COVID-19: The Scientific Progress Thread

[JennyD]

Researchers and clinicians all over the world are all working frantically to find treatments, strategies, and ultimately a vaccine for the novel coronavirus.  This thread is to keep track of these developments.  Please post links to or excerpts from publications that you find interesting.    (English summaries of non-English-language articles are much appreciated.)

 

[JennyD]

Israeli researchers have developed a faster, cheaper test that uses domestically available materials.  

[PrincessMommy]

Thank you! I've stopped reading the other covid thread... nuff said. 🙄

My understanding is the NIH is beginning research into Undetected CV cases of those with no known exposure:

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection

Here's the info if you want to join the study:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04334954?term=serosurvey&cond=covid-19&draw=2&rank=1#contacts

[JennyD]

Rutgers University has gotten FDA approval for a saliva test.

The hypothesis  that other live vaccines might grant cross-protection.

[mommyoffive]

On 4/12/2020 at 2:02 PM, PrincessMommy said:

Thank you! I've stopped reading the other covid thread... nuff said. 🙄

My understanding is the NIH is beginning research into Undetected CV cases of those with no known exposure:

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-begins-study-quantify-undetected-cases-coronavirus-infection

Here's the info if you want to join the study:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04334954?term=serosurvey&cond=covid-19&draw=2&rank=1#contacts

 

Yes, the other thread is to big.  At points way to fast moving.  Plus if you want to find anything in there it is buried.  I love all the spinoff threads that are about something specific so that you can refer to it. 

 

[hopeallgoeswell]

Pittsburgh Vaccine:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32249203

I am calling this Lots-of-hands-in-the-pie Vaccine:

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/03/30/hhs-accelerates-clinical-trials-prepares-manufacturing-covid-19-vaccines.html

The complete lack of liability is concerning, especially since these vaccines are being fast-tracked, I'm not sure as to whether they have placebo-controlled studies, and they might be government-mandated: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/15/2020-08040/amendment-to-declaration-under-the-public-readiness-and-emergency-preparedness-act-for-medical

A vaccine and a "tattoo" to show you got the vaccine all in one?  It doesn't seem too far off, scientifically-speaking.

https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/11/523/eaay7162  (Full paper: https://sci-hub.tw/10.1126/scitranslmed.aay7162)

[hopeallgoeswell]

On 4/12/2020 at 11:25 AM, JennyD said:

Israeli researchers have developed a faster, cheaper test that uses domestically available materials.  

Is there anything in English that points to the false positive/negative rates of this test?

[ElizabethB]

Covid-19 and Vitamin D Information

Dr Gareth Davies (PhD), Dr Joanna Byers (MBChB), Dr Attila R Garami (MD, PhD)

Long, very interesting.  Shows mechanism of how D could help, also shows graph of deaths vs. latitude.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ka7h4fbi7xdz9s9/Covid-19 and Vitamin D Information.pdf?dl=0

They have a poster for hospitals, they want tracking, testing, and treatment of all Covid patients' vitamin D levels, and recommend that all hospital staff take daily D3 supplements.  Poster: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ROn9Si3jXQzfgAwijH4JMv-n7wYJwrAMAefIM4kULkg/edit

Vitamin D is correlated with many of the factors of COVID.

Age: https://www.health.harvard.edu/staying-healthy/time-for-more-vitamin-d

Obesity: https://www.livescience.com/26961-obesity-causes-vitamin-d-deficiency.html

Race: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/vitamin-d-coronavirus-gap-liz-brown/

Edited April 17, 2020 by ElizabethB

[JennyD]

8 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Is there anything in English that points to the false positive/negative rates of this test?

 

Not that I've seen in the news.  

[Ausmumof3]

7news

NEW 60-MINUTE VIRUS TEST

South Australians will soon be able to discover if they have coronavirus within an hour at metropolitan hospitals and 10 regional centres.

Premier Steven Marshall said SA Pathology’s rapid testing capability would provide clinicians with the necessary information to make quick decisions regarding the treatment and care of patients with COVID-19.

Health Minister Stephen Wade said SA’s “world-class testing regime has been critical in our success in bending the curve and pushing out the peak of COVID-19”.

The $684,000 rapid testing program will provide results within an hour but cost $30 to $40 per test. The current tests are much cheaper but take about 24 hours for a result.

SA Pathology’s director of clinical services, Dr Tom Dodd, said rapid testing would be “extremely beneficial” for patients.

“The rapid testing will allow clinicians to make early and well-informed decisions about the treatment requirements of COVID-19 patients, which can be particularly important for patients showing symptoms of the virus,” Dr Dodd said.

The 10 regional hospitals which will have the capacity are Southern Fleurieu (Victor Harbor); Gawler; Port Augusta; Whyalla; Port Lincoln; Murray Bridge; Berri (Riverland general hospital); Mt Gambier; Port Pirie; and Wallaroo.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/
 

chicago study finding positive outcomes using remdesivir

[mommyoffive]

Just read this on Kiplingers

Amid all the coverage of infections and deaths caused by the novel coronavirus, a glimmer of hope has appeared on the drug front, as Gilead Science's (GILD) remdesivir appears to be speeding the recovery of COVID-19 patients in a Chicago hospital. Out of 113 patients with severe symptoms, only two died and many were discharged in a week or less. These are the first anecdotal reports in a study that won't be concluded until May 1. There was no placebo group for comparison, and so results are tentative. 

[almondbutterandjelly]

Locally (south Texas), they are using convalescent plasma with success.  (antibodies from people that had Covid and recovered).  The infectious disease doctor has said that his goal is to give it to patients on the first day they are in the hospital, and he did meet this goal with the fifth patient (if I recall correctly).  That person was out of the hospital in five days, rather than two or three weeks.  So he is very pleased.

https://www.kristv.com/news/local-news/plasma-from-recovered-covid-19-patients-helping-others

[Kanin]

Article about Georgia State University testing a rheumatoid arthritis drug (Auranofin) on Covid19; results in the lab show the drug able to eliminate 95% of the virus and also calm the inflammation: https://www.wthr.com/article/researchers-lab-tests-rheumatoid-arthritis-drug-reduce-or-eliminate-covid-19-human-cells

I didn't know that research teams are testing many existing drugs to see if they're effective against Covid. Pretty cool. 

[mumto2]

17 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Just read this on Kiplingers

Amid all the coverage of infections and deaths caused by the novel coronavirus, a glimmer of hope has appeared on the drug front, as Gilead Science's (GILD) remdesivir appears to be speeding the recovery of COVID-19 patients in a Chicago hospital. Out of 113 patients with severe symptoms, only two died and many were discharged in a week or less. These are the first anecdotal reports in a study that won't be concluded until May 1. There was no placebo group for comparison, and so results are tentative. 

Thank you for this thread!  Posting in part so I can keep track of it.
 

  That highlighted  makes me so sad because how in a pandemic can anyone seriously be expected to have a placebo group, which means those placebo patients would receive zero treatment.

[Miss Tick]

15 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

That highlighted  makes me so sad because how in a pandemic can anyone seriously be expected to have a placebo group, which means those placebo patients would receive zero treatment.

They would still receive the same treatment everyone else is getting, just no doses of the experimental drug which may or may not help.

[TCB]

16 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

Thank you for this thread!  Posting in part so I can keep track of it.
 

  That highlighted  makes me so sad because how in a pandemic can anyone seriously be expected to have a placebo group, which means those placebo patients would receive zero treatment.

They would receive treatment but just not with that drug, which may or may not be useful. My heart finds it hard to deal with these studies but I can also see Dr Fauci’s point about doing a quick proper study to really get at the truth of what works. Painful in the short term but possibly so much more helpful to thousands. It’s hard though. The other thing that is difficult with Covid-19 is the huge variation in severity of illness. It seems so hard to know if you’re comparing like with like. The study above using plasma from recovered patients said the 5th pt was given it the first day, but from what we’ve seen, which I admit is very limited, it’s not always easy to tell that early in how severe things will end up being. 

[ElizabethB]

1 hour ago, Mainer said:

Article about Georgia State University testing a rheumatoid arthritis drug (Auranofin) on Covid19; results in the lab show the drug able to eliminate 95% of the virus and also calm the inflammation: https://www.wthr.com/article/researchers-lab-tests-rheumatoid-arthritis-drug-reduce-or-eliminate-covid-19-human-cells

I didn't know that research teams are testing many existing drugs to see if they're effective against Covid. Pretty cool. 

That is how they found ivermectin, which was also effective against Covid in the lab.  That sounds like an interesting and useful team to be on, testing existing drugs against Covid cultures.  They tried things that were helpful against SARS and other coronaviruses first, I think ivermectin was helpful against SARS. (From another article about ivermectin.)

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-deaths-u-s-nursing-homes-soar-more-5-500-n1184536

Edited April 18, 2020 by ElizabethB

[Frances]

Germany is undertaking large scale antibody studies to better understand the virus and its spread.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/18/world/europe/with-broad-random-tests-for-antibodies-germany-seeks-path-out-of-lockdown.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

 

[frogger]

My problem is that everything looks useful when you have no control group considering the vast majority recover anyway so it's hard to get excited. 

 

 

[JennyD]

Interesting article about Israeli scientists trying to figure out how to use sewage testing for coronavirus surveillance.  

Edited April 21, 2020 by JennyD

[ktgrok]

On 4/18/2020 at 1:06 PM, frogger said:

My problem is that everything looks useful when you have no control group considering the vast majority recover anyway so it's hard to get excited. 

 

 

um, what? The vast majority of pepole recover from a headache too, but it is still possible to test headache medication. 

There is a vast range of outcomes with this disease, and if a drug can speed up healing, prevent ventilator use, prevent long term damage, etc etc etc that would be good to know, and if used enough, very possible to know. 

[frogger]

I would think you would use control groups with headache medicine. Why wouldn't you?

 

I won't argue with you. I am glad they trying all sorts of things and I like seeing the different ideas but I'm not going to get overexcited until data is clearer. That is all.  Don't mean to dampen your enthusiasm though. 

 

[hopeallgoeswell]

51 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

um, what? The vast majority of pepole recover from a headache too, but it is still possible to test headache medication. 

There is a vast range of outcomes with this disease, and if a drug can speed up healing, prevent ventilator use, prevent long term damage, etc etc etc that would be good to know, and if used enough, very possible to know. 

With no control groups, you can't tell if it's the treatment that is aiding recovery or something else.  Studies that have no placebo controls don't give much useful interpretation of the data/treatment.

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

With no control groups, you can't tell if it's the treatment that is aiding recovery or something else.  Studies that have no placebo controls don't give much useful interpretation of the data/treatment.

You can have treated vs untreated though, and get insights. 

[hopeallgoeswell]

2 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

You can have treated vs untreated though, and get insights. 

Untreated would be the control group.  Using a drug on an individual or group outside of a study might have good outcomes, but no one can say anything with any certainty about what caused the outcome, could be chance or confounding variables or that the drug is actually efficacious at treating the symptoms. If doctors just throw drugs at an illness and we see a pattern that one is promising, we still can't say that it's effective, but we would have anecdotal evidence that might lead to a study being done (treatment v. control).

[Laura Corin]

https://www.qub.ac.uk/coronavirus/health-clinical-research/working-to-find-a-coronavirus-treatment/screening-500000-possible-drug-combinations-against-covid-19/

A very good podcast on statistics, not all Covid:

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/more-or-less-behind-the-stats/id267300884

Edited April 22, 2020 by Laura Corin

[Ausmumof3]

https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-17/coronavirus-vaccine-ian-frazer/12146616
 

good article explaining the challenges with developing a vaccine for any Coronavirus and some things they will try.  
 

 

[ktgrok]

9 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Untreated would be the control group.  Using a drug on an individual or group outside of a study might have good outcomes, but no one can say anything with any certainty about what caused the outcome, could be chance or confounding variables or that the drug is actually efficacious at treating the symptoms. If doctors just throw drugs at an illness and we see a pattern that one is promising, we still can't say that it's effective, but we would have anecdotal evidence that might lead to a study being done (treatment v. control).

Right, I said insights, not certainty. Right now, more insight into what helps would be great. Given the worldwide scale of this, we have enough patients to get some info, IF we can coordinate well enough to do so. We'd need to classify patients according to say, age, pre-exisiting conditions, time since onset of symptoms, which symptoms they have, severity of the illness, etc etc as well as what treatments they receive. Given that we have 2.5 million cases worldwide, if we could collect that kind of data it very well could point in the direction of what works or doesn't, IF we had the right information collected, and shared it. 

[HeartString]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/hydroxychloroquine-veterans-study/index.html
 

 

has anyone seen this study?  It had a control group and showed that patients using hydroxychloroquine we’re no better off and actually were somewhat more likely to die.  
 

 

In the study of 368 patients, 97 patients who took hydroxychloroquine had a 27.8% death rate. The 158 patients who did not take the drug had an 11.4% death rate

[EmseB]

56 minutes ago, Cnew02 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/hydroxychloroquine-veterans-study/index.html
 

 

has anyone seen this study?  It had a control group and showed that patients using hydroxychloroquine we’re no better off and actually were somewhat more likely to die.  
 

 

In the study of 368 patients, 97 patients who took hydroxychloroquine had a 27.8% death rate. The 158 patients who did not take the drug had an 11.4% death rate

I am not that well versed on medical literature, but it seems like it is retrospective and not randomized or controlled? Does that make a difference?

[Laura Corin]

Covid19 and frailty

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/frailty

 

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Laura Corin

[Ausmumof3]

18 hours ago, Dreamergal said:

I saw this yesterday. I did not read it in depth, but the doctor who mislead the president was arrested, I am not exactly sure why. I did not look into it, only saw the headline. 

Now there is also this, Daniel Day Kim (Lost and Hawaii 5-0) had COVID and hydrochloroquine as treatment. He said this.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/22/daniel-dae-kim-credits-hydroxychloroquine-coronavi/

Rita Wilson said this

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/tom-hanks-coronavirus-rita-wilson-recovery-chloroquine-trump-side-effects-covid-a9464681.html

So I really don't know what is going on. Is it a cure ? Will they be using it ? Will they eliminate it because of side effects ? If it is a cure for malaria what about side effects for it ? 

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-scientific-studies-research?__twitter_impression=true
 

this is a short very readable overview of all the studies so far.  My takeaway is that we don’t have a definitive answer yet.  Seems like if it does help it’s certainly not going to be a miracle drug.  

[Ausmumof3]

Years of life lost study for COVID deaths.

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-75

[Laura Corin]

Vaccine tests start

BBC News - Coronavirus: First patients injected in UK vaccine trial
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52394485

 

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Laura Corin

[Ausmumof3]

This may be a dumb question but if cats can be infected is there any chance they were the missing intermediate host between bat and human?

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-coronavirus-fda-approves-trial-for-drug-to-treat-coronavirus-20200323-cuwac5zw7vguddbj6nhoexuw3a-story.html
 

Tocilizumab- this was shared on the giant thread but I thought it was worth sharing here.  One of the other board members knew someone who received it and improved a lot.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[ktgrok]

The heat and humidity thing will be good for say, packages and mail. I don't think it will help in general person to person transmission in the USA because of widespread air conditioning. Stores, businesses, schools and a lot of homes will not be at 95 degrees and 80% humidity. And that is where people spend their time. 

But I would be happy to not worry about my packages, etc if I just let them sit outside for a while before coming in. And it would make outdoor spaces a lot safer, although kids face to face on a playground would still have a decent chance of spreading it if they are right there together. But at least you'd know it would be safe to hike, etc. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Ktgrok

[Pen]

On 4/22/2020 at 9:52 AM, Cnew02 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/hydroxychloroquine-veterans-study

On 4/22/2020 at 9:52 AM, Cnew02 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/21/health/hydroxychloroquine-veterans-study/index.html
 

 

has anyone seen this study?  It had a control group and showed that patients using hydroxychloroquine we’re no better off and actually were somewhat more likely to die.  
 

 

In the study of 368 patients, 97 patients who took hydroxychloroquine had a 27.8% death rate. The 158 patients who did not take the drug had an 11.4% death rate

/index.html
 

 

has anyone seen this study?  It had a control group and showed that patients using hydroxychloroquine we’re no better off and actually were somewhat more likely to die.  
 

 

In the study of 368 patients, 97 patients who took hydroxychloroquine had a 27.8% death rate. The 158 patients who did not take the drug had an 11.4% death rate

 

 

~ only ~ 26.6 % of the of the non hydroxychloroquine cohort had  lower than normal pulse Oximeter levels   (Almost 75% had normal levels as 95 % or higher.) 

~42.5 % of the Hydroxychloroquine plus Azithromycin cohort had lower than normal pulse zOximeter levels

~ 37.1 % of the hydroxychloroquine alone cohort had lower than normal  levels. 

That’s a significant study flaw. Imo. 

I would expect the people with normal O2 levels to mostly do okay regardless of treatment so having the no Hydroxychloroquine group start with 75% having normal lung function means that doing far better in final outcome would certainly be expected.

any math person ( @square_25 ? ) able to take this on as what would be the expectation after adjusting for that huge discrepancy in sickness level?  

 

[BeachGal]

3 hours ago, Plum said:

Slide from DHS study on sunlight from today’s press conference. Fir whatever reason Fox is the only one I can see slides on. 
 

If you want something to read, the DHS Master Question List gets updated weekly. It’s everything they are working on with results. There’s tidbits in there like 

<snip>

• A blood-cleaning device has been approved by the FDA under Emergency Use Authorization to filter cytokines from severely ill COVID-19 patients.154

<snip>

 

I snipped out some of your post but noticed that the CytoSorb has finally been approved here in the US! This is going to be a fantastic device for Covid and other health problems. It's very cool and will be interesting to find out how well it works as hospitals begin using it to treat cytokine storm in Covid patients in the US.

An article from IEEE magazine (electrical engineering mag) discussing how it works. The CytoSorb was approved by the FDA shortly after the article.

@Ausmumof3 Also, some here have mentioned tocilizumab (Actemra), a drug that tamps down IL-6. There's a paragraph near the bottom if you're interested.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-human-os/biomedical/devices/blood-filtration-tech-removes-harmful-cytokines-covid19-patients

Quote

 

According to Chan, CytoSorb is approved in the European Union as a cytokine filter. He says it’s been used to date in some 80,000 treatments across 58 countries “to treat life-threatening complications such as sepsis, lung failure, and potentially fatal low blood pressure, often called shock.” (He points out many patients with severe COVID-19 have been dying from some of the same causes.)

He says CytoSorb has also been used in more than 70 critically-ill COVID-19 patients in Italy, China, Germany, and France. Clinical data is not yet available on these cases, though Chan describes what has been reported back to him is “preliminary positive results in terms of controlling cytokine storm, improving lung function that has helped patients get off of mechanical ventilation, and reversing shock.”

Not yet approved for use in the United States, CytoSorb had already been in line for consideration with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for cardiac surgeries prior to the coronavirus outbreak.

But COVID-19 has now dialed up global attention on cytokine storms—and any effective therapies that could treat the sometimes deadly coronavirus-induced condition.

“This is a fascinating idea,” said Jessica Manson, consultant rheumatologist and honorary senior lecturer at University College London Hospital. She is one of six co-authors of a 13 March letter to the journal The Lancet arguing that doctors need to be aware of so-called cytokine storm syndrome when treating critical COVID-19 patients.

Manson is careful to point out that fighting cytokine storms may only be relevant for a subgroup of critical COVID-19 patients. Her team’s letter to The Lancet argues that any patient with a severe case of COVID-19 should be lab tested for “hyperinflammation.” This test would be completely separate from a coronavirus test. 

If a severe COVID-19 patient has markers for hyper-inflamed lungs, other organs, or similar conditions, her letter argues, cytokine storm therapies may need to be considered. She says one approved therapy is the drug tocilizumab, a.k.a. Actemra (which targets the cytokine IL-6). In fact, as of Monday, the FDA has launched Phase III trials of tocilizumab for treating COVID-19 pneumonia.

Chan says most pharmaceutical cytokine storm treatments target individual cytokines. Whereas CytoSorb, he says, targets some 100 different cytokines that normally help orchestrate the body’s immune response to infection and injury. 

 

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by BeachGal
shout out to Ausmumof3

[BeachGal]

Also, gotta leave you guys with this preprint from China. David Sinclair mentioned that he thought China would have the first successful vaccine and that may be! It's a little too soon to say if it really, really works but for now, it appears their vaccine is looking promising. Only time will tell but I'd say this is good news. 🍻

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/covid-19-vaccine-protects-monkeys-new-coronavirus-chinese-biotech-reports#

Quote

 

For the first time, one of the many COVID-19 vaccines in development has protected an animal, rhesus macaques, from infection by the new coronavirus, scientists report. The vaccine, an old-fashioned formulation consisting of a chemically inactivated version of the virus, produced no obvious side effects in the monkeys, and human trials began on 16 April.

Researchers from Sinovac Biotech, a privately held Beijing-based company, gave two different doses of their COVID-19 vaccine to a total of eight rhesus macaque monkeys. Three weeks later, the group introduced SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, into the monkeys’ lungs through tubes down their tracheas, and none developed a full-blown infection.

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by BeachGal

[PrincessMommy]

@Plum  - what is the website you check to find the pdf file.  This is very helpful information to have.   I'd like to keep up to date with it week to week.

 

[mathnerd]

Moderna's Covid-19 vaccine has moved into 2nd Round of Clinical Trial. This means that they did not find anything concerning in the 1st round of the Clinical Trial! Which is some good news! And for those wondering, the first round of this trial was started in Seattle almost a month ago with volunteers.

The mRNA vaccine is a new type of technology, where the vaccine contains a section of messenger RNA that codes for a protein associated with the virus. The vaccine is injected into a person and the mRNA moves into the test subject’s cells, where the cells then churn out the protein. The body’s immune system should then treat the protein like the virus and attack it, developing an immune response that it will then use if it comes into contact with the actual virus.

https://www.biospace.com/article/moderna-vaccine-clinical-trial-moves-into-2nd-round-of-dosing/

 

[Ausmumof3]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus?__twitter_impression=true
 

french scientists are trialling nicotine patches after observing that the percentage of coronavirus positive people who were smokers was lower than a similar age group in the general population.  Note they are not recommending taking up smoking.

[PrincessMommy]

@Plum  -  Thanks!  It wasn't just me having trouble finding it.  I thought perhaps you had a link easily on hand.  Thanks for doing the hunting.... 

 

I am curious does anyone know why this falls under "Homeland Security" and not CDC or some other?

Edited April 24, 2020 by PrincessMommy

[Pam in CT]

re protocol for formal studies with "control groups" in cases like this one where no treatment at all would be unethical --

18 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

Vaccine tests start

BBC News - Coronavirus: First patients injected in UK vaccine trial
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52394485

 

This is speaking of a vaccine, not a treatment, but the principle is the same.  The control group doesn't have not get NO treatment (i.e. what we typically think of as "placebo").  The control group gets "standard treatment" (i.e., the existing, already-approved drug or protocol).  But the trial group and the control group don't know which they're in.

From the article (about a new vaccine that Oxford University is beginning to trial):

Quote

Two volunteers were injected, the first of more than 800 people recruited for the study.

Half will receive the Covid-19 vaccine, and half a control vaccine which protects against meningitis but not coronavirus.

The design of the trial means volunteers will not know which vaccine they are getting, though doctors will.

Elisa Granato, one of the two who received the jab, told the BBC: "I'm a scientist, so I wanted to try to support the scientific process wherever I can."

The vaccine was developed in under three months by a team at Oxford University. Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at the Jenner Institute, led the pre-clinical research.

(As an aside, the gold-standard for US Phase 3 drug trials, for normal drugs in non-emergency situations, is that the doctors ALSO do not know who's in the control and who's in the experiment group... because that too can be a confounding factor.  But there are all sorts of things that necessarily go differently in circumstances like these.)

[PrincessMommy]

@Plum - thank you so much!

 

[Pen]

11 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

Retrospective studies are basically a disaster. It's not a control group if it's not randomized, really, and what happened here, if I remember correctly (I'm not looking over the data right now, just going off of what I've seen before), is that a doctor had discretion about whether to try this therapy. Unsurprisingly, the sickest patients got the treatment, because people are more willing to try untested therapies on people who are already badly off... And since the groups aren't comparable, you can't really say anything using the different outcomes between them. 

Wasn't there also a randomized study somewhere that had to be discontinued due to adverse effects in the treatment group? 

 

I don’t know.

 

https://presse.inserm.fr/lancement-dun-essai-clinique-europeen-contre-le-covid-19/38737/

seems to announce the start of a study of several treatments 

“

• soins standards
• soins standards plus remdesivir,
• soins standards plus lopinavir et ritonavir,
• soins standards plus lopinavir, ritonavir et interféron beta
• soins standards plus hydroxy-chloroquine. “

It was to be with significant numbers of patients in more than one country, and had sounded like a good study ( though most info is in French so 🤷‍♀️ as it is more than my Grench is up to) but I have not heard if there have been results.  

 

Afaik (last I heard or read) Netherlands still seems to be using Chloroquine for severe cases —and I heard was guarding their pharmaceutical company that makes Chloroquine. 

[Kanin]

5 hours ago, Pam in CT said:

Vaccine tests start

BBC News - Coronavirus: First patients injected in UK vaccine trial
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52394485

I just read about this. They say, if it works, that a vaccine could be available to some of the public by September! 

[Pam in CT]

re Oxford Vaccine Group efforts:

49 minutes ago, Mainer said:

I just read about this. They say, if it works, that a vaccine could be available to some of the public by September! 

 

Mmmm, that would be *fantastic* ... and may derive from this sentence in the BBC article

Quote

 
Scientists there hope to have one million doses ready by September, and to dramatically scale up manufacturing after that, should the vaccine prove effective.

 

But in context it sounds more like that would be for the equivalent of what would be, here in the US, a "phase 3 trial," not general availability...

Quote

The vaccine researchers are prioritising the recruitment of local healthcare workers into the trial as they are more likely than others to be exposed to the virus.
A larger trial, of about 5,000 volunteers, will start in the coming months and will have no age limit.

...and if so, vaccine for clinical trial would unlikely for several reasons to be available here in the US.  

 

I am DEFINITELY not a scientist, but the process for making this vaccine, which involves removing a different virus from chimpanzees and modifying it, sounds sufficiently complex that ramping it to massive scale, globally, would be quite challenging.

 If immunity holds, which is the baseline premise of both vaccine hopes and natural "herd immunity" hopes; and if this particular vaccine provides immunity. Two major IFs.

(Which is not to be pessimistic -- I hold pretty high hopes for a vaccine.  I'd be cautious about counting on it by fall, though.