Omicron anecdata?

[Pam in CT]

re federal funding for both development of, and deployment of, COVID vaccines

7 minutes ago, kbutton said:

I feel stupid asking, but does the government do all the buying for other vaccines? Is this a thing where if the government doesn't buy them, the makers won't produce enough because it's too risky? What are the barriers to getting a shot and having it paid for by insurance or self-pay? 

It is different from other vaccines, for a number of reasons, including (there are many more)

• COVID erupted so fast and so massively; it was simultaneously a huge risk to the US and the world (not just in terms of direct loss of life, but also to supply chain and Economy!! and way of life) that existing known science didn't know how to deal with. Here and elsewhere, the "right answer" was for multiple teams around the world to simultaneously develop, as fast as they could, multiple vaccine ideas that worked in different ways, before they knew which ones would work and, therefore, which ones would ultimately have any hope of making any kind of return. The free market wouldn't do that; R&D development ordinarily is very slow, very sequenced, and very conscious of "how large is the target market, how will that market pay (in healthcare = insurance), and what other competitors are developing product in the same space."
• COVID erupted so fast that (in the US) there were no insurance provisions for covering *any* treatments or vaccines for it; so vaccine & treatment developers were staring down the prospect of "if we develop, will insurers pay" (not just for vaccines, but also for MCAB and antivirals and any other treatments). US insurers in most cases don't pay for EUA interventions.  There was (and still is) no time for this. Had the Trump Administration *not* agreed to purchase massive volumes of vaccines, they would not have been developed here.  The world would ultimately have gotten there, but the US would have been in line somewhere around where Canada ended up.
• COVID is a highly contagious disease for which there was, before its eruption, any immunity among the population. Its starting point was nothing akin to the starting point of, say, measles in 2022. It cannot be managed if the ~10% of the population that is totally uninsured, and the additional ~20% of the population who is underinsured/ paying out of pocket until they reach financially ruinous catastrophic levels, are limited from getting vaccines (or tests or early treatment) because they don't have the cash to do so.

And that is still more or less where we still are. New variants are still emerging; hopefully the next one will be "milder" but equally possibly it may be "deadlier."

 

Endemic doesn't mean no problem. Malaria is endemic where it's endemic. It's a problem.

[kbutton]

21 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

And that is still more or less where we still are. 

Endemic doesn't mean no problem. Malaria is endemic where it's endemic. It's a problem.

I wasn't sure that was still where we are, hence my question. I thought at some point, we'd be transitioning to vaccine approval and vaccines being paid for in the normal way (some point being undefined). Basically, if the government isn't going to keep paying, I'd like there to be options for people to still get vaccinations (and for people without means to get them even if that pathway is not identical to the current one). I am wondering what the current barriers to that are--some of what I am reading is making it sound like if the government doesn't pay for every single shot, we won't have any shots. That's not a good thing. Is that a real scenario? 

I know why the government was instrumental in purchasing them in the first place. 

I agree completely that endemic covid is still a problem. Are you saying that we're less likely to have shots available for endemic covid? We don't stop having flu shots when we don't have a flu pandemic. 

I am seeing the stage we're in now as a (possible) transition from one approach to another (depending on what the government and general public are willing to do, it could be a necessary transition even if it's not the wisest), and I'd like us to not drop the ball on vaccine availability. If the government is not going to pony up to pay for the shots, how do we get to where the covid vaccine is handled like other vaccines? What is preventing that now?

I hope that makes more sense! 🙂 

[Faith-manor]

I wonder if we couldn't have the states go to buying them for the health department and make it like other vaccines available to the public there, and practitioners and pharmacies buying them and billing insurance. I cannot imagine insurance NOT paying for them since they greatly lower the chances of racking up tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars of medical care when someone has a bad case. 

Hopefully some sort of decent, equitable system will shake out. It is in the nation's best interests to keep vaccines readily available without out of pocket expense or on some sort of sliding scale by income with copay no higher than $20 and maybe always free for kids at the health department even if other service providers are charging a co-pay. Who knows though. It is difficult for me to have much optimism about our political system.

[vonfirmath]

41 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

I wonder if we couldn't have the states go to buying them for the health department and make it like other vaccines available to the public there, and practitioners and pharmacies buying them and billing insurance. I cannot imagine insurance NOT paying for them since they greatly lower the chances of racking up tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars of medical care when someone has a bad case. 

Hopefully some sort of decent, equitable system will shake out. It is in the nation's best interests to keep vaccines readily available without out of pocket expense or on some sort of sliding scale by income with copay no higher than $20 and maybe always free for kids at the health department even if other service providers are charging a co-pay. Who knows though. It is difficult for me to have much optimism about our political system.

Why copay no higher than $20? Our copay every time we go to the doctor is $50. (ouch!) And I hadn't heard a limit on copays before.

 

Edited March 23, 2022 by vonfirmath

[freesia]

1 hour ago, vonfirmath said:

Why copay no higher than $20? Our copay every time we go to the doctor is $50. (ouch!) And I hadn't heard a limit on copays before.

 

In my state there is no copay for a dr visit that is just for certain vaccinations. Flu shots can be gotten at the pharmacy with just your insurance card, too. In my previous Not-a-State ( to quote Farrar) of birth, I know you could, and I did once, get them for free at a clinic. I think Faith’s idea is keeping them affordable. 

[Pam in CT]

re are we really still where we were

1 hour ago, kbutton said:

I wasn't sure that was still where we are, hence my question. I thought at some point, we'd be transitioning to vaccine approval and vaccines being paid for in the normal way (some point being undefined). Basically, if the government isn't going to keep paying, I'd like there to be options for people to still get vaccinations (and for people without means to get them even if that pathway is not identical to the current one). I am wondering what the current barriers to that are--some of what I am reading is making it sound like if the government doesn't pay for every single shot, we won't have any shots. That's not a good thing. Is that a real scenario? 

I know why the government was instrumental in purchasing them in the first place. 

I agree completely that endemic covid is still a problem. Are you saying that we're less likely to have shots available for endemic covid? We don't stop having flu shots when we don't have a flu pandemic. 

I am seeing the stage we're in now as a (possible) transition from one approach to another (depending on what the government and general public are willing to do, it could be a necessary transition even if it's not the wisest), and I'd like us to not drop the ball on vaccine availability. If the government is not going to pony up to pay for the shots, how do we get to where the covid vaccine is handled like other vaccines? What is preventing that now?

I hope that makes more sense! 🙂 

Ah, gotcha.

We're obviously in a better place than we were in March 2020. There's a basic mRNA vaccine framework that reduces the likelihood of worst case; there are antivirals that reduce the likelihood of hospitalization if taken promptly upon early diagnosis; there are a couple of basic treatment protocols that reduce fatalities when folks do require hospitalization.  Two years ago we had no tools in the toolkit other than physical behaviors (isolation, masking, spacing, ventilation). Now we do: that is better.

But. Nearly all of those tools are chasing newly emergent variants as COVID evolves, whack-a-mole style. It is highly likely that new vaccines, new MCAB, new antivirals will still need to go through new cycles of R&D, testing, clinical trials, conditional approval.  We will be living that whack-a-mole chase of how to treat, and try to vaccinate against, evolving new strains for as long as we currently can see.

And. Even the tools (both vaccine and treatment) that do already exist are mostly still under EUA, and thus (in the US) not covered by most insurers.  The federal government could enable Medicare and Medicaid eligibility, but it would (more or less) be up to the states to enact actual payment, which would catapult vaccine funding into the same culture wars as masking and etc, god help us all. And that only gets to how folks insured through Medicare/Medicaid *might* be able to get insurance to cover costs; the process of private insurers would be yet more complicated and politically fraught. And the thing about contagious pandemics is: everyone spreads them, even the uninsured, even the undocumented. However deep our cultural instinct that the undeserving don't deserve free stuff... there is no way to "get past COVID" unless everybody who wants to tamp down transmission is able to do so.

So I guess my take would be, we are definitely in a better place than 2 years ago. And also, we are definitely not in a place where The Free Market can sustain us going forward. Even outside of pandemic conditions, there are all sorts of ways in which what economists call "market failures" limit Free Markets' ability to deliver health care to all, or to enable years-long R&D cycles for new treatments that may or (mostly) may not turn out to work. Pandemic urgency make those problems vastly worse. 

Rural hospitals in low population areas, already financially strained to near-breaking, will be the first to fail when their COVID patients NEED EUA treatments but those treatments are no longer federally funded. What has been a treatment question bounded by staffing constraints (hard enough to manage) suddenly becomes a financial one as well: can we *afford* to treat this patient given that there are no mechanisms for payment.

 

We need another round of COVID funding. We just do. If our legislators, and we the people, can't get our act together and do it, it is more likely than not that we will slide, Chutes & Ladders style, back towards our March 2020 starting point. Call your Senator.

[El...]

Well. We seem to have got covid. Our numbers are very low here. I'm not certain where we caught it, but I suspect it was a party this weekend with 8 couples at a friend's house. All have been notified. Dang it. We are usually very careful, but made an exception based on the low numbers, and wham.

Dh got sick Tuesday and slept about 16 hours straight. His rapid test was positive on Wednesday, and we're waiting for pcr results for him. He's feeling much better today. 

Dd14 was coughing Wednesday, so I took her for a pcr test, too. She slept well and is feeling better today. She's still sniffing. 

Ds10 and I feel just fine.

We're all fully vaxed and boosted as available by age. 

I'm canceling all plans like we've all got it. We won't be spreading it.

What do your guys think? Would you test ds and I? For the data? 

[mommyoffive]

1 hour ago, elroisees said:

Well. We seem to have got covid. Our numbers are very low here. I'm not certain where we caught it, but I suspect it was a party this weekend with 8 couples at a friend's house. All have been notified. Dang it. We are usually very careful, but made an exception based on the low numbers, and wham.

Dh got sick Tuesday and slept about 16 hours straight. His rapid test was positive on Wednesday, and we're waiting for pcr results for him. He's feeling much better today. 

Dd14 was coughing Wednesday, so I took her for a pcr test, too. She slept well and is feeling better today. She's still sniffing. 

Ds10 and I feel just fine.

We're all fully vaxed and boosted as available by age. 

I'm canceling all plans like we've all got it. We won't be spreading it.

What do your guys think? Would you test ds and I? For the data? 

Oh man I am sorry you guys got sick.  I am glad the sick ones seem to be doing better.  Yes, I probably test just because I would want to know. 

[KSera]

4 hours ago, elroisees said:

Well. We seem to have got covid. Our numbers are very low here. I'm not certain where we caught it, but I suspect it was a party this weekend with 8 couples at a friend's house. All have been notified. Dang it. We are usually very careful, but made an exception based on the low numbers, and wham.

Dh got sick Tuesday and slept about 16 hours straight. His rapid test was positive on Wednesday, and we're waiting for pcr results for him. He's feeling much better today. 

Dd14 was coughing Wednesday, so I took her for a pcr test, too. She slept well and is feeling better today. She's still sniffing. 

Ds10 and I feel just fine.

We're all fully vaxed and boosted as available by age. 

I'm canceling all plans like we've all got it. We won't be spreading it.

What do your guys think? Would you test ds and I? For the data? 

Are you isolating from the ones you know have it? I have seen a lot of families who have so much surprisingly been able to avoid omicron spreading in the family by isolating, keeping up good ventilation, and using good masks when necessary (like if an infected person has to leave their room to get to a hallway bathroom or something). 
 

if it were me, the healthy would be isolating and then testing in a couple more days. I’m sorry your family got sick and I hope everyone is better soon!

[El...]

4 minutes ago, KSera said:

Are you isolating from the ones you know have it? I have seen a lot of families who have so much surprisingly been able to avoid omicron spreading in the family by isolating, keeping up good ventilation, and using good masks when necessary (like if an infected person has to leave their room to get to a hallway bathroom or something). 
 

if it were me, the healthy would be isolating and then testing in a couple more days. I’m sorry your family got sick and I hope everyone is better soon!

No... unfortunately I think that ship has sailed. We were all close together for at least a day before we identified the symptoms as covid. It's allergy season!! Blah. 

So we're doing what we can and all isolating together. We're going to be careful not to spread it farther.

I'm cleaning bathrooms, doorknobs, sheets, etc. The windows are open. Everyone is drinking a lot of water and herb tea. We're lucky because we're all in good health with no significant risk factors. Dh is the most at risk due to age, so I'm watching him extra closely. And we're also lucky because it's most likely omicron.

The problem with this plan is that we'll probably get it in series and all have to stay home for a longer time. That's a drag. Dh can work from home, which is extremely nice.

But I'd already shared a bed with dh for two nights before we figured it out! If I'm going to get it, I think it's a done deal. I even had a scratchy throat yesterday, but it's already gone.

Am I nuts? I'm open to suggestions. 

[mommyoffive]

[ktgrok]

4 hours ago, elroisees said:

No... unfortunately I think that ship has sailed. We were all close together for at least a day before we identified the symptoms as covid. It's allergy season!! Blah. 

So we're doing what we can and all isolating together. We're going to be careful not to spread it farther.

I'm cleaning bathrooms, doorknobs, sheets, etc. The windows are open. Everyone is drinking a lot of water and herb tea. We're lucky because we're all in good health with no significant risk factors. Dh is the most at risk due to age, so I'm watching him extra closely. And we're also lucky because it's most likely omicron.

The problem with this plan is that we'll probably get it in series and all have to stay home for a longer time. That's a drag. Dh can work from home, which is extremely nice.

But I'd already shared a bed with dh for two nights before we figured it out! If I'm going to get it, I think it's a done deal. I even had a scratchy throat yesterday, but it's already gone.

Am I nuts? I'm open to suggestions. 

You should still limit contact, to limit viral load. My sister that got long covid/neuro issues held out for over a week before finally coming down with it. That high a viral load over that long meant getting pretty sick. 

[El...]

16 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

You should still limit contact, to limit viral load. My sister that got long covid/neuro issues held out for over a week before finally coming down with it. That high a viral load over that long meant getting pretty sick. 

Thank you.

[HomeAgain]

4 hours ago, elroisees said:

No... unfortunately I think that ship has sailed. We were all close together for at least a day before we identified the symptoms as covid. It's allergy season!! Blah. 

So we're doing what we can and all isolating together. We're going to be careful not to spread it farther.

I'm cleaning bathrooms, doorknobs, sheets, etc. The windows are open. Everyone is drinking a lot of water and herb tea. We're lucky because we're all in good health with no significant risk factors. Dh is the most at risk due to age, so I'm watching him extra closely. And we're also lucky because it's most likely omicron.

The problem with this plan is that we'll probably get it in series and all have to stay home for a longer time. That's a drag. Dh can work from home, which is extremely nice.

But I'd already shared a bed with dh for two nights before we figured it out! If I'm going to get it, I think it's a done deal. I even had a scratchy throat yesterday, but it's already gone.

Am I nuts? I'm open to suggestions. 

DS12 was the only one in our house who got sick, though he masked as soon as he felt symptoms and isolated as soon as the test was positive.

We did everything you are doing, but also put an air purifier near him to help reduce any viral load in the air.

I'm going to say, it took the kid nearly 2 weeks to run through most of the symptoms on the list.  His heart rate continued to be elevated for a while after.  He got sick 2/18, went through isolation through the end of the month.   We're at, what, the 24th of March?  He has yet to get full strength back and just got hit again with another virus that has him down.  His brain fuzziness is still there.  The rest of us managed to avoid getting sick.

I refuse to trust any map now that he has been sick.  His positive test was only reported to the state because we argued with the doctor.  Most of the cases are going undetected outside of home rapid testing so the maps are utterly worthless.

[kbutton]

26 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

You should still limit contact, to limit viral load. My sister that got long covid/neuro issues held out for over a week before finally coming down with it. That high a viral load over that long meant getting pretty sick. 

Along those lines, I would be cautious, but if I thought I might already be exposed, I would probably run our Corsi-Rosenthal box, open windows, etc., and make sure people are masked in public areas. I wouldn't sit all together without ventilation, cuddle on the couch, or share a bed with DH breathing on me, but I probably would put on a movie together while wearing masks and airing out the house. It's miserable to be sick and alone.

We had a brief scare here when DH came down with body aches, etc., but it ended up likely being norovirus (no fever, negative for flu, negative rapid and PCR covid tests, and he had moderately bad GI issues). He'd kissed me goodbye before starting to feel crummy at work, so once the kids were in bed, we both put on masks and did what I described above. When the kids were up, he stayed in a bedroom with the cold air return covered, had his own bath, and masked when he had to traverse the hall. I had my own bedroom as well. 

[kbutton]

3 minutes ago, HomeAgain said:

His positive test was only reported to the state because we argued with the doctor. 

That's terrifying! So many diseases have to be reported...that's nuts!

[HomeAgain]

17 minutes ago, kbutton said:

That's terrifying! So many diseases have to be reported...that's nuts!

Right?  We fought because this is also my kid who is allergic to the vaccine.  He received the the child's dose and blew up like a balloon.  We want everything documented in his record so that if there are any long term effects he has a clear history. 
The doctors are telling people to take a rapid home test first, and if there are any signs of being positive to not bother with a PCR or office visit rapid.  So basically, they don't want any cases being reported that aren't asymptomatic or caught in routine care (like test-to-stay programs).  Our official numbers have plunged. 

[mommyoffive]

1 minute ago, HomeAgain said:

Right?  We fought because this is also my kid who is allergic to the vaccine.  He received the the child's dose and blew up like a balloon.  We want everything documented in his record so that if there are any long term effects he has a clear history. 
The doctors are telling people to take a rapid home test first, and if there are any signs of being positive to not bother with a PCR or office visit rapid.  So basically, they don't want any cases being reported that aren't asymptomatic or caught in routine care (like test-to-stay programs).  Our official numbers have plunged. 

 I haven't ever really trusted the maps 100%, because I know people are not testing, testing at home, or asymptomatic.   But I hope they give you some sort of snapshot of what is going on in your state.  That being said I am still mask wearing everywhere.  I especially don't like the new CDC map.

I am sorry your ds is sick.  And to get something on top of Covid too?  Poor kiddo.  I hope he feels better soon

[Lisa]

News from Mayo Clinic: Breakthrough hospitalizations ‘extremely uncommon’ after COVID-19 immunity, Mayo study finds

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/breakthrough-hospitalizations-extremely-uncommon-after-covid-19-immunity-mayo-study-finds/

[kbutton]

1 hour ago, HomeAgain said:

Right?  We fought because this is also my kid who is allergic to the vaccine.  He received the the child's dose and blew up like a balloon.  We want everything documented in his record so that if there are any long term effects he has a clear history. 
The doctors are telling people to take a rapid home test first, and if there are any signs of being positive to not bother with a PCR or office visit rapid.  So basically, they don't want any cases being reported that aren't asymptomatic or caught in routine care (like test-to-stay programs).  Our official numbers have plunged. 

I know we have local people that prefer to not be a statistic, but I think some areas allow home reports of positive rapid tests. At one point, the larger libraries here had the Binax tests, and they were "proctored" over the internet. Those definitely got reported in our state. 

I am sorry your son is allergic to the vaccine!

[Ausmumof3]

11 hours ago, elroisees said:

Well. We seem to have got covid. Our numbers are very low here. I'm not certain where we caught it, but I suspect it was a party this weekend with 8 couples at a friend's house. All have been notified. Dang it. We are usually very careful, but made an exception based on the low numbers, and wham.

Dh got sick Tuesday and slept about 16 hours straight. His rapid test was positive on Wednesday, and we're waiting for pcr results for him. He's feeling much better today. 

Dd14 was coughing Wednesday, so I took her for a pcr test, too. She slept well and is feeling better today. She's still sniffing. 

Ds10 and I feel just fine.

We're all fully vaxed and boosted as available by age. 

I'm canceling all plans like we've all got it. We won't be spreading it.

What do your guys think? Would you test ds and I? For the data? 

I would test so on the chance that someone gets longer term symptoms you have the proof you had it 

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 I haven't ever really trusted the maps 100%, because I know people are not testing, testing at home, or asymptomatic.   But I hope they give you some sort of snapshot of what is going on in your state.  That being said I am still mask wearing everywhere.  I especially don't like the new CDC map.

I am sorry your ds is sick.  And to get something on top of Covid too?  Poor kiddo.  I hope he feels better soon

I don’t think the US figures make much sense comparing our cases and death rates to yours based on population there has to be a tonne more cases. Unless it’s higher CFR due to less vaccination?

[Acadie]

3 hours ago, ktgrok said:

You should still limit contact, to limit viral load. My sister that got long covid/neuro issues held out for over a week before finally coming down with it. That high a viral load over that long meant getting pretty sick. 

I agree that limiting contact still matters, @elroisees. Dd coughed directly in my face the day before testing positive, when she had the mildest of symptoms. The same day she spent two hours driving with dh and dd19 in the car. The next day, after she tested positive, she isolated in her room, and no one else in the house got sick. 

From what I understand viral load matters for a number of reasons--whether you get sick, how severe the symptoms, and how likely you are to get long Covid. Even though you've had some exposure limiting viral exposure and viral load can still be protective. 

 

[Danae]

2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 I haven't ever really trusted the maps 100%, because I know people are not testing, testing at home, or asymptomatic.   But I hope they give you some sort of snapshot of what is going on in your state.  That being said I am still mask wearing everywhere.  I especially don't like the new CDC map.

I am sorry your ds is sick.  And to get something on top of Covid too?  Poor kiddo.  I hope he feels better soon

That’s why I’m happy my metro area has been publishing the wastewater testing data.  It doesn’t matter who tests, or who reports, everybody poops.

Obviously wouldn’t work as well in a area with a lot of people on septic tanks, though.  

[mommyoffive]

3 minutes ago, Danae said:

That’s why I’m happy my metro area has been publishing the wastewater testing data.  It doesn’t matter who tests, or who reports, everybody poops.

Obviously wouldn’t work as well in a area with a lot of people on septic tanks, though.  

Yep.  I am hoping we don't see a spike or surge.  But this is around me.

'Upticks' of COVID-19 in wastewater concern health officials (wisn.com)

That's especially evident at Milwaukee's Jones Island wastewater facility.

Lab testing showed what DHS officials called a major increase earlier this month.

They observed a 10-fold surge in COVID-19 virus samples in the wastewater.

[Tenaj]

2 hours ago, kbutton said:

At one point, the larger libraries here had the Binax tests, and they were "proctored" over the internet. Those definitely got reported in our state. 

Only if you actually did the proctoring routine.  We used several of these but didn't need "official" results so just downloaded directions from the Binax site and did them with no proctoring.    

Of course, then when we had two positives there was no way to report those findings without getting an additional test done.

Edited March 25, 2022 by Tenaj

[mommyoffive]

Another mRNA booster or not? - Your Local Epidemiologist (substack.com)

[mommyoffive]

Cornell University reports indications of 'substantial prevalence' of COVID on campus (msn.com)

[YaelAldrich]

1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

Cornell University reports indications of 'substantial prevalence' of COVID on campus (msn.com)

My husband's university stopped their dashboard of covid activity on campus but he keeps getting multiple students calling in sick and going to class on Zoom.  

[ktgrok]

13 hours ago, Tenaj said:

Only if you actually did the proctoring routine.  We used several of these but didn't need "official" results so just downloaded directions from the Binax site and did them with no proctoring.    

Of course, then when we had two positives there was no way to report those findings without getting an additional test done.

Yup.

That said, I figure the totals reported are WAY undercounted, but likely consistently undercounted, so i can at least see the trends, you know?

[mommyoffive]

Omicron deaths of J&J recipients higher than other vaccinated Americans (msn.com)

[mommyoffive]

[kristin0713]

I really want to know about natural immunity. So many people had omicron over the winter. 

[regentrude]

3 hours ago, YaelAldrich said:

My husband's university stopped their dashboard of covid activity on campus but he keeps getting multiple students calling in sick and going to class on Zoom.  

Our campus numbers (which are still available on public dashboard) have exceeded those of week 3 of the semester in late January/early Feb.

[PaxEtLux]

1 hour ago, kristin0713 said:

I really want to know about natural immunity. So many people had omicron over the winter. 

 

A friend of mine recently went on an airplane trip, and was talking with a random stranger on the plane who said that she was (proudly) not vaccinated, and had gotten Covid-19 three times already (!) Obviously, an anecdote, but I'm pretty skeptical about natural and herd immunity, especially as the virus continues to mutate.

Edited March 25, 2022 by PaxEtLux

[Pam in CT]

re softness of # cases and (therefore) positivity data:

4 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Yup.

That said, I figure the totals reported are WAY undercounted, but likely consistently undercounted, so i can at least see the trends, you know?

I figure that's right. The only HARD numbers that are comparable across states is hospitalizations and deaths. There's a lot more testing in NYC (where there's a kiosk on every corner) than in my small town in CT, and a lot more testing in my small town in CT than in a corresponding-size town in (say) GA where there's much less availability of, and interest in, testing. So what "yellow" on the map means isn't apples-to-apples across the country.

But so long as the testing regimens are fairly consistent *within* NYC and my town and the corresponding town in (say) GA, the changing of the colors does illustrate week-on-week trends.

 

re week-on-week trends

2 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

which look to me like the coastal international airport centers where prior waves have begun, are beginning anew.

[freesia]

3 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

re softness of # cases and (therefore) positivity data:

I figure that's right. The only HARD numbers that are comparable across states is hospitalizations and deaths. There's a lot more testing in NYC (where there's a kiosk on every corner) than in my small town in CT, and a lot more testing in my small town in CT than in a corresponding-size town in (say) GA where there's much less availability of, and interest in, testing. So what "yellow" on the map means isn't apples-to-apples across the country.

But so long as the testing regimens are fairly consistent *within* NYC and my town and the corresponding town in (say) GA, the changing of the colors does illustrate week-on-week trends.

 

re week-on-week trends

which look to me like the coastal international airport centers where prior waves have begun, are beginning anew.

Yes, I see the slight upward trend in NY and CT numbers. I’m hoping between the weather and Omicron B1 it will just be a small wave. 

[Pam in CT]

9 minutes ago, freesia said:

Yes, I see the slight upward trend in NY and CT numbers. I’m hoping between the weather and Omicron B1 it will just be a small wave. 

And also CA.  CA and greater NYC area seem to be first hit each time.

But concur re weather being on our side this time.

So tired of dialing up and down and up and down and up and down again.

[freesia]

1 minute ago, Pam in CT said:

And also CA.  CA and greater NYC area seem to be first hit each time.

But concur re weather being on our side this time.

So tired of dialing up and down and up and down and up and down again.

Oh, yeah. I meant I follow NY and CT bc we have activities in both states. I’m tired of it, too. It’s so tempting to just ignore that it’s happening. Ugh 😩 

[Arcadia]

22 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

And also CA.  CA and greater NYC area seem to be first hit each time.

But concur re weather being on our side this time.

So tired of dialing up and down and up and down and up and down again.

My county says wastewater treatment numbers are up but positive case numbers are stable. In my county, Palo Alto wastewater has the worst results. 

[Ausmumof3]

3 hours ago, kristin0713 said:

I really want to know about natural immunity. So many people had omicron over the winter. 

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2201607
 

You might find this interesting though a bit disheartening. I think they only looked at antibody not Tcell response

“Despite certain limitations of this study, including the small sample size and retrospective study design (Table S7), our data support the hypothesis that the omicron BA.1 variant is an extremely potent immune-escape variant that shows little cross-reactivity with the earlier variants. Therefore, unvaccinated persons who are infected with the omicron BA.1 variant only (without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection) might not be sufficiently protected against infection with a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than omicron BA.1; for full protection, vaccination is warranted.”

 

[kristin0713]

3 hours ago, PaxEtLux said:

 

A friend of mine recently went on an airplane trip, and was talking with a random stranger on the plane who said that she was (proudly) not vaccinated, and had gotten Covid-19 three times already (!) Obviously, an anecdote, but I'm pretty skeptical about natural and herd immunity, especially as the virus continues to mutate.

So, my friend’s DH was vaccinated, got delta over the summer which the rest of the fam did not get from him, got boosted, then the family all got omicron and he also got it from them. So one person’s case might be a case of that person just not developing immunity no matter what. 
 

 

41 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2201607
 

You might find this interesting though a bit disheartening. I think they only looked at antibody not Tcell response

“Despite certain limitations of this study, including the small sample size and retrospective study design (Table S7), our data support the hypothesis that the omicron BA.1 variant is an extremely potent immune-escape variant that shows little cross-reactivity with the earlier variants. Therefore, unvaccinated persons who are infected with the omicron BA.1 variant only (without previous SARS-CoV-2 infection) might not be sufficiently protected against infection with a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than omicron BA.1; for full protection, vaccination is warranted.”

 

But what about vaccinated plus infection? 

[Katy]

7 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Omicron deaths of J&J recipients higher than other vaccinated Americans (msn.com)

That’s weird. DH sent me something last week that said Omicron breakthrough infections were far less likely with J&J than the other shots. So either you’re less likely to get sick but more likely to die if you do get sick or something is skewing the data. 

[Ausmumof3]

1 hour ago, kristin0713 said:

So, my friend’s DH was vaccinated, got delta over the summer which the rest of the fam did not get from him, got boosted, then the family all got omicron and he also got it from them. So one person’s case might be a case of that person just not developing immunity no matter what. 
 

 

But what about vaccinated plus infection? 

It does have some information on that but it’s a pretty small study 

[Mom_to3]

We are definitely on the way back up in some regions of the country. In my area, wastewater and cases are up. The UK and some places in Europe have been a mess with BA2 with overwhelmed hopsitals, absences in schools etc, even though they had large BA1 waves (in the UK, hospitalization are up quite a bit, and deaths have just started increasing sharply as well). I just pray that weather will be enough to make a difference here. I am not confident. And with funding for treatment and testing stopping, we won't have the tools available to confront this wave.

As a little rant, I don't see why the CDC is not revoking their changes to mask recommendations, which were issued with the premise that we had test and treat freely and widely available for future waves. In regions where cases are clearly heading back up, as in mine, masks should be going up...right now.

 

[wathe]

6 hours ago, Pam in CT said:

The only HARD numbers that are comparable across states is hospitalizations and deaths.

Not even.  The way hospitalizations are recorded (due to covid, with covid, incidental covid) is a political game that my province has been playing.  Same with deaths.

The only true hard number will be excess deaths.  Sadly, they take time to compile.

 

Edited:  should have read the way hospitalizations are recorded, not the way deaths are recorded.

Edited March 26, 2022 by wathe

[Laura Corin]

6 hours ago, wathe said:

Not even.  The way hospitalizations are recorded (due to covid, with covid, incidental covid) is a political game that my province has been playing.  Same with deaths.

The only true hard number will be excess deaths.  Sadly, they take time to compile.

 

Edited:  should have read the way hospitalizations are recorded, not the way deaths are recorded.

In the Omicron waves, excess deaths so far seem tightly related to vaccination levels in vulnerable groups in a country. The data on rates of Long Covid after the lifting of restrictions will unfortunately come way too late.

[Ausmumof3]

8 hours ago, Katy said:

That’s weird. DH sent me something last week that said Omicron breakthrough infections were far less likely with J&J than the other shots. So either you’re less likely to get sick but more likely to die if you do get sick or something is skewing the data. 

I was thinking this! I was sure I had just seen a study showing J&J was better 

[Laura Corin]

54 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I was thinking this! I was sure I had just seen a study showing J&J was better 

I hope that means I have super powers - AZ two jabs, so similar technology to J&J, then Pfizer booster 

[wathe]

Mask mandates were lifted here Monday.

Local wastewater on today's dashboard:

This is not good.

Edited March 27, 2022 by wathe