So, do you believe all the recent "we are on our way to recovery" talk?

[Guest Virginia Dawn]

I'm finding it hard to swallow. I guess I really believe the financial sector is much worse off than we are hearing. I don't believe we have hit bottom yet, especially in the housing market. I read recently that some banks were beginning to put off foreclosures as long as possible so they wouldn't have to reveal the depth of their losses.

 

What do you think? Is recovery imminent? Are we "on our way" to recovery? (who knows how long we'll take to get there :). Or are we walking in the dark?

Edited July 20, 2009 by Virginia Dawn

[E_Edgerton]

NO, I think that most of this much deeper than any of us really want to believe. Unemployment is increasing, people are taking pay and hour cuts, people are still tightening the belt...as they should. I am gearing up to weather much worse in the future...however I am a bit of a pessimist when it comes to matters like this.

[joannqn]

Not at all. I think they want us to believe the economic stimulus package is working so they can move forward with other things with less uproar.

[Orthodox6]

Of course I believe the news. Our government never lies. After the government sells the Brooklyn Bridge, the U.S. shall have all the money required for complete economic recovery.

 

 

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(. . . now DON'T tell me that you fell for that nonsense !)

Edited July 18, 2009 by Orthodox6

[Sara R]

Nope. (Betcha could have guessed that, lol.)

 

All the happy talk is just the Tinkerbell economy in action. (I've also seen the happy talk referred to as "Hopium" :lol:).

 

The fundamentals of the economy haven't improved. Any "green shoots" out there are effects of the stimulus. Billions of dollars thrown at the problem ought to at least yield some "green shoots." But the bill hasn't fully come in for all of those printed dollars. I'm still waiting for the next shoe to drop.

[Harriet Vane]

In a word, no.

[Supertechmom]

NO And don't believe the soon to come lies about GM's great and mighty recovery either. My husband sells for Ford, the only one of the three who isn't on the dole. GM is now undercutting the competition by 6,000-12,000 per vehicle. :svengo:They just came out of bankruptcy, had their debt resolved, and thanks to gov bailout are underselling at great losses. WHy? How long will Ford be able to handle the consumer bleed to GM before they too go under? How long will the taxpayers be able to support GM not making any profit on vehicles? Until Ford is unstable and under?:001_huh:

 

Hubby himself lost 3 customers so far this month to Gm because who wouldn't purchase a vehicle that far under price. The other sales people have similar losses. (And yes, while there is some markup, that markup is almost all in used cars. New cars have very little wiggle room to wiggle with, much less $6,000 to cut, $600 yes, $6,000 no way.)

 

IF that is happening across the nation, GM will report huge sales increases far above the experts predictions and thus give "proof" that bailing out large corporations is great for the economy. While ignoring that it came only because the taxpayer supported selling cars at terrific losses. Even the people buying GM admit it is only because the price is just too far below realistic to not do it. THey will never get a better deal on a new car.

[Dirtroad]

No, my state has been pretty quiet & stable but we hit 10% this week.

 

When current administration was running for office, all we heard was that we had the worst economy since the Depression. How stupid do they think we are? My father in law is a depression kid.... they lived in a chicken house lined with cardboard & newspapers.... ate eggs all the time.

 

Now, the numbers are reaching the Carter years. I see more & more Dads out of work and families pulling out of things. Restaurants are offering deals out of their ears b/c people aren't going out for lunch as much, etc. Unemployment is down.... banks are extremely restrictive on new mortgage... .we have NO shoppers in our housing market..... NOPE, NADA, ZILCH improvements!

 

Hey DC.... "Don't Pee on my Leg and Tell me It is Raining".

[Retired]

Nope, I see the economy will be worse. The basic economics of printing money (trillion of new spending) and we are headed to super inflation and worse case bankrupt nation.

 

The spending has not stopped. The people have been indoctrinated into the nanny state. They want more government programs to be taken care of.

 

We will have inflation and higher taxes.

 

I also believe that with all the new programs the poor will be taken care of, the rich will take their money out of the country and the middle class as always will bear the burden of all the spending.

 

The fairy tale that this administration has sold to the public is unattainable.

[Karen in CO]

My company is planning 10% layoffs this month. My hubby is having to take two weeks without pay this summer. Unemployment is going up. Foreclosures still have far to go. AND I have heard lots of people that have stopped paying their credit cards - I think those companies are tumbling down soon so that they can get bailed out too.

 

On a brighter note - my 401k has recovered back to almost where it was a year ago so I can happily pretend that it will all be okay. At least until this quarter's layoffs and next quarters layoffs.....

[DawnM]

I believe we have just begun our economic decline. We hit the tip of the iceburg and noone wants to admit that building an economy by asking people to spend more than they make is a house of cards that is tumbling fast.

 

Dawn

[WiseOwlKnits]

I don't. I have 2 friends whose husbands have lost their job. This week. Another who will find out at the end of the month if he'll get to keep his job (his company is being bought out and they've already said they'll be letting a lot of people go). I am thankful that my DH's job seems secure. The unemployment rate here I heard a couple of days ago is at 12%. And if you listen carefully on the news, between the stories of improvement, there are stories here and there that show how things are really heading I think.

[eaglei]

Nope. Not at all.

[OnTheBrink]

Nope.

[jensway]

Uh, I am thinking NO. Might be the end of the recession, but we have further to go--maybe the start of a depression.

[LizzyBee]

No. I think the economy is going to get worse before it gets better.

[Karen sn]

No....but I desperately want to believe it. I wish I were naive.

[lea1]

No, not at all. Here is a great site. This guy knows his stuff and tells it like it is. Beware of some bad language here and there sometimes though.

[creekland]

Well, hubby is a self employed Civil Engineer who was down to VERY few projects in May and June (usually his busiest time). Just this past week he's gotten more job calls - from mostly new clients - than he did those two months. He also overheard a contractor (while at one job site) who said he had just rehired a crew due to new jobs.

 

So... it is possible.

 

What I'm afraid of is that this will be a high blip on an otherwise downward slide as fall comes and the normal 'slow' time hits. However, high blips are better than no highs at all.

 

I'm glad I feel reasonably prepared either way it goes. I wouldn't be investing in a whole lot right now. As others have stated, this is most likely a result of tons of borrowed money being tossed at the problem by the gov't - instead of real solutions. Like any massive credit card spending, the payments and interest will come back to haunt us - then if we add the cost of national healthcare in...

[Beebalm]

Absolutely not. I feel a real burden to try to inform the kiddos to without alarming them...but it's getting more alarming daily.

[Mommyof4ks]

Nope, alot of people are struggling now, and then nationalized healthcare may hit and well...I don't want to think about it. It is way too much trouble in our country at one time (very expensive and devisive trouble), but the good news is that people are starting to wake up and realize that the gov't can't save us. Finally.they.wake.up.

[mommaduck]

Nope, no, nada, do not believe the lies.

[mcconnellboys]

Statisticians have been reconfiguring how to tally unemployment (among other economic indicators) since about the time of the Nixon presidency. Unemployment numbers are actually much higher than what's shown - and have been since at least the Clinton Era.

 

Why on earth anyone with a brain would believe that printing endless streams of paper money that have no backing and circulating that will cure all ills is beyond me.....

[theresatwist]

I'm finding it hard to swallow. I guess I really believe the financial sector is much worse off than we are hearing. I don't believe we have hit bottom yet, especially in the housing market. I read recently that some banks were beginning to put off foreclosures as long as possible so they wouldn't have to reveal the depth of their losses.

 

What do you think? Is recovery eminent? Are we "on our way" to recovery? (who knows how long we'll take to get there :). Or are we walking in the dark?

 

 

I don't see it as an issue of belief. Maybe this is just me, but it seems to me the government, regardless of which party is in charge, feels this responsibility for whatever reason to increase optimism. Of course, this is a fine line to walk because you don't want to raise people's hopes only to end up disappointing. But, I do think that psychology can play a role in how an economy performs, albeit a limited one, so in one sense I understand. It is interesting the both the Bush administration and the Obama administration seems to be allergic to the "R word." We were in a recession long before anyone at the top was willing to admit it publicly. Maybe there's a personal psychological component as well? Just that realization that "Okay, we're in charge here and yet as politicians our ability to change the state of the economy in the short-term is extremely limited. Let's just tell people it's almost over." I feel like the decision to want to tell folks it's almost over is kind of like a parent calming his/her sick or injured child. You don't honestly know what the future holds, but you always paint for the child the most optimistic picture your conscience will allow.

 

Personally, I'm focused on my personal situation--saving as much as I possibly can. Not because I don't trust those on top (I don't think there's much they can do in the short-run-- it's too late), but because that's what's at least somewhat in my control.

Edited July 18, 2009 by theresatwist

[Jumping In Puddles]

No, I don't think we are on our way to recovery yet but I do find it kind of ironic that some people here ( last year), were posting that things are bad because the news keeps on reporting how bad the economy really is and the media loves to spread gloom. :glare:

[Wildiris]

No way, no how!

 

I do not think Americans will ever recover to the standard of living they once enjoyed. Just wait until those credit cards stop getting paid because people don't have the jobs or their wages are to low to meet their basic needs of food and shelter let alone shoes and tires.

 

Where are those stimulus jobs??? Are they there for already employed? It was depressing to 30 people on a call back interview for a job at Peets coffee the other day. These people were not college kids; these were well educated, older adults most likely with families to feed at home looking at a very minimum wage job that won't cover the basics.

[mommaduck]

No way, no how!

 

I do not think Americans will ever recover to the standard of living they once enjoyed. Just wait until those credit cards stop getting paid because people don't have the jobs or their wages are to low to meet their basic needs of food and shelter let alone shoes and tires.

 

Where are those stimulus jobs??? Are they there for already employed? It was depressing to 30 people on a call back interview for a job at Peets coffee the other day. These people were not college kids; these were well educated, older adults most likely with families to feed at home looking at a very minimum wage job that won't cover the basics.

 

And those places don't want to hire those of us that are older or well-educated because they can't jerk us around like the teenagers. :glare:

[Liz CA]

Same here. Dh is also professionally involved in the construction/building industry and this has been the flattest year in the 24 years he has been in the business.

 

I am afraid that we are in for a major roller coaster ride with the next few months perhaps looking better before it gets much worse.

[Janna]

But...but...but...Larry Summers says it's recovering because the search for "economic depression" is down to normal numbers on Google! I mean, if Larry Summers uses such Google numbers for his research into the economy, then by all means, Yes! Of course I believe we're almost out of it!

 

*Gag*

 

Seriously? THIS is how the top economic adviser determines whether our economy has hit bottom and we're on the way up? What a joke.

[Soph the vet]

Hmmm...highest unemployment rate in 25 years, 2.5 million jobs lost since the stimulus package was passed, cap and trade legislation that could increase energy costs by 90% and fuel costs by 70%, healthcare reform costs estimated to be unsustainable by the CBO, more homes going into foreclosure, three biggest drains on the federal budget that are all bankrupt (SS, Medicare, and Medicaid), printing money like it really does grow on trees leading to possible hyperinflation in the very near future.

 

No, I do not think we are on the way to recovery and ANYONE in Washington that says we are either thinks the American people are extremely stupid or they are smoking something or both.

[Renee in NC]

When current administration was running for office, all we heard was that we had the worst economy since the Depression. How stupid do they think we are? My father in law is a depression kid.... they lived in a chicken house lined with cardboard & newspapers.... ate eggs all the time.

 

 

Today, we have unemployment benefits that keep some level of income. There are food stamps, Medicaid, and other programs for those who have been laid off. Without those things, not only would some families be living in a chicken house lined with cardboard and newspapers with only eggs to eat, but the unemployment numbers would be even higher because those families wouldn't be spending that money at grocery stores, WalMart, what have you. Those places would lay off more people, cut hours, etc. It is a downward spiral.

 

We don't live in the same world that we did then. For that I am incredibly thankful.

[Janna]

ANYONE in Washington that says we are either thinks the American people are extremely stupid or they are smoking something or both.

 

My vote, should you want it, is both.

[Wildiris]

~Today, we have unemployment benefits that keep some level of income. There are food stamps, Medicaid, and other programs for those who have been laid off.

The self-employed do not receive any of these benefits.

 

~Without those things, not only would some families be living in a chicken house lined with cardboard and newspapers with only eggs to eat, but the unemployment numbers would be even higher because those families wouldn't be spending that money at grocery stores, WalMart, what have you. Those places would lay off more people, cut hours, etc. It is a downward spiral.

 

This is already starting to happen in some sectors of local economies.

 

~We don't live in the same world that we did then. For that I am incredibly thankful.

 

From the crash of the stock market in 1929 to the end of WWII was a long hard struggle for many Americans. The New Deal helped, but it was the war that pulled America out of its tailspin of a spiraling depression. Not that I'd like to revisit that time, I am not sure that Americans won't find themselves back in that situation again. All of my neighbors have chicken coops now. People are growing the chickens for not only the eggs but meat too.

[Sara R]

Today, we have unemployment benefits that keep some level of income. There are food stamps, Medicaid, and other programs for those who have been laid off. Without those things, not only would some families be living in a chicken house lined with cardboard and newspapers with only eggs to eat, but the unemployment numbers would be even higher because those families wouldn't be spending that money at grocery stores, WalMart, what have you. Those places would lay off more people, cut hours, etc. It is a downward spiral.

 

And the only problem with that is that the money for food stamps, Medicaid, et al. comes from taxes (placing a higher burden on still-solvent individuals and businesses) or from money printing, which isn't going to end well either. But the benefits are nice while they last.

[MariannNOVA]

No, I do not think we are even close to recovery! I told DH the other day that anyone who is not outraged :angry: [with the way issues are (or are not) being handled] isn't paying attention.

[Vida Winter]

No, no and no.

 

I don't even believe that the stimulus is intended to work. If you look at the money that is being spent, the money that is yet to be spent, and the money that is being printed, it becomes obvious that there is no real intent to help the economy but instead to whip everyone into such a confused frenzy that they will accept whatever "cure" is thrown at them no matter how ridiculous.

 

If market forces were allowed to make corrections that were natural consequences, we would have had a painful but short recession. What the current administration has done has turned a molehill into a mountain. A mountain of debt that will affect generations to come.

 

If, and I mean if, we ever start to recover from the recession, inflation the likes of which we have never seen will result.

[ereks mom]

I don't believe it at all.

[Holly IN]

NOPE!! In fact, I think it is going to get a lot worse than it is now. Remember the numbers are not in yet about this term, market wise. I believe when it does come out it will be very behind. Look at individual states unemployment rates!! Some states have a 25% unemployment rate, some with 15%, and my state has a 10% rate.

 

Holly

[Renee in NC]

~Today, we have unemployment benefits that keep some level of income. There are food stamps, Medicaid, and other programs for those who have been laid off.

The self-employed do not receive any of these benefits.

 

~Without those things, not only would some families be living in a chicken house lined with cardboard and newspapers with only eggs to eat, but the unemployment numbers would be even higher because those families wouldn't be spending that money at grocery stores, WalMart, what have you. Those places would lay off more people, cut hours, etc. It is a downward spiral.

 

This is already starting to happen in some sectors of local economies.

 

~We don't live in the same world that we did then. For that I am incredibly thankful.

 

From the crash of the stock market in 1929 to the end of WWII was a long hard struggle for many Americans. The New Deal helped, but it was the war that pulled America out of its tailspin of a spiraling depression. Not that I'd like to revisit that time, I am not sure that Americans won't find themselves back in that situation again. All of my neighbors have chicken coops now. People are growing the chickens for not only the eggs but meat too.

 

You misunderstand - I am not saying that those things can't happen. I realize that self-employed people can't get unemployment - my dh only qualified because we incorporated last quarter of last year and made him an employee. Because he had earned little as an employee ($196 per week) he only qualified for 13 weeks and then no extensions.

 

I know some areas are very hard hit. People are moving away - reminds me of the Okies in the 30s.

 

My thankfulness was for living in a country that helps those who for whatever reason are less fortunate. My post was in answer to a common thought I hear - that things aren't that bad because people aren't living in cardboard boxes, starving to death, etc.

 

And yes, I realize that it is NOT going to work long-term. If this keeps on, their won't be money left for unemployment or food stamps or anything else for that matter.

[Renee in NC]

And the only problem with that is that the money for food stamps, Medicaid, et al. comes from taxes (placing a higher burden on still-solvent individuals and businesses) or from money printing, which isn't going to end well either. But the benefits are nice while they last.

 

Have taxes been raised? I thought they hadn't done that yet.:confused:

 

I know it isn't long-term, I was only saying that the reason why the poster's description hadn't happened yet was because of these things - not that we wouldn't get there in the future.

[Mommyof4ks]

Have taxes been raised? I thought they hadn't done that yet.:confused:

 

I know it isn't long-term, I was only saying that the reason why the poster's description hadn't happened yet was because of these things - not that we wouldn't get there in the future.

 

Not yet, but they will soon.

[Hillary in KS]

What do you think? Is recovery eminent? Are we "on our way" to recovery?

 

Nope. It is neither eminent, nor imminent.

[OrganicAnn]

For the financial sector, 4 large financial institutions posted large profits. So does this mean they are out of trouble. No. But it has stabilized. Commercial Paper market, which when it froze freaked out Paulsen and the senate last year has stabilized. Sure the auction rate security market is wiped out and the bond insurance companies are out of business. But other than that, the financial sector is stabilized. There will be increased mortgage and consumer defaults, because of unemployment and related issues. They can deal with these types of 'normal' problems. The other things that happened last year were so unusual in its impact that the financial sector couldn't deal with it.

I think the areas affected are much more moving from wall street to main street.

[DesertDweller]

No, and I'm not believing much of anything else being shoved at us right now either.

[Heidi @ Mt Hope]

Our county's unemployment rate for May was 16.3%. My brother-in-law lost his job last week. My cousin lost hers 3 weeks ago. I'm guessing it will get much worse before it gets better (if it is going to get better).

[LizzyBee]

NOPE!! In fact, I think it is going to get a lot worse than it is now. Remember the numbers are not in yet about this term, market wise. I believe when it does come out it will be very behind. Look at individual states unemployment rates!! Some states have a 25% unemployment rate, some with 15%, and my state has a 10% rate.

 

Holly

 

I'm just curious where you heard or read those unemployment rates. According to the US Dept of Labor, Michigan has the highest rate at 15%. There are at least 16 states at 10-12%.

 

The tables are a little confusing because not every state is listed in every table, but here is the link I was looking at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

[Vida Winter]

I'm just curious where you heard or read those unemployment rates. According to the US Dept of Labor, Michigan has the highest rate at 15%. There are at least 16 states at 10-12%.

 

The tables are a little confusing because not every state is listed in every table, but here is the link I was looking at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

 

It's probably an average. Some counties are particularly hard-hit. We were hovering at 15% a few months ago but summer picks up (tourists) and I doubt we're that high right now; I expect it to be worse than ever by October since everything closes down until around May. Some counties near us were at 18% unemployment a few months ago. As crops come in this summer I expect they will have a short reprieve.

 

It would be good to find an accurate source that was up-to-date. Everything I seem to find is several months old.

 

One figure that I repeatedly hear, however, is close to half a million jobs disappearing each month.

[Audrey]

I'm finding it hard to swallow. I guess I really believe the financial sector is much worse off than we are hearing. I don't believe we have hit bottom yet, especially in the housing market. I read recently that some banks were beginning to put off foreclosures as long as possible so they wouldn't have to reveal the depth of their losses.

 

What do you think? Is recovery eminent? Are we "on our way" to recovery? (who knows how long we'll take to get there :). Or are we walking in the dark?

 

 

I do think recovery is inevitable. There are always highs and lows in the economic cycle. That said, I think it's far too early for the rah-rah speeches to be even remotely believable.

[Janna]

Here is another site with information accurate up until June 2009. You can see off to the left where you can click on each state to see their numbers, or you can also look by region. You'll notice that Michigan is 15.2%(!).

 

Obviously, different areas of each state are hit differently. Here in Indiana, the state average is 10.7%, but one industrial town, heavily influenced by GM, leads the cities within Indiana with a whopping 18.8%.

Edited July 19, 2009 by Janna

[Jackie in AR]

Why on earth anyone with a brain would believe that printing endless streams of paper money that have no backing and circulating that will cure all ills is beyond me.....

 

It's mind-boggling that there are people buying into that, isn't it?

 

I'm wondering how many months (or weeks) it will be before we see the beginnings of inflation like we've never seen before.