Omicron anecdata?

[Arcadia]

2 hours ago, KSera said:

What could go wrong? 🤷‍♀️ (though honestly, I think dropping those is less problematic than the 5 day quarantine with no test required thing and I think the dropping of all the masking severely compounds the problem).

 

2 hours ago, cintinative said:

This doesn't sound like anything that could be based on sound science. It's like they have realized most people have given up and so they just dropped all the precautions.  No masks, no distancing, no testing from exposure, plus the beginning of a new school year and parents sending their kids to school sick? What could go wrong?  Seriously. I agree with KSera.  And I feel terrible for my aunt. It's like she will never be able to go out. 😞 

 

1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

I agree with you.  I am so sorry for your Aunt and others like her.  Ugh.

 

1 hour ago, Ausmumof3 said:

We have had no quarantine for close contacts for ages - just mask up when you go out. The advice is to avoid large gatherings etc but not many people do. I thought you guys had the same. 

Copying from my other post

https://forums.welltrainedmind.com/topic/720558-new-cdc-guidelines-re-covid/?do=findComment&comment=9275393

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/p0811-covid-guidance.html

““We’re in a stronger place today as a nation, with more tools—like vaccination, boosters, and treatments—to protect ourselves, and our communities, from severe illness from COVID-19,” said Greta Massetti, PhD, MPH, MMWR author. “We also have a better understanding of how to protect people from being exposed to the virus, like wearing high-quality masks, testing, and improved ventilation.  This guidance acknowledges that the pandemic is not over, but also helps us move to a point where COVID-19 no longer severely disrupts our daily lives.”

In support of this update CDC is:

• Continuing to promote the importance of being up to date with vaccination to protect people against serious illness, hospitalization, and death. Protection provided by the current vaccine against symptomatic infection and transmission is less than that against severe disease and diminishes over time, especially against the currently circulating variants. For this reason, it is important to stay up to date, especially as new vaccines become available.
• Updating its guidance for people who are not up to date on COVID-19 vaccines on what to do if exposed to someone with COVID-19.  This is consistent with the existing guidance for people who are up to date on COVID-19 vaccines.
• Recommending that instead of quarantining if you were exposed to COVID-19, you wear a high-quality mask for 10 days and get tested on day 5.
• Reiterating that regardless of vaccination status, you should isolate from others when you have COVID-19.
  • You should also isolate if you are sick and suspect that you have COVID-19 but do not yet have test results.
    • If your results are positive, follow CDC’s full isolation recommendations.
    • If your results are negative, you can end your isolation.
• Recommending that if you test positive for COVID-19, you stay home for at least 5 days and isolate from others in your home.  You are likely most infectious during these first 5 days. Wear a high-quality mask when you must be around others at home and in public.
  • If after 5 days you are fever-free for 24 hours without the use of medication, and your symptoms are improving, or you never had symptoms, you may end isolation after day 5.
  • Regardless of when you end isolation, avoid being around people who are more likely to get very sick from COVID-19 until at least day 11.
  • You should wear a high-quality mask through day 10.
• Recommending that if you had moderate illness (if you experienced shortness of breath or had difficulty breathing) or severe illness (you were hospitalized) due to COVID-19 or you have a weakened immune system, you need to isolate through day 10.
• Recommending that if you had  severe illness or have a weakened immune system, consult your doctor before ending isolation. Ending isolation without a viral test may not be an option for you. If you are unsure if your symptoms are moderate or severe or if you have a weakened immune system, talk to a healthcare provider for further guidance.
• Clarifying that after you have ended isolation, if your COVID-19 symptoms worsen, restart your isolation at day 0. Talk to a healthcare provider if you have questions about your symptoms or when to end isolation.
• Recommending screening testing of asymptomatic people without known exposures will no longer be recommended in most community settings.
• Emphasizing that physical distance is just one component of how to protect yourself and others.  It is important to consider the risk in a particular setting, including local COVID-19 Community Levels and the important role of ventilation, when assessing the need to maintain physical distance.

…

This updated guidance is intended to apply to community settings. In the coming weeks CDC will work to align stand-alone guidance documents, such as those for healthcare settings, congregate settings at higher risk of transmission, and travel, with today’s update.”

[KSera]

4 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Here's the CDC's new advice for protecting yourself against COVID-19 (msn.com)

MSN headlines frequently frustrate me. The new CDC guidance really doesn't have anything to do with protecting yourself against Covid, other than the fact that it continues to advise remaining up to date on vaccines. It's mostly about what the minimum requirements are to reduce spread it to others.

3 hours ago, Arcadia said:

• • Regardless of when you end isolation, avoid being around people who are more likely to get very sick from COVID-19 until at least day 11.

Thanks for sharing the summary. This point is one that never has made any sense to me and seems to throw high risk people under the bus. Out in public, who knows which people are high risk that they should avoid being around? People are expected back at work on day 6 now, due to the CDC guidance saying that's when they can go, which means those who work with the public are almost surely going to end up being around people who are more likely to get very sick, who the CDC says they shouldn't be around until at least day 11. Seems that businesses like that--grocery stores, pharmacies, doctors office, etc--should go by the 11 day rule.

[TexasProud]

3 hours ago, KSera said:

 

Thanks for sharing the summary. This point is one that never has made any sense to me and seems to throw high risk people under the bus. 

Except it seems like, they don't think it is much of a threat if people are immunized now, even if they are immunocompromised?  I mean, my mom had such a mild case.  I don't know.  I am just really, really struggling with the advice and sentiment on this board and my real life.  I had an appointment to get genetic screening for cancer at THE cancer center in our area.  It is a satellite for the big one in the Metroplex.  There were 20 or so people in the waiting room. Many were there for infusions and such. I was the only one masked in the entire place: patients, staff, and doctors.  I wore my N95. I figured that would be the place that would mask, but obviously, they have made a medical decision that it isn't needed.
 

Like I said, the Hive says one thing, and my reality says another. 

[Katy]

2 hours ago, TexasProud said:

Except it seems like, they don't think it is much of a threat if people are immunized now, even if they are immunocompromised?  I mean, my mom had such a mild case.  I don't know.  I am just really, really struggling with the advice and sentiment on this board and my real life.  I had an appointment to get genetic screening for cancer at THE cancer center in our area.  It is a satellite for the big one in the Metroplex.  There were 20 or so people in the waiting room. Many were there for infusions and such. I was the only one masked in the entire place: patients, staff, and doctors.  I wore my N95. I figured that would be the place that would mask, but obviously, they have made a medical decision that it isn't needed.
 

Like I said, the Hive says one thing, and my reality says another. 

I actually agree with you, and obviously until last Saturday we were more locked down than I think all but one family on the board. The thing is with a vaccine, which now everyone can get, it is less risky than influenza. If you’re so immune compromised a minor cold or flu might kill you, absolutely be careful. But otherwise I no longer see the point. 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, Katy said:

I actually agree with you, and obviously until last Saturday we were more locked down than I think all but one family on the board. The thing is with a vaccine, which now everyone can get, it is less risky than influenza. If you’re so immune compromised a minor cold or flu might kill you, absolutely be careful. But otherwise I no longer see the point. 

How does it work then that the rolling average for deaths is so much higher than flu?  I know you have a lot of unvaxed but in Aus we don’t and covid is on track to be our top or second killer this year? I think it’s possible that per infection it’s less deadly than flu but because people are getting infected so much more often it’s killing more people? Plus it’s killing year round not just in winter?

No criticism of your personal decision btw I think we’re all at the point that we have to figure out what works for our families going forward as a sustainable long term lifestyle. I’m just interested from a weighing up my own risk point of view I guess.

[KSera]

2 hours ago, Katy said:

I actually agree with you, and obviously until last Saturday we were more locked down than I think all but one family on the board. The thing is with a vaccine, which now everyone can get, it is less risky than influenza. If you’re so immune compromised a minor cold or flu might kill you, absolutely be careful. But otherwise I no longer see the point. 

Is it less risky for a vaxed high risk person to have Covid than for a vaxed high risk person to have flu? With the numbers of vaccinated high risk people still becoming very ill and still sometimes dying from Covid, it doesn’t feel that way yet, but I’ll have to look at stats (and there’s the point that Covid is way more transmissible than the flu, so those people at high risk from both are just more likely to get Covid with so much of it around and it so easy to catch).

5 hours ago, TexasProud said:

Except it seems like, they don't think it is much of a threat if people are immunized now, even if they are immunocompromised?  I mean, my mom had such a mild case.  I don't know.  I am just really, really struggling with the advice and sentiment on this board and my real life.  I had an appointment to get genetic screening for cancer at THE cancer center in our area.  It is a satellite for the big one in the Metroplex.  There were 20 or so people in the waiting room. Many were there for infusions and such. I was the only one masked in the entire place: patients, staff, and doctors.  I wore my N95. I figured that would be the place that would mask, but obviously, they have made a medical decision that it isn't needed.
 

Like I said, the Hive says one thing, and my reality says another. 

I think that’s because you’re in one of the places that has been resistant to acknowledging risk from Covid. There are other states where masks are required in healthcare settings. Honestly, that seems like good practice in general going forward. Healthcare settings have a lot of at risk people and a lot of sick people all in one place. Would reduce flu as well. 

The point that I quoted remains an issue though, in that they are telling people who are infected to stay away from high-risk people until day 11, but there seems no practical way to do that if people who are infected are in public places.

 

[KSera]

7 minutes ago, KSera said:

Is it less risky for a vaxed high risk person to have Covid than for a vaxed high risk person to have flu? With the numbers of vaccinated high risk people still becoming very ill and still sometimes dying from Covid, it doesn’t feel that way yet, but I’ll have to look at stats

I was just looking and haven’t found anything good to address this yet, except one headline behind a pay wall from the UK indicating that their death rate from omicron was lower than for flu. Again, I don’t know how that compares vaccinated versus vaccinated though. I do know that their Covid vaccination rate is much much higher than their flu vaccination rate. It’s complicated to compare.

I did want to add though, that for myself and many others I know, the concern isn’t just surviving a Covid infection, which I think most people are fairly confident right now that they would be able to do, it’s the long term ramifications both in the form of long Covid and increased cardiovascular and other risks. And each infection increases those post Covid risks  

 

[TexasProud]

9 minutes ago, KSera said:

Is it less risky for a vaxed high risk person to have Covid than for a vaxed high risk person to have flu? With the numbers of vaccinated high risk people still becoming very ill and still sometimes dying from Covid, it doesn’t feel that way yet, but I’ll have to look at stats (and there’s the point that Covid is way more transmissible than the flu, so those people at high risk from both are just more likely to get Covid with so much of it around and it so easy to catch).

 

Yeah, because I know NO ONE who has even been hospitalized with Covid anymore.  I know TONS of people that have had it over the past 6 months or so, but our hospitalizations are so incredibly low and ICU are miniscule, I would say much lower than the flu used to be honestly.  I know it will take awhile for the stats to be seen.  And yeah, long Covid..we will see.  But right now, it just doesn't seem to be anymore of a threat than the flu used to be and I took no extra precautions for that other than getting my flu shot.  Caveat: Covid of 2020 and 2021 was different.  I know that wasn't like the flu.  But now, I think it is. 

[KSera]

5 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Yeah, because I know NO ONE who has even been hospitalized with Covid anymore.  I know TONS of people that have had it over the past 6 months or so, but our hospitalizations are so incredibly low and ICU are miniscule, I would say much lower than the flu used to be honestly.  I know it will take awhile for the stats to be seen.  And yeah, long Covid..we will see.  But right now, it just doesn't seem to be anymore of a threat than the flu used to be and I took no extra precautions for that other than getting my flu shot.  Caveat: Covid of 2020 and 2021 was different.  I know that wasn't like the flu.  But now, I think it is. 

Hopefully this will be the case. Though, obviously whether it is or isn’t has little to do with what you may personally be seeing. Anecdotes are not data and all that. We actually have always taken flu precautions, though not at all to the degree that we have with Covid. We just really, really didn’t want to get flu each year and altered our behavior accordingly. But with Covid, there are all the compounding increased health risks every time you get infected. 

[TCB]

14 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

We have had no quarantine for close contacts for ages - just mask up when you go out. The advice is to avoid large gatherings etc but not many people do. I thought you guys had the same. 
 

Not that I’d advocate for it, we’re not doing well down here at all with covid. I’m just surprised it’s not already a thing in the US.

It doesn’t matter what the guidelines are, just about nobody follows them in any way where I am and haven’t since just about the beginning.

[cintinative]

This might not be adding to the conversation but people here have gotten to the point where they don't even check to see what the numbers are. And there is an underlying assumption that since they have had COVID, they won't get it again.  There is no apparent concern for long COVID.

TexasProud's observation at her cancer center is not how things are here. Masks are still required in all medical settings, including doctor's offices.

One thing I am not sure about is if we know for certain that our future variants of COVID will be like Omicron--less risk for severe disease. What happens if we get a variant as contagious as this latest Omicron (e.g. like the measles) but also produces severe disease? Is that possible?

What I fear in that scenario is that people won't flex because the CDC has dropped back the requirements--they won't accept new guidelines unless they see massive death like New York in early 2020.  There is already so much frustration over uneven messaging.  I see this with my husband--CDC cannot change their guidelines based on current conditions--there is no flexibility or understanding that this is novel virus and we are still learning, and it is still mutating, etc.  

[Corraleno]

7 hours ago, TexasProud said:

Except it seems like, they don't think it is much of a threat if people are immunized now, even if they are immunocompromised?  I mean, my mom had such a mild case.  I don't know.  I am just really, really struggling with the advice and sentiment on this board and my real life.  I had an appointment to get genetic screening for cancer at THE cancer center in our area.  It is a satellite for the big one in the Metroplex.  There were 20 or so people in the waiting room. Many were there for infusions and such. I was the only one masked in the entire place: patients, staff, and doctors.  I wore my N95. I figured that would be the place that would mask, but obviously, they have made a medical decision that it isn't needed.

No, they have made a political decision not to bother with an effective mitigation measure that many medical providers in other areas continue to enforce. I'm sorry that your mother's healthcare providers are putting politics ahead of the health and safety of their patients — and I'm very relieved that my own providers have chosen to continue requiring masks for all patients and providers at all times. They are also still enforcing distancing, limiting the number of people who accompany patients, etc.

More than 12,000 Americans died of covid last month, and of the 4 million confirmed cases (plus likely 10x that number for untested or home-tested cases), somewhere between 20-30% of those may end up with symptoms of long covid — and I'd really prefer to not be one of them. The fact that I don't personally know anyone who has died of covid, or even been hospitalized with it, doesn't make me think covid is "over" or there's no longer a need to take precautions against an illness that is still killing more people per month than the flu does even in a bad flu season.

[cintinative]

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/a-reaction-to-the-cdc-guidance

[TexasProud]

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

The fact that I don't personally know anyone who has died of covid, or even been hospitalized with it, doesn't make me think covid is "over" or there's no longer a need to take precautions against an illness that is still killing more people per month than the flu does even in a bad flu season.

First of all, wasn't my mom's.  My mom's office, which BTW isn't a big center, does mask.  It is just two doctors in private practice.  It was MY appointment. I went to the cancer center for genetic testing since my mom has some nasty cancer genes...not Braca, but a different one.

So, I decided to do some research.  In my county this is the amount of people that have died from Covid:
2020- 210
2021- 381
2022- 108  

However, only 19 people have died in the last 5 months. The last few months have just been 2 people a month. And the numbers of positives have been massive, and it is really higher since people like my husband and I took a home test and never reported it.  So it is not that less people are getting it. It is less deadly.

In 2018 my county had 25 flu deaths.  If the current death rate holds, it will be equivalent to the flu. But again, we will see if statistics continue in this direction. 

Edited August 12, 2022 by TexasProud

[Corraleno]

I think the CDC has just totally given up on trying to prevent spread, which basically throws the elderly, vulnerable, and immuno-compromised people under the bus, and they are pretending that long covid does not exist and does not have very real long-term costs, both for individuals and for the population (and economy) as a whole.

I understand that public health folks need to find some balance between what is scientifically accurate and what people will actually listen to and comply with, but you don't find that balance by just splitting the difference between "prudent recommendations based on scientific fact" and "idiots who refuse to do anything at all," because you just end up with half-assed measures that don't provide any real protection to those who truly need — or even just want — to protect themselves and/or vulnerable loved ones.

Reducing quarantine for sick people to 5 days while knowing full well that many people are infectious well beyond that, AND knowing that many employers will use the 5 day "guideline" to force infectious people back to work, AND knowing that a huge percentage of the population will not mask when they are forced to return to work while actively shedding virus, makes these "guidelines" worse than useless. Either tell people to do whatever the hell they want and let it rip, or tell people the truth so those who want to protect themselves can.

[KSera]

3 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I think the CDC has just totally given up on trying to prevent spread, which basically throws the elderly, vulnerable, and immuno-compromised people under the bus, and they are pretending that long covid does not exist and does not have very real long-term costs, both for individuals and for the population (and economy) as a whole.

I understand that public health folks need to find some balance between what is scientifically accurate and what people will actually listen to and comply with, but you don't find that balance by just splitting the difference between "prudent recommendations based on scientific fact" and "idiots who refuse to do anything at all," because you just end up with half-assed measures that don't provide any real protection to those who truly need — or even just want — to protect themselves and/or vulnerable loved ones.

Reducing quarantine for sick people to 5 days while knowing full well that many people are infectious well beyond that, AND knowing that many employers will use the 5 day "guideline" to force infectious people back to work, AND knowing that a huge percentage of the population will not mask when they are forced to return to work while actively shedding virus, makes these "guidelines" worse than useless. Either tell people to do whatever the hell they want and let it rip, or tell people the truth so those who want to protect themselves can.

Wholeheartedly agree with ALL of this. What's even the point of the CDC then? As the My Local Epidemiologist linked just above says, the CDC doesn't make a food pyramid guideline based on what they think people will eat, it's based on what they deem would be healthiest, and then people can choose to follow it or not. Otherwise, what the point?

I feel like there needs to be some kind of ~something~ that specifically bars employers from using the 5 day rule that way. It's pretty much standard for hourly workers, most of whom really don't want to be out of work any longer than necessary anyway because they need their pay. But they are being given a blanket requirement they must return after 5 days.

[I talk to the trees]

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

I think the CDC has just totally given up on trying to prevent spread, which basically throws the elderly, vulnerable, and immuno-compromised people under the bus, and they are pretending that long covid does not exist and does not have very real long-term costs, both for individuals and for the population (and economy) as a whole.

I understand that public health folks need to find some balance between what is scientifically accurate and what people will actually listen to and comply with, but you don't find that balance by just splitting the difference between "prudent recommendations based on scientific fact" and "idiots who refuse to do anything at all," because you just end up with half-assed measures that don't provide any real protection to those who truly need — or even just want — to protect themselves and/or vulnerable loved ones.

Reducing quarantine for sick people to 5 days while knowing full well that many people are infectious well beyond that, AND knowing that many employers will use the 5 day "guideline" to force infectious people back to work, AND knowing that a huge percentage of the population will not mask when they are forced to return to work while actively shedding virus, makes these "guidelines" worse than useless. Either tell people to do whatever the hell they want and let it rip, or tell people the truth so those who want to protect themselves can.

This. It absolutely makes my skin crawl to hear people say “There have only been X number of deaths.” Those onlies are not just some random number on a list of statistics. They are- or were- someone's husbands, wives, sons, daughters, sisters, brothers and friends. They are real, and there are real people out there going through real heartbreak and loss because someone shrugged their shoulders and said “Well, since our ICUs aren’t at the absolute breaking point right now, I don’t see the need to wear a mask in public. After all we have only had a few dozen deaths in my city.” 
 

Remember complaining to our parents that “Everyone's doing <fill in the blank with something unwise but popular> “ and our parents would respond with “Would you jump off a cliff because everybody was doing it? Hmmm?”  I see that with the anti-maskers. Doing things that they know are unwise because of (let's be honest here) peer pressure. This  sort of behavior does not bode well for other emerging viruses. 
 

And honestly, I’m just venting. I know that I’m powerless to change any minds. The only thing to do is keep chugging forward and doing what I can to protect myself and my family. It’s frustrating, but that's life. 

[ktgrok]

22 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

CDC drops quarantine, distancing recommendations for COVID (msn.com)

The thing is, what I read when I first saw this was that they still said you should mask in areas of high transmission - with no mention in the media that pretty much EVERYWHERE has high transmission! The lightening of restrictions was for low transmission areas. 

3 hours ago, TexasProud said:

 

However, only 19 people have died in the last 5 months. The last few months have just been 2 people a month. And the numbers of positives have been massive, and it is really higher since people like my husband and I took a home test and never reported it.  So it is not that less people are getting it. It is less deadly.

In 2018 my county had 25 flu deaths.  If the current death rate holds, it will be equivalent to the flu. But again, we will see if statistics continue in this direction. 

Keep in mind that it may be a lag - death data in most cases can take 2 months to be in the system - it takes time to be counted up, certified, filed, etc etc etc. It may be that people are doing bette,r or may be an artifact of how data is collected and reported. 

[Matryoshka]

3 hours ago, TexasProud said:

First of all, wasn't my mom's.  My mom's office, which BTW isn't a big center, does mask.  It is just two doctors in private practice.  It was MY appointment. I went to the cancer center for genetic testing since my mom has some nasty cancer genes...not Braca, but a different one.

So, I decided to do some research.  In my county this is the amount of people that have died from Covid:
2020- 210
2021- 381
2022- 108  

However, only 19 people have died in the last 5 months. The last few months have just been 2 people a month. And the numbers of positives have been massive, and it is really higher since people like my husband and I took a home test and never reported it.  So it is not that less people are getting it. It is less deadly.

In 2018 my county had 25 flu deaths.  If the current death rate holds, it will be equivalent to the flu. But again, we will see if statistics continue in this direction. 

Huh. According to the NYT, Texas (which I know is much larger than your county, but i don'thave that data) is currently averaging 27 deaths per day from Covid.  Not over time - every day.  Johns Hopkins has it higher- averaging 44 per day.  In both, avg Covid deaths are on an uptick.  Are that many people dying of the flu every day in TX? In the summer?

[SHP]

1 hour ago, I talk to the trees said:

 “There have only been X number of deaths.” Those onlies are not just some random number on a list of statistics. They are- or were- someone's husbands, wives, sons, daughters, sisters, brothers and friends. They are real, and there are real people out there going through real heartbreak and loss

This needs to be said again and again. It should be the headline in every media source. 

These are not random numbers, these are people. 

[kbutton]

7 hours ago, cintinative said:

TexasProud's observation at her cancer center is not how things are here. Masks are still required in all medical settings, including doctor's offices.

Mostly how things are here. I need a procedure done, and I won't go to the stand-alone surgery center because they won't make the medical staff mask, much less the patients. I can ask, but they don't have to do it. Additionally, I have to be unmasked for a good chunk of my visit there (though I don't know why). I believe it's the largest group in the tri-state that does this kind of stuff, and my doctor is a really good one.

I am hoping that not having this done right now ends up being okay, but it's a follow-up/screening for a problem they found (and fixed) last year when I was having something else done.

[TexasProud]

2 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

Huh. According to the NYT, Texas (which I know is much larger than your county, but i don'thave that data) is currently averaging 27 deaths per day from Covid.  Not over time - every day.  Johns Hopkins has it higher- averaging 44 per day.  In both, avg Covid deaths are on an uptick.  Are that many people dying of the flu every day in TX? In the summer?

Well, I looked up the flu deaths in Texas for 2018.  There were 9,470 deaths.  I divided it by 365 and got 25.94 a day that died in Texas from flu. Every day. 

[kbutton]

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, TexasProud said:

Well, I looked up the flu deaths in Texas for 2018.  There were 9,470 deaths.  I divided it by 365 and got 25.94 a day that died in Texas from flu. Every day. 

Worldometer data has the rolling average at 37. There was a similar trough last year. It began increasing around the 5th of August and peaked in September at 293 per day. I agree that if the current trough continues year round it might make sense to treat it like the flu, but it hasn’t in previous years, so if it does it will be the first time. I’d be keeping an eye on the stats for a bit longer and be ready to adjust strategy if cases start climbing.

[Ausmumof3]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/
 

It’s worth a look at the graph to see what I mean I think. This trough hasn’t been any longer than the previous ones yet. If it does extend out that would be great.

[Mom_to3]

8 hours ago, cintinative said:

https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/p/a-reaction-to-the-cdc-guidance

Another refreshing take on the new guidance from an ER doc at a top hospital in Boston.

https://insidemedicine.bulletin.com/cdc-after-day-5-covid-patients-with-positive-rapid-tests-can-go-out-in-public-if-masked

Such awful awful messaging for something called the Centers for Disease Control and *Prevention*.

 

[KSera]

1 hour ago, TexasProud said:

Well, I looked up the flu deaths in Texas for 2018.  There were 9,470 deaths.  I divided it by 365 and got 25.94 a day that died in Texas from flu. Every day. 

@Ausmumof3pretty much covered what I was going to say, but I was also going to point out that for many months through later winter and early spring, the first omicron wave,Texas was having hundreds of deaths every day. For a long while. So I'm also hopeful that the current lower rates will hold--that would be fantastic. But I also think it's premature for people to think the current state of affairs is just how things are going to stay. Which leads to this...

 

11 hours ago, cintinative said:

One thing I am not sure about is if we know for certain that our future variants of COVID will be like Omicron--less risk for severe disease. What happens if we get a variant as contagious as this latest Omicron (e.g. like the measles) but also produces severe disease? Is that possible?

We don't at all know for certain that future variants will be low risk. It's comforting to think, and we all hope so, but it's completely possible to mutate back in the direction of more severe disease. It was frequently stated as fact by covid deniers earlier in the pandemic that viruses always mutate to be less severe, but that's just not the case.

[Happy2BaMom]

1 hour ago, TexasProud said:

Well, I looked up the flu deaths in Texas for 2018.  There were 9,470 deaths.  I divided it by 365 and got 25.94 a day that died in Texas from flu. Every day. 

I'd just point out that 2018 was an unusually severe flu season. The flu death #s for Texas for other years are much lower (2016 - 5,215; 2017 - 7,459; 2019 - 2,650). I didn't include 2020 & 2021 due to the pandemic & how that might have skewed things (I think flu deaths were much lower overall).

I guess I'm also confused as to how this relates....I know from your other posts that you seem to be a caring, sincere person, but it kind of comes across that you don't regard these Covid deaths as worth much fuss since a similar average died daily during a really bad flu season?

 

[Ausmumof3]

3 minutes ago, KSera said:

@Ausmumof3pretty much covered what I was going to say, but I was also going to point out that for many months through later winter and early spring, the first omicron wave,Texas was having hundreds of deaths every day. For a long while. So I'm also hopeful that the current lower rates will hold--that would be fantastic. But I also think it's premature for people to think the current state of affairs is just how things are going to stay. Which leads to this...

 

We don't at all know for certain that future variants will be low risk. It's comforting to think, and we all hope so, but it's completely possible to mutate back in the direction of more severe disease. It was frequently stated as fact by covid deniers earlier in the pandemic that viruses always mutate to be less severe, but that's just not the case.

There is early evidence of a slightly increase severity for BA5 though not back to the level of pre omicron variants (at least according to coronacast last week - quoted from the transcript below)

Tegan Taylor: So can we talk about how severe the disease is that BA5 causes? I mean, I know we just said that we are basically bidding it farewell. Some of the way the severe disease manifests is whether or not you are fully vaccinated, and you just said that a lot of us aren't. But inherently, how does it compare to other variants?

Norman Swan: Well, the epidemiological data are not entirely clear. There has been a lab study which has not been peer-reviewed, which has come out of Japan, where they've got lab models in both hamsters and in the test tube to look at how likely it is that these subvariants disrupt the surface of the lung and blood vessels, and their conclusion from that is that BA5…and this contradicts something we've been saying a bit on Coronacast, so we have to actually correct that, is they think that BA5 has lower ability to cause disease than the ancestral variant. We've been saying, based on early data, that the ability to cause disease is the same as the ancestral strain, the Wuhan strain, but in fact they are saying here, based on this laboratory data, that it has lower pathology potential, but it does have more ability to cause damage than BA1 and BA2.

Tegan Taylor: Okay, so it's sort of in the middle there.

Norman Swan: It's worse in terms of inflammation and disruption to the lung tissue in the lab than BA1 and BA2, but still low when you compare it historically to Wuhan, and presumably by inference Delta, although they didn't look at Delta in this study.

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/can-we-wave-bye-bye-to-the-b5-wave/101315854

[Matryoshka]

3 hours ago, TexasProud said:

Well, I looked up the flu deaths in Texas for 2018.  There were 9,470 deaths.  I divided it by 365 and got 25.94 a day that died in Texas from flu. Every day. 

That is a lot! But then that's still a lot more Covid deaths. These current numbers are a lull... BA2.75 is up next... 😷 (its the transmissability more than lethality per case that's worrying me at this point; though of course with it running around in so many hosts unchecked and its rate of mutation,  that could change again...)

Edited August 13, 2022 by Matryoshka
Typos!

[iamonlyone]

DD27, the professional ballerina I've written about as having long Covid from a January 2022 infection (still on beta blocker and doing cardiac rehab), has Covid again.

[Spryte]

School started here on Wed, and we’ve got a little classroom outbreak already. Neighbor kid tested positive today, went to school with “allergies” yesterday. 

And the people we were to meet for an outdoor fire pit gathering tonight just cancelled—one is sick, tested positive. 

I’m not optimistic about the fall, at this point.

[freesia]

This year with camps was really bad. Every camp we were involved with had significant outbreaks. We did the same 3 camps last year and there were no outbreaks. So, add that to our area being plateaued since June—yeah, I’m sure it will be a problem. And with polio across the river and Monkeypox in the city—oy! I’m just doing my best here to keep us healthy mentally as well as physically, but it’s weighing on me. 

[TexasProud]

19 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

 

I guess I'm also confused as to how this relates....I know from your other posts that you seem to be a caring, sincere person, but it kind of comes across that you don't regard these Covid deaths as worth much fuss since a similar average died daily during a really bad flu season?

 

Sort of. Now I completely agree that WAY too many people died 2020, 2021, and beginning of 2022 and mostly because of the callous disregard for human life. And no, it wasn't like the flu.  But now, it is everywhere.  If you travel or even go to the Zoo, for heaven's sake like the other poster, you are exposed/will get it.  And mitigation doesn't seem to matter. On our mission trip, we wore N95's EVERYWHERE: in the hospital, outside, inside.  The only place we did not wear them was at our dinner/team meeting which was in a room only we were in.  We all tested before we came and everyone was vaccinated and had at least one booster. Yet, anyone who hadn't had it yet, got it. 

My sister went to Canada for a work event.  Not only did they test before they got on the airplane, but had to test at the hotel. Everyone tested daily.  Wore masks. And yet, 30 people got it at last count.

Now no one is at the hospital from either group. I mentioned this a few weeks ago, and just checked it again and this statistic is holding steady for my area.  At the height of Covid, we had 900 people in the hospital in our region with Covid and the majority of them were in ICU and most in ICU were on a vent.  Now our numbers are much worse as far as the number who have it ( and that is without counting people like us who didn't officially test) and the hospital numbers have remained steady in the 90's.  Only 11 are in ICU. It is not stressing the healthcare system in any way. 

It just doesn't feel like it is as serious now.  I mean I got the flu once when the kids were little and it kicked my butt. I was out for a week. That was in 1999. Since then, I have gotten the flu shot and haven't had it again.  Actually, for me, the flu was MUCH worse than my case of Covid. It (and for most that I have talked to) felt like a bad cold with maybe some lingering fatigue. (Again, I realize NOT true at all for prior variants.) If I had been home and not in a hotel room, I would have still done some chores.  With the flu, I couldn't get off of the couch for 3 days. And was weak for 3 more days.

So I guess, for me, I am going to treat it like I treat the flu. I will get my shot every year.  I will wear my mask around my mom and anyone else who is vulnerable like that. Just as I would have during flu season. But other than that, I think I am done stressing about what variable will do what, especially since my husband and other health care providers are just treating it like another illness now.  To be honest, my mom is probably going back into the hospital tomorrow, and I just don't have the brain space to try and figure out what research is true/not true/what is risky, what is.....  My brain is just done.  And I am staying far away from the monkey pox thread. I just can't.   I cannot control anyone else and I am comfortable with what I am doing at this point. 

I will believe what the experts I know in real life tell me to do.  My brain is just dead. 

Edited August 13, 2022 by TexasProud

[mommyoffive]

On 8/13/2022 at 12:58 PM, iamonlyone said:

DD27, the professional ballerina I've written about as having long Covid from a January 2022 infection (still on beta blocker and doing cardiac rehab), has Covid again.

I am so sorry.  I am sending all good thoughts her way.  I hope that she has an easy time of it. 

[mommyoffive]

[mommyoffive]

Has anyone heard of the trials for kids with the bivalent omicron booster going on?  

[bookbard]

Can't quote your thing about zombie apocalypse, @mommyoffive, but absolutely. I am fairly sure we'd be expected to keep working when the asteroid is about to hit earth, too. We had a bushfire bearing down on our town, the road was closed with police blockade, and we still got whinging complaints about our business not being open that day. I don't think I will ever forget the stress of that time (Dec 2019). 

On 8/14/2022 at 8:49 AM, TexasProud said:

It just doesn't feel like it is as serious now.

We had over 500 deaths from Covid last week, including children and young people who would not have died otherwise. I remember a bad flu season a few years ago - a child died and there was a big news story - now there's nothing about children dying every week from Covid. You only find out by looking at the raw data on the govt health pages. The 'peak' is over  . . . but the 'base' we are out now is higher than the peak of the previous wave. 

Having said that, the local FB group did a survey and about 40% of people had not yet had Covid. I know lots of people who've managed to avoid it. And I plan to avoid it for as long as I can, hoping for a real vaccine or similar. 

[Arcadia]

https://www.scmp.com/video/asia/3188916/japan-battles-its-second-worst-covid-19-wave-daily-death-toll-increases
“Japan is battling its second-worst Covid-19 wave since the start of the pandemic. Infections have spiked since July 2022, after weeks of declining numbers. The country reported 178,356 cases on August 14, 2022. … The country recorded more than 200 daily deaths for five consecutive days since August 9. The highly-infectious BA.5 variant is driving the surge, especially among youngsters.”

[wathe]

RE covid vs flu:  Not even close.  Covid is killing many more people.  Orders of magnitude more.  Even if it does become less deadly on a case for case basis (lower IFR), it's so much more contagious that the absolute number of covid deaths will likely still be much much higher.  I don't think you can meaningfully compare flu data from past years with current covid data.  You'd have to compare current flu data with current covid data to account for the effects of mitigation measures like masking in hospitals, individual social behaviour changes, etc, which work to suppress transmission of both flu and covid.   (I'm sure it seems like everyone has given up on mitigation, but not everyone has, and some social behavioural changes have stuck.  Enough to make a difference, I think)

Canada has a very robust influenza monitoring program.  This flu season so far (Aug 20, 2021 to July 23, 2022), among participating provinces (AB, MB, NB, NL, PE, YT, NS, NWT), there have been 21 influenza deaths, 67 ICU admissions, 752 hospitalizations.  That's 21 flu deaths cumulative over the past year.  Those same provinces have reported a total of 46 covid deaths in JUST THE LAST WEEK.

Not even close.

[Arcadia]

From MarketWatch https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/pfizer-ceo-tests-positive-for-covid-19-2022-08-15

“Pfizer Inc. PFE CEO Albert Bourla tested positive for COVID-19. He tweeted Monday that he received four shots of the COVID-19 vaccine the company developed with BioNTech SE BNTX, is "experiencing very mild symptoms" and has started taking Paxlovid, Pfizer's COVID-19 antiviral.”

[mommyoffive]

How to Assess Covid Risks as CDC Guidelines Ease (msn.com)

[SHP]

On 8/13/2022 at 5:49 PM, TexasProud said:

I will believe what the experts I know in real life tell me to do.  My brain is just dead. 

I feel the fatigue deeply and completely understand that. My mother has been very sick the last two years making everything harder. 

 

I am confused by your bolded statement. I am wondering what you mean by experts you know in real life. I personally do not know anyone I would consider an expert and able to give accurately and current information specifically on Covid in my area.

 

[iamonlyone]

20 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

I am so sorry.  I am sending all good thoughts her way.  I hope that she has an easy time of it. 

Many thanks! She is on day 14 and was prescribed steroids, antibiotics (not sure why--last go around she developed pneumonia, so maybe they are seeing an indication it is going that way?) and a nasal spray. She lost all taste and smell this go around, but not last winter. (I remember there was some discussion on the issue of whether or not it was likely to experience those symptoms with reinfections.)

[BeachGal]

Another nasal spray that is showing promise at both preventing and helping to treat Covid and all its variants, including probably future variants. Targets the virus’ RNA. Developed at Berkeley. Most optimistic timeline that it could be available to the public is fall 2023.

https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/covid-19-nasal-spray-could-be-game-changer-researcher-says/

[BeachGal]

For those of you interested in long Covid and ME/CFS, Dr. Bettina Hohberger, a German ophthalmologist, did a podcast interview where she discusses the small number of long haulers treated using a drug called BC 007. Also helped one person with ME/CFS not caused by Covid. It’s in the early stages.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-40-dr-bettina-hohberger-the-eye-and-bc007/id1574768076?i=1000569291555

[mommyoffive]

4 hours ago, iamonlyone said:

Many thanks! She is on day 14 and was prescribed steroids, antibiotics (not sure why--last go around she developed pneumonia, so maybe they are seeing an indication it is going that way?) and a nasal spray. She lost all taste and smell this go around, but not last winter. (I remember there was some discussion on the issue of whether or not it was likely to experience those symptoms with reinfections.)

Day 14, is she still feeling sick?  I hope all the meds help her get well soon.

[Arcadia]

3 hours ago, BeachGal said:

For those of you interested in long Covid and ME/CFS, Dr. Bettina Hohberger, a German ophthalmologist, did a podcast interview where she discusses the small number of long haulers treated using a drug called BC 007. Also helped one person with ME/CFS not caused by Covid. It’s in the early stages.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-40-dr-bettina-hohberger-the-eye-and-bc007/id1574768076?i=1000569291555

https://www.fau.eu/2022/08/05/news/research/diagnosis-and-therapy-of-me-cfs-what-can-we-learn-from-long-covid/
“PD Dr. Dr. Bettina Hohberger, molecular medicine expert and ophthalmologist at the Department of Ophthalmology at Universitätsklinikum Erlangen, and Dr. Martin Kräter from the Max Planck Institute for the Science of Light presented the benefits of their work for people suffering from ME/CFS (myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome) to the politicians. The researchers from Erlangen have proven that there are objectively measurable parallels between Long Covid and ME/CFS. “Together with Dr. Gerd Wallukat from Berlin Cures GmbH, we have identified two functionally active GPCR autoantibodies that are also found in people suffering from Long Covid, M2-AAb and β2-AAb, in people suffering from ME/CFS,” explained Dr. Hohberger.

ME/CFS is an acquired, severe organic multisystem disease that leads to severe pathological fatigue (mental and physical) after physical or mental exertion. “ME/CFS is often triggered after a viral infection, for example in connection with the Epstein-Barr virus or after contracting influenza. Some of those who contract Covid-19 will go on to develop ME/CFS as a severe form of Long Covid,” explained Bettina Hohberger. This is one of the similarities it shares with Long-Covid syndrome, which is caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. No specific organic defects are apparent in either of the illnesses.

Potential treatment using BC 007: initial successes

The researchers from Erlangen have succeeded in detecting two autoantibodies M2-AAb und β2-AAb that are found in patients suffering from Long Covid in patients with ME/CFS. They have also found the first indication of changes to blood cells that may have an effect on microcirculation. Based on this discovery and following on from treatment attempts using Aptamer BC 007 (Berlin Cures GmbH, Berlin), Dr. Hohberger began to treat a patient who had been suffering for some time from ME/CFS with BC 007. According to the patient, her symptoms improved over a number of months. First of all, she noticed a reduction in cognitive complaints such as brain fog, lack of concentration and short term memory limitations, followed by improvements in her sensitivity to noise and light. Over a period of several months, she noticed an improvement in fatigue, weak muscles and PoTS, or postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, that can lead to heart palpitations and dizziness in ME/CFS patients whenever they stand up. Motivated by this initial success, the researchers from Erlangen would now like to check their diagnosis methods and treatment approach for a larger number of patients suffering from ME/CFS.

Urgent need for action

It is estimated that approximately 250,000 people suffer from ME/CFS in Germany, and numbers are on the rise. “It is particularly young people between the ages of 11 and 40 who are affected by this disease that we still do not really understand. With our research, we aim to do all we can to help those affected. And I am optimistic that we will succeed if university medicine, politicians and the pharmaceutical industry all pull together,” urges Bettina Hohberger. “Until now, we have only been able to help one patient. What we now need are scientific investigations involving many more patients. For this reason, we would like to extend our research into Long Covid to include a clinical study with people suffering from ME/CFS that could give us an initial indication of the mechanisms behind the effects of BC 007 on this condition,” explained Dr. Hohberger.”

[iamonlyone]

12 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Day 14, is she still feeling sick?  I hope all the meds help her get well soon.

Yes, still very congested and coughing and no smell/taste (but I know that can linger a long time). She said the meds are making a positive difference, though! Thank you for your well wishes!

[TexasProud]

18 hours ago, SHP said:

I feel the fatigue deeply and completely understand that. My mother has been very sick the last two years making everything harder. 

 

I am confused by your bolded statement. I am wondering what you mean by experts you know in real life. I personally do not know anyone I would consider an expert and able to give accurately and current information specifically on Covid in my area.

 

Ok, most of the world is not like the Hive who does all of this obscure research and finds all of these "experts" and such that you quote on here.

The experts in my life are the doctors in  my life as well as the doctors my husband knows/we know.  I mean if the doctors you know will not give you accurate advice...then what.  That is what "normal" people listen to. That and what the CDC/government tells you. I am tired of being pulled between this board and what real life tells me. I am just done.  I need to put blocking software on my computer or something cause I can't stop myself sometime. But I am so tired of living online.