three days, feeling better after 6 days

DD13 -- Tested negative on the 8th -- tired, sore throat, a bit of a cough -- stayed in bed for three days, better after 5 days

DS9 -- Tested positive on the 14th -- hoarse voice, sore throat, brief low-grade fever, good energy, and appetite

DD8 -- Tested positive on the 17th -- slight, brief fever, chills, runny nose, good energy 

So that leaves just DS15 and my husband and me (although I have a sore throat and runny nose today).

I have thought that it would spread quickly through our family, but it has taken a long time...  

All adults and teens are fully vaccinated with adults boosted.  Kids had one shot.

 

 

[Eos]

M

Edited February 6, 2023 by Eos

[mommyoffive]

Preliminary Israeli study shows fourth COVID booster doesn't stop omicron infections - MarketWatch

[Matryoshka]

8 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Preliminary Israeli study shows fourth COVID booster doesn't stop omicron infections - MarketWatch

This does not surprise me.  We need an Omicron-specific mRNA vaccine (or better yet, a Delta/Omicron double-fisted one).  This is much better than just giving ever more doses of a vaccine that doesn't even match any of the circulating variants anymore.  It was awesome they got the original vaccines out so fast, but no resting on laurels with this.  Time to move on to the next phase.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Matryoshka

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

47 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

This does not surprise me.  We need an Omicron-specific mRNA vaccine (or better yet, a Delta/Omicron double-fisted one).  This is much better than just giving ever more doses of a vaccine that doesn't even match any of the circulating variants anymore.  It was awesome they got the original vaccines out so fast, but no resting on laurels with this.  Time to move on to the next phase.

I’m concerned that by the time we get an Omicron specific vaccine, it won’t matter because another variant will be circulating.

[catz]

7 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

I’m concerned that by the time we get an Omicron specific vaccine, it won’t matter because another variant will be circulating.

Because of the contagiousness of Omicron, it is more likely to be an Omicron descendent though is my understanding?  Having additional immune coverage may be better for the vulnerable who may be more likely to be locked down this wave and may translate better for a potential next wave even if it is a different variant.  We haven't had it at our house, knocking on all the wood.  I guess we will see, Pfizer is supposed to have an update in March.  Pfizer themselves said they're preparing but don't know what the usage and need of that vaccine will be at this point.  Which is somewhat impressive for them, I absolutely think drug companies issue press releases targeted at tweaking the stock market.    

[prairiewindmomma]

A note on the OHA data @mommyoffive posted above. The darker counties on the map shown above showing higher numbers of breakthrough cases are urban areas where a high % of the population has been vaccinated and where the population is more likely to test to document a reinfection. The very vast majority of the deaths have happened among the unvaccinated in other parts of the state (south and also east of those urban areas). It’s a bit of info obvious to those following the history of how Covid how rolled through in Oregon, but it’s not geographically specified out in this data release. It is in the hospital reports. 

[Faith-manor]

Stopping in briefly to add our family experience.

We dropped youngest ds (21) at his campus on the 8th. My mom trimmed his hair for him on the evening of the 7th. Ds had JnJ back in May, and a Moderna booster right before Christmas. He felt a stuffy nose and very mild sore throat with a limited cough on Thursday morning the 13th. His roommate had six Binax tests that his parents sent with him to school, and he offered one to ds. Positive. He packed his stuff, headed to the quarantine dorm, and then notified campus health. They sent a nurse to check on him, and he was doing fine. By evening his symptoms had ended except for a slightly runny nose, and that was gone by the morning of the 14th. So he was seriously not sick much at all. The nurse stopped by to check him out, and then told him if he tested negative on Monday the 17th, he would be released back to his regular dorm, and for extra special caution, to wear his mask inside his room (they have mandatory KN95 everywhere except in your own room and outside when not walking/gathering in a group). His roommate told him it was too uncomfortable to sleep in a KN95 and said to downgrade to s a soft, cloth mask. Ds slept okay last night in the cloth mask but not great. His roommate said that on Wednesday he would feel comfortable with ds not masking inside the room anymore. Knowing ds, he will still do the five days. He is very conscientious, and does not want to spread it.

Ds says to tell you, "I am very thankful I had the vaccine booster". There was a student in the room next to him in quarantine, and he could hear her coughing so hard she was often gagging. It was constant. She talked quite loud when the nurse was there giving her what he thinks, from the sound of the machine, was breathing treatments, and apparently they would have liked to hospitalize her but no beds available. He also said when he left, he heard her say to the nurse that she wished she had been vaccinated. He said the nurse was very kind and did not make a snarky comment back as she was shutting the room door to leave. He thanked the nurse on his way out for talking good care of them, and for being so nice. I worry about that student being away from home and so darn sick. 

I am eternally grateful ds had a light case.

Mark and I were unable to get tested due to the high case load here. Asymptomatic people have zero shot at a test, and there isn't a binax on the shelves for a 100 miles. But, my mom had been pre-scheduled for a month to get her PCR test 30 hours before she was to leave for France with a rush put on it by her doctor to make sure the results would be in before she left. It was negative. Given that the average from exposure to onset of symptoms for omicron is 2-5 days, and ds was symptomatic 5 days after being dropped on campus, we are guessing he got it eating in the cafeteria. It was so cold outside, windchills below zero, that he was not taking his food back to his dorm room to eat because then he would have had to walk in that bitterness right back to the building next door for class. His dorm is about four blocks from the dining hall he uses. 

He is in class today (the first day of in person classes because they did the first week virtual) in his KN95. He is a senior and none of his classes have more than 20 people, and are in large rooms so he is able to socially distance. His hope is vax, booster, now antibodies from infection, and KN95 will be enough to get him through the semester without getting it again.

I worry about something popping up later, long covid symptoms, but try not to think about it too much.

He is coming home for spring break, and so we will do an isolation here except for skiing. He and his brother will ski, but not go inside the lodge. Otherwise, we will stay away from mother in law the entire time, and then for five days after returning him to campus, wear KN95 around her while she wears her N95. This way we hope to keep her safe while also having ds home. Mark is mentoring three pairs of students from the campus through their senior projects since the professor who is in charge has been sick off and on, and they aren't getting enough direction and instruction. He is loving it! Ds will be working on his while he is home that week.

[ktgrok]

3 hours ago, mommyto4 said:

I thought I would add our experience with Omicron...

 

DS17 -- Tested positive on 4th -- tired, achy, sore throat, runny nose -- stayed in bed for three days, feeling better after 6 days

DD13 -- Tested negative on the 8th -- tired, sore throat, a bit of a cough -- stayed in bed for three days, better after 5 days

DS9 -- Tested positive on the 14th -- hoarse voice, sore throat, brief low-grade fever, good energy, and appetite

DD8 -- Tested positive on the 17th -- slight, brief fever, chills, runny nose, good energy 

So that leaves just DS15 and my husband and me (although I have a sore throat and runny nose today).

I have thought that it would spread quickly through our family, but it has taken a long time...  

All adults and teens are fully vaccinated with adults boosted.  Kids had one shot.

 

 

That is how it was in my sisters family. She thought they were in the clear and then another one got sick. Took a full two weeks at least for all three of them to catch it and test positive.

[mommyoffive]

Covidtests.gov    is up and running!

I already ordered my 4 tests!

[mommyoffive]

US faces wave of omicron deaths in coming weeks, models say (msn.com)

 

South Africa is over Omicron, and that may be good news for the U.S. (msn.com)

 

COVID-19 health emergency could be over this year, WHO says (msn.com)

 

 

Expect more worrisome variants after omicron, scientists say (msn.com)

[mommyoffive]

$20 off an outschool class through 1/23 with code KEEPLEARNING

Outschool is  also are offering free classes for schools that have had to shut down due to covid/staffing.

Keep Learning with Outschool

[GoodGrief3]

7 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

States in the West are now growth leaders, with cases in Alaska (+610%), Texas (+428%), Utah (+414%), Oregon (+402%), and Montana (+394%) exponentially increasing in the past 2 weeks. While some of these cases are among the vaccinated, cases are still dominated by unvaccinated people.

That last sentence is interesting, and does not correlate with my current observations in one of those states. Personally, I haven't seen any evidence in my circle of acquaintances that the vaccinated are less likely to be infected by this current wave of Covid than unvaccinated. In fact, I don't personally know any unvaccinated people that got hit in this current wave, though I did know many who were infected with Delta. What I am seeing now is the vaccinated and typically careful people getting hit. They are not getting terribly sick, perhaps because of the vax, though as variable as Covid symptoms tend to be, I'm not sure how one would know.

[KSera]

11 minutes ago, GoodGrief3 said:

That last sentence is interesting, and does not correlate with my current observations in one of those states. Personally, I haven't seen any evidence in my circle of acquaintances that the vaccinated are less likely to be infected by this current wave of Covid than unvaccinated. In fact, I don't personally know any unvaccinated people that got hit in this current wave, though I did know many who were infected with Delta. What I am seeing now is the vaccinated and typically careful people getting hit. They are not getting terribly sick, perhaps because of the vax, though as variable as Covid symptoms tend to be, I'm not sure how one would know.

I have actually been surprised that all the statistics I'm seeing lately are still showing case rates much higher among the unvaccinated. I know of so many people who have had breakthrough infections that it seems like there wouldn't be a difference right now, but then I see the actual case rates, and it really is still a significant difference even in cases (and of course dramatic in hospitalization and death). I mean, check out Oregon:

 

[TexasProud]

Yeah, the only people I know that have gotten it lately are vaccinated AND boosted.  But then no one in my circles is unvaccinated. 

[TexasProud]

Just now, TexasProud said:

Yeah, the only people I know that have gotten it lately are vaccinated AND boosted.  But then no one in my circles is unvaccinated. 

Plus, omicron seems to have hit the states with high vaccinations as hard as lower ones. That wasn’t true for Delta. 

[melmichigan]

All of the people my DH works with that have gotten it this month have been unvaccinated. I think it's equally about what risks people are taking.  Here the majority of the unvaccinated don't take any precautions at all, while vaccinated are masking.  I think it has the potential to impact both, as vaccinated doesn't exclude you from getting it.  My SIL and BIL just had it a second time and they're now vaccinated, one boosted, since the first time they had it.  BIL wasn't taking precautions any longer and got it at work.

Edited January 18, 2022 by melmichigan

[catz]

New York has nice charts showing unvaxxed vs vaxxed case and hospitilzation rates too.  Seems pretty clear the vaccinated must least be getting some protection even though we are seeing plenty of breakthrough cases right now.  

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data

 

[TexasProud]

8 minutes ago, FuzzyCatz said:

New York has nice charts showing unvaxxed vs vaxxed case and hospitilzation rates too.  Seems pretty clear the vaccinated must least be getting some protection even though we are seeing plenty of breakthrough cases right now.  

https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/covid-19-breakthrough-data

 

Hospitalizations, absolutely! Getting it, not so much. 

[KSera]

4 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Hospitalizations, absolutely! Getting it, not so much. 

Have you looked at the graphs and data? It actually is still making a significant difference, which surprises me as well, because it doesn't seem like it when so many people are getting breakthroughs. But also, almost everyone I know is vaccinated, so it makes sense that I would mostly only know people with breakthrough infections rather than unvaccinated infections. Most people I know haven't had actually had covid yet though.

eta: for example, from the link fuzzycatz just shared:

Edited January 19, 2022 by KSera

[popmom]

4 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Covidtests.gov    is up and running!

I already ordered my 4 tests!

They aren't shipping until the end of January. 😒

[TexasProud]

5 minutes ago, KSera said:

Have you looked at the graphs and data? It actually is still making a significant difference, which surprises me as well, because it doesn't seem like it when so many people are getting breakthroughs. But also, almost everyone I know is vaccinated, so it makes sense that I would mostly only know people with breakthrough infections rather than unvaccinated infections. Most people I know haven't had actually had covid yet though.

eta: for example, from the link fuzzycatz just shared:

All I know is that 4 pf my teacher friends have it, both step brothers(different states), and two nieces(again not related to step-brothers and not in same states, so these are not relatives passing it around. We will see if the families of my relatives get it this week.  All of these people are vaccinated and boosted.   Now, none are hospitalized.  

[TCB]

6 minutes ago, popmom said:

They aren't shipping until the end of January. 😒

I’m glad they’re doing this, but honestly it’s a pretty pathetic effort overall.

[KSera]

4 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

All I know is that 4 pf my teacher friends have it, both step brothers(different states), and two nieces(again not related to step-brothers and not in same states, so these are not relatives passing it around. We will see if the families of my relatives get it this week.  All of these people are vaccinated and boosted.   Now, none are hospitalized.  

Yeah, but that still doesn't change that statistically, people who are unvaccinated are testing positive at much higher rates than people who aren't. They just are. Plus, as you said,

 

1 hour ago, TexasProud said:

Yeah, the only people I know that have gotten it lately are vaccinated AND boosted.  But then no one in my circles is unvaccinated. 

So, of course the people you know who have it are vaccinated.

[TexasProud]

1 minute ago, KSera said:

Yeah, but that still doesn't change that statistically, people who are unvaccinated are testing positive at much higher rates than people who aren't. They just are. Plus, as you said,

 

So, of course the people you know who have it are vaccinated.

Fine. I will believe what I want. You cannot change my mind. Period. 

[catz]

8 minutes ago, KSera said:

Have you looked at the graphs and data? It actually is still making a significant difference, which surprises me as well, because it doesn't seem like it when so many people are getting breakthroughs. But also, almost everyone I know is vaccinated, so it makes sense that I would mostly only know people with breakthrough infections rather than unvaccinated infections. Most people I know haven't had actually had covid yet though.

eta: for example, from the link fuzzycatz just shared:

Thank you for putting that inline.  It is really striking to look at!  Definitely a better looking situation than I was expecting.  

 

1 minute ago, TexasProud said:

All I know is that 4 pf my teacher friends have it, both step brothers(different states), and two nieces(again not related to step-brothers and not in same states, so these are not relatives passing it around. We will see if the families of my relatives get it this week.  All of these people are vaccinated and boosted.   Now, none are hospitalized.  

This is why it good to look at data from a broader scale.  This is based on data from 888,000+ breakthrough cases.  I will say, I am in a sea of vaxxed and boosted people here.  I know plenty of people with exposures in the past month who haven't gotten covid either.  Including us.  My college student is testing today from an exposure last week, but he is at 6 days post exposure now and asymptomatic (and recently boosted) so not really worried about it.  I do know a handful of breakthrough cases in the past month.  I mean, unless you're pretty locked down, a lot of us have probably been exposed.  

[TexasProud]

Just now, FuzzyCatz said:

Thank you for putting that inline.  It is really striking to look at!  Definitely a better looking situation than I was expecting.  

 

This is why it good to look at data from a broader scale.  This is based on data from 888,000+ breakthrough cases.  I will say, I am in a sea of vaxxed and boosted people here.  I know plenty of people with exposures in the past month who haven't gotten covid either.  Including us.  My college student is testing today from an exposure last week, but he is at 6 days post exposure now and asymptomatic (and recently boosted) so not really worried about it.  I do know a handful of breakthrough cases in the past month.  I mean, unless you're pretty locked down, a lot of us have probably been exposed.  

don’t care. we are all dioomed. Doesnt natter

[catz]

Just now, TexasProud said:

don’t care. we are all dioomed. Doesnt natter

If you say so. 🤷‍♀️

[TexasProud]

Until this one mutates. Tgen who knows . THIS IS NEVER GOJNG TO END!!!!!!

[KSera]

2 minutes ago, FuzzyCatz said:

Thank you for putting that inline.  It is really striking to look at!  Definitely a better looking situation than I was expecting.  

 

Can you imagine if we hadn't had so much of the population vaccinated before omicron hit? That's a stunning, horrible thought. Fortunately, elderly people who are at highest risk have quite high vaccination rates. If they hadn't been able to be vaccinated, the level of hospitalizations and deaths we would be seeing right now is hard to even imagine (it's horrible enough as it is, but it's the first time I considered how much worse it could have been).

[ktgrok]

34 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Fine. I will believe what I want. You cannot change my mind. Period. 

when data means nothing to you I guess not

[whitestavern]

1 hour ago, TexasProud said:

Fine. I will believe what I want. You cannot change my mind. Period. 

In my circle of acquaintances, many of the vaxxed are getting “colds” or “allergies” and don’t consider Covid as a possibility so they’re not testing. One of my coworkers didn’t test until she lost her taste. 

Edited January 19, 2022 by whitestavern

[whitestavern]

Has anyone seen any information on deaths attributed to Omicron? I believe the one in Texas was actually attributed to something else afterwards. I’ve tried finding data but I’m not coming up with anything except for one death in Israel. 

[Matryoshka]

17 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

Has anyone seen any information on deaths attributed to Omicron? I believe the one in Texas was actually attributed to something else afterwards. I’ve tried finding data but I’m not coming up with anything except for one death in Israel. 

Wait, what?  My state, coming off our Omicron surge (looks like we might be getting to the other side) has been averaging 40-50 Covid deaths per day over the past couple of weeks.  It was less than half that through the Delta wave (which had many less cases, so still a much lower CFR with Omicron)... but that's not just one or two since Omicron hit.  That's 40-50 per day. 

And I live in one of the most highly vaxxed and boosted states in the US.  Our deaths:case ratio is way lower than many other states.  We just got the wave really early.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Matryoshka

[Martha in GA]

This pre-print indicates about 55% effectiveness of Pfizer (37% for Moderna) against Omicron initially, but vaccine effectiveness wanes quickly over time. After 3 months or so, the effectiveness of the vaccine is negative?

Pre-print about Vaccination Effectiveness against Omicron

I hope this inserts correctly...

[GoodGrief3]

25 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

In my circle of acquaintances, many of the vaxxed are getting “colds” or “allergies” and don’t consider Covid as a possibility so they’re not testing. One of my coworkers didn’t test until she lost her taste. 

I'd say it's the opposite with the people I know; vaccinated tend to rush to test, have multiple home tests, etc. The unvaccinated seem more likely to wait until they really have to test because of severity (or required for school/work/travel).

[cintinative]

The thing about anecdotal evidence is . . . it's anecdotal. We only know who we know.  

I know of a family who are unvaccinated that recently had COVID and they had pneumonia and barely avoided the hospital.

I know of an unvaccinated person who died,

I know of vaccinated/boosted people who had "really bad colds" 

I know of vaccinated/boosted people that barely had symptoms at all.

In my brother's family, the two unboosted kids had bad headache, sore throat, fever, and body aches. Of the two boosted adults, one had a sore throat for multiple days, a fever for a day, and a headache and fatigue/aches for about a week. The other has yet to have any symptoms at all. 

Everyone's body is different. It should not be surprising to us when we have something as contagious as measles out there that we see 31 flavors of outcome.

Praying for you, TexasProud. I think you are a person of faith.  There is a purpose in this that we can't see right now.  It's hard, and it stinks, but you are not alone in this. 

 

 

[fraidycat]

Here is my anecdata. Everyone in my house is double-vaxed, but no boosters. (Canada, so our vac timeline is a little later than the U.S.)

We all have what I assume is Omicron, as it is now the dominant strain in our area.

DS15 is, I assume patient 0, the first to exibit "symptoms" last week, and by that I mean I slightly sore throat, then a slight tickle in his throat kind of cough. He tested negative repeatedly with rapid tests. No fever, body aches, nothing that pointed to being sick, sick. 

Saturday, DH started running a low fever  of around 99-100, and is congested sounding and gets "swimmy head" from his sinuses. He has body aches, but probably like 3-5 on a scale of 10, off and on. Today he tested + on a rapid test. His c-pap machine does show that his breathing is affected at night. He's recording more "episodes" than normal.

DD started feeling congested last night and tested positive today on the rapid test. Slight fever of 99.5-99.9. She has a headache.

I felt sweaty this morning, so took my temp. Fever of around 100-100.8. Possibly slight congestion, but not something I would even notice if I wasn't "looking" for it. My muscles might be a little achier than normal, but I'm 45 so can't tell for sure if it's normal aches or "extra". Lol Basically, other than the fever I would not have any indication of illness. I did not bother using up one of our rapid tests. I'm sure I've got it, test or not.

All in all, so far everyone is mild. We'll see how the next few days go for DD and I as the last ones to exhibit symptoms. DH seems to be "the worst" of all of us, but if this were non-covid times he'd probably still be going to work (outdoors or in a truck, low contact with others) because it is really just like a slight - medium cold, not even a "bad cold", and he's kinda stubborn like that. He's not one who gets a "man cold" - he will power through until I beg him to let his body rest.

 

Edited January 19, 2022 by fraidycat

[whitestavern]

19 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Wait, what?  My state, coming off our Omicron surge (looks like we might be getting to the other side) has been averaging 40-50 Covid deaths per day over the past couple of weeks.  It was less than half that through the Delta wave (which had many less cases, so still a much lower CFR with Omicron)... but that's not just one or two since Omicron hit.  That's 40-50 per day. 

And I live in one of the most highly vaxxed and boosted states in the US.  Our deaths:case ratio is way lower than many other states.  We just got the wave really early.

They are actually reporting that those are from Omicron? If so can you share a link? Our state doesn’t break down by variant. I can’t find anywhere that does. 

[Harriet Vane]

52 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

Has anyone seen any information on deaths attributed to Omicron? I believe the one in Texas was actually attributed to something else afterwards. I’ve tried finding data but I’m not coming up with anything except for one death in Israel. 

CDC has confirmed that Omicron is the dominant strain in all fifty states. WHO and other health organizations have also confirmed Omicron is the dominant strain virtually everywhere. CDC sequences a representative sampling of variants nationwide. Where there is sequencing there is confirmation of this. Therefore most current deaths are omicron.

 

Edited January 19, 2022 by Harriet Vane

[Matryoshka]

20 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

They are actually reporting that those are from Omicron? If so can you share a link? Our state doesn’t break down by variant. I can’t find anywhere that does. 

We had a Delta wave. Then Omicron hit. Hospitalizations and deaths barely budged with Delta.  Yay vaccines. Then when Omicron hit, cases went through the stratosphere, and deaths, as is usual with Covid, lagged the Omicron case rise by a few weeks. It's Omicron. 

Deaths have peaked at about 3x what they were in the Delta wave, but cases got to over 10x as high, and probably higher, as I think testing has been more overwhelmed (look to be going back down now)

Edited January 19, 2022 by Matryoshka

[kokotg]

18 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

They are actually reporting that those are from Omicron? If so can you share a link? Our state doesn’t break down by variant. I can’t find anywhere that does. 

The CDC estimates that 99.3 to 99.7% of cases right now are omicron. There's virtually no delta left: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

[TCB]

1 hour ago, whitestavern said:

Has anyone seen any information on deaths attributed to Omicron? I believe the one in Texas was actually attributed to something else afterwards. I’ve tried finding data but I’m not coming up with anything except for one death in Israel. 

How does that add up to Omicron being the dominant strain and the US having around 2000 deaths a day, all still Delta? Some places have had Omicron around for a while over here.

[whitestavern]

Well our CDC director says they’re mostly Delta, which is why I’m trying to find actual numbers for Omicron. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-covid-hospitalizations-up-about-33-deaths-up-about-40-over-past-week-cdc-2022-01-12/

 

[popmom]

48 minutes ago, TCB said:

How does that add up to Omicron being the dominant strain and the US having around 2000 deaths a day, all still Delta? Some places have had Omicron around for a while over here.

I can see this—that it’s still Delta. Many critical cases are hospitalized for weeks—months. Delta was still present significantly through the end of the year in some areas. So I agree with the above article. It will be awhile before we know how many deaths can be attributed to Omicron. I’m in the southeast where Delta peaked back in summer. Our Delta and overall COVID numbers were very low until the holidays when Omicron hit. Our 7 day death average is 2. As in single digit 2 for the entire state. This number will no doubt increase over the coming weeks, but hopefully nowhere near Delta numbers. Our hospitals are reporting far less need for ventilators among those currently hospitalized. NOTE: I am NOT MINIMIZING THE DANGER OF OMICRON OR ITS IMPACT ON THE HEALTH CARE SYSTEM. Thank you. 🙂

Edited January 19, 2022 by popmom

[kokotg]

9 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

Well our CDC director says they’re mostly Delta, which is why I’m trying to find actual numbers for Omicron. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-covid-hospitalizations-up-about-33-deaths-up-about-40-over-past-week-cdc-2022-01-12/

 

huh. That's strange. I mean, Delta wasn't surging before omicron like the article says. There certainly was plenty of Delta circulating, but nationwide numbers went down from September until November. There were some modest increases in early November and then really sharp increases starting in later November and into December. Basically, I don't see an increase in pre-omicron numbers that would support a 60% increase in deaths. The increase in deaths started a few weeks after the omicron surge started, just like you would expect; I believe 3-4 weeks has been the lag in every wave. Suggesting that somehow deaths started increasing rapidly a few weeks after omicron cases did but that this time it had nothing to do with the surge in cases seems...mathematically improbable to me. But I am, of course, not an epidemiologist. But the models the epidemiologists are making seem to think there will be plenty of omicron deaths in the coming months: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-omicron-covid-19-deaths-08f8db29985b992d5ef98ccfa1459eb7