wuhan - coronavirus

[8filltheheart]

15 minutes ago, pitterpatter said:

Anyone have domestic vacation plans within the next two weeks? We have a five-day trip to Orlando booked starting March 7th. We are flying from Missouri. Airline tickets are nonrefundable. We are planning one day at the Magic Kingdom, one day at Kennedy Space Center, and the others at less-crowded venues. I will be traveling with a healthy 12-year-old and a 42-year-old immunosuppressed husband. Do you think it's still safe to travel? Anyone else vacationing in the near future?

Ours is supposed to be 9 days overlapping yours. We are struggling with the decision. Southeast to CA.

[Ausmumof3]

I guess with the domestic travel the biggest thing to think about is if you will be ok if for some reason you get caught up being away for an extra week or two if for some reason you can’t get home.  If that’s going to cause significant hardship it may be worth cancelling but if it would just be an inconvenience you could still go?  I guess that’s how I’d be thinking.

 

[BeachGal]

This thread is long. Maybe we should do a separate one where we talk about things we could do to prevent infection and cytokine storm. (There’s a lot.) What says the hive? 🐝 

[Ausmumof3]

It occurred to me with the Middle East spread that this could end up in Syria?  Or refugee camps.  That could be pretty horrendous.

[Shoeless]

8 hours ago, Katy said:

You could probably boil any clothes if you were concerned about it, or even just throw them in the dryer on a hot/high setting for an hour.  Obviously some natural fibers (silk, wool, etc) would get ruined but I would imagine most cotton would be fine.  It might shrink a bit or get more stiff temporarily.

Alternatively you could color test polyester clothes.  Many of them can be bleached with no effect.

 

I realized I was overthinking this. Lysol spray would probably be fine and it's readily available. 

[Ausmumof3]

54 new cases in Italy.  2 earlier cases were false positives?

8 new cases in Germany.

[BeachGal]

Okay, let’s start a new thread to discuss all the things we can do to stay well. 😁

Edited February 26, 2020 by BeachGal

[YaelAldrich]

1 hour ago, RootAnn said:

The reports quotes here & available elsewhere all state that monitoring temps is pretty much worthless. It isn't a useful way to monitor for the disease. Just FYI.

I'm a bit aghast at how "behind" the CDC is about this whole outbreak. But whatever. Don't want to panic people. SMH.

All the reports I have read say AIRPORT screening temperature checks don't work.  I totally believe that.  I have taken ibuprofen an hour or two before I get off the plane to Japan (and SIngapore) if I don't feel well (well, before COVID-19 that is) and we come upon the infrared temperature screeners.  What I'm doing is recommended by the CDC, WHO, and everyone else.  I am taking my DH's temperature twice a day (not with a temp "gun") and if there is any hint of a fever, then I call our good friend in infectious diseases at Harvard Med School/BIDMC hospital and do what he says.

Yes, the CDC has to balance public safety and public health (and politics - oops, did I say that?).  It's not fair.

Edited February 26, 2020 by YaelAldrich

[prairiewindmomma]

YA—have you seen the chart of average temperatures over the disease course? No temp until day 4, and then it was something like 99.5? You might try to find that.

———-

At this point, I really do not trust my local health department who tells me there is no covid-19 in the area. They don’t know that, because they are not testing. What they could tell me is that there is no influx of pneumonia patients or that admissions numbers are holding steady. They aren’t saying that either. I 100% believe there is low lying disease activity somewhere here in the US. We just haven’t seen that groundswell of cases yet.

[Garga]

36 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

Okay, let’s start a new thread to discuss all the things we can do to stay well. 😁

If you do start a new thread,  can you post a link to the new thread here?

 

I was thinking of brainstorming with everyone how to plan if the adults in the house are terribly sick and have to go to a hospital for treatment—what should be done to prepare for that?  Have a backpack of stuff in it to grab and go?  Or at least a list of what to stuff into a backpack if the need arose.  What should be in the backpack?  Maybe a list of all meds we take, insurance info, some snack food?  A book (or kindle) to read?  Chargers for the phone?  Have some plans in place on what to do with the kids?  Bring our own bottles of cough syrup??

If we were so sick we’d need to go to the hospital, we wouldn’t be thinking in the moment of what to bring or what to do with the kids.  (Or pets!)  We’d want to have already done the thinking ahead of time.  A few posts here lightly talked about this, but didn’t explore the idea much (other than, it’s ok to bring half a cow, as long as there will be a freezer on the other end of your trip.  😄 )

Maybe these questions should be on a new thread.  @BeachGal, if you start a new thread, can I post those questions on there, too?  Or should I start a new one?

 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Garga

[Ausmumof3]

Lol we need four threads

current location updates

Shelter in place plans

bugout plans 

keep healthy strategies 

feeling quite the prepper here 

[Ausmumof3]

Link for current press conference with trump and CDC.  Not sure if it will work correctly 

 

[alewife]

1 hour ago, pitterpatter said:

Anyone have domestic vacation plans within the next two weeks? We have a five-day trip to Orlando booked starting March 7th. We are flying from Missouri. Airline tickets are nonrefundable. We are planning one day at the Magic Kingdom, one day at Kennedy Space Center, and the others at less-crowded venues. I will be traveling with a healthy 12-year-old and a 42-year-old immunosuppressed husband. Do you think it's still safe to travel? Anyone else vacationing in the near future?

Both of my college kids are flying out to CA for 10 days with their college teams in March.  I was nervous about them flying, but with the recent surge in cases in different parts of the world, I don't think this is going to be contained and restricting their travel is not going to make a difference.  

My husband and I booked a trip yesterday to fly to Club Med next week.  

My oldest son and his roommate usually have no food in their apartment.  I convinced my son to get in some food in the case of a quarantine.  He and his friend think I am nuts, but I am relieved that he listened to me.  

[Arcadia]

6 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I didn’t think we could use them as a model in an official way.  More like how we can choose to use Singapore math.  

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/covid-19-coronavirus-scenarios-get-worse-mitigation-pandemic-12471898

“SCENARIO 1: THE OUTBREAK BECOMES WORSE BUT CAN BE CONTAINED

The first scenario is one where countries manage to bring the virus under control, despite numbers growing worldwide.

...

SCENARIO 2: THE OUTBREAK BECOMES UNSTOPPABLE

A second scenario is less optimistic. By the time the outbreak has abated in China, through a mix of control efforts and the virus running out of people to infect, it has already established new foci in Europe, Asia and around the world.

More clusters start to appear in Singapore with no link to China. As more unlinked cases appear, eventually there is no point continuing travel restrictions and the government response switches from containment to mitigation.

After moving to the mitigation phase, intensive contact tracing has stopped, as cases are too numerous to track. 

...

SCENARIO 3: THE MOTHER OF PANDEMICS

The third scenario outlines developments after new foci outside China keep growing and deaths begin to mount. Governments switch from trying to contain to trying to mitigate the new pandemic.

It becomes clear that the analogies to seasonal influenza were wrong, there are fewer mild cases than we thought, and a substantial fraction of infections need to be hospitalised.

...

THE RISK OF A WORSENING SITUATION HAS GROWN

The COVID-19 outbreak is an incredibly fast-moving event. Every day brings new information about the biology of the virus, how it spreads, what proportion of people are in critical condition, and new information about where in the world the virus now is.

Over the weekend we had news of large surges of yet-to-be-linked cases in Iran, Italy and South Korea. This has led experts around the world to believe that the window for limiting the epidemic to China is rapidly closing.

If COVID-19 is as transmissible here as it appears to be in China, then eventually a large-scale outbreak in Singapore will be unavoidable. Once it breaks the cordon of contact tracing, the virus will only stop when enough people have immunity through infection or vaccination.

If that should happen, our efforts now would have bought us a few months to be better prepared, for more and better information from Singapore and overseas to be available on the severity and origins of this virus, and for our doctors to have better treatment options and diagnostic measures.”

[Pen]

2 hours ago, regentrude said:

If we're talking summer, I don't think pulling the program would do much good - by that time, the virus will be worldwide and it won't make a difference whether you're in Spain or the US. All this containment by restricting movement of people only works while it's still local.

 

What is needed now  is sloooooowing.

Not containment.  (I mean true containment would have been great, but the barn doors closed after the horses were out...) 

So far as I can tell at this point the word “containment” really just means strategies to slow it down—without people coming to the conclusion you just did that if containment isn’t possible just open everything up.  

Sloooowing strategy: It’s sort of like the difference between water going over a big Hoover dam like overflow spillway versus the dam suddenly breaking.  

 

As 

@Ausmumof3 Pointed out: Ministry of Truth speak. 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Pen

[Joker]

Can't link on my phone right now but anyone else seeing California has its first case that isn't linked to travel or contact with someone who had?

[Carrie12345]

I’ve been lecturing people for weeks and now I need advice. 

We don’t have my niece and nephew yet, but the caseworker is (supposedly) trying to move things as fast as possible. It’s an inter-state case  

It’s been 3 years since they stayed here for a few months. I’m not sure what they eat these days, and don’t know their sizes. I’ve been putting off shopping for them because we’re busy rearranging the whole house to fit them and pass inspection. They could be here tomorrow or in a month. Or a tiny chance of never. 

I feel like I should just ask for their sizes and go shopping, but I was really hoping to let them mostly pick out their own stuff. But I highly doubt I’ll want to take them to stores a few more weeks from now, if it takes that long to get them!

i have no flipping idea what to do at this point!

[regentrude]

2 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

I feel like I should just ask for their sizes and go shopping, but I was really hoping to let them mostly pick out their own stuff. But I highly doubt I’ll want to take them to stores a few more weeks from now, if it takes that long to get them!

i have no flipping idea what to do at this point!

online shopping. You preselect a few stores, they could browse on the computer, and then have it shipped to your house.

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, Joker said:

Can't link on my phone right now but anyone else seeing California has its first case that isn't linked to travel or contact with someone who had?

 

yes!  No links to travel or known cases

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’ve been lecturing people for weeks and now I need advice. 

We don’t have my niece and nephew yet, but the caseworker is (supposedly) trying to move things as fast as possible. It’s an inter-state case  

It’s been 3 years since they stayed here for a few months. I’m not sure what they eat these days, and don’t know their sizes. I’ve been putting off shopping for them because we’re busy rearranging the whole house to fit them and pass inspection. They could be here tomorrow or in a month. Or a tiny chance of never. 

I feel like I should just ask for their sizes and go shopping, but I was really hoping to let them mostly pick out their own stuff. But I highly doubt I’ll want to take them to stores a few more weeks from now, if it takes that long to get them!

i have no flipping idea what to do at this point!

I reckon I’d order one or two things so they have something to get by on.  Online shopping would be a good idea provided there are no supply issues.  There is a fair bit of garment manufacturing in places other than China so this should be ok for now.  In Shanghai the larger factories are starting up though many at reduced capacity.

[TravelingChris]

1 hour ago, prairiewindmomma said:

YA—have you seen the chart of average temperatures over the disease course? No temp until day 4, and then it was something like 99.5? You might try to find that.

———-

At this point, I really do not trust my local health department who tells me there is no covid-19 in the area. They don’t know that, because they are not testing. What they could tell me is that there is no influx of pneumonia patients or that admissions numbers are holding steady. They aren’t saying that either. I 100% believe there is low lying disease activity somewhere here in the US. We just haven’t seen that groundswell of cases yet.

Exactly

[Arcadia]

11 minutes ago, Joker said:

Can't link on my phone right now but anyone else seeing California has its first case that isn't linked to travel or contact with someone who had?

@Ausmumof3 posted

local news link https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article240674471.html

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/new-case-of-novel-coronavirus-in-northern-california-cdc/2242792/

https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/amp/Coronavirus-live-updates-Trump-to-hold-news-15085591.php

[Kassia]

32 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

 

I feel like I should just ask for their sizes and go shopping, but I was really hoping to let them mostly pick out their own stuff. But I highly doubt I’ll want to take them to stores a few more weeks from now, if it takes that long to get them!

i have no flipping idea what to do at this point!

 

Do you have Walmart pick up where you just order and they bring it to your car?  Or any other grocery stores that will do that?  We have several here and live in a semi-rural area.  I like that because I don't have to go in and expose myself to all the germs.  

Oops - ETA - I thought you meant groceries.  For clothes, definitely order online! 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Kassia

[Ausmumof3]

Official numbers for China just came out with 433 new cases and 29 new deaths.

[Ausmumof3]

334 new cases in South Korea 1 total is 1595

[Pen]

2 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

YA—have you seen the chart of average temperatures over the disease course? No temp until day 4, and then it was something like 99.5? You might try to find that.

———-

At this point, I really do not trust my local health department who tells me there is no covid-19 in the area. They don’t know that, because they are not testing. What they could tell me is that there is no influx of pneumonia patients or that admissions numbers are holding steady. They aren’t saying that either. I 100% believe there is low lying disease activity somewhere here in the US. We just haven’t seen that groundswell of cases yet.

 

also in some cases there may have been no fever even longer as asymptomatic superspreaders went about their travels, sports and social events

 

[Pen]

   56 minutes ago,  Carrie12345 said: 

 

@Carrie12345 

 

I feel like I should just ask for their sizes and go shopping, but I was really hoping to let them mostly pick out their own stuff. But I highly doubt I’ll want to take them to stores a few more weeks from now, if it takes that long to get them!

i have no flipping idea what to do at this point!

Reply:

—-Totally unrelated to coronavirus, but being in a rural area and having chemical sensitivity and chronic health issues, I did online preparatory shopping for a foster child arrival in that age range .  I used places that I could tolerate the fabrics and that had excellent return policies—not necessarily the cheapest approach, but got it done.   I did have some input such as “soft” for texture  and “camo” for color.  Also a request to have a small fist size stuffed animal ready (I got two, a lion and tiger)...

Almost no going to stores was done because I don’t tolerate the chemicals in much clothing at places like Walmart nor the cleaners and fragrances at many department stores. 

 

 

 

Edited February 27, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

18 minutes ago, Plum said:

 

I lived in Suisun for a couple of years, which is right next to Travis Air Force Base. I even took a class at TAFB. That's in Solano County. I'm guessing someone walked out with it on their shoe or from the bus that brought the DP people in or some such scenario. It can't be a coincidence. 

 

Interesting!  Didn’t know about the location being right by Travis AF base

 

[Pen]

43 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Official numbers for China just came out with 433 new cases and 29 new deaths.

 

I hope the slowing down is real.  

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

 

yes!  No links to travel or known cases

 

This feels like USA version of Ministry of Truth.

It May or may not be first time. They would not have found what they didn’t previously test for.

[Arcadia]

From CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/coronavirus-fear-takes-mental-toll-in-italy-12474080

“As 50,000 people stay in lockdown in infection hotspots and tens of millions are affected by the closure of schools and other institutions, psychologists and psychiatrists say there have been concerning signs in some aspects of public behaviour.

Rome-based psychiatrist Rossella Candela points to the empty shelves in supermarkets due to panic buying as one example.

"Certain people adapt. But others react as if they were under bombardment in the Second World War," she told AFP.

The rush to buy face masks - which have now all but sold out in pharmacies in the country's north - is part of the phenomenon, she says.

The rush to buy face masks - which have now all but sold out in pharmacies in Italy's north - has been one of panic in the country. 

After the first wave of panic, there then comes a low-level permanent sense of anxiety, fed by the disruption of normal routines in many different fields.

"In our small Lombard villages, cancelling Mass is crazy, unprecedented," says Alessandra Braga, a psychotherapist in Brescia, a city in the worst-affected Lombardy region.

The closure of schools and offices means that "many people are just spending all day at home watching television programmes where people are only talking coronavirus, it's completely anxiety-inducing," says Braga, adding that she was encouraging patients "to go out, to get some air".

But, she says, "it's like an emotional epidemic, and emotions are hard to control".

FEAR AND RACISM

While authorities are trying to reassure the population, it's difficult to combat fear when one is confronted by "something intangible, invisible, like a virus," says psychologist Gabriele Zanardi in Pavia to the south of Milan.

He says that paradoxically, the most worried seem to be outside the areas most heavily affected, as they haven't experienced the reality of the outbreak.

As a result of the invisible nature of the condition, "people try to put a face to this invisible enemy, be it a Chinese person, someone with a cold," Zanardi says.

Milan's Chinatown has been deserted for three days.

In a region governed by former interior minister Matteo Salvini's far-right League, many Chinatown business owners have avoided ostracisation by closing shops and restaurants.

In Turin, after the first death from the outbreak was announced, a 40-year-old Chinese woman was attacked in the street by strangers who shouted: "You have the virus, go away or I'll kill you."

"Italy has become a fearful country," Mariella Enoc, the director of Rome's Bambino Gesu hospital told La Stampa newspaper.

"The phobias linked to this virus are getting the better of reason and scientific discourse," she said.”

[Pen]

6 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Is this a different study to the discredited one that Was being used to claim it was engineered due to the chunk of HIV like DNA?  I guess so 

 

Yes. Afaik.  The other was from outside China and was retracted under pressure, I believe.

I think it must be a chunk HIV / Ebola like RNA because Coronaviruses are RNA viruses.  

I do think it sounds suspicious for manipulation . All the more so if an RNA type virus actually has got a DNA chunk. 

[Ausmumof3]

Global Times:

Beijing reported 10 new cases of #COVID19 infections on Wednesday: local health authority

#Beijing also reported 46 new suspected cases, and one death on Wednesday. Number of new close contacts reached 84, according to Thursday's official data.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Ausmumof3
Add the rest of the info

[YaelAldrich]

1 hour ago, Pen said:

 

also in some cases there may have been no fever even longer as asymptomatic superspreaders went about their travels, sports and social events

 

Any links please? 

[Katy]

2 hours ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’ve been lecturing people for weeks and now I need advice. 

We don’t have my niece and nephew yet, but the caseworker is (supposedly) trying to move things as fast as possible. It’s an inter-state case  

It’s been 3 years since they stayed here for a few months. I’m not sure what they eat these days, and don’t know their sizes. I’ve been putting off shopping for them because we’re busy rearranging the whole house to fit them and pass inspection. They could be here tomorrow or in a month. Or a tiny chance of never. 

I feel like I should just ask for their sizes and go shopping, but I was really hoping to let them mostly pick out their own stuff. But I highly doubt I’ll want to take them to stores a few more weeks from now, if it takes that long to get them!

i have no flipping idea what to do at this point!

 

You might get a better response if you posted on the main board rather than in this thread, because there are many current or former foster parents who may have checked out of a 44 page thread.

Anyway, I would wait and ask the social worker before buying anything.  The children may have clothes from home, clothes purchased by the current foster parents with a clothing allowance, or they may have very specific taste.  Also depending on your state it's possible they'll be given an allowance for clothing when placed with you.

[Pen]

23 minutes ago, YaelAldrich said:

Any links please? 

 

No specific link to offer.  But read about the UK businessman now recovered and virus free, and the 38yo Italian afaik still in critical condition.  Both had been able to travel, attend social events, in one case go to a ski chalet, in the other apparently play soccer and enter a running race.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Pen

[importswim]

5 hours ago, pitterpatter said:

Anyone have domestic vacation plans within the next two weeks? We have a five-day trip to Orlando booked starting March 7th. We are flying from Missouri. Airline tickets are nonrefundable. We are planning one day at the Magic Kingdom, one day at Kennedy Space Center, and the others at less-crowded venues. I will be traveling with a healthy 12-year-old and a 42-year-old immunosuppressed husband. Do you think it's still safe to travel? Anyone else vacationing in the near future?

Dh is an airline pilot (Domestic) and his company hasn't provided any guidance on closures (except for some international routes through China). I'm not excited about him flying, but he's not super concerned (yet).  He's based out of a large city and has around 60 flights next month 😑. He washes his hands a lot but that's generally the only precaution he takes. He's already had the flu this season. Sigh.

I think it's hard to predict how things will be even in the next couple of weeks. The large crowds at the parks would possibly concern me with an immunosuppressed hubby. Then again, everything could be fine. I don't envy your decision. 😥

[Renai]

13 hours ago, RootAnn said:

I found out last night that some former homeschooling friends who have since moved away are in Spain right now. 😞

I think most people considered this a "Chinese disease" until the CDC's announcement the other day. I was discussing it last night with someone who deals woth the public every day. Her DH has a health situation that would put him in danger if he caught COVID-19. She might not be able to be around him at all if it gets to our area due to possibly passing it to him. We had a debate on if he'd be safer 'sheltering in place' at his work (which will require key employees to live at work if it does spread widely) or becoming a hermit at home.

Going by the conversation in our local weekend Chinese school's WeChat, some Chinese feel so close to the situation they feel the same way. Another Chinese family spoke and told her, "This is not a Chinese disease. It is affecting many others." This conversation is coming back up because the program was postponed until March 1st, and now some families want to back out because of the virus. All of their children are in public school though, and have been attending since early January. It really makes no sense (the program is only one day a week). It's almost as though the thought process is, "if enough of us Chinese people get together, the virus will appear..." There was no talking this woman out of her mindset.

 

5 hours ago, pitterpatter said:

Anyone have domestic vacation plans within the next two weeks? We have a five-day trip to Orlando booked starting March 7th. We are flying from Missouri. Airline tickets are nonrefundable. We are planning one day at the Magic Kingdom, one day at Kennedy Space Center, and the others at less-crowded venues. I will be traveling with a healthy 12-year-old and a 42-year-old immunosuppressed husband. Do you think it's still safe to travel? Anyone else vacationing in the near future?

Yeah...

I'm attending two homeschool conferences in Texas: one is March 12-14, the other is April 2-4. I'll be staying with my parents for the month. I'll be driving though (from NM), not flying. I'm trying to project what the situation will be come time for me to go. My husband isn't coming with me, so I want to prepare the house just in case something happens while I'm gone (his mother will be staying here, too, and I began to be concerned about her). There are no cases in NM as far as we know, but I don't think anyone is being tested.

 

5 hours ago, BeachGal said:

This thread is long. Maybe we should do a separate one where we talk about things we could do to prevent infection and cytokine storm. (There’s a lot.) What says the hive? 🐝 

Nooooo! I can't keep up with any more threads!

[Pen]

2 minutes ago, Renai said:

Going by the conversation in our local weekend Chinese school's WeChat, some Chinese feel so close to the situation they feel the same way. Another Chinese family spoke and told her, "This is not a Chinese disease. It is affecting many others." This conversation is coming back up because the program was postponed until March 1st, and now some families want to back out because of the virus. All of their children are in public school though, and have been attending since early January. It really makes no sense (the program is only one day a week). It's almost as though the thought process is, "if enough of us Chinese people get together, the virus will appear..." There was no talking this woman out of her mindset.

 

Yeah...

I'm attending two homeschool conferences in Texas: one is March 12-14, the other is April 2-4. I'll be staying with my parents for the month. I'll be driving though (from NM), not flying. I'm trying to project what the situation will be come time for me to go. My husband isn't coming with me, so I want to prepare the house just in case something happens while I'm gone (his mother will be staying here, too, and I began to be concerned about her). There are no cases in NM as far as we know, but I don't think anyone is being tested.

 

Nooooo! I can't keep up with any more threads!

 

I’m fine with there being another thread, but I am unlikely to repost everything I put on this thread.

[popmom]

6 hours ago, pitterpatter said:

Anyone have domestic vacation plans within the next two weeks? We have a five-day trip to Orlando booked starting March 7th. We are flying from Missouri. Airline tickets are nonrefundable. We are planning one day at the Magic Kingdom, one day at Kennedy Space Center, and the others at less-crowded venues. I will be traveling with a healthy 12-year-old and a 42-year-old immunosuppressed husband. Do you think it's still safe to travel? Anyone else vacationing in the near future?

 

If I were you, I would go. I'd be much more concerned about flu that week. You are much, much more likely to be exposed to flu than coronavirus at that point. just my 2 cents

edit to add: There are between 300,000 and 600,000 deaths annually worldwide due to the flu, but people still travel during flu season. We are complacent--much too complacent about flu. Meanwhile, there have only been approx 2900 deaths worldwide due to this novel virus. Perspective may help you decide on your travel plans.

Edited February 27, 2020 by popmom

[Ausmumof3]

57 minutes ago, YaelAldrich said:

Any links please? 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028
 

here’s one but it’s only a small study on one cluster of patients

[popmom]

I happen to go to church with the physician who heads up the health department for the most populous county in our state. This is what he had to say about this. (We've been discussing perspective versus the flu). "It is helpful to put it in perspective(number of flu deaths worldwide), and it shows how complacent people are about the flu. It’s the devil we know.
COVID-19 is scarier to people in part because it’s the devil we don’t know. It’s also scarier because:
1) It seems to be very contagious.
2) So far it has a mortality rate of about 2.3% compared to O.1% for the flu.
3) There’s no vaccine to prevent it or medicine to treat it, so far."

Does this line up with what y'all are seeing/reading?

I'm reading that in China they are using HIV drugs to treat.

Edited February 27, 2020 by popmom

[Pen]

6 hours ago, pitterpatter said:

Anyone have domestic vacation plans within the next two weeks? We have a five-day trip to Orlando booked starting March 7th. We are flying from Missouri. Airline tickets are nonrefundable. We are planning one day at the Magic Kingdom, one day at Kennedy Space Center, and the others at less-crowded venues. I will be traveling with a healthy 12-year-old and a 42-year-old immunosuppressed husband. Do you think it's still safe to travel? Anyone else vacationing in the near future?

 

I think as testing may have started on people who are sick but without obvious ties to China or travelers, more may be known before your departure time.

Traveling Domestically, I think even if there are 1000 times the number of covid19 cases nationwide that we know about,  your risk of severe illness (of any sort) is still fairly small — other than the immunocompromised husband.  

His risk is presumably larger.  Also probably good to consider what if scenarios like what if you get stuck in a conveyance with a suspect case person for and extended time? Does do health handle that? What if you could not return home when planned?

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, popmom said:

I happen to go to church with the physician who heads up the health department for the most populous county in our state. This is what he had to say about this. (We've been discussing perspective versus the flu). "It is helpful to put it in perspective(number of flu deaths worldwide), and it shows how complacent people are about the flu. It’s the devil we know.
COVID-19 is scarier to people in part because it’s the devil we don’t know. It’s also scarier because:
1) It seems to be very contagious.
2) So far it has a mortality rate of about 2.3% compared to O.1% for the flu.
3) There’s no vaccine to prevent it or medicine to treat it, so far."

Does this line up with what y'all are seeing/reading?

I'm reading that in China they are using HIV drugs to treat.

Fatality rate is closed to 3pc in Wuhan and below 1 pc outside of it I think.  But 2 - 2.5pc is the most frequently quoted figure. That’s going to be affected by the number of finished cases, age and general health is the local population and adequacy of the health service.

[Ausmumof3]

I’d say the other slightly scary thing is we don’t know potential long term effects.  There have been suggestions that it may impact fertility.  There is no studies to confirm or deny or show whether it’s a long term or short term thing, just some scientists have suggested a mechanism where that’s possible.  I also don’t know if there’s risk of long term damage to lungs etc in severe cases.

the things I personally find concerning are

- the number of young health medical staff that died

- the number of anecdotal cases that seem to have relatively low level symptoms then take a turn for the worse in the 3rd week

- the fact that our local hospital system is already a disaster in flu season.  And we already have deaths due to ambulance ramping etc

- likely to be worse here due to an aging population 

- we don’t have data from a country that we believe likely to be fully transparent

- we don’t have accurate and adequate testing 

- the number of ways it appears to be able to spread 

- the response of the Chinese government seems overkill for the reported number of deaths.  However maybe they are just as scared as we are

- the risk that fear will make us less than humane 

- the fact that our most reliable balance news source has advice to work toward a two week food supply

Edited February 27, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[Pen]

29 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Fatality rate is closed to 3pc in Wuhan and below 1 pc outside of it I think.  But 2 - 2.5pc is the most frequently quoted figure. That’s going to be affected by the number of finished cases, age and general health is the local population and adequacy of the health service.

 

37 minutes ago, popmom said:

I happen to go to church with the physician who heads up the health department for the most populous county in our state. This is what he had to say about this. (We've been discussing perspective versus the flu on FB). "It is helpful to put it in perspective(number of flu deaths worldwide), and it shows how complacent people are about the flu. It’s the devil we know.
COVID-19 is scarier to people in part because it’s the devil we don’t know. It’s also scarier because:
1) It seems to be very contagious.
2) So far it has a mortality rate of about 2.3% compared to O.1% for the flu.
3) There’s no vaccine to prevent it or medicine to treat it, so far."

Does this line up with what y'all are seeing/reading?

I'm reading that in China they are using HIV drugs to treat.

 

I think that’s the current official line by and large such as what teachers at my son’s school are saying. 

I don’t think it’s equivalent to the flu—

Not just death rate an issue

It seems to be very easily contagious including when asymptomatic and including by aerosol

Around 10-20% of the infected seem to need significant medical intervention to survive—a number which if it came in a sharp wave rather than slow and gradual could overwhelm health systems of many/most countries

And

 

Fairly Young apparently formerly fit doctors are succumbing and dying—which didn’t tend to happen with flu except in unusually bad rare flu epidemic years

 

 

or, personally, I’ve been through flu and been exposed to flu without fearing that I’ll possibly need hospital let alone die (I know it’s possible, but also btdt that it isn’t likely)— statistically on Covid-19 I have maybe a 7% chance of dying if I get it.  Can’t recall exactly. I wasn’t part of the 10% highest group, but it was fairly significant.  For flu I’m probably in a less than 0.1% death rate group personally if they were divided by age/preexisting contldition and taking into account other factors.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Pen

[Ausmumof3]

And just to add to things scaring me!

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN20L0BI?__twitter_impression=true

a woman in Japan who initially had the virus in January and was discharged as recovered on 1 Feb just tested positive again after developing chest pain and a sore throat.

almost 4 weeks later!

there have been reports of this from China but first case outside China as far as I know.  Indicates the virus may be able to lie dormant for some time and reactivate.

[Arcadia]

From CNA https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/covid19-taiwan-raises-epidemic-response-level-highest-12474922

“TAIPEI: Taiwan on Thursday (Feb 27) raised its epidemic response level to the highest as it readied a US$2 billion package to cushion the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on its export-reliant economy.

The move allows the government to tackle the virus outbreak in a much faster manner with more resources across various ministries, the official Central News Agency reported.

Premier Su Tseng-chang announced the decision in a cabinet meeting on Thursday, citing sporadic cases of community transmission on the island, which has seen 32 cases of the coronavirus and one death.

It came days after Taiwan's parliament approved a T$60 billion (US$2 billion) package to soften the impact from the virus on its economy, which includes loans for small businesses, subsidies for hard-hit tour agencies and even vouchers to spend on food in Taiwan's famous night markets.

"As the international epidemic outbreak gets more serious day by day, Taiwan needs to enhance its defence against the virus," Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said while overseeing troops tasked with disinfection on Thursday morning.

"We will integrate all government resources to fight against the threats of the coronavirus."

The island has largely suspended travel and tourism links with China to curb its spread and advised citizens against visiting South Korea.

This week Taiwan passed a bill to penalise people who violate government-mandated home quarantine orders, with those in breach possibly facing a T$2 million fine or two years in jail.”

[Paige]

2% mortality rate is not anything to be complacent about, but what is more concerning is the 10% who need to be hospitalized/have serious infections. That percent is very high and what I believe will cause the most disruption.  I played with these stats: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

It looks like(roughly) the average percent of people who have the flu and need to be hospitalized runs about 1-2%. That is at or below the mortality rate of Cov-19. The mortality rate of the flu is more like .01%. Considering the new virus seems to be spread even more easily than flu, nobody is vaccinated, and nobody has natural immunity...it's more than misleading to compare cov-19 favorably to an average flu year.

Did more math- flu mortality rate seems to vary between about .01-.1%

Edited February 27, 2020 by Paige

[Paige]

9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

And just to add to things scaring me!

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN20L0BI?__twitter_impression=true

a woman in Japan who initially had the virus in January and was discharged as recovered on 1 Feb just tested positive again after developing chest pain and a sore throat.

almost 4 weeks later!

there have been reports of this from China but first case outside China as far as I know.  Indicates the virus may be able to lie dormant for some time and reactivate.

Could it be that it is mutating like colds do to enable reinfection, or would mutation make it no longer identifiable as cov-19? I'm not sure how that works, but I've always heard we don't have vaccines against cold viruses because they mutate too quickly. Since they are in the same family, I wonder if it is behaving similarly. Here's hoping that it continues to mutate in a way that becomes less harmful to its new hosts.