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gardenmom5

By gardenmom5,
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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

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5 cases now today and we are going into lockdown from 6pm. 5 reasons to leave home, essential clothes and food, essential work, exercise (limited), medical care and compassionate grounds.
 

Likely there will be more as it’s delta strain confirmed and transmission occurred at a cafe in town.  Sorry I haven’t updated much as as I usually do but I’m switching between a lot going on here at home as well as trying to keep an eye on what’s going on.  Most of the exposure locations are local to us and places we go often so I’m keeping an eye on them.

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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Sorry about your lockdown, @Ausmumof3

I feel guilty as a Sydneysider. 

Hopefully you will be ok re exposure sites. We've had a few near misses. 

Well, we exported the last lot to Melbourne so I guess it goes around.  Hoping so, too, so far we’ve been really lucky as it’s places we would have been except for the school holidays changing the routine.

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Melissa Louise

Melissa Louise

Posted
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6 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

I can hardly believe it

 yet another removalist truck has spread Covid within NSW.

 this will be the third time

 

It's not surprising - most of these guys, if they don't work, they don't get paid. 

Of course they've done the wrong thing, but it's easy to see why. 

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TCB

TCB

Posted
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2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

CDC raises COVID warning for U.K. to highest level, urges Americans to avoid travel (msn.com)

Crazy that the UK is taking all restrictions away.  

It does seem crazy, but then I keep thinking that it’s just like here in my state, crazy numbers of cases and no restrictions whatsoever, add to that a huge resistance to taking precautions as a personal responsibility plus a vaccine rate that is a 1/3 of the UK. Then I think maybe it’s not so crazy as I think. According to my family in the UK a lot of people there are continuing to be cautious, and, of course, so many have been vaccinated.

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mommyoffive

mommyoffive

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3 minutes ago, TCB said:

It does seem crazy, but then I keep thinking that it’s just like here in my state, crazy numbers of cases and no restrictions whatsoever, add to that a huge resistance to taking precautions as a personal responsibility plus a vaccine rate that is a 1/3 of the UK. Then I think maybe it’s not so crazy as I think. According to my family in the UK a lot of people there are continuing to be cautious, and, of course, so many have been vaccinated.

Oh yeah I know we are no better.  I just wish countries would learn from each other.  It didn't work out well for us, now isn't the time to dial things back.

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TCB

TCB

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3 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Oh yeah I know we are no better.  I just wish countries would learn from each other.  It didn't work out well for us, now isn't the time to dial things back.

I think the politicians have decided to go for herd immunity whether by vaccine or disease. I’m just hoping the large number vaccinated makes a difference and helps the NHS keep afloat.

Today I feel very fatalistic about it all. I’m just hoping my elderly parents stay safe so I can see them at least one more time. They are vaccinated and being very careful so it’s definitely possible.

As far as where I live goes, who knows. I’m going to try and stick it out for now, but I’ve definitely started thinking about a different line of work. There are now anti vax, conspiracy follower families verbally abusing people trying to help their loved ones. How did we sink to this level? It seems hard to think of the future.

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catz

catz

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25 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

India's COVID Deaths Could Be 10 Times Higher Than Country's Official Toll: Report (msn.com)

This would not surprise me at all having a DH talking to people in India daily and having travelled to that part of the world.  I actually think it's a bit weird and disingenuous that media reports 3rd world country numbers like they're reliable.  Heck, I don't think the US numbers are consistent and reliable across the board.  Testing levels and willingness are all over the place. 

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TravelingChris

TravelingChris

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1 minute ago, FuzzyCatz said:

This would not surprise me at all having a DH talking to people in India daily and having travelled to that part of the world.  I actually think it's a bit weird and disingenuous that media reports 3rd world country numbers like they're reliable.  Heck, I don't think the US numbers are consistent and reliable across the board.  Testing levels and willingness are all over the place. 

And all the countries like Iran, North Korea, Russia and China for example are lying too.

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Tenaj

Tenaj

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Bangladesh is having a surge but lifted restrictions for 10 days to allow the celebration of Eid.  I'm expecting things to get really bad there, really fast 🙁. They are going on a strict lockdown on the 23rd for two weeks but with all the holiday traveling allowed this week, I'm not sure that will help.

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SoCal_Bear

SoCal_Bear

Posted
Posted (edited)

This is a cost no one has really been talking about...how many children have lost their parent/primary caregiver. The disproportionate impact on families of color...and the long term impact for this children's futures.

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/nearly-120-000-children-us-100606407.html

 

Edited by calbear
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regentrude

regentrude

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Okay, I just read this article, and I am scared.  I don't know who this guy is or if he's remotely trustworthy, but the logic is, well, logical.  @Not_a_Number or @regentrude, could you guys look at the math?  https://stephendinan.substack.com/p/why-we-are-headed-for-a-brutal-fall?r=3ziav&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

sorry, I don't have the mental capacity to figure out what he's calculating.
 

But his conclusion that things will get much worse makes perfect sense, seeing how low the vax rates are, how little precautions there are, and what trajectories we're heading on. In my state, things are as bad as in January.

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mommyoffive

mommyoffive

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7 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Okay, I just read this article, and I am scared.  I don't know who this guy is or if he's remotely trustworthy, but the logic is, well, logical.  @Not_a_Number or @regentrude, could you guys look at the math?  https://stephendinan.substack.com/p/why-we-are-headed-for-a-brutal-fall?r=3ziav&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=twitter

Yep.  I read today the CDC said Delta is now 83% of new cases.  So pretty spot on.  I think this has been thought what was going to happen.  I feel like it is just coming faster than what was out a few weeks ago that said we were going to be in for a bad fall and winter.  Now it seems like summer is getting scarier.  

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SoCal_Bear

SoCal_Bear

Posted
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@Terabith I read it...I'm not scared per se. Concerned that we are taking precautions. Pretty much glad I made the trip back to see family a month ago. We never stopped masking and taking precautions either. Making changes while keeping an eye on the risks based on the size of the group. I keep going back to this to help me. My decisions are a bit different for my vax'd son and my unvax'd daughter. There are some global areas added to this now.

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/



 

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SoCal_Bear

SoCal_Bear

Posted
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This is the guy's bio:

Stephen Dinan, a bestselling author, social entrepreneur and visionary political strategist, is the founder and CEO of The Shift Network, a leading global provider of online transformational courses and trainings. He was previously a senior staffer for both the Institute of Noetic Sciences (IONS) and Esalen Institute. At IONS he was the driving force behind the Shift in Action program; and, at Esalen he directed and helped to create the Center for Theory and Research—a think tank for scholars, researchers, and teachers to explore human potential frontiers. Stephen is the author of the bestselling book Sacred America, Sacred World: Fulfilling Our Mission in Service to All (Hampton Roads) and Radical Spirit (New World Library). He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a master’s in East-West Psychology from the California Institute of Integral Studies. Stephen is also a member of the prestigious Transformational Leadership Council and Evolutionary Leaders groups. He resides in the San Francisco Bay Area with his family.

 

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regentrude

regentrude

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-20/nsw-lockdown-needs-to-run-to-september-for-delta-cases-to-drop/100307698

Five more weeks of lockdown to go, according to this modelling - if we're lucky. 

That sucks - but at least your government is trying to do something. And aiming at cases to fall below 5? Ambitious. Meanwhile, in my state, we have 1400+ new cases daily and no restrictions whatsoever. It is truly mindboggling.

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melmichigan

melmichigan

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1 hour ago, calbear said:

@Terabith I read it...I'm not scared per se. Concerned that we are taking precautions. Pretty much glad I made the trip back to see family a month ago. We never stopped masking and taking precautions either. Making changes while keeping an eye on the risks based on the size of the group. I keep going back to this to help me. My decisions are a bit different for my vax'd son and my unvax'd daughter. There are some global areas added to this now.

https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/



 

I don't see as much value in this map anymore because so much has changed with regards to testing and reporting.  

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TravelingChris

TravelingChris

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1 hour ago, calbear said:

This is the guy's bio:

Stephen Dinan, a bestselling author, social entrepreneur and visionary political strategist, is the founder and CEO of The Shift Network, a leading global provider of online transformational courses and trainings. He was previously a senior staffer for both the Institute of Noetic Sciences (IONS) and Esalen Institute. At IONS he was the driving force behind the Shift in Action program; and, at Esalen he directed and helped to create the Center for Theory and Research—a think tank for scholars, researchers, and teachers to explore human potential frontiers. Stephen is the author of the bestselling book Sacred America, Sacred World: Fulfilling Our Mission in Service to All (Hampton Roads) and Radical Spirit (New World Library). He is a graduate of Stanford University and holds a master’s in East-West Psychology from the California Institute of Integral Studies. Stephen is also a member of the prestigious Transformational Leadership Council and Evolutionary Leaders groups. He resides in the San Francisco Bay Area with his family.

 

Well that resume doesn't sound like he really knows much but is guessing

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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

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46 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-20/nsw-lockdown-needs-to-run-to-september-for-delta-cases-to-drop/100307698

Five more weeks of lockdown to go, according to this modelling - if we're lucky. 

 

We are at a strict level of lockdown with cases below five. But I guess it’s unknown/unlinked cases that’s the real worry.

We had one more overnight so at six cases now.

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Melissa Louise

Melissa Louise

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2 hours ago, regentrude said:

That sucks - but at least your government is trying to do something. And aiming at cases to fall below 5? Ambitious. Meanwhile, in my state, we have 1400+ new cases daily and no restrictions whatsoever. It is truly mindboggling.

We only have just over 10% of people vaccinated, and no recommended vaccines available for most under 30's, so not much choice...though we have our own 'let it rip' contingent. 

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Terabith

Terabith

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2 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

Well that resume doesn't sound like he really knows much but is guessing

Right, his resume is definitely not epidemiology.  But as we know from the Hive, there are lots of people who might not have a degree in something who have developed expertise.   

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Jean in Newcastle

Jean in Newcastle

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8 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Right, his resume is definitely not epidemiology.  But as we know from the Hive, there are lots of people who might not have a degree in something who have developed expertise.   

I will be 100% consistent with what I have said about  any “expert”. Unless you are an actual medical expert in virology or epidemiology then I don’t give them any more credence than a well read WTM board member. I may agree or disagree with their opinion but they aren’t a reputable expert on the subject. 

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Not_a_Number

Not_a_Number

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3 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I will be 100% consistent with what I have said about  any “expert”. Unless you are an actual medical expert in virology or epidemiology then I don’t give them any more credence than a well read WTM board member. I may agree or disagree with their opinion but they aren’t a reputable expert on the subject. 

Of course, sometimes it's not clear you do want the experts. I mean, you do if you want a precise narrow view, but this pandemic has required shifting and quick thinking as much as anything... 

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Jean in Newcastle

Jean in Newcastle

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7 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Of course, sometimes it's not clear you do want the experts. I mean, you do if you want a precise narrow view, but this pandemic has required shifting and quick thinking as much as anything... 

I don’t think that it’s fair to say that someone isn’t qualified if they seem wonky but accept someone else who isn’t really qualified just because we like what they say. 

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Not_a_Number

Not_a_Number

Posted
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18 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I don’t think that it’s fair to say that someone isn’t qualified if they seem wonky but accept someone else who isn’t really qualified just because we like what they say. 

No, I wasn't arguing that we should! It was kind of an unrelated comment to the discussion of the specific guy. Just random musing -- honestly, I've found a few fellow Hive members more reliable than the average expert, mostly because they have a broader view. 

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Terabith

Terabith

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26 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

No, I wasn't arguing that we should! It was kind of an unrelated comment to the discussion of the specific guy. Just random musing -- honestly, I've found a few fellow Hive members more reliable than the average expert, mostly because they have a broader view. 

Yeah, I have been impressed by the Hive's conclusions on covid and how they have almost all arrived (with sources cited) weeks before official sources have concluded it, including about the prevalence of some relatively rare side effects.  Frankly, I think the Hive collectively may spend more time reading journal articles than the average researcher, too.  

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Not_a_Number

Not_a_Number

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4 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Yeah, I have been impressed by the Hive's conclusions on covid and how they have almost all arrived (with sources cited) weeks before official sources have concluded it, including about the prevalence of some relatively rare side effects.  Frankly, I think the Hive collectively may spend more time reading journal articles than the average researcher, too.  

And they definitely spend more time reading other Hive members' research 😉 . I do think that having a community of engaged, interested people to talk to can be super helpful. 

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Not_a_Number

Not_a_Number

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Yeah, I have been impressed by the Hive's conclusions on covid and how they have almost all arrived (with sources cited) weeks before official sources have concluded it, including about the prevalence of some relatively rare side effects.  Frankly, I think the Hive collectively may spend more time reading journal articles than the average researcher, too.  

Which side effects are you thinking of, by the way? 

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Terabith

Terabith

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5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Which side effects are you thinking of, by the way? 

Cardiomyopathy, I think?  Though I think there was something maybe even rarer than that that was kinda trivial and then weeks later I found a Med Page press release about the data on it.  I can't remember, honestly.

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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted

110 cases for NSW

22 for VIC

1 for SA.

Delta does seem to move decidedly faster even what strict measures in place numbers are stable not dropping. That may reflect the difference between the way the public interpret the situation this time around. Moving average worldwide is back over 500,000 with a definite uptick toward a 3rd wave.  Israel had 1491 cases which is highest since back in March though deaths seem to be staying low which seems positive for vaccination!

NYT has an article showing J&J performed significantly worse than Pfizer etc again delta and worse than their own study showed.  It’s paywalled for me so if anyone has access feel free to detail more.  The study (pre-print only) is also linked via the daily mail article but I don’t have time to wade through it right now but let me know if you have any thoughts.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9807911/One-shot-Johnson-Johnson-COVID-19-vaccine-lesseffective-against-Delta-variant.html

 

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Ausmumof3

Ausmumof3

Posted
Posted

from ABC

@Not_a_Number - re outdoor transmission (sorry about the huge font)
 

VIC: AAMI park exposure site of particular concern

As we heard a short time ago, two of today's new cases are linked to AAMI park, and were both seated within "two or three rows" of the index case.

Professor Sutton says while that's not uncommon indoors, for it to occur outdoors is "of some concern".

"If you are sitting in zone two, sections 22, 23 or 24, you need to be quarantining right now," he said.

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